TY  - JOUR
U1  - Zeitschriftenartikel, wissenschaftlich - begutachtet (reviewed)
A1  - Brand, Bernhard
A1  - Blok, Kornelis
T1  - Renewable energy perspectives for the North African electricity systems : a comparative analysis of model-based scenario studies
N2  - Prospects for the integration of power markets and the expansion of renewable energy have recently triggered a number of publications dealing with transformation scenarios of the North African electricity systems. This paper compares five studies using economic electricity supply- and demand models to assess possible development pathways of the North African power systems from today until 2030 and 2050. The analysis shows that distinct modeling methodologies as well as different approaches to scenario design and parameter assumptions can strongly influence the studies' results, leading to very heterogenous projections of North Africa's power generation structures as well as the patterns of electricity exchange with other regions, like Europe. Common findings of the studies are that the surplus costs of capital-intensive renewable energy expansion in North Africa can in most cases be offset by avoided fuel costs and avoided investments in conventional power plants. All studies further agree that increased transnational cooperation, notably in terms of market integration and cross-border power exchanges, can bring about important economic advantages for the North African power sector. Renewable energy expansion could also drive electricity exports to Europe, but in integrated power market schemes, such exports only become viable with a very high share of renewable energy exceeding 60% of the North African power demand.
T2  - Energy strategy reviews
VL  - 6
Y1  - 2015
UN  - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bsz:wup4-opus-56720
U6  - https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2014.11.002
DO  - https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2014.11.002
SP  - 1
EP  - 11
ER  -