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Predicting the material footprint in Germany between 2015 and 2020 via seasonally decomposed autoregressive and exponential smoothing algorithms

  • Recent research on the natural resource use of private consumption suggests a sustainable Material Footprint of 8 tons per capita by 2050 in industrialised countries. We analyse the Material Footprint in Germany from 2015 to 2020 in order to test whether the Material Footprint decreases accordingly. We studied the Material Footprint of 113,559 users of an online footprint calculator and predicted the Material Footprint by seasonally decomposed autoregressive (STL-ARIMA) and exponential smoothing (STL-ETS) algorithms. We find a relatively stable Material Footprint for private consumption. The overall Material Footprint decreased by 0.4% per year between 2015 and 2020 on average. The predictions do not suggest that the Material Footprint ofRecent research on the natural resource use of private consumption suggests a sustainable Material Footprint of 8 tons per capita by 2050 in industrialised countries. We analyse the Material Footprint in Germany from 2015 to 2020 in order to test whether the Material Footprint decreases accordingly. We studied the Material Footprint of 113,559 users of an online footprint calculator and predicted the Material Footprint by seasonally decomposed autoregressive (STL-ARIMA) and exponential smoothing (STL-ETS) algorithms. We find a relatively stable Material Footprint for private consumption. The overall Material Footprint decreased by 0.4% per year between 2015 and 2020 on average. The predictions do not suggest that the Material Footprint of private consumption follows the reduction path of 3.3% per year that will lead to the sustainable consumption of natural resourceshow moreshow less

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Metadaten
Document Type:Peer-Reviewed Article
Author:Johannes Buhl, Christa Liedtke, Sebastian Schuster, Katrin Bienge
URN (citable link):https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:bsz:wup4-opus-76227
Year of Publication:2020
Language:English
Source Title (English):Resources
DOI:https://doi.org/10.3390/resources9110125
Volume:9
Issue:11
Division:Nachhaltiges Produzieren und Konsumieren
Dewey Decimal Classification:600 Technik, Medizin, angewandte Wissenschaften
OpenAIRE:OpenAIRE
Licence:License LogoCreative Commons - CC BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International