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Course change: navigating urban passenger transport toward sustainability through modal shift

  • Staying within the 2 °C (preferably 1.5 °C) limit requires fast and fundamental system changes, also in urban passenger transport. Shifting car traffic to environmentally friendly transport modes is one central strategy to make urban transport more sustainable and climate friendly. However, in most cities car use remains high. Therefore, this paper analyzes what course change is needed regarding direction, scale and speed of change for urban sustainability and climate protection reasons. The paper analyzes the role of modal shift as a strategy in itself and in relation to land-use (avoid) and efficiency (improve) measures. The paper draws on insights from European frontrunning cities and explorative forecasting scenarios calculated with theStaying within the 2 °C (preferably 1.5 °C) limit requires fast and fundamental system changes, also in urban passenger transport. Shifting car traffic to environmentally friendly transport modes is one central strategy to make urban transport more sustainable and climate friendly. However, in most cities car use remains high. Therefore, this paper analyzes what course change is needed regarding direction, scale and speed of change for urban sustainability and climate protection reasons. The paper analyzes the role of modal shift as a strategy in itself and in relation to land-use (avoid) and efficiency (improve) measures. The paper draws on insights from European frontrunning cities and explorative forecasting scenarios calculated with the sophisticated integrated land-use transport model "Ruhr Region 2050". The paper suggests that a significant reduction of urban car use is needed (direction) that roughly equals a fast halving of car use (scale), which has proven feasible under the current socio-political conditions by annual reduction rates of 0.5 to 1.5 percentage points of the trip-based modal share of car use (speed). Significantly reducing car use requires comprehensive and high-intensive measures that go far beyond usual practices. Modal shift measures need to play a crucial role in integrated approaches with land-use (avoid) and efficiency (improve) measures because they have the potential to significantly reduce car use and CO2 emissions and because they can produce comparatively fast effects - which makes modal shift measures first aid approaches to achieve a fast "bending of the curve" of excessive car use and growing CO2 emissions.show moreshow less

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Metadaten
Document Type:Peer-Reviewed Article
Author:Miriam Müller, Oscar Reutter
URN (citable link):https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:bsz:wup4-opus-77605
DOI (citable link):https://doi.org/10.1080/15568318.2021.1919796
Year of Publication:2022
Language:English
Source Title (English):International journal of sustainable transportation
Volume:16
Issue:8
First Page:719
Last Page:743
Divisions:Energie-, Verkehrs- und Klimapolitik
Dewey Decimal Classification:380 Handel, Kommunikation, Verkehr
OpenAIRE:OpenAIRE
Licence:License LogoCreative Commons - CC BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International