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Differentiation of countries' future commitments in a post-2012 climate regime : an assessment of the "South North Dialogue" proposal

  • The "South-North Dialogue" Proposal, developed by researchers from developing and industrialised countries, outlined equitable approaches to mitigation. These approaches were based on the criteria of responsibility, capability and potential to mitigate, and include deep cuts in industrialised (Annex I) countries and differentiated mitigation commitments for developing countries. This paper quantitatively analyses the implications of the proposal for countries' emissions and costs. The analysis focuses on a "political willingness" scenario and four stabilisation scenarios. The analysis shows that stringent stabilisation targets imply that many developing countries would have to take on quantitative mitigation obligations by 2030, even whenThe "South-North Dialogue" Proposal, developed by researchers from developing and industrialised countries, outlined equitable approaches to mitigation. These approaches were based on the criteria of responsibility, capability and potential to mitigate, and include deep cuts in industrialised (Annex I) countries and differentiated mitigation commitments for developing countries. This paper quantitatively analyses the implications of the proposal for countries' emissions and costs. The analysis focuses on a "political willingness" scenario and four stabilisation scenarios. The analysis shows that stringent stabilisation targets imply that many developing countries would have to take on quantitative mitigation obligations by 2030, even when the Annex I countries take on ambitious mitigation commitments far beyond the Kyoto obligations. The "political willingness scenario" will probably not suffice to limit a warming of the Earth's atmosphere to below 2 °C.show moreshow less

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Metadaten
Document Type:Peer-Reviewed Article
Author:Michel G. J. den Elzen, Niklas Höhne, Bernd Brouns, Harald Winkler, Hermann E. Ott
DOI (citable link):https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2006.10.009
Year of Publication:2007
Language:English
Source Title (English):Environmental science & policy
Volume:10
Issue:3
First Page:185
Last Page:203
Divisions:Präsidialbereich
Dewey Decimal Classification:320 Politik