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Advances in energy forecasting models based on engineering economics

  • New energy efficiency policies have been introduced around the world. Historically, most energy models were reasonably equipped to assess the impact of classical policies, such as a subsidy or change in taxation. However, these tools are often insufficient to assess the impact of alternative policy instruments. We evaluate the so-called engineering economic models used to assess future industrial energy use. Engineering economic models include the level of detail commonly needed to model the new types of policies considered. We explore approaches to improve the realism and policy relevance of engineering economic modeling frameworks. We also explore solutions to strengthen the policy usefulness of engineering economic analysis that can beNew energy efficiency policies have been introduced around the world. Historically, most energy models were reasonably equipped to assess the impact of classical policies, such as a subsidy or change in taxation. However, these tools are often insufficient to assess the impact of alternative policy instruments. We evaluate the so-called engineering economic models used to assess future industrial energy use. Engineering economic models include the level of detail commonly needed to model the new types of policies considered. We explore approaches to improve the realism and policy relevance of engineering economic modeling frameworks. We also explore solutions to strengthen the policy usefulness of engineering economic analysis that can be built from a framework of multidisciplinary cooperation. The review discusses the main modeling approaches currently used and evaluates the weaknesses in current models. We focus on the needs to further improve the models. We identify research priorities for the modeling framework, technology representation in models, policy evaluation, and modeling of decision-making behavior.show moreshow less

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Metadaten
Document Type:Peer-Reviewed Article
Author:Ernst Worrell, Stephan Ramesohl, Gale Boyd
Year of Publication:2004
Language:English
Source Title (English):Annual review of environment and resources
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.energy.29.062403.102042
Volume:29
First Page:345
Last Page:381
Division:Zukünftige Energie- und Mobilitätsstrukturen
Dewey Decimal Classification:330 Wirtschaft