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Renewable energy futures : targets, scenarios and pathways

  • Scenarios for the future of renewable energy through 2050 are reviewed to explore how much renewable energy is considered possible or desirable and to inform policymaking. Existing policy targets for 2010 and 2020 are also reviewed for comparison. Common indicators are shares of primary energy, electricity, heat, and transport fuels from renewables. Global, Europe-wide, and country-specific scenarios show 10% to 50% shares of primary energy from renewables by 2050. By 2020, many targets and scenarios show 20% to 35% share of electricity from renewables, increasing to the range 50% to 80% by 2050 under the highest scenarios. Carbon-constrained scenarios for stabilization of emissions or atmospheric concentration depict trade-offs betweenScenarios for the future of renewable energy through 2050 are reviewed to explore how much renewable energy is considered possible or desirable and to inform policymaking. Existing policy targets for 2010 and 2020 are also reviewed for comparison. Common indicators are shares of primary energy, electricity, heat, and transport fuels from renewables. Global, Europe-wide, and country-specific scenarios show 10% to 50% shares of primary energy from renewables by 2050. By 2020, many targets and scenarios show 20% to 35% share of electricity from renewables, increasing to the range 50% to 80% by 2050 under the highest scenarios. Carbon-constrained scenarios for stabilization of emissions or atmospheric concentration depict trade-offs between renewables, nuclear power, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) from coal, most with high energy efficiency. Scenario outcomes differ depending on degree of future policy action, fuel prices, carbon prices, technology cost reductions, and aggregate energy demand, with resource constraints mainly for biomass and biofuels.show moreshow less

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Metadaten
Document Type:Peer-Reviewed Article
Author:Eric Martinot, Carmen Dienst, Liu Weiliang, Chai Qimin
Year of Publication:2007
Language:English
Source Title (English):Annual review of environment and resources
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.energy.32.080106.133554
Volume:32
First Page:205
Last Page:239
Division:Zukünftige Energie- und Mobilitätsstrukturen
Dewey Decimal Classification:600 Technik, Medizin, angewandte Wissenschaften