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Energy systems across the globe are going through a radical transformation as a result of technological and institutional changes, depletion of fossil fuel resources, and climate change. At the local level, increasing distributed energy resources requires that the centralized energy systems be re-organized. In this paper, the concept of Integrated community energy systems (ICESs) is presented as a modern development to re-organize local energy systems to integrate distributed energy resources and engage local communities. Local energy systems such as ICESs not only ensure self-provision of energy but also provide essential system services to the larger energy system. In this regard, a comparison of different energy system integration option is provided. We review the current energy trends and the associated technological, socio-economic, environmental and institutional issues shaping the development of ICESs. These systems can be applied to both developed and developing countries, however, their objectives, business models as well as composition differs. ICESs can be accepted by different actors such as local governments, communities, energy suppliers and system operators as an effective means to achieve sustainability and thereby will have significant roles in future energy systems.
Facing the uncertainty of CO2 storage capacity in China by developing different storage scenarios
(2016)
China is very active in the research and development of CO2 capture and storage technologies (CCS). However, existing estimates for CO2 storage capacity are very uncertain. This uncertainty is due to limited geological knowledge, a lack of large-scale research on CO2 injection, and different assessment approaches and parameter settings. Hence storage scenarios represent a method that can be used by policy makers to demonstrate the range of possible storage capacity developments, to help interpret uncertain results and to identify the limitations of existing assessments. In this paper, three storage scenarios are developed for China by evaluating China-wide studies supplemented with more detailed site- and basin-specific assessments. It is estimated that the greatest storage potential can be found in deep saline aquifers. Oil and gas fields may also be used. Coal seams are only included in the highest storage scenario. In total, the scenarios presented demonstrate that China has an effective storage capacity of between 65 and 1551 Gt of CO2. Furthermore, the authors emphasise a need for action to harmonise storage capacity assessment approaches due to the uncertainties involved in the capacity assessments analysed in this study.
The climate impact of the iron and steel industry can be mitigated through increased energy efficiency, emission efficiency, material efficiency, and product use efficiency resulting in reduced product demand. For achieving ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation targets in this sector all measures could become necessary. The current paper focuses on one of those four key measures: emission efficiency via innovative primary steelmaking technologies. After analysing their techno-economical potential until 2100 in part A of this publication, the current research broadens the evaluation scope for the crucial year 2050, based on a Multicriteria-Analysis (MCA). 12 criteria from five different categories ("technology", "society and politics", "economy", "safety and vulnerability" and "ecology") are used to assess the same four future steelmaking technologies in a systematic and holistic way in Germany, as one possible location. The technologies in focus are the blast furnace route (BF-BOF), blast furnace with carbon capture and storage (BF-CCS), hydrogen direct reduction (H-DR), and iron ore electrolysis (EW). These four technologies have been selected, as explained in part A of this paper, because they are the most commonly discussed technological options under discussion by policymakers and the iron and steel industry. The results of the current work should provide decision makers in industry and government with a long-term guidance on technological choices.
In 2050 the MCA shows significantly higher preference scores for the two innovative routes H-DR and EW compared to the blast furnace based routes. The main reasons being higher scores in the economical and environmental criteria. BF-CCS shows its greatest weakness in the social acceptance and the safety and vulnerability criteria. BF-BOF has the lowest economy and ecology score of all assessed routes, which is due to the projected high cost for carbon dioxide emission and increasing prices for fossil fuels. A first indicative trend assessment from today towards 2050 shows that H-DR is the preferred MCA option from today on.
Three exemplary weighting distributions (representing the perspectives of the steel industry, environmental organisations and the government), used to simulate different stakeholder angle of view, don't have a strong influence on the overall evaluation of the steelmaking routes. The results remain very similar, with the highest scores for the innovative routes (H-DR and EW). This leads to the conclusion that EW and in particular H-DR can be identified as the preferred future steelmaking technology across different perspectives.
Specific innovation efforts and dedicated programs are necessary to minimize the time until marketability and to share the development burden. The similarity of the MCA results from different perspectives indicates a great opportunity to reach a political consensus and to work together towards a common future goal. Regarding the pressing time horizon a concentrated engagement for one (or few) technological choices would be highly recommended.
Prospects of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in China's power sector : an integrated assessment
(2015)
Objective: The aim of the present article is to conduct an integrated assessment in order to explore whether CCS could be a viable technological option for significantly reducing future CO2 emissions in China. Methods: In this paper, an integrated approach covering five assessment dimensions is chosen. Each dimension is investigated using specific methods (graphical abstract). Results: The most crucial precondition that must be met is a reliable storage capacity assessment based on site-specific geological data. Our projection of different trends of coal-based power plant capacities up to 2050 ranges between 34 and 221 Gt of CO2 that may be captured from coal-fired power plants to be built by 2050. If very optimistic assumptions about the country’s CO2 storage potential are applied, 192 Gt of CO2 could theoretically be stored as a result of matching these sources with suitable sinks. If a cautious approach is taken, this figure falls to 29 Gt of CO2. In practice, this potential will decrease further with the impact of technical, legal, economic and social acceptance factors. Further constraints may be the delayed commercial availability of CCS in China; a significant barrier to achieving the economic viability of CCS due to a currently non-existing nation-wide CO2 pricing scheme that generates a sufficiently strong price signal; an expected life-cycle reduction rate of the power plant's greenhouse gas emissions of 59-60%; and an increase in most other negative environmental and social impacts. Conclusion and practice implications: Most experts expect a striking dominance of coal-fired power generation in the country's electricity sector, even if the recent trend towards a flattened deployment of coal capacity and reduced annual growth rates of coal-fired generation proves to be true in the future. In order to reduce fossil fuel-related CO2 emissions to a level that would be consistent with the long-term climate protection target of the international community to which China is increasingly committing itself, this option may require the introduction of CCS. However, a precondition for opting for CCS would be finding robust solutions to the constraints highlighted in this article. Furthermore, a comparison with other low-carbon technology options may be useful in drawing completely valid conclusions on the economic, ecological and social viability of CCS in a low-carbon policy environment. The assessment dimensions should be integrated into macro-economic optimisation models by combining qualitative with quantitative modelling, and the flexible operation of CCS power plants should be analysed in view of a possible role of CCS for balancing fluctuating renewable energies.
Heating behavior of households is key for reducing domestic energy demand and mitigating climate change. Recently, various technical devices have been developed, providing households with feedback on their heating behavior and supporting energy conservation behavior.
The impact of such devices on overall energy consumption depends on (1) the impact of a device within a household, (2) the diffusion of devices to other households and the number of adopters, and (3) the diffusion of the induced behavioral change beyond these households. While the first two processes are currently established in assessments of sustainable household devices, we suggest that adding behavior diffusion is essential when assessing devices that explicitly target behavioral change. We therefore propose an assessment framework that includes all three processes. We implement this framework in an agent-based model by combining two existing simulation models to explore the effect of adding behavior diffusion. In three simulation experiments, we identify two mechanisms by which behavior diffusion (1) spreads the effect of such devices from adopters to non-adopters and (2) increases the average speed of behavioral change of households. From these results we conclude that behavior diffusion should be included in assessments of behavior-changing feedback devices.
Societal transitions involve multiple actors, changes in institutions, values and technologies, and interactions across multiple sectors and scales. Given this complexity, this paper takes on the view that the societal transitions research field would benefit from the further maturation and broader uptake of modelling approaches. This paper shows how modelling can enhance the understanding of and support stakeholders to steer societal transitions. It discusses the benefits modelling provides for studying large societal systems and elaborates on different ways models can be used for transitions studies. Two model applications are presented in some detail to illustrate the benefits. Then, limitations of modelling societal transitions are discussed, which leads to an agenda for future activities: (1) better cooperation in the development of dynamic models, (2) stronger interaction with other transition scholars and stakeholders, and (3) use of additional modelling approaches that we think are relevant to and largely unexplored in transitions studies.
Among the factors that decelerate progress of CCS demonstration and deployment is the lack of public acceptance of local projects in Germany as well as in other countries. The study presented here aims to take the issue of public CCS perceptions further by empirically investigating the relevance of different specifications of the three main steps of the CCS chain, i.e. capture, transport and storage. An experimental approach is chosen and applied in an online survey with a representative sample from Germany with 1830 participants. With regard to possible CO2 sources we varied whether the CO2 of a specific setting is captured i) as part of an energy-intensive industry process (e.g. production of steel or cement), ii) from a power plant running on biomass, or iii) a coal-fired power plant. For transport, half of the settings described made reference to transport of CO2 via pipelines, the other half did not provide information about transport. With regard to storage the setting descriptions i) either explained that CO2 can be stored in saline aquifers, ii) can be used to enhance gas production from an emptying natural gas field or iii) can be stored in a depleted natural gas field. We find that overall the average of the ratings for perception of the settings fall into the neutral part of the answering scale. If the source of CO2 is a coal-fired power plant the setting is perceived less positively than if it includes biomass or industry. A significant interaction effect between transport and storage specifications is observed. This points out that storage in saline aquifers is perceived more negatively than a combination with enhanced gas recovery while storage in a depleted natural gas field is rated less positively if a pipeline is mentioned and more positively if no transport option is mentioned.
The results presented in this article illustrate how the local public was informed on specific Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) projects by regional newspapers in Germany. The analyzed articles were published in four daily newspapers within the German regions where four CO2 onshore storage projects took place or have been planned. The articles were published between 2007 and 2011. In total, 1,115 newspaper articles about the four CO2 onshore storage projects were gathered and analyzed both qualitatively and quantitatively. Our results showed that the regional media coverage of CCS projects in Germany reached peaks in 2009 and 2010. The main topics changed within the media coverage and it is worth mentioning to what extent the media coverage of CCS disregarded topics with regard to economic, technical, ecological or scientific aspects on CCS. The overall evaluation of CCS within the articles is negative. While commercial CCS projects received more negative evaluation across newspaper articles; opinions about the research and industry project Ketzin were more neutral.
The present study investigates and compares the public perception of CO2 offshore storage, CO2 onshore storage and CO2 transport via pipeline in Germany nationwide and in two coastal regions. For this purpose, three representative surveys were carried out and analyzed with the methods of descriptive statistics and ordinal regressions. The results of our descriptive statistical analyses show clear regional differences with regard to self-reported awareness, factual knowledge, risk perceptions and general attitudes towards CO2 offshore/onshore storage and CO2 transport via pipeline. With regard to the public perception of the two storage options - offshore and onshore - no major differences could be identified: both are hardly accepted by the German public. In comparison to CO2 offshore storage/CO2 onshore storage, the attitudes towards CO2 transport via pipeline were perceptibly more positive in all regions. Our regression analyses revealed that the perceptions of the personal and societal risks of CO2 transport via pipeline/CO2 offshore storage/CO2 onshore storage as well as the perceptions of the personal and societal benefits of CCS are the most important direct determinants of general attitudes towards CO2 transport via pipeline, CO2 offshore storage and CO2 onshore storage.
Urbanization and climate change are amongst the greatest challenges of the 21st century. In the "Low Carbon Future Cities" project (LCFC), three important problem dimensions are analysed: current and future GHG emissions and their mitigation (up to 2050); resource use and material flows; and vulnerability to climate change.
The industrial city of Wuxi has been the Chinese pilot city of the project. To establish the pathway for a low carbon future, it is crucial to understand the current situation and possible future developments. The paper presents the key results of the status quo analysis and the future scenario analysis carried out for Wuxi. Two scenarios are outlined. The Current Policy Scenario (CPS) shows the current most likely development in the area of energy demand and GHG emissions until 2050. Whereas the extra low carbon scenario (ELCS) assumes a significantly more ambitious implementation, it combines a market introduction of best available technologies with substantial behavioural change. All scenarios are composed of sub-scenarios for the selected key sectors.
Looking at the per capita emissions in Wuxi, the current levels are already high at around 12 tonnes CO2 per capita compared to Western European cities. Although Wuxi has developed a low carbon plan, the projected results under current policies (CPS) show that the total emissions would increase to 23.6 tonnes CO2 per capita by 2050. If the ELCS pathway was to be adopted, these CO2 emission levels could be reduced to 6.4 tonnes per capita by 2050.
Lessons for model use in transition research : a survey and comparison with other research areas
(2015)
The use of models to study the dynamics of transitions is challenging because of several aspects of transitions, notably complexity, multi-domain and multi-level interactions. These challenges are shared by other research areas that extensively make use of models. In this article we survey experiences and methodological approaches developed in the research areas of social-ecological modeling, integrated assessment, and environmental modeling, and derive lessons to be learnt for model use in transition studies. In order to account for specific challenges associated with different kinds of model applications we classify models according to their uses: for understanding transitions, for providing case-specific policy advice, and for facilitating stakeholder processes. The assessment reveals promising research directions for transition modeling, such as model-to-model analysis, pattern-oriented modeling, advanced sensitivity analysis, development of a shared conceptual framework, and use of modeling protocols.
Prospects for the integration of power markets and the expansion of renewable energy have recently triggered a number of publications dealing with transformation scenarios of the North African electricity systems. This paper compares five studies using economic electricity supply- and demand models to assess possible development pathways of the North African power systems from today until 2030 and 2050. The analysis shows that distinct modeling methodologies as well as different approaches to scenario design and parameter assumptions can strongly influence the studies' results, leading to very heterogenous projections of North Africa's power generation structures as well as the patterns of electricity exchange with other regions, like Europe. Common findings of the studies are that the surplus costs of capital-intensive renewable energy expansion in North Africa can in most cases be offset by avoided fuel costs and avoided investments in conventional power plants. All studies further agree that increased transnational cooperation, notably in terms of market integration and cross-border power exchanges, can bring about important economic advantages for the North African power sector. Renewable energy expansion could also drive electricity exports to Europe, but in integrated power market schemes, such exports only become viable with a very high share of renewable energy exceeding 60% of the North African power demand.
At current primary steel production levels, the iron and steel industry will fail to meet the 80% emission reduction target without introduction of breakthrough technologies (Wörtler et al., 2013: 19). The current research analyses the technical and economical long-term potential of innovative primary steel production technologies in Germany throughout 2100. Techno-economic models are used to simulate three innovative ore-based steelmaking routes verses the reference blast furnace route (BF-BOF). The innovative routes in focus are blast furnace with CCS (BF-CCS), hydrogen direct reduction (H-DR), and iron ore electrolysis (EW). Energy and mass flows for the production of one tonne of crude steel (CS) are combined with hypothetical price, cost, and revenue data to evaluate the production routes economically, technically, and environmentally. This is a purely theoretical analysis and hence further external factors that may influence practical implementation or profitability are not considered.
Different future developments are considered by using three scenarios, representing an ambitious, a moderate, and a conservative transformation of the German energy sector. In general, looking into the future bares various uncertainties which should be reflected in a suitable manner.
According to the present scenario analysis, chances are that with rising prices for coal and CO2 allowances BF-BOF and even BF-CCS become unprofitable by mid-century. With a high share of renewable energy sources and high prices for CO2 allowances, H-DR and EW become economically attractive in the second half of the current century, when BF-based routes are long unprofitable. Energy and raw material efficiency is significantly higher for H-DR and EW and furthermore, the 80% reduction target by 2050 can be achieved in the ambitious scenario. However, high investment costs and high dependency on electricity prices prohibit a profitable implementation before 2030–2040 without further subsidies. EW is the most energy and resource efficient production route. Since continuous electricity is needed for the continuous operation, the electricity costs are 20–40% higher than for H-DR (with high-capacity hydrogen storage units). Even though hydrogen production implies efficiency losses compared to the EW route, the decoupling of hydrogen production from continuous operation of the steel plant through hydrogen storage offers the opportunity to use cheap excess renewable electricity. This makes the H-DR economically and environmentally the most attractive route and provides a crucial contribution to stabilize the grid and to store excess energy in a 100% renewable energy system.
In recent decades, better data and methods have become available for understanding the complex functioning of cities and their impacts on sustainability. This review synthesizes the recent developments in concepts and methods being used to measure the impacts of cities on environmental sustainability. It differentiates between a dominant trend in research literature that concentrates on the accounting and allocation of greenhouse gas emissions and energy use to cities and a reemergence of studies that focus on the direct and indirect material and resource flows in cities. The methodological approaches reviewed may consider cities as either producers or consumers, and all recognize that urban environmental impacts can be local, regional, or global. As well as giving an overview of the methodological debates, we examine the implications of the different approaches for policy and the challenges these approaches face in their application on the field.
Access to sustainable and affordable energy services is a crucial factor in reducing poverty in developing countries. In particular, small-scale and community-based renewable energy projects are recognized as important forms of development assistance for reaching the energy poor. However, to date only a few empirical evaluations exist which analyze and compare the impact of these projects on local living conditions and their sustainability ex-post implementation.
To better understand the impacts and the conditions that influence sustainability of these projects, the research presented in this paper evaluated 23 local development projects post implementation. By applying an standardized evaluation design to a cross-sectional sample in terms of renewable energy sources (solar, wind, biomass, hydro), user needs (electricity, food preparation, lighting, productive uses), community management models, finance mechanisms and geographical locations, the review results provide valuable insights on the underlying conditions that influence the success or failure of these small-scale local energy interventions. The empirical evidence suggests that the sustainability of small-scale energy implementations (≤100 kW) in developing countries is determined by the same factors, independent of the socio-cultural, political and ecological context. These findings allow to better predict the long-term success of small sustainable energy projects in developing countries, this can help to improve project designs and increase the certainty for future investment decisions.
The diversification of the national electricity generation mix has risen to the top of Tunisia's energy planning agenda. Presently, natural gas provides 96% of the primary energy for electric power generation, but declining domestic gas reserves and a soaring electricity demand are urgently calling for alternative fuel strategies. Currently discussed diversification options include the introduction of coal and nuclear power plants and/or an increased use of renewable energies. This article presents a methodology to assess different electricity system transformation strategies. By combining an electricity market model with a subsequent multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), we evaluate five power mix scenarios regarding power generation costs as well as non-economic dimensions such as energy security, environmental impact and social welfare effects. Based on criteria valuations obtained during consultations with Tunisian stakeholders, a final, best-ranking electricity scenario was selected, consisting of 15% wind, 15% solar and 70% natural gas-generated electricity in the national power mix by 2030.
The buildings sector accounts for more than 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Despite the well-known economic viability of many energy-efficient renovation measures which offer great potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and meeting climate protection targets, there is a relatively low level of implementation. We performed a citation network analysis in order to identify papers at the research front and intellectual base on energy-efficient renovation in four areas: technical options, understanding decisions, incentive instruments, and models and simulation. The literature was reviewed in order to understand what is needed to sufficiently increase the number of domestic energy-efficient renovations and to identify potential research gaps. Our findings show that the literature on energy-efficient renovation gained considerable momentum in the last decade, but lacks a deep understanding of the uncertainties surrounding economic aspects and non-economic factors driving renovation decisions of homeowners. The analysis indicates that the (socio-economic) energy saving potential and profitability of energy-efficient renovation measures is lower than generally expected. It is suggested that this can be accounted for by the failure to understand and consider the underpinning influences of energy-consuming behaviour in calculations. Homeowners׳ decisions to renovate are shaped by an alliance of economic and non-economic goals. Therefore, existing incentives, typically targeting the economic viability of measures, have brought little success. A deeper understanding of the decisions of homeowners is needed and we suggest that a simulation model which maps the decision-making processes of homeowners may result in refining existing instruments or developing new innovative mechanisms to tackle the situation.
In many developing countries large parts of the population are negatively affected by the lack of access to clean and affordable energy. Providing sustainable energy services to these people has been acknowledged as a key component to reduce poverty. One form of development assistance to address the needs of the energy-poor at the local level are small-scale renewable energy projects. Like all development interventions, these energy projects are not intended to produce short-term outputs, but to create long-term impacts. Thus, it has become increasingly important to evaluate and accurately assess their sustainability. But despite the widely recognized need to identify successes factors and explain failure only few studies exist that address the sustainability of small-scale of energy development efforts post implementation. Against this background the paper presents the results of a post-evaluation of 23 projects supported via the Sustainable Energy Project Support (SEPS) scheme of the WISIONS initiative run by the Wuppertal Institute. The analysis provides insights on the influence that socio-economic, environmental, geographic and gender factors can have on the sustainability of small-scale renewable energy projects in developing countries.
Generating social practices
(2014)
Changing consumer behaviour is key to reducing the environmental effects of industrialised societies. Social practice theories provide an integrated approach to understanding consumer behaviour. The mechanisms underlying the emergence and diffusion of social practices are however until now poorly understood. This paper presents a conceptual framework and an abstract agent-based simulation model for generating social practices which use and extend approaches from social practice theories. The main results are twofold. First, the simulation model is able to generate social practices, what confirms that the conceptual framework captures relevant elements and processes. Second, a new mechanism for behavioural lock-in is identified that provides additional insights into the widely acknowledged challenge of changing social practices and respective consumption.
Since in 1992 the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) has been held in Rio de Janeiro, efforts to achieve sustainable development appear to have made only insufficient progress, as the results of the 2012 follow-up conference show. One reason for this is that among the various paths to sustainability being discussed, the strategies enjoying greater support are those that continue to be committed to economic and material growth, this as opposed to those that question the growth paradigm. Among the latter are the sufficiency and subsistence approaches. The sufficiency approach delves into the causes and (supposed) boons of a continuous increase in material and immaterial goods. With the demand that individuals not always be forced to always want more, it points out a way to a structural transition in society. The subsistence approach, on the other hand, seeks to draft a path to greater autonomy and quality of life by strengthening regional, local or indi-vidual self-provisioning. To be in harmony with sustainability, it must be possible to freely choose the two ways of life; they must not be mandated by the authorities.
Sustainability policy in the early 2000s is based on and therefore influenced by scientific literature on "transition". The importance of this link has inspired the authors to explore the structure of cooperating authors and citation networks in the field. In order to understand "transition" literature, we compare it with an alternative term for change, "transformation", which is also used in the context of socio-technical shifts towards sustainability. We expose the different structures of these fields with an overview of keywords, key references, key authors, and the coherence between references and authors. By analysing co-author and citation networks, we find large differences in these groups of documents. The transition literature is characterised by a large network of directly and indirectly cooperating authors with clear clusters; transformation literature contains smaller author networks. Key transition authors are predominantly Dutch. They repeatedly write together and cite each other's work. The transition literature is tightly knit with high degrees of internal references and a clearly distinguishable core. Transformation literature has fewer connections between authors and articles. The connecting articles, each with many global citations, form its basis. This analysis can be used as a step to continue the debate on the role of transition and transformation literature in sustainability and renewable energy policy. The transformation literature teaches us that older streams of thought are still relevant and may be used as "glue" for linking change with respect to sustainable energy to wider developments. Rediscovering existing literature in new combinations may lead to promising new views on sustainable energy.
The main objective of this article is to evaluate CO2 mitigation potential and to calculate costs avoided by the use of different CO2 mitigation technologies in China's cement sector, namely energy efficiency improvements, use of alternative fuels, clinker substitution and carbon capture and storage (CCS). Three scenarios are designed based on the projection of cement output and technology development over the next 40 years (2010–2050). 2.5, 4.7 and 4.3 Gt tonnes of CO2 will be saved totally in basic scenario and two low carbon scenarios up to 2050. By comparing these technologies along the scenarios, it can be concluded that CO2 emissions can mainly be reduced by energy efficiency improvements and use of alternative fuels. Clinker substitution, which reduces the clinker-to-cement ratio as well as energy intensity, results in significant cost advantages. CCS, including post-combustion capture and oxy-fuel combustion capture, could play an important role in the capture of CO2 in the cement industry, and is expected to be in commercial use by 2030.
A cost-minimizing electricity market model was used to explore optimized infrastructures for the integration of renewable energies in interconnected North African power systems until 2030. The results show that the five countries Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt could together achieve significant economic benefits, reaching up to EUR 3.4 billion, if they increase power system integration, build interconnectors and cooperate on joint utilization of their generation assets. Net electricity exports out of North Africa to Europe or Eastern Mediterranean regions, however, were not observed in the regime of integrated electricity markets until 2030, and could only be realized by much higher levels of renewable energy penetration than currently foreseen by North African governments.
Both focus group discussions and information-choice questionnaires (ICQs) have previously been used to examine informed public opinions about carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS). This paper presents an extensive experimental study to systematically examine and compare the quality of opinions created by these two research techniques. Depending on experimental condition, participants either participated in a focus group meeting or completed an ICQ. In both conditions participants received identical factual information about two specific CCS options. After having processed the information, they indicated their overall opinion about each CCS option. The quality of these opinions was determined by looking at three outcome-oriented indicators of opinion quality: consistency, stability, and confidence. Results for all three indicators showed that ICQs yielded higher-quality opinions than focus groups, but also that focus groups did not perform poor in this regard. Implications for the choice between focus group discussions and ICQs are discussed.
The Low Carbon Future Cities (LCFC) project aims at facing a three dimensional challenge by developing an integrated city roadmap balancing: low carbon development, gains in resource efficiency and adaptation to climate change. The paper gives an overview of the first outcomes of the analysis of the status quo and assessment of the most likely developments regarding GHG emissions, climate impacts and resource use in Wuxi - the Chinese pilot city for the LCFC project. As a first step, a detailed emission inventory following the IPCC guidelines for Wuxi has been carried out. In a second step, the future development of energy demand and related CO2 emissions in 2050 were simulated in a current policy scenario (CPS). In parallel, selected aspects of material and water flows for the energy and the building sector were analyzed and modeled. In addition, recent and future climate impacts and vulnerability were investigated. Based on these findings, nine key sectors with high relevance to the three dimensions could be identified. Although Wuxi's government has started a path to implement a low carbon plan, the first results show that, for the shift towards a sustainable low carbon development, more ambitious steps need to be taken in order to overcome the challenges faced.
The 2011 Japanese earthquake and tsunami, and the consequent accident at the Fukushima nuclear power plant, have had consequences far beyond Japan itself. Reactions to the accident in three major economies Japan, the UK, and Germany, all of whom were committed to relatively ambitious climate change targets prior to the accident are examined. In Japan and Germany, the accident precipitated a major change of policy direction. In the UK, debate has been muted and there has been essentially no change in energy or climate change policies. The status of the energy and climate change policies in each country prior to the accident is assessed, the responses to the accident are described, and the possible impacts on their positions in the international climate negotiations are analysed. Finally, the three countries' responses are compared and some differences between them observed. Some reasons for their different policy responses are suggested and some themes, common across all countries, are identified. Policy relevance: The attraction of nuclear power has rested on the promise of low-cost electricity, low-carbon energy supply, and enhanced energy independence. The Fukushima accident, which followed the Japanese tsunami of March 2011, has prompted a critical re-appraisal of nuclear power. The responses to Fukushima are assessed for the UK, Germany, and Japan. Before the accident, all three countries considered nuclear as playing a significant part in climate mitigation strategies. Although the UK Government has continued to support nuclear new build following a prompt review of safety arrangements, Japan and Germany have decided to phase out nuclear power, albeit according to different timescales. The factors that explain the different decisions are examined, including patterns of energy demand and supply, the wider political context, institutional arrangements, and public attitudes to risk. The implications for the international climate negotiations are also assessed.
Germany's current efforts to decarbonize its electricity system are analysed. As nuclear power and fossil power plants equipped with carbon capture and storage were ruled out in 2011, renewable electricity generation (RES) together with electricity savings are the primary focus for achieving decarbonization. Germany aims to have RES account for at least 80% of its electricity by 2050. Achieving renewable generation needs strong political support and regulatory provisions for its market integration. Four main technical and regulatory challenges are the maintenance of a steady and efficient expansion of RES, the provision of balancing capacities, the realization of the targeted electricity savings, and the smart adaptation of the transport and distribution grid. An overview of the existing and planned regulatory provisions for decarbonization are described, and some gaps identified, particularly with regard to the overall management of the process, the inclusion of electricity savings and the interference of Germany's decarbonization strategies with neighbouring countries. Policies that both accelerate grid expansion and direct RES expansion should immediately be put in place and can be supported by a targeted mobilization of balancing capacities. Electricity savings are a significant and cost-efficient strategy for low-carbon electricity. Policy relevance: Germany is actively converting its national electricity system towards a fully renewable one. As renewable electricity has reached about a quarter of total consumption, a number of technical and regulatory challenges arise. Current discussions and plans are described for the four main challenges: maintaining and optimizing high investment rates into RES generation technologies, providing balancing capacities, reducing demand, and adapting the grid to the changing needs. Policy recommendations for these four tasks highlight the need to intensify electricity demand reduction and also consider the potential interactions between the German electricity system and its neighbouring countries.
Only three days after the beginning of the nuclear catastrophe in Fukushima, Japan, on 11 March 2011, the German government ordered 8 of the country's 17 existing nuclear power plants (NPPs) to stop operating within a few days. In summer 2011 the government put forward a law - passed in parliament by a large majority - that calls for a complete nuclear phase-out by the end of 2022. These government actions were in contrast to its initial plans, laid out in fall 2010, to expand the lifetimes of the country's NPPs.
The immediate closure of 8 NPPs and the plans for a complete nuclear phase-out within little more than a decade, raised concerns about Germany's ability to secure a stable supply of electricity. Some observers feared power supply shortages, increasing CO2-emissions and a need for Germany to become a net importer of electricity.
Now - a little more than a year after the phase-out law entered into force - this paper examines these concerns using (a) recent statistical data on electricity production and demand in the first 15 months after the German government's immediate reaction to the Fukushima accident and (b) reviews the most recent projections and scenarios by different stakeholders on how the German electricity system may develop until 2025, when NPPs will no longer be in operation.
The paper finds that Germany has a realistic chance of fully replacing nuclear power with additional renewable electricity generation on an annual basis by 2025 or earlier, provided that several related challenges, e.g. expansion of the grids and provision of balancing power, can be solved successfully. Already in 2012 additional electricity generation from renewable energy sources in combination with a reduced domestic demand for electricity will likely fully compensate for the reduced power generation from the NPPs shut down in March 2011.
If current political targets will be realised, Germany neither has to become a net electricity importer, nor will be unable to gradually reduce fossil fuel generated electricity. Whether the reduction in fossil fuel use will be sufficient to adequately contribute to national greenhouse gas mitigation targets significantly depends on an active policy to promote electricity savings, continuous efforts to increase the use of renewables and a higher share of natural gas (preferably used in combined heat and power plants) in fossil fuel power generation.
The paper analyzes a Bolivian region for possible cultivation of the oil plant Jatropha curcas for sustainable biodiesel production in order to replace in part Bolivia's diesel imports. The specific site for this study is located in the dry region of Gran Chaco in Santa Cruz. The aim of this work is to analyse the potential of useable land and resources for sustainable biodiesel production from Jatropha without competition with edibles production using economic, environmental and social criteria. In addition the article introduces Jatropha as one of the preferred oil plants for biodiesel production in several countries and indicates its different uses. The recommendation to cultivate Jatropha for biodiesel production is based on an exploration of the possibility of land use in the selected region and the benefits Jatropha production could offer. In this manner a sustainable cultivation of Jatropha in the region of Gran Chaco is recommended to produce biodiesel and to improve some of the environmental problems facing the region.
This paper attempts to assess whether renewable energy self-sufficiency can be achieved in the crop production and processing sector in Tanzania and if this could be accomplished in an environmentally sustainable manner. In order to answer these questions the theoretical energy potential of process residues from commercially produced agricultural crops in Tanzania is evaluated. Furthermore, a set of sustainability indicators with focus on environmental criteria is applied to identify risks and opportunities of using these residues for energy generation. In particular, the positive and negative effects on the land-use-system (soil fertility, water use and quality, biodiversity, etc.) are evaluated. The results show that energy generation with certain agricultural process residues could not only improve and secure the energy supply but could also improve the sustainability of current land-use practices.
The energy potential of agricultural residues in Tanzania has so far not been evaluated and quantified sufficiently. Moreover, the scientific basis for estimations of the sustainable potential of wastes and residues is still very limited. This paper presents an attempt to evaluate the theoretical and technical potential of residues from the sisal sector in Tanzania with regards to energy recovery through anaerobic digestion. The characteristics and availability of sisal residues are defined and a set of sustainability indicators with particular focus on environmental and socio-economic criteria is applied. Our analysis shows that electricity generation with sisal residues can be sustainable and have positive effects on the sustainability of sisal production itself. All sisal residues combined have an annual maximum electricity potential of 102 GW h in 2009, corresponding to up to 18.6 MW of potential electric capacity installations. This estimated maximum potential is equivalent to about 3 % of the country's current power production. Utilizing these residues could contribute to meeting the growing electricity demand and offers an opportunity for decentralized electricity production in Tanzania.
This paper examines the effects of an increased integration of concentrated solar power (CSP) into the conventional electricity systems of Morocco and Algeria. A cost-minimizing linear optimization tool was used to calculate the best CSP plant configuration for Morocco's coal-dominated power system as well as for Algeria, where flexible gas-fired power plants prevail. The results demonstrate that in both North African countries, storage-based CSP plants offer significant economic advantages over non-storage, low-dispatchable CSP configurations. However, in a generalized renewable integration scenario, where CSP has to compete with other renewable generation technologies, like wind or photovoltaic (PV) power, it was found that the cost advantages of dispatchability only justify CSP investments when a relatively high renewable penetration is targeted in the electricity mix.
Purpose - Iran as an energy-rich country faces many challenges in the optimal utilization of its vast resources. High rates of population and economic growth, a generous subsidies program, and poor resource management have contributed to rapidly growing energy consumption and high energy intensity over the past decades. The continuing trend of rising energy consumption will bring about new challenges as it will shrink oil export revenues, restraining economic activities. This calls for a study to explore alternative scenarios for the utilization of energy resources in Iran. The purpose of this paper is to model demand for energy in Iran and develop two business-as-usual and efficiency scenarios for the period 2005-2030.
Design/methodology/approach - The authors use a techno-economic or end-use approach to model energy demand in Iran for different types of energy uses and energy carriers in all sectors of the economy and forecast it under two scenarios: business as usual (BAU) and efficiency.
Findings - Iran has a huge potential for energy savings. Specifically, under the efficiency scenario, Iran will be able to reduce its energy consumption 40 percent by 2030. The energy intensity can also be reduced by about 60 percent to a level lower than the world average today.
Originality/value - The paper presents a comprehensive study that models the Iranian energy demand in different sectors of the economy, using data at different aggregation levels and a techno-economic end-use approach to illuminate the future of energy demand under alternative scenarios.
Sustainable energy technologies are widely sought-after as essential elements in facing global challenges such as energy security, global warming and poverty reduction. However, in spite of their promising advantages, sustainable energy technologies make only a marginal contribution to meeting energy related needs in both industrialised and developing countries, in comparison to the widespread use of unsustainable technologies. One of the most significant constraints to their adoption and broad diffusion is the socio-economic context in which sustainable energy technologies are supposed to operate. The same holds true for community-based energy projects in developing countries supported by the WISIONS initiative. Practical strategies dealing with these socio-economic challenges are crucial elements for project design and, particularly, for the implementation of project activities. In this paper experiences from implementing community-based projects are reviewed in order to identify the practical elements that are relevant to overcome socio-economic challenges. In order to systematise the findings, an analytical framework is proposed, which combines analytical tools from the socio-technical transition framework and insights from participative approaches to development.
If the current energy policy priorities are retained, there may be no need to focus additionally on carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the power plant sector of Germany. This applies even in the case of ambitious climate protection targets, according to the results of the presented integrated assessment study. These cover a variety of aspects: Firstly, the technology is not expected to become available on a large scale in Germany before 2025. Secondly, if renewable energies and combined heat and power are expanded further and energy productivity is enhanced, there is likely to be only a limited demand for CCS power plants, as a scenario analysis of CCS deployment in Germany shows. Thirdly, cost analysis using the learning curve approach shows that the electricity generation costs of renewable electricity approach those of CCS power plants. This leads to the consequence that, from 2020, several renewable technologies may well be in a position to offer electricity at a cheaper rate than CCS power plants. In addition, a review of new life cycle assessments for CO2 separation in the power plant sector indicates that the greenhouse gas emissions from 1 kW h of electricity generated by first-generation CCS power plants could only be reduced by 68 % to 87 % (95 % in individual cases). Finally, a cautious, conservative estimate of the effective German CO2 storage capacity of approximately 5 billion tonnes of CO2 is calculated, including a fluctuation range yielding values between 4 and 15 billion tonnes of CO2. Therefore, the total CO2 emissions caused by large point sources in Germany could be stored for 12 years (basic value) or for 8 or 33 years (sensitivity values).
The study presents the results of an integrated assessment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the power plant sector in Germany, with special emphasis on the competition with renewable energy technologies. Assessment dimensions comprise technical, economic and environmental aspects, long-term scenario analysis, the role of stakeholders and public acceptance and regulatory issues. The results lead to the overall conclusion that there might not necessarily be a need to focus additionally on CCS in the power plant sector. Even in case of ambitious climate protection targets, current energy policy priorities (expansion of renewable energies and combined heat and power plants as well as enhanced energy productivity) result in a limited demand for CCS. In case that the large energy saving potential aimed for can only partly be implemented, the rising gap in CO2 reduction could only be closed by setting up a CCS-maximum strategy. In this case, up to 22% (41 GW) of the totally installed load in 2050 could be based on CCS. Assuming a more realistic scenario variant applying CCS to only 20 GW or lower would not be sufficient to reach the envisaged climate targets in the electricity sector. Furthermore, the growing public opposition against CO2 storage projects appears as a key barrier, supplemented by major uncertainties concerning the estimation of storage potentials, the long-term cost development as well as the environmental burdens which abound when applying a life-cycle approach. However, recently, alternative applications are being increasingly considered–that is the capture of CO2 at industrial point sources and biomass based energy production (electricity, heat and fuels) where assessment studies for exploring the potentials, limits and requirements for commercial use are missing so far. Globally, CCS at power plants might be an important climate protection technology: coal-consuming countries such as China and India are increasingly moving centre stage into the debate. Here, similar investigations on the development and the integration of both, CCS and renewable energies, into the individual energy system structures of such countries would be reasonable.
The North African countries Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt have been and are currently experiencing rapid growth in energy demand. This development confronts their political leaders with the question of how to expand or diversify their countries' generation capacities. In this context, renewable energies and nuclear power constitute options that have rarely been exploited so far in the region. This article analyzes the drawbacks and benefits of both alternatives, with a special focus on import and export dynamics. When attempting to make the strategic decision between renewables and atomic power, North African regional specifics and circumstances have to be taken into account. Hence, in a first step, the article characterizes the energy systems of the North African countries and presents scenarios for their future development. In a second step, it scrutinizes the energy challenges these states face in terms of domestic concerns and foreign affairs. Finally, a case study of Algeria is used to demonstrate how renewable energies, but not nuclear power, are able to respond to North African energy challenges.
Biogas and bio-methane that are based on energy crops are renewable energy carriers and therefore potentially contribute to climate protection. However, significant greenhouse gas emissions resulting from agricultural production processes must be considered, mainly resulting from agricultural production processes, as fertilizer use, pesticide etc.
This paper provides an integrated life cycle assessment (LCA) of biogas (i.e. bio-methane that has been upgraded and injected into the natural gas grid), taking into account the processes of fermentation, upgrading and injection to the grid for two different types of biogas plants thus examining the current state of the art as well as new, large-scale plants, operated by industrial players. Not only technical and engineering aspects are taken into account here, but also the choice of feedstock which plays an important role as to the overall ecological evaluation of bio-methane.
The substrates evaluated in this paper - aside from maize - are rye, sorghum, whole-crop-silage from triticale and barley, and the innovative options of agricultural grass (Landsberger Gemenge, a mixture of hairy vetch (vicia villosa), crimson clover (trifolium incarnátum) and Italian ryegrass (lolium multiflorum)) as well as a combination of maize and sunflower.
Natural gas makes an increasing contribution to the European Union's energy supply. Due to its efficiency and low level of combustion emissions this reduces greenhouse gas emissions compared to the use of other fossil fuels. However, being itself a potent greenhouse gas, a high level of direct losses of natural gas in its process chain could neutralise these advantages. Which effect will finally prevail depends on future economical as well as technical developments. Based on two different scenarios of the main influencing factors we can conclude that over the next two decades CH4 emissions from the natural gas supply chain can be significantly reduced, in spite of unfavourable developments of the supply structures. This, however, needs a substantial, but economically attractive investment into new technology, particularly in Russia.
Biogas and bio-methane that are based on energy crops are renewable energy carriers and therefore potentially contribute to climate protection. However, significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions resulting from agricultural production processes must be considered. Among those, the production and use of fertilizer, and the resulting leaching of nitrous oxide (N2O), are crucial factors. This article provides an integrated life cycle assessment (LCA) of biogas (i.e. bio-methane that has been upgraded and injected into the natural gas grid), taking into account the processes of fermentation, upgrading and injection to the grid for two different types of biogas plants. The analysis is based on different feedstocks from crop rotation systems for different locations in Germany. A special focus is on the sensitivity of assumptions of nitrous oxide emissions to overall GHG emissions. Much research exists on the measurement or modeling of the actual N2O emissions that result from farming processes. Since there is as yet no precise regional data, most analyses use tier-1 data from the IPCC national GHG inventories as a default. The present article coincides with recent research in indicating that this data varies at the regional level. However, it is not the scope of the article to evaluate the quality of existing data for N2O emissions, but to show the effects of different assumptions on the LCA of GHGs from bio-methane. Thus, a link between the provision of emission data and the practical implementation of biogas technology is provided. The main result is that the supply chain of substrates from agricultural processes appears to contribute the most to the GHG emissions of bio-methane. The "worst case" scenario where 5% of the nitrogen fertilizer used is emitted in form of N2O shows that the GHG mitigation potential of bio-methane versus natural gas is very small, so there is not much margin for error in the plant technology.
In 1990 a sovereign wealth fund was founded in Norway in which the country invests surpluses from oil and gas industry sales. The fund is designed to secure the state's ability to act in a post-petroleum era. At the end of the 1990's the voice of Norwegian civil society insisted that the sovereign wealth fund should not only ensure intergenerational justice, but should also contribute to the implementation of values and norms of the present country. At the end of 2004 the parliament finally agreed upon ethical regulations for the investment of the sovereign wealth fund. Now the second largest sovereign wealth fund in the world only invests in businesses that adhere to those ethical regulations. In the present paper, I seek to illustrate the emergence and outcomes of this new development in the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund.
Energy used in buildings is responsible for more than 40% of energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the EU and their share in cost-efficient GHG mitigation potentials is estimated to be even higher. In spite of its huge savings potential of up to 80%, achievements are very slow in the building sector and much stronger political action seems to be needed. One important step in this direction has been the recast of the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) in autumn 2009. However, strong national implementation including powerful packages of flanking measures seems to be crucial to really make significant progress in this important field. In order to directly improve political action, we provide a differentiated country-by-country bottom up simulation of residential buildings for the whole EU, Norway, Iceland, Croatia and Liechtenstein. The analysis provides a database of the building stock by construction periods, building types, as well as typical building sizes. It includes a simulation of the thermal quality and costs of the components of the building shell for new buildings as well as the refurbishment of the existing building stock. Based on this differentiated analysis, we show in detail what would be needed to accelerate energy savings in the building sector and provide a more precise estimate of the potentials to be targeted by particular policies. We demonstrate, e.g. that the potential of building codes set via the EPBD would be located mainly in those countries that already have quite stringent codes in place. We show as well the high relevance of accelerating refurbishments and re-investment cycles of buildings. By providing a clear estimate of the full costs related to such a strategy, we highlight a major obstacle to accelerated energy-efficient building renovation and construction.
Preventing the worst consequences of climate change would require that GHG emissions be reduced to levels near zero by the middle of the century. To respond to such a daunting challenge, we need to rethink and redesign the currently highly energy-dependent infrastructures of industrial societies and particularly the urban infrastructures to become low- or even zero-carbon cities. Sustainable urban infrastructures need technology. In this paper focused on Western European Cities, we discuss a wide set of technologies in the fields of building, energy and transport infrastructures that can significantly contribute to a reduction of energy and/or GHG emissions and are already available or are in the pipeline. Based on the review of a recent study for the city of Munich, we then present how a mix of these technologies could reduce CO2-emissions by up to 90% for the metropolis of 1.3 million inhabitants and that this strategy could be economically attractive despite a high initial investment.
All of the residential buildings of a city like Munich could be entirely redesigned for EUR 200 per inhabitant annually, which is about one third of an average annual natural gas bill.
Scientization : putting global climate change on the scientific agenda and the role of the IPCC
(2010)
Since the 1970s, climate change has dominated the international scientific and political agenda. In particular, the foundation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the end of the 1980s played a major role for the further enhancement of efforts in the field of climate change sciences. However, to understand the interaction of the worldwide coordination of climate change sciences as well as the role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and its consequences, it is worthwhile to take a look at the self-conception of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's tasks and work. This paper gives an idea of the history of international climate change science, its representation in public discourse and the role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by comprehensively illustrating its tasks, organization and self-image. Furthermore, the article tries to argue that the hitherto accepted concept of science followed within this body fails to integrate the idea of scientific ethics. It can be concluded that the conception of science represented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has heavily influenced worldwide attention to climate change, its becoming part of the political agenda as well as the ethical consequences.
For parabolic trough power plants using synthetic oil as the heat transfer medium, the application of solid media sensible heat storage is an attractive option in terms of investment and maintenance costs. One important aspect in storage development is the storage integration into the power plant. A modular operation concept for thermal storage systems was previously suggested by DLR, showing an increase in storage capacity of more than 100 %. However, in these investigations, the additional costs needed to implement this storage concept into the power plant, like for extra piping, valves, pumps and control had not been considered. These aspects are discussed in this paper, showing a decrease of levelized energy costs with modular storage integration of 2 to 3 %. In a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) a comparison of an AndaSol-I type solar thermal power plant [1] with the original two-tank molten salt storage and with a "hypothetical" concrete storage shows an advantage of the concrete storage technology concerning environmental impacts. The environmental impacts of the “hypothetical” concrete based AndaSol-I decrease by 7 %, considering 1 kWh of solar electricity delivered to the grid. Regarding only the production of the power plant, the emissions decrease by 9.5 %.
Several energy scenario studies consider concentrated solar power (CSP) plants as an important technology option to reduce the world's CO2 emissions to a level required for not letting the global average temperature exceed a threshold of 2–2.4 °C. A global ramp up of CSP technologies offers great economic opportunities for technology providers as CSP technologies include highly specialised components. This paper analyses possible value creation effects resulting from a global deployment of CSP until 2050 as projected in scenarios of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Greenpeace International. The analysis focuses on the economic opportunities of German technology providers since companies such as Schott Solar, Flabeg or Solar Millennium are among the leading suppliers of CSP technologies on the global market.
Renewable energy can become the major energy supply option in low-carbon energy economies. Disruptive transformations in all energy systems are necessary for tapping widely available renewable energy resources. Organizing the energy transition from non-sustainable to renewable energy is often described as the major challenge of the first half of the 21st century. Technological innovation, the economy (costs and prices) and policies have to be aligned to achieve full renewable energy potentials, and barriers impeding that growth need to be removed. These issues are also covered by IPCC's special report on renewable energy and climate change to be completed in 2010. This article focuses on the interrelations among the drivers. It clarifies definitions of costs and prices, and of barriers. After reviewing how the third and fourth assessment reports of IPCC cover mitigation potentials and commenting on definitions of renewable energy potentials in the literature, we propose a consistent set of potentials of renewable energy supplies.
The Gulf countries are largely dependent on exporting oil and natural gas for their national budgets. They mainly use domestic fossil fuels for their domestic energy supply. In spite of favorable geographic conditions, especially for solar energy, renewable energies are still a niche application. Abu Dhabi, besides Dubai, the most important emirate in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), has now started a process of "transforming oil wealth into renewable energy leadership", and has set the long-term goal of a "transition from a 20th Century, carbon-based economy into a 21st Century sustainable economy." This article is a case study about "Masdar City", a planned carbon-neutral town in Abu Dhabi. The article describes the key characteristics of Masdar City, analyses the drivers behind the project, identifies the main actors for its implementation, and seeks obstacles to creation and development as well as the policy behind Masdar City. Finally, a first judgment of possible diffusion effects of the project is done.
This study provides insight into the feasibility of a CO2 trunkline from the Netherlands to the Utsira formation in the Norwegian part of the North Sea, which is a large geological storage reservoir for CO2. The feasibility is investigated in competition with CO2 storage in onshore and near-offshore sinks in the Netherlands. Least-cost modelling with a MARKAL model in combination with ArcGIS was used to assess the cost-effectiveness of the trunkline as part of aDutch greenhouse gas emission reduction strategy for the Dutch electricity sector and CO2 intensive industry. The results show that under the condition that a CO2 permit price increases from €25 per tCO2 in 2010 to €60 per tCO2 in 2030, and remains at this level up to 2050, CO2 emissions in the Netherlands could reduce with 67% in 2050 compared to 1990, and investment in the Utsira trunkline may be cost-effective from 2020–2030 provided that Belgian and German CO2 is transported and stored via the Netherlands as well. In this case, by 2050 more than 2.1 GtCO2 would have been transported from the Netherlands to the Utsira formation. However, if the Utsira trunkline is not used for transportation of CO2 from Belgium and Germany, it may become cost-effective 10 years later, and less than 1.3 GtCO2 from the Netherlands would have been stored in the Utsiraformation by 2050. On the short term, CO2 storage in Dutch fields appears more cost-effective than in the Utsira formation, but as yet there are major uncertainties related to the timing and effective exploitation of the Dutch offshore storage opportunities.
Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates are major oil and natural gas producing countries that make up the Gulf Cooperation Council. The six GCC countries fall in the top 25 countries of carbon dioxide emissions per capita and are perceived as the main actors blocking international climate change negotiations. The aim of this article is to discuss from a policy perspective the capacities of the GCC states to switch toward an ecological modernization of their energy sectors. At the beginning of the paper, I analyze the benefits of transforming oil wealth into funding for renewable energy and energy efficiency. After this, I discuss obstacles to such a transformation process based on the rentier states theory. Finally, I investigate governance of the GCC on all levels (international, regional, and local). The article shows that the GCC countries have recently adopted a more pro-active approach toward ecological modernization. This reorientation has not yet resulted in the development of consistent strategies and policies, however. The concluding assumption based on the concept of policy transfer is that pioneering projects such as Masdar City and innovative regulation like the green building code in Dubai will spread within the GCC.
The global land area required to meet the German consumption of agricultural products for food and non-food use was quantified, and the related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, particularly those induced by land-use changes in tropical countries, were estimated. Two comprehensive business-as-usual scenarios describe the development corridor of biomass for non-food use in terms of energetic and non-energetic purposes. In terms of land use, Germany was already a net importer of agricultural land in 2004, and the net additional land required by 2030 is estimated to comprise 2.5–3.4 Mha. This is mainly due to biofuel demand driven by current policy targets. Meeting the required biodiesel import demand would result in an additional GWP of 23–37 Tg of CO2 equivalents through direct and indirect land-use changes. Alternative scenario elements outline the potential options for reducing Germany's land requirement, which reflect future global per capita availability.
Because of a growing dependence on oil imports, powerful industrial, political and societal stakeholders in the UnitedStates are trying to enhance national energy security through the conversion of domestic coal into synthetic hydrocarbon liquid fuels - so-called coal-to-liquids (CtL) processes. However, because of the technology's high costs and carbon intensity, its market deployment is strongly affected by the US energy, technology and climate policy setting. This paper analyses and discusses policy drivers and barriers for CtL technologies in the United States and reaches the conclusion that an increasing awareness of global warming among US policy-makers raises the requirements for the technology's environmental performance and, thus, limits its potential to regional niche markets in coal-producing states or strategic markets, such as the military, with specific security and fuel requirements.
Because of a growing global energy demand and rising oil prices coal-abundant nations, such as China and the United States, are pursuing the application of technologies which could replace crude oil imports by converting coal to synthetic hydrocarbon fuels - so-called coal-to-liquids (CtL) technologies. The case of CtL is well suited to analyse techno-economic, resources-related, policy-driven and actor-related parameters, which are affecting the market prospects of a technology that eases energy security constraints but is hardly compatible with a progressive climate policy. This paper concentrates on Germany as an example - the European Union (EU)'s largest member state with considerable coal reserves. It shows that in Germany and the EU, CtL is facing rather unfavourable market conditions as high costs and ambitious climate targets offset its energy security advantage.
A number of "roadmapping" activities are being carried out internationally with the aim of planning and facilitating transitions to hydrogen energy systems. However, there is an evident discrepancy between the treatment of quantitative and qualitative information in the majority of roadmapping efforts. Whilst quantitative information is frequently analysed in numerical and computational models, conversely qualitative information tends to be incorporated on a significantly more ad hoc basis. Previous attempts at incorporating qualitative considerations have not usually been systematised. In this paper we present a methodology aimed at increasing the rigour with which qualitative information is treated in hydrogen roadmapping activities. The key changes and actor mapping (KCAM) methodology was developed as the primary qualitative component of the European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap project "HyWays". KCAM, developed from a well known general systems development model, constitutes a means of qualitatively analysing variable hydrogen supply chains that is structured, systematic and flexible.
Scenarios for the future of renewable energy through 2050 are reviewed to explore how much renewable energy is considered possible or desirable and to inform policymaking. Existing policy targets for 2010 and 2020 are also reviewed for comparison. Common indicators are shares of primary energy, electricity, heat, and transport fuels from renewables. Global, Europe-wide, and country-specific scenarios show 10% to 50% shares of primary energy from renewables by 2050. By 2020, many targets and scenarios show 20% to 35% share of electricity from renewables, increasing to the range 50% to 80% by 2050 under the highest scenarios. Carbon-constrained scenarios for stabilization of emissions or atmospheric concentration depict trade-offs between renewables, nuclear power, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) from coal, most with high energy efficiency. Scenario outcomes differ depending on degree of future policy action, fuel prices, carbon prices, technology cost reductions, and aggregate energy demand, with resource constraints mainly for biomass and biofuels.
The Russian natural gas industry is the world's largest producer and transporter of natural gas. This paper aims to characterize the methane emissions from Russian natural gas transmission operations, to explain projects to reduce these emissions, and to characterize the role of emissions reduction within the context of current GHG policy. It draws on the most recent independent measurements at all parts of the Russian long distance transport system made by the Wuppertal Institute in 2003 and combines these results with the findings from the US Natural Gas STAR Program on GHG mitigation options and economics.
With this background the paper concludes that the methane emissions from the Russian natural gas long distance network are approximately 0.6% of the natural gas delivered. Mitigating these emissions can create new revenue streams for the operator in the form of reduced costs, increased gas throughput and sales, and earned carbon credits. Specific emissions sources that have cost-effective mitigation solutions are also opportunities for outside investment for the Joint Implementation Kyoto Protocol flexibility mechanism or other carbon markets.
For the option of “carbon capture and storage”, an integrated assessment in the form of a life cycle analysis and a cost assessment combined with a systematic comparison with renewable energies regarding future conditions in the power plant market for the situation in Germany is done. The calculations along the whole process chain show that CCS technologies emit per kWh more than generally assumed in clean-coal concepts (total CO2 reduction by 72-90% and total greenhouse gas reduction by 65-79%) and considerable more if compared with renewable electricity. Nevertheless, CCS could lead to a significant absolute reduction of GHG-emissions within the electricity supply system. Furthermore, depending on the growth rates and the market development, renewables could develop faster and could be in the long term cheaper than CCS based plants. Especially, in Germany, CCS as a climate protection option is phasing a specific problem as a huge amount of fossil power plant has to be substituted in the next 15 years where CCS technologies might be not yet available. For a considerable contribution of CCS to climate protection, the energy structure in Germany requires the integration of capture ready plants into the current renewal programs. If CCS retrofit technologies could be applied at least from 2020, this would strongly decrease the expected CO2 emissions and would give a chance to reach the climate protection goal of minus 80% including the renewed fossil-fired power plants.
Because of high efficiency, low environmental impacts and a potential role in transforming our energy system into a hydrogen economy, fuel cells are often considered as a key technology for a sustainable energy supply. However, the future framing conditions under which stationary fuel cells have to prove their technical and economic competitiveness are most likely characterised by a reduced demand for space heating, and a growing contribution of renewable energy sources to heat and electricity supply, which both directly limit the potential for combined heat and power generation, and thus also for fuelcells. Taking Germany as a case study, this paper explores the market potential of stationaryfuelcells under the structural changes of the energy demand and supply system required to achieve asustainable energy supply. Results indicate that among the scenarios analysed it is in particular a strategy oriented towards ambitious CO2-reduction targets, which due to its changes in the supply structure is in a position to mobilise a market potential that might be large enough for a successful fuel cell commercialisation. However, under the conditions of a business-as-usual trajectory the sales targets of fuel cell manufacturers cannot be met.
Considering the enormous ecological and economic importance of the transport sector the introduction of alternative fuels - together with drastic energy efficiency gains - will be a key to sustainable mobility, nationally as well as globally. However, the future role of alternative fuels cannot be examined from the isolated perspective of the transport sector. Interactions with the energysystem as a whole have to be taken into account. This holds both for the issue of availability of energy sources as well as for allocation effects, resulting from the shift of renewable energy from the stationary sector to mobile applications. With emphasis on hydrogen as a transport fuel for private passenger cars, this paper discusses the energy systems impacts of various scenarios introducing hydrogen fueled vehicles in Germany. It identifies clear restrictions to an enhanced growth of clean hydrogen production from renewable energy sources (RES). Furthermore, it points at systems interdependencies that call for a priority use of RES electricity in stationary applications. Whereas hydrogen can play an increasing role in transport after 2030 the most important challenge is to exploit short–mid-term potentials of boosting car efficiency.
The role of hydrogen in long run sustainable energy scenarios for the world and for the case of Germany is analysed, based on key criteria for sustainable energy systems. The possible range of hydrogen within long-term energy scenarios is broad and uncertain depending on assumptions on used primary energy, technology mix, rate of energy efficiency increase and costs degression ("learning effects"). In any case, sustainable energy strategies must give energy efficiency highest priority combined with an accelerated market introduction of renewables ("integrated strategy"). Under these conditions hydrogen will play a major role not before 2030 using natural gas as a bridge to renewable hydrogen. Against the background of an ambitious CO2-reduction goal which is under discussion in Germany the potentials for efficiency increase, the necessary structural change of the power plant system (corresponding to the decision to phase out nuclear energy, the transformation of the transportation sector and the market implementation order of renewable energies ("following efficiency guidelines first for electricity generation purposes, than for heat generation and than for the transportation sector")) are analysed based on latest sustainable energy scenarios.
Based on different current long-term energy scenarios the paper discusses the future perspectives of hydrogen in the German energy system as a representative example for the development of sustainable energy systems. The scenario analysis offers varying outlines of the future energy system that determine the possible role of hydrogen. The paper discusses the possibilities of expanding the share of renewable energy and the resulting prospects for establishing clean hydrogen production from renewable energy sources. Emphasis is given to the questions of an ecologically efficient allocation of limited renewable energy resources that can only be assessed from asystems analysis perspective. Findings from recent studies for Germany reveal a strong competition between the direct input into the electricity system and an indirect use as fuel in the transport sector. Moreover, the analysis underlines the paramount importance of reducing energy demand as the inevitable prerequisite for any renewable energy system.
Using natural gas for fuel releases less carbon dioxide per unit of energy produced than burning oil or coal, but its production and transport are accompanied by emissions of methane, which is a much more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide in the short term. This calls into question whether climate forcing could be reduced by switching from coal and oil to natural gas. We have made measurements in Russia along the world's largest gas-transport system and find that methane leakage is in the region of 1.4%, which is considerably less than expected and comparable to that from systems in the United States. Our calculations indicate that using natural gas in preference to other fossil fuels could be useful in the short term for mitigating climate change.
New energy efficiency policies have been introduced around the world. Historically, most energy models were reasonably equipped to assess the impact of classical policies, such as a subsidy or change in taxation. However, these tools are often insufficient to assess the impact of alternative policy instruments. We evaluate the so-called engineering economic models used to assess future industrial energy use. Engineering economic models include the level of detail commonly needed to model the new types of policies considered. We explore approaches to improve the realism and policy relevance of engineering economic modeling frameworks. We also explore solutions to strengthen the policy usefulness of engineering economic analysis that can be built from a framework of multidisciplinary cooperation. The review discusses the main modeling approaches currently used and evaluates the weaknesses in current models. We focus on the needs to further improve the models. We identify research priorities for the modeling framework, technology representation in models, policy evaluation, and modeling of decision-making behavior.
It is now widely recognized that effective communication and demand-side policies for alternative energy require sound knowledge of preferences and determinants of demand of the public and consumers. To date, public attitudes towards new transport technologies have been studied under very different conceptual frameworks. This paper gives an overview of the various conceptual frameworks and methodologies used, where four main approaches can be distinguished: general attitudinal surveys, risk perception studies, non-market economic valuation studies, and other approaches such as those based on semiotic theory. We then review the findings of the recent literature on acceptance, attitudes and preferences for hydrogen and fuelcell end-use technologies, focusing on vehicles. These studies are then contrasted with related research into alternative fuel vehicles. The paper finally discusses the main trends in research and avenues for further work in this field. We recommend, among other things, the use of approaches that build knowledge and familiarity with the technology prior to the exploration of attitudes, and the set up of studies that take a whole-systems perspective of hydrogen technologies and that look at hydrogen in the context of other competing clean technologies.
A promising candidate that may follow conventional vehicles with internal combustion engines combines hydrogen from regenerative sources of energy, fuelcells and an electric drive train. For early fleets introduced the refuelling infrastructure needs to be in place at least to the extent of the vehicles operational reach. The question arises which strategies may help to keep initial hydrogen and infrastructure cost low? Industrial production, distribution and use of hydrogen is well-established and the volumes handled are substantial. Even though today's industrialhydrogen is not in tune with the long-term sustainable vision, hydrogen production and infrastructure already in place might serve as a nucleus for putting that vision into practice. This contribution takes stock of industrial production and use of hydrogen in North Rhine-Westphalia based on a recently finalized project. It demonstrates to which extent industrial hydrogen could be used for a growing number of vehicles and at which time additional capacity might need to be installed.
Concentrated solar power (CSP) plants are one of several renewable energy technologies with significant potential to meet a part of future energy demand. An integrated technology assessment shows that CSP plants could play a promising role in Africa and Europe, helping to reach ambitious climate protection goals. Based on the analysis of driving forces and barriers, at first three future envisaged technology scenarios are developed. Depending on the underlying assumptions, an installed capacity of 120 GWel, 405 GWel or even 1,000 GWel could be reached globally in 2050. In the latter case, CSP would then meet 13–15% of global electricity demand. Depending on these scenarios, cost reduction curves for North Africa and Europe are derived. The cost assessment conducted for two virtual sites in Algeria and in Spain shows a long-term reduction of electricity generating costs to figures between 4 and 6 ct/kWhel in 2050. The paper concludes with an ecological analysis based on life cycle assessment. Although the greenhouse gas emissions of current (solar only operated) CSP systems show a good performance (31 g CO2-equivalents/kWhel) compared with advanced fossil-fired systems (130–900 CO2-eq./kWhel), they could further be reduced to 18 g CO2-eq./kWhel in 2050, including transmission from North Africa to Europe.