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The role of hydrogen in long run sustainable energy scenarios for the world and for the case of Germany is analysed, based on key criteria for sustainable energy systems. The possible range of hydrogen within long-term energy scenarios is broad and uncertain depending on assumptions on used primary energy, technology mix, rate of energy efficiency increase and costs degression ("learning effects"). In any case, sustainable energy strategies must give energy efficiency highest priority combined with an accelerated market introduction of renewables ("integrated strategy"). Under these conditions hydrogen will play a major role not before 2030 using natural gas as a bridge to renewable hydrogen. Against the background of an ambitious CO2-reduction goal which is under discussion in Germany the potentials for efficiency increase, the necessary structural change of the power plant system (corresponding to the decision to phase out nuclear energy, the transformation of the transportation sector and the market implementation order of renewable energies ("following efficiency guidelines first for electricity generation purposes, than for heat generation and than for the transportation sector")) are analysed based on latest sustainable energy scenarios.
The contribution of the EU bioeconomy to sustainable development depends on how it is implemented. A high innovation potential is accompanied by considerable risks, in particular regarding the exacerbation of global land use conflicts. This article argues that a systemic monitoring system capable of connecting human-environment interactions and multiple scales of analysis in a dynamic way is needed to ensure that the EU bioeconomy transition meets overarching goals, like the Sustainable Development Goals. The monitoring should be centered around a dashboard of key indicators and targets covering environmental, economic, and social aspects of the bioeconomy. With a focus on the land dimension, this article examines the strengths and weakness of different economic, environmental and integrated models and methods for monitoring and forecasting the development of the EU bioeconomy. The state of research on key indicators and targets, as well as research needs to integrate these aspects into existing modeling approaches, are assessed. The article concludes with key criteria for a systemic bioeconomy monitoring system.
There's no decarbonisation without energy efficiency : but take care of the "rebound effects"
(2013)
As part of this dissertation, a categorisation of the social costs of electricity supply is suggested. The following three main cost categories are differentiated: plant-level costs, system costs and external costs. Different types of costs are allocated to these categories and are examined and quantified (to the extent possible) for several power generation technologies. The limits of monetizing certain types of costs are also discussed. In a further step, and based on a large number of empirical studies, individual factors that have had a significant influence on the development of plant-level costs in the past, are identified and categorized. Finally, based on an online survey conducted among energy modellers, the dissertation examines to what extent the identified relevant types of costs and cost-influencing factors are taken into account in different types of energy models.
Based on different current long-term energy scenarios the paper discusses the future perspectives of hydrogen in the German energy system as a representative example for the development of sustainable energy systems. The scenario analysis offers varying outlines of the future energy system that determine the possible role of hydrogen. The paper discusses the possibilities of expanding the share of renewable energy and the resulting prospects for establishing clean hydrogen production from renewable energy sources. Emphasis is given to the questions of an ecologically efficient allocation of limited renewable energy resources that can only be assessed from asystems analysis perspective. Findings from recent studies for Germany reveal a strong competition between the direct input into the electricity system and an indirect use as fuel in the transport sector. Moreover, the analysis underlines the paramount importance of reducing energy demand as the inevitable prerequisite for any renewable energy system.
The role of gender concerns in the planning of small-scale energy projects in developing countries
(2014)
The role of gender concerns in the planning of small-scale energy projects in developing countries
(2015)
How can renewable energy sources be efficiently integrated into the North African electricity systems? By using techno-economic modeling methods, this book explores optimized electricity system expansion pathways until the year 2030 for the five North African countries - Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt. The results indicate that renewable energy integration is actually a viable business case for the entire region, if wind and solar capacities are properly planned in conjunction with the conventional generation system and under consideration of the country-specific electricity supply-/demand patterns. Further aspects featured in this publication are the impact of renewable power on the transnational electricity transmission system and the question how decision making processes about renewable energy strategies can be improved in the North African context. The book is a contribution to the scientific literature about energy issues in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), but also seeks to address political and industrial practitioners concerned with the development of the region's renewable energy future.
The greenhouse gas balance
(2013)
The concept of regime and "flat ontologies" : empirical potential and methodological implications
(2012)
Technical summary
(2012)
Technical summary
(2015)
Sustainable strategies
(2014)
Sustainable energy systems
(2016)
"Sustainable Development" can be understood as a widely used discourse that has become even more prominent since the publication of the UN Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development in 2015. In this paper we analyze the way sustainable development discourse unfolds within the context of development aid in Germany by undertaking a discourse analysis of reports on development policy published 1973-2017 by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development. Our analysis reveals that the sustainable development discourse is characterized by distinct components and storylines that change over time. We detect, in general, a shift away from a focus on environmental protection toward an emphasis on the role of the private sector in leading sustainable development. We argue, therefore, that although development is now only legitimate if it is "sustainable", the discourse apparently facilitates the uneven allocation of development aid. The concern that arises here is that although Agenda 2030 pledges to take "bold and transformative steps" to secure the planet and to leave "no one behind" the least developed states who cannot provide "private sector opportunities" or fulfil "national self-responsibilities" for sustainable development are indeed being "left behind".
Summary for policymakers
(2012)
In rural areas, access to electricity is required for better living standard, enhance income options and reduce population migration. In last decades, steady progress has been made but the status of electrification significantly varies across countries. In developing countries, about 1.6 billion people live without electricity and another 2 billion have access but to an unreliable extent. Large population also live in remote areas where extension of grid is not feasible, where people continuing to live under distress conditions. International projections reveal that number of un-electrified people will remain same by the year 2030 if similar pace of electrification is continued in future.From this perspective, the study describes what bigger countries such as India, China and Brazil are doing and where rural electrification stands in priority in a poor country like Ethiopia. Is off-grid technologies show an option for such remote locations" The two case studies of Vietnam and South Africa reveal that work carried out through external support in the absence of national policies. As a result, people have experienced the benefits of technologies but unable to retain them in long term. Electricity has given various advantages but poor affordability of the people hinders the acceptance of technologies in rural areas.The study shows the need of a framework to achieve the long-term support for rural electrification. A framework that could direct the national priorities, understands social, economic and environmental aspects of off-grid technologies, identify key areas to be strengthen, allocates the roles and responsibilities at different working levels, maintains a consistent flow of adequate finance, pursue regular monitoring process and incorporate the monitoring results, or, critical success factors into the national policies to make them more effective. Both macro- as well as micro-level approaches have been suggested in this study.
The petrochemical industry is among the most relevant sectors from an economic, energetic and climate policy perspective. In Western Europe, production occurs in local chemical parks that form strongly connected and densely integrated regional clusters. This paper analyzes the structural characteristics of the petrochemical system in Germany and investigates three particularly distinct clusters regarding their challenges and chances for a transition towards climate-neutrality. For this, feedstock and energy supply, product portfolios and process integration as well as existing transformation activities are examined. We find that depending on their distinct network characteristics and location, unique and complex strategies are to be mastered for every cluster. Despite the many activities underway, none of them seems to have a strategic network to co-create a tailored defossilization strategy for the cluster - which is the core recommendation of this paper to develop.
In 1990 a sovereign wealth fund was founded in Norway in which the country invests surpluses from oil and gas industry sales. The fund is designed to secure the state's ability to act in a post-petroleum era. At the end of the 1990's the voice of Norwegian civil society insisted that the sovereign wealth fund should not only ensure intergenerational justice, but should also contribute to the implementation of values and norms of the present country. At the end of 2004 the parliament finally agreed upon ethical regulations for the investment of the sovereign wealth fund. Now the second largest sovereign wealth fund in the world only invests in businesses that adhere to those ethical regulations. In the present paper, I seek to illustrate the emergence and outcomes of this new development in the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund.
This doctoral research is located in the branch of sustainability sciences that has the realisation of sustainable development as its core subject of research. The most broadly accepted notion of sustainable development is that which evolves along the resolutions, declarations, and reports from international processes in the framework of the United Nations (UN). The consensual outputs from such processes feature global-generalised and context-free perspectives. However, implementation requires action at diverse and context-rich local levels as well. Moreover, while in such UN processes national states are the only contractual parties, it is increasingly recognised that other ("nonstate") actors are crucial to sustainability. The research presented here places the attention on bottom-up initiatives that are advancing innovative ways to tackle universal access to clean energy and to strengthen small-scale family farmers. This means, the focus is on bottom-up initiatives advancing local implementation of global sustainability targets, more precisely, targets that make part of the Sustainable Development Goals two and seven (SDG 2 and SDG7). The research asks how such bottom-up initiatives can contribute to the diffusion of sustainability innovations, thereby also contributing to social change.
We present an approach to simulate climate and energy policy for the EU, using a flexible and modular agent-based modelling approach and a toolbox, called the Energy Modelling Laboratory (EMLab). The paper shortly reviews core challenges and approaches for modelling climate and energy policy in light of the energy transition. Afterwards, we present an agent-based model of investment in power generation that has addressed a variety of European energy policy questions. We describe the development of a flexible model core as well as modules on carbon and renewables policies, capacity mechanisms, investment behaviour and representation of intermittent renewables. We present an overview of modelling results, ongoing projects, a case study on current reforms of the EU ETS, and we show their relevance in the EU context.
A promising candidate that may follow conventional vehicles with internal combustion engines combines hydrogen from regenerative sources of energy, fuelcells and an electric drive train. For early fleets introduced the refuelling infrastructure needs to be in place at least to the extent of the vehicles operational reach. The question arises which strategies may help to keep initial hydrogen and infrastructure cost low? Industrial production, distribution and use of hydrogen is well-established and the volumes handled are substantial. Even though today's industrialhydrogen is not in tune with the long-term sustainable vision, hydrogen production and infrastructure already in place might serve as a nucleus for putting that vision into practice. This contribution takes stock of industrial production and use of hydrogen in North Rhine-Westphalia based on a recently finalized project. It demonstrates to which extent industrial hydrogen could be used for a growing number of vehicles and at which time additional capacity might need to be installed.
Scientization : putting global climate change on the scientific agenda and the role of the IPCC
(2010)
Since the 1970s, climate change has dominated the international scientific and political agenda. In particular, the foundation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the end of the 1980s played a major role for the further enhancement of efforts in the field of climate change sciences. However, to understand the interaction of the worldwide coordination of climate change sciences as well as the role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and its consequences, it is worthwhile to take a look at the self-conception of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's tasks and work. This paper gives an idea of the history of international climate change science, its representation in public discourse and the role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by comprehensively illustrating its tasks, organization and self-image. Furthermore, the article tries to argue that the hitherto accepted concept of science followed within this body fails to integrate the idea of scientific ethics. It can be concluded that the conception of science represented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has heavily influenced worldwide attention to climate change, its becoming part of the political agenda as well as the ethical consequences.
Scenarios for the transition to a sustainable and climate protecting energy system in Germany
(2004)
The analysis of different global energy scenarios in part I of the report confirms that the exploitation of energy efficiency potentials and the use of renewable energies play a key role in reaching global CO2 reduction targets. An assessment on the basis of a broad literature research in part II shows that the technical potentials of renewable energy technologies are a multiple of today's global final energy consumption. The analysis of cost estimates for renewable electricity generation technologies and even long term cost projections across the key studies in part III demonstrates that assumptions are in reasonable agreement. In part IV it is shown that by implementing technical potentials for energy efficiency improvements in demand and supply sectors by 2050 can be limited to 48% of primary energy supply in IEA's "Energy Technology Perspectives" baseline scenario. It was found that a large potential for cost-effective measures exists, equivalent to around 55-60% of energy savings of all included efficiency measures (part V). The results of the analysis on behavioural changes in part VI show that behavioural dimensions are not sufficiently included in energy scenarios. Accordingly major research challenges are revealed.
Renewables and off-grid rural electrification in developing countries : dimensions and trends
(2005)
Scenarios for the future of renewable energy through 2050 are reviewed to explore how much renewable energy is considered possible or desirable and to inform policymaking. Existing policy targets for 2010 and 2020 are also reviewed for comparison. Common indicators are shares of primary energy, electricity, heat, and transport fuels from renewables. Global, Europe-wide, and country-specific scenarios show 10% to 50% shares of primary energy from renewables by 2050. By 2020, many targets and scenarios show 20% to 35% share of electricity from renewables, increasing to the range 50% to 80% by 2050 under the highest scenarios. Carbon-constrained scenarios for stabilization of emissions or atmospheric concentration depict trade-offs between renewables, nuclear power, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) from coal, most with high energy efficiency. Scenario outcomes differ depending on degree of future policy action, fuel prices, carbon prices, technology cost reductions, and aggregate energy demand, with resource constraints mainly for biomass and biofuels.
Renewable energy can become the major energy supply option in low-carbon energy economies. Disruptive transformations in all energy systems are necessary for tapping widely available renewable energy resources. Organizing the energy transition from non-sustainable to renewable energy is often described as the major challenge of the first half of the 21st century. Technological innovation, the economy (costs and prices) and policies have to be aligned to achieve full renewable energy potentials, and barriers impeding that growth need to be removed. These issues are also covered by IPCC's special report on renewable energy and climate change to be completed in 2010. This article focuses on the interrelations among the drivers. It clarifies definitions of costs and prices, and of barriers. After reviewing how the third and fourth assessment reports of IPCC cover mitigation potentials and commenting on definitions of renewable energy potentials in the literature, we propose a consistent set of potentials of renewable energy supplies.
Recent trends in the German CCS debate : new players, arguments and legal framework conditions
(2010)
"Energiewende", which roughly translates as the transformation of the German energy sector in accordance with the imperatives of climate change, may soon become a byword for the corresponding processes most other developed countries are at various stages of undergoing. Germany's notable progress in this area offers valuable insights that other states can draw on in implementing their own transitions. The German state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) is making its own contribution to achieving the Energiewende's ambitious objectives: in addition to funding an array of "clean and green" projects, the Virtual Institute Power to Gas and Heat was established as a consortium of seven scientific and technical organizations whose aim is to inscribe a future, renewable-based German energy system with adequate flexibility. Thus, it is tasked with conceiving of and evaluating suitable energy path options. This paper outlines one of the most promising of these pathways, which is predicated on the use of electrolytically-produced hydrogen as an energy storage medium, as well as the replacement of hydrocarbon-based fuel for most road vehicles. We describe and evaluate this path and place it in a systemic context, outlining a case study from which other countries and federated jurisdictions therein may draw inspiration.
Because of a growing dependence on oil imports, powerful industrial, political and societal stakeholders in the UnitedStates are trying to enhance national energy security through the conversion of domestic coal into synthetic hydrocarbon liquid fuels - so-called coal-to-liquids (CtL) processes. However, because of the technology's high costs and carbon intensity, its market deployment is strongly affected by the US energy, technology and climate policy setting. This paper analyses and discusses policy drivers and barriers for CtL technologies in the United States and reaches the conclusion that an increasing awareness of global warming among US policy-makers raises the requirements for the technology's environmental performance and, thus, limits its potential to regional niche markets in coal-producing states or strategic markets, such as the military, with specific security and fuel requirements.