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This report analyses the international climate negotiations at the UN climate conference in Warsaw in November 2013. The report covers the discussions under the Durban Platform on developing a new comprehensive climate agreement by 2015 and increasing short-term ambition as well as the issues relating to near-term implementation of previous decisions in the areas of emission reductions and transparency, adaptation, loss and damage, finance and technology. The report concludes that Warsaw once again starkly highlighted the sharp divisions and lack of trust among countries. Industrialised countries' collective lack of leadership strongly contributed to re-opening the traditional North-South divide. As a result, on many issues the outcomes hardly go beyond the lowest common denominator. The conference only agreed on the bare minimum to move the 2015 process forward and also made no headway in strengthening short-term ambition. Some progress was made with the establishment of the "Warsaw international mechanism for loss and damage associated with climate change impacts" and the completion of the rules for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. However, here as well further substance, in particular financial support from industrialised countries, is required to actually fill these mechanisms with meaning. If countries want to escape from groundhog day, they will have to start seeing and utilizing the UN climate process rather differently.
Seit 2005 laufen die UN-Verhandlungen über ein neues Klima-Abkommen für die Zeit nach der ersten Verpflichtungsperiode des Kyoto-Protokolls nach 2012. Vom 1. bis 12. Juni 2009 findet in Bonn die nächste Runde statt. Da der Verlauf bisheriger Verhandlungen nur sehr schleppend war, wird die Zeit langsam knapp, um wie geplant bis zum Klimagipfel in Kopenhagen im Dezember einen Abschluss zu erreichen. Das Wuppertal Institut hat einen Vorschlag erarbeitet, wie eine ökologisch effektive und international gerechte Vereinbarung aussehen könnte. Dieser umfasst alle so genannten "Building Blocks" des internationalen Klimaregimes, für die in Kopenhagen wichtige Entscheidungen über die Verpflichtungsperiode nach 2012 getroffen werden sollen. Dies sind eine gemeinsame Vorstellung aller Staaten über die künftigen weltweiten Minderungen von Treibhausgasemissionen, Minderungsziele der Industrieländer und Maßnahmen der Entwicklungsländer, deren Finanzierung, Anpassung an den Klimawandel sowie die Verhinderung von CO2-Emissionen durch Waldrodung.
Ein Entwurf für eine ausführliche Fassung des Vorschlags in englischer Sprache wird bei den Bonner Klimagesprächen vorgestellt.
Die Suche nach einem Ausweg aus den festgefahrenen Klima- verhandlungen ist derzeit eine der wichtigsten Aufgaben der internationalen Politik. Franz Josef Radermacher (2013) versucht, so einen Weg aus dem Politikstau aufzuzeigen: In verstärktem Ausmaß sollten Privatakteure eingebunden werden und Klimaschutzmaßnahmen finanzieren, weil die internationale Staatengemeinschaft bisher daran gescheitert sei, ein Folgeabkommen für das Kyoto-Protokoll abzuschließen. Von der Staatengemeinschaft verlangt Radermacher nur noch, überhaupt irgendein Abkommen zuwege zu bringen, das die globalen Emissionen zumindest einigermaßen deckelt. Weitere Emissionsreduktionen, die "Verhandlungslücke", sollen Unternehmen und Privatpersonen übernehmen, indem sie freiwillig Emissionszertifikate im Umfang von mehreren hundert Milliarden Tonnen CO2 kaufen und stilllegen. Darüber hinaus sollen weitere 150 Milliarden Tonnen CO2 über Aufforstungsprojekte aus der Atmosphäre herausgeholt werden (Sequestrierung).
UN-Klimagipfel bereitet Boden für Kopenhagen-Abkommen : Beschlüsse von Poznan finden geteiltes Echo
(2009)
Also in the global South, transport already significantly contributes to climate change and has high growth rates. Further rapid motorisation of countries in Asia and Latin America could counteract any climate efforts and aggravate problems of noxious emissions, noise and congestion.
This Paper aims at connecting the need for transport actions in developing countries to the international negotiations on a post-2012 climate change agreement. It outlines the decisions to be taken in Copenhagen and the preparations to adequately implement these decisions from 2013. Arguing, that a sustainable transport approach needs to set up comprehensive policy packages, the paper assesses the substance of current climate negotiations against the fit to sustainable transport. It concludes that the transport sector's importance should be highlighted and a significant contribution to mitigation efforts required.
Combining the two perspectives lead to several concrete suggestions: Existing elements of the carbon market should be improved (e.g. discounting), but an upscale of the carbon market would not be an appropriate solution. Due to a lack of additionality, offsetting industrialised countries' targets would finally undermine the overall success of the climate agreement. Instead, a mitigation fund should be established under the UNFCCC and financed by industrialised countries. This fund should explicitly enable developing countries to implement national sustainable development transport and mobility policies as well as local projects. While industrialized countries would set up target achievement plans, developing countries should outline low carbon development strategies, including a section on transport policy.
Towards an effective and equitable climate change agreement : a Wuppertal proposal for Copenhagen
(2009)
This paper presents comprehensive proposals for the post-2012 climate regime: the scale of the challenge, emission targets for industrialised countries, increased actions by Southern countries, financing, technology, adaptation and deforestation. The proposals are based on ongoing research by the Wuppertal Institute.
The Durban Climate Conference agreed on the creation of a new market-based mechanism under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and to consider the establishment of an overall framework for various mitigation approaches, including opportunities for using markets ("Framework"). The creation of such a Framework is therefore of high political significance, as it should ensure on the one hand that new market-based mechanisms contribute to global climate change mitigation and to achievement of targets, and on the other hand, that different market-based approaches can be integrated in a global carbon market. As yet, there is little clarity as to the roles and design of such a framework. This paper contributes to the debate by discussing and evaluating inter alia several design options, and explores how the various options could be implemented and how they interrelate. It concludes that a strong central oversight at the level of the UNFCCC is probably the only option that could reassure the vast majority of UNFCCC Parties that the environmental integrity of new market-based mechanisms is in fact ensured. This does, however, not exclude that some reasonable balance may be struck between centralization and flexibility.
Time for pilots : discussions on new market-based mechanisms show little movement of positions
(2013)
The sectoral clean development mechanism : a contribution from a sustainable transport perspective
(2007)
The United Nations climate change conference in Nairobi came at the end of a year where public awareness of climate change had reached unprecedented heights. Nonetheless, the conference proceeded with its usual diplomatic ritual, apparently unaffected by time pressure. While it did see some progress on important issues for developing countries such as the Adaptation Fund, the Nairobi Work Programme on Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation to Climate Change, and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), on questions regarding the future of the regime it proved to be at best a confidence-building session that served to hear further views. More serious work on the future of the regime must therefore be expected of the next Conferences of the Parties.
This article by Wolfgang Sterk, Hermann E. Ott, Rie Watanabe and Bettina Wittneben summarises the results of the conference.
After two weeks of negotiations, climate diplomats completed the implementation of the Protocol, refined some of its instruments for implementation and agreed on processes for moving forward beyond the first Kyoto commitment period. The report by the Wuppertal Institute provides an overview and assessment of the agreements reached in Montreal.
There is an extensive potential for GHG emission reductions in the new EU member states and the EU accession countries by improving energy efficiency, investing in renewable energy supply and other measures, part of which could be tapped by JI. However, the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and especially the recently adopted "Linking Directive" is probably going to have a significant impact on this JI potential. Especially two provisions are important:
The baseline of a project has to be based on the acquis communautaire, the environmental regulations of which are substantially higher than the Accession Countries' existing ones. Projects, which directly or indirectly reduce emissions from installations falling within the scope of the EU ETS, can only generate certificates if an equal number of EU allowances are cancelled. JI is thus put into direct competition with the EU ETS. In this paper we analyse the impact of these provisions first in theory and then country by country for six Central and East European countries that recently acceded the EU or are candidates for accession. As a result, we give an overview of the potential and the limitations of JI as an instrument for achieving emission reductions in the selected Accession Countries and provide important overview information to policy makers.
The international climate negotiations have seen endless struggles between countries from South and North for almost 17 years, ever since the initiation of negotiations by the International Negotiation Committee (INC) for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The 13th meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC and the 3rd meeting of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (COP 13 / CMP 3) held in Bali in December 2007 (the Bali conference) could mark the beginning of a rapprochement. Parties agreed on initiating a new "Ad-hoc working group on Long-Term Cooperative Action under the Convention" (AWG-LCA) that aims to negotiate a post-2012 agreement with participation of all parties, including the US and developing countries, by the end of 2009 at COP 15 / CMP 5 in Copenhagen. This article examines the outcomes of the Bali conference, focussing on the negotiations regarding post-2012, flexible mechanisms, financial mechanisms, technology transfer and deforestation. Finally, the article concludes that the Bali Conference saw a significant shift in the battle lines, a rearrangement of positions and alliances that might well announce a decisive new era in global climate policy and provides a real chance to agree on an effective and workable post-2012 agreement in Copenhagen.
What is the significance of the 2007 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bali? The formal outcomes, especially the "Bali Action Plan", are described and commented on, along with the challenges for negotiating a post-2012 agreement in Copenhagen during 2008 and 2009. The article concludes that the outcome of the Bali meeting is insufficient when compared to the nature of the challenge posed by climate change. However, it can nevertheless be considered a success in terms of "Realpolitik" in paving the way for the negotiations ahead, because some real changes have been discerned in the political landscape. The challenges for the road towards Copenhagen are manifold: the sheer volume and complexity of the issues and the far-reaching nature of decisions such as differentiation between non-Annex I countries pose significant challenges in themselves, while the dependency on the electoral process in the USA introduces a high element of risk into the whole process. The emergence of social justice as an issue turns climate policy into an endeavour to improve the world at large - thereby adding to the complexity. And, finally, the biggest challenge is the recognition that the climate problem requires a global solution, that Annex I and non-Annex I countries are mutually dependent on each other and that only cooperation regarding technology in combination with significant financial support will provide the chance to successfully tackle climate change.
The report surveys current proposals and positions on issues such as differentiated participation of countries in the new agreement, a differentiated spectrum of commitments, effort sharing and options for how to organise the negotiation process. The report finds that for the level of participation, the selection of commitment types, and choice of effort-sharing approaches there is no silver bullet. A portfolio approach that incorporates multiple options may be most suited to ensure environmental effectiveness, cost- effectiveness and political feasibility.
This report analyses the international climate negotiations that took place at the 15th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC held in Copenhagen in December 2009. It lays out the main issues at stake in the negotiations, contrasts divergences in interests amongst negotiating parties, and summarises the results achieved in Copenhagen. The report discusses these results in detail and concludes with an outlook on how the challenges ahead could be overcome.
Sinnvolle Weiterentwicklung oder Holzweg? : Sektorale Ansätze für den Clean Development Mechanism
(2008)
This report analyses the international climate negotiations at the UN climate conference in Doha in December 2012. The report is structured along the three main tracks of the negotiations: the agreement on a second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol, the closure of the Ad-hoc Working Group on Long-Term Cooperative Action under the Convention, and the start of negotiations on a new comprehensive climate agreement that are to be concluded by 2015.
Seit der Verabschiedung des Kyoto-Protokolls gilt die Etablierung eines harmonisierten internationalen Emissionshandelssystems Vielen als wesentliches Instrument im Kampf gegen den Klimawandel. So ist dies eines der Hauptziele der internationalen Klimapolitik der EU. Tatsächlich gestaltet sich die direkte Verknüpfung der verschiedenen Emissionshandelssysteme jedoch schwierig. Zu unterschiedlich sind die Mechanismen und Ziele, wie anhand verschiedener Beispiele deutlich wird. In der Praxis ist daher zunächst eher ein Mosaik mehr oder weniger stark voneinander abweichender nationaler Systeme zu erwarten. Deren indirekte Verbindung über die flexiblen Mechanismen des Kyoto-Protokolls (JI und CDM) könnte jedoch für eine Angleichung der Zertifikatpreise sorgen.
REDD crediting vs. REDD funds : how avoided deforestation under the UNFCCC should be financed
(2010)
Proposals for contributions of emerging economies to the climate regime under the UNFCCC post 2012
(2008)
Under the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities” (Article 3.1 of the UNFCCC) non-Annex I parties have so far been exempted from emission limitation or reduction commitments. However, the pressure is mounting on those countries, especially major emitting developing countries, to contribute actively to the mitigation of climate change. Participation by these developing countries in a future international climate regime is often called for, but it is usually unclear how and how much these countries should participate, what kind of support they need and in which sectors. This project aims to provide a more detailed view on six countries to understand how they could best make a contribution to the regime and how they could best be supported in limiting their greenhouse gas emissions.
This report analyses the international climate negotiations that took place at the 16th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC held in Cancún in December 2010. It discusses the negotiation process on the following central "building blocks" of the negotiations: the legal form of a future agreement, mitigation, measuring, reporting and verification, adaptation, finance, technology and reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD). The report discusses the results in detail and concludes with an outlook on how the challenges ahead could be overcome.
Pit stop Poznan : an analysis of negotiations on the Bali action plan at the stopover to Copenhagen
(2009)
This paper analyzes the international climate negotiations that took place at the 14th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (COP) and the 4th Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP) held in Poznan, December 1–12, 2008. It works out the main issues at stake in the negotiations, contrasts divergences in interests amongst negotiating Parties, and summarizes the main results achieved in Poznan. Furthermore, it contextualizes the Poznan negotiations within the broader political and economic context, which has shaped climate policy making throughout 2008. The paper ends with an outlook on the tasks ahead in 2009, until the next COP/CMP in December 2009 in Copenhagen.
This report analyses the international climate negotiations at the UN climate conference in Durban in December 2011. The conference revolved around two key sets of issues: What will be the overarching long-term framework of international climate policy and what near-term action will be taken to combat climate change? Accordingly, the first part of the report is devoted to the negotiations and outcome on the legal form of the future climate regime while the second part discusses near-term action along the "building blocks" of the Bali Action Plan.
The Durban conference decided to establish a new market-based mechanism that is to cover a broad segment of a country's economy. The implementation details are to be agreed at this year's conference in Qatar. The question is, however, which developing countries would actually be able to implement such a new mechanism. The introduction of the EU emission trading system highlighted the many challenges that even advanced developed countries face when establishing a carbon market. This paper by Wolfgang Sterk and Florian Mersmann therefore aims to explore the essential prerequisites for the implementation of new market mechanisms (NMM). In addition to a theoretical discussion it considers the cases of China and Mexico.
The barriers to linking greenhouse gas cap-and-trade schemes are assessed, based on an analysis of existing and emerging trading schemes, including those in the USA, Japan, Australia, New Zealand and the EU. The feasibility of different forms of linking and the time frames for their implementation are examined. In particular, the barriers to direct bilateral linking are considered. It was found that only a few direct bilateral links will be viable in the short term, due to the divergent policy priorities of different nations and regions, reflected in critical design features, such as costcontainment measures. However, in the short term, cap-and-trade markets will very likely be indirectly linked via unilateral links to the CDM or new crediting mechanisms, which may be adopted within a successor treaty to the Kyoto Protocol. In order to ensure a harmonization of critical design elements in the mid to long term, early institutional cooperation may become necessary. Necessary policy steps and the appropriate institutional framework for such harmonization and, overtime, further integration of trading schemes are briefly delineated.
The first Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (MOP 1) took place from 28 November to 10 December 2005 in Montreal, in conjunction with the eleventh meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 11). This meeting signifies a successful start into a new era of international climate policy: The Kyoto Protocol, which in the past had been sometimes declared as being dead, has become operational.
The challenges of the meeting were framed along the "Three Is", Implementation, Improvement and Innovation. The first challenge (Implementation) entailed in particular the adoption of the Marrakesh Accords, the agreements reached at COP 7 in Marrakesh that set out the detailed rules for making the Kyoto Protocol operational. The second challenge (Improvement) referred to improving the work of the Framework Convention and the Kyoto Protocol in the near future. The third and most important challenge (Innovation) referred to the further evolution of the regime.
This article by Bettina Wittneben, Wolfgang Sterk, Hermann E. Ott und Bernd Brouns provides an account of the main developments in Montreal along the lines of the "Three Is". The paper concludes with an assessment and outlook on international climate policy.
Aufgrund der asymmetrischen Struktur von Ursache und Wirkung (historische Hauptverursacher im Norden, besondere Verwundbarkeit des Südens) und aufgrund der schnell aufholenden Entwicklung der Schwellenländer sind vor allem die Nord-Süd-Beziehungen ein entscheidender Faktor bei der Bewältigung des Klimaproblems. Die "alten", traditionellen Industriestaaten werden die sich industrialisierenden Staaten des Südens nur dann zu eigenen Minderungsleistungen bewegen können, wenn sie - neben eigenen ambitionierten Reduktionen - auch in hohem Maße die Minderungsmaßnahmen im Süden finanzieren und die ärmeren Staaten bei der Anpassung unterstützen. Technologische Unterstützung und Finanzierung sind deshalb bei der internationalen Klimakonferenz (COP13) in Bali im Jahr 2007 zu einem Kernprojekt für die post-2012-Verhandlungen geworden.
Selbst konservative Schätzungen rechnen mit mehreren Dutzend Milliarden US-Dollar für die Minderung des Treibhausgasausstoßes und für Anpassungsmaßnahmen pro Jahr. Es ist daher nötig, bei der Finanzierung der Bekämpfung des Klimawandels nicht allein auf staatliche Mittel zu setzen, sondern auch private Mittel verstärkt mit einzubeziehen.
Diese Kurzstudie, die für das Bundesministerium für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung (BMZ) Anfang 2008 erstellt wurde, bietet eine Aufstellung und Bewertung der bestehenden Finanzierungsoptionen auf multilateraler (und zum Teil bilateraler) Ebene, sowie eine Darstellung von in der Planung befindlichen Instrumenten und innovativer Vorschläge für neue Formen der Zusammenarbeit von staatlichen und privaten Akteuren.
While the number of projects under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is expanding rapidly, there currently are relatively few transport projects in the global CDM portfolio. This article examines existing CDM transport projects and explores whether sectoral approaches to the CDM may provide a better framework for transport than the current project‐based CDM. We ask: Would a sectoral approach to the CDM promote the structural change and integrated policymaking needed to achieve sustainable transport policy, making it hence more desirable than the framework of the current project‐based CDM? We conclude that it is possible to design sectoral transport activities within clear project boundaries that fit into a framework of a programmatic or policy‐based CDM. Although we are able to ascertain that transport policy research yields several modelling tools to address the methodological requirements of the CDM, it becomes apparent that sectoral approaches will accentuate transport projects' problems regarding high complexity and related uncertainties. The CDM may need new rules to manage these risks. Nonetheless, sectoral approaches allow the scaling up of activities to a level that affects long‐term structural change.
As part of the discussion on a new international climate agreement, which is supposed to be concluded by 2015, the European Commission conducted a stakeholder consultation, to which the Wuppertal Institute contributed. The Wuppertal Institute suggests that Parties should revisit the widely shared assumption that there is a trade-off between climate protection and economic well-being. The problem is not so much the macro-economic outlook. The problem is that climate policy causes substantial distributional impacts and thus naturally leads to resistance. The Wuppertal Institute recommends to reconsider the political wisdom of the quantity-based approach that climate policy has so far been based on. As long as emissions are seen as inextricably linked to economic well-being, framing commitments in terms of emission reductions directly triggers the perspective of seeing climate protection as an economic loss. Commitments should ideally be multi-dimensional. Possible types of commitments to consider may include scaling up certain climate-friendly technologies, improving energy efficiency, limiting fossil fuel use and fossil fuel extraction, or emission price commitments. The strongest mobilisation of political support might perhaps be achieved by framing commitments as a joint international undertaking to provide universal access to sustainable energy services by a specific date.