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This article analyses the human rights implications of projects under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). While the CDM is likely to expire in the near future, the experience gained should be used to inform the rules of the new mechanism to be established under the 2015 Paris Agreement. We argue that the CDM and the new mechanism, as international organizations under the guidance of UNFCCC member states, should apply the UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights. Based on the experience drawn from three case studies (two hydro power projects in Barro Blanco, Panama, and Bujagali, Uganda, and one geothermal energy project in Olkaria, Kenya), we show that CDM projects, while in formal compliance with CDM rules, can lead to a number of human rights infringements. We conclude with a number of recommendations on how to achieve a greater recognition of human rights in the new mechanism under the Paris Agreement.
Two for one : integrating the sustainable development agenda with international climate policy
(2017)
2015 was a watershed for international sustainability governance. With the Paris climate agreement and Agenda 2030, the international community adopted new targets and processes which are to guide policy for decades to come. Both emphasise the need for integration. In practice, however, climate change and sustainable development have so far been siloed issues.
Shaping the Paris mechanisms part III : an update on submissions on article 6 of the Paris Agreement
(2017)
At the 46th meeting of the UNFCCC's subsidiary bodies in Bonn, it was decided that Parties submit their input on selected aspects of the Art. 6 negotiations shortly before COP 23, taking place in Bonn in early November. This Policy Paper summarises the views submitted in October 2017 to identify points of controversy and convergence. It builds on previous papers summarising the views submitted in September 2016 and March 2017, respectively.
Global climate
(2017)
On 7-18 November, the twenty-second Conference of the Parties (COP-22) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the twelfth Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP-12) took place in Marrakech. Due to the rapid entry into force of the Paris Agreement, Marrakech also hosted the first Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA-1). Nobody had expected this one year before in Paris - the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol, by comparison, had taken eight years. Many hailed the rapid entry into force as further proof of the commitment of the world community to finally tackle the climate problem.
From 7 to 18 November 2016, the twenty-second Conference of the Parties (COP22) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) took place in Marrakech. Due to the early entry into force of the Paris Agreement, Marrakech also hosted the first Conference of the Parties serving as Meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA1). Researchers from the Wuppertal Institute observed the conference and elaborated a detailed analysis of the results. The report starts by discussing developments regarding the implementation of the Paris Agreement, in particular the detailed "rulebook" and cooperative mechanisms. Next, the article discusses developments in the various avenues for raising climate ambition that have been put in place by the Paris conference: the 2018 facilitative dialogue, the engagement of non-state and sub-national actors, and the elaboration of mid-century climate strategies. In addition, the article discusses other Marrakech developments, in particular on issues of climate finance and adaptation, as well as recent developments in the wider world that have an impact on the UNFCCC, in particular developing alliances, developments in the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) and under the Montreal Protocol, and possible repercussions of the US presidential election.
Global climate
(2017)
On 12 December, the twenty-first Conference of Parties (COP-21) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted the Paris Agreement. This marked the conclusion of the long process of crafting a new international climate regime that began with the adoption of the Bali Roadmap in 2007, failed spectacularly in Copenhagen in 2009, and resumed with a new approach in Durban 2011. This article summarizes and analyzes the main contents of the Paris Agreement.
Shaping the Paris mechanisms part II : an update on submissions on article 6 of the Paris Agreement
(2017)
Article 6 of the Paris Agreement established three approaches for countries to cooperate with each other: cooperative approaches under Art. 6.2, a new mechanism to promote mitigation and sustainable development under Art. 6.4, and a framework for non-market approaches under Art. 6.8. Detailed rules for these three approaches are currently being negotiated.
This Policy Paper summarises the views submitted by Parties in March 2017 to identify points of controversy and convergence. It builds on a previous paper which summarised views submitted in September 2016.
Compared to the 2016 round of submissions, some conceptual advances can be noted. However, a number of issues continue to be controversial with little indication of a convergence of views.
Article 6 of the Paris Agreement establishes three approaches for countries to cooperate with each other in implementing their climate protection contributions. However, Article 6 sketches out only some basic contours; the details are to be filled in by further negotiations. This article surveys the views countries have submitted so far in order to identify the main issues at stake, points of controvery and convergence and possible ways forward. The submissions reveal some sharp differences in opinions on key issues such as the scope of the new mechanisms, how to operationalise the Article 6 requirement to increase ambition, whether to have international provisions on the promotion of sustainable development, and how to protect environmental integrity in the use of Article 6. The article concludes with a number of recommendations on how to address these controversies.
The contribution of the EU bioeconomy to sustainable development depends on how it is implemented. A high innovation potential is accompanied by considerable risks, in particular regarding the exacerbation of global land use conflicts. This article argues that a systemic monitoring system capable of connecting human-environment interactions and multiple scales of analysis in a dynamic way is needed to ensure that the EU bioeconomy transition meets overarching goals, like the Sustainable Development Goals. The monitoring should be centered around a dashboard of key indicators and targets covering environmental, economic, and social aspects of the bioeconomy. With a focus on the land dimension, this article examines the strengths and weakness of different economic, environmental and integrated models and methods for monitoring and forecasting the development of the EU bioeconomy. The state of research on key indicators and targets, as well as research needs to integrate these aspects into existing modeling approaches, are assessed. The article concludes with key criteria for a systemic bioeconomy monitoring system.
Renewable energy targets in the European Union (EU) have raised the demand for timber and are expected to increase dependence on imports. However, EU timber consumption levels are already disproportionally high compared to the rest of the world. The question is, how much timber is available for the EU to sustainably harvest and import, in particular considering sustainable forest management practices, a safe operating space for land-system change, and the global distribution of "common good" resources. This article approaches this question from a supply angle to develop a reference value range for the current as well as future sustainable supply of timber at the EU-27 and global levels. For current supply estimates, national-level data on forest area available for wood supply, productivity in that area, as well as the rate available for harvest were collected and aggregated into three potential supply scenarios. For future supply estimates, a safe operating space scenario halting land use change, a sensitivity analysis, and a literature review were performed. To provide both a comparison of global versus EU sustainable supply capacities and to develop a benchmark toward evaluating and comparing levels of consumption to sustainable supply capacities, per capita calculations were made. Results revealed that the per capita sustainable supply potential of EU forests is estimated to be around three times higher than the global average in 2050. Whether a global or EU reference value is more appropriate for EU policy orientation, considering both strengthened economic and cultural ties to the forest in forest-rich countries as well as the need to prevent problem shifting associated with exporting land demands abroad, is discussed. Further research is needed to strengthen and harmonize data, improve methods for modeling future scenarios and incorporate interdisciplinary and multi-stakeholder perspectives toward the development of robust and politically relevant reference values for sustainable consumption levels.
The growing demand for wood to meet EU renewable energy targets has increasingly come under scrutiny for potentially increasing EU import dependence and inducing land use change abroad, with associated impacts on the climate and biodiversity. This article builds on research accounting for levels of primary timber consumption - e.g., toward forest footprints - and developing reference values for benchmarking sustainability - e.g., toward land use targets - in order to improve systemic monitoring of timber and forest use. Specifically, it looks at future trends to assess how current EU policy may impact forests at an EU and global scale. Future demand scenarios are based on projections derived and adapted from the literature to depict developments under different scenario assumptions. Results reveal that by 2030, EU consumption levels on a per capita basis are estimated to be increasingly disproportionate compared to the rest of the world. EU consumption scenarios based on meeting around a 40% share of the EU renewable energy targets with timber would overshoot both the EU and global reference value range for sustainable supply capacities in 2030. Overall, findings support literature pointing to an increased risk of problem shifting relating to both how much and where timber needed for meeting renewable energy targets is sourced. It is argued that a sustainable level of timber consumption should be characterized by balance between supply (what the forest can provide on a sustainable basis) and demand (how much is used on a per capita basis, considering the concept of fair shares). To this end, future research should close data gaps, increase methodological robustness and address the socio-political legitimacy of the safe operating space concept towards targets in the future. A re-use of timber within the economy should be supported to increase supply options.
Szenarien spielten und spielen eine zentrale Rolle für die Gestaltung der Energiewende. Sie beschreiben dabei auf konsistente Weise die mögliche zukünftige Entwicklung des Systems unter bestmöglicher Berücksichtigung des aktuellen Wissens bezüglich des Systems, d.h. der internen Abhängigkeiten und Wechselwirkungen der Systemkomponenten, aber auch die Abhängigkeit der Systementwicklung von äußeren Faktoren. Damit liefern Szenarien Leitplanken für zentrale technisch-strukturelle, energiepolitische, ökonomische und gesellschaftliche Weichenstellungen, die einen zielgerichteten Transformationsprozess flankieren müssen.
Vision development towards a sustainable North Rhine-Westphalia 2030 in a science-practice-dialogue
(2017)
The paper presents the results of a participatory vision development process in the Federal State of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) in Germany. The vision development was part of a scientific research project that accompanied the development of a sustainability strategy for NRW at state level. The Sustainability Strategy NRW was adopted in July 2016 and contains parts of the vision developed in the research project: Sentences from the narrative text vision and proposed targets and indicators that back-up the vision for a sustainable NRW in 2030 were used by the state of NRW. The vision was developed in iterative steps in three consecutive dialogue rounds with different stakeholders from science and practice. The paper presents the methodological approach and the results of the vision formulation process. The paper discusses the lessons learned from the vision development - from both practical and theoretical perspectives of transition management. The paper explores the relevance of setting ambitious targets for sustainable development as part of a state strategy by taking the proposed target of a "4 × 25% modal split" by 2030 as an example. The project demonstrated that a participatory approach for vision development is time and resource consuming, but worth the effort as it improves the quality and acceptance of a vision. Furthermore, the project demonstrated that transformative science contributes valuable inputs for sustainability transitions and for facilitating participatory vision development.
Im Rahmen des Forschungsclusters "Transformation Industrieller Infrastrukturen" des Virtuellen Instituts "Transformation - Energiewende NRW" haben sich Helena Mölter, Georg Kobiela, Daniel Vallentin und Timon Wehnert vom Wuppertal Institut mit Formaten zur Unterstützung von Transformations- und Innovationsprozessen in Unternehmen beschäftigt. Die Energiewende stellt nicht nur eine Herausforderung für Unternehmen dar, sondern bietet auch die Möglichkeit, zu Vorreitern der Dekarbonisierung zu werden. CO2-arme Produkte, Produktionsprozesse und Geschäftsmodelle können die Konkurrenzfähigkeit stärken. Doch was können Unternehmen tun, um die notwendigen Innovationen - auch in Kooperationen mit anderen - voranzutreiben? Dieser Frage nehmen sich die Autorinnen und Autoren in ihrer Studie an.
This paper analyses India's participation in more than two decades of global climate politics. India has transitioned from a protest voice on the fringes of global climate policy to one that is actively shaping international efforts to combat climate change. Analysis of the drivers behind India's negotiating positions on climate change thus far has focused on the competing motives of equity and co-benefits, which has however been insufficient to explain some of India's recent actions in global climate governance. There is a gap in the literature with regards to the analysis of Indian climate policy as situated in its larger foreign policy agenda and objectives. This paper studies the evolution of India's climate policy through the perspective of its broader foreign policy strategy, arguing that India's engagement with international climate politics can be better understood by locating its climate policy as a subset of its foreign policy agenda. Shifts in India's climate change negotiation stance in the past decade have been but a part of its overall foreign policy adjustments in favour of greater responsibility in management of the global commons. Going forward, tracking Indian foreign policy objectives will yield vital clues towards India’s role in global climate action.
Modelling studies which project pathways for the future of energy in India currently have several implicit assumptions with regards to the social, institutional, and political changes necessary for energy transitions. This paper focuses on the specific question of land use change required for realising ambitious clean energy targets. Demand for land is likely to be a critical question in India's energy future given the challenges with land acquisition in the country as a result of high population density and significant rights enjoyed by landowners. Yet, there is a lack of literature relevant to India which makes a quantitative assessment of the land use impacts of different types of low carbon technologies. I calculate and compare the land requirements in India of ground based solar photovoltaic (PV) power, nuclear power, and wind energy. All three types of technologies are expected to grow substantially as a share of India's electricity mix in the coming years. The analysis suggests that land demands of ground based solar PV are likely to be substantial compared to wind energy and nuclear power, and some policy suggestions are provided which may help mitigate that challenge.
Im Projekt KomRev werden effiziente Energienutzungs- und Versorgungskonzepte am Beispiel der Stadt Rheine entwickelt. Ziel war es, mit einer sinnvollen Vernetzung der Bereiche Strom, Wärme und Verkehr eine weitgehend CO2-"freie" Energieversorgung im Jahr 2050 zu erreichen. Das Forschungskonsortium bestand aus dem Solar-Institut Jülich der FH Aachen, dem Wuppertal Institut sowie dem Deutschen Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt.
The study analyses the country background, emissions trends, ongoing activities and barriers relating to the implementation of the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Indonesia under the UNFCCC. A special emphasis is laid on further mitigation potentials. Fields of mitigation assessed are land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) governance and monitoring as well as electricity demand and generation. A chapter is dedicated to the ongoing and planned increase in coal use - contrary to mitigation ambition in other fields - including an analysis of the economic role and local impacts of coal.
In order to analyse the mid- and long-term impacts of energy related policies, different modelling approaches can be derived. However, the results of even the best energy system model will highly depend on the underlying input data. First, in this contribution the importance and availability issues of grid data in the context of energy system modelling are highlighted. Second, this paper focuses on power grid modelling based on open and publicly available data from OpenStreetMap using open source software tools. Two recent approaches developed to build electrical transmission network models using openly available data sources are presented and discussed. The proposed methods provide transparent assumptions, simplifications and documentation of grid modelling. This results in the ability of scientists and other stakeholders to validate, discuss or reproduce the results of energy system models. Thus the new open approaches offer a unique opportunity to increase transparency, comparability and reproducibility of results in energy system modelling.
Technologiebericht 2.1 Zentrale Großkraftwerke innerhalb des Forschungsprojekts TF_Energiewende
(2017)
Gut 40 Jahre währt bereits die Auseinandersetzung um den Stopp des menschgemachten Klimawandels. Angesichts dessen fragen sich manche Aktivisten, ob dieser "Kampf" um die klimapolitischen Reduktionsziele, insbesondere beim Verbrauch fossiler Energieträger, noch zu gewinnen sei. Die Klimaengagierten aller Länder haben sich zwar vereinigt, aber es handelt sich doch, des ausbleibenden Erfolgs wegen, um eine in Teilen depressionsgeneigte Gemeinschaft. Jeremy Leggett, Mitstreiter der ersten Stunde, will mit seinem aktuellen Buch "The Winning of the Carbon War" dagegen Hoffnung und Zuversicht verbreiten. Ein Erfolg sei möglich und bereits in Ansätzen absehbar. Seine Erfahrungsbasis: Zugänge, die sich aus dem facettenreichen, beruflichen Weg des Autors ergeben. Wer ist dieser Jeremy Leggett und worauf fußt seine Expertise?
Transitions towards sustainability are urgently needed to address the interconnected challenges of economic development, ecological integrity, and social justice, from local to global scales. Around the world, collaborative science-society initiatives are forming to conduct experiments in support of sustainability transitions. Such experiments, if carefully designed, provide significant learning opportunities for making progress on transition efforts. Yet, there is no broadly applicable evaluative scheme available to capture this critical information across a large number of cases, and to guide the design of transition experiments. To address this gap, the article develops such a scheme, in a tentative form, drawing on evaluative research and sustainability transitions scholarship, alongside insights from empirical cases. We critically discuss the scheme's key features of being generic, comprehensive, operational, and formative. Furthermore, we invite scholars and practitioners to apply, reflect and further develop the proposed tentative scheme - making evaluation and experiments objects of learning.
Suffizienz wird als persönlicher Lebensstil hoch geschätzt. Als unentbehrlicher Teil zukunftsfähigen Lebens und Wirtschaftens wird sie aber erst Wirkung erlangen, wenn sie politisch durchgesetzt und damit verpflichtend wird. In einem ersten Text hat der Autor 30 Suffizienzpolitiken kartiert und begründet. Jetzt ist zu überlegen, auf welche Weise staatliche Maßnahmen dieser Art mit ihren Anreizen, aber eben auch mit ihren Grenzsetzungen und Verboten in der Wahlbevölkerung annehmbar werden können. Auch wenn Anordnungen des Staates verpflichtend sind, sind sie für ihre Wirksamkeit doch auf eine möglichst große Bereitschaft angewiesen, sie hinzunehmen und möglichst auch gutzuheißen und zu unterstützen. Schon darum, weil sonst Wege gesucht werden, diese Politiken zu umgehen, oder weil den Urhebern dieser Politiken bei den nächsten Wahlen das Vertrauen entzogen wird. Wie also sind Suffizienzpolitiken überzeugend zu begründen? Wie sind sie möglichst wirksam vorzustellen? Welche Widerstände sind zu erwarten? Was wiederum lässt sich tun, um die Abwehr zu überwinden?
Untersucht werden acht Politiken, um aus ihnen Merkmale für die Akzeptanz von Suffizienzpolitiken zu gewinnen. Die Beispiele sind in sich sehr unterschiedlich. Alle jedoch, ob gelungen, beabsichtigt oder bisher ohne Erfolg, lassen sich auf Auskünfte zum Thema dieser Arbeit hin befragen. Ein Schlusskapitel wertet sie aus und hält fest, was aus ihnen an Einsicht für die vor unserer Generation liegenden Aufgaben zu gewinnen ist. Das Ganze ist als eine Handreichung gedacht für politische Entscheiderinnen und Entscheider wie für aktive Bürger und Bürgerinnen.
Das Ziel der Studie erschließt sich aus der Idee, eine Übersicht über den Stand der Erkenntnisse in den Bereichen Ressourcenkonsum (t) und Ausgaben (€) sowie Zeitverwendung (h) mit Bezug auf Typologien (Wohnen, Mobilität, Ernährung) zu erhalten. Darauf basierend wurden Transitionlandkarten entwickelt, die eine offene Erschließung von Pfadveränderungen und Lösungswegen für nachhaltigere Konsumentscheidungen und Lebensstilveränderungen ermöglichen.
Against the background of environmental problems arising from the growing extraction of natural resources and resource depletion, achieving a sustainable development is an indispensable challenge in the twenty-first century. In this article we want to show how socio-technical and product-service innovations can change social practices - the routine doings in everyday life - and, thus, support transition of socio-technical systems. We introduce theoretical considerations on how social practice theories and the framework of the Multi-Level Perspective in transition research can be linked to better understand transition processes from a micro-macro-link perspective. We then present cases based on desk research in the field of practices in bathing, heating and nutrition to show how these have changed over the past decades. Building on this, examples of concepts for sustainable product-service-design in these areas are introduced as leverage points to change social practices in everyday life. These have been developed in research projects or design student seminar works, respectively. We argue that this implies sustainable product-service-systems should be developed in a user- and actor-integrated framework, such as Sustainable LivingLabs. The integration of users and other stakeholders into participatory co-creation processes enables tailored solutions that take actual routines and dependencies seriously into account.
This report examines the role of waste management in the context of a circular economy transition. Key challenges relate to moving beyond the perception of "waste as a problem" to "waste as a resource". To this end high levels of cooperation are needed between the waste industry and enterprises engaged in circular economy business models. Collecting high quality waste streams for re-use, remanufacturing and recycling also requires citizen engagement and integrated infrastructure development from the municipal to the EU level. Ultimately, both waste prevention as well as a widespread growth in circular economy activities will require a coherent and holistic approach that takes recovery options into account at every stage of the product life cycle. Co-benefits will include reducing environmental burden as well as creating both high-skilled and low-skilled jobs for an inclusive, green economy. In concrete terms, this report examines five waste streams identified in the EU's Circular Economy Action Plan: municipal waste, packaging waste, food waste, bio-waste and critical raw materials. It looks at the current state of policy development, presents trends and data comparing Member State performance, reviews the state of technological development, and assesses employment opportunities relevant to each waste stream in the overarching context of assessing progress toward the circular economy transition in the EU. Case studies of specific options for collecting and treating waste based on experiences in Denmark, Italy and Slovenia complement the more macro-level analysis of trends. Finally, key policy options are identified, in particular focused on ways to prevent waste, align circular economy and waste management objectives and improve the quality and reliability of indicators toward more robust monitoring.
Following the decisions of the Paris climate conference at the end of 2015 as well as similar announcements e.g. from the G7 in Elmau (Germany) in the summer of 2015, long-term strategies aiming at (almost) full decarbonisation of the energy systems increasingly move into the focus of climate and energy policy. Deep decarbonisation obviously requires a complete switch of energy supply towards zero GHG emission sources, such as renewable energy. A large number of both global as well as national climate change mitigation scenarios emphasize that energy efficiency will likewise play a key role in achieving deep decarbonization. However, the interdependencies between a transformation of energy supply on the one hand and the role of and prospects for energy efficiency on the other hand are rarely explored in detail.
This article explores these interdependencies based on a scenario for Germany that describes a future energy system relying entirely on renewable energy sources. Our analysis emphasizes that generally, considerable energy efficiency improvements on the demand side are required in order to have a realistic chance of transforming the German energy system towards 100 % renewables. Efficiency improvements are especially important if energy demand sectors will continue to require large amounts of liquid and gaseous fuels, as the production of these fuels are associated with considerable energy losses in a 100 % renewables future. Energy efficiency on the supply side will therefore differ considerably depending on how strongly the use of liquid and gaseous fuels in the various demand sectors can be substituted through the direct use of electricity. Apart from a general discussion of the role of energy efficiency in a 100 % renewable future, we also look at the role of and prospects for energy efficiency in each individual demand sector.
Participatory scenario processes : a tool for mutually shaping the future and social learning
(2017)
Food labels are able to support consumers in making more sustainable food choices in out-of-home consumption situations. Thereby, the effect of changing consumption behaviour depends on the format of food labels and on the information it provides. In order to assess the importance of the amount of information as well as the design of food labels displaying sustainability aspects, we test different formats of food labels using a best-worst choice design. So far, no research tested a variation of information depth while keeping label designs fixed. We find clear preferences across both dimensions. Results indicate that consumers regard labels with a higher information depth as more helpful in order to choose a sustainable meal. For the label design it became obvious that the slider-design is preferred over footprints and traffic light label design.
Sustainable out-of-home nutrition can help achieve overarching sustainability goals through a transformation in demands of consumers in this growing market. Studies indicate that individual food choice behaviours in out-of-home settings relate to a wide set of personal, social and situational factors. These factors can be influenced by various intervention strategies. In an expert meeting and a focus group we invited caterers and consumers to generate, discuss and evaluate various practical intervention ideas. Both parties largely perceive the explored ideas as useful and agree on key intervention ideas. Overall caterers and consumers state to prefer nudging strategies over information and participation interventions.
This paper outlines the key elements of a low-carbon stabilization pathway for land transport, focusing on the potential of key policy measures at the local and national level, opportunities for synergies of sustainable development and climate change objectives, and governance and institutional issues affecting the implementation of measures. It combines several approaches to provide an integrated view on the decarbonization of the transport sector based on recent literature. It will assess the quantitative basis potential climate change mitigation pathways and will then look into policy and institutional aspects that relate to the feasibility of these pathways. This combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis to measure the potential, options, and feasibility of climate change mitigation strategies in the transport sector aims to synthesize recent papers on the subject and draw conclusions for future research.
As the recent withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement has shown, political volatility directly affects climate change mitigation policies, in particular in sectors, such as transport associated with long-term investments by individuals (vehicles) and by local and national governments (urban form and transport infrastructure and services). There is a large potential for cost-effective solutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to improve the sustainability of the transport sector that is yet unexploited. Considering the cost-effectiveness and the potential for co-benefits, it is hard to understand why efficiency gains and CO2 emission reductions in the transport sector are still lagging behind this potential. Particularly interesting is the fact that there is substantial difference among countries with relatively similar economic performances in the development of their transport CO2 emissions over the past thirty years despite the fact that these countries had relatively similar access to efficient technologies and vehicles. This study aims to explore some well-established political science theories on the particular example of climate change mitigation in the transport sector in order to identify some of the factors that could help explain the variations in success of policies and strategies in this sector. The analysis suggests that institutional arrangements that contribute to consensus building in the political process provide a high level of political and policy stability which is vital to long-term changes in energy end-use sectors that rely on long-term investments. However, there is no direct correlation between institutional structures, e.g., corporatism and success in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector. Environmental objectives need to be built into the consensus-based policy structure before actual policy progress can be observed. This usually takes longer in consensus democracies than in politically more agile majoritarian policy environments, but the policy stability that builds on corporatist institutional structures is likely to experience changes over a longer-term, in this case to a shift towards low-carbon transport that endures.
There is a large potential for cost-effective solutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to improve the sustainability of the transport sector that is yet unexploited. Considering the cost-effectiveness and the potential for co-benefits, it is hard to understand why energy gains and mitigation action in the transport sector is still lagging behind the potential. Particularly interesting is the fact that there is substantial difference among countries with relatively similar economic performances, such as the OECD countries in the development of their transport CO2 emission over the past thirty years despite the fact that these countries had relatively similar access to efficient technologies and vehicles. This study aims to apply some well established political science theories on the particular example of climate change mitigation in the transport sector in order to identify some of the factors that could help explain the variations in success of policies and strategies in this sector. The analysis suggests that institutional arrangements that contribute to consensus building in the political process provide a high level of political and policy stability which is vital to long-term changes in energy end-use sectors that rely on long-term investments. However, there is no direct correlation between institutional structures, e.g. corporatism and success in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector. Environmental objectives need to be built into the consensus-based policy structure before actual policy progress can be observed. This usually takes longer in consensus democracies than in politically more agile majoritarian policy environments, but the policy stability that builds on corporatist institutional structures is likely to experience changes over a longer-term, in this case to a shift towards low-carbon transport that endures.
Many low-carbon transport strategies can help achieve other economic, social and environmental objectives. These include improving access to mobility, reducing traffic and parking congestion, saving consumers money, supporting economic development, increasing public health and safety, and reducing air and noise pollution. Based on Avoid-Shift-Improve approaches and case studies from Germany, Colombia, India and Singapore, this paper shows that low-carbon transport generates significant and quantifiable benefits that can create a basis for political and societal coalitions.
Estimates suggest that currently available and cost effective measures can reduce transport Greenhouse Gas emissions by 40-50% compared to 2010. Yet, a number of barriers affect the optimal exploitation of this potential. Considering the possible economic, social and environmental benefits of sustainable transport, the shift towards a low-carbon pathway of this sector can be a win-win situation for climate protection and local development goals. This paper aims to make a contribution to understand these opportunities by highlighting the linkages between objectives, presenting case studies, facts and figures. The paper will also explore assessment methodologies and tools that can help practitioners to assess sustainable development benefits (SDB) and providing evidence for policy-makers to make more informed decisions on transport investments and polices.
Africa and in particular African Least Developed Countries have to a large extent been neglected by the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). This article reviews the mechanism's performance in the region and highlights current developments. The analysis is based on a quantitative breakdown of data provided by the United Nations Environment Programme and Technical University of Denmark (UNEP/DTU) CDM Pipeline and was complemented by interviews with selected investors. The findings indicate that despite the various support measures for underrepresented regions, the overall share of African CDM activities continues to be low. The significant rise in the share of Programmes of Activities of recent years cannot make up for the continuing low numbers of African stand-alone projects. Further, the collapse of the compliance market has proved fatal in terms of timing: ongoing efforts to support the development of a genuine African carbon market were suffocated by the lack of demand for Certified Emission Reductions at a moment when capacity building had started to bear fruit. Consequently, instead of being a mitigation tool with significant scale, the future role of the CDM in Africa might be limited to the voluntary market, while at the same time serving as a tool to foster sustainable development, with mitigation benefits.
Zahlreiche einkommensarme Haushalte in Deutschland und diejenigen, die nahe der Armutsgrenze leben, leiden unter den in den letzten Jahren gestiegenen Stromkosten. In der Folge kann eine zunehmende Anzahl von Stromsperren beobachtet werden. Nach Angaben der Bundesnetzagentur wurden im Jahr 2014 insgesamt knapp 350.000 Unterbrechungen der Stromversorgung aufgrund von Zahlungsrückstände durch die Energieunternehmen veranlasst. Um solche Stromsperren zu vermeiden, bieten immer mehr Versorgungsunternehmen ihren Kunden einen Prepaidzähler als Antwort auf ausstehende Zahlungen und eine wachsende Zahl von Haushalten mit Energieschulden an. Das Phänomen der Energiearmut in Deutschland ist relativ jung und damit die Anzahl der Prepaidzähler noch niedrig. Erfahrungen in diesem Zusammenhang sind daher im Vergleich zu anderen Ländern (z. B. Großbritannien) rar. Im Auftrag des Ministeriums für Umwelt, Landwirtschaft, Natur- und Verbraucherschutz des Landes Nordrhein-Westfalen hat das Wuppertal Institut die erste wissenschaftlichen Befragung von Haushalten mit Prepaidzählern in Deutschland durchgeführt und stellt die Ergebnisse in diesem Wuppertal Report vor.
Wirtschaftsförderung 4.0
(2017)
Alle sind für den Klimaschutz. Aber niemand will sich einschränken. Ökoroutine möchte durch Standards und Limits die Strukturen ändern. Schluss mit moralischen Appellen! Strategischer Konsum ist ein Mythos. Es ist einfacher die Bedingungen im Stall zu verbessern als das Konsumverhalten. Nullemissionsautos können bis 2030 der Standard für Neuzulassungen werden. So wird Öko zur Routine. Viele Beispiele zeigen: Das Konzept funktioniert bereits in der Praxis.
Vielfältige Einflüsse wirken auf die Energie- und Wasserversorgung ein, auch aus Faktoren resultierend, die nicht mit dem Klimawandel zusammenhängen. Es besteht damit zum einen die Herausforderung, die Folgen des Klimawandels unter den allgemeinen Bedingungen gesellschaftlicher Transformation modellhaft zu erfassen. Die Produktions- und Versorgungssysteme in Deutschland müssen sich langfristig an die Folgen des Klimawandels anpassen. Das Kapitel thematisiert deshalb zum anderen die Verletzlichkeit von Energiesystem und Wasserinfrastruktur und stellt dar, wie sie in unterschiedlichen Szenarien berechnet werden kann. Die Ergebnisse dieser unterschiedlichen Szenariorechenläufe setzen einen Rahmen, der die vielfältigen Anpassungserfordernisse aufzeigt. Wenn die Versorgung in Zukunft sicher und effizient sein soll, sind darüber hinaus auch die anderen, nichtklimatischen Einflussfaktoren zu berücksichtigen.
The maritime part of all transport via the port of Rotterdam is linked to the brunt of all CO2 emissions (87 %) the port can potentially influence. This report aims to quantitatively grasp the maritime transport of the Port of Rotterdam, in terms of ships, total tonnages, energy consumption and CO2 emissions in respect to types of cargo and regions.
In the first and broad part of the report, the emissions and energy demands of sailing ships are assessed. Emissions and energy demand for the port itself are subject of a separate part at the end.
In October 2014, the European Council agreed on a target of improving overall energy efficiency by at least 27 per cent by 2030. According to the European Council's conclusions, this target should not be translated into nationally binding targets. Nevertheless individual Member States are free to set higher national objectives if desired. However, it is difficult to assess the degree of ambition of a national target because so far not much light has been shed upon the exact size of the untapped efficiency potentials.
This paper provides an in-depth analysis and comparison of existing studies on energy efficiency potentials in the European Union's (EU) Member States by 2030. It includes a structured overview of the results, information on the quality of the available data and suggestions for improvement.
The review shows that comprehensive studies on national energy efficiency potentials are rare and hardly comparable. The existing studies agree on the existence of significant potentials for energy efficiency. Their outcomes, however, vary significantly in terms of national levels. Assuming low policy intensity, energy savings between 10 and 28 per cent could be realised by 2030 compared to a baseline development, in the case of high policy intensity 7-44 per cent. Technical energy efficiency potentials in the different EU Member States are estimated at 14-52 per cent. On average, energy savings of 27 per cent by 2030 appear to be feasible with significant policy effort. We conclude that the deviation in Member States' energy efficiency potentials resulting from different studies represents an indication of the so far poor quality of underlying data. In order to allow for a concretisation of efficiency potential estimates, the comparability and detail of information sources should be improved.
Simulation modeling is useful to understand the mechanisms of the diffusion of innovations, which can be used for forecasting the future of innovations. This study aims to make the identification of such mechanisms less costly in time and labor. We present an approach that automates the generation of diffusion models by: (1) preprocessing of empirical data on the diffusion of a specific innovation, taken out by the user; (2) testing variations of agent-based models for their capability of explaining the data; (3) assessing interventions for their potential to influence the spreading of the innovation. We present a working software implementation of this procedure and apply it to the diffusion of water-saving showerheads. The presented procedure successfully generated simulation models that explained diffusion data. This progresses agent-based modeling methodologically by enabling detailed modeling at relative simplicity for users. This widens the circle of persons that can use simulation to shape innovation.
Feedback devices can be used to inform households about their energy-consumption behavior. This may persuade them to practice energy conservation. The use of feedback devices can also - via word of mouth - spread among households and thereby support the spread of the incentivized behavior, e.g. energy-efficient heating behavior. This study investigates how to manage the impact of these environmental innovations via marketing. Marketing activities can support the diffusion of devices. This study aims to identify the most effective strategies of marketing feedback devices. We did this by adapting an agent-based model to simulate the roll-out of a novel feedback technology and heating behavior within households in a virtual city. The most promising marketing strategies were simulated and their impacts were analyzed. We found it particularly effective to lend out feedback devices to consumers, followed by leveraging the social influence of well-connected individuals, and giving away the first few feedback devices for free. Making households aware of the possibility of purchasing feedback devices was found to be least effective. However, making households aware proved to be most cost-efficient. This study shows that actively managing the roll-out of feedback devices can increase their impacts on energy-conservation both effectively and cost-efficiently.
Mit dem Klimaschutz-Teilkonzept Mobilität für die Stadt Wolfsburg wurde eine neue Methode erprobt, mit der sich klimaschutzrelevante Handlungspotenziale an der Schnittstelle von Stadt- und Verkehrsplanung identifizieren lassen. Die Methode erlaubt es, bei der Abschätzung von Potenzialen zur Minderung verkehrsbedingter CO2-Emissionen stadträumliche Gegebenheiten zu erfassen und eine räumliche Differenzierung vorzunehmen. Sie stellt neben den für die Stadt- und Verkehrsplanung schon bestehenden Ansätzen die Analyse von variierenden CO2-Minderungspotenzialen innerhalb der Teilräume einer Stadt in den Vordergrund und ist eine sinnvolle Ergänzung zu den im verkehrsplanerischen Kontext oft angewandten Verkehrssimulationen.
The future of automobility
(2017)
Für die Energiewende in Deutschland ist zeitnah ein nennenswerter Ausbau der Stromnetze auf Transport- und Verteilnetzebene erforderlich. Mittel- bis langfristig werden für die Umstellung der Strom- und Energieversorgung auf erneuerbaren Energien (EE) zusätzlich große Speicherkapazitäten benötigt. Dabei sind kostengünstige und mit minimalen Energieverlusten verbundene Speicher- und Erzeugungstechnologien anzustreben. Lösungsansätze dafür werden bisher überwiegend auf der Stromseite diskutiert. Chancen, die sich aus der Kopplung von Strom- und Gasnetzen ergeben, werden kaum wahrgenommen. Das erhebliche Lösungspotential der vorhandenen Gasinfrastruktur und -Anwendungstechnologien mittels Power-to-Gas sowie die damit verbundenen Auswirkungen auf eine nachhaltige Gestaltung der Energiewende finden zu wenig Beachtung.
Vor diesem Hintergrund hatte das Forschungsvorhaben "Integration fluktuierender erneuerbarer Energien durch konvergente Nutzung von Strom und Gasnetzen - Konvergenz Strom- und Gasnetze" zum Ziel, unter Berücksichtigung der Kopplung von Strom- und Gasnetzen, (1) die Potenziale zur Aufnahme, Speicherung und Verteilung von EE zu bestimmen, (2) die dynamischen Energieströme aus Angebot und Nachfrage in der gesamten Energieversorgungsstruktur zu modellieren, (3) die Kopplung volkswirtschaftlich zu analysieren und (4) Handlungsempfehlungen für den Ausbau der Netzinfrastrukturen und die Entwicklung eines zukünftigen Energiemarktes abzuleiten.
Optimization and simulation models are fit to work on a multitude of technical, economic, and techno-economic questions. However, they are by now not able to satisfactorily include societal aspects like acceptance, spatial implications and legal frameworks. In order to advance scope and explanatory power of simulation models, collaboration in interdisciplinary research teams is needed. Yet the exchange in such teams and its coordination can prove challenging. Furthermore, disciplinary approaches and methods for simulation and optimization might not be familiar to all participants.
To this end, a new conceptual model is introduced. The conceptual model employs few basic elements and concepts for describing and explaining arbitrary societal and technical relationships. Most notably, the conceptual model is general in its design, so contributions to the problem formulation and design components can be made by all team members regardless of their discipline. The procedure is based on common agent-based concepts without using their terminology. Consequently, an exchange among all team members becomes possible without them necessarily being proficient in agent-based modeling. A reduced presentation of workshop results exemplifies the use of novel elements for deriving an emergent agent-based simulation.
Out of the comfort zone! : Governing the exnovation of unsustainable technologies and practices
(2017)
Innovations are important for sustainability transformations, yet often prove insufficient for replacing established unsustainable structures. The promotion of renewable energy, for example, has been insufficient for pushing coal out of the energy market. The prevalent "innovation bias" should be overcome by complementing innovation politics and research with a stronger occupation with the purposive termination of unsustainable technologies, products and practices. This article therefore introduces the concept of "exnovation" and discusses the need of, as well as different approaches for, the governance of exnovation processes.
What can reasonably be expected from the UNFCCC process and the climate conference in Paris 2015? To achieve transformative change, prevailing unsustainable routines embedded in socio-economic systems have to be translated into new and sustainable ones. This article conceptualizes the UNFCCC and the associated policy processes as a catalyst for this translation by applying a structurational regime model. This model provides an analytical distinction of rules (norms and shared meaning) and resources (economic resources as well as authoritative and allocative power) and allows us to conceptualize agency on various levels, including beyond nation states. The analysis concludes that the UNFCCC's narrow focus on emission targets, which essentially is a focus on resources, has proven ineffective. In addition, the static division of industrialized and developing countries in the Convention's annexes and the consensus-based decision-making rules have impeded ambitious climate protection. The article concludes that the UNFCCC is much better equipped to provide rules for climate protection activities and should consciously expand this feature to improve its impact.
In the Paris Agreement, the governments of the world have pledged to attain climate neutrality in the second half of this century. More precisely, in Art. 4.1 parties agreed to "achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases". However, the collective as well as the majority of measures by individual countries fall short of embarking on a pathway towards that objective. But nevertheless, an increasing number of actors - countries, sub-national entities, as well as corporations - have stepped up their efforts and set themselves carbon neutrality goals.
In this Policy Brief Lukas Hermwille and Markus Gornik portray the commitments of Costa Rica, Norway, Sweden, the City of Melbourne, Australia and the corporation Microsoft. All cases have set themselves ambitious neutrality goals and have implemented measures to achieve them. However, none of the cases will be able to achieve accomplish neutrality on their own, at least not on short-term. The remaining emissions will be compensated using carbon credits either from domestic offset schemes (Costa Rica) or from international schemes.
For the time being, voluntary carbon neutrality goals, as presented in this Policy Brief, are an effective way to demonstrate leadership in climate protection. For the near future, pioneering actors that set voluntary carbon or climate neutrality goals could provide a significant source of demand for international carbon credits.
Quo vadis voluntary markets? : new Paris Agreement architecture puts business model to the test
(2017)
Wie viel Gestaltungsmacht haben das Pariser Klimaabkommen und die in der Agenda 2030 für nachhaltige Entwicklung formulierten Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) als internationaler Bezugsrahmen für die globale Energietransformation? In der vorliegeneden Studie analysiert Lukas Hermwille die beiden Agenden und stellt deren Komplementaritäten heraus.
Die Studie kommt zu dem Ergebnis, dass ein Fokus allein auf innovative Ansätze und den Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien nicht ausreicht. Nimmt man die Ambition des Zwei-Grad-Limits oder gar des 1,5-Grad-Ziels ernst, reicht es nicht aus, darauf zu warten, bis Kohle, Öl und Gas von alleine obsolet werden, sondern es wird nötig werden, den Ausstieg aus fossilen Energieträgern aktiv politisch zu gestalten. In diesem Sinne empfiehlt die Studie mit Hilfe von "Exnovationsstrategien" auch die potenziellen Verlierer der Energietransformation in den Blick zu nehmen, so Widerstände abzubauen, um den Ausstieg aus der Nutzung fossiler Energieträger rechtzeitig und gleichzeitig sozial gerecht zu erreichen.
The objective of this paper is to recognize and categorize the various ways that ecosystem services researchers perceive the concept and purpose of ecosystem services (ES). To do so, we employed the discourse analysis approach of Q methodology, where 33 researchers ranked 39 statements on ES derived from the literature. Factor analysis of the Q sorts allowed for the interpretation of five main perspectives on ES: a pragmatic view on nature conservation, seeing ES as useful tool ("Non-Economic Utilitarian"), a strongly value-focused perspective with a skeptical view on ES ("Critical Idealist"), an opposition to a utilitarian approach to nature conservation but seeing ES as more encompassing approach ("Anti-Utilitarian"), a focus on a methodological rather than a critical approach to ES ("Methodologist"), and a rather economic approach to environmental decision-making, in which ES is a useful tool ("Moderate Economist"). We see this plurality as illustrating both the potential of the ES concept to serve as a boundary object for collaboration, but also the threat of ineffective collaboration due to the lack of a common conceptual ground. However, as pluralism can be fruitful if handled transparently, we suggest the need for open dialogue about underlying assumptions when using a value-laden concept like ES.
Der vorliegende Beitrag beschäftigt sich mit der Rolle dezentraler Akteure bei der Transformation des deutschen Energiesystems. Er betrachtet die Energiewende als ein gesellschaftspolitisches, technisches, soziales und ökologisches Leitprojekt für eine "Große Transformation". Die sozio-technische Hypothese dabei ist, dass (weltweit?) ein Trend zur "Re-Vergesellschaftung" der Energieerzeugung und nutzung auf modernstem technischen Niveau stattfindet in Verbindung mit einer regionalen und überregionalen Netzstruktur und (teilweise) auch großtechnischer erneuerbarer Stromerzeugung (z. B. Windkraftparks). Um den notwendigen massiven Ausbau erneuerbarer Stromerzeugung für die Dekarbonisierung von Gebäuden und Verkehr so gering wie möglich zu halten (Akzeptanz, Kosten), werden Energie/Stromeffizienz und die Begrenzung von Rebound Effekten (z. B. Lebensstiländerungen; nachhaltigere Produktions- und Konsummuster) zum Imperativ.
Technologiebericht 1.5 Solarthermische Kraftwerke innerhalb des Forschungsprojekts TF_Energiewende
(2017)
A fundamental change in societal values and economic structures is required to address increasing pressures on ecosystems and natural resources. Transition research has developed in the last decades to analyze the co-dynamics of technological, institutional, social and economic elements in the provision of key functions such as energy, water and food supply. This doctoral dissertation provides conceptual and methodological contributions to the pro-active governance of sustainability transitions. Three research gaps are identified that are addressed in this dissertation. First, a comprehensive conceptualization of learning in sustainability transitions is currently missing that comprises learning at multiple societal levels (ranging from individuals to policy-actors). Learning concepts are often not explicitly discussed in transition research even though learning is considered as fundamental for innovation processes, niche formation and development as well as breakthrough and diffusion of innovations. Second, methods for the analysis and design of transition governance processes are lacking that specify case-specific intervention points and roles of actors in the implementation of innovations. Third, participatory modeling approaches are only applied to a limited extent in transition research despite a high potential for supporting communication and learning. The conceptualization of multi-level learning developed in this doctoral research conceptualizes learning at different societal levels as specific learning contexts ranging from individual and group contexts to organizational and policy contexts. The conceptual framework further differentiates between learning processes, intensity, objects, outcomes, subjects and factors, allowing for a more detailed analysis of learning within and across learning contexts. Thus, learning contexts can be linked by processes that involve actors from different learning contexts (e.g., community groups and policy-makers), as well as exchanges of physical aspects, institutions and knowledge (in the form of "learning factors"). This research has also provided a classification of model uses in transition research that supports a purposeful discussion of the opportunities of modeling and promising future research directions. The methodology developed in this doctoral research aims at the analysis and design of transition governance processes by specifying the various opportunities to contribute to sustainability transitions through purposeful action at different societal levels, as well as related roles of stakeholders in implementing such processes of change. The methodology combines different streams of previous research: 1) a participatory modeling approach to identify problem perceptions, case-specific sustainability innovations as well as related implementation barriers, drivers and responsibilities; 2) a systematic review to identify supportive and impeding learning factors from the general literature that can complement case-specific factors; and 3) a method for the analysis and design of case-specific transition governance processes. Three case studies in Canada (topic: sustainable food systems), Cyprus (water-energy-food nexus) and Germany (sustainable heating supply) have been selected to test and iteratively develop the methodology described above. The results for each case study reveal that there are learning objects (i.e., learning requirements) in all learning contexts, which underscores the importance of multi-level learning in sustainability transitions, ranging from the individual to the group, organizational and policy levels. Actors have various opportunities to actively facilitate societal transformations towards sustainable development either directly through actions at their particular societal levels (i.e., context-internal learning) or indirectly through actions that influence learning at other societal levels. In fact, most of the learning factors require cooperation across learning contexts during the implementation process. The comparing of learning factors across case studies underline the importance of several factor categories, such as "physical a disturbance or crisis", "information and knowledge". Of the 206 factors identified by stakeholders, 40 factors are case-specific and not contained in the general, review-based factor list. This underscores the value of participatory research, as general, top-down analyses might have overlooked these case-specific factors. The methodology presented in this dissertation allows for the identification and analysis of case-specific intervention points for sustainability transitions at multiple societal levels. The methodology furthermore permits the analysis of interplay between individual, group, organizational and policy actions, which is a first step towards their coordination. The focus on sustainability innovations links the broad topic of sustainability transitions to a set of opportunities for practical interventions and overcoming their implementation barriers. The methodology presented allows for the analysis and design of these interlinkages between learning contexts. While the methodology cannot provide any "silver bullets" for inducing sustainability transitions, it is flexible enough to identify an appropriate abstraction level for analyzing and designing transition governance processes. The methodology developed in this doctoral research also provides several contributions for the development of participatory modeling methods in transition research. Thus, the participatory method supports an integrated analysis of barriers and drivers of sustainability innovations, and allows application in practice and education. The concepts and methods developed in this research project allow for reflection on transition governance processes from a systemic viewpoint. Experiences in the case studies underline the applicability of the concepts and methods developed for the analysis of case-specific transition governance processes. Despite substantial differences in the geographic location, culture and topics addressed, all case studies include promising sustainability innovations and the engagement of multiple actors in their implementation. The diversity and multitude of initiatives in the case study regions provides an optimistic outlook on future opportunities for large-scale sustainability transitions.