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Staatliche Regulierung ist verpönt. Häufig läuft es dann auf den Appell hinaus: Jeder einzelne Bürger habe es selbst in der Hand. Doch die Alltagsroutinen sind in der Regel mächtiger als das Umweltbewusstsein. Beim Marmor für das Badezimmer spielen Amortisationszeiten keine Rolle. Die solare Warmwasseranlage ist dagegen oftmals "zu teuer". Gesetzliche Standards hingegen verselbstständigen Energieeffizienz und den Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien. Sie machen "Öko zur Routine". Dieser Artikel beschreibt die Notwendigkeit für das Schaffen neuer Routinen und zeigt wie dies durch Standards, Limits und faire Umsetzungsbedingungen sowie attraktive Alternativangebote zum gegenwärtigen, häufig nicht nachhaltigen Verhalten auch möglich ist.
Zwischen Anpassungs- und Veränderungsdruck : Klimafolgenanpassung und nachhaltige Transformation
(2015)
Strategien der Klimafolgenanpassung und der nachhaltigen Entwicklung werden in Deutschland kaum aufeinander bezogen. Kurzfristige Maßnahmenplanungen zur Schadensbegrenzung dominieren das politische Handeln, Fragen nach Vorsorge- und Gerechtigkeitsaspekten kommen zu kurz. Die Entwicklung resilienter Entwicklungspfade stellt eine Herausforderung für die real existierende Problembewältigung dar. Für die Umsetzung einer nachhaltigen und resilienten Klimaanpassungsstrategie ist ein Mix aus institutionell basierten Regeln und teilhabeorientierten Realexperimenten zur Erprobung von Neuem naheliegend.
Urbanization and climate change are amongst the greatest challenges of the 21st century. In the "Low Carbon Future Cities" project (LCFC), three important problem dimensions are analysed: current and future GHG emissions and their mitigation (up to 2050); resource use and material flows; and vulnerability to climate change.
The industrial city of Wuxi has been the Chinese pilot city of the project. To establish the pathway for a low carbon future, it is crucial to understand the current situation and possible future developments. The paper presents the key results of the status quo analysis and the future scenario analysis carried out for Wuxi. Two scenarios are outlined. The Current Policy Scenario (CPS) shows the current most likely development in the area of energy demand and GHG emissions until 2050. Whereas the extra low carbon scenario (ELCS) assumes a significantly more ambitious implementation, it combines a market introduction of best available technologies with substantial behavioural change. All scenarios are composed of sub-scenarios for the selected key sectors.
Looking at the per capita emissions in Wuxi, the current levels are already high at around 12 tonnes CO2 per capita compared to Western European cities. Although Wuxi has developed a low carbon plan, the projected results under current policies (CPS) show that the total emissions would increase to 23.6 tonnes CO2 per capita by 2050. If the ELCS pathway was to be adopted, these CO2 emission levels could be reduced to 6.4 tonnes per capita by 2050.
Die Entscheidung für ein von volatilen Erzeugungsquellen dominiertes Stromsystem stellt an die Stabilisierung des Systems neue Anforderungen. Zugleich bieten sich neue Optionen. Die bisherige Asymmetrie, nach der für die Stabilisierung die Kraftwerksseite verantwortlich sei, ist überkommene Praxis, deswegen auch heute habituell naheliegend, aber vermutlich nicht länger effizient. Die im Titel genannten nachfrageseitigen Ausgleichsoptionen (SE & DSM) bieten sich an. Im Beitrag wird deren Potential abgeschätzt. In vier Gestaltungsfeldern wird zudem gefragt, ob die bislang von der Politik gegebenen rechtlichen Mandate konsequent SE & DSM als Option berücksichtigen. Das Ergebnis ist viermal (weitgehende) Fehlanzeige.
Article 6 of the Paris Agreement establishes three approaches for countries to cooperate with each other in implementing their climate protection contributions. However, Article 6 sketches out only some basic contours; the details are to be filled in by further negotiations. This article surveys the views countries have submitted so far in order to identify the main issues at stake, points of controvery and convergence and possible ways forward. The submissions reveal some sharp differences in opinions on key issues such as the scope of the new mechanisms, how to operationalise the Article 6 requirement to increase ambition, whether to have international provisions on the promotion of sustainable development, and how to protect environmental integrity in the use of Article 6. The article concludes with a number of recommendations on how to address these controversies.
The 2015 Paris Agreement relies on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to outline each country's policies and plans for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To strengthen global climate action and achieve the Agreement's temperature goal, it is crucial to enhance the ambition level of NDCs every 5 years. While previous studies have explored the ambition of initial NDCs, limited research has delved into the factors driving the enhancement or lack thereof in NDCs' emission reduction plans. This study employs a mixed-method design to investigate the determinants of NDC enhancement. First, we analyse the updated or revised NDCs of 111 countries using quantitative methods. Second, we conduct qualitative case studies focusing on Brazil and South Africa. Our findings reveal that countries that engaged in stakeholder consultations with civil society, business, and labour groups prior to developing their updated or revised NDCs were more likely to enhance their greenhouse gas reduction targets. These results are further supported by the case studies. South Africa conducted comprehensive consultations and submitted an enhanced GHG target, while Brazil, which did not arrange open consultations, did not improve its target. This study underscores the significance of comprehensive and transparent stakeholder engagement processes, highlighting their potential to drive enhanced NDCs. By involving diverse stakeholders, including civil society, business, and labour groups, countries can foster greater ambition and effectiveness in their climate action, ultimately contributing to the global effort to combat climate change.
Wasting food, wasting resources : potential environmental savings through food waste reductions
(2018)
Food is needed to maintain our physical integrity and therefore meets a most basic human need. The food sector got in the focus of environmental policy, because of its environmental implications and its inefficiency in terms of the amount of food lost along the value chain. The European Commission (EC) flagged the food waste issue a few years ago and adopted since then a series of policies that partially address the problem. Among these, the Resource Efficiency Roadmap set the aspirational goal of reducing the resource inputs in the food chain by 20% and halving the disposal of edible food waste by 2020. Focusing on consumer food waste, we tested what a reduction following the Roadmap's food waste target would imply for four environmental categories in EU28 (European Union 28 Member States): greenhouse gas emissions, land use, blue water consumption, and material use. Compared to the 2011 levels, reaching the target would lead to 2% to 7% reductions of the total footprint depending on the environmental category. This equals a 10% to 11% decrease in inputs in the food value chain (i.e., around half of the resource use reductions targeted). The vast majority of potential gains are related to households, rather than the food-related services. Most likely, the 2020 target will not be met, since there is insufficient action both at Member State and European levels. The Sustainable Development Goals provide a new milestone for reducing edible food waste, but Europe needs to rise up to the challenge of decreasing its per capita food waste generation by 50% by 2030.
Emissions Trading Systems and Carbon Pricing schemes are spreading worldwide. This article looks at Carbon Pricing from the international perspective of the UN climate regime and describes what the Paris Agreement adopted in December 2015 means for international Carbon trading. In order to illustrate this, the authors first look back onto the provisions of the Kyoto Protocol and review its flexible mechanisms, namely International Emissions Trading, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI). In a second step, the changes that the Paris Agreement (PA) brings about for the Carbon Markets are described. Art. 6 of the PA is analyzed, stressing that Art. 6 introduces a new element into emissions trading: all activities carried out under Art. 6 must lead to a net mitigation effect with respect to GHG reduction, thus abandoning the principle of "offsetting" that was at the heart of the project-based mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol. The different Carbon trading options foreseen by Art. 6 are examined. Finally, the authors discuss ways forward and argue for early piloting schemes for the new "Paris mechanisms".
Die Suche nach einem Ausweg aus den festgefahrenen Klima- verhandlungen ist derzeit eine der wichtigsten Aufgaben der internationalen Politik. Franz Josef Radermacher (2013) versucht, so einen Weg aus dem Politikstau aufzuzeigen: In verstärktem Ausmaß sollten Privatakteure eingebunden werden und Klimaschutzmaßnahmen finanzieren, weil die internationale Staatengemeinschaft bisher daran gescheitert sei, ein Folgeabkommen für das Kyoto-Protokoll abzuschließen. Von der Staatengemeinschaft verlangt Radermacher nur noch, überhaupt irgendein Abkommen zuwege zu bringen, das die globalen Emissionen zumindest einigermaßen deckelt. Weitere Emissionsreduktionen, die "Verhandlungslücke", sollen Unternehmen und Privatpersonen übernehmen, indem sie freiwillig Emissionszertifikate im Umfang von mehreren hundert Milliarden Tonnen CO2 kaufen und stilllegen. Darüber hinaus sollen weitere 150 Milliarden Tonnen CO2 über Aufforstungsprojekte aus der Atmosphäre herausgeholt werden (Sequestrierung).
Vision development towards a sustainable North Rhine-Westphalia 2030 in a science-practice-dialogue
(2017)
The paper presents the results of a participatory vision development process in the Federal State of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) in Germany. The vision development was part of a scientific research project that accompanied the development of a sustainability strategy for NRW at state level. The Sustainability Strategy NRW was adopted in July 2016 and contains parts of the vision developed in the research project: Sentences from the narrative text vision and proposed targets and indicators that back-up the vision for a sustainable NRW in 2030 were used by the state of NRW. The vision was developed in iterative steps in three consecutive dialogue rounds with different stakeholders from science and practice. The paper presents the methodological approach and the results of the vision formulation process. The paper discusses the lessons learned from the vision development - from both practical and theoretical perspectives of transition management. The paper explores the relevance of setting ambitious targets for sustainable development as part of a state strategy by taking the proposed target of a "4 × 25% modal split" by 2030 as an example. The project demonstrated that a participatory approach for vision development is time and resource consuming, but worth the effort as it improves the quality and acceptance of a vision. Furthermore, the project demonstrated that transformative science contributes valuable inputs for sustainability transitions and for facilitating participatory vision development.
Wie weit können ambitionierte und flächenhafte Maßnahmen zur Verkehrsverlagerung im Personenverkehr im Ruhrgebiet dazu beitragen, die Ziele von Energiewende und Klimaschutz in der Region bis 2050 zu erreichen? Diese Frage wurde mit dem "Modell Ruhrgebiet" mittels systematischer Forecasting-Szenarien untersucht. Mit den Simulationsrechnungen können die Potenziale von integrierten Maßnahmen der Siedlungsentwicklung und Verkehrsplanung zur Verkehrsverlagerung vom motorisierten Individualverkehr zum Umweltverbund identifiziert werden. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass durch eine kombinierte Push- und Pullstrategie für den Modal Shift beachtliche Potenziale zur Verkehrsverlagerung und damit zur Verringerung der Kohlendioxidemissionen erschlossen werden können. Besonders wirksam sind restriktive Maßnahmen gegen den MIV. Die Ergebnisse verdeutlichen eine unbequeme Wahrheit: Es ginge, wenn man wollte.
Die Autoren fassen die Entwicklung Urbaner Produktion und der damit verbundenen ökologischen Beeinträchtigungen zusammen. Vor dem Hintergrund einschlägiger Forschung werden Methoden der Quantifizierung ökologischer Wirkungen Urbaner Produktion mit ihren globalisierten Lieferketten dargestellt. Der Artikel schließt mit einer Darstellung möglicher Perspektiven faktenbasierter, partizipativer Planung Urbaner Produktion.
Energy service companies (ESCOs) play crucial role in building energy efficiency retrofit sector. However limited access to green financing has prevented ESCOs in their expansions in China. This paper, based on a survey of 469 samples and on-site visiting to and interviewing relevant 50 actors of ESCOs, financial institutions and local housing authorities, identifies main barriers of accessing to green financing at both systemic policy level and operational meso and micro level in China, and analyzes good practices at local level that overcome the barriers. The paper concludes that, although there are barriers existing at the policy level in China, substantial attentions and priorities should be given to take actions for overcoming the barriers existed at the operational meso and micro level. The paper suggests that the good practices of capacity building for ESCOs and local financial sector, intensifying participation of intermediate organizations or facilitators and diversifying financial sources and funding mechanisms and models that emerge from the local level should be disseminated in China.
What can reasonably be expected from the UNFCCC process and the climate conference in Paris 2015? To achieve transformative change, prevailing unsustainable routines embedded in socio-economic systems have to be translated into new and sustainable ones. This article conceptualizes the UNFCCC and the associated policy processes as a catalyst for this translation by applying a structurational regime model. This model provides an analytical distinction of rules (norms and shared meaning) and resources (economic resources as well as authoritative and allocative power) and allows us to conceptualize agency on various levels, including beyond nation states. The analysis concludes that the UNFCCC's narrow focus on emission targets, which essentially is a focus on resources, has proven ineffective. In addition, the static division of industrialized and developing countries in the Convention's annexes and the consensus-based decision-making rules have impeded ambitious climate protection. The article concludes that the UNFCCC is much better equipped to provide rules for climate protection activities and should consciously expand this feature to improve its impact.
The sensitivity of climate phenomena in the low latitudes to enhanced greenhouse conditions is a scientific issue of high relevance to billions of people in the poorest countries of the globe. So far, most studies dealt with individual model results. In the present analysis, we refer to 79 coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations from 12 different climate models under 6 different IPCC scenarios. The basic question is as to what extent various state-of-the-art climate models agree in predicting changes in the main features of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the monsoon climates in South Asia and West Africa. The individual model runs are compared with observational data in order to judge whether the spatio-temporal characteristics of ENSO are well reproduced. The model experiments can be grouped into multi-model ensembles. Thus, climate change signals in the classical index time series, in the principal components and in the time series of interannual variability can be evaluated against the background of internal variability and model uncertainty.
There are large differences between the individual model predictions until the end of the 21st century, especially in terms of monsoon rainfall and the Southern Oscillation index (SOI). The majority of the models tends to project La Niña-like anomalies in the SOI and an intensification of the summer monsoon precipitation in India and West Africa. However, the response barely exceeds the level of natural variability and the systematic intermodel variations are larger than the impact of different IPCC scenarios. Nonetheless, there is one prominent climate change signal, which stands out from model variations and internal noise: All forced model experiments agree in predicting a substantial warming in the eastern tropical Pacific. This oceanic heating does not necessarily lead to a modification of ENSO towards more frequent El Niño and/or La Niña events. It simply represents a change in the background state of ENSO. Indeed, we did not find convincing multi-model evidence for a modification of the wavelet spectra in terms of ENSO or the monsoons. Some models suggest an intensification of the annual cycle but this signal is fairly model-dependent. Thus, large model uncertainty still exists with respect to the future behaviour of climate in the low latitudes. This has to be taken into account when addressing climate change signals in individual model experiments and ensembles.
Two for one : integrating the sustainable development agenda with international climate policy
(2017)
2015 was a watershed for international sustainability governance. With the Paris climate agreement and Agenda 2030, the international community adopted new targets and processes which are to guide policy for decades to come. Both emphasise the need for integration. In practice, however, climate change and sustainable development have so far been siloed issues.
The Glasgow climate conference marked a symbolic juncture, lying half-way between the adoption of the UNFCCC in 1992 and the year 2050 in which according to the IPCC special report on the 1.5°C limit net zero CO2 emissions need to be reached, globally, in order to maintain a good chance of achieving the 1.5°C limit. This article undertakes an assessment of what the UNFCCC and in particular the Paris Agreement and its implementation process have actually achieved so far up to and including the results of the Glasgow conference. The article discusses efforts at ambition raising both within and outside the formal diplomatic process, the finalization of the implementation rules of the Paris Agreement, as well as progress on gender responsiveness, climate finance, adaptation and loss and damage. In summary, the Paris Agreement and its implementation can be considered a success as it is having a discernible impact on the behavior of parties as well as on non-party actors. However, significant further efforts will be required to actually achieve the objectives of the Agreement.
Mit Inkrafttreten des Kyoto-Protokolls am 16.2.2005 gelten für Deutschland und die meisten anderen Industrieländer völkerrechtlich bindende Minderungsziele für die 6 im Kyoto-Protokoll erfassten Treibhausgase. Damit erlangt eine durchaus kontrovers diskutierte Klimaschutzstrategie, die auf eine stärkere Umstellung der Energienutzung von Öl und Kohle auf mehr Erdgas setzt, zusätzlich an Bedeutung. Der nachfolgende Beitrag setzt sich mit der Klimabilanz des Erdgases unter Berücksichtigung der gesamten Prozesskette auseinander. Insbesondere werden neue Messergebnisse aus Russland dargestellt (Wuppertal Institut 2004), die zeigen, dass die dem Export von russischem Erdgas nach Deutschland zuzuordnenden indirekten Emissionen nur etwa ein Viertel der bei der Erdgasverbrennung entstehenden direkten Emissionen betragen. Damit bleibt Erdgas auch unter Berücksichtigung der indirekten Emissionen in Russland der fossile Energieträger mit den mit Abstand geringsten Treibhausgasemissionen.
Decarbonizing transportation in emerging economies will be one of the key challenges in global climate change mitigation efforts. In this paper, pathways are developed towards achieving a 1.5° degree scenario for land-transport for four emerging economies (Brazil, India, Kenya and Vietnam). The aim is to highlight the key opportunities and challenges for low-carbon transport in countries with rapidly growing mobility demand. The main focus of this paper is to reconcile actual and required emission reduction targets and develop plausible pathways to achieve these targets. The paper also identifies potential strategies and measures for these countries to follow these pathways. The analysis considers the contributions of "avoid" (cutting travel growth), "shift" (to lower CO2 modes) and "improve" (vehicle and fuel CO2 characteristics) interventions to decarbonisation scenarios. These scenarios aim to inform renewed Nationally Determined Contributions and shed light on the feasibility of deep decarbonisation pathways that would be in line with the Paris Agreement. Results from this study show that achieving 1.5DS would require dramatic changes in travel patterns, technology and fuels, and major intensification of current policy approaches. Decarbonization solutions will need to include greater use and investment of efficient modes, major shifts toward near-zero carbon fuels such as clean electricity, systems integration, modal shift and urban planning solutions. Although the socio-economic situations and national transport systems differ between the selected countries, some fairly similar strategies appear likely to be core to the mitigation effort, such as rapid growth in light- and heavy-duty vehicle electrification and investments in public transit systems.
The transport sector is the second largest and one of the fastest growing energy end-use sectors, representing 24% of global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. The International Energy Agency has developed scenarios for the transport sector within the overall concept of mitigation pathways that would be required to limit global warming to 2 °C. This paper builds on these scenarios and illustrates various passenger travel-related strategies for achieving a 2° transport scenario, in particular looking at how much technology improvement is needed in the light of different changes in travel and modal shares in OECD and non-OECD countries. It finds that an integrated approach using all feasible policy options is likely to deliver the required emission reductions at least cost, and that stronger travel-related measures result in significantly lower technological requirements.