Based on a comprehensive scenario analysis of the EU's GHG emissions by 2020, we show that the 20% energy savings target set in the Action Plan "Doing more with less" in 2006 is still the most significant and thus indispensable strategy element within an ambitious EU climate and energy strategy targeting at a 30% reduction of GHG emissions by 2020.
The scenario analysis provides a sector by sector projection of potential future energy use and GHG emissions, combined with a detailed policy analysis of the core policies on energy efficiency by the EU and its Member States taken from current research results by the authors and others.
Consequently the paper identifies and quantifies the current implementation deficit in the EU and shows that, despite of sufficient targets, implementation is still significantly lacking in almost all fields of energy efficiency. Some, e.g. transport sector and buildings, are still substantially far from receiving the necessary political impetus. The paper also demonstrates co-benefits of a strong energy efficiency strategy, e.g. the achievability of the targets of the RES directive, which crucially depends on a strong efficiency policy.
We conclude that the efforts of the energy efficiency policy of the EU and its Member States have to be significantly intensfied. As proposed by the EU in case that other developed and key developing countries take up comparable targets in order to fulfil its role in the climate and energy strategy. To achieve this, we offer an analysis of the current weaknesses of EU energy efficiency policy and derive recommendations on how the EU can still reach its targets for 2020.
Iran is one of the largest oil producers and natural gas owners globally. However, it has to struggle with domestic energy shortages, economic losses through energy subsidisation and inefficient energy infrastructures. Furthermore, GHG and other energy related emissions are rapidly increasing and posing a growing threat to local environment as well as global climate. With current trends prevailing, Iran may even become a net energy importer over the next decades. Resource allocation is therefore a crucial challenge for Iran: domestic consumption stands versus exports of energy.
The energy transformation sector clarifies Iran's dilemma: soaring electricity demand leads to blackouts, and power plant new builds are far from using most efficient technologies (e. g. CHP), therefore keeping energy intensive structures. But fossil fuels could be sold on international markets if spared by having more efficient energy infrastructures.
As shown by the high energy intensity of its economy, Iran has large potentials for energy saving and efficiency. In order to highlight and better identify this potential the paper contrasts a high efficiency scenario in all sectors of energy transformation and consumption with a possible "business as usual" development.
Using a bottom-up approach, the analysis provides a sector-by-sector perspective on energy saving potentials. These can be utilised on the demand side especially in the transport sector (fuels) and in households (electricity for appliances, natural gas for heating). Electricity generation bears efficiency potentials as well.
We conclude that Iran, but also the international community, would benefit on various levels from a more energy-efficient Iranian economy: Energy exports could increase, generating more foreign currency and reducing the pressures on international oil and gas prices; energy consumption would decrease, leading to lower needs for nuclear energy and for subsidies to Iranian people, as well as to a reduction of the high external costs entailed by fossil fuels combustion (smog in cities, environmental stress).
Improvements in energy efficiency have numerous impacts additional to energy and greenhouse gas savings. This paper presents key findings and policy recommendations of the COMBI project ("Calculating and Operationalising the Multiple Benefits of Energy Efficiency in Europe").
This project aimed at quantifying the energy and non-energy impacts that a realisation of the EU energy efficiency potential would have in 2030. It covered the most relevant technical energy efficiency improvement actions in buildings, transport and industry.
Quantified impacts include reduced air pollution (and its effects on human health, eco-systems), improved social welfare (health, productivity), saved biotic and abiotic resources, effects on the energy system and energy security, and the economy (employment, GDP, public budgets and energy/EU-ETS prices). The paper shows that a more ambitious energy efficiency policy in Europe would lead to substantial impacts: overall, in 2030 alone, monetized multiple impacts (MI) would amount to 61 bn Euros per year in 2030, i.e. corresponding to approx. 50% of energy cost savings (131 bn Euros).
Consequently, the conservative CBA approach of COMBI yields that including MI quantifications to energy efficiency impact assessments would increase the benefit side by at least 50-70%. As this analysis excludes numerous impacts that could either not be quantified or monetized or where any double-counting potential exists, actual benefits may be much larger.
Based on these findings, the paper formulates several recommendations for EU policy making:
(1) the inclusion of MI into the assessment of policy instruments and scenarios,
(2) the need of reliable MI quantifications for policy design and target setting,
(3) the use of MI for encouraging inter-departmental and cross-sectoral cooperation in policy making to pursue common goals, and
(4) the importance of MI evaluations for their communication and promotion to decision-makers, stakeholders, investors and the general public.
International consensus is growing that a transition towards a low carbon society (LCS) is needed over the next 40 years. The G8, the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate, as well as the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, have concluded that states should prepare their own Low-emission Plans or Low-emission Development Plans and such plans are in development in an increasing number of countries.
An analysis of recent long-term low emission scenarios for Germany shows that all scenarios rely heavily on a massive scale up of energy efficiency improvements based on past trends. However, in spite of the high potential that scenario developers assign to this strategy, huge uncertainty still exists in respect of where the efficiency potentials really lie, how and if they can be achieved and how much their successful implementation depends on more fundamental changes towards a more sustainable society (e.g. behavioural changes).
In order to come to a better understanding of this issue we specifically examine the potential for energy efficiency in relation to particular demand sectors. Our comparative analysis shows that despite general agreement about the high importance of energy efficiency (EE), the perception on where and how to achieve it differ between the analysed scenarios. It also shows that the close nexus between energy efficiency and non-technical behavioural aspects is still little understood. This leads us to the conclusion that in order to support energy policy decisions more research should be done on energy efficiency potential. A better understanding of its potential would help energy efficiency to fulfil its role in the transition towards a LCS.
The potential of natural gas as a bridging technology in low-emission road transportation in Germany
(2011)
The South African government started the development of a basic energy efficiency policy framework in 2005, including a voluntary label for refrigerators. This initial label was the intended precursor to a mandatory standards and labelling (S&L) programme, but the impacts achieved were only very limited. Based on this first experience, the South African Bureau of Standards (SABS) formed in 2008 a working group for the development of the new and more specific South African National Standard SANS 941. This standard identifies energy efficiency requirements, labelling and measurement methods as well as the maximum allowable standby power for a set of appliances as reliable basis for introducing a mandatory regulation. Nevertheless, due to many existing barriers, such as lack of funding and low priority assigned to the initiative, a very long period passed by between the S&L planning and final policy implementation. Finally, in November 2014, the South African government published mandatory performance standards coming into force in 2015/2016 for a first set of appliances consisting of refrigerators, washing machines, dryers, dishwashers, electric water heaters, ovens, A/C and heat pumps. To analyse the effectiveness of the new S&L programme and the potential influence of delays in the implementing process, the authors performed an immediate first-hand evaluation of the new policy.
As analytical reference base for available energy efficiency potentials, results from bottom-up scenario calculations will be presented exemplarily as case study for cold appliances covered by the S&L programme. A retrospective market study will show market trends before policy implementation and compare results with the new mandatory requirements. For the further policy analysis, a programme theory approach will be applied, in order to better understand why, how and under what conditions the policy works. Relationships with other energy efficiency policies and measures as well as positive or negative effects will be described. Furthermore, cause-impact relationships will be analysed to explain the functioning of the policy. Finally, success and failure factors will illustrate what needs to be done to achieve the desired energy efficiency targets. Henceforth, even though this study does not assess the direct transferability of the South African S&L programme to other regions, its findings could be relevant and useful for countries planning the implementation of similar policies.
In addition to the expansion of renewable energies, the efficient use of energy is crucial in order to ensure energy transition successful. The Federal Government of Germany has therefore set itself clear objectives with the National Energy Efficiency Action Plan (NAPE), which aims to reduce the primary energy consumption in Germany - compared to 2008 levels - by 20 per cent until 2020, and by 50 per cent until 2050. In addition, greenhouse gas emissions should fall by 40 per cent compared to 1990.
To reach this goal, the German Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi) inter alia launched the "National Top Runner Initiative (NTRI)" in January 2016. It is an important component and concerns private homes, as well as industry, retail and services.
The NTRI is intended to bring energy efficient and high-quality appliances (so called Top Runners) onto the market more quickly, thus accelerate market replacement. For this purpose, motivation, knowledge and competence in product-related energy efficiency is to be strengthened and expanded along the whole value chain - from the appliance manufacturer to the retailer and the consumer. Manufacturers are pushed to develop more efficient products and consumers get valuable information about Top-Runner products and how they can benefit. In this context, retailers are especially relevant as they act as "gatekeeper" between manufacturers and consumers. They play a key role in advancing an energy efficient production and consumption. They do not only select the products but they also have a direct contact to consumers and influence the purchase decision. In this paper, special emphasis will be put on the role of retailers and the efforts of the National Top Runner Initiative will be illustrated. Barriers and incentives to motivate this target group will be elaborated.
There is an extensive potential for GHG emission reductions in the new EU member states and the EU accession countries by improving energy efficiency, investing in renewable energy supply and other measures, part of which could be tapped by JI. However, the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and especially the recently adopted "Linking Directive" is probably going to have a significant impact on this JI potential. Especially two provisions are important:
The baseline of a project has to be based on the acquis communautaire, the environmental regulations of which are substantially higher than the Accession Countries' existing ones. Projects, which directly or indirectly reduce emissions from installations falling within the scope of the EU ETS, can only generate certificates if an equal number of EU allowances are cancelled. JI is thus put into direct competition with the EU ETS. In this paper we analyse the impact of these provisions first in theory and then country by country for six Central and East European countries that recently acceded the EU or are candidates for accession. As a result, we give an overview of the potential and the limitations of JI as an instrument for achieving emission reductions in the selected Accession Countries and provide important overview information to policy makers.
The green new deal and ecological industry policy : greening of manufacturing and energy generation
(2011)
Energy efficiency activities are high on the current EU energy policy agenda. Key policy instruments like the Energy Efficiency Directive (EED), the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) and the Energy Labelling Directive are under revision.
In a project for the German government, we therefore analysed the effectiveness and consistency of existing sectoral policy packages anew, to open the discussion on which policy changes to the EU's energy efficiency policy packages are crucial to reach the targets.
This comprehensive review addressed the industrial, buildings, and transport sectors plus the overarching governance framework (targets and roadmaps, EED, energy taxation and EU ETS). For each of these, the first step was a gap analysis of the main deficits in the sectoral policy packages, against effective model packages.
At first glance, the combination of energy efficiency policies at EU level seems already quite comprehensive. However, their design and implementation often lack a consistent and ambitious approach to leverage their full potential.
To give some examples of the many shortcomings identified, the governance framework suffers from exceptions and the transport sector being only marginally considered in the EED; an outdated Energy Tax Directive has very low minimum rates and several exception clauses; there is a lack of commitment to implement energy management systems and investment projects in large companies; a clear EU-wide definition of nearly zero energy buildings (nZEB) is missing; and the labelling of energy-using products is still confusing for consumers. Subsequently, we elaborated comprehensive policy recommendations to increase the effectiveness of all these policies, and to bridge some gaps with new policies. A list of priorities was established to sort them by their relevance.
Several low-carbon energy roadmaps and scenarios have recently been published by the European Commission and the International Energy Agency (IEA) as well as by various stakeholders such as Eurelectric, ECF and Greenpeace. Discussions of these studies mainly focus on technology options available on the electricity supply side and mostly omit the significant challenges that all of the scenarios impose on the energy demand side.
A comparison of 5 decarbonisation scenarios from 4 of the most relevant recent scenario studies for the EU shows that all of them imply significant efficiency improvements in traditional appliances, usually well above levels historically observed over longer periods of time. At the same time they assume substantial electrification of transportation and heating. The scenarios suggest that both of these challenges need to be tackled successfully for decarbonising the energy system.
With shares of renewable electricity reaching at least 60 % of supply in 2050 in almost all of the decarbonisation scenarios, the adaptation of demand to variable supply becomes increasingly important. This aspect of demand side management should therefore be part of any policy mix aiming for a low-carbon power system.
Based on a quantitative analysis of 5 decarbonisation scenarios and a comparison with historical evidence we derive the (implicit) new challenges posed by the current low-carbon roadmaps and develop recommendations for energy policy on the electricity demand side.
The concept of regime and "flat ontologies" : empirical potential and methodological implications
(2012)
The electric utility sector in Australia, Germany and the U.S. are all going through major changes driven by declining sales, increasing use of distributed energy sources and policy responses to global climate change. This paper discusses efforts in each of these countries to reform their electric industries, address climate change and promote energy efficiency. Going forward, we see a role for government, utilities and private market energy efficiency efforts in all three countries, although the emphasis will vary by country and will evolve over time. Where all three parties can work together with a common vision, reform efforts are likely to be more successful and more sustained. In all three countries the future is uncertain. In the face of this uncertainty, energy efficiency supporters need to keep abreast of these changes, and find more flexible and nimble policy strategies for energy efficiency to prosper, as the future is likely to unfold in unexpected ways.
"400,000 new homes per year are needed in German cities." This figure has been cited repeatedly in political discussions, media, and statements of different groups for a couple of years now. Living space is needed to mitigate the (further) inordinate increase of rents in some cities and regions and to ease finding appropriate flats at affordable prices for low- and medium-income households. But how to activate investors and the real estate market?
Having the triangle of sustainability in mind with its ecologic, social and economic cornerstones the discussion - metaphorically spoken - currently pulls the three corners: Which should have the highest priority?
The economically driven most favourable solution is lowering the requirements for new buildings such as the energy performance to make building cheaper. The social perspective prefers an increase of public social housing investments regardless of efficiency standards. And the ecological side argues that a high performance is needed to reach energy and climate targets in the buildings sector.
Starting at this point of discussion, firstly, the paper reflects the assumptions behind the numbers of new homes needed against a sufficiency background.
Secondly, it presents current changes in German building policies: a new legislation for energy supply and efficiency is currently in preparation.
It discusses the potential to integrate sufficiency aspects in building policies, focussing specifically on the new regulation, financial incentives, and energy advice.
The paper analyses if and to what extent it is likely to balance the three cornerstones of sustainability by integrating sufficiency aspects into efficiency policies. Household experiences with prepayment meters are used as an example to illustrate the potential for tapping efficiency and sufficiency potentials in low-income households considering social, economic, and ecological aspects. Based on the identified (in)consistencies, thirdly, it suggests further development in German policies to make better use of synergies between the ecologic, social and economic demands on buildings.
Although the anticipated "end of cheap oil" has boosted the interest in energy efficiency as a cornerstone of energy and climate strategies, it is usually taken into account on the basis of rather narrowly defined cost-benefit considerations. As a consequence, substantial ancillary benefits are usually barely considered.
In a recent study for the European Parliament (EP), the authors assessed two enhanced climate strategies compared to a more conventional strategy. One enhanced climate policy scenario relies, in particular, on raising the annual pace of energy efficiency improvement. The other aims at a radical boost of the market share of renewable energy forms, which, however, presupposes an equally radical improvement of energy efficiency.
The present article presents the scenario results and places them in the context of risk characterisation of the considered climate policy scenarios. Risks of international turmoil and energy price hikes could be reduced if dependency rates for fossil fuel imports went down. A more ambitious climate policy can also strengthen the EU position in post-Kyoto global climate agreements and a moderated need for emission trading can, for example, reduce conflicting pressures on clean technology transfer.
On the other hand, the implementation of the efficiency strategy will entail increased domestic risks because it will involve a re-prioritisation of resource allocation and will thus affect the current distribution of wealth in both the energy sector and some other closely related sectors.
The article outlines the main drivers behind the ambitious energy efficiency scenario and it attaches tentative price tags to the ancillary effects, with special emphasis on the above sketched swapping of risks. It will, therefore, strongly argue for a more holistic view, which underscores the need for political action and the benefits of such proactive policies in favour of energy efficiency.
Eine zukünftige Herausforderung der Energiewende wird darin bestehen, zunehmende Stromnetzeinspeisungen von fluktuierenden erneuerbaren Energien (FEE) in das Energiesystem zu integrieren. Neben den Flexibilitäten im Stromsystem sollten dabei auch die Möglichkeiten des Wärmemarktes zur Stabilisierung des Strommarktes berücksichtigt werden. So können Kraft-Wärme-Kopplungs-Anlagen (KWK), Elektroheizer und Wärmepumpen als Verbindungstechnologien zwischen Strom- und Wärmemarkt abhängig vom FEE-Dargebot und damit auch den Preissignalen des Strommarktes zu- bzw. abgeschaltet werden. Dazu werden Wärmespeicher benötigt, da die Flexibilisierung nur möglich ist, wenn die Produktion von der Wärmenutzung entkoppelt werden kann. Eine besonders aussichtsreiche Kopplung von Strom- und Wärmemarkt ist im Bereich der Fernwärmesysteme möglich, da sich hier große Energiemengen in Fernwärmespeichern im Vergleich zu dezentralen Lösungen kostengünstiger und effizienter speichern lassen.
Techno-economic feasibility study of solar and wind based irrigation systems in Northern Colombia
(2014)
Water pumping systems powered by solar and wind energy are a clean, decentralized and economic alternative for the irrigation of crops. The intense droughts experienced in the last years in Northern Colombia due to particularly strong Nino Phenomena have reactivated the need of reliable water pumping irrigation systems in that region. This study aims to assess the techno economic feasibility of solar and wind based pumping irrigation system, taking as case study the Municipality of Piojo in the Atlantico department. In the first stage of the study the irrigation water requirements were determined by using the software CROPWAT based on two different crop patterns that represent existing feasible alternatives for small farmers of the region: i) a common crop pattern, which represent the current average distribution of crops for subsistence farming and ii) a fruit cash crop pattern that comprises crops for which well established markets in the region exist. Solar wind and diesel based pumping systems were sized based on the crop water demands for 1 ha. The unit irrigation costs of the three technologies, the two crop patterns and the three irrigation methods (surface, sprinkler and drip) were calculated and compared. The economical analysis was complemented with a cost-benefit analysis over 20 years. Our results show that both renewable energy based pumping systems (wind and solar) can cover the irrigation water demands of small farmers in the region. The economical analysis shows that windmills are the most cost effective solution followed by the solar pumping system. Diesel pumping system was the less cost effective, even though it does not comprise investment in water storage tank. The cost benefit analysis demonstrates that any irrigation system is financially unfeasible when providing water to a common crop pattern. In case of the fruit cash crop scenario the highest dividends were obtained by the wind pumping system and the lowest dividends by the diesel pumping system. The lowest payback period was obtained by the windmill after 7 years and could be even feasible after the fifth year if the surplus water would be used to irrigate larger areas. Dividends obtained in a fruit cash crop scenario with irrigation after 20 years were in the range of EUR 5200 and EUR 11200 higher than dividends obtained by the same crop pattern but without irrigation.
Wind energy that can neither be fed into the grid nor be used regionally must be curtailed. This paper proposes different options to deal with such surplus wind energy amounts in a time horizon until 2020. It assesses their ability to handle the surplus energy in a sustainable way using a multi criteria analysis. The paper bases on a study that was prepared for the Ministry for Climate Protection, Environment, Agriculture, Nature Conservation and Consumer Protection of North Rhine-Westphalia between 2010 and 2012.
Urban development faces numerous challenges in the 21st century and a central task is the sustainable and liveable design of the city. Can the concept of a Smart City be a tool to making cities more liveable and sustainable? To find out, we chose a biographical method to analyse the steps towards a successful Smart City and to better understand the structures behind it. We combine the innovation biography method with a process model from sustainability governance research, namely Steurer's sustainability governance model and apply them to Vienna's Smart City, especially the preparation of the Vienna Smart City framework strategy (Steurer & Trattnigg, 2010). On the one hand, this article shows that a transfer of the innovation biography method to urban research can generate deeper insights on urban development processes in general. On the other hand, the approach chosen can show that Vienna integrates the sustainable urban design into the process of Smart City design. So the smart and sustainable city design, often called for in theoretical contributions, is practised in Vienna. Due to its reconstructive character, the biographical method has revealed that it is possible to govern sustainability by using Smart City as an umbrella strategy, as long as one manages it in an integrated and holistic way, recognises trends and is able to acquire and use research funds effectively and efficiently.
The knowledge gained from the new method for urban and Smart City research is twofold. Firstly, the transfer of the method previously developed in the human sciences and subsequently for organisations, institutions and products and services also works in urban research. Second, the innovation biography provides in-depth insights into the process towards the Smart City and the stakeholders involved. The use of the biographical method highlights the relevance of good governance in terms of interdisciplinary cooperation on the one hand and high political commitment on the other through the micro-level perspective and is also sensitive enough to highlight the importance of an appropriate narrative in and for the process towards the Smart City.
Since human nutrition is responsible for about 30 % of the global natural resource use and in order to decrease resource use to a level in line with planetary boundaries, Lukas et al. (2016) proposed a re-source use reduction in the nutrition sector by a factor 2 (Material Footprint).
The catering sector needs clearly defined indicators to assess their business activities' impact on ecology, social aspects, economic value, and health status. Within the project NAHGAST two sets of indicators, called NAHGAST Meal-Basis and NAHGAST Meal-Pro were developed. The indicator sets are proposed to measure several, with sustainability-associated challenges, such as such as the ecological, social and economical effects, which may come along with the production and the consumption of a meal. Basically, the NAHGAST Meal-Basis deals with qualitative indicators, such as the amount of organic food per serving or the percentage of food wasted. This set is supposed to enable leaders to assess the sustainability of their meals and to visualize future improvements on a simplistic level. The NAHGAST Meal-Pro deals with a more sophisticated set of indicators, such as the carbon and material footprint or the cost recovery per meal. Both sets are underpinned with sus-tainable targets and elaborated as an Excel-based assessment tool, which is tested within a one-year case study. The usefulness and the limits of the tool, as well as current results of the implementation including pro-posed challenges, are discussed.
On the pathway to climate neutrality, EU member states are obliged to submit national energy and climate plans (NECPs) with planned policies and measures for decarbonization until 2030 and long-term strategies (LTSs) for further decarbonization until 2050. We analysed the 27 NECPs and 15 LTSs submitted by October 2020 using an interrater method. This paper focuses on energy sufficiency policies and measures in the transport sector.
We found a total of 236 sufficiency policy measures with more than half of them (53 %) in the transport/mobility sector. Additionally, we found 41 measures that address two or more sectors (cross-sectoral measures). From the explicit sufficiency measures within the transport sector, 82 % aim at modal shift. A reduction of transport volumes is much less addressed. Countries plan to use mainly fiscal and economic instruments. Those are in many cases investments in infrastructure of low-carbon transport modes and taxation instruments. Plans on decarbonisation measures are also frequently mentioned. The majority of cross-sectoral measures are carbon taxes or tax reforms, also economic instruments.
On the one hand it is encouraging that Member States strongly emphasize the transport sector in their NECPs and LTSs - at least quantitatively and concerning sufficiency measures - because this sector has been the worst-performing in climate mitigation so far. On the other hand, the measures described seem not sufficient to reach ambitious climate targets, and we doubt that the presented set of policy instruments will get the transport sector on track to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in the necessary extent.