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Summary for policymakers
(2012)
Shifting the resource base for chemical and energy production from fossil feedstocks to renewable raw materials is seen by many as one of the key strategies towards sustainable development. The utilization of biomass for the production of fuels and materials has been proposed as an alternative to the petroleum-based industry. Current research and policy initiatives focus mainly on the utilization of lignocellulose biomass, originating from agriculture and forestry, as second generation feedstocks for the production of biofuels and electricity. These activities act on the assumption that significant amounts of biomass for non-food purposes are available. However, given a certain productivity per area, the current massive growth in global biofuels demand may in the long term only be met through an expansion of global arable land at the expense of natural ecosystems and in direct competition with the food-sector. Although many studies have shown the potential of biofuels production to reduce both, greenhouse gas emissions and non-renewable energy consumption, these production routes are still linear processes which depend on significant amounts of agricultural or forestry production area. Cascading use, i.e. when biomass is used for material products first and the energy content is recovered at end-of-life, may provide a greater environmental benefit than primary use as fuel. Considering waste and production residues as alternative feedstocks could help to further reduce pressures on global arable land. This research focused on thermochemical and biochemical technologies capable of utilizing organic waste or forestry residuals for energy, chemical feedstock, and synthetic materials (polymers) generation. Routes towards synthetic materials allow a closer cycle of materials and can help to reduce dependence on either fossil or biobased raw materials. The system-wide environmental burdens of three different technologies, including (1) municipal solid waste (MSW) gasification followed by Fischer-Tropsch synthesis (FTS), (2) plasma gasification of construction and demolition (C&D) wood for syngas production with energy recovery, and (3) forest residuals use in a biorefinery for polyitaconic acid (PIA) production, were assessed using life-cycle assessment. The first two studies indicated that MSW gasification and subsequent ethylene and polyethylene production via FTS has lower environmental impacts than conventional landfilling. In the future, as societies may shift towards the use of renewable energy, power offset by conventional waste-to-energy systems would not be as significant and chemicals production routes may then become increasingly competitive (in terms of environmental burdens) also to waste incineration. While production cost of Fischer-Tropsch derived chemicals seems not yet competitive to fossil-based chemicals provision, future price increases in global oil prices as well as changes in waste tipping fees, and efficiency gains on site of the waste conversion systems, may alter the economics and allow carbon recycling routes to reach a price competitive to fossil-based production routes. The third study found that plasma gasification of C&D wood for energy recovery has roughly similar environmental impacts than conventional fossil-based power systems. However, process optimization with respect to coal co-gasified, coke used as gasifier bed material, and fuel oil co-combusted in the steam boiler, would allow to significantly lower the system-wide environmental burdens. The fourth study looked at PIA production from softwood hemicellulose in a stream integrated approach (with the partially macerated wood and lignin being used in other existing processes such as pulp & paper plants for conventional pulp and bioenergy production). The assessment indicated lower global warming potential, energy demand, and acidification, for the wood-based PIA polymer, when compared to corn-based PIA and fossil-based polyacrylic acid (PAA). However, water use associated with wood-derived PIA was found to be higher than for fossil-based PAA production and land occupation is highest for the wood-derived polymer. It is hoped that results of this dissertation will add to the current debate on sustainable waste and biomass utilization and to establish future supply chains for green and sustainable chemical products.
The Durban conference decided to establish a new market-based mechanism that is to cover a broad segment of a country's economy. The implementation details are to be agreed at this year's conference in Qatar. The question is, however, which developing countries would actually be able to implement such a new mechanism. The introduction of the EU emission trading system highlighted the many challenges that even advanced developed countries face when establishing a carbon market. This paper by Wolfgang Sterk and Florian Mersmann therefore aims to explore the essential prerequisites for the implementation of new market mechanisms (NMM). In addition to a theoretical discussion it considers the cases of China and Mexico.
Defining the prevention of waste as top priority of the waste hierarchy - as confirmed by the revised Waste Framework Directive (WFD) - is much more than a simple amendment of ways to deal with waste, but means nothing less than a fundamental change of the socio-technical system of waste infrastructures and requires a transition from end-of-pipe technologies towards an integrated management of resources. The WFD therefore obligates member states to develop national waste prevention programs as a new policy instrument with the development of waste prevention indicators as one of the core elements. The article discusses the limitations of waste-based key figures and shows the need for more process-oriented indicators. As part of the development of national waste prevention programs such indicators reveal the relevance of different barriers that have to be overcome in order to make prevention an effective top priority in the waste hierarchy. With regard to path dependencies caused by sunk costs in end-of-pipe waste infrastructures the absolute amount of integrated environmental investments, as well as their share of the total waste-related investments, can be seen as indicators for the level of innovation activities aimed at waste prevention. Sector-specific indicators for the production phase could be used as benchmarks and to highlight differences in the need for policy interventions.
Leasing society : study
(2012)
Conflict minerals
(2012)
Wind energy that can neither be fed into the grid nor be used regionally must be curtailed. This paper proposes different options to deal with such surplus wind energy amounts in a time horizon until 2020. It assesses their ability to handle the surplus energy in a sustainable way using a multi criteria analysis. The paper bases on a study that was prepared for the Ministry for Climate Protection, Environment, Agriculture, Nature Conservation and Consumer Protection of North Rhine-Westphalia between 2010 and 2012.
This study aims to investigate whether, to what extent and how a transition toward integrated flood management has taken place in the Dongting Lake area at the middle Yangtze. Accordingly, we conducted a longitudinal research of its flood management (1949–2009). We developed an analytical framework linking regime components to two societal learning types (double and triple-loop learning) that are key to a regime transition. Our study shows that the transition toward integrated flood management has already started, but the whole regime transformation will still take time to complete, due to, for example, the not-yet-ready decision-making processes that shape the structure changes as well as the incompatibilities between what is on paper and real implementation. To understand how the regime transition took place, we investigated where and how triple-loop learning was initiated as well as how so-called "informal learning processes" has contributed to the transition of Dongting flood management.
To achieve an efficient use and allocation of limited water resources and thus resolve increasing water use conflicts due to fast rising societal water demands, in 2000, the Chinese government started a management strategy of 'Construction of a Water Saving Society (WSS)'. It is guided by the principle that socio-economic development should consider the carrying capacity of the ecosystem and focuses on institutional innovation, building on the water rights concept. This paper explores the innovation process during the transition towards WSS by investigating the development course of the innovation process during the transition towards WSS, and the adaptive capacity of the existing water management regime underlying the innovation process. Accordingly, an analysis framework consisting of three types of governance activities and factors determining a regime's adaptive capacity was developed, based on the theory of transition management and adaptive governance. The Tianjin and Zhangye WSS experiments were selected for a deep understanding of local innovations. It is revealed that co-evolution of all three types of governance activities that are claimed to be essential for transition has taken place. However, the current adaptive capacity of the regime still needs further enhancement to support the transition towards the desired WSS in China. Finally, some general insights are provided for policy innovations in other political economies.
For decades, the Chinese government has been searching for solutions to cope with the increasing imbalance between the supply and demand of water in the Yellow River Basin. This paper aims at a better understanding of the development of the water allocation regime in the Yellow River Basin between 1950 and 2009, introducing a fresh perspective based on the notion of "regime transition". Accordingly, we investigated 1) whether so-called "Windows of Opportunity for Transition (WOPTs)" emerged, triggering a transition, and whether WOPT(s) resulted in a stable transition towards the new regime; 2) how informal learning processes and epistemic communities have contributed to the regime change. We adapted Kingdon's "multiple stream model" and identified four WOPTs from the 1950s, analyzing the reconfiguration process of the regime after the onset of the transition. Our examples of two types of informal learning processes demonstrate their contribution to the creation of WOPTs and the reconfiguration of the regime. Furthermore, this study indicates, in a qualitative manner, how epistemic communities contribute to the knowledge base of the regime, and thus to its development. Finally, we have provided a general insight into the further development of the water allocation regime and highlighted potential avenues for further studies.
This thesis explores the opportunities and constraints for the adoption of a post-growth economy as a plausible approach towards sustainability by social movements. With the transdisciplinary perspective of sustainability science, the qualitative study of social movements and post-growth found that Germany does not have a post-growth movement. Nevertheless, the environmental movement and, in particular, Friends of the Earth Germany are suitable candidates of change for post-growth. However, they have not adopted post-growth yet because of certain gaps in bridging concepts of post-growth with their own work. To fill this gap, the study recommends to operationalize post-growth in five steps: (1) to distinguish between "sustainable liberalism" and "fair de-growth" as two major types of post-growth, (2) to re-frame the promises of economic growth as myths, (3) to complement "political choice" as means towards post-growth with "social choice", (4) to identify and compile areas of a post-growth economy, and (5) to overcome
the inherent power dilemma between agents of change and actors of these areas, that are required to be transformed, while forming coalitions between both. If these recommendations are taken into account by academics and activists, the environmental movement is more likely to successfully activate causal mechanisms of change for the transition to a post-growth economy. With its critique on the current comprehension of progress as economic growth, postgrowth is initiating a new, more fruitful phase of the sustainability discourse.
This report analyses the international climate negotiations at the UN climate conference in Doha in December 2012. The report is structured along the three main tracks of the negotiations: the agreement on a second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol, the closure of the Ad-hoc Working Group on Long-Term Cooperative Action under the Convention, and the start of negotiations on a new comprehensive climate agreement that are to be concluded by 2015.
The field of nutrition is facing numerous social, ecological and economic challenges in the coming decades. The food industry belongs to the most significant economic sectors worldwide and the increasing population of 9 billion in 2050 will cause a growing demand on food. So far, changing lifestyles, especially the global rising consumption of meat and dairy products are increasing environmental damage. Moreover our health and wellbeing are the direct result of healthy or unhealthy nourishment and influence follow-up indicators like individual and public health, the expense of the health sector and work productivity.
The material footprint is a tool to measure and optimize the resource consumption of both products and their ingredients and the production processes along the whole value chain. It covers the whole life cycle of the products, from the extraction of raw materials to the processing industry, distribution, consumption, recycling, and disposal. In order to decrease resource consumption to a level in line with the planetary boundaries, the material footprint of household consumption should achieve a level of six to eight tonnes per capita in a year by 2050. This means a reduction in natural resource consumption by a factor of 5 to 10 in Western European countries. In order to ensure a decent lifestyle for all people in 2050, also the material footprint of nutrition has to be reduced significantly by 2050.
The paper shows the relevance and role of nutrition in the overall material footprint of households on the basis of existing studies on the overall resource consumption caused by household consumption. Quantified meal and diet examples are given. It also discusses the causes of food waste and raises the question how a reduction of food waste is possible and can help decreasing the resource consumption in the food sector.
Fragmentation or standardisation? : Offset use in Australia, California, Japan and South Korea
(2012)
The potential of natural gas as a bridging technology in low-emission road transportation in Germany
(2012)
Greenhouse gas emission reductions are at the centre of national and international efforts to mitigate climate change. In road transportation, many politically incentivised measures focus on increasing the energy efficiency of established technologies, or promoting electric or hybrid vehicles. The abatement potential of the former approach is limited, electric mobility technologies are not yet market-ready. In a case study for Germany, this paper focuses on natural gas powered vehicles as a bridging technology in road transportation. Scenario analyses with a low level of aggregation show that natural gas-based road transportation in Germany can accumulate up to 464 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent emission reductions until 2030 depending on the speed of the diffusion process. If similar policies were adopted EU-wide, the emission reduction potential could reach a maximum of about 2.5 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent. Efforts to promote natural gas as a bridging technology may therefore contribute to significant emissions reductions.
This chapter is an excerpt from a study commissioned by the European Parliament, which examines EU subsidies for agriculture, fisheries, transport, energy and regional development. Based on proven methodologies for the identification and assessment of environmentally harmful subsidies, the study assesses the sustainability level of the sectoral policies and makes recommendations for a reform that would contribute to the alignment of the EU budget towards a more sustainable growth. The following sections provide the main findings of one of the largest fields of expenditure within the EU budget, the structural and cohesion policy.
In the past few decades, geochemically scarce metals have
become increasingly relevant for emerging technologies in
domains such as energy supply and storage, information and
communication, lighting or transportation, which are regarded as
cornerstones in the transition towards a sustainable post-fossil
society. Accordingly, the supply risks of scarce metals and possible
interventions towards their more sustainable use have been
subject to an intense debate in recent studies. In this article, we
integrate proposed intervention options into a generic life cycle
framework, taking into account issues related to knowledge
provision and to the institutional setting. As a result, we obtain
a landscape of intervention fields that will have to be further
specified to more specific intervention profiles for scarce metals
or metals families. The envisioned profiles are expected to have
the potential to reduce action contingency and to contribute to
meeting the sustainability claims often associated with emerging
technol ogies.
The cement industry is one of the major energy consuming and CO2 emitting sectors in China. In 2010, 1,868 million tons of cement has been produced, which accounted for 56.1% of the world's total cement production. The 11th Five-Year Plan (FYP) (2006-2010) included policy measures for CO2 emission abatement in cement production. Based on the main governmental framework of CO2 mitigation policies at national level in the cement sector, key policies and technologies used during this period are identified and their effects on CO2 reduction are assessed. This paper calculates the reduction of CO2 emissions related to four main policies and technologies for efficient cement production in the 11th and the 12th FYP (2011-2015) with 2005 as a reference year. These are waste heat recovery, closing outdated facilities, substitution for clinker production and other technologies aiming to increase energy efficiency. Due to these measures, we estimate that a total CO2 emission reduction during the 11th FYP of 397 million tonnes could be saved, which is considerably different to 185.75 million tonnes estimated by Zeng (2008) and 303 million tonnes by the NDRC by using different calculation methods. Of the four technologies, the 4th group of energy efficiency increasing techniques was the most important policy and avoided the largest amount of CO2 emissions. Previous energy intensity reduction was mainly due to the outdated production closing and energy efficiency improving. Based on the assessment of technology performance, it appears that there is still a large emission reduction potential in cement production processes. The paper calculates this potential for the 12th FYP period (2011-2015) based on these four identified policy measures. The result is compared to the Chinese government targets in the 12th FYP and promising future CO2 mitigation policies and technologies are proposed, such as the use of alternative energy.
MIPS / hot spot analysis
(2012)
Increasing urbanisation and climate change belong to the greatest challenges of the 21st century. A high share of global greenhouse gas emissions are estimated to originate in urban areas (40 % to 78 % according to UN Habitat 2010). Therefore, low carbon city strategies and concepts implicate large greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potentials. At the same time, with high population and infrastructure densities as well as concentrated economic activities, cities are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and need to adapt. Scarce natural resources further constrain the leeway for long-term, sustainable urban development. The Low Carbon Future Cities (LCFC) project aims at tapping this three-dimensional challenge and will develop an integrated strategy / roadmap, balancing low carbon development, gains in resource efficiency and adaptation to climate change. The study focuses on two pilot regions - one in China (Wuxi) and one in Germany (Düsseldorf+) - and is conducted by a German-Chinese research team supported by the German Stiftung Mercator. The paper gives an overview of first outcomes of the analysis of the status quo and assessment of the most likely developments regarding GHG emissions, climate impacts and resource use in Wuxi. The project developed an emission inventory for Wuxi to identify key sectors for further analysis and low carbon scenarios. The future development of energy demand and related CO2 emissions in 2030 were simulated in the current policy scenario (CPS), using five different sub-models. Selected aspects of Wuxi's current material and water flows were analysed and modelled for energy transformation and the building sector. Current and future climate impacts and vulnerability were investigated. Recent climatic changes and resulting damages were analysed, expected changes in temperature and precipitation in the coming four decades were projected using ensembles of three General Circulation Models. Although Wuxi's government started a path to implement a low carbon plan, the first results show that more ambitious efforts are needed to overcome the challenges faced.