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Staatliche Regulierung ist verpönt. Häufig läuft es dann auf den Appell hinaus: Jeder einzelne Bürger habe es selbst in der Hand. Doch die Alltagsroutinen sind in der Regel mächtiger als das Umweltbewusstsein. Beim Marmor für das Badezimmer spielen Amortisationszeiten keine Rolle. Die solare Warmwasseranlage ist dagegen oftmals "zu teuer". Gesetzliche Standards hingegen verselbstständigen Energieeffizienz und den Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien. Sie machen "Öko zur Routine". Dieser Artikel beschreibt die Notwendigkeit für das Schaffen neuer Routinen und zeigt wie dies durch Standards, Limits und faire Umsetzungsbedingungen sowie attraktive Alternativangebote zum gegenwärtigen, häufig nicht nachhaltigen Verhalten auch möglich ist.
Zwischen Anpassungs- und Veränderungsdruck : Klimafolgenanpassung und nachhaltige Transformation
(2015)
Strategien der Klimafolgenanpassung und der nachhaltigen Entwicklung werden in Deutschland kaum aufeinander bezogen. Kurzfristige Maßnahmenplanungen zur Schadensbegrenzung dominieren das politische Handeln, Fragen nach Vorsorge- und Gerechtigkeitsaspekten kommen zu kurz. Die Entwicklung resilienter Entwicklungspfade stellt eine Herausforderung für die real existierende Problembewältigung dar. Für die Umsetzung einer nachhaltigen und resilienten Klimaanpassungsstrategie ist ein Mix aus institutionell basierten Regeln und teilhabeorientierten Realexperimenten zur Erprobung von Neuem naheliegend.
Urbanization and climate change are amongst the greatest challenges of the 21st century. In the "Low Carbon Future Cities" project (LCFC), three important problem dimensions are analysed: current and future GHG emissions and their mitigation (up to 2050); resource use and material flows; and vulnerability to climate change.
The industrial city of Wuxi has been the Chinese pilot city of the project. To establish the pathway for a low carbon future, it is crucial to understand the current situation and possible future developments. The paper presents the key results of the status quo analysis and the future scenario analysis carried out for Wuxi. Two scenarios are outlined. The Current Policy Scenario (CPS) shows the current most likely development in the area of energy demand and GHG emissions until 2050. Whereas the extra low carbon scenario (ELCS) assumes a significantly more ambitious implementation, it combines a market introduction of best available technologies with substantial behavioural change. All scenarios are composed of sub-scenarios for the selected key sectors.
Looking at the per capita emissions in Wuxi, the current levels are already high at around 12 tonnes CO2 per capita compared to Western European cities. Although Wuxi has developed a low carbon plan, the projected results under current policies (CPS) show that the total emissions would increase to 23.6 tonnes CO2 per capita by 2050. If the ELCS pathway was to be adopted, these CO2 emission levels could be reduced to 6.4 tonnes per capita by 2050.
Die Entscheidung für ein von volatilen Erzeugungsquellen dominiertes Stromsystem stellt an die Stabilisierung des Systems neue Anforderungen. Zugleich bieten sich neue Optionen. Die bisherige Asymmetrie, nach der für die Stabilisierung die Kraftwerksseite verantwortlich sei, ist überkommene Praxis, deswegen auch heute habituell naheliegend, aber vermutlich nicht länger effizient. Die im Titel genannten nachfrageseitigen Ausgleichsoptionen (SE & DSM) bieten sich an. Im Beitrag wird deren Potential abgeschätzt. In vier Gestaltungsfeldern wird zudem gefragt, ob die bislang von der Politik gegebenen rechtlichen Mandate konsequent SE & DSM als Option berücksichtigen. Das Ergebnis ist viermal (weitgehende) Fehlanzeige.
Article 6 of the Paris Agreement establishes three approaches for countries to cooperate with each other in implementing their climate protection contributions. However, Article 6 sketches out only some basic contours; the details are to be filled in by further negotiations. This article surveys the views countries have submitted so far in order to identify the main issues at stake, points of controvery and convergence and possible ways forward. The submissions reveal some sharp differences in opinions on key issues such as the scope of the new mechanisms, how to operationalise the Article 6 requirement to increase ambition, whether to have international provisions on the promotion of sustainable development, and how to protect environmental integrity in the use of Article 6. The article concludes with a number of recommendations on how to address these controversies.
The 2015 Paris Agreement relies on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to outline each country's policies and plans for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To strengthen global climate action and achieve the Agreement's temperature goal, it is crucial to enhance the ambition level of NDCs every 5 years. While previous studies have explored the ambition of initial NDCs, limited research has delved into the factors driving the enhancement or lack thereof in NDCs' emission reduction plans. This study employs a mixed-method design to investigate the determinants of NDC enhancement. First, we analyse the updated or revised NDCs of 111 countries using quantitative methods. Second, we conduct qualitative case studies focusing on Brazil and South Africa. Our findings reveal that countries that engaged in stakeholder consultations with civil society, business, and labour groups prior to developing their updated or revised NDCs were more likely to enhance their greenhouse gas reduction targets. These results are further supported by the case studies. South Africa conducted comprehensive consultations and submitted an enhanced GHG target, while Brazil, which did not arrange open consultations, did not improve its target. This study underscores the significance of comprehensive and transparent stakeholder engagement processes, highlighting their potential to drive enhanced NDCs. By involving diverse stakeholders, including civil society, business, and labour groups, countries can foster greater ambition and effectiveness in their climate action, ultimately contributing to the global effort to combat climate change.
Wasting food, wasting resources : potential environmental savings through food waste reductions
(2018)
Food is needed to maintain our physical integrity and therefore meets a most basic human need. The food sector got in the focus of environmental policy, because of its environmental implications and its inefficiency in terms of the amount of food lost along the value chain. The European Commission (EC) flagged the food waste issue a few years ago and adopted since then a series of policies that partially address the problem. Among these, the Resource Efficiency Roadmap set the aspirational goal of reducing the resource inputs in the food chain by 20% and halving the disposal of edible food waste by 2020. Focusing on consumer food waste, we tested what a reduction following the Roadmap's food waste target would imply for four environmental categories in EU28 (European Union 28 Member States): greenhouse gas emissions, land use, blue water consumption, and material use. Compared to the 2011 levels, reaching the target would lead to 2% to 7% reductions of the total footprint depending on the environmental category. This equals a 10% to 11% decrease in inputs in the food value chain (i.e., around half of the resource use reductions targeted). The vast majority of potential gains are related to households, rather than the food-related services. Most likely, the 2020 target will not be met, since there is insufficient action both at Member State and European levels. The Sustainable Development Goals provide a new milestone for reducing edible food waste, but Europe needs to rise up to the challenge of decreasing its per capita food waste generation by 50% by 2030.
Emissions Trading Systems and Carbon Pricing schemes are spreading worldwide. This article looks at Carbon Pricing from the international perspective of the UN climate regime and describes what the Paris Agreement adopted in December 2015 means for international Carbon trading. In order to illustrate this, the authors first look back onto the provisions of the Kyoto Protocol and review its flexible mechanisms, namely International Emissions Trading, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI). In a second step, the changes that the Paris Agreement (PA) brings about for the Carbon Markets are described. Art. 6 of the PA is analyzed, stressing that Art. 6 introduces a new element into emissions trading: all activities carried out under Art. 6 must lead to a net mitigation effect with respect to GHG reduction, thus abandoning the principle of "offsetting" that was at the heart of the project-based mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol. The different Carbon trading options foreseen by Art. 6 are examined. Finally, the authors discuss ways forward and argue for early piloting schemes for the new "Paris mechanisms".
Die Suche nach einem Ausweg aus den festgefahrenen Klima- verhandlungen ist derzeit eine der wichtigsten Aufgaben der internationalen Politik. Franz Josef Radermacher (2013) versucht, so einen Weg aus dem Politikstau aufzuzeigen: In verstärktem Ausmaß sollten Privatakteure eingebunden werden und Klimaschutzmaßnahmen finanzieren, weil die internationale Staatengemeinschaft bisher daran gescheitert sei, ein Folgeabkommen für das Kyoto-Protokoll abzuschließen. Von der Staatengemeinschaft verlangt Radermacher nur noch, überhaupt irgendein Abkommen zuwege zu bringen, das die globalen Emissionen zumindest einigermaßen deckelt. Weitere Emissionsreduktionen, die "Verhandlungslücke", sollen Unternehmen und Privatpersonen übernehmen, indem sie freiwillig Emissionszertifikate im Umfang von mehreren hundert Milliarden Tonnen CO2 kaufen und stilllegen. Darüber hinaus sollen weitere 150 Milliarden Tonnen CO2 über Aufforstungsprojekte aus der Atmosphäre herausgeholt werden (Sequestrierung).
Vision development towards a sustainable North Rhine-Westphalia 2030 in a science-practice-dialogue
(2017)
The paper presents the results of a participatory vision development process in the Federal State of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) in Germany. The vision development was part of a scientific research project that accompanied the development of a sustainability strategy for NRW at state level. The Sustainability Strategy NRW was adopted in July 2016 and contains parts of the vision developed in the research project: Sentences from the narrative text vision and proposed targets and indicators that back-up the vision for a sustainable NRW in 2030 were used by the state of NRW. The vision was developed in iterative steps in three consecutive dialogue rounds with different stakeholders from science and practice. The paper presents the methodological approach and the results of the vision formulation process. The paper discusses the lessons learned from the vision development - from both practical and theoretical perspectives of transition management. The paper explores the relevance of setting ambitious targets for sustainable development as part of a state strategy by taking the proposed target of a "4 × 25% modal split" by 2030 as an example. The project demonstrated that a participatory approach for vision development is time and resource consuming, but worth the effort as it improves the quality and acceptance of a vision. Furthermore, the project demonstrated that transformative science contributes valuable inputs for sustainability transitions and for facilitating participatory vision development.
Wie weit können ambitionierte und flächenhafte Maßnahmen zur Verkehrsverlagerung im Personenverkehr im Ruhrgebiet dazu beitragen, die Ziele von Energiewende und Klimaschutz in der Region bis 2050 zu erreichen? Diese Frage wurde mit dem "Modell Ruhrgebiet" mittels systematischer Forecasting-Szenarien untersucht. Mit den Simulationsrechnungen können die Potenziale von integrierten Maßnahmen der Siedlungsentwicklung und Verkehrsplanung zur Verkehrsverlagerung vom motorisierten Individualverkehr zum Umweltverbund identifiziert werden. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass durch eine kombinierte Push- und Pullstrategie für den Modal Shift beachtliche Potenziale zur Verkehrsverlagerung und damit zur Verringerung der Kohlendioxidemissionen erschlossen werden können. Besonders wirksam sind restriktive Maßnahmen gegen den MIV. Die Ergebnisse verdeutlichen eine unbequeme Wahrheit: Es ginge, wenn man wollte.
Die Autoren fassen die Entwicklung Urbaner Produktion und der damit verbundenen ökologischen Beeinträchtigungen zusammen. Vor dem Hintergrund einschlägiger Forschung werden Methoden der Quantifizierung ökologischer Wirkungen Urbaner Produktion mit ihren globalisierten Lieferketten dargestellt. Der Artikel schließt mit einer Darstellung möglicher Perspektiven faktenbasierter, partizipativer Planung Urbaner Produktion.
Energy service companies (ESCOs) play crucial role in building energy efficiency retrofit sector. However limited access to green financing has prevented ESCOs in their expansions in China. This paper, based on a survey of 469 samples and on-site visiting to and interviewing relevant 50 actors of ESCOs, financial institutions and local housing authorities, identifies main barriers of accessing to green financing at both systemic policy level and operational meso and micro level in China, and analyzes good practices at local level that overcome the barriers. The paper concludes that, although there are barriers existing at the policy level in China, substantial attentions and priorities should be given to take actions for overcoming the barriers existed at the operational meso and micro level. The paper suggests that the good practices of capacity building for ESCOs and local financial sector, intensifying participation of intermediate organizations or facilitators and diversifying financial sources and funding mechanisms and models that emerge from the local level should be disseminated in China.
What can reasonably be expected from the UNFCCC process and the climate conference in Paris 2015? To achieve transformative change, prevailing unsustainable routines embedded in socio-economic systems have to be translated into new and sustainable ones. This article conceptualizes the UNFCCC and the associated policy processes as a catalyst for this translation by applying a structurational regime model. This model provides an analytical distinction of rules (norms and shared meaning) and resources (economic resources as well as authoritative and allocative power) and allows us to conceptualize agency on various levels, including beyond nation states. The analysis concludes that the UNFCCC's narrow focus on emission targets, which essentially is a focus on resources, has proven ineffective. In addition, the static division of industrialized and developing countries in the Convention's annexes and the consensus-based decision-making rules have impeded ambitious climate protection. The article concludes that the UNFCCC is much better equipped to provide rules for climate protection activities and should consciously expand this feature to improve its impact.
The sensitivity of climate phenomena in the low latitudes to enhanced greenhouse conditions is a scientific issue of high relevance to billions of people in the poorest countries of the globe. So far, most studies dealt with individual model results. In the present analysis, we refer to 79 coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations from 12 different climate models under 6 different IPCC scenarios. The basic question is as to what extent various state-of-the-art climate models agree in predicting changes in the main features of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the monsoon climates in South Asia and West Africa. The individual model runs are compared with observational data in order to judge whether the spatio-temporal characteristics of ENSO are well reproduced. The model experiments can be grouped into multi-model ensembles. Thus, climate change signals in the classical index time series, in the principal components and in the time series of interannual variability can be evaluated against the background of internal variability and model uncertainty.
There are large differences between the individual model predictions until the end of the 21st century, especially in terms of monsoon rainfall and the Southern Oscillation index (SOI). The majority of the models tends to project La Niña-like anomalies in the SOI and an intensification of the summer monsoon precipitation in India and West Africa. However, the response barely exceeds the level of natural variability and the systematic intermodel variations are larger than the impact of different IPCC scenarios. Nonetheless, there is one prominent climate change signal, which stands out from model variations and internal noise: All forced model experiments agree in predicting a substantial warming in the eastern tropical Pacific. This oceanic heating does not necessarily lead to a modification of ENSO towards more frequent El Niño and/or La Niña events. It simply represents a change in the background state of ENSO. Indeed, we did not find convincing multi-model evidence for a modification of the wavelet spectra in terms of ENSO or the monsoons. Some models suggest an intensification of the annual cycle but this signal is fairly model-dependent. Thus, large model uncertainty still exists with respect to the future behaviour of climate in the low latitudes. This has to be taken into account when addressing climate change signals in individual model experiments and ensembles.
Two for one : integrating the sustainable development agenda with international climate policy
(2017)
2015 was a watershed for international sustainability governance. With the Paris climate agreement and Agenda 2030, the international community adopted new targets and processes which are to guide policy for decades to come. Both emphasise the need for integration. In practice, however, climate change and sustainable development have so far been siloed issues.
The Glasgow climate conference marked a symbolic juncture, lying half-way between the adoption of the UNFCCC in 1992 and the year 2050 in which according to the IPCC special report on the 1.5°C limit net zero CO2 emissions need to be reached, globally, in order to maintain a good chance of achieving the 1.5°C limit. This article undertakes an assessment of what the UNFCCC and in particular the Paris Agreement and its implementation process have actually achieved so far up to and including the results of the Glasgow conference. The article discusses efforts at ambition raising both within and outside the formal diplomatic process, the finalization of the implementation rules of the Paris Agreement, as well as progress on gender responsiveness, climate finance, adaptation and loss and damage. In summary, the Paris Agreement and its implementation can be considered a success as it is having a discernible impact on the behavior of parties as well as on non-party actors. However, significant further efforts will be required to actually achieve the objectives of the Agreement.
Mit Inkrafttreten des Kyoto-Protokolls am 16.2.2005 gelten für Deutschland und die meisten anderen Industrieländer völkerrechtlich bindende Minderungsziele für die 6 im Kyoto-Protokoll erfassten Treibhausgase. Damit erlangt eine durchaus kontrovers diskutierte Klimaschutzstrategie, die auf eine stärkere Umstellung der Energienutzung von Öl und Kohle auf mehr Erdgas setzt, zusätzlich an Bedeutung. Der nachfolgende Beitrag setzt sich mit der Klimabilanz des Erdgases unter Berücksichtigung der gesamten Prozesskette auseinander. Insbesondere werden neue Messergebnisse aus Russland dargestellt (Wuppertal Institut 2004), die zeigen, dass die dem Export von russischem Erdgas nach Deutschland zuzuordnenden indirekten Emissionen nur etwa ein Viertel der bei der Erdgasverbrennung entstehenden direkten Emissionen betragen. Damit bleibt Erdgas auch unter Berücksichtigung der indirekten Emissionen in Russland der fossile Energieträger mit den mit Abstand geringsten Treibhausgasemissionen.
Decarbonizing transportation in emerging economies will be one of the key challenges in global climate change mitigation efforts. In this paper, pathways are developed towards achieving a 1.5° degree scenario for land-transport for four emerging economies (Brazil, India, Kenya and Vietnam). The aim is to highlight the key opportunities and challenges for low-carbon transport in countries with rapidly growing mobility demand. The main focus of this paper is to reconcile actual and required emission reduction targets and develop plausible pathways to achieve these targets. The paper also identifies potential strategies and measures for these countries to follow these pathways. The analysis considers the contributions of "avoid" (cutting travel growth), "shift" (to lower CO2 modes) and "improve" (vehicle and fuel CO2 characteristics) interventions to decarbonisation scenarios. These scenarios aim to inform renewed Nationally Determined Contributions and shed light on the feasibility of deep decarbonisation pathways that would be in line with the Paris Agreement. Results from this study show that achieving 1.5DS would require dramatic changes in travel patterns, technology and fuels, and major intensification of current policy approaches. Decarbonization solutions will need to include greater use and investment of efficient modes, major shifts toward near-zero carbon fuels such as clean electricity, systems integration, modal shift and urban planning solutions. Although the socio-economic situations and national transport systems differ between the selected countries, some fairly similar strategies appear likely to be core to the mitigation effort, such as rapid growth in light- and heavy-duty vehicle electrification and investments in public transit systems.
The transport sector is the second largest and one of the fastest growing energy end-use sectors, representing 24% of global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. The International Energy Agency has developed scenarios for the transport sector within the overall concept of mitigation pathways that would be required to limit global warming to 2 °C. This paper builds on these scenarios and illustrates various passenger travel-related strategies for achieving a 2° transport scenario, in particular looking at how much technology improvement is needed in the light of different changes in travel and modal shares in OECD and non-OECD countries. It finds that an integrated approach using all feasible policy options is likely to deliver the required emission reductions at least cost, and that stronger travel-related measures result in significantly lower technological requirements.
Wie sehen lebenswerte Quartiersstraßen aus und wie gelingt es, die Zieldimensionen Verkehrswende, Klimaanpassung und Aufenthaltsqualität integriert zu betrachten? Diesen Fragen hat sich über 1,5 Jahre das Projekt "Lebenswerte Straßen, Orte und Nachbarschaften" für einen konkreten Straßenzug in Dortmund gewidmet. Basierend auf einem kollaborativ angelegten Beteiligungs- und Planungsprozess ist eine gleichermaßen ambitionierte wie gesellschaftlich tragfähige Planung entstanden. Der Artikel gibt einen Überblick über das Projekt, stellt die Planung vor und diskutiert Erkenntnisse, die für die Initiierung vergleichbarer Projekte, aber auch für Landes-/Bundespolitik Relevanz besitzen.
This paper discusses options to increase mitigation ambition in crediting mechanisms that serve the Paris Agreement (PA), such as the Article 6.4 mechanism. Under the Clean Development Mechanism and other crediting mechanisms, baselines have been specified in the form of greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity factors and linked to business-as-usual developments. This means that with increasing production of goods and services through carbon market activities, absolute emissions may increase or fall only slowly. At a global level, such an approach widens the "emissions gap". To enable continued use of emissions intensity baselines in crediting mechanisms while being in line with the PA’s goal to pursue efforts to limit temperature rise to 1.5˚C, we propose to apply an "ambition coefficient" to emissions intensities of technologies when establishing the baseline. This coefficient would decrease to reflect increasing ambition over time, and reach zero when a country needs to reach net zero emissions. Due to the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, the coefficient would fall more quickly for developed than for developing countries. The latter would be able to generate emission reduction credits well beyond 2050, while for the former, crediting would stop around 2035 or before. An ambition coefficient approach would generate certainty for carbon market investors and preserve trust in international carbon markets that operate in line with the agreed, long-term ambition of the international climate regime.
Energy efficiency is a national priority for China as rapid energy consumption growth aggravates its greenhouse gas emissions, local air pollution and energy scarcity. In the 1990s, a large number of voluntary agreements emerged in industrialised countries in order to improve industrial energy efficiency. These experiences are now taken into account in China. This article analyses the drivers for voluntary agreements on industrial energy efficiency in China, based on a case study of three enterprises in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province. Furthermore, the article reviews the institutional set-up of energy policy and investigates the pertaining policy culture. From the findings, conclusions are drawn on the role of voluntary agreements within China's larger policy context. We conclude that opposed to avoiding stricter regulation, voluntary agreements in Nanjing are reinterpreted in view of more stringent national provisions on energy efficiency in the 11th Five Year Plan. Hence, agreements have evolved into an implementation tool of national policy at the local level. For industry, another major driver for participation was identified as improving its relations with local authorities. Voluntary agreements showed to have the potential to overcome traditional constraints of implementing top-down policies at the local level in China.
In order to calculate the financial return of energy efficiency measures, a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is a proven tool for investors. Generally, however, most CBAs for investors have a narrow focus, which is - simply speaking - on investment costs compared with energy cost savings over the life span of the investment. This only provides part of the full picture. Ideally, a comprehensive or extended CBA would take additional benefits as well as additional costs into account. The objective of this paper is to reflect upon integrating into a CBA two important cost components: transaction costs and energy efficiency services - and how they interact. Even though this concept has not been carried out to the knowledge of the authors, we even go a step further to try to apply this idea. In so doing, we carried out a meta-analysis on relevant literature and existing data and interviewed a limited number of energy experts with comprehensive experience in carrying out energy services. Even though data is hardly available, we succeeded in constructing three real-world cases and applied an extended CBA making use of information gathered on transaction costs and energy services costs. We were able to show that, despite these additional cost components, the energy efficiency measures are economically viable. Quantitative data was not available on how energy services reduce transaction costs; more information on this aspect could render our results even more positive. Even though empirical and conceptual research must intensify efforts to design an even more comprehensive CBA, these first-of-its-kind findings can counterargue those that believe energy efficiency is not worth it (in monetary terms) due to transaction costs or energy services costs. In fact, this is good news for energy efficiency and for those that seek to make use of our findings to argue in favor of taking up energy efficiency investments in businesses.
In his essay, the author presents a stock-taking of the debate on Green Deals. The starting point of this personal assessment is a brief outline of the content and impact of a study in which the author and colleagues published a first outline of a "Green New Deal for Europe" as a political response to the 2008 financial crisis. 2008 had been a critical juncture for mainstream economics: however, from the perspective of policy-learning, the period after has been a lost decade. The European Green Deal as presented by the European Commission in 2019 can be perceived as a historic milestone and confirmation of a regime change in mainstream economic policy in which ecological considerations gain in importance. Yet, the Deal suffers from major deficits. In sum, the European Green Deal could be interpreted as an insufficient attempt to take advantage of the rapidly closing windows of opportunity for a peaceful transition towards sustainability. On the eve of a planetary crisis, the governance of economic transitions towards sustainability needs to be improved and accelerated. Reflecting on the 2009 study A Green New Deal for Europe, this essay attempts to draw a few lessons and frugal heuristics for the policy-design of Green Deals.
The Digital Product Passport (DPP) is a concept of a policy instrument particularly pushed by policy circles to contribute to a circular economy. The preliminary design of the DPP is supposed to have product-related information compiled mainly by manufactures and, thus, to provide the basis for more circular products. Given the lack of scientific debate on the DPP, this study seeks to work out design options of the DPP and how these options might benefit stakeholders in a product's value chain. In so doing, we introduce the concept of the DPP and, then, describe the existing regime of regulated and voluntary product information tools focusing on the role of stakeholders. These initial results are reflected in an actor-centered analysis on potential advantages gained through the DPP. Data is generated through desk research and a stakeholder workshop. In particular, by having explored the role the DPP for different actors, we find substantial demand for further research on a variety of issues, for instance, on how to reduce red tape and increase incentives for manufacturers to deliver certain information and on how or through what data collection tool (e.g., database) relevant data can be compiled and how such data is provided to which stakeholder group. We call upon other researchers to close the research gaps explored in this paper also to provide better policy direction on the DPP.
The Durban Climate Conference agreed on the creation of a new market-based mechanism under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and to consider the establishment of an overall framework for various mitigation approaches, including opportunities for using markets ("Framework"). The creation of such a Framework is therefore of high political significance, as it should ensure on the one hand that new market-based mechanisms contribute to global climate change mitigation and to achievement of targets, and on the other hand, that different market-based approaches can be integrated in a global carbon market. As yet, there is little clarity as to the roles and design of such a framework. This paper contributes to the debate by discussing and evaluating inter alia several design options, and explores how the various options could be implemented and how they interrelate. It concludes that a strong central oversight at the level of the UNFCCC is probably the only option that could reassure the vast majority of UNFCCC Parties that the environmental integrity of new market-based mechanisms is in fact ensured. This does, however, not exclude that some reasonable balance may be struck between centralization and flexibility.
Non-residential buildings in the European Union consume more than one third of the building sector's total. Many non-residential buildings are owned by municipalities. This paper reports about an energy saving competition that was carried out in 91 municipal buildings in eight EU member states in 2019. For each public building an energy team was formed. The energy teams' activities encompassed motivating changes in the energy use behaviour of employees and small investments. Two challenges added an element of gamification to the energy saving competition. To assess the success of the energy saving competition, an energy performance baseline was calculated using energy consumption data of each public building from previous years. Energy consumption in the competition year was monitored on a monthly base. After the competition the top energy savers from each country were determined by the percentage-based reduction of energy consumption compared to the baseline. On average, the buildings had an electricity and heat consumption in 2019 that was about 8 % and 7 %, respectively, lower than the baseline. As an additional data source for the evaluation, a survey among energy team members was conducted at the beginning and after the energy competition. Support from superiors, employee interest and motivation and behaviour change as assessed by energy team members show a positive, if weak or moderate, correlation with changes in electricity consumption, but not with changes in heat consumption.
Limiting global warming to below 2 °C or even 1.5 °C requires a fundamental transformation of global socio-economic systems. This need for transformation has been taken up by international climate policy. This article synthesizes criteria of transformational change from transition research and climate finance agencies. On this basis, the article conducts a multi-criteria evaluation of the transformative potential of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), currently the world's largest market-based climate policy. From this case it can be inferred that emissions trading can "destabilize" incumbent high-emission practices, but its effectiveness in fostering innovation is limited. Furthermore, the analysis shows that details in the arrangements of the scheme such as allocation rules can have a strong detrimental impact on its outcome. If a global carbon market with a uniform price were introduced, this could lead to developing countries "buying in" with large amounts of freely allocated allowances. This, however, has been shown to thwart transformational effects and instead contribute to further carbon lock-in.
In order to reconfigure global socio-economic systems to be compatible with social imperatives and planetary boundaries, a transition towards sustainable development is necessary. The multi-level perspective (MLP) has been developed to study long-term transformative change. This paper complements the MLP by providing an ontological framework for studying and understanding the role of narratives as the vehicle of meaning and intermediation between individual and social collective in the context of ongoing transitions. Narratives are established as an analytical entity to unpack how disturbances at the level of the socio-technical landscape are translated into and contribute to the transformation of socio-technical regimes. To illustrate and test the approach, it is applied to the case of the Fukushima catastrophe: The narratives in relation to nuclear power in Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom are scrutinized and it is explored how these narratives have co-determined the policy responses and thus influenced ongoing transformation processes in the power sectors of the respective countries.
The potential of natural gas as a bridging technology in low-emission road transportation in Germany
(2012)
Greenhouse gas emission reductions are at the centre of national and international efforts to mitigate climate change. In road transportation, many politically incentivised measures focus on increasing the energy efficiency of established technologies, or promoting electric or hybrid vehicles. The abatement potential of the former approach is limited, electric mobility technologies are not yet market-ready. In a case study for Germany, this paper focuses on natural gas powered vehicles as a bridging technology in road transportation. Scenario analyses with a low level of aggregation show that natural gas-based road transportation in Germany can accumulate up to 464 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent emission reductions until 2030 depending on the speed of the diffusion process. If similar policies were adopted EU-wide, the emission reduction potential could reach a maximum of about 2.5 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent. Efforts to promote natural gas as a bridging technology may therefore contribute to significant emissions reductions.
The current global momentum for carbon pricing has lately produced innovative hybrids: carbon taxes allowing the use of offsets from emission sources not targeted by the carbon tax for compliance with the tax load. This study aims at filling the knowledge gap in existing literature by exploring the potential impacts of domestic offset components in carbon taxes on mitigation of national emissions, including the country examples Colombia, Mexico and South Africa.
The findings indicate that the use of offsets in carbon taxes may significantly influence mitigation of national emissions both positively and negatively. On the one hand, this model may result in real emission reductions from offset projects and positive spillover effects of efforts to reduce emissions from emission sources covered by the carbon tax to other emission sources. Furthermore, the offsetting component can be used as a bargaining chip in political negotiations facilitating the introduction of mitigation policies and measures and/or strengthening their ambition level. On the other hand, it also entails serious risks: Offsetting could compromise the environmental integrity of the carbon tax through low-quality offsets. Furthermore, offsets reduce incentives to curb emissions in the emission sources covered by the carbon tax, potentially leading to carbon lock-in effects. Moreover, an offsetting component could provoke opposition to further climate policies and measures for emission sources generating offsets, as replacing the offsetting component with mandatory emission reduction policies would eliminate revenues from offset credits. General opposition of stakeholder groups to the introduction of offsets may even hinder the introduction of carbon pricing instruments and offsetting altogether.
The study identifies options that could be employed to increase potential positive effects of introducing an offset component to a carbon tax and mitigate related risks, pointing to the country examples included, where appropriate.
Many cities all over the world highlight the need to transform their urban mobility systems into more sustainable ones, to confront pressing issues such as air and noise pollution, and to deliver on climate change mitigation action. While the support of innovations is high on the agenda of both national and local authorities, consciously phasing-out unsustainable technologies and practices is often neglected. However, this other side of the policy coin, "exnovation", is a crucial element for the mobility transition. We developed a framework to facilitate a more comprehensive assessment of urban mobility transition policies, systematically integrating exnovation policies. It links exnovation functions as identified in transition studies with insights from urban mobility studies and empirical findings from eight city case studies around the world. The findings suggest that most cities use some kinds of exnovation policies to address selective urban mobility issues, e.g., phasing-out diesel buses, restricting the use of polluting motor vehicles in some parts of the city, etc. Still, we found no evidence for a systematic exnovation approach alongside the innovation policies. Our framework specifies exnovation functions for the urban mobility transition by lining out policy levers and concrete measure examples. We hope that the framework inspires future in-depth research, but also political action to advance the urban mobility transition.
The United Nations climate change conference in Nairobi came at the end of a year where public awareness of climate change had reached unprecedented heights. Nonetheless, the conference proceeded with its usual diplomatic ritual, apparently unaffected by time pressure. While it did see some progress on important issues for developing countries such as the Adaptation Fund, the Nairobi Work Programme on Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation to Climate Change, and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), on questions regarding the future of the regime it proved to be at best a confidence-building session that served to hear further views. More serious work on the future of the regime must therefore be expected of the next Conferences of the Parties.
This article by Wolfgang Sterk, Hermann E. Ott, Rie Watanabe and Bettina Wittneben summarises the results of the conference.
The implementation of energy efficiency improvement actions not only yields energy and greenhouse gas emission savings, but also leads to other multiple impacts such as air pollution reductions and subsequent health and eco-system effects, resource impacts, economic effects on labour markets, aggregate demand and energy prices or on energy security. While many of these impacts have been studied in previous research, this work quantifies them in one consistent framework based on a common underlying bottom-up funded energy efficiency scenario across the EU. These scenario data are used to quantify multiple impacts by energy efficiency improvement action and for all EU28 member states using existing approaches and partially further developing methodologies. Where possible, impacts are integrated into cost-benefit analyses. We find that with a conservative estimate, multiple impacts sum up to a size of at least 50% of energy cost savings, with substantial impacts coming from e.g., air pollution, energy poverty reduction and economic impacts.
After two weeks of negotiations, climate diplomats completed the implementation of the Protocol, refined some of its instruments for implementation and agreed on processes for moving forward beyond the first Kyoto commitment period. The report by the Wuppertal Institute provides an overview and assessment of the agreements reached in Montreal.
After two decades of privatization and outsourcing being the dominant trends across public services, an inclination towards founding new municipal power utilities can be observed. In this article, the authors examine the preservation strategies of the German energy regime following the transition approach developed by Geels. From the multi-level perspective, it can be stated that innovations take place in niches and have to overcome the obstacles and persistence of the conventional fossil-nuclear energy regime. Through an empirical analysis, it can be concluded that the established regime significantly delays the decentralization process required for a transformation of energy structures on local electricity grids. Furthermore, it is shown that municipal utilities (Stadtwerke) are important key actors for the German Energiewende (energy transition) as they function as local energy distributors and they meet a variety of requirements to promote fundamental structural change. The trend towards re-municipalization and the re-establishment of municipal utilities reveal the desire to further strengthen the scope of local politics.
The implications of how climate funds conceptualize transformational change in developing countries
(2018)
The search for globally coordinated mitigation strategies that could contribute effectively towards bridging the gap between current emissions reduction efforts and a rapidly closing 2°C climate target remains contentious. The participation of developing countries through Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) is emerging as a crucial feature to attain this goal. Against this background, two of the major NAMA funding agencies have embraced "transformational change (TC)" and "paradigm shifts" as policy concepts. Yet, their operationalization within aid management approaches has not been fully justified. Concurrently, academic interest in theories of sustainability transitions has been growing, out of which the Transition Management (TM) approach provides the theoretical inspiration to study, and eventually promote, systemic TCs. However, there is still limited knowledge with which to contextualize the steering of such transitions to different settings. This article engages in these debates by reviewing the theoretical grounding behind the Green Climate Fund and the NAMA Facility's conceptualizations of TC through NAMA interventions against the corresponding theoretical assumptions of TM. Based on a critical review of relevant literature, it is argued that the logical framework-based approach adopted by the funds contains implicit assumptions of causality, which do not adequately cater for the uncertainties, non-linearity and feedback loops inherent in transition processes. The incorporation of more adaptive and reflexive elements is proposed as an alternative. This paper contributes to existing knowledge by critically reflecting on the applicability of TM towards governing sociotechnical transitions in the developing world and by exposing the limitations behind the current thinking underpinning NAMA funding. In conclusion, the systems perspective adopted in sustainability transition theories is thus recommended as a more rewarding approach towards understanding how attempts at transforming paradigms through support to climate policies and actions in developing countries are played out.
The European electricity market is linked to a carbon market with a fixed cap that limits greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, a number of energy efficiency policy instruments in the EU aim at reducing the electricity consumption. This article explores the interactions between the EU's carbon market on the one hand and instruments specifically targeted towards energy end-use efficiency on the other hand. Our theoretical analysis shows how electricity demand reduction triggered by energy efficiency policy instruments affects the emission trading scheme. Without adjustments of the fixed cap, decreasing electricity demand (relative to business-as-usual) reduces the carbon price without reducing total emissions. With lower carbon prices, costly low emission processes will be substituted by cheaper high emitting processes. Possible electricity and carbon price effects of electricity demand reduction scenarios under various carbon caps are quantified with a long-term electricity market simulation model. The results show that electricity efficiency policies allow for a significant reduction of the carbon cap. Compared to the 2005 emission level, 30% emission reductions can be achieved by 2020 within the emission trading scheme with similar or even lower costs for the industrial sector than were expected when the cap was initially set for a 21% emission reduction.
This paper argues that, although Japan's and Germany's energy transition paths differ in detail, a trend towards decentralisation is clearly evident in both countries. Based on comprehensive screening, own stocktaking and the results of a stakeholder dialogue, this paper highlights the motivation for different local actors to enter the energy market in both countries. Although there are challenges to success in a market dominated by large energy companies, this paper argues that the benefits to local communities outweigh the efforts. Overall, it is shown that democratisation and the decentralisation of the energy system are suitable to facilitate a successful transformation process in both countries.
Green hydrogen will play a key role in building a climate-neutral energy-intensive industry, as key technologies for defossilising the production of steel and basic chemicals depend on it. Thus, policy-making needs to support the creation of a market for green hydrogen and its use in industry. However, it is unclear how appropriate policies should be designed, and a number of challenges need to be addressed. Based on an analysis of the ongoing German debate on hydrogen policies, this paper analyses how policy-making for green hydrogen development may support industry defossilisation. For the assessment of policy instruments, a simplified multi-criteria analysis (MCA) is used with an innovative approach that derives criteria from specific challenges. Four challenges and seven relevant policy instruments are identified. The results of the MCA reveal the potential of each of the selected instruments to address the challenges. The paper furthermore outlines how instruments might be combined in a policy package that supports industry defossilisation, creates synergies and avoids trade-offs. The paper's impact may reach beyond the German case, as the challenges are not specific to the country. The results are relevant for policy-makers in other countries with energy-intensive industries aiming to set the course towards a hydrogen future.
On September 17, 2019, EU Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager allowed the electricity company Eon to take over and break up RWE subsidiary Innogy under lenientconditions. But there are numerous experts who have a different opinion and argue that the EU Commission approval is a "decision of enormous importance" that will "fundamentally change the entire sector". The result of this decision is that this mega-deal creates two monolithic giants in the German energy sector with unprecedented market power. If one compares the situation with the purchase of the electricity supplier Nuon by Vattenfall in 2009, questions arise. Back then, the competition authorities forced Vattenfall to divest parts of Nuon's business in individual cities, which resulted in the supplier "lekker energie". Following this example, the competition authorities should have consistently forced Eon to sell parts of the business, such as larger distribution companies.
A transaction of this magnitude should always be viewed critically in competition law. The legitimate question therefore arises as to why the German and European competition authorities (the Federal Cartel Office, the Federal Network Agency, the Monopolies Commission and the European Competition Commission) faced this deal with barely audible criticism and why they did not react with far-reaching prohibition requirements. "Competition doubts are certainly justified". Because if the two largest German energy groups completely eliminate each other's competition and completely divide up their business areas among themselves, this will have far-reaching consequences for the energy sector. Especially against the background that the energy transition in Germany has so far been characterised by decentralised structures and civic participation (especially in the case of electricity generation from renewable energies). In this paper, the authors will demonstrate what this Eon/RWE deal means for competition and the energy transition.
Climate change induces various risks for supply chains of manufacturing firms. However, surveys have suggested that only a minority of firms conducts strategic adaptations, which we define as anticipatory and target-oriented action with the purpose of increasing resilience to climate change. While several barrier-centered studies have investigated the causality of non-adaptation in industry, the examined barriers are often not problem-specific. Furthermore, it has been shown that even in cases when managers perceive no barriers to adaptation at all, strategic adaptations may still not be conducted. On this background, the present analysis focuses on the logic of adaptive inaction, which we conceive, in particular, as inaction with regard to strategic adaptations. Adopting an action-theoretical perspective, the study examines (a) which aspects may shape the rationality of adaptive inaction among managers, (b) which more condensed challenges of conducting strategic adaptations emerge for managers, and (c) how the theoretical propositions can be tested. For this purpose, the study employs an exploratory approach. Thus, hypotheses on such aspects are explored, which may shape the rationality of adaptive inaction among managers. Subsequently, predictions are inferred from the theoretical propositions, which allow testing their empirical relevance. Methodologically, the hypotheses are explored by reexamining existing explanatory approaches from literature based on a set of pretheoretical assumptions, which include notions of bounded rationality. As a result, the study proposes 13 aspects which may constrain managers in conducting adaptations in such a way, which serves the economic utility of the firm. By condensing these aspects, 4 major challenges for managers are suggested: the challenges of (a) conducting long-term adaptations, of (b) conducting adaptations at an early point in time, of (c) conducting adaptations despite uncertain effects of the measures, and of (d) conducting adaptations despite cross-tier dependencies in supply chains. Finally, the study shows how the propositions can be tested and outlines a research agenda based on the developed theoretical suggestions.
Purpose - Since the registration of the first clean development mechanism (CDM) project in 2004, the CDM has seen a dynamic expansion: the CDM pipeline currently comprises 6,725 projects generating 2.73 billion certified emission reductions (CERs) up to 2012. These CERs result in a substantial financial flow from Annex I to Non-Annex I countries. But CDM projects also result in investments in low carbon technologies, a substantial share of which is focused on the energy sector. The total installed capacity of all CDM projects amounts to 288,944 MW. However, the CDM is not widely taken up in Africa. This holds true for Africa's share in the CDM project pipeline (2.62 per cent), for Africa's share in CERs generated up to 2012 (3.58 per cent) and for the normalized CERs per capita, per country. Two hypothesizes are commonly discussed: first, the continent features low per capita emissions and low abatement potentials. Second, African countries may be hampered by weak institutional frameworks. This article reviews both hypotheses and presents new empirical data. The paper aims to discuss these issues.
Design/methodology/approach - Investigating the greenhouse gas (GHS) abatement potential of 16 energy-related sectors for 11 selected least developed countries in sub-Saharan Africa shows a total theoretical CDM potential of 128.6 million CERs per year. Analyzing investment indicators confirms that most countries are impeded by below average investment conditions.
Findings - It is concluded that Africa offers a considerable range of substantial abatement potentials. However, the weak institutional framework is limiting the uptake of the CDM in Africa. This is underpinned by an analysis which shows if a CDM sector has high investment cost, Africa will have a low share in the sector. If the sector has low investment needs per CER, Africa's share in the CDM sector will be bigger. Investment needs and Africa's share in the pipeline feature a negative correlation.
Research limitations/implications - Supporting CDM development in Africa should not be constraint to technical assistance. It will be crucial to develop an integrated financing approach, comprising the CDM as a co-financing mechanism, to overcome the institutional challenges.
Originality/value - Until today, there are few empirical studies that use concrete criteria and indicators to show why the CDM is underrepresented in Africa. The work presented here contributes to filling this gap.
The calm before the storm : an assessment of the 23rd Climate Change Conference (COP 23) in Bonn
(2018)
From 6 to 17 November, the 23rd Conference of the Parties (COP23) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was held in Bonn under the presidency of Fiji. Researchers of the Wuppertal Institute, who attended the conference, have now published an in-depth analysis of the key results of the conference.
The report starts by discussing developments regarding the implementation of the Paris Agreement, in particular the negotiations on the detailed "rulebook" for implementing the Agreement. Other key issues addressed at the conference were the support for countries of the Global South in dealing with the effects of climate change (adaptation and climate finance) and preparation of the first global review of climate action that will take place in December this year. In addition, the report discusses recent developments in the wider world that have an impact on the UNFCCC, in particular the rise of pioneer alliances at the intergovernmental and civil society level.
Although some progress was achieved regarding the rulebook for implementation of the Paris Agreement, no real breakthrough was made. Therefore, quite some diplomatic work and political leadership will be needed this year to make the adoption of the rulebook at COP24 in Katowice (Poland) possible. This will require quite some tailwind from civil society and the media.
Considerable efficiency gains can be made costeffectively to set the transport sector on a sustainable development pathway. They can be achieved through already available technologies and practices, which will not only reduce greenhouse gas emissions significantly, but also generate social, environmental and economic co-benefits. However, progress in the take-up of low-carbon mobility measures substantially lags behind the potential. A number of barriers contribute to this lack of uptake. This paper explores those barriers by focusing on vehicle fuel efficiency in particular, but will also touch on the wider policy framework to improve the efficiency of the transport sector and reduce emissions. The paper suggests that a combination of fuel pricing, differentiated vehicle taxation, vehicle standards and the provision of modal choice are necessary to minimise rebound effects and significantly curb transport sector greenhouse gas emissions at low- or even negative cost.
The international climate negotiations have seen endless struggles between countries from South and North for almost 17 years, ever since the initiation of negotiations by the International Negotiation Committee (INC) for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The 13th meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC and the 3rd meeting of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (COP 13 / CMP 3) held in Bali in December 2007 (the Bali conference) could mark the beginning of a rapprochement. Parties agreed on initiating a new "Ad-hoc working group on Long-Term Cooperative Action under the Convention" (AWG-LCA) that aims to negotiate a post-2012 agreement with participation of all parties, including the US and developing countries, by the end of 2009 at COP 15 / CMP 5 in Copenhagen. This article examines the outcomes of the Bali conference, focussing on the negotiations regarding post-2012, flexible mechanisms, financial mechanisms, technology transfer and deforestation. Finally, the article concludes that the Bali Conference saw a significant shift in the battle lines, a rearrangement of positions and alliances that might well announce a decisive new era in global climate policy and provides a real chance to agree on an effective and workable post-2012 agreement in Copenhagen.