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Under the framework of the UN framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto Protocol the targets and strategies for the second and third commitment period ("post-2012") have to be discussed and set in the near future. Regarding the substantial emission reductions that have to be shouldered by the industrialized nations over the next two decades it is evident that all available potentials to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have to be harnessed and that energy efficiency has to play a key role.
To substantiate this we developed a comprehensive scenario analysis of the EU 25s energy system and other greenhouse gas emissions until 2020. Our analysis shows which key potentials to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions are available, by which policies and measures they are attainable
and which will be benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation measures.
By this analysis we show the mayor role of energy efficiency in all sectors and all member states. We demonstrate that a reduction of EU 25 greenhouse gas emissions by more than 30 % by 2020 is feasible, reasonable and - to a large extent - cost effective. We also develop a comprehensive policy package necessary to achieve ambitious Post-Kyoto targets.
The scenario analysis results in a clear identification of the needed strategies, policies and measures and especially the relevance of energy efficiency to achieve the necessary ambitious greenhouse gas reduction targets. It also clearly shows the costs and the benefits of such a policy compared to a business as usual case.
The German climate change programme (2000) identified the residential sector as one of the main sectors in which to achieve additional GHG reductions. Our case study compiles results of existing evaluations of the key policies and measures that were planned and introduced and carries out some own estimates of achievements. We show, which emission reductions and which instruments where planned and what was delivered until 2004.
Legal instruments such as the revised building code were introduced later than planned and their effects will - at least partly - fall behind expectations. Other legal instruments such as minimum energy performance standards for domestic appliances etc. were - in spite of the programme - not implemented yet.
On the other hand, substantial financial incentives were introduced. Especially schemes granting low-interest loans for building renovation were introduced. However tax subsidies for low-energy buildings were phased out.
In general we can conclude from our case study that Germany was not able to compensate for the slower or restricted implementation of legal instruments through the introduction of financial incentives. Particularly the efficient use of electricity has been left aside as almost no further policy action was taken since 2001.
Thus energy efficiency in the residential sector will not deliver the GHG reductions planned for in the German climate change programme until 2005. From our findings we draw conclusions and recommendations towards policy makers: Which lessons are to be learnt and what has to be done in order to fully harness EE potentials in residential sector as planned for 2010?
As many other countries, Germany misses to exploit most of its large potential for cost-effective energy efficiency improvements. An organisation collecting funds and allocating them to the most (cost-)effective programmes could be a solution.
Therefore, political parties and trade unions as well as environmental NGOs have called for the creation of such an Energy Efficiency Fund. A recent study by the Wuppertal Institute together with a number of partners, commissioned by the Hans Böckler Foundation, analysed the feasibility of such an institution.
It has been the objective of the project, completed in March 2005, to
identify the added value of an Energy Efficiency Fund,
develop concrete proposals for the institutional setting and the financing of an Energy Efficiency Fund in Germany,
prepare and assess the benefits and costs of a portfolio of innovative but realistic energy efficiency programmes and campaigns, which the Energy Efficiency Fund would implement,
identify the effects of the fundraising and the programmes on different industries, particularly on the suppliers of energy-efficient technologies and services, and on their growth and employment perspectives,
estimate the net employment effects of such an Energy Efficiency Fund and its activities.
This paper presents the results and assesses the usefulness of the project and the participatory elements for increasing the acceptance of such a policy instrument.
There is an extensive potential for GHG emission reductions in the new EU member states and the EU accession countries by improving energy efficiency, investing in renewable energy supply and other measures, part of which could be tapped by JI. However, the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and especially the recently adopted "Linking Directive" is probably going to have a significant impact on this JI potential. Especially two provisions are important:
The baseline of a project has to be based on the acquis communautaire, the environmental regulations of which are substantially higher than the Accession Countries' existing ones. Projects, which directly or indirectly reduce emissions from installations falling within the scope of the EU ETS, can only generate certificates if an equal number of EU allowances are cancelled. JI is thus put into direct competition with the EU ETS. In this paper we analyse the impact of these provisions first in theory and then country by country for six Central and East European countries that recently acceded the EU or are candidates for accession. As a result, we give an overview of the potential and the limitations of JI as an instrument for achieving emission reductions in the selected Accession Countries and provide important overview information to policy makers.
Although the anticipated "end of cheap oil" has boosted the interest in energy efficiency as a cornerstone of energy and climate strategies, it is usually taken into account on the basis of rather narrowly defined cost-benefit considerations. As a consequence, substantial ancillary benefits are usually barely considered.
In a recent study for the European Parliament (EP), the authors assessed two enhanced climate strategies compared to a more conventional strategy. One enhanced climate policy scenario relies, in particular, on raising the annual pace of energy efficiency improvement. The other aims at a radical boost of the market share of renewable energy forms, which, however, presupposes an equally radical improvement of energy efficiency.
The present article presents the scenario results and places them in the context of risk characterisation of the considered climate policy scenarios. Risks of international turmoil and energy price hikes could be reduced if dependency rates for fossil fuel imports went down. A more ambitious climate policy can also strengthen the EU position in post-Kyoto global climate agreements and a moderated need for emission trading can, for example, reduce conflicting pressures on clean technology transfer.
On the other hand, the implementation of the efficiency strategy will entail increased domestic risks because it will involve a re-prioritisation of resource allocation and will thus affect the current distribution of wealth in both the energy sector and some other closely related sectors.
The article outlines the main drivers behind the ambitious energy efficiency scenario and it attaches tentative price tags to the ancillary effects, with special emphasis on the above sketched swapping of risks. It will, therefore, strongly argue for a more holistic view, which underscores the need for political action and the benefits of such proactive policies in favour of energy efficiency.
Toothless tiger? : Is the EU action plan on energy efficiency sufficient to reach its target?
(2007)
Motivated by, inter alia, the increasing energy prices, the security of energy supply and climate change, the new EU "Action Plan for Energy Efficiency: Realising the Potential" (EEAP), sets out the policies and measures required to be implemented over the next six years to achieve the EU's goal of reducing annual primary energy consumption by about 20 % by 2020. By increasing energy efficiency, the security of energy supply and the reduction of carbon emissions are also improved.
The paper will analyse the 20 % target of the new EEAP for the energy demand side by comparison with different recent energy scenarios for the EU. It will therefore review the recommended policies and measures and examine, in which energy demand sectors energy efficiency may be increased and to which extend. The main focus is whether the recommended policies and actions will be sufficient and which additional measures may be useful, if additional measures are needed.
Future of car-sharing in Germany : customer potential estimation, diffusion and ecological effect
(2007)
About 2 % of the overall electricity consumption of the EU is caused by circulators in single or double family homes and flats. A new technology of pumps with electronically commutated (EC) motor pumps is available now; it is one possible way to achieve a reduction in circulator annual electricity use by 60 % or more.
The project's objective is a market transformation towards this new very energy-efficient pump technologies - Energy+ pumps - for circulators in heating systems, both stand alone and integrated in boilers. Only few manufacturers have so far introduced the new pump technology to the market for single or double family homes and flats.
To bring more products to the market from all major manufacturers, the project will adapt and apply the technology procurement methodology as it was very successfully tested in the European Energy+ project on energy-efficient cold appliances.
Large buyers will be aggregated, to activate the pump and boiler manufacturers. Sales and training materials and a sizing spreadsheet software for installation contractors will be developed and applied. A competition both for energy-efficient products and marketing campaigns will be organised and the information on the Energy+ pumps will be disseminated widely through website, newsletter, media, and fairs.
This paper gives a short overview of this project and presents the results of the first project phases: a European wide market study on circulators and heating systems, and the first Energy+ lists for circulators, buyers and supporters.
Innovation and diffusion of car-sharing for sustainable consumption and production of urban mobility
(2008)
Bad Hersfeld is a small city with about 30.000 inhabitants situated in the middle of Germany. Climate Protection has been on the political agenda in Bad Hersfeld since quite a while. In 1997 the Wuppertal Institute elaborated a first energy and CO2 balance for the city, which was updated in 2007. With the compilation of the CO2 balance it was shown that the emissions in Bad Hersfeld almost stayed at a constant level between 1997 and 2006.
The result was sobering for the local authority. Although some single measures had been implemented, there was no improvement of the CO2-balance.
It was concluded that a successful climate protection strategy needs a comprehensive concept comprising all sectors and a periodic monitoring. Bad Hersfeld commissioned the Wuppertal Institute to develop feasible measures to reduce the CO2 emissions drastically and instruments to overcome existing barriers. In a close cooperation with the City Council and the local municipal utility a climate protection concept was compiled that is rather ambitious for a city of this size.
In consideration of the regional peculiarities12 concrete measures and 7 accompanying measures build the core of the concept with a main focus on energy efficiency (final energy), combined heat and power (CHP) and renewable energies. Another important part of the concept is a municipal support programme to develop the endogenous efficiency potentials and renewable energies in the region. Further to these planning instruments, information and networking activities are compiled as well as a variety of suggestions for a climate protection marketing (Wagner 2008).
Some of these measures that were developed in an iterative and cooperative process between the responsible actors in Bad Hersfeld and the Wuppertal Institute are transferable to other cities and towns. The impeding factors in Bad Hersfeld like the user-investor dilemma, the low capital of small housing associations or the large stock of listed historical buildings, are typical for cities of this size.
How much energy saving is 1 % per year? : We still don t know, but we know better how to find out
(2009)
The Chinese national government has put energy efficiency and pollution control at the heart of its 11th five-year plan (2005-2010). However, implementation of national policies at the local level is notoriously poor in China. In order to tackle this problem, voluntary agreements were signed between local Environmental Protection Bureaus and 14 mostly state-owned companies from different energy-intensive sectors in Nanjing, Xi'an and Kelamayi in the context of an ongoing EU-funded pilot project. In Nanjing, for instance, agreed targets are in the range of a 3-5% reduction in energy intensity by 2009 over a 2007 baseline. The pilot agreements are informed by Dutch experiences with long-term agreements on energy efficiency (LTA/1989-1999) as European best practice, but have been significantly adjusted to Chinese circumstances. Much emphasis was put on process management applying a cooperative approach throughout. Each enterprise put together a so-called Energy Action Team for voluntary agreement development and implementation. This helped to create a sense of ownership in the companies and assigned clear responsibilities. Energy Action Teams conducted Energy Potential Scans in cooperation with a Dutch expert to identify energy saving potentials and possible measures to realize them. On this basis, achievable targets were agreed and a detailed action plan was developed. A first evaluation is scheduled for April 2009. By lifting industry on a more equal power level with government authorities, voluntary agreements showed to be an effective policy instrument to overcome traditional institutional constraints to environmental policy implementation at the local level in China.
Based on a comprehensive scenario analysis of the EU's GHG emissions by 2020, we show that the 20% energy savings target set in the Action Plan "Doing more with less" in 2006 is still the most significant and thus indispensable strategy element within an ambitious EU climate and energy strategy targeting at a 30% reduction of GHG emissions by 2020.
The scenario analysis provides a sector by sector projection of potential future energy use and GHG emissions, combined with a detailed policy analysis of the core policies on energy efficiency by the EU and its Member States taken from current research results by the authors and others.
Consequently the paper identifies and quantifies the current implementation deficit in the EU and shows that, despite of sufficient targets, implementation is still significantly lacking in almost all fields of energy efficiency. Some, e.g. transport sector and buildings, are still substantially far from receiving the necessary political impetus. The paper also demonstrates co-benefits of a strong energy efficiency strategy, e.g. the achievability of the targets of the RES directive, which crucially depends on a strong efficiency policy.
We conclude that the efforts of the energy efficiency policy of the EU and its Member States have to be significantly intensfied. As proposed by the EU in case that other developed and key developing countries take up comparable targets in order to fulfil its role in the climate and energy strategy. To achieve this, we offer an analysis of the current weaknesses of EU energy efficiency policy and derive recommendations on how the EU can still reach its targets for 2020.
Evaluation of energy saving measures in the transport sector : a review of efforts and certainty
(2009)
The EU Directive on Energy End-use Efficiency and Energy Services (ESD) set an indicative target for EU Member States to achieve a 9% annual energy saving by 2016 from new energy efficiency improvement (EEI) measures. Until now there has been no common methodology on how to measure and evaluate such savings. An international consortium funded by the Intelligent Energy Europe programme and co-ordinated by the Wuppertal Institute has developed harmonised methods for the evaluation of end-use EEI measures. The European Commission encourages Member States to prove energy savings with the help of these methods.
From the evaluation point of view, the transport sector is a special case. In the transport sector, data collection appears to be difficult. A number of values can be derived from existing national statistics, but sources have to be analysed in order to be operational. In passenger transportation, measures prevalently aim at changing mobility behaviour. Mobility behaviour depends on specific socio-economic and local conditions and might therefore vary considerably from measure to measure. Often, only surveys that are well-defined for certain conditions can generate appropriate data.
The paper discusses availability and certainty of data sources to be derived to evaluate EEI measures in passenger transportation. It first introduces two transport-related bottom-up evaluation methods for the transport sector. One aims at evaluating measures fostering vehicle energy efficiency. The other one aims at evaluating modal shifts. The paper then points to sources of corresponding data and the way the data have to be analysed. Thereby it demonstrates the trade-off between evaluation costs and the level of certainty. In so doing, it gives recommendations how to conduct the evaluation of transport-related EEI measures with keeping both efforts low and certainty high.
The general conditions for local authorities in Germany have changed fundamentally during the last decades. Not only do municipalities compete with each other for employment, prestige and competitive advantages, they also face increasingly higher demands by their citizens, for instance in the area of climate protection.
Therefore, every municipality has to consider various economic, social and ecological determinants in its decision-making processes. With respect to public buildings, an economically-oriented cost-benefit-analysis alone is not adequate due to a municipality's role as "consumer and role model". To identify measures with a broader benefit, a multicriteria analysis (MCA) has been used to analyze energy efficiency measures in public buildings for the city of Dortmund.
For several years Dortmund has committed itself to implement energy efficiency measures and improve the energy performance of its building stock. Nevertheless, a benchmark analysis still shows a high energy saving potential that cannot be tapped with the existing measures and instruments. Therefore, a package of measures has been developed in close cooperation with the city of Dortmund, ranging broadly from measures of energetic retrofitting and green IT to behavioral change of building occupants.
In the MCA these measures have been assessed according to ten different criteria such as innovativeness, cost effectiveness, external costs, CO2 reduction potential, local value or effort of implementation. Three different scenarios ("City as Role Model", "City as Homo Oeconomicus", "City as Climate Protector") show different municipal perspectives.
The analysis has shown that the greatest benefit for municipalities, regardless of the municipal perspective, is yielded by measures such as voluntarily enhanced minimum standards for new or for energetic retrofitting of public buildings, the procurement of energy-efficient office equipment, the expansion of heat generation from renewable energies and the usage of private capital in participatory projects like "Solar&Save".
What are the best policies and measures to stimulate energy efficiency in buildings? The debate around this is at least as diverse as the markets and concepts for energy efficiency in buildings, and often quite controversial. However, no magic formula seems to have been found so far. It is, therefore, time to address the question in a new way - by combining both theoretical evidence on what policy support markets need, and empirical evidence on which combinations or packages of policies have worked.
In the context of its new four-year project bigEE - "Bridging the Information Gap on Energy Efficiency in Buildings", the Wuppertal Institute is implementing this new approach. The bigEE project aims at developing an international internet-based knowledge platform for energy efficiency in buildings. Hence, it must provide evidence-based information. On the theoretical side, the analysis starts with value chains in the building sector and the barriers but also actor-inherent incentives that the different types of market participants face. This enables to identify, which policies and measures need to be combined to jointly overcome the barriers and strengthen the incentives. On the empirical side, model examples of good practice are collected and compared. The search for these is guided by the results of the theoretical analysis, international expert opinion, and existing databases and platforms. In order to identify what is "good practice", the project uses a newly developed multi-criteria assessment scheme. Finally, the impacts achieved with the model examples, lessons learned, and their transferability will be used to validate the model policy package identified in the theoretical analysis.
The public launch of the bigEE platform is planned for autumn of 2011; eceee Summer Study participants will get a first glance at its content through this paper. The paper presents the methods and tools used and showcases their application for the case of new buildings
The German contribution to limiting global warming to two degrees has to be - as in other developed countries, too - a reduction of 80 to 95 percent of CO2 emissions by 2050 compared to 1990. The project "Low Carbon City Wuppertal 2050" has analysed how such a drastic reduction of CO2 could be achieved on a municipal level in the transportation and residential sector by also working on the land use and material flows dimension. The focus of this paper lies on the space heating in the residential sector.
Wuppertal is a city with about 350,000 inhabitants in the West of Germany. According to the CO2 balance (2007) of the city that was adjusted to the year 2010, the emissions that were caused by space heating in the residential sector remained almost the same since 1990. They decreased slightly from 693,000 tons CO2 in 1990 to 691,000 tons in 2010, although final energy use for space heating increased by about 15 percent. But the shift of energy sources especially from coal to gas avoided an increase of emissions. However, the reduction target of 95 percent means that CO2 emissions have to be reduced to 35,000 tons per year until 2050.
A reference scenario shows that the city could achieve about 30 percent of the reduction required with the current trend of renewable energy development and energy efficiency measures such as retrofitting the building stock. But looking at the difficult financial conditions of the municipality as well as at the socio-economic situation of the inhabitants it becomes clear that the remaining 65 percent of the target to a 95 percent reduction will be difficult to reach and that innovative measures of energy efficiency and sufficiency1 need to be developed.
But which social-ecological effects does the implementation of comprehensive climate protection measures have on the inhabitants of a city? How do people live in a "Low Carbon City"? In this paper qualitative and quantitative scenarios will be developed since the combination of both is promising to show both effects: what share could renewable energies, energy efficiency and sufficiency measures have in reaching the target of 95 percent, and how could life look like in an almost CO2 free city in Germany in 2050.
In 2008, transport accounted for 27% of the world’s total final energy consumption. Currently, we are facing a rapidly expanding transport sector with continually increasing energy consumption. In the future, emerging and developing countries especially will experience an accelerated growth in transport energy demand due to rapid population growth, urbanisation and rising per capita income. The transport sector’s inefficiency and its dependency on oil will become an economic burden for these countries. They will have to face increasing crude oil prices and uncertainties regarding energy security.
Thus, there is a need for an efficient transport system and particularly for decision makers in developing and emerging countries to have access to planning advice in order to identify suitable and effective measures for low-energy urban transport. To meet this demand, existing knowledge and measures about energy efficiency in urban passenger transport was compiled and a structured introduction to energy efficiency in transport is provided.
The main determinates of an energy-efficient transport system are explained and strategic approaches to increase energy efficiency are outlined. Success factors and barriers for energy efficiency policies are described. The main element of the paper is an overview of different energy efficiency policies and measures for the key actors in energy-efficient transport on local and national levels. A set of measures is assigned to each actor identified. The compilation was adapted to the circumstances in developing and emerging countries and includes examples for successful implementation of several measures. Thus, the document satisfies the need for a comprehensive introduction to energy efficiency in urban transport in developing and emerging countries.