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Reliably reducing the emissions in the building sector plays a crucial role if the 1.5°C climate target from the Paris Agreement is to be met. The observed trends show a significant increase in building energy use, especially in emerging economies. Counteracting these trends is absolutely essential, especially in the light of urbanisation, population growth and changing lifestyles. In terms of mitigating the climate impact of buildings, ensuring high levels of efficiency (i.e. very low energy needs, especially for heating and cooling) has the greatest potential for saving energy and emissions, and is at the same time the prerequisite for effective use of energy from renewable sources. Clearly defined targets and suitable metrics are essential to enable appropriate design decisions. Implemented projects clearly indicate that quality assured design and construction lead to reliable in-use energy performance. Effective policy packages to address opportunities and challenges are important drivers to support the uptake of state-of-the-art efficiency measures in the urban building sector.
There is an increasing pressure that enhanced and novel energy technologies are swiftly adopted by the market to ensure meeting the energy and climate targets. An important issue with such novel developments is their risk to be stuck in the "valley of death", i.e. that their transition to the market is delayed or unsuccessful. Publicly supported demonstration projects could help to bridge the valley of death by reducing barriers to the adoption caused by missing information and perceived risks. A challenge for technology demonstrations in the industrial context is their often high investments that are required to prove their real-world benefits. Given the magnitude of such investments, it becomes crucial that public funding focuses on the most promising demonstration proposals. Structured evaluation processes can help to facilitate the identification of promising proposals and to improve the quality and transparency of decisions. This paper deals with a corresponding multi-staged multi-criteria decision support system (DSS) suggested to the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy. It deals with the evaluation of demonstration proposals across three stages: The first stage represents a filtering stage to identify those proposals relevant for further considerations. The second stage comprises a multi-criteria scoring method drawing on an evaluation against nineteen criteria. The final third stage serves to critically review the need for public funding of well-scored proposals. This contribution outlines the development of the DSS and its design and thus provides insights on proposal evaluating in energy research.
Alternative power initiatives are socio-ecological innovations that substantially contribute to city's sustainable development and, therefore, are of particular societal benefit and value. Cities should, consequently, have an inherent interest in their existence and proliferation. This, however, asks for strategic innovation management. While, acknowledgement of the project's innovativeness constitutes the precondition for management, in the further process of steering activity the tasks to reduce hurdles, create open space and support the project's capacities need to be mastered. Thereby, cities are increasingly asked to become innovative themselves in order to find ways to optimally make use of their available tools and capacities.
Although it is not part of what has been called the "ambition mechanism" or "ratchet mechanism", Article 6 of the Paris Agreement also has an explicit requirement to promote ambition. Article 6 specifically highlights that some Parties choose to pursue voluntary cooperation in the implementation of their nationally determined contributions to allow for higher ambition in their mitigation and adaptation actions. Despite the common purpose, the two elements have to date been discussed mostly in isolation, both in the negotiations as well as in the wider literature. This JIKO Policy Paper sets out to change this by exploring the relationship between Article 6 and the Global Stocktake.
An index of accessibility-based vulnerability is created based on a definition of transport-user vulnerability regarding transport accessibility created for the EMPOWER project, in order to assess the project's key performance indicator of the inclusion of vulnerable people in the project's scheme. The objective of the index is to account for various individual vulnerability aspects, but also for the "multi-dimensionality" of vulnerability, i.e. individuals may be vulnerable because of one specific aspect (e.g., disability), or they may be vulnerable because of multiple aspects which, if assessed in isolation, wouldn't classify the individual as vulnerable. Users of the project scheme in the Dutch city of Enschede are surveyed on, inter alia, their vulnerability based on this definition, according to their income, mobility budget, physical mobility, age, gender, living situation, nation of birth, and education. According to individual questions, 1% to 54% (single parents and females, respectively) of respondents have some level of vulnerability. According to the index, 23–36% of respondents can be considered to be vulnerable. Suitably modified for local conditions, the index is relevant to cities, especially quickly developing cities where congestion reduction is or has been a priority, insofar as it offers a way of measuring and monitoring the vulnerability of the users of their transport system. Finally, steps to adapt the index to other settings (cities or countries) are discussed.
Access to clean and affordable modern energy services has been widely recognised as a significant factor for enabling social and economic development. Stand-alone systems and mini-grids are presumed to play an important role in the provision of sustainable energy to those people who currently lack access. Accordingly, an increasing number of small-scale energy projects are being implemented in developing countries and emerging economies. However, despite the large number of energy development projects, only limited evidence exists about the actual contribution they make to sustainable development. This paper addresses this research gap by providing a systematic assessment of three selected impact pathways based on the evaluation of over 30 small-scale sustainable energy projects. Applying a theory-based evaluation approach in the form of a contribution analysis, the aim of this research is to better understand if and how these types of technical interventions can create development outcomes and impacts. The results show that technological issues are often not the most decisive factor in achieving development effects, but that embedding the technology in a set of actions that address social, cultural, economic and environmental aspects is essential.
This governance brief aims to provide practical examples on how investments in urban infrastructure, clean energy, and energy efficiency can be implemented; and how these are embedded in multi-level governance, experimentation, and policy-learning. It draws on examples from the German energy system transition, which can be understood as a large-scale, real-life laboratory for the governance of a sustainability transition of an entire national energy system. The federal state of North-Rhine Westphalia's experience illustrates the complexity of the governance challenge of implementing low-carbon system transitions.
This JIKO Policy Paper explores how Parties using Article 6 can increase their mitigation ambition. Building on a broad definition of ambition raising which puts the intensification of climate change mitigation targets and actions by Parties at its centre, eight different ambition raising options are identified. The analysis shows that these options are associated with different technical, institutional and political challenges, calling for a combination of different ambition raising options.
The objective of this paper is to analyse and make recommendations on a safeguard system for Article 6 that aims at preventing potential harm that mitigation activities may cause on the ground to local stakeholders and the environment. Following some definitory aspects of what and how to safeguard, the paper analyses a number of safeguard systems and do no harm principles as well as tools to implement them. It then gives an overview on Parties' views on the matter, as uttered in their latest submissions on Art. 6 options, as well as an overview of the references in the UNFCCC's SBSTA Chair's text with respect to sustainable development, safeguards, and human rights issues. The paper closes with recommendations on a possible safeguard system for Article 6.
This policy paper reviews the concept of additionality in the context of the Paris Agreement. Additionality is a key criterion that helps to maintain the environmental integrity of the Paris Agreement, especially when units created under Article 6.2 or 6.4 are used for offsetting purposes whether that is by Parties in order to meet their NDCs or whether by other entities with legal mitigation obligations.
It does so by first reviewing key concepts such as offsetting, environmental integrity, and baseline. Subsequently, it explores the context of additionality under the Paris Agreement. More specifically it discusses what should be counted as the baseline for additionality demonstration. The subsequent chapter then highlights the challenges with establishing additionality, that is establishing a causal relationship between a policy intervention and a proposed activity. Finally, the Policy Paper discusses aspects of international governance with respect to additionality.
It is widely recognised that access to sustainable and affordable energy services is a crucial factor in reducing poverty and enhancing development. Accordingly, various positive effects beyond simple access to energy are associated with the implementation of sustainable energy projects. One of these assumed positive outcomes is the productive use of energy, which is expected to create value - for example in the form of increased local availability of goods or higher incomes - thereby having a positive impact on local livelihoods. Many projects and programmes are based on such expectations regarding the productive use of energy but systematic evidence of these outcomes and impacts is still limited. This study analyses the results of an impact evaluation of 30 small-scale energy development projects to better understand whether and how the supply of sustainable energy services supports productive use activities and whether these activities have the expected positive impacts on local livelihoods. A contribution analysis is applied to systematically evaluate the impact pathways for the productive use of energy. The results show that access to sustainable energy does not automatically result in productive activities and that energy is only one of the input factors required to foster socio-economic development. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that activities, materials and information to support the productive use of energy - such as training, equipment or market research - need to be an integrated part of the energy project itself to allow for productive activities to develop on a wider scale.
The long-term transition towards a low-carbon transport sector is a key strategy in Europe. This includes the replacement of fossil fuels, modal shifts towards public transport as well as higher energy efficiency in the transport sector overall. While these energy savings are likely to reduce the direct greenhouse gas emissions of transport, they also require the production of new and different vehicles. This study analyses in detail whether final energy savings in the transport sector also induce savings for material resources from nature if the production of future vehicles is considered. The results for 28 member states in 2030 indicate that energy efficiency in the transport sector leads to lower carbon emissions as well as resource use savings. However, energy-efficient transport sectors can have a significant impact on the demand for metals in Europe. An additional annual demand for 28.4 Mt of metal ores was calculated from the personal transport sector in 2030 alone. The additional metal ores from semiprecious metals (e.g., copper) amount to 12.0 Mt, from precious metals (e.g., gold) to 9.1 Mt and from other metals (e.g., lithium) to 11.7 Mt, with small savings for ferrous metal ores (-4.6 Mt).
The water-energy-food (WEF) nexus is increasingly recognised as a conceptual framework able to support the efficient implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Despite growing attention paid to the WEF nexus, the role that renewable energies can play in addressing trade-offs and realising synergies has received limited attention. Until now, the focus of WEF nexus discussions and applications has mainly been on national or global levels, macro-level drivers, material flows and large infrastructure developments. This overlooks the fact that major nexus challenges are faced at local level. Aiming to address these knowledge gaps, the authors conduct a systematic analysis of the linkages between small-scale energy projects in developing countries and the food and water aspects of development. The analysis is based on empirical data from continuous process and impact evaluations complemented by secondary data and relevant literature. The study provides initial insights into how to identify interconnections and the potential benefits of integrating the nexus pillars into local level projects in the global south. The study identifies the complex links which exist between sustainable energy projects and the food and water sectors and highlights that these needs are currently not systematically integrated into project design or project evaluation. A more systematic approach, integrating the water and food pillars into energy planning at local level in the global south, is recommended to avoid trade-offs and enhance the development outcomes and impacts of energy projects.
The Paris Agreement calls on all nations to pursue efforts to contribute to limiting the global temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, due to limited global, regional and country-specific analysis of highly ambitious GHG mitigation pathways, there is currently a lack of knowledge about the transformational changes needed in the coming decades to reach this target. Through a meta-analysis of mitigation scenarios for Germany, this article aims to contribute to an improved understanding of the changes needed in the energy system of an industrialized country. Differentiation among six key long-term energy system decarbonization strategies is suggested, and an analysis is presented of how these strategies will be pursued until 2050 in selected technologically detailed energy scenarios for Germany. The findings show, that certain strategies, including the widespread use of electricity-derived synthetic fuels in end-use sectors as well as behavioral changes, are typically applied to a greater extent in mitigation scenarios aiming at high GHG emission reductions compared to more moderate mitigation scenarios. The analysis also highlights that the pace of historical changes observed in Germany between 2000 and 2015 is clearly insufficient to adequately contribute to not only the 1.5 °C target, but also the 2 °C long-term global target.
For many years, carbon capture and storage (CCS) has been discussed as a technology that may make a significant contribution to achieving major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. At present, however, only two large-scale power plants capture a total of 2.4 Mt CO2/a. Several reasons are identified for this mismatch between expectations and realised deployment. Applying bibliographic coupling, the research front of CCS, understood to be published peer-reviewed papers, is explored to scrutinise whether the current research is sufficient to meet these problems. The analysis reveals that research is dominated by technical research (69%). Only 31% of papers address non-technical issues, particularly exploring public perception, policy, and regulation, providing a broader view on CCS implementation on the regional or national level, or using assessment frameworks. This shows that the research is advancing and attempting to meet the outlined problems, which are mainly non-technology related. In addition to strengthening this research, the proportion of papers that adopt a holistic approach may be increased in a bid to meet the challenges involved in transforming a complex energy system. It may also be useful to include a broad variety of stakeholders in research so as to provide a more resilient development of CCS deployment strategies.
The Port of Rotterdam is one of the pioneers in the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. It is the largest port in Europe and extends over 40 kilometres to the North Sea coast. Its ambitious goal: the port wants to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from its industrial cluster as well as from freight traffic to a large extent. For the study "Deep Decarbonisation Pathways for Transport and Logistics Related to the Port of Rotterdam" the Wuppertal Institute analysed available options for the maritime as well was hinterland transports on behalf of the Rotterdam Port Authority.
The 2050 scenarios by the Wuppertal Institute show that decarbonisation will significantly change both, volume and structure of the transported goods - which add to the on-going trend from bulk to container transport. This will have considerable structural effects on port operations and in particular on hinterland traffic. A comprehensive decarbonisation (>95 per cent) will require significant efficiency improvements through operational and technical measures and the switch to non-fossil fuels, as well as a strong shift of container transport from road transport to rail and inland navigation. For maritime shipping to and from Rotterdam two feasible pathways towards full decarbonisation by 2050 are presented. Both include a stepwise shift towards renewable electricity based energy carriers for ships (liquids and gaseous for long distances and hydrogen and electricity for shorter distances).
Finally the report derives a set of recommendations for the Port Authority as well as the Dutch, German and European policymakers to support the transition towards a drastic reduction of greenhouse gase (GHG) emissions from in the transport sector and for using this as a strategy for a sustainable economic development.
Many hope that the Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement can become a catalyst for increased mitigation ambition over time. Based on different theories of change, this paper outlines four governance functions for the Global Stocktake. It can contribute to the Paris Agreement as a pacemaker (stimulating and synchronizing policy processes across governance levels), by ensuring accountability of Parties, by enhancing ambition through benchmarks for action and transformative learning, and by reiterating and refining the guidance and signal provided from the Paris Agreement. The paper further outlines process- and information-related preconditions that would enable an ideal Global Stocktake.
Living-Lab-as-a-Service : exploring the market and sustainability offers of living labs in Germany
(2018)
European coal mining regions face massive transformational challenges. The necessity of climate protection only intensifies a trend, prevalent in all of Europe: coal mining has been losing its economic importance over the last decades. Fewer and fewer people are employed in the sector. Coal regions face the challenge of how to facilitate a just transition, and which perspectives to develop for a future beyond coal.
Against this background this study analyses the current situation in four key European coal mining regions, namely: Aragon in Spain, Lusatia in Germany, Silesia in Poland and Western Macedonia in Greece. The study provides a brief summary of the regions' socio-economic structure, including the respective role of coal mining. An assessment of how existing European structural instruments, specifically the European Structural and Investment Funds (the ESI Funds) are utilised in the region, forms the core of the study.
Transition modelling is an emerging but growing niche within the broader field of sustainability transitions research. The objective of this paper is to explore the characteristics of this niche in relation to a range of existing modelling approaches and literatures with which it shares commonalities or from which it could draw. We distil a number of key aspects we think a transitions model should be able to address, from a broadly acknowledged, empirical list of transition characteristics. We review some of the main strands in modelling of socio-technological change with regards to their ability to address these characteristics. These are: Eco-innovation literatures (energy-economy models and Integrated Assessment Models), evolutionary economics, complex systems models, computational social science simulations using agent based models, system dynamics models and socio-ecological systems models. The modelling approaches reviewed can address many of the features that differentiate sustainability transitions from other socio-economic dynamics or innovations. The most problematic features are the representation of qualitatively different system states and of the normative aspects of change. The comparison provides transition researchers with a starting point for their choice of a modelling approach, whose characteristics should correspond to the characteristics of the research question they face. A promising line of research is to develop innovative models of co-evolution of behaviours and technologies towards sustainability, involving change in the structure of the societal and technical systems.
The Ernst Strüngmann Forum seeks to link justice, sustainability, and diversity agendas. In support, this chapter discusses how linkages between these three concepts have formed and changed in the climate change discourse, particularly in light of the recent Paris Agreement. As the latest addition to the portfolio of international climate change agreements, the Paris Agreement establishes a landscape in which nation-states, subnational actors, and transnational networks will be able to reconfigure existing linkages between sustainability, diversity, and justice, and perhaps improve upon them.
Here, three possible developments are identified which may substantially influence the reconfiguration process. Recognition is given to the sustainability and justice deficits that have plagued the "top-down" character of the international climate change discourse, and it is hypothesized that the Paris Agreement opens the door for "bottom-up" movements to claim a larger segment of climate change policy decision making and design. In turn, the "polycentric" landscape created by such "movement from below" appears to emphasize concepts such as inclusivity and transparency perhaps allowing for explicit climate justice commitments. Finally, to advance societal transformation and embrace diversity, it is hypothesized that the scientific endeavor needs to be transformed from a purely analytical pursuit to an effort that makes use of the wide range of scientific competences and provides support for transformative innovations to change unsustainable sociotechnical systems.
Energy and climate change
(2018)
The inclusion of references to human rights in the Paris Agreement was celebrated as a milestone towards greater integration of human rights in environmental and climate governance. Beyond their symbolic value, the significance of these provisions however depends on the extent to which they inform the implementation of the Paris Agreement both at the national and international levels. This article takes stock of the integration of human rights in climate governance and identifies concrete opportunities to ensure that human rights considerations are included in the Paris Implementation Guidelines to be adopted at COP-24, promoting climate action that aligns with Parties' human rights obligations. We first consider the relevance of human rights to climate action and the incremental recognition of these linkages in the international climate regime - both in the lead up to the adoption of the Paris Agreement and since. We then consider in specific terms how human rights could inform five key dimensions of the Paris Agreement's Implementation Guidelines: NDC guidance, adaptation communications, transparency framework, global stocktake, and the article 6 mechanisms. This article will reflect on past experience of how climate policy impacts human rights and on proposals put forward in the context of the negotiations of the implementation guidelines. It concludes with recommendations on a right-based approach to the implementation of the Paris Agreement.
This paper investigates the multimodal nature of urban congestion and network performance, with the aim of developing practice ready policy tools to alleviate the adverse effects of excess demand, no matter in which mode it realizes. As part of the efforts to get an overall understanding of how congestion is defined in various disciplines, we conduct a literature review of relevant engineering and microeconomics studies. The investigation reveals the main areas where contradiction can be identified between engineering and economics approaches. In a second step, we investigate the results of an expert survey about the principles of congestion analysis from a multimodal perspective. The main contribution of the paper is twofold. First, we draw attention to the pitfalls of oversimplified and narrow viewpoints on congestion. Second, we operationalize these principles in order to enable decision makers to assess the impact of urban transport measures on congestion.
Poor households in Germany and those that are close to the poverty line are more likely to suffer from increases in electricity costs. One consequence of this is the increasing number of cases in which the supplier disconnects a household's power. According to the Federal Network Agency (Bundesnetzagentur), a total of almost 359,000 interruptions of the electricity supply were caused in 2015 due to outstanding payments. In order to avoid disconnection from the electricity grid, more and more utility companies have begun to offer prepayment meters (PPMs) to their customers as a response to outstanding payments and a growing number of customers owing debts to their energy supplier. The phenomenon of an increasing number of households affected by energy poverty in Germany is new, and thus the number of PPMs is still low. As a result, experiences in this context are - compared to other countries (e.g. Great Britain) - far from extensive, and political awareness of the problem is low. This paper presents the findings of Germany's first scientific survey on experiences with the use of PPMs.
The German government aims to achieve virtually climate-neutral building stock by 2050 to tackle climate change. To realise this goal, comprehensive policy packages based on neoclassical economic theory are in place to foster energy efficiency investment. However, in the building sector, there is increasingly a gap between this aspiration and the reality. It is claimed that one of the main reasons for this is that the existing policy framework fails to address the specific characteristics and needs of different groups of building owners. This is a particular challenge in Germany, where 80% of all dwellings are owned privately and 37% are rented out by small private landlords (SPL). Despite the significant numbers of SPL, they often follow black box decision-making processes when considering energy renovations. In this study, the author uses an explanatory model to understand the decision-making processes of SPL, combining theoretical aspects from different research disciplines. This model was applied to a low-demand housing market in a neighbourhood in the Ruhr area. Eighteen semi-structured interviews (each lasting between 37 and 115 min) were conducted, demonstrating that in addition to economic factors, the values, beliefs, norms and routines of SPL - as well as their personal capabilities and contextual factors - play an important role in their decision-making. Based on the findings, recommendations are made for enhancing the effectiveness of existing energy efficiency policies and other supporting instruments (e.g. tenancy law and social legislation), tailored to the specific needs of SPL.
There is significant potential for family farming to contribute to several dimensions of the Sustainable Development Goals adopted by the United Nations General Assembly in 2015. Our research aims to provide insights to help strengthen sustainable family farming. We focus on initiatives that have advanced sustainable family farming innovations in Colombia and analyse the factors and dynamics that have led to the limited penetration of those innovations across the country. To that aim, a transformative methodology is applied involving representatives of farmers' associations, supporting organisations and researchers from various disciplinary fields. We analyse the network of initiatives against the conceptual background of sociotechnical niches and identify a stable niche where generic lessons are being systematically identified and used to establish replication projects. However, this niche is still limited in its breadth, which results in a low capacity for expansion and a strong dependency on international donors for reproducing experiences. Specific recommendations are outlined for broadening the type of actors involved in the interpretation and dissemination of lessons from the niche. Moreover, we outline suggestions for further research and conceptualisation in two directions: for exploring effective ways of broadening the niche and translating niche lessons to state policies and for deepening the understanding of interactions between the niche and other levels.
The paper describes patterns of resource use related to German households' equipment. Using cluster analysis and material flow accounting, data on socio-demographic characteristics, and expenditures on fuel, electricity and household equipment allow for a differentiation of seven different household types. The corresponding resource use, expressed in Material Footprint per person and year, is calculated based on cradle-to-gate material flows of average household goods and the related household energy use. Our results show that patterns of resource use are mainly driven by the use of fuel and electricity and the ownership of cars. The quantified Material Footprints correlate to social status and are also linked to city size, age and household size. Affluent, established and/or younger families living in rural areas typically show the highest amounts of durables and expenditures on non-durables, thus exhibiting the highest use of natural resources.
The experience curve theory assumes that technology costs decline as experience of a technology is gained through production and use. This article reviews the literature on the experience curve theory and its empirical evidence in the field of electricity generation technologies. Differences in the characteristics of experience curves found in the literature are systematically presented and the limitations of the experience curve theory, as well as its use in energy models, are discussed. The article finds that for some electricity generation technologies, especially small-scale modular technologies, there has been a remarkably strong (negative) relationship between experience and cost for several decades. Conversely, for other technologies, especially large-scale and highly complex technologies, the experience curve does not appear to be a useful tool for explaining cost changes over time. The literature review suggests that when analysing past cost developments and projecting future cost developments, researchers should be aware that factors other than experience may have significant influence. It may be worthwhile trying to incorporate some of these additional factors into energy system models, although considerable uncertainties remain in quantifying the relevance of some of these factors.
Energy system optimization models (ESOMs) such as MARKAL/TIMES are used to support energy policy analysis worldwide. ESOMs cover the full life-cycle of fuels from extraction to end-use, including the associated direct emissions. Nevertheless, the life-cycle emissions of energy equipment and infrastructure are not modelled explicitly. This prevents analysis of questions relating to the relative importance of emissions associated with the build-up of infrastructure and other equipment required for decarbonization.
Tackling fuel poverty has become an increasingly important issue on many European countries' political agendas. Consequently, national governments, local authorities and NGOs have established policies and programmes to reduce the fuel poverty vulnerability of households. However, evaluations of such policies and programmes show that they barely reach those who are most in need. The reasons for this failure are diverse and include fuel poverty measurement metrics, local scale data availability and policy design. This raises the question of how fuel poor homes can be more effectively identified and targeted to ensure that limited local and national budgets are used to benefit those who most need help.
Area-based approaches, which pinpoint spatial units highly affected by fuel poverty due to their specific characteristics, offer an opportunity for creating more tailored policies and programmes. In this study, the author developed a GIS-MCDA (Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis), using an AHP (Analytical Hierarchy Process) and applied the approach to the German city of Oberhausen. The overall issue of fuel poverty was broken down into three vulnerability dimensions (heating burden, socio-economic and building vulnerability), the relative importance of fuel poverty criteria and the dimensions were evaluated by experts, and an overall Fuel Poverty Index was created to assess the relative fuel poverty vulnerability of 168 urban neighbourhoods.
The analysis offers insights into the spatial pattern of fuel poverty within a city and thus provides an opportunity to channel efforts towards households in those neighbourhoods most in need. It also demonstrates that a trade-off between ecological and social targets should be considered in the development of future policies for tackling fuel poverty.
The study shows that more cyclists and pedestrians can make cities safer. The ranking, compiled by the Wuppertal Institute and funded by Greenpeace, compared 13 metropolises in terms of public transport, road safety, air quality, mobility management, and the proportion of cyclists and pedestrians. The result: Amsterdam and Copenhagen, residents travel about a third of their trips by bicycle, and these cities have the fewest bicycle accidents.
The Port of Rotterdam is an important industrial cluster mainly comprising of oil refining, chemical manufacturing and power and steam generation. In 2015, the area accounted for 18 % of the Netherlands' total CO2 emissions. The Port of Rotterdam Authority is aware that the port's economy is heavily exposed to future global and EU decarbonization policies, as the bulk of its activities focuses on trading, handling, converting and using fossil fuels. Based on a study for the Port Authority, our paper explores possible pathways of how the industrial cluster can keep its strong market position in Europe and still reduce its CO2 emissions by 98 % by 2050. The "Biomass and CCS" scenario assumes that large amounts of biomass can be supplied sustainably and will be used in the port for power generation as well as for feedstock for refineries and the chemical industry. Fischer-Tropsch fuel generation plays an important role in this scenario, allowing the port to become a key cluster for the production of synthetic fuels and feedstocks in Western Europe. The "Closed Carbon Cycle" scenario assumes that renewables-based electricity will be used at the port to supply heat and hydrogen for the synthetic generation of feedstock for the chemical industry. The carbon required for the chemicals will stem from recycled waste. Technologies particularly needed in this scenario are water electrolysis and gasification or pyrolysis to capture carbon from waste, as well as technologies for the production of base chemicals from syngas. The paper compares both scenarios with regard to their respective technological choices and infrastructural changes. The scenarios’ particular opportunities and challenges are also discussed. Using possible future pathways of a major European petrochemical cluster as an example, the paper illustrates options for deep decarbonisation of energy intensive industries in the EU and beyond.
Converting electricity into heat offers the opportunity to make of use large scales of renewable (surplus) energy in the long run in order to reduce shut-downs of renewable power plants and to substitute fossil fuels. Electrification seems to be also very promising for industrial heat applications, as it enables high process temperatures to be achieved in a tailor-made and efficient way and enables the utilisation of other energy sources like waste heat, geothermal or ambient heat (via heat pumps). This article analyses theoretical and technical electrification potentials of Steam Generation and Other Process Heat Generation in the following energy-intensive branches: iron & steel, non-ferrous metal, iron foundries, refineries, base chemicals, glass, cement clinker and paper industry in Germany. Literature research, expert interviews as well as own modelling were conducted to determine potentials and their implementation barriers. Based on these methods, market potential to electrify industrial steam generation was estimated. On the basis of two climate protection scenarios, the effects of both a monovalent and a hybrid industrial power-to-heat strategy were quantified with regard to greenhouse gas reduction and energy efficiency (primary energy saving). The pathway towards electrification will be reflected by criteria such as path dependency, dependency of infrastructure and system compatibility. Recommendations for research and development as well as policies are derived from the overall analysis. The article shows that electrification can be an important option to achieving high CO2-savings in the industrial heating sector in a long-term perspective. However, the scenario calculations show that electrification does not in itself guarantee reduction of greenhouse gases or savings of primary energy. To reach these goals, it is essential to further develop industrial heat pumps and to map electrification and further development of renewable energy (including infrastructure such as power networks and storage facilities) in a concerted strategy.
The German federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) is home to important clusters of energy-intensive basic materials industries. 15% of the EU's primary steel as well as 15% of high-value base chemicals are produced here. Together with refinery fuels, cement, lime and paper production (also overrepresented in NRW) these are the most carbon-intensive production processes of the industrial metabolism. To achieve the ambitious regional and national climate goals without relocating these clusters, carbon-neutral production will have to become standard by mid-century. We develop and evaluate three conceptual long-term scenarios towards carbon-neutral industry systems for NRW for 2050 and beyond:
* a first scenario depending on carbon capture and storage or use for heavy industries (iCCS),
* a second scenario sketching the direct electrification of industrial processes (and transport) and
* a third scenario relying on the import of low carbon energies (e.g. biomass, and synthetic fuels (like methanol) for the use in industries and transport. All scenarios share the assumption that electricity generation will be CO2-neutral by 2050.
For all three scenarios energy efficiency, primary energy demand for energy services and feedstock as well as the carbon balance are quantified. We apply a spatial-explicit analysis of production sites to allow for discussion of infrastructure re-use and net investment needs. Possible symbiotic relations between sectors are also included. The robustness of the three conceptualised future carbon-neutral industry systems is then analysed using a multi-criteria approach, including e.g. energy security issues and lock-ins on the way to 2050.
Climate change induces various risks for supply chains of manufacturing firms. However, surveys have suggested that only a minority of firms conducts strategic adaptations, which we define as anticipatory and target-oriented action with the purpose of increasing resilience to climate change. While several barrier-centered studies have investigated the causality of non-adaptation in industry, the examined barriers are often not problem-specific. Furthermore, it has been shown that even in cases when managers perceive no barriers to adaptation at all, strategic adaptations may still not be conducted. On this background, the present analysis focuses on the logic of adaptive inaction, which we conceive, in particular, as inaction with regard to strategic adaptations. Adopting an action-theoretical perspective, the study examines (a) which aspects may shape the rationality of adaptive inaction among managers, (b) which more condensed challenges of conducting strategic adaptations emerge for managers, and (c) how the theoretical propositions can be tested. For this purpose, the study employs an exploratory approach. Thus, hypotheses on such aspects are explored, which may shape the rationality of adaptive inaction among managers. Subsequently, predictions are inferred from the theoretical propositions, which allow testing their empirical relevance. Methodologically, the hypotheses are explored by reexamining existing explanatory approaches from literature based on a set of pretheoretical assumptions, which include notions of bounded rationality. As a result, the study proposes 13 aspects which may constrain managers in conducting adaptations in such a way, which serves the economic utility of the firm. By condensing these aspects, 4 major challenges for managers are suggested: the challenges of (a) conducting long-term adaptations, of (b) conducting adaptations at an early point in time, of (c) conducting adaptations despite uncertain effects of the measures, and of (d) conducting adaptations despite cross-tier dependencies in supply chains. Finally, the study shows how the propositions can be tested and outlines a research agenda based on the developed theoretical suggestions.
Nutrition is responsible for about 30% of global natural resource use. In order to limit the negative impact the nutritional sector has on the environment and on society, the consumption and processing of foodstuffs with assumed low negative impact is an important topic in the effort of sustainable development. In professional kitchens, clearly defined indicators assessing the impact of business activities are needed in this effort. The research and development in the NAHGAST project provides groundwork that could be of important assistance in this effort. Two versions of an assessment tool, with indicators of different complexity (NAHGAST Meal-Basic and NAHGAST Meal-Pro), were developed that can be used by kitchen professionals to determine the sustainability performance of their products - the offered meal. An informed selection of indicators, and a discussion of what processes and impacts this indicator relates to in the wider context, are essential and are discussed in this paper. Furthermore, in the selection of indicators for the purpose of our research certain criteria were considered simultaneously: (1) Communicability - What information an indicator can communicate and how comprehensible this information is for different actors; (2) Feasibility and data availability - Whether there is sufficient data for an indicator to be included and whether it is realistic for companies to integrate this indicator in their daily work practice; and (3) Scientific relevance - Whether the indicator is relevant for sustainability efforts on a larger scale and for related discussions in the scientific community. Insights related to these considerations are valuable for future developments in sustainability assessment in out-of-home gastronomy. The tool has been used to evaluate a number of dishes and results are deemed meaningful. However, assessments must not be understood as an accurate measurement but as an approximation of the sustainability of meals. At the level of individual indicators, they allow a detailed analysis and targeted optimization of recipes, while the aggregated results in the form of labels can be communicated well to customers. However, deficiencies and challenges, as discovered in the application phase of the project, demonstrate research gaps in the wider context. Finally, further steps for an integration of the tool in company processes and remaining options for companies to adjust the tool are discussed.
In this paper we highlight the importance of structural dimensions of real-world laboratories (RwLs). Giddens' structuration theory provides a promising framework to better understand the interlinked abstract and physical (infra-)structural features of RwLs. We argue that research on and in RwLs needs to be sensitive to the spatial, temporal, and thematic scope of structuration processes. A systematic conceptualization of these dimensions remains an important task for future research. In order to arrive at such a more in-depth understanding and possibly an improvement in the transferability of knowledge created in RwLs, the idea proposed by the WBGU should be taken up: building RwLs for the long term and focusing more explicitly on their structural dimensions. First steps have been taken in the German city of Wuppertal where a RwL infrastructure has been built up over the course of various projects including a broad variety of resources, actors, and topics in the broader search and learning process for sustainable transitioning.
Jointly experimenting for transformation? : Shaping real-world laboratories by comparing them
(2018)
Real-world laboratories (RwLs, German Reallabore) belong to a family of increasingly popular experimental and transdisciplinary research approaches at the science-society interface. As these approaches in general, and RwLs in particular, often lack clear definitions of key characteristics and their operationalization, we make two contributions in this article. First, we identify five core characteristics of RwLs: contribution to transformation, experimental methods, transdisciplinary research mode, scalability and transferability of results, as well as scientific and societal learning and reflexivity. Second, we compare RwLs to similar research approaches according to the five characteristics. In this way, we provide an orientation on experimental and transdisciplinary research for societal transformations, and reveal the contributions of this type of research in supporting societal change. Our findings enable learning across the different approaches and highlight their complementarities, with a particular focus on RwLs.
Labs in the real world : advancing transdisciplinary research and sustainability transformation
(2018)
There is a strong trend towards research in society-based laboratories,
especially in relation to sustainability. Semantic analysis reveals related discourses and emerging lines of inquiry, namely transformative potential, transdisciplinarity and learning. Real-world laboratories are a dynamic example of this research. Contributions of how to deepen and broaden their analysis are presented.
As part of this dissertation, a categorisation of the social costs of electricity supply is suggested. The following three main cost categories are differentiated: plant-level costs, system costs and external costs. Different types of costs are allocated to these categories and are examined and quantified (to the extent possible) for several power generation technologies. The limits of monetizing certain types of costs are also discussed. In a further step, and based on a large number of empirical studies, individual factors that have had a significant influence on the development of plant-level costs in the past, are identified and categorized. Finally, based on an online survey conducted among energy modellers, the dissertation examines to what extent the identified relevant types of costs and cost-influencing factors are taken into account in different types of energy models.
New energy technologies may fail to make the transition to the market once research funding has ended due to a lack of private engagement to conclude their development. Extending public funding to cover such experimental developments could be one way to improve this transition. However, identifying promising research and development (R&D) proposals for this purpose is a difficult task for the following reasons: Close-to-market implementations regularly require substantial resources while public budgets are limited; the allocation of public funds needs to be fair, open, and documented; the evaluation is complex and subject to public sector regulations for public engagement in R&D funding. This calls for a rigorous evaluation process. This paper proposes an operational three-staged decision support system (DSS) to assist decision-makers in public funding institutions in the ex-ante evaluation of R&D proposals for large-scale close-to-market projects in energy research. The system was developed based on a review of literature and related approaches from practice combined with a series of workshops with practitioners from German public funding institutions. The results confirm that the decision-making process is a complex one that is not limited to simply scoring R&D proposals. Decision-makers also have to deal with various additional issues such as determining the state of technological development, verifying market failures or considering existing funding portfolios. The DSS that is suggested in this paper is unique in the sense that it goes beyond mere multi-criteria aggregation procedures and addresses these issues as well to help guide decision-makers in public institutions through the evaluation process.
In this perspective article, we undertake a brief empirical analysis of the dominant narratives in debates around India's energy future. India has ambitious goals for increasing renewable energy and enabling universal energy access, but there is little social consensus on how these goals should be achieved. We find two compelling narratives in energy policy debates in the country: "energy for development" that privileges energy as critical to economic growth and long term strategic security; and "energy for all" that prioritises the role of energy for basic development and ending poverty. We find that while these narratives find common ground on certain issues such as the role of coal, they clash in the socio-technical imaginaries they represent about India’s energy future. Indian energy policy has been characterised so far by top down, centralised policymaking. With this article, we highlight the societal choices that are inherent in discussions about transformations in India's electricity sector and call for further research on the socio-cultural dimensions of future energy pathways in India.
Combined heat and power (CHP) production in buildings is one of the mitigation options available for achieving a considerable decrease in GHG emissions. Micro-CHP (mCHP) fuel cells are capable of cogenerating electricity and heat very efficiently on a decentralised basis. Although they offer clear environmental benefits and have the potential to create a systemic change in energy provision, the diffusion of mCHP fuel cells is rather slow. There are numerous potential drivers for the successful diffusion of fuel cell cogeneration units, but key economic actors are often unaware of them. This paper presents the results of a comprehensive analysis of barriers, drivers and business opportunities surrounding micro-CHP fuel-cell units (up to 5 kWel) in the German building market. Business opportunities have been identified based not only on quantitative data for drivers and barriers, but also on discussions with relevant stakeholders such as housing associations, which are key institutional demand-side actors. These business opportunities include fuel cell contracting as well as the development of a large lighthouse project to demonstrate the climate-neutral, efficient use of fuel cells in the residential building sector. The next step could involve the examination and development of more detailed options and business models. The approach and methods used in the survey may be applied on a larger scale and in other sectors.