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The discrepancy between ecologically conscious attitudes and actual behaviour is described as an inner resistance, and as connected with a propensity to ignore the external costs of wealth. Evidence is presented that this propensity is based on pro-material traits such as the positional attitude and the passion for goods. These traits are traced back to control orientation, whereas ecological responsibility is shown to be related to autonomy orientation. The societal origins of these basic orientations, and hence the conditions of reinforcing post-materially and ecologically minded behaviour, are discussed.
The Federal Republic of Germany committed itself in June 1990 to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions by 25% of the 1987 level by the year 2005, as a measure of slowing down the increase in the greenhouse effect. The issue of a human-caused climate change, however, did not surface in Germany for the first time just a few years ago. The potential threat was recognized a half a century ago. This article traces the history of the German climate change debate in the last 50 yr and discusses the forces and events that shaped it. The way in which various societal actors - among them scientists, the government, industry, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and the media - entered into and influenced the debate is also examined. Unfolding the history of the global warming debate in Germany reveals how the country's current policy stance evolved.
Sustainable economy
(1994)
This paper claims that countries of the North must develop a new model of wealth - one less harmful to the environment and capable of being applied throughout the world. There are reasons to be hopeful they will do so: first, they have the means at their disposal; second, it is a misconception that environmental protection is a cost; and third, there is mounting pressure for change as indicated by air, water and soil quality data. The challenge is to move the emphasis away from end-of-the-pipe pollution control to improving resource productivity. The best way of doing this is through the imposition of "green taxes" to raise resource prices. If governments compensate by cutting other taxes to make the change revenue-neutral, there would be real benefits to the environment and the economy, particularly in developing countries.
Sustainable development, as it emerged in Agenda 21 from the Rio conference in 1992, will only be meaningful when it touches the lives of ordinary people; then it becomes a reality. Local Agenda 21 (LA21) seeks to achieve that objective. This article assesses the origins of LA21, reviews its social and political significance, and considers its prospects in the light of case study experience emerging from the UK, Germany and Norway, focusing on the role of local government as a major stakeholder in Agenda 21 (A21). The range of response to LA21 has proved to be varied. A successful transformation to a more sustainable world will require visionary political leadership, supportive administrations, networks of experience sharing, alliances with non‐governmental organisations and local industry, and effective community mobilisation. All of that, in turn, requires equally supportive economic and social policy backing from national governments. This article will indicate that, not surprisingly, it is the domestic political context, nationally and locally, which in the main determines the speed and nature of response to LA21, now and in the future. By understanding and being aware of these contexts, factors impeding progress towards LA21 may be addressed, whilst at the same time retaining the diversity of response which is an essential part of local sustainability.
In the discourse about sustainable development, "constant natural capital" is frequently referred to as a criterion for ecological sustainability. But what is "natural capital"? The concept will be analyzed by presenting arguments in favour of using the term and different versions of sustainability (strong and weak). Subsequently, a critique of the "natural capital" concept is brought forward, from an ecological as well as from an economic perspective. Following this critique, the use of material inputs and the material input per unit of service (MIPS) as a measure for the environmental impact potential is suggested. Dematerialisation is understood to be an alternative management rule for sustainability. In conclusion, a change of perspective is proposed. Due to the conceptual and measurement problems associated with the "constant-natural-capital" criterion (which refers to a stock), it seems more reasonable from a scientific as well as from a practical perspective to add flows (i.e. material inputs) to a decision criterion for whether a development is sustainable or not.
This paper compares the one-sector neoclassical (Solow) growth model with a neo-Austrian growth model. The solutions of the neoclassical growth model in terms of the golden rule of accumulation and the Ramsey rule are well known, and these conditions are compared with the outcomes of the neo-Austrian growth model, which we derive using a basic three-process model.
The issue or concept of "sustainable development" entered onto the public and political agenda only relatively recently, and, five years after signing Agenda 21, perceptions of it are still ambiguous. A review of organisational adjustments and of German communications to the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development shows that the German government's level of commitment to Agenda 21 is still low. This view is supported by an assessment of developments, and the Government's poor performance so far, in three institutional indicators. However, there is evidence that some incremental steps towards a sustainability transition are being taken as in some areas of business and industry and local government attitudes are begining to change. In addition, awareness of sustainable development is being raised by the efforts of non‐governmental organisations and the scientific community. Generally though, the lack of institutional reorganisation is the major obstacle to a German sustainability transition. This is an expression of the generally low priority of environmental and global development issues in the aftermath of German unification and the related economic and social problems. The traditional economic paradigm where economic growth is believed to be the precondition for welfare prevails and is considered by a majority of decision‐makers not to be compatible with the sustainability transition.
Global climate
(1997)
Five years after the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, the hesitancy of developed countries is turning out to be the main impediment to implementing an effective policy for sustainable development. Alongside the further development of international environmental regimes, setting up national action plans is necessary to close the action-gap in the North. However, this can only succeed if the action plans include binding objectives that can be monitored and evaluated. Current national strategies for sustainable development only meet this criterion in exceptional cases; in most cases only qualitatively and legally nonbinding objectives are included. In the present paper, a suggestion for a cluster of environmental policy targets is put forth, which - using Germany as an example - establishes the sustainability concept at the national level. Particular emphasis is placed on the normative dimension of target setting.
Global climate
(1998)
This report will first provide a brief account of the political developments that led to the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol. Second, it will provide a preliminary analysis of the Kyoto Protocol itself, and, third, it will assess the prospects for the further development of international climate policy and law in 1998 and beyond. Developments outside of the Kyoto negotiations will be included to further elucidate the actual international negotiations.
The European Commission has established the Eco Management and Auditing Scheme (EMAS) to promote and institutionalize corporate environmental management and environmental audits. This article summarizes a study primarily concerned with the execution of an ecoaudit in a medium-sized furniture enterprise according to the rules of EMAS. Material flow accounting was used to assess and analyze the "gate-to-gate" and "cradle-to-grave" environmental impacts related to the firm's products and activities. A resource management strategy was developed that permits the determination of methods for firm-specific material flow management, product management, and ecological product design to improve environmental performance as seen from the vantage point of resource efficiency.
Differences in climate change policy in Germany and the U.S. from a political science perspective
(1998)
International and national climate change policies may either mutually support or block each other. The international political debate can on the one hand be a driving force, mainly because of its "agenda-setting" power for the national political debate, but on the other hand the outcome of international climate change policy depends on the capability of national governments to formulate adequate political goals and programs, and to have the power for their realisation and implementation in the national political process.
The following analysis will focus on the differences in climate change policy in Gerrnany and the United States. From a po1itical science perspective, it has to deal with the determinants and restrictions of the policy-making processes and their impact on policy formulation and implementation in both countries. Two kinds of determinants will be considered: structural "internal" determinants deriving from the specific setting and mode of operation of the political-administrative systems, and external determinants, such as public opinion, the role of the media. interest groups, and cultural values, which favour or restrict the process of a pro-active climate change policy.
"Joint Implementation" (JI) is considered by many participants in the international negotiations on aclimate protocol to be an important economic instrument for the implementation of greenhouse gas obligations. Apart from a wide range of problems that still have to be resolved on the project level, the institutional and procedural design of such a mechanism is of vital importance. Because JI has a "perverse incentive" to overstate results achieved by individual projects, careful reporting, monitoring and verification procedures are essential. Furthermore, the institutional structure must reconcile the sometimes conflicting demands of overall effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. This paper explores the possible design of a future international mechanism for JI and makes recommendations with regard to the institutional and procedural requirements.
Since the early 1980s, there has been a lively discussion about the rhetoric of economics. Ecological economists, however, so far have not tried to incorporate this discussion into their work. This paper is a first step towards including the discourse on rhetoric into the self-awareness of ecological economics. After a brief outline of what this discourse is about, the importance of metaphors as one aspect of rhetoric is examined. Connections of the rhetorical discourse to ecological economics as a post-normal science are shown. It is argued that two rhetorics of ecological economics can be distinguished: internal and external rhetoric. While the former refers mostly to methodological issues, the latter is of particular importance for the political impact that ecological economics can have. Finally, some suggestions for research are made.
Statisticians avoid getting involved in data analysis, leaving data users on their own in interpreting the results of their work. This is particularly unfortunate in a new area of applied statistics such as environmental accounting with which few are really familiar. Earlier this year data producers and users explored, in a national seminar, possible policy applications of the results of a "green accounting" project in the Philippines. The main findings of the author's contribution to the seminar, on which the present paper is based, are that environmental accounts: (1) present evidence of sustainable economic performance in the country during the relatively short-time period of 1988–1994; (2) provide information for environmental cost internalization; (3) may guide investment to environmentally sound production processes; (4) help to specify and monitor policies of natural wealth conservation, distribution and management; and (5) reveal major data gaps. The paper concludes that environmental accounts help to assess the sustainability of economic growth in terms of broadly defined capital maintenance. The sustainability of development, however, would have to be measured by alternative or supplementary physical indicators linked to quantifiable standards or targets.
Global climate
(1999)
The discussion of sustainable development focused attention on new environmental goals and raised the issue of improving resource productivity. A first step towards sustainability would be to slow-down and reduce the man-induced movements of materials: this is the focus of dematerialization approach which emphasizes what socialist countries used to neglect most – minimizing the use of scarce input factors. This paper applies the dematerialization approach to the discussion on sustainable development in central and eastern Europe. In the early 1990s all countries in eastern Europe have developed new environmental programs which mainly focus on reducing pollution. Environmental strategies focusing on reducing emissions are important but not sufficient for reaching sustainability. A new orientation in the environmental policy in the young market economies is required. Dematerialization approach can be a new option for environmental policy in central and eastern Europe. Dematerialization requires a mix of instruments. Important role can be played by an ecological fiscal reform which covers ecological tax reform and the restructuring of subsidies.
It is not the scarcity of resources that constitutes environmental problems, but their use, the physical throughput of our economies. Material flows are a proxy for the totality of the unspecific environmental risks from human activities. As a strategic goal, an increase of the life-cycle-wide resource productivity by a factor 10 is suggested, including the materials bought and sold and the not-valued materials: we have to take into account the product itself and its "ecological rucksack". Material flows are best measured at the input side of the economy, where their number as well as the number of entry gates is limited. Thus here regulation and economic incentives can work more efficiently and less bureaucratically than today. The material intensity of products and services can be expressed as MIPS, the material input per unit of service, and as TMR, the total material requirement on the macro level, an important element in physical input–output tables.
Dematerialization, MIPS and factor 10 : physical sustainability indicators as a social device
(1999)
Sustainable development is the globally embraced paradigm for integrating environment and development policies. Agreement ends with attempts at quantifying the elusive notion of sustainability. A contentious debate among "environmentalists" and "environmental economists" has brought about a confusing proliferation of indicators and policy advice on sustainable development. Generating a common language by means of integrated physical and monetary environmental accounting could moderate the debate. Economic and ecological sustainability is thus distinguished and operationalised in terms of capital maintenance and dematerialisation of economic activity. Empirical results presented are not conclusive, however. Moreover, the reconciliation of environmental and economic policies requires more than comparable statistics strategies and instruments of environmental cost internalisation need to be evaluated and combined with those of raising resource productivity. A social compact between government and civil society should provide the necessary support for achieving consensus and partnership. The sustained implementation of sustainable development depends on it.
Sustainability as defined by the Brundtland Commission, is a composite and thus ambitious policy target. It comprises environmental, economic, social, and institutional criteria with equal importance. Because of this complexity the first step of a (Local) Agenda 21 process should be to develop a vision of a sustainable society - a "leitbild" - useful as a compass, not a road map (or, even worse, a blueprint), attached by indicators that help to measure progress, distance to target, and failures of plans or their implementations. In the following article a model is proposed how local sustainability indicators can be developed and how they can help to reduce the complexity of sustainability and to concretize a program for the Local Agenda 21. To get a practical impression of the theoretical presentation an example is given in the last part of the article. It shows the experiences made while developing sustainability indicators in the City of Iserlohn.
The contribution of natural resources and ecosystems to economic processes still remains under-assessed by market evaluation and productivity analysis. Following the historical lines of the classical productivity debate ranging from the French Physiocrats to early neoclassical growth theories, the productivity concept underwent a gradual transformation from its previous understanding based on natural resources and other environmental factors to its contemporary narrow notion. This paper claims that the course of the classical debate has shaped the scope of predominant contemporary analysis. Except for some very recent findings, multifactor productivity largely focusses on a two-factor model. Material Flow Analysis (MFA) provides a useful step for widening the measurement and notion of productivity.
Strategic Environmental Assessment aims to incorporate environmental and sustainability considerations into strategic decision making processes, such as the formulation of policies, plans and programmes. In order to be effective, the assessment must take the real decision making process as the departure point. Existing SEA approaches are frequently tailored after an EIA model conceived from a rational perspective on decision making. However, there are good reasons to assume that most strategic decision making processes are characterised by a bounded rationality. Furthermore, the predictability of environmental consequences generally becomes weaker at strategic levels than at the project level and complexity increases in terms of the numbers of actors involved in the decision. This paper examines various theoretical perspectives to decision making and discusses the implications for decision support in general and SEA in particular. The authors argue that the design of the SEA must be more sensitive to the real characteristics of the decision making context.
International climate policy is one of the most fascinating issues in foreign policy, yet in recent years it has become one of the most contentious. The failure of the conference in The Hague revealed, among other things, strongunderlying rifts in the transatlantic relationship. As the self-acclaimed worldleader, the United States is not in a position to exert leadership in this vital area owing to a mixture of constitutional constraints and an ever-growing cultural dependence on fossil fuels such as oil and gas. It therefore falls to the European Union to take up this challenge. This will require careful coalition building with the rest of the world as well as confidence in the ability of Europe to develop a united position, to stick to that position and to translate the rules of the Kyoto Protocol into stringent domestic climate policy. The climate change regime is at a crossroads. At the resumed COP-6 con-ference, the Parties must decide whether to continue the process under theassumption ‘that global problems require global solutions’ or whether to turn to the more regional concept of "think globally, act locally". In either case, steering climate policy in this century on to a successful path will require the skills and dedication not only of natural scientists and technology developers, but also of those in the foreign policy community.
The paper examines the "Declaration of German Industry on Global Warming Prevention (DGWP)" in its updated version of 1996. The analysis draws on the findings of empirical case studies in the cement and glass sector as well as on a general analysis of the policy process including monitoring experience so far. The findings emphasise the weak impact of the agreement on the most important driving forces for industrial energy consumption. However, an improved design and a more stringent procedural framework would allow better advantage to be taken of the particular strengths of the approach. The paper concludes by making a number of recommendations that would improve the scope and quality of commitments, and would enhance learning effects during the course of the policy process.
This article provides a short account of the international climate negotiations that took place in Bonn from 16 to 27 July 2001. After the Sixth Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change failed in November 2000, the Parties had decided to suspend the meeting. The ministers present at the resumed session successfully adopted the "Bonn Agreement to the Kyoto Protocol", a set of political compromises for the most contentious issues left open by the Kyoto Protocol. Although many details had been transferred to the Seventh Conference of the Parties, November 2001 in Marrakesh, Morocco, the Bonn Agreement already paved the way for ratification of the Kyoto Protocol and its entry into force. The Marrakesh Accord adopted on 10 November 2001 transforms, with a few exceptions, this political agreement into bindinglegal text.
The objective of this paper is to identify those areas of consumption in which private households can make significant contributions to environmental sustainability, and to present a transparent and comprehensive set of indicators for them. The analysis of the environmental impacts of households focuses on consumption clusters that allow different life spheres of private households to be distinguished. Two criteria guided the investigation of the relevance of these clusters: (i) the environmental significance of the consumption cluster in terms of resource consumption, and (ii) the potential influence of households compared with other actors. Resource consumption was chosen as a simplified but reliable representation of environmental pressure dynamics. Growing resource consumption goes together with growing environmental pressures and vice versa, although not necessarily proportionally. The key resources analysed are energy and material consumption, and land use. Based on this analysis, three consumption clusters were identified as priority fields for action by households: construction and housing, food/nutrition and transport (in this order). All other consumption clusters can be considered environmentally marginal, providing combined saving potentials of less than 10% of the total resource consumption. Finally, from a description of the respective roles of actors based on anecdotal evidence, a semi-quantitative "actor matrix" is presented, indicating the relative influence of different actors in each consumption cluster.
Unsustainable consumption patterns of the North (or rather of the global affluent consumers class) have been identified by Agenda 21 as one of the key driving forces behind the unsustainable development. However, neither accounting based on the system of national accounts SNA nor household economics provide the proper instruments to assess the environmental impact of household decision making. Eco-efficiency assessments as familiar in the business sector provide no appropriate tool for households. As an alternative an environmental space based assessment scheme is suggested covering the major pressures on the environment caused by household decisions. The methodology is used twice: once to analyse the environmental relevance of the main activity clusters of household consumption and once to identify the dominant acts of consumption within each cluster. The latter provide the basis for deriving environmental performance indicators. A rough analysis of household influence potentials permits to identify housing, eating and mobility as the three priority fields for action for minimising the environmental impact of households. Extending the influence analysis actor matrixes are derived allocating influence and thus responsibility for environmental pressures to different groups of economic agents.
The paper summarises the findings and the work carried out within the Voluntary Agreements - Implementation and Efficiency project and examines five agreement schemes in the field of industrial energy efficiency in the Netherlands, Denmark, Germany, France and Sweden. It provides a brief characterisation of the different approaches and discusses the related implementation effort and transaction costs. An assessment of performance and environmental effectiveness is given, followed by a discussion of the transferability of voluntary agreements among countries and to the European level.
The paper sketches out a theoretical framework for analysing the interplay between eco-efficiency, cognition and institutions. It derives from analytical shortfalls of the prevailing literature, which features strongly engineering and business economics, by using insights from New Institutional Economics, from Cognitive Science and, partly, from Evolutionary Economics. It emphasises the role cognition and institutions play in the adoption of "green" technologies by firms. A cognitive perspective derives from recent research on simple heuristics and context-based rationality; it is proposed that those findings can serve to analyse decision-making of individual actors respectively firms and, thus, should complement economic analysis. A second proposition is that eco-efficiency and normative rules such as a Factor Four strongly rely upon institutions, i.e. the ability of institutions to evolve over time and the development of those institutions that are most appropriate to enhance technological change. In this regard, business institutions and competition are crucial, but regulatory needs remain in order to safeguard continuity of knowledge creation. The framework allows for an analysis why overall adoption of eco-efficiency still can be considered relatively slow and why some markets and firms are far ahead. As a brief case study the article reflects upon German waste law's ability to enhance eco-efficiency.
Rationale for and interpretation of economy-wide materials flow analysis and derived indicators
(2003)
Economy-wide material flow analysis (MFA) and derived indicators have been developed to monitor and assess the metabolic performance of economies, that is, with respect to the internal economic flows and the exchange of materials with the environment and with other economies. Indicators such as direct material input (DMI) and direct material consumption (DMC) measure material use related to either production or consumption. Domestic hidden flows (HF) account for unused domestic extraction, and foreign HF represent the upstream primary resource requirements of the imports. DMI and domestic and foreign HF account for the total material requirement (TMR) of an economy. Subtracting the exports and their HF provides the total material consumption (TMC). DMI and TMR are used to measure the (de-) coupling of resource use and economic growth, providing the basis for resource efficiency indicators. Accounting for TMR allows detection of shifts from domestic to foreign resource requirements. Net addition to stock (NAS) measures the physical growth of an economy. It indicates the distance from flow equilibrium of inputs and outputs that may be regarded as a necessary condition of a sustainable mature metabolism. We discuss the extent to which MFA-based indicators can also be used to assess the environmental performance. For that purpose we consider different impacts of material flows, and different scales and perspectives of the analysis, and distinguish between turnover-based indicators of generic environmental pressure and impact-based indicators of specific environmental pressure. Indicators such as TMR and TMC are regarded as generic pressure indicators that may not be used to indicate specific environmental impacts. The TMR of industrial countries is discussed with respect to the question of whether volume and composition may be regarded as unsustainable.
The reductionist trend of equating sustainable development with sustained economic growth needs to be reversed. New accounts and balances help to operationalize the elusive notion of sustainability: they provide a coherent picture of the interaction between environment and economy. "Greened" national accounts measure economic sustainability in terms of (produced and natural) capital maintenance; balances of material flows assess ecological sustainability as the dematerialization of production and consumption. Both concepts aim to preserve environmental assets, but differ in scope, strength and evaluation of sustainability. First results for Germany indicate weak sustainability of the economy; strong sustainability is not in sight because of insufficient reduction of material throughput. Attaining sustainability through integrated policies needs the support of share- and stakeholders of sustainable development.
This article proposes a policy framework for analysing corporate governance toward sustainable development. The aim is to set up a framework for analysing market evolution toward sustainability. In the first section, the paper briefly refers to recent theories about both market and government failures that express scepticism about the way that framework conditions for market actors are set. For this reason, multi-layered governance structures seem advantageous if new solutions are to be developed in policy areas concerned with long-term change and stepwise internalisation of externalities. The paper introduces the principle of regulated self-regulation. With regard to corporate actors| interests, it presents recent insights from theories about the knowledge-based firm, where the creation of new knowledge is based on the absorption of societal views. The result is greater scope for the endogenous internalisation of externalities, which leads to a variety of new and different corporate strategies. Because governance has to set incentives for quite a diverse set of actors in their daily operations, the paper finally discusses innovation-inducing regulation. In both areas, regulated self-regulation and innovation-inducing regulation, corporate and political governance co-evolve. The paper concludes that these co-evolutionary mechanisms may assume some of the stabilising and orientating functions previously exercised by framing activities of the state. In such a view, the government's main function is to facilitate learning processes, thus departing from the state's function as known from welfare economics.
Environment and human rights
(2004)
Wolfgang Sachs argues for environmental human rights as a fundamental prerequisite to end the violence of development. He outlines the numerous conflicts over natural resources in the struggle for livelihoods and argues for a transition to sustainability in the more affluent economies, in both the North and South, as a necessary condition for the safeguarding of the subsistence rights of those whose livelihood depends on direct access to nature.
In February 2000, the German Bundestag established a Study Commission on "Sustainable Energy Supplies in View of Globalisation and Liberalisation" (cf. Final Report, 2002). The Commission's Final Report is a contribution made by Germany toward implementing the sustainable development objectives defined in 1992 at the World Summit in Rio de Janeiro (Agenda 21). Despite minority votes of several members of the Study Commission, the main outcomes of the Final Report are worthwhile discussing in other industrial countries. The Commission had been given the mandate to identify "robust, sustainable development paths" for the energy sector for the period up to 2050, which represent a scientific basis for the German parliament's further decision-making in the field of long-term energy policy. The applied backcasting approach showed that an ambitious climate-protection goal - reducing CO2 emissions by 80% by 2050 - is technically and economically feasible. The main strategies and instruments for protecting the climate while ensuring asustainable energy supply are summarised.
Global climate
(2004)
The objective of analytical strategic environmental assessment (ANSEA) is to provide a decision-centred approach to the SEA process. The ANSEA project evolved from the realisation that, in many cases, SEA, as currently practised, is not able to ensure an appropriate integration of environmental values. The focus of SEA is on predicting impacts, but the tool takes no account of the decision-making processes it is trying to influence. At strategic decision-making levels, in turn, it is often difficult to predict impacts with the necessary exactitude. The decision-making sciences could teach some valuable lessons here. Instead of focusing on the quantitative prediction of environmental consequences, the ANSEA approach concentrates on the integration of environmental objectives into decision-making processes. Thus, the ANSEA approach provides a framework for analysing and assessing the decision-making processes of policies, plans and programmes (PPP). To enhance environmental integration into the decision-making process, decision windows (DW) can be identified. The approach is designed to be objective and transparent to ensure that environmental considerations are taken into account, or - from an ex-post perspective - to allow an evaluation of how far environmental considerations have been integrated into the decision-making process under assessment. The paper describes the concepts and the framework of the ANSEA approach and discusses its relation to SEA and the EC Directive.
Resource flows constitute the materials basis of the economy. At the same time, they carry and induce an environmental burden associated with resource extraction and the subsequent material flows and stocks, which finally end up as waste and emissions. A reduction of this material throughput and the related impacts would require a reduction of resource inputs. And breaking the link between resource consumption and economicgrowth would require an increase in resource productivity. Material flow analysis (MFA) can be used to quantify resource flows and indicate resource productivity. In this article, we study the available empirical evidence on the actual (de-)linkage of material resource use and economic growth. We compare resource use with respect to total material requirement (TMR) and direct material input (DMI) for 11 and 26 countries, respectively, and the European Union (EU-15). The dynamics of TMR, as well as of the main components are analysed in relation to economic growth in order to show whether there is a decoupling (relative or absolute) from GDP and a change of the metabolic structure in the course of economicdevelopment. DMI/cap so far only decoupled from GDP/cap in relative terms; that is, in most countries, it reached a rather constant level but - with the exception of Czech Republic - showed no absolute decline yet. TMR/cap was reduced in two high-income countries and one low-income country due to political influence. Changes in TMR were more influenced by hidden flows (HF) than by DMI. We analyse the dynamics of the structure and composition of TMR in the course of economic development. In general, the economic development of industrial countries was accompanied by a shift from domestic to foreign resource extraction. Different relations can be discovered for the share of biomass, fossil fuel resources, construction resources and metals and industrial minerals.
The development of this paper was inspired by the increase in the number of different eco-label like quality assurance schemes established in the European Union in the past few years. These schemes are flooding the market and the researchers raise the question, is there enough credibility in these schemes? This piece of research is based on 58 eco-labeling like food schemes and dissects them into the building blocks of the different factors that makes a scheme credible and analyses the structure of these blocks as well as a literature survey on the perceptions of both the consumers and producers to these schemes. The sort of credibility structure that the building blocks of the schemes (ownership, stakeholder dialogue, traceability, transparency, etc.) have created was discussed and it was questioned if they meet the expectations of the consumers. The main findings of the research indicate that although small groups of consumers may be satisfied with a number of the different schemes, the majority of them fall short of providing a credible quality assurance scheme. Improvements were suggested such as involving a more diverse range of stakeholders and expanding the responsibility of processors and retailers. An alternative to the current form of labeling is also discussed.
New energy efficiency policies have been introduced around the world. Historically, most energy models were reasonably equipped to assess the impact of classical policies, such as a subsidy or change in taxation. However, these tools are often insufficient to assess the impact of alternative policy instruments. We evaluate the so-called engineering economic models used to assess future industrial energy use. Engineering economic models include the level of detail commonly needed to model the new types of policies considered. We explore approaches to improve the realism and policy relevance of engineering economic modeling frameworks. We also explore solutions to strengthen the policy usefulness of engineering economic analysis that can be built from a framework of multidisciplinary cooperation. The review discusses the main modeling approaches currently used and evaluates the weaknesses in current models. We focus on the needs to further improve the models. We identify research priorities for the modeling framework, technology representation in models, policy evaluation, and modeling of decision-making behavior.
Global climate
(2005)
The first Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (MOP 1) took place from 28 November to 10 December 2005 in Montreal, in conjunction with the eleventh meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 11). This meeting signifies a successful start into a new era of international climate policy: The Kyoto Protocol, which in the past had been sometimes declared as being dead, has become operational.
The challenges of the meeting were framed along the "Three Is", Implementation, Improvement and Innovation. The first challenge (Implementation) entailed in particular the adoption of the Marrakesh Accords, the agreements reached at COP 7 in Marrakesh that set out the detailed rules for making the Kyoto Protocol operational. The second challenge (Improvement) referred to improving the work of the Framework Convention and the Kyoto Protocol in the near future. The third and most important challenge (Innovation) referred to the further evolution of the regime.
This article by Bettina Wittneben, Wolfgang Sterk, Hermann E. Ott und Bernd Brouns provides an account of the main developments in Montreal along the lines of the "Three Is". The paper concludes with an assessment and outlook on international climate policy.
Using natural gas for fuel releases less carbon dioxide per unit of energy produced than burning oil or coal, but its production and transport are accompanied by emissions of methane, which is a much more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide in the short term. This calls into question whether climate forcing could be reduced by switching from coal and oil to natural gas. We have made measurements in Russia along the world's largest gas-transport system and find that methane leakage is in the region of 1.4%, which is considerably less than expected and comparable to that from systems in the United States. Our calculations indicate that using natural gas in preference to other fossil fuels could be useful in the short term for mitigating climate change.
Based on different current long-term energy scenarios the paper discusses the future perspectives of hydrogen in the German energy system as a representative example for the development of sustainable energy systems. The scenario analysis offers varying outlines of the future energy system that determine the possible role of hydrogen. The paper discusses the possibilities of expanding the share of renewable energy and the resulting prospects for establishing clean hydrogen production from renewable energy sources. Emphasis is given to the questions of an ecologically efficient allocation of limited renewable energy resources that can only be assessed from asystems analysis perspective. Findings from recent studies for Germany reveal a strong competition between the direct input into the electricity system and an indirect use as fuel in the transport sector. Moreover, the analysis underlines the paramount importance of reducing energy demand as the inevitable prerequisite for any renewable energy system.
Within one decade a fundamental choice will have to be made: Should the energy system follow the historical trends of risky and unsustainable energy use patterns? Or should it take the course towards sustainable development and climate protection, giving top priority to energy efficiency and to a broad mix of renewable energies? Both roads are technically feasible. "Back-casting"-scenarios could help to answer the question, what technological options are available for climate protection and how societal goals can be achieved in a cost-effective way. Lessons learned from world energy scenarios and possible implementation options will be discussed. A case study of the German Parliament ́s Enquete Commission on Sustainable Energy Systems will be taken as illustration. The analysis shows that sustainable energy systems can be financed and that economic growth can be decoupled from absolute levels of non-renewable energy consumption by stepping up energy productivity.
Holiday travel behavior, individual characteristics of holiday travelers and strategies to change holiday travel behavior are the subjects of this article. From the environmental perspective, the journey to the destinations is the most critical aspect of traveling. Based on a 2003 survey of 1991 German inhabitants, the kilometers traveled and the choice of transportation mode for holiday purposes have been quantified. According to the number of trips and kilometers traveled, four travel groups have been identified. The groups vary according to socio-demographics, psychological factors, number of holiday trips, and travel mode choice. Persons who traveled to more distant destinations also traveled more often and used air travel for more than 60% of their trips. For the other groups, car travel was more important. Correlating the four travel groups with greenhouse gas emissions reveals that the smallest group - the long-haul travelers - was responsible for 80% of the emissions of the whole sample. Income, education, and openness to change were main indicators of individual greenhouse gas emissions. Target group oriented strategies to reduce the environmental impact of holiday mobility are discussed against the background of 84 in-depth interviews conducted with selected representatives of the first survey.
Combining environmental with employment objectives, ecological tax reform (ETR) envisages a double dividend. While research has mainly focused on the socio-economic and environmental impacts of ETR, there is less literature on the social responses. This paper gives an overview and history of German ETR as well as investigating the understanding of perceptions and attitudes towards ETR of those being "subject to tax". The research is based on qualitative social research methods. As with the other PETRAS papers, interviews were conducted with policy-makers and business leaders and focus groups were formed with lay persons. The results show that responses of policy-makers and business leaders are modest. Although some criticisms about the specific design of the German ETR remain, complaints towards ETR are settled. Attitudes appear influenced by more fundamental convictions such as economic interest or altruistic views. In contrast, ETR appears to politicise common people. Attitudes are influenced by the overall comprehension of the ETR concept, the expected impacts, perceived information deficits, as well as a general distrust in politics. Our data show that the linking of environmental and employment objectives is not understood and not welcomed. In order to increase social acceptance, the paper discusses refocusing ETR on environmental objectives, modestly increasing the share of ETR revenue spent for environmental purposes, removing inconsistencies in the ETR design, and improving information policy.
In the long term, any definition of adequacy consistent with UNFCCC Article 2 will require increased mitigation efforts from almost all countries. Therefore, an expansion of emission limitation commitments will form a central element of any future architecture of the climate regime. This expansion has two elements: deepening of quantitative commitments for Annex B countries and the adoption of commitments for those countries outside of the current limitation regime. This article seeks to provide a more analytical basis for further differentiation among non-Annex I countries. To be both fair and reflective of national circumstances, it is based on the criteria of responsibility, capability and potential to mitigate. Altogether, non-Annex I countries were differentiated in four groups, each including countries with similar national circumstances: newly industrialized countries (NICs), rapidly industrializing countries (RIDCs), ‘other developing countries’, and least developed countries (LDCs). Based on the same criteria that were used for differentiating among non-Annex I countries, a set of decision rules was developed to assign mitigation and financial transfer commitments to each group of countries (including Annex I countries). Applying these decision rules results in (strict) reduction commitments for Annex I countries, but also implies quantifiable mitigation obligations for NICs and RIDCs, assisted by financial transfers from the North. Other developing countries are obliged to take qualitative commitments, but quantifiable mitigation commitments for these countries and the LDC group would be not justifiable. As national circumstances in countries evolve over time, the composition of the groups will change according to agreed triggers.
Accounting for the social dimension of sustainability : experiences from the biotechnology industry
(2006)
Accounting for the social dimension of sustainability proves to be a challenge for corporate practitioners, due to its intangible, qualitative nature and lack of consensus on relevant criteria. We suggest a semi-quantitative approach based on stakeholder involvement to identify relevant aspects for a sector specific assessment of the social dimension. Our case study on biotechnology illustrates that the dialogue with internal and external stakeholders enabled the creation of a key performance indicator (KPI) set to account for social sustainability in the early design stages of biotechnological processes and product development. Indicators for eight aspects are identified for the social assessment: health and safety, quality of working conditions, impact on employment, education and training, knowledge management, innovation potential, customer acceptance and societal product benefit, and social dialogue. We describe the integration of the KPI set in a software application, tailor made for practitioners of the sector, and highlight first user experiences.
In a German case study, environmental input-output analyses (eIOA) combined with NAMEA-type tables were conducted for eleven selected environmental pressure variables. (NAMEA is an acronym for national accounts matrix including environmental accounts.) The analyses were conducted to derive the production-cycle-wide resource use and environmental impact potentials of final-demand product groups. The methodology permits identification and preliminary ranking of 10 product chains along which about two-thirds of German production-born environmental pressures arise. The most relevant product groups are construction work, food, motor vehicles, basic metals, and electricity. The ten product groups are characterized by both high resource requirements and high residual outputs (air emissions, wastes). The EU policy areas of integrated product policy and sustainable use of natural resources may address these product chains as a priority in order to identify and explore the possibility of reducing the environmental impacts from products throughout their life cycles and to decouple environmental impacts from resource use.
Considering the enormous ecological and economic importance of the transport sector the introduction of alternative fuels - together with drastic energy efficiency gains - will be a key to sustainable mobility, nationally as well as globally. However, the future role of alternative fuels cannot be examined from the isolated perspective of the transport sector. Interactions with the energysystem as a whole have to be taken into account. This holds both for the issue of availability of energy sources as well as for allocation effects, resulting from the shift of renewable energy from the stationary sector to mobile applications. With emphasis on hydrogen as a transport fuel for private passenger cars, this paper discusses the energy systems impacts of various scenarios introducing hydrogen fueled vehicles in Germany. It identifies clear restrictions to an enhanced growth of clean hydrogen production from renewable energy sources (RES). Furthermore, it points at systems interdependencies that call for a priority use of RES electricity in stationary applications. Whereas hydrogen can play an increasing role in transport after 2030 the most important challenge is to exploit short–mid-term potentials of boosting car efficiency.
The role of hydrogen in long run sustainable energy scenarios for the world and for the case of Germany is analysed, based on key criteria for sustainable energy systems. The possible range of hydrogen within long-term energy scenarios is broad and uncertain depending on assumptions on used primary energy, technology mix, rate of energy efficiency increase and costs degression ("learning effects"). In any case, sustainable energy strategies must give energy efficiency highest priority combined with an accelerated market introduction of renewables ("integrated strategy"). Under these conditions hydrogen will play a major role not before 2030 using natural gas as a bridge to renewable hydrogen. Against the background of an ambitious CO2-reduction goal which is under discussion in Germany the potentials for efficiency increase, the necessary structural change of the power plant system (corresponding to the decision to phase out nuclear energy, the transformation of the transportation sector and the market implementation order of renewable energies ("following efficiency guidelines first for electricity generation purposes, than for heat generation and than for the transportation sector")) are analysed based on latest sustainable energy scenarios.
This article presents the findings of a European study on energy efficiency in the public sector, entitled "Public procurement of Energy Saving Technologies in Europe" (PROST), completed in 2003. Energy efficiency in the public sector goes far beyond energy savings and climate protection. Energy efficiency must be seen as a strategy, which deals both with scarce public funds and with profound energy and climate challenges. The gains to be made are substantial. The study assessed the potential for energy and cost savings and the greenhouse gas reductions that are linked to energy efficiency in the European public sector. To the knowledge of the authors, this is the first time such an analysis has been carried out. The study concluded that there are no fundamental legal obstacles that would a priori disable the public sector from procuring energy efficient technologies or applying energy efficiency considerations in its daily building management routines. However, at the level of implementation obstacles can occur. It is therefore of paramount importance that there is sufficient political will and adequate incentive systems at all relevant levels. It appeared to be particularly effective when public procurement is energy-efficiency minded in all its operations and life cycle costing is applied for investments instead of conventional public budgeting procedures. The study demonstrates that consistent and EU-wide application of these principles and instruments can result in rather substantial savings both in terms of energy and in terms of money. With additional annual investments in energy efficiency of 80 million Euro, energy savings in the (EU15) Member States' public sector worth up to 12 billion Euro per year can be achieved. A supplementary analysis was performed for a selection of the new Member States, which indicated that the potential for energy and fiscal savings is substantial in those countries as well.
After two weeks of negotiations, climate diplomats completed the implementation of the Protocol, refined some of its instruments for implementation and agreed on processes for moving forward beyond the first Kyoto commitment period. The report by the Wuppertal Institute provides an overview and assessment of the agreements reached in Montreal.
Because of high efficiency, low environmental impacts and a potential role in transforming our energy system into a hydrogen economy, fuel cells are often considered as a key technology for a sustainable energy supply. However, the future framing conditions under which stationary fuel cells have to prove their technical and economic competitiveness are most likely characterised by a reduced demand for space heating, and a growing contribution of renewable energy sources to heat and electricity supply, which both directly limit the potential for combined heat and power generation, and thus also for fuelcells. Taking Germany as a case study, this paper explores the market potential of stationaryfuelcells under the structural changes of the energy demand and supply system required to achieve asustainable energy supply. Results indicate that among the scenarios analysed it is in particular a strategy oriented towards ambitious CO2-reduction targets, which due to its changes in the supply structure is in a position to mobilise a market potential that might be large enough for a successful fuel cell commercialisation. However, under the conditions of a business-as-usual trajectory the sales targets of fuel cell manufacturers cannot be met.
Grave concerns with the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) have increasingly surfaced in the international climate policy arena. The sectoral approaches described in this paper may be a way to address some of the shortcomings of this Kyoto mechanism. The paper outlines the criticisms that have been raised against the CDM as well as the conflicting interpretations of a sectoral approach and examines in how far it might resolve the mechanism’s perceived shortcomings. Furthermore, it outlines issues that need to be resolved when implementing a sectoral approach: distributing costs and benefits, defining the sector and its baseline, ensuring additionality and tackling procedural issues. A sectoral approach can enable countries to guide their structural development but it also opens up a gap between public and private investment that needs to be addressed before conflicts arise. Sectoral CDM activities may be able to lower transaction costs for projects that otherwise cannot compete in the CDM market and might even pave the way to sectoral greenhouse gas limitation targets in developing countries by establishing the necessary infrastructure for data collection. However, a sectoral CDM cannot be mistaken for a panacea. Some of the mechanism's problems remain, which highlights the need to establish additional instruments to support Southern countries in furthering sustainable development and embarking on a low-emission trajectory.
Global climate
(2006)
Global climate
(2007)
The Russian natural gas industry is the world's largest producer and transporter of natural gas. This paper aims to characterize the methane emissions from Russian natural gas transmission operations, to explain projects to reduce these emissions, and to characterize the role of emissions reduction within the context of current GHG policy. It draws on the most recent independent measurements at all parts of the Russian long distance transport system made by the Wuppertal Institute in 2003 and combines these results with the findings from the US Natural Gas STAR Program on GHG mitigation options and economics.
With this background the paper concludes that the methane emissions from the Russian natural gas long distance network are approximately 0.6% of the natural gas delivered. Mitigating these emissions can create new revenue streams for the operator in the form of reduced costs, increased gas throughput and sales, and earned carbon credits. Specific emissions sources that have cost-effective mitigation solutions are also opportunities for outside investment for the Joint Implementation Kyoto Protocol flexibility mechanism or other carbon markets.
A number of "roadmapping" activities are being carried out internationally with the aim of planning and facilitating transitions to hydrogen energy systems. However, there is an evident discrepancy between the treatment of quantitative and qualitative information in the majority of roadmapping efforts. Whilst quantitative information is frequently analysed in numerical and computational models, conversely qualitative information tends to be incorporated on a significantly more ad hoc basis. Previous attempts at incorporating qualitative considerations have not usually been systematised. In this paper we present a methodology aimed at increasing the rigour with which qualitative information is treated in hydrogen roadmapping activities. The key changes and actor mapping (KCAM) methodology was developed as the primary qualitative component of the European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap project "HyWays". KCAM, developed from a well known general systems development model, constitutes a means of qualitatively analysing variable hydrogen supply chains that is structured, systematic and flexible.
The enhanced use of biomass for the production of energy, fuels, and materials is one of the key strategies towards sustainable production and consumption. Various life cycle assessment (LCA) studies demonstrate the great potential of bio-based products to reduce both the consumption of non-renewable energy resources and greenhouse gas emissions. However, the production of biomass requires agricultural land and is often associated with adverse environmental effects such as eutrophication of surface and ground water. Decision making in favor of or against bio-based and conventional fossil product alternatives therefore often requires weighing of environmental impacts. In this article, we apply distance-to-target weighing methodology to aggregate LCA results obtained in four different environmental impact categories (i.e., non-renewable energy consumption, global warming potential, eutrophication potential, and acidification potential) to one environmental index. We include 45 bio- and fossil-based product pairs in our analysis, which we conduct for Germany. The resulting environmental indices for all product pairs analyzed range from -19.7 to +0.2 with negative values indicating overall environmental benefits of bio-based products. Except for three options of packaging materials made from wheat and cornstarch, all bio-based products (including energy, fuels, and materials) score better than their fossil counterparts. Comparing the median values for the three options of biomass utilization reveals that bio-energy (-1.2) and bio-materials (-1.0) offer significantly higher environmental benefits than bio-fuels (-0.3). The results of this study reflect, however, subjective value judgments due to the weighing methodology applied. Given the uncertainties and controversies associated not only with distance-to-target methodologies in particular but also with weighing approaches in general, the authors strongly recommend using weighing for decision finding only as a supplementary tool separately from standardized LCA methodology.
Scenarios for the future of renewable energy through 2050 are reviewed to explore how much renewable energy is considered possible or desirable and to inform policymaking. Existing policy targets for 2010 and 2020 are also reviewed for comparison. Common indicators are shares of primary energy, electricity, heat, and transport fuels from renewables. Global, Europe-wide, and country-specific scenarios show 10% to 50% shares of primary energy from renewables by 2050. By 2020, many targets and scenarios show 20% to 35% share of electricity from renewables, increasing to the range 50% to 80% by 2050 under the highest scenarios. Carbon-constrained scenarios for stabilization of emissions or atmospheric concentration depict trade-offs between renewables, nuclear power, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) from coal, most with high energy efficiency. Scenario outcomes differ depending on degree of future policy action, fuel prices, carbon prices, technology cost reductions, and aggregate energy demand, with resource constraints mainly for biomass and biofuels.
The material stocks in the anthroposphere are growing faster than ever due to urbanization and growing per capita use. Owing to the growing potential insecurity of raw material supply the evaluation of resources gains increasing attention. Despite growing utilization of anthropogenic deposits, ‘urban mining’ has not yet sufficiently been supported by specific exploration methods. An exploration method for anthropogenic deposits is proposed and described by application to the copper stocks of Switzerland. The method combines material flow analysis with a bottom‐up analysis of material stocks. The stock composition and temporal characteristics are analysed by surveys and literature analysis. The stock amounts to 269±31 kg capita -1 for the year 2000. The retrospective data are used as parameters to construct a dynamic stock model, which is calibrated by historical trade statistics. The potential for drafting scenarios is discussed. The stock situation in Switzerland is reviewed and compared with that of other regions.
The use of materials and the generation of waste are linked to economic activities and in many projections these are assumed to be a constant ratio of the economic activities. This may be the case considering detailed economic activities and unchanged technology. However, the assumption of constant coefficients is questionable when linking material use and waste generation to aggregated economic activities. Therefore, in this paper, econometrics is used to test the assumption of constant waste coefficients empirically. The analyses show that an assumption of constant waste coefficients is not supported, generally, and amodel allowing for trendwise changing coefficients is developed and used for projections of waste and material flows in 25 European countries.
In this study, the relevance of psychological variables as predictors of the ecological impact of mobility behavior was investigated in relation to infrastructural and sociodemographic variables. The database consisted of a survey of 1991 inhabitants of three large German cities. In standardized interviews attitudinal factors based on the theory of planned behavior, further mobility-related attitude dimensions, sociodemographic and infrastructural characteristics as well as mobility behavior were measured. Based on the behavior measurement the ecological impact of mobility behavior was individually assessed for all participants of the study. In a regression analysis with ecological impact as dependent variable, sociodemographic and psychological variables were the strongest predictors, whereas infrastructural variables were of minor relevance. This result puts findings of other environmental studies into question which indicate that psychological variables only influence intent-oriented behavior, whereas impact-oriented behavior is mainly determined by sociodemographic and household variables. The design of effective intervention programs to reduce the ecological impact of mobility behavior requires knowledge about the determinants of mobility-related ecological impact, which are primarily the use of private motorized modes and the traveled distances. Separate regression analyses for these two variables provided detailed information about starting points to reduce the ecological impact of mobility behavior.
For the option of “carbon capture and storage”, an integrated assessment in the form of a life cycle analysis and a cost assessment combined with a systematic comparison with renewable energies regarding future conditions in the power plant market for the situation in Germany is done. The calculations along the whole process chain show that CCS technologies emit per kWh more than generally assumed in clean-coal concepts (total CO2 reduction by 72-90% and total greenhouse gas reduction by 65-79%) and considerable more if compared with renewable electricity. Nevertheless, CCS could lead to a significant absolute reduction of GHG-emissions within the electricity supply system. Furthermore, depending on the growth rates and the market development, renewables could develop faster and could be in the long term cheaper than CCS based plants. Especially, in Germany, CCS as a climate protection option is phasing a specific problem as a huge amount of fossil power plant has to be substituted in the next 15 years where CCS technologies might be not yet available. For a considerable contribution of CCS to climate protection, the energy structure in Germany requires the integration of capture ready plants into the current renewal programs. If CCS retrofit technologies could be applied at least from 2020, this would strongly decrease the expected CO2 emissions and would give a chance to reach the climate protection goal of minus 80% including the renewed fossil-fired power plants.
The United Nations climate change conference in Nairobi came at the end of a year where public awareness of climate change had reached unprecedented heights. Nonetheless, the conference proceeded with its usual diplomatic ritual, apparently unaffected by time pressure. While it did see some progress on important issues for developing countries such as the Adaptation Fund, the Nairobi Work Programme on Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation to Climate Change, and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), on questions regarding the future of the regime it proved to be at best a confidence-building session that served to hear further views. More serious work on the future of the regime must therefore be expected of the next Conferences of the Parties.
This article by Wolfgang Sterk, Hermann E. Ott, Rie Watanabe and Bettina Wittneben summarises the results of the conference.
The "South-North Dialogue" Proposal, developed by researchers from developing and industrialised countries, outlined equitable approaches to mitigation. These approaches were based on the criteria of responsibility, capability and potential to mitigate, and include deep cuts in industrialised (Annex I) countries and differentiated mitigation commitments for developing countries. This paper quantitatively analyses the implications of the proposal for countries' emissions and costs. The analysis focuses on a "political willingness" scenario and four stabilisation scenarios. The analysis shows that stringent stabilisation targets imply that many developing countries would have to take on quantitative mitigation obligations by 2030, even when the Annex I countries take on ambitious mitigation commitments far beyond the Kyoto obligations. The "political willingness scenario" will probably not suffice to limit a warming of the Earth's atmosphere to below 2 °C.
National welfare is no longer an effective frame of reference for enlightened foreign policy. Policy consideration must encompass the common welfare of a world society. Environmental and resource crises are inextricably tied to security and justice. Sixty years after the founding of the United Nations there should be a new effort to establish a genuinely sustainable global order - a "San Francisco 2.0".
Stabilizing the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere at levels compatible with sustainable development is the objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and an imperative for the global community. This is a daunting task, and its magnitude and costs are debated among scientists as well as policy-makers [Stern, 2006]. While most GHGs in the past have been emitted by developed countries and they are called upon to reduce their emissions and take responsibility for past mistakes, the contribution of developing countries in the future will reach similar magnitudes and is equally threatening for life on this planet. While developing countries have no commitments under the UNFCCC, they can still contribute voluntarily to climate change mitigation. The Global Environment Facility (GEF), as the financial mechanism of the UNFCCC and the leading multilateral entity promoting energy efficiency and renewable energy in developing countries and countries in transition, needs to provide significant support to these countries with respect to reaching a path of sustainable energy supply and sustainable economic and social development. Since 1992, the GEF has provided around US$ 2 billion in grants to support projects in the climate change focal area, leveraging over US$ 10 billion in total investments. Most of these funds have been spent on climate change mitigation projects. The GEF's mandate with respect to mitigation is to develop, expand, and transform markets for energy and mobility in developing countries, enabling them to grow toward and efficiently operate on a less carbon-intensive path. In doing so, the GEF applies the incremental cost principle and is restricted in the selection of technologies by a number of factors. Developing markets for sustainable energy technologies and sustainable framework conditions is a long-term effort, and it is hard to understand how effective the GEF is or can be in fulfilling this mission. This paper discusses the magnitude of the challenge, and demonstrates that this challenge is too big for the GEF's limited funds, and provides some suggestions for the GEF's programming for maximizing its impact on global GHG emissions by seeking out the most rewarding opportunities and maximizing replication of successful project examples by effective outreach and knowledge management.
Approaches to address unsustainable ways of societal development constantly proliferate, but total consumption of resources and aggregate environmental impacts continue rising. This could partially be explained by weak attempts to develop comprehensive sustainability strategies that address the entire life cycle of products and especially resource extraction and use phases. This paper seeks to explore to what extent these life cycle stages and associated impacts are taken into account when various actors employ life cycle thinking and how these concerns can be better attended to in policy-making, business strategies and lifestyle choices. To accomplish this, we evaluate the efforts of the main stakeholders in reaching sustainable consumption and sustainable resource management, and impediments to further progress, and study whether and how deficits in these phases coincide and can potentially contribute to more holistic practical realization of life cycle thinking. We demonstrate that new approaches are needed to be able to tackle the international dimension of production and consumption.
This paper presents the educational program "Encouraging Sustainability", initiated and realized by the "Foundation Forum für Verantwortung", the "ASKO EUROPA-FOUNDATION", and the "Europäische Akademie Otzenhausen/European Academy Otzenhausen" in cooperation with the Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy. The goal is to intensify the public discourse on sustainability within civil society concerning options of sustainable consumption and production patterns. The innovative program consists of two parts: (1) Twelve Books About the Future of the Earth (see section 2), (2) six didactical modules (section 3): From Knowledge to Action. The educational modules focus on important topics and key issues discussed in the context of sustainability: climate change, resource use, energy efficiency, population growth, water use, securing future food supplies, biodiversity etc. The didactical materials are developed as “open learning scenarios: all materials can be linked to many communication forms and situations in a flexible manner. For the creation and realisation of the educational materials the authors have chosen the concept of Sinus-Milieus, developed by Sinus Sociovision, in order to address specific target groups (section 4). The main target groups in the program "Encouraging Sustainability" are "leading groups of society" and multipliers because of their high resource and energy consumption on the one hand and because of their skills and educational background on the other hand. In the last section of this paper (section 5) the first experiences from the implementation of the modules are presented. The authors emphasize that the broad and flexible approach chosen, should work effectively in a period in which green issues rank high in the public opinion worldwide.
Because of a growing global energy demand and rising oil prices coal-abundant nations, such as China and the United States, are pursuing the application of technologies which could replace crude oil imports by converting coal to synthetic hydrocarbon fuels - so-called coal-to-liquids (CtL) technologies. The case of CtL is well suited to analyse techno-economic, resources-related, policy-driven and actor-related parameters, which are affecting the market prospects of a technology that eases energy security constraints but is hardly compatible with a progressive climate policy. This paper concentrates on Germany as an example - the European Union (EU)'s largest member state with considerable coal reserves. It shows that in Germany and the EU, CtL is facing rather unfavourable market conditions as high costs and ambitious climate targets offset its energy security advantage.
Japan
(2008)
Because of a growing dependence on oil imports, powerful industrial, political and societal stakeholders in the UnitedStates are trying to enhance national energy security through the conversion of domestic coal into synthetic hydrocarbon liquid fuels - so-called coal-to-liquids (CtL) processes. However, because of the technology's high costs and carbon intensity, its market deployment is strongly affected by the US energy, technology and climate policy setting. This paper analyses and discusses policy drivers and barriers for CtL technologies in the United States and reaches the conclusion that an increasing awareness of global warming among US policy-makers raises the requirements for the technology's environmental performance and, thus, limits its potential to regional niche markets in coal-producing states or strategic markets, such as the military, with specific security and fuel requirements.
In this article, we analyze flows of the platinum group metals (PGMs) platinum, palladium, and rhodium and the environmental impacts associated with their supply in Europe. A model of the use of PGMs in Europe has been developed, and this is combined with a model of environmental pressures related to PGM production. Seven industrial sectors and product groups form the main users of PGMs in Europe, comprising the chemical, petroleum, and glass industries; jewelry, dentistry, electronic equipment, and car catalysts. Most relevant environmental impacts of secondary production in Europe and primary PGM production in South Africa, Russia, and Canada are taken into account, including emissions of sulphur dioxide and carbon dioxide and total material requirement. The article quantifies the PGM flows to, from, and within Europe in 2004. The automotive industry is the single largest user of primary PGMs, and catalytic converters represent the major PGM end use. The chemical and glass industries also require large amounts of PGM but rely mostly on secondary metals. The environmental impacts of primary production exceed those of secondary production by far. An analysis of the use of car catalytic converters shows that as a result of efforts to reduce air pollutant emissions in Europe, other negative environmental impacts, such as point-source pollution and mining waste, are occurring elsewhere - for example, at extraction and refining sites in Siberia and South Africa.
Building a "theory of sustainable development" : two salient conceptions within the German discourse
(2008)
This paper identifies a lack in sustainability science, of a well-founded normative basis, for the justification of sustainable development. In order to fill this gap, we aim at calling attention to two of the salient conceptions in the German discourse, namely the "Theory of Strong Sustainability" developed at the University of Greifswald and the "Integrative Sustainability Concept" proposed by the Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres (HGF), the biggest research institution in Germany. Both conceptions highly value the justification of a strong theoretical and normative core of sustainable development. This paper suggests that a well-founded "theory of sustainable development" provides the distinctiveness that allows the assessment whether or not there is progress towards sustainability. A clear scientific comprehension of sustainability may inform politics in sustainability affairs and function as a rational corrective for the otherwise diffuse discussion in the general public.
This article introduces elements of a global governance regime for sustainable resource management. It argues that such an approach is needed to combat the negative impacts arising from resource extraction and use as well as to overcome the co‐ordination problems of decentralized action. A first section summarizes main conflicts arising from limited access to natural resources and security of supply, environmental impacts and the performance of resource‐rich developing countries. A second section analyses existing initiatives for sustainable resource management such as resource funds, efforts to increase transparency, programmes in development co‐operation, standards and certification, material efficiency and resource productivity as well as efforts to limit the consumption of natural resources. Though these initiative have their merits, the article concludes that more systematic institutional mechanisms are needed. The third section introduces those institutional mechanisms: it describes the International Panel for Sustainable Resource Management (launched in November 2007), outlines elements of an international convention on sustainable resource management, develops the agenda for an international agency on the issue and discusses the interaction with existing international bodies such as the World Trade Organization. Written as a policy paper, the paper formulates proposals for various actors, from small‐scale miners to large‐scale global companies and governments. Its intention is to stimulate the debate and to broaden the horizon on the global dimension of using minerals.
This paper looks at improving resource productivity at global value chains. Resource flows from its extraction through the manufacturing and use phase towards its end-of-life – increasingly crossing national boundaries. Effective improvement in resource productivity requires actions beyond a country’s territory. This article focuses on non-renewable resource flows and analysis how developed countries are involved in four distinct phases of global value chains, and how this involvement links to changes in resource efficiency. Resource extraction and associated early processes activities have been increasingly moved from developed to developing countries. Offshoring manufacturing activities also becomes a common phenomenon. Throughout these activities, lower rates of resource productivity during extraction and manufacturing are frequently observed, leading not only to international burden shifting, but most likely letting these burdens grow. If appropriate international measures across the global divides are applied, resource efficiency potentials could be realised through offshoring and global consumption and recycling could also offer opportunities for resource productivity. International actions to improve resource productivity can help to meet economic and environmental objectives at the same time over a global value chain. It could also safeguard countries against unintended indirect and side effects from the relocation of resource flows and help the private sector to benefit from opportunities in global markets for resource efficiency.
The international climate negotiations have seen endless struggles between countries from South and North for almost 17 years, ever since the initiation of negotiations by the International Negotiation Committee (INC) for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The 13th meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC and the 3rd meeting of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (COP 13 / CMP 3) held in Bali in December 2007 (the Bali conference) could mark the beginning of a rapprochement. Parties agreed on initiating a new "Ad-hoc working group on Long-Term Cooperative Action under the Convention" (AWG-LCA) that aims to negotiate a post-2012 agreement with participation of all parties, including the US and developing countries, by the end of 2009 at COP 15 / CMP 5 in Copenhagen. This article examines the outcomes of the Bali conference, focussing on the negotiations regarding post-2012, flexible mechanisms, financial mechanisms, technology transfer and deforestation. Finally, the article concludes that the Bali Conference saw a significant shift in the battle lines, a rearrangement of positions and alliances that might well announce a decisive new era in global climate policy and provides a real chance to agree on an effective and workable post-2012 agreement in Copenhagen.
World primary copper production is expected to increase due to growing demand. Reflecting the geographical divergence of copper deposits and demanding industries, copper is produced by various production paths, differing in regional and technological aspects and related environmental pressures. For the mitigation of environmental pressures related to global material flows and a more sustainable resource management, policy makers, producers and buyers require information on regional resource efficiencies and effects of the key processes within the global production chain. This study quantifies material flows of refined copper production and environmental pressures along the pyro‐ and hydrometallurgical paths for Chile and Germany. Inventories for involved unit processes are distinguished by region and most commonly applied technologies, including electric power supply. Different production paths are compared by environmental pressure indicators (primary energy requirements, total material requirements, water consumption, GHG emissions, solid waste disposal, sulphur dioxide and arsenic emissions). Alternative options for improvement of technologies and supply patterns in Chile and Germany are compared.
In the aftermath of the controversy on genetically modified organisms it has become clear that in order to harness new technologies for economic and social benefit, a wide range of social, ethical and regulatory concerns need to be addressed. This document summarises some key results from Nanologue, a project that brought together leading research and opinions on the social, ethical and legal implications of nanotechnology applications (NT) in Europe. The document presents information about the project's findings of "societal aspects of NT", based upon the results from interviews with NT scientists and researchers. Insights gained during the project have been translated into future scenarios as well as into an internet-based support tool for NT researchers and product developers called NanoMeter. The scenarios as well as the NanoMeter are briefly introduced and conclusions drawn.
The sensitivity of climate phenomena in the low latitudes to enhanced greenhouse conditions is a scientific issue of high relevance to billions of people in the poorest countries of the globe. So far, most studies dealt with individual model results. In the present analysis, we refer to 79 coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations from 12 different climate models under 6 different IPCC scenarios. The basic question is as to what extent various state-of-the-art climate models agree in predicting changes in the main features of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the monsoon climates in South Asia and West Africa. The individual model runs are compared with observational data in order to judge whether the spatio-temporal characteristics of ENSO are well reproduced. The model experiments can be grouped into multi-model ensembles. Thus, climate change signals in the classical index time series, in the principal components and in the time series of interannual variability can be evaluated against the background of internal variability and model uncertainty.
There are large differences between the individual model predictions until the end of the 21st century, especially in terms of monsoon rainfall and the Southern Oscillation index (SOI). The majority of the models tends to project La Niña-like anomalies in the SOI and an intensification of the summer monsoon precipitation in India and West Africa. However, the response barely exceeds the level of natural variability and the systematic intermodel variations are larger than the impact of different IPCC scenarios. Nonetheless, there is one prominent climate change signal, which stands out from model variations and internal noise: All forced model experiments agree in predicting a substantial warming in the eastern tropical Pacific. This oceanic heating does not necessarily lead to a modification of ENSO towards more frequent El Niño and/or La Niña events. It simply represents a change in the background state of ENSO. Indeed, we did not find convincing multi-model evidence for a modification of the wavelet spectra in terms of ENSO or the monsoons. Some models suggest an intensification of the annual cycle but this signal is fairly model-dependent. Thus, large model uncertainty still exists with respect to the future behaviour of climate in the low latitudes. This has to be taken into account when addressing climate change signals in individual model experiments and ensembles.
What is the significance of the 2007 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bali? The formal outcomes, especially the "Bali Action Plan", are described and commented on, along with the challenges for negotiating a post-2012 agreement in Copenhagen during 2008 and 2009. The article concludes that the outcome of the Bali meeting is insufficient when compared to the nature of the challenge posed by climate change. However, it can nevertheless be considered a success in terms of "Realpolitik" in paving the way for the negotiations ahead, because some real changes have been discerned in the political landscape. The challenges for the road towards Copenhagen are manifold: the sheer volume and complexity of the issues and the far-reaching nature of decisions such as differentiation between non-Annex I countries pose significant challenges in themselves, while the dependency on the electoral process in the USA introduces a high element of risk into the whole process. The emergence of social justice as an issue turns climate policy into an endeavour to improve the world at large - thereby adding to the complexity. And, finally, the biggest challenge is the recognition that the climate problem requires a global solution, that Annex I and non-Annex I countries are mutually dependent on each other and that only cooperation regarding technology in combination with significant financial support will provide the chance to successfully tackle climate change.
Global climate
(2008)
Global climate
(2008)
While the number of projects under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is expanding rapidly, there currently are relatively few transport projects in the global CDM portfolio. This article examines existing CDM transport projects and explores whether sectoral approaches to the CDM may provide a better framework for transport than the current project‐based CDM. We ask: Would a sectoral approach to the CDM promote the structural change and integrated policymaking needed to achieve sustainable transport policy, making it hence more desirable than the framework of the current project‐based CDM? We conclude that it is possible to design sectoral transport activities within clear project boundaries that fit into a framework of a programmatic or policy‐based CDM. Although we are able to ascertain that transport policy research yields several modelling tools to address the methodological requirements of the CDM, it becomes apparent that sectoral approaches will accentuate transport projects' problems regarding high complexity and related uncertainties. The CDM may need new rules to manage these risks. Nonetheless, sectoral approaches allow the scaling up of activities to a level that affects long‐term structural change.
Energy efficiency is a national priority for China as rapid energy consumption growth aggravates its greenhouse gas emissions, local air pollution and energy scarcity. In the 1990s, a large number of voluntary agreements emerged in industrialised countries in order to improve industrial energy efficiency. These experiences are now taken into account in China. This article analyses the drivers for voluntary agreements on industrial energy efficiency in China, based on a case study of three enterprises in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province. Furthermore, the article reviews the institutional set-up of energy policy and investigates the pertaining policy culture. From the findings, conclusions are drawn on the role of voluntary agreements within China's larger policy context. We conclude that opposed to avoiding stricter regulation, voluntary agreements in Nanjing are reinterpreted in view of more stringent national provisions on energy efficiency in the 11th Five Year Plan. Hence, agreements have evolved into an implementation tool of national policy at the local level. For industry, another major driver for participation was identified as improving its relations with local authorities. Voluntary agreements showed to have the potential to overcome traditional constraints of implementing top-down policies at the local level in China.
A model of the use of the platinum group metals (PGMs) platinum, palladium, and rhodium in Europe has been developed and combined with a model of the environmental pressures related to PGM production. Compared to the base case presented in Part I of this pair of articles, potential changes in PGM production and use are quantified with regard to cumulative and yearly environmental impacts and PGM resource use, for the period 2005–2020. Reducing sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions of PGM producer Norilsk Nickel could cut the cumulative SO2 emissions associated with the use of PGMs in Europe by 35%. Cleaner electricity generation in South Africa could reduce cumulative SO2 emissions by another 9%. Increasing the recycling rate of end-of-life catalytic converters to 70% in 2020 could save 15% of the cumulative primary PGM input into car catalysts and 10% of the SO2 emissions associated with PGM production. In 2020, PGM requirements and SO2 emissions would be, respectively, 40% and 22% lower than the base case. Substituting palladium for part of the platinum in diesel catalysts, coupled with a probable palladium price increase, could imply 15% more cumulative SO2 emissions if recycling rates do not increase. A future large-scale introduction of fuel cell vehicles would require technological improvements to significantly reduce the PGM content of the fuel cell stack. The basic design of such vehicles greatly influences the vehicle power, a key parameter in determining the total PGM requirement.
More and more countries are incorporating the instrument of emissions trading into their national climate policies. This emerging mosaic of emissions trading schemes (ETS) raises the question of whether they should be linked with each other. From an economic point of view, linking of domestic schemes is supposed to increase the economic efficiency of carbon markets. In addition, linking is also expected by some to yield substantial political benefits in terms of the evolution of the UNFCCC/Kyoto regime. However, these optimistic prospects are based on a best-case scenario where all major countries establish environmentally effective emissions trading systems and then link them with each other. Real-life politics might develop rather differently. This paper therefore examines to what extent the current status of emissions trading in industrialised countries provides a basis for reinforcing and moving forward the international climate regime through linking domestic ETS. After comparing emerging emissions trading schemes from an institutional perspective, it emerges that not only emissions trading is at a very early stage in most countries, in addition the emerging systems are probably going to be designed very differently from the EU ETS. While for some design features such as the coverage design differences do not matter, there are some areas where the plans in many non-EU countries look crucially different from the EU system. The outlook for a linked international ETS is therefore currently still very uncertain. Given this state of affairs, the EU should pro-actively engage with the non-EU countries to try to harmonise their developing national emissions trading schemes with the EU ETS, widely disseminate the lessons it has learned from the EU ETS, strongly make the case for environmental integrity and at the same time make clear that systems that want to link to the EU ETS will need to meet certain quality criteria.
Purpose - This paper sets out to tackle the issue of climate change from a business perspective. It seeks to discuss why it is important to take climate change considerations into account in business decisions, how this can be done and what further action is required from managers and business scholars.
Design/methodology/approach - The paper describes ways of reducing emissions and adapting to climate change that can be implemented by any business. As an illustration, the proposed climate strategy of a large European utility company, RWE, is provided.
Findings - There are numerous ways to reduce emissions within business operations, along the supply chain and surrounding product usage and disposal. Climate-proofing operations is also becoming increasingly pertinent to businesses.
Research limitations/implications - New ways have to be found yet in order to take emission reductions to a more ambitious level by altering patterns of production and consumption.
Practical implications - The paper discusses how businesses can reduce their carbon footprint and anticipate changes in the physical and political environment related to climate change.
Originality/value - The paper is of value to managers who, today, are expected not only to reduce emissions from operations, but also to gain an awareness of the physical, political and social risks stemming from the impacts of climate change.
The current emissions trading debates in the EU and the USA were examined and the prospects for creating a transatlantic carbon market were analysed. A future US Emissions Trading Scheme (US ETS) may be designed very differently from the EU ETS, raising questions of compatibility. Crucial differences relate to the stringency of targets, the recognition of offsets, and price control mechanisms. These differences flow directly from the different policy and economic perspectives on emissions trading and climate policy in the USA and the EU. The two sides should therefore seek a way forward that reconciles potentially different climate policies. For example, the USA and the EU should consider an effort to harmonize carbon prices, and US legislation could phase out cost-containment mechanisms after some time period. Finally, both US and EU policies should have mechanisms that allow periodic recalibration, which would allow each to adjust to new technology, react to developing-country climate policies, and learn from each other. In the longer term, this would allow both sides to strive for greater policy convergence, either through linked trading systems, harmonized prices, or a transition from harmonized prices to linkage.
The barriers to linking greenhouse gas cap-and-trade schemes are assessed, based on an analysis of existing and emerging trading schemes, including those in the USA, Japan, Australia, New Zealand and the EU. The feasibility of different forms of linking and the time frames for their implementation are examined. In particular, the barriers to direct bilateral linking are considered. It was found that only a few direct bilateral links will be viable in the short term, due to the divergent policy priorities of different nations and regions, reflected in critical design features, such as costcontainment measures. However, in the short term, cap-and-trade markets will very likely be indirectly linked via unilateral links to the CDM or new crediting mechanisms, which may be adopted within a successor treaty to the Kyoto Protocol. In order to ensure a harmonization of critical design elements in the mid to long term, early institutional cooperation may become necessary. Necessary policy steps and the appropriate institutional framework for such harmonization and, overtime, further integration of trading schemes are briefly delineated.
Achieving sustainable mobility in developing countries : suggestions for a post-2012 agreement
(2009)
In December 2009, countries meet in Copenhagen to establish a new global climate agreement. This article links the need for reducing transport-related greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries with the current international climate negotiations. Arguing that a sustainable transport approach requires comprehensive policy packages, it assesses the suitability of current climate negotiation proposals in promoting sustainable transport. The project-based approach under the current climate regime incentivises neither comprehensive sustainable transport and mobility policies, nor sufficient numbers of local projects. Current proposals to increase efforts by developing countries, to reform the Clean Development Mechanism, and to create new emission trading mechanisms are promising but still have to overcome several obstacles. One obstacle involves how to properly assess the impact of actions while maintaining streamlined procedures. The authors conclude from their analysis that the best way forward would be to establish an international mitigation fund with a dedicated transport window financed by industrialised countries. This fund would enable developing countries to implement national policies and local projects. Developing countries would outline low-carbon development strategies, including a sectoral strategy for low-carbon transport.
The global land area required to meet the German consumption of agricultural products for food and non-food use was quantified, and the related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, particularly those induced by land-use changes in tropical countries, were estimated. Two comprehensive business-as-usual scenarios describe the development corridor of biomass for non-food use in terms of energetic and non-energetic purposes. In terms of land use, Germany was already a net importer of agricultural land in 2004, and the net additional land required by 2030 is estimated to comprise 2.5–3.4 Mha. This is mainly due to biofuel demand driven by current policy targets. Meeting the required biodiesel import demand would result in an additional GWP of 23–37 Tg of CO2 equivalents through direct and indirect land-use changes. Alternative scenario elements outline the potential options for reducing Germany's land requirement, which reflect future global per capita availability.
This paper argues that Entertainment-Education (E-E) is a striking communication strategy for reaching middle and lower socio-economic classes with climate-friendly lifestyle messages. On the international level (e.g. in the US and the Netherlands) E-E approaches are being theoretically grounded, whereas in Germany they are not yet. Therefore further theoretical discussion and mapping of E-E approaches is central for future research. As a first step towards providing further theoretical foundations for E-E in the field of sustainability, the authors suggest a threefold mapping of E-E approaches. The threefold mapping of E-E approaches for communicating climate-friendly lifestyles to middle and lower class consumers is based on recent results from academic research and practical developments on the media market. The commonalities among the three is that they all promote pro-sustainability messages in an affective-orientated rather than cognitive-orientated, factual manner. Differences can be found in: the sender of the sustainability message, the targeted consumer groups and the media approach in use. Based on this, the paper draws the conclusion that two new paths for further research activities in the field of Entertainment-Education can be proposed: (1) Improving the existing approaches in practice by using theoretical foundation from the E-E field. This comprises at its core (A) to do formative, process and summative effect research on the messages and (B) to use E-E theory from the field of social psychology, sociology and communication science for further improvement and (2) Generating new E-E theories by analyzing the existing practical approaches in the media to communicate climate change.
The paper aims to shed light on the methodological challenges of GHG monitoring at local level and to give an overview on current practices. Questions addressed are as follows: How do the methodologies which underlie different GHG inventory tools differ? What are the critical variables explaining differences between inventories? Can different GHG inventory tools be compatible - and/or interoperable - and under which conditions? The first section discusses methodological challenges related to the formation of local GHG inventories. Rather than giving a comprehensive overview on methodological problems, this section mainly highlights some of the central methodological challenges posed by local GHG inventories. This overview identifies critical variables and clarifies concepts that are necessary for the understanding of the subsequent analysis. In section two, some of the most advanced GHG inventory tools are analysed and the most important differences between these tools are highlighted. The paper concludes that the methodologies are not consistent. Local GHG inventories can thus hardly be compared. The paper gives research and policy recommendations towards greater comparability and sketches the requirements of an international protocol on urban GHG inventories.
This paper presents the strategy for a large EU-funded Integrated Project: EXIOPOL ("A New Environmental Accounting Framework Using Externality Data and Input-Output Tools for Policy Analysis"), with special attention for its part in environmentally extended (EE) input-output (IO) analysis. The project has three principal objectives: (a) to synthesize and further develop estimates of the external costs of key environmental impacts for Europe; (b) to develop an EE IO framework for the EU-27 in aglobal context, including as many of these estimates as possible, to allow for the estimation of environmental impacts (expressed as LCA themes, material requirement indicators, ecological footprints or external costs) of the activities of different economic sectors, final consumption activities and resource consumption; (c) to apply the results of the work to external costs and EE I-O for illustrative policy questions.
Pit stop Poznan : an analysis of negotiations on the Bali action plan at the stopover to Copenhagen
(2009)
This paper analyzes the international climate negotiations that took place at the 14th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (COP) and the 4th Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP) held in Poznan, December 1–12, 2008. It works out the main issues at stake in the negotiations, contrasts divergences in interests amongst negotiating Parties, and summarizes the main results achieved in Poznan. Furthermore, it contextualizes the Poznan negotiations within the broader political and economic context, which has shaped climate policy making throughout 2008. The paper ends with an outlook on the tasks ahead in 2009, until the next COP/CMP in December 2009 in Copenhagen.
Global climate
(2009)
It is now widely recognized that effective communication and demand-side policies for alternative energy require sound knowledge of preferences and determinants of demand of the public and consumers. To date, public attitudes towards new transport technologies have been studied under very different conceptual frameworks. This paper gives an overview of the various conceptual frameworks and methodologies used, where four main approaches can be distinguished: general attitudinal surveys, risk perception studies, non-market economic valuation studies, and other approaches such as those based on semiotic theory. We then review the findings of the recent literature on acceptance, attitudes and preferences for hydrogen and fuelcell end-use technologies, focusing on vehicles. These studies are then contrasted with related research into alternative fuel vehicles. The paper finally discusses the main trends in research and avenues for further work in this field. We recommend, among other things, the use of approaches that build knowledge and familiarity with the technology prior to the exploration of attitudes, and the set up of studies that take a whole-systems perspective of hydrogen technologies and that look at hydrogen in the context of other competing clean technologies.
A promising candidate that may follow conventional vehicles with internal combustion engines combines hydrogen from regenerative sources of energy, fuelcells and an electric drive train. For early fleets introduced the refuelling infrastructure needs to be in place at least to the extent of the vehicles operational reach. The question arises which strategies may help to keep initial hydrogen and infrastructure cost low? Industrial production, distribution and use of hydrogen is well-established and the volumes handled are substantial. Even though today's industrialhydrogen is not in tune with the long-term sustainable vision, hydrogen production and infrastructure already in place might serve as a nucleus for putting that vision into practice. This contribution takes stock of industrial production and use of hydrogen in North Rhine-Westphalia based on a recently finalized project. It demonstrates to which extent industrial hydrogen could be used for a growing number of vehicles and at which time additional capacity might need to be installed.
This paper reviews the current EU policy framework in view of its impact on hydrogen and fuel cell development. It screens EU energy policies, EU regulatory policies and EU spending policies. Key questions addressed are as follows: to what extent is the current policy framework conducive to hydrogen and fuel cell development? What barriers and inconsistencies can be identified? How can policies potentially promote hydrogen and fuel cells in Europe, taking into account the complex evolution of such a potentially disruptive technology? How should the EU policy framework be reformed in view of a strengthened and more coherent approach towards full deployment, taking into account recent technology-support activities? This paper concludes that the current EU policy framework does not hinder hydrogen development. Yet it does not constitute a strong push factor either. EU energy policies have the strongest impact on hydrogen and fuel cell development even though their potential is still underexploited. Regulatory policies have a weak but positive impact on hydrogen. EU spending policies show some inconsistencies. However, the large-scale market development of hydrogen and fuel cells will require a new policy approach which comprises technology-specific support as well as a supportive policy framework with a special regional dimension.
Renewable energy can become the major energy supply option in low-carbon energy economies. Disruptive transformations in all energy systems are necessary for tapping widely available renewable energy resources. Organizing the energy transition from non-sustainable to renewable energy is often described as the major challenge of the first half of the 21st century. Technological innovation, the economy (costs and prices) and policies have to be aligned to achieve full renewable energy potentials, and barriers impeding that growth need to be removed. These issues are also covered by IPCC's special report on renewable energy and climate change to be completed in 2010. This article focuses on the interrelations among the drivers. It clarifies definitions of costs and prices, and of barriers. After reviewing how the third and fourth assessment reports of IPCC cover mitigation potentials and commenting on definitions of renewable energy potentials in the literature, we propose a consistent set of potentials of renewable energy supplies.
This paper undertakes a step to explaining the international economics of resource productivity. It argues that natural resources are back on the agenda for four reasons: the demand on world markets continues to increase, the environmental constraints to using resources are relevant throughout their whole life cycle, the access to critical metals could become a barrier to the low carbon economy, and uneven patterns of use will probably become a source of resource conflicts. Thus, the issue is also of relevance for the transition to a low carbon economy. "Material Flow Analysis" is introduced as a tool to measure the use of natural resources within economies and internationally; such measurement methodology now is being harmonized under OECD auspices. For these reasons, the paper argues that resource productivity - that is the efficiency of using natural resources to produce goods and services in the economy - will become one of the key determinants of economic success and human well-being. An empirical chapter gives evidence on time series of resource productivity increases across a number of economies. Introducing the notion of "material flow innovation", the paper also discusses the innovation dynamics and issues of competitiveness. However, as the paper concludes, market barriers make a case for effective resource policies that should provide incentives for knowledge generation and get the prices right.
The papers for this special issue were originally contributed to the 2nd International Wuppertal Colloquium on "Sustainable Growth, Resource Productivity and Sustainable Industrial Policy - Recent Findings, new Approaches for Strategies and Policies" that was held from 10 to 12 September 2009 in Wuppertal, Germany. The intensive discussion during the Colloqium and the subsequent rigorous review process have helped to facilitate this process - we wish to thank all participants and contributers, as well as Sevan Hambarsoomian and Deniz Erdem for administrative support.
The physical dimension of international trade. Part 1: Direct global flows between 1962 and 2005
(2010)
The physical dimension of international trade is attaining increased importance. This article describes a method to calculate complete physical trade flows for all countries which report their trade to the UN. The method is based on the UN Comtrade database and it was used to calculate world-wide physical trade flows for all reporting countries in nine selected years between 1962 and 2005. The results show increasing global trade with global direct material trade flows reaching about 10 billion tonnes in 2005, corresponding to a physical trade volume of about 20 billion tonnes (adding both total imports and total exports). The share from European countries is declining, mainly in favour of Asian countries. The dominant traded commodity in physical units was fossil fuels, mainly oil. Physical trade balances were used to identify the dominant resource suppliers and demanders. Australia was the principal resource supplier over the period with a diverse material export structure. It was followed by mainly oil-exporting countries with varying volumes. As regards to regions, Latin America, south-east Asian islands and central Asia were big resource exporters, mostly with increasing absolute amounts of net exports. The largest net importers were Japan, the United States and single European countries. Emerging countries like the "Asian Tigers" with major industrial productive sectors are growing net importers, some of them to an even higher degree than European countries. Altogether, with the major exception of Australia and Canada, industrialized countries are net importers and developing countries and transition countries are net exporters, but there are important differences within these groups.
The Gulf countries are largely dependent on exporting oil and natural gas for their national budgets. They mainly use domestic fossil fuels for their domestic energy supply. In spite of favorable geographic conditions, especially for solar energy, renewable energies are still a niche application. Abu Dhabi, besides Dubai, the most important emirate in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), has now started a process of "transforming oil wealth into renewable energy leadership", and has set the long-term goal of a "transition from a 20th Century, carbon-based economy into a 21st Century sustainable economy." This article is a case study about "Masdar City", a planned carbon-neutral town in Abu Dhabi. The article describes the key characteristics of Masdar City, analyses the drivers behind the project, identifies the main actors for its implementation, and seeks obstacles to creation and development as well as the policy behind Masdar City. Finally, a first judgment of possible diffusion effects of the project is done.
This study provides insight into the feasibility of a CO2 trunkline from the Netherlands to the Utsira formation in the Norwegian part of the North Sea, which is a large geological storage reservoir for CO2. The feasibility is investigated in competition with CO2 storage in onshore and near-offshore sinks in the Netherlands. Least-cost modelling with a MARKAL model in combination with ArcGIS was used to assess the cost-effectiveness of the trunkline as part of aDutch greenhouse gas emission reduction strategy for the Dutch electricity sector and CO2 intensive industry. The results show that under the condition that a CO2 permit price increases from €25 per tCO2 in 2010 to €60 per tCO2 in 2030, and remains at this level up to 2050, CO2 emissions in the Netherlands could reduce with 67% in 2050 compared to 1990, and investment in the Utsira trunkline may be cost-effective from 2020–2030 provided that Belgian and German CO2 is transported and stored via the Netherlands as well. In this case, by 2050 more than 2.1 GtCO2 would have been transported from the Netherlands to the Utsira formation. However, if the Utsira trunkline is not used for transportation of CO2 from Belgium and Germany, it may become cost-effective 10 years later, and less than 1.3 GtCO2 from the Netherlands would have been stored in the Utsiraformation by 2050. On the short term, CO2 storage in Dutch fields appears more cost-effective than in the Utsira formation, but as yet there are major uncertainties related to the timing and effective exploitation of the Dutch offshore storage opportunities.
Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) has matured over the past decades and become part of the broader field of sustainability assessment. To strengthen LCA as a tool and eventually increase its usefulness for sustainability decision-making, it is argued that there is a need to expand the ISO LCA framework by integration and connection with other concepts and methods. This paper explores the potential options for deepening and broadening the LCA methodologies beyond the current ISO framework for improved sustainability analysis. By investigating several environmental, economic and social assessment methods, the paper suggests some options for incorporating (parts of) other methods or combining with other methods for broadening and deepening the LCA.
Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates are major oil and natural gas producing countries that make up the Gulf Cooperation Council. The six GCC countries fall in the top 25 countries of carbon dioxide emissions per capita and are perceived as the main actors blocking international climate change negotiations. The aim of this article is to discuss from a policy perspective the capacities of the GCC states to switch toward an ecological modernization of their energy sectors. At the beginning of the paper, I analyze the benefits of transforming oil wealth into funding for renewable energy and energy efficiency. After this, I discuss obstacles to such a transformation process based on the rentier states theory. Finally, I investigate governance of the GCC on all levels (international, regional, and local). The article shows that the GCC countries have recently adopted a more pro-active approach toward ecological modernization. This reorientation has not yet resulted in the development of consistent strategies and policies, however. The concluding assumption based on the concept of policy transfer is that pioneering projects such as Masdar City and innovative regulation like the green building code in Dubai will spread within the GCC.
This study analyzes the usefulness of an attitude-based target group approach in predicting the ecological impact of mobility behavior. Based on a survey of 1,991 inhabitants of three large German cities, constructs derived from an expanded version of the Theory of Planned Behavior were used to identify distinct attitude-based target groups. Five groups were identified, each representing a unique combination of attitudes, norms, and values. The groups differed significantly from each other with regard to travel-mode choice, distances traveled, and ecological impact. In comparison with segmentations based on sociodemographic and geographic factors, the predictive power of the attitude-based approach was higher, especially with regard to the use of private motorized modes of transportation. The opportunities and limits of reducing the ecological impact of mobility behavior on the basis of an attitude-based target group approach are discussed.
The optimization of value chains is an important process to promote sustainable development, since value chains are closely linked to the satisfaction of human needs and combine different driving forces for environmental change. This article presents a methodological approach for the participatory development of value-chain wide sustainability indicator sets and their integration into a decision support tool in the specific case study of the chain "construction and refurbishment with wood". There are numerous indicator sets for sustainable development of forests and sustainable forestry available at different levels, ranging from local, regional and national to global scale assessments. Some efforts were also made to integrate later production stages of forest value chains (such as wood processing) in the assessment scope (e.g. for chain-of-custody certification). However, no indicator set has so far been available covering environmental, social and economic aspects for the entire value chain of building with timber. This gap was closed through applied sustainability research in the project "Holzwende 2020: Sustainable future markets for wood in the building sector".
Several energy scenario studies consider concentrated solar power (CSP) plants as an important technology option to reduce the world's CO2 emissions to a level required for not letting the global average temperature exceed a threshold of 2–2.4 °C. A global ramp up of CSP technologies offers great economic opportunities for technology providers as CSP technologies include highly specialised components. This paper analyses possible value creation effects resulting from a global deployment of CSP until 2050 as projected in scenarios of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Greenpeace International. The analysis focuses on the economic opportunities of German technology providers since companies such as Schott Solar, Flabeg or Solar Millennium are among the leading suppliers of CSP technologies on the global market.
Comparative analysis of environmental impacts of maize-biogas and photovoltaics on a land use basis
(2010)
This study aims to stimulate the discussion on how to optimize a sustainable energy mix from an environmental perspective and how to apply existing renewable energy sources in the most efficient way. Ground-mounted photovoltaics (PV) and the maize-biogas-electricity route are compared with regard to their potential to mitigate environmental pressure, assuming that a given agricultural area is available for energy production. Existing life cycle assessment (LCA) studies are taken as abasis to analyse environmental impacts of those technologies in relation to conventional technology for power and heat generation. The life-cycle-wide mitigation potential per area used is calculated for the impact categories non-renewable energy input, green house gas (GHG) emissions, acidification and eutrophication. The environmental performance of each system depends on the scenario that is assumed for end energy use (electricity and heat supply have been contemplated). In all scenarios under consideration, PV turns out to be superior to biogas in almost all studied impact categories. Even when maize is used for electricity production in connection with very efficient heat usage, and reduced PV performance is assumed to account for intermittence, PV can still mitigate about four times the amount of green house gas emissions and non-renewable energy input compared to maize-biogas. Soil erosion, which can be entirely avoided with PV, exceeds soil renewal rates roughly 20-fold on maize fields. Regarding the overall Eco-indicator 99 (H) score under most favourable assumptions for the maize–biogas route, PV has still a more than 100% higher potential to mitigate environmental burden. At present, the key advantages of biogas are its price and its availability without intermittence. In the long run, and with respect to more efficient land use, biogas might preferably be produced from organic waste or manure, whereas PV should be integrated into buildings and infrastructures.
This article analyses the negotiations on the future of the international climate regime at the United Nations Climate Summit in Copenhagen. It also discusses key issues in the ongoing business of implementing the Climate Convention and the Kyoto Protocol. The article lays out the main issues at stake in the negotiations, contrasts divergences in interests amongst negotiating parties, and summarises the results achieved in Copenhagen. The report discusses these results in detail and concludes with an outlook on how the challenges ahead could be overcome.
In 1990 a sovereign wealth fund was founded in Norway in which the country invests surpluses from oil and gas industry sales. The fund is designed to secure the state's ability to act in a post-petroleum era. At the end of the 1990's the voice of Norwegian civil society insisted that the sovereign wealth fund should not only ensure intergenerational justice, but should also contribute to the implementation of values and norms of the present country. At the end of 2004 the parliament finally agreed upon ethical regulations for the investment of the sovereign wealth fund. Now the second largest sovereign wealth fund in the world only invests in businesses that adhere to those ethical regulations. In the present paper, I seek to illustrate the emergence and outcomes of this new development in the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund.
Purpose - The Hot Spot Analysis developed by the Wuppertal Institute is a screening tool focussing on the demand of reliable sustainability-oriented decision-making processes in complex value chains identifying high priority areas ("hot spots") for effective measures in companies. This paper aims to focus on this tool.
Design/methodology/approach - The Hot Spot Analysis is a qualitative method following a cradle-to-cradle approach. With the examples of coffee and cream cheese hot spots of sustainability indicators throughout the entire life cycle are identified and evaluated with data from literature reviews and expert consultations or stakeholder statements. This paper focuses on the indicator resource efficiency as an example of how the methodology works.
Findings - The identified hot spots for coffee are the raw material procurement phase in terms of abiotic material, water and energy consumption, the production phase concerning biotic material and the energy consumption in the use phase. For cream cheese relevant hot spots appear in the raw material procurement phase in terms of biotic materials and water as well as biotic materials and energy consumption during the production phase.
Research limitations/implications - Life cycle analyses connected to indicators like resource efficiency need to be applied as consequent steps of a Hot Spot Analysis if a deeper level of analysis is eventually aimed at which is more cost and time intensive in the short term. The Hot Spot Analysis can be combined with other sustainability management instruments.
Practical implications - Research and management can be directed to hot spots of sustainability potential quickly which pays off in the long term.
Originality/value - The paper shows that companies can address sustainability potentials relatively cost moderately.
Preventing the worst consequences of climate change would require that GHG emissions be reduced to levels near zero by the middle of the century. To respond to such a daunting challenge, we need to rethink and redesign the currently highly energy-dependent infrastructures of industrial societies and particularly the urban infrastructures to become low- or even zero-carbon cities. Sustainable urban infrastructures need technology. In this paper focused on Western European Cities, we discuss a wide set of technologies in the fields of building, energy and transport infrastructures that can significantly contribute to a reduction of energy and/or GHG emissions and are already available or are in the pipeline. Based on the review of a recent study for the city of Munich, we then present how a mix of these technologies could reduce CO2-emissions by up to 90% for the metropolis of 1.3 million inhabitants and that this strategy could be economically attractive despite a high initial investment.
All of the residential buildings of a city like Munich could be entirely redesigned for EUR 200 per inhabitant annually, which is about one third of an average annual natural gas bill.
Energy used in buildings is responsible for more than 40% of energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the EU and their share in cost-efficient GHG mitigation potentials is estimated to be even higher. In spite of its huge savings potential of up to 80%, achievements are very slow in the building sector and much stronger political action seems to be needed. One important step in this direction has been the recast of the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) in autumn 2009. However, strong national implementation including powerful packages of flanking measures seems to be crucial to really make significant progress in this important field. In order to directly improve political action, we provide a differentiated country-by-country bottom up simulation of residential buildings for the whole EU, Norway, Iceland, Croatia and Liechtenstein. The analysis provides a database of the building stock by construction periods, building types, as well as typical building sizes. It includes a simulation of the thermal quality and costs of the components of the building shell for new buildings as well as the refurbishment of the existing building stock. Based on this differentiated analysis, we show in detail what would be needed to accelerate energy savings in the building sector and provide a more precise estimate of the potentials to be targeted by particular policies. We demonstrate, e.g. that the potential of building codes set via the EPBD would be located mainly in those countries that already have quite stringent codes in place. We show as well the high relevance of accelerating refurbishments and re-investment cycles of buildings. By providing a clear estimate of the full costs related to such a strategy, we highlight a major obstacle to accelerated energy-efficient building renovation and construction.
For parabolic trough power plants using synthetic oil as the heat transfer medium, the application of solid media sensible heat storage is an attractive option in terms of investment and maintenance costs. One important aspect in storage development is the storage integration into the power plant. A modular operation concept for thermal storage systems was previously suggested by DLR, showing an increase in storage capacity of more than 100 %. However, in these investigations, the additional costs needed to implement this storage concept into the power plant, like for extra piping, valves, pumps and control had not been considered. These aspects are discussed in this paper, showing a decrease of levelized energy costs with modular storage integration of 2 to 3 %. In a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) a comparison of an AndaSol-I type solar thermal power plant [1] with the original two-tank molten salt storage and with a "hypothetical" concrete storage shows an advantage of the concrete storage technology concerning environmental impacts. The environmental impacts of the “hypothetical” concrete based AndaSol-I decrease by 7 %, considering 1 kWh of solar electricity delivered to the grid. Regarding only the production of the power plant, the emissions decrease by 9.5 %.
Scientization : putting global climate change on the scientific agenda and the role of the IPCC
(2010)
Since the 1970s, climate change has dominated the international scientific and political agenda. In particular, the foundation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the end of the 1980s played a major role for the further enhancement of efforts in the field of climate change sciences. However, to understand the interaction of the worldwide coordination of climate change sciences as well as the role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and its consequences, it is worthwhile to take a look at the self-conception of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's tasks and work. This paper gives an idea of the history of international climate change science, its representation in public discourse and the role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by comprehensively illustrating its tasks, organization and self-image. Furthermore, the article tries to argue that the hitherto accepted concept of science followed within this body fails to integrate the idea of scientific ethics. It can be concluded that the conception of science represented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has heavily influenced worldwide attention to climate change, its becoming part of the political agenda as well as the ethical consequences.
Overviewing the European carbon (C), greenhouse gas (GHG), and non-GHG fluxes, gross primary productivity (GPP) is about 9.3 Pg yr-1, and fossil fuel imports are 1.6 Pg yr-1. GPP is about 1.25% of solar radiation, containing about 360 × 1018 J energy - five times the energy content of annual fossil fuel use. Net primary production (NPP) is 50%, terrestrial net biome productivity, NBP, 3%, and the net GHG balance, NGB, 0.3% of GPP. Human harvest uses 20% of NPP or 10% of GPP, or alternatively 1‰ of solar radiation after accounting for the inherent cost of agriculture and forestry, for production of pesticides and fertilizer, the return of organic fertilizer, and for the C equivalent cost of GHG emissions. C equivalents are defined on a global warming potential with a 100-year time horizon. The equivalent of about 2.4% of the mineral fertilizer input is emitted as N2O. Agricultural emissions to the atmosphere are about 40% of total methane, 60% of total NO-N, 70% of total N2O-N, and 95% of total NH3-N emissions of Europe. European soils are a net C sink (114 Tg yr−1), but considering the emissions of GHGs, soils are a source of about 26 Tg CO2 C-equivalent yr-1. Forest, grassland and sediment C sinks are offset by GHG emissions from croplands, peatlands and inland waters. Non-GHGs (NH3, NOx) interact significantly with the GHG and the C cycle through ammonium nitrate aerosols and dry deposition. Wet deposition of nitrogen (N) supports about 50% of forest timber growth. Land use change is regionally important. The absolute flux values total about 50 Tg C yr-1. Nevertheless, for the European trace-gas balance, land-use intensity is more important than land-use change. This study shows that emissions of GHGs and non-GHGs significantly distort the C cycle and eliminate apparent C sinks.
Japan
(2010)
This article addresses informational barriers to energy efficiency. It is a widely acknowledged result that an energy efficiency gap exists implying that the level of energy efficiency is at an inefficiently low level. Several barriers to energy efficiency create this gap and the presence of asymmetric information is likely to be one such barrier. The article finds that problems of moral hazard and adverse selection indeed can help explain the seemingly low levels of energy efficiency. The theory reveals two implications to policies on energy efficiency. First, the development of measures to enable contractual parties to base remuneration on energy performance must be enhanced, and second, the information on technologies and the education of consumers and installers on energy efficiency must be increased. Finally, it is found that the preferred EU policy instrument on energy efficiency, so far, seems to be the use of minimum requirements. Less used in EU legislation is the use of measuring and verification as well as the use of certifications. Therefore, it is concluded that the EU should consider an increased use of these instruments.
New technologies can be the basis for resource-efficient products and services and thus create eco-innovations, either by creating new functionalities in existing or new application fields or by substituting existing technologies in existing or new application fields. In this paper, an overview over different technology fields, products and strategies with resource efficiency potential, such as nanotechnolo- gies, material science, manufacturing technologies, process technologies and cross-cutting issues, is presented. There is a special focus on applications from nanotechnology issuing, e.g. functional surfaces or new "smart" materials with special functionalities. Furthermore, it is shown how companies can use the method Resource Efficiency Technology Radar to identify and evaluate technolo- gies with resource efficiency in order to incorporate them into their development activities.
Biogas and bio-methane that are based on energy crops are renewable energy carriers and therefore potentially contribute to climate protection. However, significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions resulting from agricultural production processes must be considered. Among those, the production and use of fertilizer, and the resulting leaching of nitrous oxide (N2O), are crucial factors. This article provides an integrated life cycle assessment (LCA) of biogas (i.e. bio-methane that has been upgraded and injected into the natural gas grid), taking into account the processes of fermentation, upgrading and injection to the grid for two different types of biogas plants. The analysis is based on different feedstocks from crop rotation systems for different locations in Germany. A special focus is on the sensitivity of assumptions of nitrous oxide emissions to overall GHG emissions. Much research exists on the measurement or modeling of the actual N2O emissions that result from farming processes. Since there is as yet no precise regional data, most analyses use tier-1 data from the IPCC national GHG inventories as a default. The present article coincides with recent research in indicating that this data varies at the regional level. However, it is not the scope of the article to evaluate the quality of existing data for N2O emissions, but to show the effects of different assumptions on the LCA of GHGs from bio-methane. Thus, a link between the provision of emission data and the practical implementation of biogas technology is provided. The main result is that the supply chain of substrates from agricultural processes appears to contribute the most to the GHG emissions of bio-methane. The "worst case" scenario where 5% of the nitrogen fertilizer used is emitted in form of N2O shows that the GHG mitigation potential of bio-methane versus natural gas is very small, so there is not much margin for error in the plant technology.
Natural gas makes an increasing contribution to the European Union's energy supply. Due to its efficiency and low level of combustion emissions this reduces greenhouse gas emissions compared to the use of other fossil fuels. However, being itself a potent greenhouse gas, a high level of direct losses of natural gas in its process chain could neutralise these advantages. Which effect will finally prevail depends on future economical as well as technical developments. Based on two different scenarios of the main influencing factors we can conclude that over the next two decades CH4 emissions from the natural gas supply chain can be significantly reduced, in spite of unfavourable developments of the supply structures. This, however, needs a substantial, but economically attractive investment into new technology, particularly in Russia.
Global climate
(2010)
The fifteenth Conference of the Parties (COP 15) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the fifth Conference of the Parties serving as Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP 5) took place on 7–18 December 2010 in Copenhagen. According to the "Bali Action Plan", the "roadmap" of the negotiations agreed at COP 13/CMP 3 in Bali in 2007, the Copenhagen conference was to deliver a comprehensive agreed outcome on the future climate regime. Meeting this deadline was of urgency not only because of the ever more alarming messages from climate science, but also because the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012. As ratification of a new agreement can be expected to take at least two years, a timely agreement on post-2012 emission targets is needed to prevent a "gap" after 2012. Expectations were high as more than 100 Heads of State and Government had announced their attendance and more than 40,000 participants had registered their names.
However, despite a record number of five preparatory meetings over the course of 2009, the fundamental differences between Parties proved to be too difficult to overcome. The main outcome of the conference, the "Copenhagen Accord", is only a political declaration, and even this declaration was not supported by all countries. In addition, Parties agreed to continue negotiations into 2010.
Northrhine-Westphalia (NRW) is the largest land of the Federal Republic of Germany. Until the 1970ies the Ruhr-area with a population of about 12 million people and a strong coal, steel and chemical industry had been plagued with severe pollution. In the 1970ies environmental protection had emerged on the international and national policy agendas. The federal and regional government launched massive legislative and economic public interventions for cleaning-up rivers, soils and air. As a result, a highly competitive eco-industry emerged. The article outlines main features of ecoindustries, the structural change of the Ruhr area and regional economic cluster policies in support of eco-industries in NRW. It draws conclusions for eco-industry policy developing from end-of-pipe towards integrated preventive approaches.
The importance of intact ecosystems for human-wellbeing as well as the dependence on functions and services they provide is undoubted. But still neither the costs of ecosystem degradation nor the benefits from ecosystem functions and services appear on socio-economic balance sheets when development takes place. Consequently overuse of natural resources is socio-economically promoted by conventional resource management policies and external effects (externalities), equally positives and negatives, remain unregarded. In this context the potential of payments for hydrological ecosystem services as a political instrument to foster sustainable natural resource use, and rural development shall be investigated. This paper introduces the principle concept of such payments, presents a case study from Nicaragua and highlights preliminary effects of the application of this instrument on natural resource use and development.
Concentrated solar power (CSP) plants are one of several renewable energy technologies with significant potential to meet a part of future energy demand. An integrated technology assessment shows that CSP plants could play a promising role in Africa and Europe, helping to reach ambitious climate protection goals. Based on the analysis of driving forces and barriers, at first three future envisaged technology scenarios are developed. Depending on the underlying assumptions, an installed capacity of 120 GWel, 405 GWel or even 1,000 GWel could be reached globally in 2050. In the latter case, CSP would then meet 13–15% of global electricity demand. Depending on these scenarios, cost reduction curves for North Africa and Europe are derived. The cost assessment conducted for two virtual sites in Algeria and in Spain shows a long-term reduction of electricity generating costs to figures between 4 and 6 ct/kWhel in 2050. The paper concludes with an ecological analysis based on life cycle assessment. Although the greenhouse gas emissions of current (solar only operated) CSP systems show a good performance (31 g CO2-equivalents/kWhel) compared with advanced fossil-fired systems (130–900 CO2-eq./kWhel), they could further be reduced to 18 g CO2-eq./kWhel in 2050, including transmission from North Africa to Europe.
During the last century, the consumption of materials for human needs increased by several orders of magnitude, even for non-renewable materials such as metals. Some data on annual consumption (input) and recycling/waste (output) can often be found in the federal statistics, but a clear picture of the main flows is missing. A dynamic material flow model is developed for the example of copper in Switzerland in order to simulate the relevant copper flows and stocks over the last 150 years. The model is calibrated using data from statistical and published sources as well as from interviews and measurements. A simulation of the current state (2000) is compared with data from other studies. The results show that Swiss consumption and losses are both high, at a level of about 8 and 2 kg/(cap year), respectively, or about three times higher than the world average. The model gives an understanding of the flows and stocks and their interdependencies as a function of time. This is crucial for materials whose consumption dynamics are characterised by long lifetimes and hence for relating the current output to the input of the whole past. The model allows a comprehensive discussion of possible measures to reduce resource use and losses to the environment. While increasing the recycling reduces losses to landfill, only copper substitution can reduce the different losses to the environment, although with a time delay of the order of a lifetime.
The North African countries Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt have been and are currently experiencing rapid growth in energy demand. This development confronts their political leaders with the question of how to expand or diversify their countries' generation capacities. In this context, renewable energies and nuclear power constitute options that have rarely been exploited so far in the region. This article analyzes the drawbacks and benefits of both alternatives, with a special focus on import and export dynamics. When attempting to make the strategic decision between renewables and atomic power, North African regional specifics and circumstances have to be taken into account. Hence, in a first step, the article characterizes the energy systems of the North African countries and presents scenarios for their future development. In a second step, it scrutinizes the energy challenges these states face in terms of domestic concerns and foreign affairs. Finally, a case study of Algeria is used to demonstrate how renewable energies, but not nuclear power, are able to respond to North African energy challenges.
Domestic emission trading systems in Non-Annex I countries : state of play and future prospects
(2011)
Since the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, the establishment of a harmonised international carbon market has been seen as one of the main strategies in international climate policy. So far, however, the market is far from being globally harmonised or systematically linked. Instead, a mosaic of national and sub-national markets has been under development, differing in timing, location, relationship to the Protocol and their levels of legal commitment.
Nevertheless, creating a global carbon market is a key goal of EU climate policy. As plans for the establishment of emissions trading systems (ETS) emerge in various non-Annex I countries, prospects for linking them to existing systems seem to finally get in reach. We have analysed the prospects of emission trading in non-Annex I countries in a recent paper on behalf of the German environment ministry. In the following we first give a theoretical overview of what design factors need to be taken into account when establishing national emission trading systems. The following elaborates on the status of emissions trading discussion in various non-Annex I countries.
This contribution presents the state of the art of economy-wide material flow accounting. Starting from a brief recollection of the intellectual and policy history of this approach, we outline system definition, key methodological assumptions, and derived indicators. The next section makes an effort to establish data reliability and uncertainty for a number of existing multinational (European and global) material flow accounting (MFA) data compilations and discusses sources of inconsistencies and variations for some indicators and trends. The results show that the methodology has reached a certain maturity: Coefficients of variation between databases lie in the range of 10% to 20%, and correlations between databases across countries amount to an average R2 of 0.95. After discussing some of the research frontiers for further methodological development, we conclude that the material flow accounting framework and the data generated have reached a maturity that warrants material flow indicators to complement traditional economic and demographic information in providing a sound basis for discussing national and international policies for sustainable resource use.
As illustrated by the case studies of end-of-life vehicles and waste electric and electronic equipment, the approach of an extended producer responsibility is undermined by the exports of used and waste products. This fact causes severe deficits regarding circular flows, especially of critical raw materials such as platinum group metals. With regard to global recycling there seems to be a responsibility gap which leads somehow to open ends of waste flows and a loss or down-cycling of potential secondary resources. Existing product-orientated extended producer responsibility (EPR) approaches with mass-based recycling quotas do not create adequate incentives to supply waste materials containing precious metals to a high-quality recycling and should be amended by aspects of a material stewardship. The paper analyses incentive effects on EPR for the mentioned product groups and metals, resulting from existing regulations in Germany. It develops a proposal for an international covenant on metal recycling as a policy instrument for a governance-oriented framework to initiate systemic innovations along the complete value chain taking into account product group- and resource group-specific aspects on different spatial levels. It aims at the effective implementation of a central idea of EPR, the transition of a waste regime still focusing on safe disposal towards a sustainable management of resources for the complete lifecycle of products.
This paper analyses drivers for resource use and material productivity acrosscountries. This is not only relevant in light of soaring raw material prices but also because EU policies, such as the "Thematic Strategy on the Sustainable Use of Natural Resources" (COM [2005] 670), the EU Raw Materials Initiative (COM [2008] 699) and various similar policies internationally, seek to better manage materials along their life-cycle and across economies. In order to better understand the system dynamics of material use, our paper applies methodologies of material flow analysis and regression analysis to identify the major drivers for resource use and decoupling from GDP. Drivers are understood as those factors that exert influence on human activities to use resources. A panel data set is taken for the European Union for the years 1980–2000 (EU-15) and 1992–2000 (EU-25). The main drivers of resource use were found to be energy efficiency, new dwellings and roads construction activities. Shortcomings of the methodology are also discussed.
Biogas and bio-methane that are based on energy crops are renewable energy carriers and therefore potentially contribute to climate protection. However, significant greenhouse gas emissions resulting from agricultural production processes must be considered, mainly resulting from agricultural production processes, as fertilizer use, pesticide etc.
This paper provides an integrated life cycle assessment (LCA) of biogas (i.e. bio-methane that has been upgraded and injected into the natural gas grid), taking into account the processes of fermentation, upgrading and injection to the grid for two different types of biogas plants thus examining the current state of the art as well as new, large-scale plants, operated by industrial players. Not only technical and engineering aspects are taken into account here, but also the choice of feedstock which plays an important role as to the overall ecological evaluation of bio-methane.
The substrates evaluated in this paper - aside from maize - are rye, sorghum, whole-crop-silage from triticale and barley, and the innovative options of agricultural grass (Landsberger Gemenge, a mixture of hairy vetch (vicia villosa), crimson clover (trifolium incarnátum) and Italian ryegrass (lolium multiflorum)) as well as a combination of maize and sunflower.
The purpose of the paper is to share the findings of a European innovation transfer project (2008-2010) for strengthening sustainability in European handicraft with the aim of transferring a German qualification and consulting concept. The focus of the paper is a train-the-trainer design, which was developed, tested and evaluated with regard to the specific qualification needs and the existing qualification concepts of five European countries. The paper provides content, didactic approach and methods of the train-the-trainer design and the key results of the related analysis of research data. Furthermore, the train-the-trainer design is embedded within the project approach, the methodology of realising an innovation transfer and the associated project products. The results of the train-the-trainer design evaluation are reflected upon with regard to starting points of a European qualification concept for sustainability in handicraft.
Global climate
(2011)
The article discusses the process and outcomes along the central "building blocks" of the negotiations. According to the Bali Action Plan, the negotiations are proceeding under two tracks. First, the "Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments by Annex I Countries under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP)", which was established at CMP 1 in Montreal in 2005, is negotiating future emission targets for industrialised countries (listed in Annex I of the UNFCCC). Second, while the "Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention (AWG-LCA)" also negotiates commitments for Annex I countries, in practice this was originally deemed to relate in particular to those that have not ratified the Protocol - that is, the USA. In addition, the AWG-LCA negotiates "nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs)" of developing countries, which are to be supported and enabled by industrialised countries through technology, financing and capacity building. Both the NAMAs and the support are to be undertaken in a measurable, reportable and verifiable manner. Finally, the AWG-LCA negotiates ways to enhance adaptation efforts of developing countries, which are also to be financially and technologically supported by industrialised countries.
The study presents the results of an integrated assessment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the power plant sector in Germany, with special emphasis on the competition with renewable energy technologies. Assessment dimensions comprise technical, economic and environmental aspects, long-term scenario analysis, the role of stakeholders and public acceptance and regulatory issues. The results lead to the overall conclusion that there might not necessarily be a need to focus additionally on CCS in the power plant sector. Even in case of ambitious climate protection targets, current energy policy priorities (expansion of renewable energies and combined heat and power plants as well as enhanced energy productivity) result in a limited demand for CCS. In case that the large energy saving potential aimed for can only partly be implemented, the rising gap in CO2 reduction could only be closed by setting up a CCS-maximum strategy. In this case, up to 22% (41 GW) of the totally installed load in 2050 could be based on CCS. Assuming a more realistic scenario variant applying CCS to only 20 GW or lower would not be sufficient to reach the envisaged climate targets in the electricity sector. Furthermore, the growing public opposition against CO2 storage projects appears as a key barrier, supplemented by major uncertainties concerning the estimation of storage potentials, the long-term cost development as well as the environmental burdens which abound when applying a life-cycle approach. However, recently, alternative applications are being increasingly considered–that is the capture of CO2 at industrial point sources and biomass based energy production (electricity, heat and fuels) where assessment studies for exploring the potentials, limits and requirements for commercial use are missing so far. Globally, CCS at power plants might be an important climate protection technology: coal-consuming countries such as China and India are increasingly moving centre stage into the debate. Here, similar investigations on the development and the integration of both, CCS and renewable energies, into the individual energy system structures of such countries would be reasonable.
The article estimates the natural resource consumption due to nutrition from the supply and demand sides. Using the MIPS (Material Input per Service Unit) methodology, we analyzed the use of natural resources along the supply chains of three Italian foodstuffs: wheat, rice and orange-based products. These figures were then applied for evaluating the sustainability of diets in 13 European countries. The results outline which phases in food production are more natural resource demanding than others. We also observed different levels of sustainability in the European diets and the effect of different foodstuffs in the materials, water and air consumption.
Material flows induced by national economies can be regarded as indirect pressure indicators for environmental degradation. Economy-wide material flow analysis and indicators have been designed to monitor material and energy flows at the macroeconomic level and to provide indicators, which could contribute to management of resourceuse and output emission flows from both economic, environmental and broader sustainability points of view. These indicators can serve various purposes including monitoring the material basis of national economies and related environmental pressures, assessment of the material and resource productivity and monitoring the implications of trade and globalisation.
The main part of this paper compares the material and resourceuse of the Czech Republic, Germany and the EU-15 by means of DMI and TMR indicators over the period of 1991–2004 (1991–2000 for EU-15). At the aggregate level both indicators in all three economies do not show any clear decreasing or increasing trends over the period considered. This means that environmental pressure related to use of materials for production and consumption purposes remains rather stable. All the economies however, recorded an increase in the efficiency of transforming the material/resource inputs into economic output. The analysis further revealed that most of the dynamics of DMI and TMR in the Czech Republic tended towards a higher similarity with Germany and the EU-15. In the future, further decreases in DMI as well as in TMR of fossils fuels might be expected in the Czech Republic, which could be counteracted by increase in DMI and TMR of metal ores/metal resources and non-metallic minerals/non-metallic resources. The future development of total DMI, TMR and material/resource intensity in both the Czech Republic and Germany will depend on further shifts to less material intensive industries and services and on increasing material efficiency in production and consumption of particular products. This is not only a technological, but also a social challenge, as there are barriers in current mode of governance and in shaping of current economic and social systems to do so.
If the current energy policy priorities are retained, there may be no need to focus additionally on carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the power plant sector of Germany. This applies even in the case of ambitious climate protection targets, according to the results of the presented integrated assessment study. These cover a variety of aspects: Firstly, the technology is not expected to become available on a large scale in Germany before 2025. Secondly, if renewable energies and combined heat and power are expanded further and energy productivity is enhanced, there is likely to be only a limited demand for CCS power plants, as a scenario analysis of CCS deployment in Germany shows. Thirdly, cost analysis using the learning curve approach shows that the electricity generation costs of renewable electricity approach those of CCS power plants. This leads to the consequence that, from 2020, several renewable technologies may well be in a position to offer electricity at a cheaper rate than CCS power plants. In addition, a review of new life cycle assessments for CO2 separation in the power plant sector indicates that the greenhouse gas emissions from 1 kW h of electricity generated by first-generation CCS power plants could only be reduced by 68 % to 87 % (95 % in individual cases). Finally, a cautious, conservative estimate of the effective German CO2 storage capacity of approximately 5 billion tonnes of CO2 is calculated, including a fluctuation range yielding values between 4 and 15 billion tonnes of CO2. Therefore, the total CO2 emissions caused by large point sources in Germany could be stored for 12 years (basic value) or for 8 or 33 years (sensitivity values).
Towards a resource policy : unleashing productivity dynamics and balancing international distortions
(2012)
The paper outlines guidelines and pillars of a resource policy. Two reasons favour the formulation of such policy: a demand to increase sluggish resource productivity growth as well as environmental damages occurring along material flows at an international scale. Thus, it is both the innovation and environmental perspective that legitimate policies. The paper surveys recent empirical trends. Referring to research on innovation and transition management, it develops guidelines for a resource policy, namely, market order, provision function, learning processes, market development, and orientation. It furthermore describes four instruments as potential pillars of a future policy mix: a tax on construction minerals, an ecologically differentiated VAT tax, and an international covenant for metals and an international convention for sustainable resource management. The paper finally reflects these guidelines and pillars against weaknesses and ongoing discussions of climate policy. It concludes that despite all uncertainties and complexities, a well-designed resource policy is on the verge of becoming essential for unleashing eco-innovation dynamics.
This paper focuses on market incentives by the introduction of a construction minerals tax as an example of a resource tax. Currently, various European countries levy taxes or duties on primary construction materials, but a harmonisation of the taxation is not planned. Provided the tax rate has a perceptible price effect, the taxation of a resource can foster a demand management or the reduction of the raw material consumption and the governance of side and secondary effects. A construction minerals tax can target the stimulation of demand for secondary raw materials and recycled products, and - because the reuse of construction and demolition waste has technical limits - a stronger emphasis on the conservation of buildings and infrastructures. This has positive effects on the environment and the innovation efforts and it helps to internalise externalities. Germany, used as a case study in this paper, does not raise any taxes on other raw materials than energy sources at the federal level. For this reason, potential impacts of the introduction of a construction minerals tax will be explored and the results of a simulation will be provided.
This paper addresses future perspectives for the management of resources on an international level. Failures of international open markets result in significant material leakage. Here, taking the example of material used vehicles, we develop elements of an international metal covenant that should allow for a more sustainable management of global material flows in that area. Our proposal is based on two principles: any regulation should actively seek industry participation, taking advantage of business interest in supplying a sufficient quantity of materials while lowering materials costs; and it should also address public issues such as sustainability of recycling and waste. In this paper we first analyse contracts as a tool for bridging gaps in knowledge when multiple actors are involved. We then give empirical evidence for material leakage in the case of used vehicles from Germany, before outlining the elements of a proposed international metals covenant. Finally, we analyse potential impacts and discuss legal and institutional issues.
Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to summarize and discuss the results from the LIVING LAB design study, a project within the 7th Framework Programme of the European Union. The aim of this project was to develop the conceptual design of the LIVING LAB Research Infrastructure that will be used to research human interaction with, and stimulate the adoption of, sustainable, smart and healthy innovations around the home.
Design/methodology/approach - A LIVING LAB is a combined lab-/household system, analysing existing product-service-systems as well as technical and socioeconomic influences focused on the social needs of people, aiming at the development of integrated technical and social innovations and simultaneously promoting the conditions of sustainable development (highest resource efficiency, highest user orientation, etc.). This approach allows the development and testing of sustainable domestic technologies, while putting the user on centre stage.
Findings - As this paper discusses the design study, no actual findings can be presented here but the focus is on presenting the research approach.
Originality/value - The two elements (real homes and living laboratories) of this approach are what make the LIVING LAB research infrastructure unique. The research conducted in LIVING LAB will be innovative in several respects. First, it will contribute to market innovation by producing breakthroughs in sustainable domestic technologies that will be easy to install, user friendly and that meet environmental performance standards in real life. Second, research from LIVING LAB will contribute to innovation in practice by pioneering new forms of in-context, user-centred research, including long-term and cross-cultural research.
Purpose - Iran as an energy-rich country faces many challenges in the optimal utilization of its vast resources. High rates of population and economic growth, a generous subsidies program, and poor resource management have contributed to rapidly growing energy consumption and high energy intensity over the past decades. The continuing trend of rising energy consumption will bring about new challenges as it will shrink oil export revenues, restraining economic activities. This calls for a study to explore alternative scenarios for the utilization of energy resources in Iran. The purpose of this paper is to model demand for energy in Iran and develop two business-as-usual and efficiency scenarios for the period 2005-2030.
Design/methodology/approach - The authors use a techno-economic or end-use approach to model energy demand in Iran for different types of energy uses and energy carriers in all sectors of the economy and forecast it under two scenarios: business as usual (BAU) and efficiency.
Findings - Iran has a huge potential for energy savings. Specifically, under the efficiency scenario, Iran will be able to reduce its energy consumption 40 percent by 2030. The energy intensity can also be reduced by about 60 percent to a level lower than the world average today.
Originality/value - The paper presents a comprehensive study that models the Iranian energy demand in different sectors of the economy, using data at different aggregation levels and a techno-economic end-use approach to illuminate the future of energy demand under alternative scenarios.
The multi-level perspective has successfully been applied to the analysis of complex sector transitions in the energy, the health or the food production sector. Is this framework also helpful to understand and give prescriptive advice for sustainability transformations within a national science system? Based on a comprehensive study of the diffusion of transdisciplinary sustainability research in Germany, this article analyzes the institutional dimension of a changing science-society relation in the German science system. It uses the multi-level perspective as a fruitful heuristic in order to identify potential pathways for a broader diffusion of transdisciplinary sustainability science. The importance of niche coalitions of frontrunner universities and research institutes are highlighted.
This paper examines the effects of an increased integration of concentrated solar power (CSP) into the conventional electricity systems of Morocco and Algeria. A cost-minimizing linear optimization tool was used to calculate the best CSP plant configuration for Morocco's coal-dominated power system as well as for Algeria, where flexible gas-fired power plants prevail. The results demonstrate that in both North African countries, storage-based CSP plants offer significant economic advantages over non-storage, low-dispatchable CSP configurations. However, in a generalized renewable integration scenario, where CSP has to compete with other renewable generation technologies, like wind or photovoltaic (PV) power, it was found that the cost advantages of dispatchability only justify CSP investments when a relatively high renewable penetration is targeted in the electricity mix.
Concerns over climate change and the security of industrial feedstock supplies have been opening a growing market for biobased materials. This development, however, also presents a challenge to scientists, policy makers, and industry because the production of biobased materials requires land and is typically associated with adverse environmental effects. This article addresses the environmental impacts of biobased materials in a meta-analysis of 44 life cycle assessment (LCA) studies. The reviewed literature suggests that one metric ton (t) of biobased materials saves, relative to conventional materials, 55 ± 34 gigajoules of primary energy and 3 ± 1 t carbon dioxide equivalents of greenhouse gases. However, biobased materials may increase eutrophication by 5 ± 7 kilograms (kg) phosphate equivalents/t and stratospheric ozone depletion by 1.9 ± 1.8 kg nitrous oxide equivalents/t. Our findings are inconclusive with regard to acidification (savings of 2 ± 20 kg sulfur dioxide equivalents/t) and photochemical ozone formation (savings of 0.3 ± 2.4 kg ethene equivalents/t). The variability in the results of life cycle assessment studies highlights the difficulties in drawing general conclusions. Still, common to most biobased materials are impacts caused by the application of fertilizers and pesticides during industrial biomass cultivation. Additional land use impacts, such as the potential loss of biodiversity, soil carbon depletion, soil erosion, deforestation, as well as greenhouse gas emissions from indirect land use change are not quantified in this review. Clearly these impacts should be considered when evaluating the environmental performance of biobased materials.
The energy potential of agricultural residues in Tanzania has so far not been evaluated and quantified sufficiently. Moreover, the scientific basis for estimations of the sustainable potential of wastes and residues is still very limited. This paper presents an attempt to evaluate the theoretical and technical potential of residues from the sisal sector in Tanzania with regards to energy recovery through anaerobic digestion. The characteristics and availability of sisal residues are defined and a set of sustainability indicators with particular focus on environmental and socio-economic criteria is applied. Our analysis shows that electricity generation with sisal residues can be sustainable and have positive effects on the sustainability of sisal production itself. All sisal residues combined have an annual maximum electricity potential of 102 GW h in 2009, corresponding to up to 18.6 MW of potential electric capacity installations. This estimated maximum potential is equivalent to about 3 % of the country's current power production. Utilizing these residues could contribute to meeting the growing electricity demand and offers an opportunity for decentralized electricity production in Tanzania.
This paper attempts to assess whether renewable energy self-sufficiency can be achieved in the crop production and processing sector in Tanzania and if this could be accomplished in an environmentally sustainable manner. In order to answer these questions the theoretical energy potential of process residues from commercially produced agricultural crops in Tanzania is evaluated. Furthermore, a set of sustainability indicators with focus on environmental criteria is applied to identify risks and opportunities of using these residues for energy generation. In particular, the positive and negative effects on the land-use-system (soil fertility, water use and quality, biodiversity, etc.) are evaluated. The results show that energy generation with certain agricultural process residues could not only improve and secure the energy supply but could also improve the sustainability of current land-use practices.
The Energy End-use Efficiency and Energy Services Directive (ESD) of the European Union requires the member states to define and attain an overall target of at least 9 % annual energy savings between 2008 and 2016. Even if this target is indicative, this is the first international framework mandating countries to report on their energy savings results and prove achievement of their targets. The directive thus also required the development of harmonised calculation methods that can be used by member states for this proof and reporting. Existing literature covers most of the usual issues related to energy savings evaluation, but mostly looking at single, given energy efficiency programmes or policies. The evaluation objective for the ESD implementation is different, as it aims at accounting for the whole energy savings achieved in a country. Moreover, one of the main difficulties is the diversity in history and experience on this topic among the member states. In this context, the European project EMEEES has worked out an integrated system of bottom-up and top-down methods for the measurement of energy savings. The paper presents the overview of its final results. The proposals, inter alia, include 20 bottom-up and 14 top-down case applications of general evaluation methods. They enable more than 90 % of the potential energy savings to be measured and reported. They were used as a starting point by the European Commission to develop the methods recently recommended to the member states. Furthermore, the paper briefly discusses the importance of the quantity to be measured-all or additional energy savings - and the effect of measures implemented before the entering into force of the ESD ("early action"), and what this meant for the methods to be developed. It compares the main elements of calculation needed to ensure consistent results between bottom-up and top-down methods at the overall national level. Finally, general conclusions are drawn about what could be the next steps in developing an evaluation system that enables a high degree of comparability of results between different countries.
This paper presents the evaluation of a regional energy efficiency programme implemented in two "départements" of France. Électricité de France (EDF), a French energy company, provides refurbishment advice and financial incentives to end-users in the residential sector as well as specific training courses and certification to local installation contractors and building firms. Refurbishment measures analysed in this paper are efficient space heating equipment (condensing boilers, heat pumps and wood stoves or boilers), solar water heating systems and the installation of double-glazed windows. A billing analysis based on a survey of programme participants' energy consumption is used to calculate the energy savings attributed to the programme. In order to receive an economic feedback of this demonstration programme, the evaluation of both saved energy and programme costs is of importance. Detailed knowledge of the programme's cost-effectiveness is essential for EDF to achieve the saving obligations imposed by the French White Certificate scheme at the lowest cost. Results of this evaluation can support the development and implementation of further energy efficiency programmes with similar characteristics in other regions of France. The cost-effectiveness is determined from the perspective of the programme participant and the society as well as the energy company in charge of the programme. All cost and benefit components are calculated in Euro per kilowatt-hour, which allows a direct comparison of levelized costs of conserved energy with the avoidable costs of the energy supply system.
Consumption of natural resources should not exceed sustainable levels. The increasing use of biofuels and to some extent biomaterials, on top of rising food and feed demands, is causing countries to use a growing amount of global land, which may lead to land use conflicts and the expansion of cropland and intensive cultivation at the expense of natural ecosystems. Selective product certification cannot control the land use change triggered by growing overall biomass consumption. We propose a comprehensive approach to account for the global land use of countries for their domestic consumption, and assess this level with regard to globally acceptable levels of resource use, based on the concept of safe operating space. It is shown that the European Union currently uses one-third more cropland than globally available on a per capita basis and that with constant consumption levels it would exceed its fair share of acceptable resource use in 2030. As the use of global forests to meet renewable energy targets is becoming a concern, an approach to account for sustainable levels of timber flows is also proposed, based on the use of net annual increment, exemplified with preliminary data for Switzerland. Altogether, our approach would integrate the concept of sustainable consumption into national resource management plans; offering a conceptual basis and concrete reference values for informed policy making and urging countries to monitor and adjust their levels of resource consumption in a comprehensive way, respectful of the limits of sustainable supply.
The exploitation of coltan in Central Africa can be considered a case of conflict minerals due to its nature. Many international organizations and bodies, national governments and private sector organizations seek to address this conflict, in particular via transparency, certification and accountability along the material supply chain. This paper analyses the international trade dimension of coltan and gives evidence on the dimension of illicit trade of coltan. The authors start from the hypothesis that illicit trade of coltan sooner or later will enter the market and will be reflected in the statistics. The paper is structured in the following manner: first, a short section gives a profile of coltan production and markets; second, an overview of the mining situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and related actors. The third section addresses mechanisms, actors and measurement issues involved in the international trade of coltan. The final part draws lessons for certification and conflict analysis and offers some guidance for future research.
The paper identifies two main possible gateways to trace illegal trade in coltan: the neighboring countries, especially Rwanda, and the importing countries for downstream production, in particular China. Our estimation is that the value of such illicit trade comes close to $ 27 million annually (2009), roughly one-fifth of the world market volume for tantalum production. With regard to any certification the paper concludes that this will become challenging for business and policy: (a) Central Africa currently is the largest supplier of coltan on the world market, many actors profit from the current situation and possess abilities to hide responsibility; (b) China will need to accept more responsibility, a first step would be the acceptance of the OECD guidelines on due diligence; (c) better regional governance in Central Africa comprises of resource taxation, a resource fund and fiscal coordination. An international task force may provide more robust data, however more research will also be needed.
Sustainable energy technologies are widely sought-after as essential elements in facing global challenges such as energy security, global warming and poverty reduction. However, in spite of their promising advantages, sustainable energy technologies make only a marginal contribution to meeting energy related needs in both industrialised and developing countries, in comparison to the widespread use of unsustainable technologies. One of the most significant constraints to their adoption and broad diffusion is the socio-economic context in which sustainable energy technologies are supposed to operate. The same holds true for community-based energy projects in developing countries supported by the WISIONS initiative. Practical strategies dealing with these socio-economic challenges are crucial elements for project design and, particularly, for the implementation of project activities. In this paper experiences from implementing community-based projects are reviewed in order to identify the practical elements that are relevant to overcome socio-economic challenges. In order to systematise the findings, an analytical framework is proposed, which combines analytical tools from the socio-technical transition framework and insights from participative approaches to development.
The potential of natural gas as a bridging technology in low-emission road transportation in Germany
(2012)
Greenhouse gas emission reductions are at the centre of national and international efforts to mitigate climate change. In road transportation, many politically incentivised measures focus on increasing the energy efficiency of established technologies, or promoting electric or hybrid vehicles. The abatement potential of the former approach is limited, electric mobility technologies are not yet market-ready. In a case study for Germany, this paper focuses on natural gas powered vehicles as a bridging technology in road transportation. Scenario analyses with a low level of aggregation show that natural gas-based road transportation in Germany can accumulate up to 464 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent emission reductions until 2030 depending on the speed of the diffusion process. If similar policies were adopted EU-wide, the emission reduction potential could reach a maximum of about 2.5 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent. Efforts to promote natural gas as a bridging technology may therefore contribute to significant emissions reductions.
This study aims to investigate whether, to what extent and how a transition toward integrated flood management has taken place in the Dongting Lake area at the middle Yangtze. Accordingly, we conducted a longitudinal research of its flood management (1949–2009). We developed an analytical framework linking regime components to two societal learning types (double and triple-loop learning) that are key to a regime transition. Our study shows that the transition toward integrated flood management has already started, but the whole regime transformation will still take time to complete, due to, for example, the not-yet-ready decision-making processes that shape the structure changes as well as the incompatibilities between what is on paper and real implementation. To understand how the regime transition took place, we investigated where and how triple-loop learning was initiated as well as how so-called "informal learning processes" has contributed to the transition of Dongting flood management.
In the past few decades, geochemically scarce metals have
become increasingly relevant for emerging technologies in
domains such as energy supply and storage, information and
communication, lighting or transportation, which are regarded as
cornerstones in the transition towards a sustainable post-fossil
society. Accordingly, the supply risks of scarce metals and possible
interventions towards their more sustainable use have been
subject to an intense debate in recent studies. In this article, we
integrate proposed intervention options into a generic life cycle
framework, taking into account issues related to knowledge
provision and to the institutional setting. As a result, we obtain
a landscape of intervention fields that will have to be further
specified to more specific intervention profiles for scarce metals
or metals families. The envisioned profiles are expected to have
the potential to reduce action contingency and to contribute to
meeting the sustainability claims often associated with emerging
technol ogies.
For decades, the Chinese government has been searching for solutions to cope with the increasing imbalance between the supply and demand of water in the Yellow River Basin. This paper aims at a better understanding of the development of the water allocation regime in the Yellow River Basin between 1950 and 2009, introducing a fresh perspective based on the notion of "regime transition". Accordingly, we investigated 1) whether so-called "Windows of Opportunity for Transition (WOPTs)" emerged, triggering a transition, and whether WOPT(s) resulted in a stable transition towards the new regime; 2) how informal learning processes and epistemic communities have contributed to the regime change. We adapted Kingdon's "multiple stream model" and identified four WOPTs from the 1950s, analyzing the reconfiguration process of the regime after the onset of the transition. Our examples of two types of informal learning processes demonstrate their contribution to the creation of WOPTs and the reconfiguration of the regime. Furthermore, this study indicates, in a qualitative manner, how epistemic communities contribute to the knowledge base of the regime, and thus to its development. Finally, we have provided a general insight into the further development of the water allocation regime and highlighted potential avenues for further studies.
To achieve an efficient use and allocation of limited water resources and thus resolve increasing water use conflicts due to fast rising societal water demands, in 2000, the Chinese government started a management strategy of 'Construction of a Water Saving Society (WSS)'. It is guided by the principle that socio-economic development should consider the carrying capacity of the ecosystem and focuses on institutional innovation, building on the water rights concept. This paper explores the innovation process during the transition towards WSS by investigating the development course of the innovation process during the transition towards WSS, and the adaptive capacity of the existing water management regime underlying the innovation process. Accordingly, an analysis framework consisting of three types of governance activities and factors determining a regime's adaptive capacity was developed, based on the theory of transition management and adaptive governance. The Tianjin and Zhangye WSS experiments were selected for a deep understanding of local innovations. It is revealed that co-evolution of all three types of governance activities that are claimed to be essential for transition has taken place. However, the current adaptive capacity of the regime still needs further enhancement to support the transition towards the desired WSS in China. Finally, some general insights are provided for policy innovations in other political economies.
The Durban conference decided to establish a new market-based mechanism that is to cover a broad segment of a country's economy. The implementation details are to be agreed at this year's conference in Qatar. The question is, however, which developing countries would actually be able to implement such a new mechanism. The introduction of the EU emission trading system highlighted the many challenges that even advanced developed countries face when establishing a carbon market. This paper by Wolfgang Sterk and Florian Mersmann therefore aims to explore the essential prerequisites for the implementation of new market mechanisms (NMM). In addition to a theoretical discussion it considers the cases of China and Mexico.
The paper analyzes a Bolivian region for possible cultivation of the oil plant Jatropha curcas for sustainable biodiesel production in order to replace in part Bolivia's diesel imports. The specific site for this study is located in the dry region of Gran Chaco in Santa Cruz. The aim of this work is to analyse the potential of useable land and resources for sustainable biodiesel production from Jatropha without competition with edibles production using economic, environmental and social criteria. In addition the article introduces Jatropha as one of the preferred oil plants for biodiesel production in several countries and indicates its different uses. The recommendation to cultivate Jatropha for biodiesel production is based on an exploration of the possibility of land use in the selected region and the benefits Jatropha production could offer. In this manner a sustainable cultivation of Jatropha in the region of Gran Chaco is recommended to produce biodiesel and to improve some of the environmental problems facing the region.
Material footprint of low-income households in Finland : consequences for the sustainability debate
(2012)
The article assesses the material footprints of households living on a minimum amount of social benefits in Finland and discusses the consequences in terms of ecological and social sustainability. The data were collected using interviews and a questionnaire on the consumption patterns of 18 single households. The results are compared to a study on households with varying income levels, to average consumption patterns and to decent minimum reference budgets. The low-income households have lower material footprints than average and most of the material footprints are below the socially sustainable level of consumption, which is based on decent minimum reference budgets. However, the amount of resources used by most of the households studied here is still at least double that required for ecological sustainability. The simultaneous existence of both deprivation and overconsumption requires measures from both politicians and companies to make consumption sustainable. For example, both adequate housing and economic mobility need to be addressed. Measures to improve the social sustainability of low-income households should target reducing the material footprints of more affluent households. Furthermore, the concept of what constitutes a decent life should be understood more universally than on the basis of standards of material consumption.
Global trade is increasingly being challenged by observations of growing burden shifting, in particular of environmental problems. This paper presents the first worldwide calculations of shifted burden based on material flow indicators, in particular direct and indirect physical trade balances. This study covers the period between 1962 and 2005 and includes between 82 and 173 countries per year. The results show that indirect trade flow volumes have increased to around 41 billion tonnes in 2005. The traded resources with the highest share of associated indirect flows are iron, hard coal, copper, tin and increasingly palm oil. Regarding the burden balance between regions, Europe is the biggest shifter whereas Australia and Latin America are the largest takers of environmental burden due to resource extraction. To evaluate the findings from a global perspective, the results are analysed in terms of resource flow induced environmental pressure related to a country's land area in terms of total and per capita area. Resource endowment and population density seem to be more relevant in determining the physical trade balance, including indirect flows, than income level.
Defining the prevention of waste as top priority of the waste hierarchy - as confirmed by the revised Waste Framework Directive (WFD) - is much more than a simple amendment of ways to deal with waste, but means nothing less than a fundamental change of the socio-technical system of waste infrastructures and requires a transition from end-of-pipe technologies towards an integrated management of resources. The WFD therefore obligates member states to develop national waste prevention programs as a new policy instrument with the development of waste prevention indicators as one of the core elements. The article discusses the limitations of waste-based key figures and shows the need for more process-oriented indicators. As part of the development of national waste prevention programs such indicators reveal the relevance of different barriers that have to be overcome in order to make prevention an effective top priority in the waste hierarchy. With regard to path dependencies caused by sunk costs in end-of-pipe waste infrastructures the absolute amount of integrated environmental investments, as well as their share of the total waste-related investments, can be seen as indicators for the level of innovation activities aimed at waste prevention. Sector-specific indicators for the production phase could be used as benchmarks and to highlight differences in the need for policy interventions.
Increasing resource efficiency can potentially deliver important economic and environmental benefits. Many of these benefits are regularly foregone because the financial sector's capacity to adequately take the opportunities and risks arising from resource utilization and related climate change aspects into account has so far remained relatively undeveloped. Focusing on the case of Germany, a number of barriers to the inclusion of resource efficiency and climate change aspects into financial services' considerations are presented. Corresponding measures for improving the capacity of the financial sector to better integrate resource efficiency considerations and climate change related risks into its operating procedures are introduced. The measures encompass the areas of risk controlling, company reporting, institutional reporting requirements, as well as additional supporting measures.
Multinational mining companies operating in Latin America increasingly publish sustainability reports which outline their contributions to sustainable development. Companies argue that reports help communities better understand the importance of the benefits created by mining. However, we argue that sustainabilityreporting can only play a role in improving a company's performance and reputation if the quality of the reported data is good enough to answer community-raised contentious issues and if such are tackled through a stakeholder engagement process which includes "anti-mining" groups. The paper examines a miningconflict in Argentina's Bajo de la Alumbrera open pit mine. The assessment is based on a content analysis of Alumbrera's Sustainability Report (SR), primarily from 2009, complemented with insights from the 2010 and 2011 reports. The study reveals that environmental and economic indicators are the most contentious and least reported. The reports examined only briefly acknowledge these issues, and fail to detail the procedures followed to identify and engage stakeholders.
Only three days after the beginning of the nuclear catastrophe in Fukushima, Japan, on 11 March 2011, the German government ordered 8 of the country's 17 existing nuclear power plants (NPPs) to stop operating within a few days. In summer 2011 the government put forward a law - passed in parliament by a large majority - that calls for a complete nuclear phase-out by the end of 2022. These government actions were in contrast to its initial plans, laid out in fall 2010, to expand the lifetimes of the country's NPPs.
The immediate closure of 8 NPPs and the plans for a complete nuclear phase-out within little more than a decade, raised concerns about Germany's ability to secure a stable supply of electricity. Some observers feared power supply shortages, increasing CO2-emissions and a need for Germany to become a net importer of electricity.
Now - a little more than a year after the phase-out law entered into force - this paper examines these concerns using (a) recent statistical data on electricity production and demand in the first 15 months after the German government's immediate reaction to the Fukushima accident and (b) reviews the most recent projections and scenarios by different stakeholders on how the German electricity system may develop until 2025, when NPPs will no longer be in operation.
The paper finds that Germany has a realistic chance of fully replacing nuclear power with additional renewable electricity generation on an annual basis by 2025 or earlier, provided that several related challenges, e.g. expansion of the grids and provision of balancing power, can be solved successfully. Already in 2012 additional electricity generation from renewable energy sources in combination with a reduced domestic demand for electricity will likely fully compensate for the reduced power generation from the NPPs shut down in March 2011.
If current political targets will be realised, Germany neither has to become a net electricity importer, nor will be unable to gradually reduce fossil fuel generated electricity. Whether the reduction in fossil fuel use will be sufficient to adequately contribute to national greenhouse gas mitigation targets significantly depends on an active policy to promote electricity savings, continuous efforts to increase the use of renewables and a higher share of natural gas (preferably used in combined heat and power plants) in fossil fuel power generation.
Assessing the natural resource use and the resource efficiency potential of the Desertec concept
(2013)
Considering global warming, increasing commodity prices, and the dramatic consequences of the over-exploitation and overuse of resources, a transition to a renewable energy supply is necessary. This requires an (resource) efficient and renewable supply of operating reserve. In this article, a possible solution to this problem is analysed: the Desertec concept. It is meant to convert solar energy in areas with high solar irradiation into electrical energy by means of Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) transferring this energy by High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) lines into the whole European Union Middle East and North Africa (EU-MENA) area. In order to assess the resource efficiency potential of Desertec, three different kinds of CSP plants (parabolic trough, Fresnel collector and central receiver of the building classes Inditep, Novatec and Solar Tres) including heat storage systems (Molten Salt and Phase-Changing-Material) and the necessary HVDC are analysed using the Material Input per Service Unit (MIPS) methodology. The assessment is accomplished for three different locations (Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt) and two points of time (2025 and 2050). With these results, a scenario of electricity supply in Germany in 2050 with a 20% share of solar power import is calculated. Central receivers are the most resource efficient ones: their consumption of abiotic materials is only half of parabolic trough plants and two thirds of Fresnel trough plants. Water and air consumption is the lowest of all analyzed CSP plants as well. The scenario for Germany's fuel mix in 2050 shows that a predominantly renewable fuel mix reduces the consumption of abiotic materials by 75%, of water by 60% and of air by 45%. Only the consumption of biotic materials rises due to the higher share of biomass conversion.
Global climate
(2013)
This report lays out the major developments in Durban and assesses the main outcomes. It is structured along the Bali roadmap for a future climate agreement that was agreed at the Bali climate conference in 2007. The Bali roadmap comprises negotiations under two tracks. First, the Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments by Annex I Countries under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP), established at the conference in Montreal in 2005, has been negotiating future emission targets for developed countries (listed in Annex I of the United Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and hence called Annex I countries). As the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period expires in 2012, the AWG-KP is to agree on new targets for a second commitment period post-2012 as well as associated rules for accounting emissions. Second, the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention (AWG-LCA) has also been negotiating commitments for Annex I countries, intending to cover those that have not ratified the Protocol - that is, the USA. In addition, the LCA negotiates "Nationally appropriate mitigation actions" of developing countries, which are to be supported by Annex I countries with technology, financing and capacity-building. Both the actions and the support are to be "measurable, reportable and verifiable". The LCA also negotiates how such support for developing countries' mitigation actions may be delivered as well as how developing countries may be supported in adapting to the impacts of climate change.
Germany's current efforts to decarbonize its electricity system are analysed. As nuclear power and fossil power plants equipped with carbon capture and storage were ruled out in 2011, renewable electricity generation (RES) together with electricity savings are the primary focus for achieving decarbonization. Germany aims to have RES account for at least 80% of its electricity by 2050. Achieving renewable generation needs strong political support and regulatory provisions for its market integration. Four main technical and regulatory challenges are the maintenance of a steady and efficient expansion of RES, the provision of balancing capacities, the realization of the targeted electricity savings, and the smart adaptation of the transport and distribution grid. An overview of the existing and planned regulatory provisions for decarbonization are described, and some gaps identified, particularly with regard to the overall management of the process, the inclusion of electricity savings and the interference of Germany's decarbonization strategies with neighbouring countries. Policies that both accelerate grid expansion and direct RES expansion should immediately be put in place and can be supported by a targeted mobilization of balancing capacities. Electricity savings are a significant and cost-efficient strategy for low-carbon electricity. Policy relevance: Germany is actively converting its national electricity system towards a fully renewable one. As renewable electricity has reached about a quarter of total consumption, a number of technical and regulatory challenges arise. Current discussions and plans are described for the four main challenges: maintaining and optimizing high investment rates into RES generation technologies, providing balancing capacities, reducing demand, and adapting the grid to the changing needs. Policy recommendations for these four tasks highlight the need to intensify electricity demand reduction and also consider the potential interactions between the German electricity system and its neighbouring countries.
The 2011 Japanese earthquake and tsunami, and the consequent accident at the Fukushima nuclear power plant, have had consequences far beyond Japan itself. Reactions to the accident in three major economies Japan, the UK, and Germany, all of whom were committed to relatively ambitious climate change targets prior to the accident are examined. In Japan and Germany, the accident precipitated a major change of policy direction. In the UK, debate has been muted and there has been essentially no change in energy or climate change policies. The status of the energy and climate change policies in each country prior to the accident is assessed, the responses to the accident are described, and the possible impacts on their positions in the international climate negotiations are analysed. Finally, the three countries' responses are compared and some differences between them observed. Some reasons for their different policy responses are suggested and some themes, common across all countries, are identified. Policy relevance: The attraction of nuclear power has rested on the promise of low-cost electricity, low-carbon energy supply, and enhanced energy independence. The Fukushima accident, which followed the Japanese tsunami of March 2011, has prompted a critical re-appraisal of nuclear power. The responses to Fukushima are assessed for the UK, Germany, and Japan. Before the accident, all three countries considered nuclear as playing a significant part in climate mitigation strategies. Although the UK Government has continued to support nuclear new build following a prompt review of safety arrangements, Japan and Germany have decided to phase out nuclear power, albeit according to different timescales. The factors that explain the different decisions are examined, including patterns of energy demand and supply, the wider political context, institutional arrangements, and public attitudes to risk. The implications for the international climate negotiations are also assessed.
Resource efficiency in production and technological innovations are inadequate for considerably reducing the current use of natural resources. Both social innovations and a complementary and equally valued strategy of sustainable consumption are required: goods must be used longer, and services that support collaborative consumption (CC) patterns must be extended. "Using rather than owning" strategies, such as product sharing, have the potential to conserve resources. Based on the results of different German studies, this article highlights the resource-saving potentials of CC patterns and recommendations proposed for policies and further research questions. The purpose of this paper is to show that a general resource-saving potential can be realized by "use rather than own" schemes, depending on the application field and the framework for implementation. CC is suitable for making a positive contribution to achieving the Factor 10 target by playing an important role in changing consumer patterns.
The Low Carbon Future Cities (LCFC) project aims at facing a three dimensional challenge by developing an integrated city roadmap balancing: low carbon development, gains in resource efficiency and adaptation to climate change. The paper gives an overview of the first outcomes of the analysis of the status quo and assessment of the most likely developments regarding GHG emissions, climate impacts and resource use in Wuxi - the Chinese pilot city for the LCFC project. As a first step, a detailed emission inventory following the IPCC guidelines for Wuxi has been carried out. In a second step, the future development of energy demand and related CO2 emissions in 2050 were simulated in a current policy scenario (CPS). In parallel, selected aspects of material and water flows for the energy and the building sector were analyzed and modeled. In addition, recent and future climate impacts and vulnerability were investigated. Based on these findings, nine key sectors with high relevance to the three dimensions could be identified. Although Wuxi's government has started a path to implement a low carbon plan, the first results show that, for the shift towards a sustainable low carbon development, more ambitious steps need to be taken in order to overcome the challenges faced.
The European electricity market is linked to a carbon market with a fixed cap that limits greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, a number of energy efficiency policy instruments in the EU aim at reducing the electricity consumption. This article explores the interactions between the EU's carbon market on the one hand and instruments specifically targeted towards energy end-use efficiency on the other hand. Our theoretical analysis shows how electricity demand reduction triggered by energy efficiency policy instruments affects the emission trading scheme. Without adjustments of the fixed cap, decreasing electricity demand (relative to business-as-usual) reduces the carbon price without reducing total emissions. With lower carbon prices, costly low emission processes will be substituted by cheaper high emitting processes. Possible electricity and carbon price effects of electricity demand reduction scenarios under various carbon caps are quantified with a long-term electricity market simulation model. The results show that electricity efficiency policies allow for a significant reduction of the carbon cap. Compared to the 2005 emission level, 30% emission reductions can be achieved by 2020 within the emission trading scheme with similar or even lower costs for the industrial sector than were expected when the cap was initially set for a 21% emission reduction.
The article argues for a need to overcome a conventional notion of product design. In this regard, the article offers an integrative and systemic approach to sustainable design. Instead of focusing on objects, a user-centred perspective is adopted. A sustainable design of products and services requires the integration of production-orientated (efficiency and consistency) and consumption-orientated (sufficiency) strategies. The article introduces the concept of an indicator that is capable of comprehending a lifecycle-wide analysis of products and that favours the integration of existing sustainability strategies. The goal is not to design sustainable products but rather to design systems that manage to foster sustainable lifestyles. The article illustrates the usability of the introduced concept by showing examples of strategic integrative thinking in sustainable design from the Sustainable Summer Schools.
Current production and consumption patterns remain unsustainable: Global economic growth reaches planetary boundaries and puts increasing pressure on the world's natural resources. Whereas most economic actors just react to environmental pressures, proactive market actors and other non-governmental organisations, e.g. greentec firms or fair trade organisations, turn them into market opportunities or even create standards or certification schemes as promising problem-solving market instruments in global value chains. However, how legitimate are standards and certification schemes developed by collaborating non-state actors for sustainability in global value chains? What are conditions for the success of those market-based governance mechanisms? This paper discusses the legitimacy and effectiveness of standard setting in the case of palm oil and focuses on the Roundtable of Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) as the first global standard setting initiative in this respect. Conditions for the success of sustainability standard setting in global value chains are identified based on the concept of non-state market-driven (NSMD) governance, based on literature review and expert interviews on standard setting. Results from the case study on RSPO highlight strengths and weaknesses of its standard setting process in the light of increasing market demand for palm oil.
A cost-minimizing electricity market model was used to explore optimized infrastructures for the integration of renewable energies in interconnected North African power systems until 2030. The results show that the five countries Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt could together achieve significant economic benefits, reaching up to EUR 3.4 billion, if they increase power system integration, build interconnectors and cooperate on joint utilization of their generation assets. Net electricity exports out of North Africa to Europe or Eastern Mediterranean regions, however, were not observed in the regime of integrated electricity markets until 2030, and could only be realized by much higher levels of renewable energy penetration than currently foreseen by North African governments.
Both focus group discussions and information-choice questionnaires (ICQs) have previously been used to examine informed public opinions about carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS). This paper presents an extensive experimental study to systematically examine and compare the quality of opinions created by these two research techniques. Depending on experimental condition, participants either participated in a focus group meeting or completed an ICQ. In both conditions participants received identical factual information about two specific CCS options. After having processed the information, they indicated their overall opinion about each CCS option. The quality of these opinions was determined by looking at three outcome-oriented indicators of opinion quality: consistency, stability, and confidence. Results for all three indicators showed that ICQs yielded higher-quality opinions than focus groups, but also that focus groups did not perform poor in this regard. Implications for the choice between focus group discussions and ICQs are discussed.
This article presents the accounts of China's Total Material Requirement (TMR) during 1995–2008, which were compiled under the guidelines of Eurostat (2009) and with the Hidden Flow (HF) coefficients developed by the Wuppertal Institute. Subsequently, comparisons with previous studies are conducted. Using decomposition, we finally examine the influential factors that have changed the TMR of China. The main findings are the following: (1) During 1995–2008 China's TMR increased from 32.7 Gt to 57.0 Gt. Domestic extraction dominated China’s TMR, but a continuous decrease of its shares can be observed. In terms of material types, excavation constituted the biggest component of China's TMR, and a shift from biomass to metallic minerals is apparent; (2) Compared with two previous studies on China's TMR, the amounts of TMR in this study are similar to the others, whereas the amounts of the used part of TMR (Direct Material Input, DMI) are quite different as a result of following different guidelines; (3) Compared with developed countries, China's TMR per capita was much lower, but a continuous increase of this indicator can be observed; (4) Factors of Affluence (A) and Material Intensity (T), respectively, contributed the most to the increase and decrease of TMR, but the overall decrease effect is limited.
Global climate
(2013)
The eighteenth Conference of the Parties (COP 18) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the ninth Conference of Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP 8) came to a close in the evening of 8 December 2012. This report lays out the main developments in Doha and assesses the main outcomes. The first chapter outlines the overall situation coming into Doha. The subsequent chapters cover the negotiations on the future of the Kyoto Protocol, the discussions under the Durban Platform on developing a new comprehensive climate agreement by 2015 and increasing short-term ambition, and further near-term action under the UNFCCC.
While strategic studies on natural resources usually focus on the criticality of certain single materials, our paper starts from the inter-linkages between and among resources (called "the resource nexus"). It examines the impact any food and water stress may have on extraction activities in fragile states and regions. According to our approach, conflicts are likely to increase and may escalate in a number of countries, many of which are of relevance for the global supply of strategic materials. Future criticality for European and other industries, thus, is more likely to result from particular regions surpassing their adaptive capacities, and not mainly from limited availability or bottlenecks in the supply chain. The paper first develops a heuristic model of drivers for stress in resource-rich regions. Applying this approach, our paper then develops a global three-layered map along the dimensions of (i) future regional food and water stress, (ii) fragility of countries, and (iii) resource-rich countries with relevant reserves of strategic materials. As a result our paper tentatively identifies 15 countries at high risk and some 30 other countries being at relevant risk of causing resource supply disruptions. The conclusions underline the need to analyse those global inter-linkages and institutional mechanisms for strategic futures studies at a regional scale. As this may go beyond the capacities of actors on commodity markets, our paper also draws conclusions towards the establishment of an international data hub on the global resource nexus and for futures research. The paper points to some of the long-term implications of these issues.
The transport sector is the second largest and one of the fastest growing energy end-use sectors, representing 24% of global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. The International Energy Agency has developed scenarios for the transport sector within the overall concept of mitigation pathways that would be required to limit global warming to 2 °C. This paper builds on these scenarios and illustrates various passenger travel-related strategies for achieving a 2° transport scenario, in particular looking at how much technology improvement is needed in the light of different changes in travel and modal shares in OECD and non-OECD countries. It finds that an integrated approach using all feasible policy options is likely to deliver the required emission reductions at least cost, and that stronger travel-related measures result in significantly lower technological requirements.
Current well-being research often overlooks human dependency on natural resources and undervalues the way environmental impacts affect human activities. This article argues that the capability approach provides an applicable framework for inquiring into ecologically sustainable well-being. Therefore, this pilot study aims to develop a research method for integrating the measurement of natural resource use with capability-based well-being research. Semi-structured interviews were carried out with 18 Finnish minimum income receivers and their natural resource use (material footprints) was measured in five central functionings by using the Material Input Per Unit of Service (MIPS) method. The connections between capabilities, functionings and material footprints are interpreted from a person-centered perspective in order to explain the individual variety in material footprints. The results show that the material footprints of minimum income receivers are smaller than with an average Finn but they still exceed what is estimated to be an ecologically sustainable level of natural resource use.
This paper argues that the contemporary growth paradigm needs to be reconsidered on a micro level of consumption and product service-systems. This becomes necessary since a dynamic link between macro strategies and micro implementation of sustainable growth is missing up to date. Therefore, mainstream sustainability strategies of efficiency and consistency are extended by sufficiency in order to integrate strategies for individual welfare within their social environment. Limits to and drivers for growth are revised and updated socially in terms of qualitative values, diminishing marginal utility or symbolic social distinction. We elaborate a definition of sustainable growth that fosters individual welfare by enhancing social enactment within the boundaries of environmental space. Shifting focus on social aspects in design fosters more sustainable production and consumption patterns while sustaining individual welfare. We derive latent indications for eco-intelligent product service-arrangements and evaluate to concepts by referring to introduced definitions and according indications. With doing so, we illustrate new pathways for the translation of sustainable growth and strategies into product service-systems.
Several studies in Germany aimed at the development of a sound database on existing waste prevention measures by public bodies at the local, regional and federal levels. These results are the starting point for the creation of a national prevention program, which has to be presented by all European Member States until the end of 2013 - due to the revised European Waste Framework Directive. Based on this empirical foundation, this paper draws conclusions with regard to drivers and barriers for eco-innovations in the field of waste prevention. The analysis shows that an optimized adaptation of information on waste prevention to the needs of specific target groups is still missing but could be a relevant driver. With regard to barriers the results of the study show that waste prevention is by no means always a win–win-situation. Institutional frameworks are missing to coordinate the different interests and for the exchange of experiences that could help to realize learning effects regarding innovation approaches.
Resource use of wind farms in the German North Sea : the example of Alpha Ventus and Bard Offshore I
(2013)
The German government aims to obtain at least 40 percent of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030. One of the central steps to reach this target is the construction of deep sea offshore wind farms. The paper presents a material intensity analysis of the offshore wind farms "Alpha Ventus" and "Bard Offshore I" under consideration of the grid connection. An additional onshore scenario is considered for comparison. The results show that offshore wind farms have higher resource consumption than onshore farms. In general, and in respect to the resource use of other energy systems, both can be tagged as resource efficient.
Carbon recycling, in which organic waste is recycled into chemical feedstock for material production, may provide benefits in resource efficiency and a more cyclical economy - but may also create "trade-offs" in increased impacts elsewhere. We investigate the system-wide environmental burdens and cost associated with carbon recycling routes capable of converting municipal solid waste (MSW) by gasification and Fischer-Tropsch synthesis into ethylene. Results are compared to business-as-usual (BAU) cases in which ethylene is derived from fossil resources and waste is either landfilled with methane and energy recovery (BAU#1) or incinerated (BAU#2) with energy recovery. Monte Carlo and sensitivity analysis is used to assess uncertainties of the results. Results indicate that carbon recycling may lead to a reduction in cumulative energy demand (CED), total material requirement (TMR), and acidification, when compared to BAU#1. Global warming potential is found to be similar or slightly lower than BAU#1 and BAU#2. In comparison to BAU#2, carbon recycling results in higher CED, TMR, acidification, and smog potential, mainly as a result of larger (fossil-based) energy offsets from energy recovery. However, if a renewable power mix (envisioned for the future) is assumed to be offset, BAU#2 impacts may be similar or higher than carbon recycling routes. Production cost per kilogram (kg) MSW-derived ethylene range between US$1.85 and US$2.06 (Jan 2011 US$). This compares to US$1.17 per kg for fossil-based ethylene. Waste-derived ethylene breaks even with its fossil-based counterpart at a tipping fee of roughly US$42 per metric ton of waste feedstock.
The Durban Climate Conference agreed on the creation of a new market-based mechanism under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and to consider the establishment of an overall framework for various mitigation approaches, including opportunities for using markets ("Framework"). The creation of such a Framework is therefore of high political significance, as it should ensure on the one hand that new market-based mechanisms contribute to global climate change mitigation and to achievement of targets, and on the other hand, that different market-based approaches can be integrated in a global carbon market. As yet, there is little clarity as to the roles and design of such a framework. This paper contributes to the debate by discussing and evaluating inter alia several design options, and explores how the various options could be implemented and how they interrelate. It concludes that a strong central oversight at the level of the UNFCCC is probably the only option that could reassure the vast majority of UNFCCC Parties that the environmental integrity of new market-based mechanisms is in fact ensured. This does, however, not exclude that some reasonable balance may be struck between centralization and flexibility.
The need for recycling obsolete mobile phones has significantly increased with their rapidly growing worldwide production and distribution. Return and recycling rates are quite low; people tend to keep old, unused phones at home instead of returning them for recycling or further use because of a lack of knowledge and acceptance of return programmes. Thus far, individual use and recycling behavior has not shown any trend towards more sustainable patterns. Consequently, an increased awareness is needed for the high environmental and social impact throughout the whole value chain of a mobile phone - there is simply a lack of information and knowledge regarding sustainability issues around the mobile phone. A teaching material was therefore developed in a German research project, based on the concept of the ecological rucksack, presenting comprehensive information about the value chain of a mobile phone. Its application in different schools led to an increased awareness and interest among pupils for the connection between sustainability, resources and mobile phones. Based on these research results, this paper analyses young people’s knowledge of sustainability issues linked to their mobile phones and their acceptance of more sustainable behavioral patterns regarding their mobile, including return and recycling programmes.
Calculating MIPS 2.0
(2013)
The Wuppertal Institute developed, in the early 1990s, an input-oriented lifecycle-wide resource accounting method, the "Material Input per Service-Unit" concept (MIPS), today also referred to as "Material Footprint". The official handbook applicable to products, services, and processes describes a MS Excel-based sequential approach for calculating MIPS. Today's computing power, available to every researcher, and access to software and databases dedicated to lifecycle analysis make calculating MIPS using matrix inversion possible. This also opens up possibilities for enhancing MIPS-models programmatically: parameterizing the foreground and background systems, batch modeling for producing time series, and computational algorithms enhancing interpretation. The article provides (1) an overview of the methods and tools used for calculating MIPS from its origins to today, and (2) demonstrates some of the programmatically enhanced capabilities offered to MIPS-practitioners.
EXIOPOL (A New Environmental Accounting Framework Using Externality Data and Input–Output Tools for Policy Analysis) was a European Union (EU)-funded project creating a detailed, global, multiregional environmentally extended Supply and Use table (MR EE SUT) of 43 countries, 129 sectors, 80 resources, and 40 emissions. We sourced primary SUT and input–output tables from Eurostat and non-EU statistical offices. We harmonized and detailed them using auxiliary national accounts data and co-efficient matrices. Imports were allocated to countries of exports using United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database trade shares. Optimization procedures removed imbalances in these detailing and trade linking steps. Environmental extensions were added from various sources. We calculated the EU footprint of final consumption with resulting MR EE SUT. EU policies focus mainly on energy and carbon footprints. We show that the EU land, water, and material footprint abroad is much more relevant, and should be prioritized in the EU's environmental product and trade policies.
Apart from the much-debated question of what legal form the 2015 climate agreement is supposed to have, another core issue is the substantive content of countries' commitments. While the climate regime has so far mostly been based on emission targets, literature has identified a broad range of other possible types of mitigation commitments, such as technology targets, emission price commitments, or commitments to specific policies and measures (PAMs). The nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) submitted by developing countries under the Cancún Agreements also show a broad range of different forms of participation. This article surveys the possible commitment types that have so far been discussed in literature and in the UNFCCC negotiations and assesses their respective advantages and disadvantages against a set of criteria: environmental effectiveness, cost effectiveness, distributional aspects and institutional feasibility. The article finds that no commitment option provides a silver bullet. All options have several advantages but also disadvantages. The environmentally most effective way forward may lie in pursuing a multi-dimensional approach, combining emission targets with other commitment types to compensate for the drawbacks of the emission-based approach. However, such an approach would also increase complexity, both in terms of the negotiations and in terms of implementation and administration.
Among the factors that decelerate progress of CCS demonstration and deployment is the lack of public acceptance of local projects in Germany as well as in other countries. The study presented here aims to take the issue of public CCS perceptions further by empirically investigating the relevance of different specifications of the three main steps of the CCS chain, i.e. capture, transport and storage. An experimental approach is chosen and applied in an online survey with a representative sample from Germany with 1830 participants. With regard to possible CO2 sources we varied whether the CO2 of a specific setting is captured i) as part of an energy-intensive industry process (e.g. production of steel or cement), ii) from a power plant running on biomass, or iii) a coal-fired power plant. For transport, half of the settings described made reference to transport of CO2 via pipelines, the other half did not provide information about transport. With regard to storage the setting descriptions i) either explained that CO2 can be stored in saline aquifers, ii) can be used to enhance gas production from an emptying natural gas field or iii) can be stored in a depleted natural gas field. We find that overall the average of the ratings for perception of the settings fall into the neutral part of the answering scale. If the source of CO2 is a coal-fired power plant the setting is perceived less positively than if it includes biomass or industry. A significant interaction effect between transport and storage specifications is observed. This points out that storage in saline aquifers is perceived more negatively than a combination with enhanced gas recovery while storage in a depleted natural gas field is rated less positively if a pipeline is mentioned and more positively if no transport option is mentioned.
A desirable future critically depends on our ability to ensure the supply of key resources while simultaneously respecting planetary boundaries. This paper looks at the potential implications of living within the "safe operating space" for people, business and the economy. It develops a positive vision of the future based on three pillars: a safe and fair use of global resources, a sustainable society, and a transformed economy. We review and build on recent sustainability visions to develop a holistic reflection on what life in 2050 could look like, and explore the key changes in the economy needed to get there. In particular we show that resource efficiency requires a systemic shift in values, innovation, governance and management regimes. We present a bold vision for Europe underlined by indicators and targets, explore transition challenges to getting there and conclude with a list of key policies needed for overcoming challenges and reaching the vision.
The food and agricultural sector will face numerous challenges in the next decades, arising from changing global production and consumption patterns, which currently go along with high resource use, causing ecological and socio-economic impacts. The aim of this paper is to illustrate and evaluate the practical applicability of the Hot Spot Analysis methodology in the context of supply chain management in companies. The HSA is a method to identify social and ecological problems along the entire life cycle of a product. Special emphasis is put on a customized implementation in the value chain beef of McDonald's Germany. The HSA of McDonald's beef value chain shows that the main ecological problems arise in the phase of raw material extraction, whereas the main social problems can be identified in the phase of slaughtering. Finally, the paper shows potentials and shortcomings of such a customized application and how the results can be implemented in the sustainability management of a company.
The paper examines policies and measures that promote the usage of pedelecs and that contribute to climate friendly passenger transportation thereby. As pedelecs allow the rider to pedal at lower efforts, pedelecs provide the potential to increase the share of bicycle trips in metropolitan regions with hilly landscapes and with a significant share of medium commuting distances. The paper develops attitude-based mobility types and defines their specific pedelec affinity based upon differentiated reasons to use a pedelec. Thereafter policies and measures are examined that foster purchase and usage of pedelecs, and factors influencing the modal behaviour of (potential) attitude-based target groups are defined. Quantification of climate protection effects is conducted based on two scenarios for the German city of Wuppertal, a city known for its steep slopes. The first scenario assumes business as usual, and the second scenario is based on the introduction of ambitious policies and measures to encourage purchase and usage of pedelecs. Following a mixed-method approach, qualitative scenario assumptions are calculated by a quantitative model, which incorporates the analyses on attitude-based mobility types respective pedelec affinities.The results indicate that ambitious promotion of pedelecs significantly contributes to climate change mitigation. Compared to business as usual, ambitious policies and measures to purchase and use pedelecs reduce CO2-emissions of passenger transport in Wuppertal by 11 per cent in 2050. A spatially inclusive and comprehensive 30 kph speed limit proves to be particularly effective. In the scenario of ambitious promotion of pedelecs, interventions solely fostering the purchase of pedelecs significantly increase the modal share of pedelecs, whereas in a business as usual case such efforts remain ineffective. The traditional bicycle profits from the promotion of pedelecs, but its increased usage does not bring about similar climate protection effects.
The 2010 UN climate conference in Cancún emphasized that "Parties should, in all climate change related actions, fully respect human rights". However, so far there is no further guidance. This article discusses the relevant legal human rights norms and two case studies from the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The first case (Bajo Aguán, Honduras) shows that the current absence of any international safeguards can lead to registration of highly problematic projects. The second case (Olkaria, Kenya) suggests that safeguards, introduced here as a side effect of World Bank involvement, can have a positive impact, but that it is necessary to have them based on human rights. It therefore seems recommendable that the UN climate regime develop mandatory human rights safeguards. In addition or alternatively, individual buyer countries or groups of countries, such as the European Union, could introduce their own additional requirements for CDM projects.
Global climate
(2014)
In what has become normal procedure at the international climate negotiations, the 2013 United Nations climate conference in Warsaw (the nineteenth Conference of the Parties (COP 19) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the ninth Conference of Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP 9)) once again seemed on the brink of collapse and concluded more than one day behind schedule, in the evening of Saturday 23 November 2013. However, on most of the key issues it made only scant progress.
This report lays out the main developments in Warsaw and assesses the main outcomes. It starts with the discussions under the Durban Platform on developing a new comprehensive climate agreement by 2015 and increasing short-term ambition and subsequently covers the issues relating to near-term implementation of previous decisions in the areas of emission reductions and transparency, adaptation, loss and damage, finance and technology.
The present study investigates and compares the public perception of CO2 offshore storage, CO2 onshore storage and CO2 transport via pipeline in Germany nationwide and in two coastal regions. For this purpose, three representative surveys were carried out and analyzed with the methods of descriptive statistics and ordinal regressions. The results of our descriptive statistical analyses show clear regional differences with regard to self-reported awareness, factual knowledge, risk perceptions and general attitudes towards CO2 offshore/onshore storage and CO2 transport via pipeline. With regard to the public perception of the two storage options - offshore and onshore - no major differences could be identified: both are hardly accepted by the German public. In comparison to CO2 offshore storage/CO2 onshore storage, the attitudes towards CO2 transport via pipeline were perceptibly more positive in all regions. Our regression analyses revealed that the perceptions of the personal and societal risks of CO2 transport via pipeline/CO2 offshore storage/CO2 onshore storage as well as the perceptions of the personal and societal benefits of CCS are the most important direct determinants of general attitudes towards CO2 transport via pipeline, CO2 offshore storage and CO2 onshore storage.
The results presented in this article illustrate how the local public was informed on specific Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) projects by regional newspapers in Germany. The analyzed articles were published in four daily newspapers within the German regions where four CO2 onshore storage projects took place or have been planned. The articles were published between 2007 and 2011. In total, 1,115 newspaper articles about the four CO2 onshore storage projects were gathered and analyzed both qualitatively and quantitatively. Our results showed that the regional media coverage of CCS projects in Germany reached peaks in 2009 and 2010. The main topics changed within the media coverage and it is worth mentioning to what extent the media coverage of CCS disregarded topics with regard to economic, technical, ecological or scientific aspects on CCS. The overall evaluation of CCS within the articles is negative. While commercial CCS projects received more negative evaluation across newspaper articles; opinions about the research and industry project Ketzin were more neutral.
Policy evaluation is widely considered important for assessing policies for effectiveness and impact. Municipalities are among the political actors implementing energy and climate policy. Yet, few municipalities have introduced adequate instruments to monitor the effectiveness of their actions. Often, municipal actors consider local greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories to be sufficient to monitor the impact of their actions. This paper points out why the expectations placed on local GHG inventories as a monitoring instrument can rarely be met in practice. On the basis of German examples, it shall be shown that a thorough calculation of actual local energy and GHG reductions attributable to local efforts is often only partially possible, and is complicated by external factors. A supplementary approach to the top-down method is to evaluate local programmes from the bottom-up. This paper discusses efforts to develop an instrument for a bottom-up monitoring of the city of Hamburg's Climate Action Plan.
The lack of suitable tools to assess sustainable mobility measures' costs, benefits and overall impacts is a significant factor impeding their implementation. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is often applied to large-scale infrastructure projects, but does not capture all relevant socio-economic impacts. Small-scale but potentially highly cost-effective measures often do not have the critical mass to warrant a thorough cost-benefit analysis. This paper reviews existing assessment methodologies, including their advantages, limitations and application to different urban mobility measures, and current assessment practice in cities based on survey results. Based on these analyses, a holistic approach for project appraisal is proposed, consisting of aspects of a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) and CBA and applicable to a variety of urban mobility measures.
Although there are already some qualification offers available for enterprises to support resource efficiency innovations, the high potentials that can be identified especially for small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) have not been activated until now. As successful change lies in the hands of humans, the main aim of vocational education has to be the promotion of organisational and cultural changes in the enterprises. As there is already a small but increasing number of enterprises that perform very well in resource efficiency innovations one question arises: What are typical characteristics of those enterprises? Leaning on a good-practice approach, the project "ResourceCulture" is going to prove or falsify the hypothesis that enterprises being successful with resource efficiency innovations have a specific culture of trust, which substantially contributes to innovation processes, or even initially enables them. Detailed empirical field research will light up which correlations between resource efficiency, innovation and cultures of trust can be found and will offer important aspects for the improvement of management instruments and qualification concepts for workplace training. The project seizes qualification needs that were likewise mentioned by enterprises and consultants, regarding the implementation of resource efficiency. This article - based on first empirical field research results - derives preliminary indications for the design of the qualification module for the target groups resource efficiency consultants and managers. On this basis and in order to implement "ResourceCulture" conceptual and methodological starting points for workplace training are outlined.
Despite rising prices for natural resources during the past 30 years, global consumption of natural resources is still growing. This leads to ecological, economical and social problems. So far, however, limited effort has been made to decrease the natural resource use of goods and services. While resource efficiency is already on the political agenda (EU and national resource strategies), there are still substantial knowledge gaps on the effectiveness of resource efficiency improvement strategies in different fields. In this context and within the project "Material Efficiency and Resource Conservation", the natural resource use of 22 technologies, products and strategies was calculated and their resource efficiency potential analysed. In a preliminary literature- and expert-based identification process, over 250 technologies, strategies, and products, which are regarded as resource efficient, were identified. Out of these, 22 subjects with high resource efficiency potential were selected. They cover a wide range of relevant technologies, products and strategies, such as energy supply and storage, Green IT, transportation, foodstuffs, agricultural engineering, design strategies, lightweight construction, as well as the concept "Using Instead of Owning". To assess the life-cycle-wide resource use of the selected subjects, the material footprint has been applied as a reliable indicator. In addition, sustainability criteria on a qualitative basis were considered. The results presented in this paper show significant resource efficiency potential for many technologies, products and strategies.
A decent, or sufficient, lifestyle is largely considered an important objective in terms of a sustainable future. However, there can be strongly varying definitions of what a decent lifestyle means. From a social sustainability point of view, a decent lifestyle can be defined as the minimum level of consumption ensuring an acceptable quality of life. From an ecological sustainability point of view, a decent lifestyle can be defined as a lifestyle that does not exceed the carrying capacity of nature in terms of natural resource use. The paper presents results of a study on the natural resource use of 18 single households belonging to the lowest income decile in Finland. The yearly "material footprint" of each household was calculated on the basis of the data gathered in a questionnaire and two interviews. The results show that the natural resource use of the participating households was lower than the one of the average consumer. Furthermore, 12 of 18 households had a smaller material footprint than the "decent minimum" reference budget defined by a consumer panel. However, the resource use of all the households and lifestyles studied is still higher than long-term ecological sustainability would require. The paper concludes that the material footprint is a suitable approach for defining and measuring a decent lifestyle and provides valuable information on how to dematerialize societies towards sustainability.
It is widely accepted that environmental awareness is essential, yet does not inevitably lead to responsible use of resources. Additional factors on the individual level include the meaning constructed by the term "resources" and the individual and social norms that influence the relevant behavior. Current didactic concepts do not take into account such aspects. Therefore, this article uses a didactic-psychological approach for designing an educational concept for raising awareness for a responsible use of natural resources. Combining insights of environmental psychology and of constructivist didactics, a general principal of "norm-oriented interpretation learning" is outlined to enrich the didactic debate on responsible and efficient resource use. Based on the presentation of a qualifying module for resource efficiency consultants as a practical example of resource education, a new didactical approach, namely "open-didactic exploration" (short form: ODE) is introduced. The article discusses the theory-based elements of ODE and illustrates a step by step process for designing educational materials. This adds to the theoretical debate about a didactic design for resource oriented education. Furthermore, this method can be directly used by practitioners developing education and training material (e.g., teachers, trainers in vocational education). The Wuppertal Institute developed and applied this method in numerous projects. The conclusion and outlook discusses future expectations and scope of the introduced ODE method as a contribution to foster "norm-oriented interpretation learning", suggesting perspectives for further development.
Since in 1992 the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) has been held in Rio de Janeiro, efforts to achieve sustainable development appear to have made only insufficient progress, as the results of the 2012 follow-up conference show. One reason for this is that among the various paths to sustainability being discussed, the strategies enjoying greater support are those that continue to be committed to economic and material growth, this as opposed to those that question the growth paradigm. Among the latter are the sufficiency and subsistence approaches. The sufficiency approach delves into the causes and (supposed) boons of a continuous increase in material and immaterial goods. With the demand that individuals not always be forced to always want more, it points out a way to a structural transition in society. The subsistence approach, on the other hand, seeks to draft a path to greater autonomy and quality of life by strengthening regional, local or indi-vidual self-provisioning. To be in harmony with sustainability, it must be possible to freely choose the two ways of life; they must not be mandated by the authorities.
In contrast to the original investigation by William Stanley Jevons, compensations of energy savings due to improved energy efficiency are mostly analyzed by providing energy consumption or greenhouse gas emissions. In support of a sustainable resource management, this paper analyzes so-called rebound effects based on resource use. Material flows and associated expenditures by households allow for calculating resource intensities and marginal propensities to consume. Marginal propensities to consume are estimated from data of the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) in order to account for indirect rebound effects for food, housing and mobility. Resource intensities are estimated in terms of total material requirements per household final consumption expenditures along the Classification of Individual Consumption according to Purpose (COICOP). Eventually, rebound effects are indicated on the basis of published saving scenarios in resource and energy demand for Germany. In sum, compensations due to rebound effects are lowest for food while the highest compensations are induced for mobility. This is foremost the result of a relatively high resource intensity of food and a relatively low resource intensity in mobility. Findings are provided by giving various propensity scenarios in order to cope with income differences in Germany. The author concludes that policies on resource conservation need to reconsider rebound effects under the aspect of social heterogeneity.
Sustainability policy in the early 2000s is based on and therefore influenced by scientific literature on "transition". The importance of this link has inspired the authors to explore the structure of cooperating authors and citation networks in the field. In order to understand "transition" literature, we compare it with an alternative term for change, "transformation", which is also used in the context of socio-technical shifts towards sustainability. We expose the different structures of these fields with an overview of keywords, key references, key authors, and the coherence between references and authors. By analysing co-author and citation networks, we find large differences in these groups of documents. The transition literature is characterised by a large network of directly and indirectly cooperating authors with clear clusters; transformation literature contains smaller author networks. Key transition authors are predominantly Dutch. They repeatedly write together and cite each other's work. The transition literature is tightly knit with high degrees of internal references and a clearly distinguishable core. Transformation literature has fewer connections between authors and articles. The connecting articles, each with many global citations, form its basis. This analysis can be used as a step to continue the debate on the role of transition and transformation literature in sustainability and renewable energy policy. The transformation literature teaches us that older streams of thought are still relevant and may be used as "glue" for linking change with respect to sustainable energy to wider developments. Rediscovering existing literature in new combinations may lead to promising new views on sustainable energy.
The current flow of carbon for the production, use, and waste management of polymer-based products is still mostly linear from the lithosphere to the atmosphere with rather low rates of material recycling. In view of a limited future supply of biomass, this article outlines the options to further develop carbon recycling (C-REC). The focus is on carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and use for synthesis of platform chemicals to produce polymers. CO2 may be captured from exhaust gases after combustion or fermentation of waste in order to establish a C-REC system within the technosphere. As a long-term option, an external C-REC system can be developed by capturing atmospheric CO2. A central role may be expected from renewable methane (or synthetic natural gas), which is increasingly being used for storage and transport of energy, but may also be used for renewable carbon supply for chemistry. The energy input for the C-REC processes can come from wind and solar systems, in particular, power for the production of hydrogen, which is combined with CO2 to produce various hydrocarbons. Most of the technological components for the system already exist, and, first modules for renewable fuel and polymer production systems are underway in Germany. This article outlines how the system may further develop over the medium to long term, from a piggy-back add-on flow system toward a self-carrying recycling system, which has the potential to provide the material and energy backbone of future societies. A critical bottleneck seems to be the capacity and costs of renewable energy supply, rather than the costs of carbon capture.
The main objective of this article is to evaluate CO2 mitigation potential and to calculate costs avoided by the use of different CO2 mitigation technologies in China's cement sector, namely energy efficiency improvements, use of alternative fuels, clinker substitution and carbon capture and storage (CCS). Three scenarios are designed based on the projection of cement output and technology development over the next 40 years (2010–2050). 2.5, 4.7 and 4.3 Gt tonnes of CO2 will be saved totally in basic scenario and two low carbon scenarios up to 2050. By comparing these technologies along the scenarios, it can be concluded that CO2 emissions can mainly be reduced by energy efficiency improvements and use of alternative fuels. Clinker substitution, which reduces the clinker-to-cement ratio as well as energy intensity, results in significant cost advantages. CCS, including post-combustion capture and oxy-fuel combustion capture, could play an important role in the capture of CO2 in the cement industry, and is expected to be in commercial use by 2030.
Prospects of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in India's power sector : an integrated assessment
(2014)
Objective: The aim of the present article is to conduct an integrated assessment in order to explore whether CCS could be a viable technological option for significantly reducing future CO2 emissions in India. Methods: In this paper, an integrated approach covering five assessment dimensions is chosen. However, each dimension is investigated using specific methods (graphical abstract).
Results: The most crucial precondition that must be met is a reliable storage capacity assessment based on site-specific geological data since only rough figures concerning the theoretical capacity exist at present. Our projection of different trends of coal-based power plant capacities up to 2050 ranges between 13 and 111 Gt of CO2 that may be captured from coal-fired power plants to be built by 2050. If very optimistic assumptions about the country's CO2 storage potential are applied, 75 Gt of CO2 could theoretically be stored as a result of matching these sources with suitable sinks. If a cautious approach is taken by considering the country's effective storage potential, only a fraction may potentially be sequestered. In practice, this potential will decrease further with the impact of technical, legal, economic and social acceptance factors. Further constraints may be the delayed commercial availability of CCS in India, a significant barrier to achieving the economic viability of CCS, an expected net maximum reduction rate of the power plant’s greenhouse gas emissions of 71-74%, an increase of most other environmental and social impacts, and a lack of governmental, industrial or societal CCS advocates.
Conclusion and practice implications: Several preconditions need to be fulfilled if CCS is to play a future role in reducing CO2 emissions in India, the most crucial one being to determine reliable storage capacity figures. In order to overcome these barriers, the industrialised world would need to make a stronger commitment in terms of CCS technology demonstration, cooperation and transfer to emerging economies like India. The integrated assessment might also be extended by a comparison with other low-carbon technology options to draw fully valid conclusions on the most suitable solution for a sustainable future energy supply in India.
The 2014 United Nations Climate Change Conference had been scheduled from 1 to 12 December in Lima/Peru. While in the run-up to the conference, China and the US in a surprise bilateral move had announced plans to cut greenhouse gas emissions that exceeded expectations, the conference was characterised once again by a deep division between key players from the former so-called "developed" and "developing" world. The negotiations thus took 32 hours longer than planned and ended on Sunday morning at 1.22 am. More importantly, the conference failed almost completely to resolve the tasks it was supposed to do in order to prepare the last round of negotiations before next year's conference in Paris 2015, which is supposed to deliver a comprehensive future climate agreement. A team of researchers from the Wuppertal Institute attended the conference and have compiled a first assessment of the results.
The limited data availability, transparency and harmonisation in environmental assessments of products are bottlenecks for improved environmental and sustainability governance. Despite the progressive developments of information and communication systems, reliable, accurate, up-to-date data for assessing the resource use of products and services is still lacking. Resource accounting systems often have limited scope on single companies, processes or products. This paper presents an approach for an automated bottom-up accounting system for measuring resource efficiency at product and service level. It is based on a global collaborative network of resource accounting nodes connected for the accounting of natural resources use for products and services. Using an Internet-based service-oriented architecture, relevant and timely data is passed from supplier to customer recursively through the whole value chain to produce an "ecoCost" for each product or service. This conceptual paper reflects first experiences from partners of the myEcoCost project funded by European Commission (www.myecocost.com).
At current primary steel production levels, the iron and steel industry will fail to meet the 80% emission reduction target without introduction of breakthrough technologies (Wörtler et al., 2013: 19). The current research analyses the technical and economical long-term potential of innovative primary steel production technologies in Germany throughout 2100. Techno-economic models are used to simulate three innovative ore-based steelmaking routes verses the reference blast furnace route (BF-BOF). The innovative routes in focus are blast furnace with CCS (BF-CCS), hydrogen direct reduction (H-DR), and iron ore electrolysis (EW). Energy and mass flows for the production of one tonne of crude steel (CS) are combined with hypothetical price, cost, and revenue data to evaluate the production routes economically, technically, and environmentally. This is a purely theoretical analysis and hence further external factors that may influence practical implementation or profitability are not considered.
Different future developments are considered by using three scenarios, representing an ambitious, a moderate, and a conservative transformation of the German energy sector. In general, looking into the future bares various uncertainties which should be reflected in a suitable manner.
According to the present scenario analysis, chances are that with rising prices for coal and CO2 allowances BF-BOF and even BF-CCS become unprofitable by mid-century. With a high share of renewable energy sources and high prices for CO2 allowances, H-DR and EW become economically attractive in the second half of the current century, when BF-based routes are long unprofitable. Energy and raw material efficiency is significantly higher for H-DR and EW and furthermore, the 80% reduction target by 2050 can be achieved in the ambitious scenario. However, high investment costs and high dependency on electricity prices prohibit a profitable implementation before 2030–2040 without further subsidies. EW is the most energy and resource efficient production route. Since continuous electricity is needed for the continuous operation, the electricity costs are 20–40% higher than for H-DR (with high-capacity hydrogen storage units). Even though hydrogen production implies efficiency losses compared to the EW route, the decoupling of hydrogen production from continuous operation of the steel plant through hydrogen storage offers the opportunity to use cheap excess renewable electricity. This makes the H-DR economically and environmentally the most attractive route and provides a crucial contribution to stabilize the grid and to store excess energy in a 100% renewable energy system.
Energy for transport
(2014)
Global transportation energy use is steeply rising, mainly as a result of increasing population and economic activity. Petroleum fuels remain the dominant energy source, reflecting advantages such as high energy density, low cost, and market availability. The movement of people and freight makes a major contribution to economic development and social well-being, but it also negatively impacts climate change, air quality, health, social cohesion, and safety. Following a review published 20 years ago in the Annual Review of Environment and Resources (then named the Annual Review of Energy and the Environment) by Lee Schipper, we examine current trends and potential futures, revising several major global transport/energy reports. There are significant opportunities to slow travel growth and improve efficiency. Alternatives to petroleum exist but have different characteristics in terms of availability, cost, distribution, infrastructure, storage, and public acceptability. The transition to low-carbon equitable and sustainable transport will take time but can be fostered by numerous short- and medium-term strategies that would benefit energy security, health, productivity, and sustainability.
The concept Material Input per Service Unit (MIPS) was developed 20 years ago as a measure for the overall natural resource use of products and services. The material intensity analysis is used to calculate the material footprint of any economic activities in production and consumption. Environmental assessment has developed extensive databases for life cycle inventories, which can additionally be adopted for material intensity analysis. Based on practical experience in measuring material footprints on the micro level, this paper presents the current state of research and methodology development: it shows the international discussions on the importance of accounting methodologies to measure progress in resource efficiency. The MIPS approach is presented and its micro level application for assessing value chains, supporting business management, and operationalizing sustainability strategies is discussed. Linkages to output-oriented Life Cycle Assessment as well as to Material Flow Analysis (MFA) at the macro level are pointed out. Finally we come to the conclusion that the MIPS approach provides relevant knowledge on resource and energy input at the micro level for fact-based decision-making in science, policy, business, and consumption.
In many developing countries large parts of the population are negatively affected by the lack of access to clean and affordable energy. Providing sustainable energy services to these people has been acknowledged as a key component to reduce poverty. One form of development assistance to address the needs of the energy-poor at the local level are small-scale renewable energy projects. Like all development interventions, these energy projects are not intended to produce short-term outputs, but to create long-term impacts. Thus, it has become increasingly important to evaluate and accurately assess their sustainability. But despite the widely recognized need to identify successes factors and explain failure only few studies exist that address the sustainability of small-scale of energy development efforts post implementation. Against this background the paper presents the results of a post-evaluation of 23 projects supported via the Sustainable Energy Project Support (SEPS) scheme of the WISIONS initiative run by the Wuppertal Institute. The analysis provides insights on the influence that socio-economic, environmental, geographic and gender factors can have on the sustainability of small-scale renewable energy projects in developing countries.
The paper suggests a sustainable material footprint of eight tons, per person, in a year as a resource cap target for household consumption in Finland. This means an 80% (factor 5) reduction from the present Finnish average. The material footprint is used as a synonym to the Total Material Requirement (TMR) calculated for products and activities. The paper suggests how to allocate the sustainable material footprint to different consumption components on the basis of earlier household studies, as well as other studies, on the material intensity of products, services, and infrastructures. It analyzes requirements, opportunities, and challenges for future developments in technology and lifestyle, also taking into account that future lifestyles are supposed to show a high degree of diversity. The targets and approaches are discussed for the consumption components of nutrition, housing, household goods, mobility, leisure activities, and other purposes. The paper states that a sustainable level of natural resource use by households is achievable and it can be roughly allocated to different consumption components in order to illustrate the need for a change in lifestyles. While the absolute material footprint of all the consumption components will have to decrease, the relative share of nutrition, the most basic human need, in the total material footprint is expected to rise, whereas much smaller shares than at present are proposed for housing and especially mobility. For reducing material resource use to the sustainable level suggested, both social innovations, and technological developments are required.
The buildings sector accounts for more than 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Despite the well-known economic viability of many energy-efficient renovation measures which offer great potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and meeting climate protection targets, there is a relatively low level of implementation. We performed a citation network analysis in order to identify papers at the research front and intellectual base on energy-efficient renovation in four areas: technical options, understanding decisions, incentive instruments, and models and simulation. The literature was reviewed in order to understand what is needed to sufficiently increase the number of domestic energy-efficient renovations and to identify potential research gaps. Our findings show that the literature on energy-efficient renovation gained considerable momentum in the last decade, but lacks a deep understanding of the uncertainties surrounding economic aspects and non-economic factors driving renovation decisions of homeowners. The analysis indicates that the (socio-economic) energy saving potential and profitability of energy-efficient renovation measures is lower than generally expected. It is suggested that this can be accounted for by the failure to understand and consider the underpinning influences of energy-consuming behaviour in calculations. Homeowners׳ decisions to renovate are shaped by an alliance of economic and non-economic goals. Therefore, existing incentives, typically targeting the economic viability of measures, have brought little success. A deeper understanding of the decisions of homeowners is needed and we suggest that a simulation model which maps the decision-making processes of homeowners may result in refining existing instruments or developing new innovative mechanisms to tackle the situation.
The diversification of the national electricity generation mix has risen to the top of Tunisia's energy planning agenda. Presently, natural gas provides 96% of the primary energy for electric power generation, but declining domestic gas reserves and a soaring electricity demand are urgently calling for alternative fuel strategies. Currently discussed diversification options include the introduction of coal and nuclear power plants and/or an increased use of renewable energies. This article presents a methodology to assess different electricity system transformation strategies. By combining an electricity market model with a subsequent multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), we evaluate five power mix scenarios regarding power generation costs as well as non-economic dimensions such as energy security, environmental impact and social welfare effects. Based on criteria valuations obtained during consultations with Tunisian stakeholders, a final, best-ranking electricity scenario was selected, consisting of 15% wind, 15% solar and 70% natural gas-generated electricity in the national power mix by 2030.
Access to sustainable and affordable energy services is a crucial factor in reducing poverty in developing countries. In particular, small-scale and community-based renewable energy projects are recognized as important forms of development assistance for reaching the energy poor. However, to date only a few empirical evaluations exist which analyze and compare the impact of these projects on local living conditions and their sustainability ex-post implementation.
To better understand the impacts and the conditions that influence sustainability of these projects, the research presented in this paper evaluated 23 local development projects post implementation. By applying an standardized evaluation design to a cross-sectional sample in terms of renewable energy sources (solar, wind, biomass, hydro), user needs (electricity, food preparation, lighting, productive uses), community management models, finance mechanisms and geographical locations, the review results provide valuable insights on the underlying conditions that influence the success or failure of these small-scale local energy interventions. The empirical evidence suggests that the sustainability of small-scale energy implementations (≤100 kW) in developing countries is determined by the same factors, independent of the socio-cultural, political and ecological context. These findings allow to better predict the long-term success of small sustainable energy projects in developing countries, this can help to improve project designs and increase the certainty for future investment decisions.
Living Labs for Sustainable Development aim to integrate users and actors for the successful generation of low-resource innovations in production-consumption systems. This paper investigates potentials of and measures towards the realization of a German Living Lab infrastructure to support actor-integrated sustainability research and innovations in Germany. Information was primarily derived from extensive dialog with experts from the fields of innovation, sustainable development and the Living Lab community (operators, users, etc.), which was facilitated through interviews and workshops. A status quo analysis revealed that, generally, the sustainability and Living Lab communities are hardly intertwined. Twelve Living Labs that explicitly consider sustainability aspects were identified. The application fields "Living and Working", "Town, Region and Mobility", and “Retail and Gastronomy" were identified as particularly suitable for investigation in Living Labs and highly relevant in terms of resource efficiency. Based on the analyses of drivers and barriers and SWOT, keystones for the development of a research infrastructure for user integrated development of sustainable products and services were formulated. Suggested strategies and measures include targeted funding programs for actor-integrated, socio-technical research based on a Living Lab network, a communication campaign, and programs to foster networking and the inclusion of SMEs.
In recent decades, better data and methods have become available for understanding the complex functioning of cities and their impacts on sustainability. This review synthesizes the recent developments in concepts and methods being used to measure the impacts of cities on environmental sustainability. It differentiates between a dominant trend in research literature that concentrates on the accounting and allocation of greenhouse gas emissions and energy use to cities and a reemergence of studies that focus on the direct and indirect material and resource flows in cities. The methodological approaches reviewed may consider cities as either producers or consumers, and all recognize that urban environmental impacts can be local, regional, or global. As well as giving an overview of the methodological debates, we examine the implications of the different approaches for policy and the challenges these approaches face in their application on the field.
Generating social practices
(2014)
Changing consumer behaviour is key to reducing the environmental effects of industrialised societies. Social practice theories provide an integrated approach to understanding consumer behaviour. The mechanisms underlying the emergence and diffusion of social practices are however until now poorly understood. This paper presents a conceptual framework and an abstract agent-based simulation model for generating social practices which use and extend approaches from social practice theories. The main results are twofold. First, the simulation model is able to generate social practices, what confirms that the conceptual framework captures relevant elements and processes. Second, a new mechanism for behavioural lock-in is identified that provides additional insights into the widely acknowledged challenge of changing social practices and respective consumption.
There are a variety of economic and ecological benefits to increased resource efficiency. Social, institutional and technical innovations can all contribute towards efficiency increases. Companies face different hurdles in fostering such innovation. Small and medium-sized companies are subject to specific constraints that may prevent them from benefiting from innovation-induced resource efficiency improvements. Qualitative interviews were conducted among German small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and intermediaries to identify barriers for resource efficiency innovations and to elaborate a policy mix at the federal level that could help SMEs to overcome these. We found five major barriers to resource efficiency innovations in German SMEs, comprising deficits in innovation culture, inter-firm cooperation along the value chain, finance, awareness and take-up of government funds. We propose a distinct policy mix as a response to this situation. The policy mix comprises the interlocking and synergistic elements of government funding schemes, innovation agents and innovation laboratories.
Crowdsourcing as a method of transdisciplinary research : tapping the full potential of participants
(2014)
Within the scope of citizen science projects, crowdsourcing has already expanded into scientific application areas. In this, its scientific potential is only partly exhausted, however.
It will be shown that transdisciplinary research is made up in content and structural aspects in such a way that crowdsourcing can fully unfold as a research method through varied participation possibilities, reflective processes and use of contemporary technical possibilities. Furthermore, mutual learning, understanding and the dissemination of knowledge strongly profits from effects that even result automatically in this context.
The scientific application of crowdsourcing represented here makes high demands on project management, but it is expected to turn out as an effective research method precisely in the area of transdisciplinary research.
The availability of life cycle inventories is one of the biggest challenges for life cycle wide environmental assessment. There are several life cycle assessment (LCA) databases providing inventory data as well as resource and emission profiles of processes for impact assessment methods like ReCiPe or IMPACT 2002+. But the use of these LCA databases for input oriented environmental assessment is very limited as they cover only a part of all relevant input flows. The paper describes current challenges when calculating the input oriented Material Input per Service Unit (MIPS) indicators based on LCA inventory data from the Ecoinvent database. Propositions are made how to address these challenges. As a conclusion, further need of research to reach a full compatibility of LCA databases and the MIPS concept is pointed out.
The European Waste Framework Directive has defined waste prevention as top of the waste hierarchy meaning nothing less than a fundamental change of the sociotechnical system of waste infrastructures with all its economic, legal, social and cultural elements. Based on an empirical analysis of more than 300 waste prevention measures this paper assesses which prevention effects can realistically be achieved by applying the measures described in the German waste prevention programme or in those of other EU member states. Taking into account waste streams like packaging, food waste, bulky waste and production waste the results show that waste generation is not an unavoidable evil but can be significantly reduced at current level of technology.
Purpose - Since the registration of the first clean development mechanism (CDM) project in 2004, the CDM has seen a dynamic expansion: the CDM pipeline currently comprises 6,725 projects generating 2.73 billion certified emission reductions (CERs) up to 2012. These CERs result in a substantial financial flow from Annex I to Non-Annex I countries. But CDM projects also result in investments in low carbon technologies, a substantial share of which is focused on the energy sector. The total installed capacity of all CDM projects amounts to 288,944 MW. However, the CDM is not widely taken up in Africa. This holds true for Africa's share in the CDM project pipeline (2.62 per cent), for Africa's share in CERs generated up to 2012 (3.58 per cent) and for the normalized CERs per capita, per country. Two hypothesizes are commonly discussed: first, the continent features low per capita emissions and low abatement potentials. Second, African countries may be hampered by weak institutional frameworks. This article reviews both hypotheses and presents new empirical data. The paper aims to discuss these issues.
Design/methodology/approach - Investigating the greenhouse gas (GHS) abatement potential of 16 energy-related sectors for 11 selected least developed countries in sub-Saharan Africa shows a total theoretical CDM potential of 128.6 million CERs per year. Analyzing investment indicators confirms that most countries are impeded by below average investment conditions.
Findings - It is concluded that Africa offers a considerable range of substantial abatement potentials. However, the weak institutional framework is limiting the uptake of the CDM in Africa. This is underpinned by an analysis which shows if a CDM sector has high investment cost, Africa will have a low share in the sector. If the sector has low investment needs per CER, Africa's share in the CDM sector will be bigger. Investment needs and Africa's share in the pipeline feature a negative correlation.
Research limitations/implications - Supporting CDM development in Africa should not be constraint to technical assistance. It will be crucial to develop an integrated financing approach, comprising the CDM as a co-financing mechanism, to overcome the institutional challenges.
Originality/value - Until today, there are few empirical studies that use concrete criteria and indicators to show why the CDM is underrepresented in Africa. The work presented here contributes to filling this gap.
This paper analyses the results of the climate conference in Lima 2014 in the light of the coming climate summit in Paris by the end of this year (COP21). The authors from the Wuppertal Institute make recommendations for the improvement of the current cooperation in the context of the climate convention and they suggest to complement the existing UN regime with a club of forerunner countries in order to provide new breath for international climate policy.
Many countries have started to develop policy programs for the sustainable use of natural resources. Indicators and targets can cover both a territorial and a life-cycle-wide global perspective. This article focuses on how a safe operating space for global material resource use can be outlined based on existing economy-wide material flow indicators. It reflects on issues such as scale and systems perspective, as the choice of indicators determines the target "valves" of the socio-industrial metabolism. It considers environmental pressures and social aspects of safe and fair resource use. Existing proposals for resource consumption targets are reviewed, partially revisited, and taken as a basis to outline potential target values for a safe operating space for the extraction and use of minerals and biomass by final consumption. A potential sustainability corridor is derived with the Total Material Consumption of abiotic resources ranging from 6 to 12 t/person, the Total Material Consumption of biotic resources not exceeding 2 t/person, and the Raw Material Consumption of used biotic and abiotic materials ranging from 3 to 6 t/person until 2050. For policy, a "10-2-5 target triplet" can provide orientation, when the three indicators are assigned values of 10, 2, and 5 t/person, respectively.
Considerable efficiency gains can be made costeffectively to set the transport sector on a sustainable development pathway. They can be achieved through already available technologies and practices, which will not only reduce greenhouse gas emissions significantly, but also generate social, environmental and economic co-benefits. However, progress in the take-up of low-carbon mobility measures substantially lags behind the potential. A number of barriers contribute to this lack of uptake. This paper explores those barriers by focusing on vehicle fuel efficiency in particular, but will also touch on the wider policy framework to improve the efficiency of the transport sector and reduce emissions. The paper suggests that a combination of fuel pricing, differentiated vehicle taxation, vehicle standards and the provision of modal choice are necessary to minimise rebound effects and significantly curb transport sector greenhouse gas emissions at low- or even negative cost.
Lessons for model use in transition research : a survey and comparison with other research areas
(2015)
The use of models to study the dynamics of transitions is challenging because of several aspects of transitions, notably complexity, multi-domain and multi-level interactions. These challenges are shared by other research areas that extensively make use of models. In this article we survey experiences and methodological approaches developed in the research areas of social-ecological modeling, integrated assessment, and environmental modeling, and derive lessons to be learnt for model use in transition studies. In order to account for specific challenges associated with different kinds of model applications we classify models according to their uses: for understanding transitions, for providing case-specific policy advice, and for facilitating stakeholder processes. The assessment reveals promising research directions for transition modeling, such as model-to-model analysis, pattern-oriented modeling, advanced sensitivity analysis, development of a shared conceptual framework, and use of modeling protocols.
Urbanization and climate change are amongst the greatest challenges of the 21st century. In the "Low Carbon Future Cities" project (LCFC), three important problem dimensions are analysed: current and future GHG emissions and their mitigation (up to 2050); resource use and material flows; and vulnerability to climate change.
The industrial city of Wuxi has been the Chinese pilot city of the project. To establish the pathway for a low carbon future, it is crucial to understand the current situation and possible future developments. The paper presents the key results of the status quo analysis and the future scenario analysis carried out for Wuxi. Two scenarios are outlined. The Current Policy Scenario (CPS) shows the current most likely development in the area of energy demand and GHG emissions until 2050. Whereas the extra low carbon scenario (ELCS) assumes a significantly more ambitious implementation, it combines a market introduction of best available technologies with substantial behavioural change. All scenarios are composed of sub-scenarios for the selected key sectors.
Looking at the per capita emissions in Wuxi, the current levels are already high at around 12 tonnes CO2 per capita compared to Western European cities. Although Wuxi has developed a low carbon plan, the projected results under current policies (CPS) show that the total emissions would increase to 23.6 tonnes CO2 per capita by 2050. If the ELCS pathway was to be adopted, these CO2 emission levels could be reduced to 6.4 tonnes per capita by 2050.
Measuring progress towards sustainable development requires appropriate frameworks and databases. The System of Environmental-Economic Accounts (SEEA) is undergoing continuous refinement with these objectives in mind. In SEEA, there is a need for databases to encompass the global dimension of societal metabolism. In this paper, we focus on the latest effort to construct a global multi-regional input-output database (EXIOBASE) with a focus on environmentally relevant activities. The database and its broader analytical framework allows for the as yet most detailed insight into the production-related impacts and "footprints" of our consumption. We explore the methods used to arrive at the database, and some key relationships extracted from the database.
The current momentum in the electrification of the car fuels hope for a transition in mobility. However, electric vehicles have failed before and it is thus asked: What is the potential of e-mobility developing as a sustainable system innovation? In order to deal with this challenge analytically, a theoretical framework is developed: the concepts of transformative capacity of a new technology (do electric vehicles trigger "social" innovations, e.g. new business models or use patterns?) and system adaptability (how stable is the mobility regime?) are introduced and the issue of sustainability is discussed. This framework will be explored for the German innovation system for e-mobility. It can be shown that electric cars will only be successful when part of a system innovation and that the German innovation system is dominated by regime actors and thus potentially used as a way to fend off more substantial change.
Although a substantial economic energy saving potential exists in the residential sector of the European Union, the energy efficiency service (EES) market is much less developed in this market segment than in other demand sectors (e.g. the industry or the public/service sector).
This paper presents an analysis of the current situation and existing potentials for future expansion. A specific analysis methodology has been developed and applied by a research consortium in 18 EU countries. This methodology has mostly built upon an extensive review of the existing literature and on interviews of a large number of acknowledged experts. Its application has allowed identifying encouraging development trends in specific market segments where the possibility of aggregating the EES demand or of exploiting good relationships with customers have created interesting investment opportunities. These trends have been observed in particular in Germany, Denmark, France, Flanders (BE), Hungary, Romania and UK. The assessment performed has also allowed discussing a series of strategies and policy measures that can be adopted to overcome existing barriers to market development. The general conclusion drawn in the paper is that energy efficiency policies supporting EES markets in the residential sector are highly needed. Although EU policies have typically a limited direct impact, they can increase trust into EESs and EES providers. At the national level, a stronger collaboration of governments or local administrations with banks to finance EESs is still very necessary in many EU countries.
The transformation of energy systems is influencing economic policy agendas all over the world, particularly in industrialized countries. In this process, Germany has taken a pioneering role, and hence the technical innovations, legal frameworks, and business models established there are also of interest for other countries trying to achieve broader use of renewable energies. Energy cooperatives have been an important building block in the energy transition in Germany, although their practical importance is neither quantitatively nor qualitatively reflected in the academic literature. Drawing on recently collected data, this paper presents an overview of German energy cooperatives in terms of organization, financing, and membership. We then review literature from economics and the social sciences that has been used to analyze cooperatives on various levels in other fields. We discuss how these theories could be applied to create a better understanding of energy cooperatives, and we derive a preliminary research agenda for their analysis. We also assess the scope for interdisciplinary work among economists, sociologists, and other disciplines.
To live a life of sufficiency in a consumerist culture may be one of the most ambitious experiments an individual could undertake. To investigate this challenge, we employed a social-practice approach. This article is based on 42 qualitative interviews asking respondents why and how they acted in a sufficient way within a Western infrastructure and culture. The results indicate that sufficiency-oriented people draw on particular meanings in everyday-life practices when adopting relevant resource-extensive actions. These understandings encompass an amalgam of environmentally friendly attitudes, positive social intentions, and/or personal commitments to thriftiness. We further identified a set of specific practices - including sharing, recycling, and reusing - as useful for the adoption of a sufficient lifestyle. For our respondents, many of these sufficiency practices occurred regularly in daily life and were rarely questioned. Using an additional survey, we show that these routines lead to less resource-intensive lifestyles and demonstrate how a small group of people has been able to habitually adopt sufficiency practices. However, the majority does not see a need for more frequent implementation of such routines because daily decision-making processes are widely focused on the consumption of products.
The German government has set itself the target of reducing the country's GHG emissions by between 80 and 95% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels. Alongside energy efficiency, renewable energy sources are set to play the main role in this transition. However, the large-scale deployment of renewable energies is expected to cause increased demand for critical mineral resources. The aim of this article is therefore to determine whether the transformation of the German energy system by 2050 ("Energiewende") may possibly be restricted by a lack of critical minerals, focusing primarily on the power sector (generating, transporting and storing electricity from renewable sources). For the relevant technologies, we create roadmaps describing a number of conceivable quantitative market developments in Germany. Estimating the current and future specific material demand of the options selected and projecting them along a range of long-term energy scenarios allows us to assess potential medium- or long-term mineral resource restrictions. The main conclusion we draw is that the shift towards an energy system based on renewable sources that is currently being pursued is principally compatible with the geological availability and supply of mineral resources. In fact, we identified certain sub-technologies as being critical with regard to potential supply risks, owing to dependencies on a small number of supplier countries and competing uses. These sub-technologies are certain wind power plants requiring neodymium and dysprosium, thin-film CIGS photovoltaic cells using indium and selenium, and large-scale redox flow batteries using vanadium. However, non-critical alternatives to these technologies do indeed exist. The likelihood of supplies being restricted can be decreased further by cooperating even more closely with companies in the supplier countries and their governments, and by establishing greater resource efficiency and recyclability as key elements of technology development.
On 12 December 2015, the Parties to the UNFCCC adopted the "Paris Agreement". With this step, the world community has agreed on a collective and cooperative path to fight human-induced climate change: After 25 years of UN climate diplomacy, the world's governments have for the first time in history negotiated a treaty which envisages climate action by all nations. The Agreement sets the world on a path that might lead to a decarbonised economy in the second half of the century. Researchers from the Wuppertal Institute have observed COP 21 and elaborated a detailed analysis of the results. The assessment provides an overview of the most important negotiation outcomes, assesses their results as well as shortfalls and provides an outlook of the next steps needed to implement the Paris Agreement's goals and to set the world firmly on a non-fossil based development path.
Achieving a truly sustainable energy transition requires progress across multiple dimensions beyond climate change mitigation goals. This article reviews and synthesizes results from disparate strands of literature on the coeffects of mitigation to inform climate policy choices at different governance levels. The literature documents many potential cobenefits of mitigation for nonclimate objectives, such as human health and energy security, but little is known about their overall welfare implications. Integrated model studies highlight that climate policies as part of well-designed policy packages reduce the overall cost of achieving multiple sustainability objectives. The incommensurability and uncertainties around the quantification of coeffects become, however, increasingly pervasive the more the perspective shifts from sectoral and local to economy wide and global, the more objectives are analyzed, and the more the results are expressed in economic rather than nonmonetary terms. Different strings of evidence highlight the role and importance of energy efficiency for realizing synergies across multiple sustainability objectives.
Consumption-based CO2 emissions, which are commonly calculated by means of environmentally extended input-output analysis, are gaining wider recognition as a way to complement territorial emission inventories. Although their use has increased significantly in the last years, insufficient attention has been paid to the methodological soundness of the underlying environmental extension. This should follow the internationally agreed accounting rules of the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting, which addresses the activities undertaken by the residents of a country, independent from where these take place. Nonetheless, some footprint calculations use extensions that account for all the activities within the territory, which leads to methodological inconsistencies. Thus, this article introduces the most relevant conceptual differences between these accounting frameworks and shows the magnitude of the gap between them building on the data generated for the EXIOBASE model. It concludes that the differences are high for many countries and their magnitude is increasing over time.
For 20 years, the number of resource policy approaches with direct and indirect relations to raw materials, resource and material efficiency has grown enormously at national and international level. This discussion paper makes an inventory of different political and regulatory approaches that contain a direct or indirect reference to resources such as construction materials, industrial minerals, or metals. They are examined and evaluated regarding foci and resource priorities as well as further categories such as target lines, governance levels, indicators used, integration into wider target systems, specification, and implementation. The aim is to provide an overview of the spectrum of resource objectives in international, European, and national strategies, programs, and initiatives. The closer analysis of raw material targets embedded in the policy programs and legal approaches reveals that most goals lack a time frame and a concrete vision, thus remain at a strategic level. To complement the overview, the state of research in the field of modeling and simulation is briefly discussed. Concluding remarks concerning their relation to the objectives identified and the task of target setting complete the discussion.
Decision-making in sustainable urban mobility planning : common practice and future directions
(2015)
The European Commission aims to foster sustainable local transport systems through the concept of "Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans" (SUMPs). This paper is intended as a think piece highlighting the challenges for cities in selecting sustainable and cost-effective transport and mobility measures. Not only does the paper convey an understanding of the challenges of determining a transport project's viability, but it also presents five case studies of sustainable urban mobility planning and the role of project appraisal in those policy-making processes.
German electricity giants have recently taken high-level decisions to remove selected fossil fuel operations from their company portfolio. This new corporate strategy could be seen as a direct response to the growing global influence of the fossil fuel divestment campaign. In this paper we ask whether the divestment movement currently exerts significant influence on decision-making at the top four German energy giants - E.On, RWE, Vattenfall and EnBW. We find that this is not yet the case. After describing the trajectory of the global fossil fuel divestment campaign, we outline four alternative influences on corporate strategy that, currently, are having a greater impact than the divestment movement on Germany's power sector. In time, however, clear political decisions and strong civil support may increase the significance of climate change concerns in the strategic management of the German electricity giants.
Social innovations, which transform resource intensive routines and practices into low-resource ones, combined with socio-technically designed transition paths, which are created around sustainability and environmental criteria, are milestones for implementation and diffusion of SCP (Sustainable Consumption and Production). This paper analyses such processes based on eight key components in order to evaluate and explain transformation and transition towards a sustainable lifestyle. Actors on all levels of society are included in this approach, creating a whole framework. Global megatrends, such as climate change, demographic change or resource scarcity will be put into relation with current policies and production trends, which play an important role for the development of transition pathways and future scenarios. This will enable us to work out guidelines and ideas on how to create a more sustainable society specifically.
Prospects of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in China's power sector : an integrated assessment
(2015)
Objective: The aim of the present article is to conduct an integrated assessment in order to explore whether CCS could be a viable technological option for significantly reducing future CO2 emissions in China. Methods: In this paper, an integrated approach covering five assessment dimensions is chosen. Each dimension is investigated using specific methods (graphical abstract). Results: The most crucial precondition that must be met is a reliable storage capacity assessment based on site-specific geological data. Our projection of different trends of coal-based power plant capacities up to 2050 ranges between 34 and 221 Gt of CO2 that may be captured from coal-fired power plants to be built by 2050. If very optimistic assumptions about the country’s CO2 storage potential are applied, 192 Gt of CO2 could theoretically be stored as a result of matching these sources with suitable sinks. If a cautious approach is taken, this figure falls to 29 Gt of CO2. In practice, this potential will decrease further with the impact of technical, legal, economic and social acceptance factors. Further constraints may be the delayed commercial availability of CCS in China; a significant barrier to achieving the economic viability of CCS due to a currently non-existing nation-wide CO2 pricing scheme that generates a sufficiently strong price signal; an expected life-cycle reduction rate of the power plant's greenhouse gas emissions of 59-60%; and an increase in most other negative environmental and social impacts. Conclusion and practice implications: Most experts expect a striking dominance of coal-fired power generation in the country's electricity sector, even if the recent trend towards a flattened deployment of coal capacity and reduced annual growth rates of coal-fired generation proves to be true in the future. In order to reduce fossil fuel-related CO2 emissions to a level that would be consistent with the long-term climate protection target of the international community to which China is increasingly committing itself, this option may require the introduction of CCS. However, a precondition for opting for CCS would be finding robust solutions to the constraints highlighted in this article. Furthermore, a comparison with other low-carbon technology options may be useful in drawing completely valid conclusions on the economic, ecological and social viability of CCS in a low-carbon policy environment. The assessment dimensions should be integrated into macro-economic optimisation models by combining qualitative with quantitative modelling, and the flexible operation of CCS power plants should be analysed in view of a possible role of CCS for balancing fluctuating renewable energies.
Prospects for the integration of power markets and the expansion of renewable energy have recently triggered a number of publications dealing with transformation scenarios of the North African electricity systems. This paper compares five studies using economic electricity supply- and demand models to assess possible development pathways of the North African power systems from today until 2030 and 2050. The analysis shows that distinct modeling methodologies as well as different approaches to scenario design and parameter assumptions can strongly influence the studies' results, leading to very heterogenous projections of North Africa's power generation structures as well as the patterns of electricity exchange with other regions, like Europe. Common findings of the studies are that the surplus costs of capital-intensive renewable energy expansion in North Africa can in most cases be offset by avoided fuel costs and avoided investments in conventional power plants. All studies further agree that increased transnational cooperation, notably in terms of market integration and cross-border power exchanges, can bring about important economic advantages for the North African power sector. Renewable energy expansion could also drive electricity exports to Europe, but in integrated power market schemes, such exports only become viable with a very high share of renewable energy exceeding 60% of the North African power demand.
A key challenge of the 21st century is to transform society into one that features sustainable patterns of production and consumption. To achieve this, transition processes need to be designed in key areas such as housing, mobility and nutrition. The design and large-scale implementation of sustainable product service systems (PSS) is regarded a promising approach for sustainability transitions. Real-life socio-technical experiments are an important infrastructure for designing PSS in collaboration with stakeholders and users. In this paper, we argue that transdisciplinary and action research methods are required for institutionalising an experimental set-up and developing PSS within such infrastructures. We present the Sustainable LivingLabs (SLL) research infrastructure and its methodology as an example of such experimental settings. It was collaboratively developed with key stakeholders in three consecutive research projects and applied to e.g. heating and space heating. We show new qualities of SLL in relation to existing LivingLabs and approaches for PSS design and present its methodological three-phase model (insight research, prototyping, field testing) of research. Our article contributes to knowledge on a methodological framework and tool-kit for PSS development in SLL with a clear focus on socio-ecological sustainability. Intermediate findings confirm the high influence of user practices on heating energy consumption and show starting points for PSS development: e.g. transformational products, home-automation combined with consulting along value chains. We hypothesise that developing PSS in user- and stakeholder-integrated settings supports acceptance and diffusion and, by taking into account users' social practices of utilising novelties, reduces rebound effects caused by incorrect application.
Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have decided to establish a "new market-based mechanism" (NMM) to promote mitigation across "broad segments" of developing countries' economies but have so far defined only some broad outlines of how it is to function. This article identifies key design options of the NMM based on a survey of the literature and reviews them against a range of assessment criteria. Furthermore, potential application of the NMM is analysed for five country-sector combinations. The analysis finds that lack of data and of institutions that could manage the NMM are key bottlenecks. In addition, the analysis reveals the existence of substantial no-regret reduction potential, suggesting that sectors may not be sensitive to the market incentives from an NMM. Governmental capacity building and Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) might be more appropriate in the short term, preparing the ground for the adoption of market-based approaches at a later stage. NMM pilots could be based on supported NAMAs but should ideally generate tradable and compliance-grade emission credits in order to fully simulate the real-life conditions of an NMM.
Policy relevance: The Doha conference identified "possible elements" of the NMM to be addressed in the development of the NMM's modalities and procedures. This article identifies available options for these possible elements and reviews these options against a number of criteria, including environmental effectiveness, economic efficiency, political and administrative efficiency, and others. On this basis the article identifies options that are best suited to fulfil the main aims of the NMM as decided at the Durban conference, "to enhance the cost-effectiveness of, and to promote, mitigation actions". In addition, the article analysis potential application of the NMM for five country-sector combinations. The analysis assesses the emission reduction potential that could be mobilized through the NMM as well as the institutional market readiness of the sectors. Finally, the article synthesizes the challenges ahead for the NMM that have emerged from the analysis and suggests possible ways forward.
Critical metals are in great demand by the electrical and electronics industry, so waste electrical and eletronic equipment represents a significant source of secondary raw materials. Owing to low recycling rates and the concomitant supply risks associated with critical metals, the closure of the material cycles is highly relevant to the German economy. Losses of these metals occur from collection until their material recovery, along the entire disposal chain of waste electrical and electronic equipment. This paper develops planning criteria for the design of collection groups to achieve higher recovery amounts of such metals. The aim is to clarify what amounts of metals exist, both product-specific and on the market, how the dismantling of the products is constructed and how collection groups can be arranged with planning criteria oriented towards resource conservation. The analysis is a snapshot using the example of indium and selected products. A procedure is presented and findings identified which are transferable to various critical metals and to waste electrical and electronic equipment. The results show that grouping of products according to resource amounts and the dismantling effort enables forward-looking and resource-efficient planning of the treatment of every single collection group.
A future-oriented and sustainable "Leasing Society" is based on a combination of new and innovative serviceoriented business models, changed product and material ownership structures, increased and improved eco-design efforts, and reverse logistic structures. Together these elements have the potential to change the relationship between producers and consumers, and thereby create a new incentive structure in the economy regarding the use and re-use of resources. While the consumer in a leasing society buys a service (instead of a product), the producer in a leasing society retains the ownership of the product (instead of selling it) and sells the service of using the product. This creates producer incentives to re-use, remanufacture, and recycle products and materials and could become a cornerstone of the circular economy, depending on how the leasing society is implemented. While a predominantly positive picture of the success of a leasing society model and related business cases emerges from the bigger part of the available literature, this paper argues that the resource efficiency of respective business cases is highly dependent on the specific business case design. This paper develops a more cautious and differentiated definition of the leasing society by discussing relevant mechanisms and success factors of leasing society business cases. The leasing society is discussed from a micro business-oriented and a macro environment-oriented perspective complemented by a discussion of conditions for successful business models that reduce environmental impacts and resource footprints.
The transition towards a circular economy is high on the political agenda and support for innovative business models can be seen as one of the key strategies for its implementation. Nevertheless most of these business models rely on an increasing generation of waste and thus undermine the prevention of waste as top of the waste hierarchy. The paper aims to link this debate to more systemic eco-innovations that offer economic market potentials by reduced material inputs and waste generation. This directs the attention to sufficiency strategies that surpass the level of individual consumer choices and regards the potentials of entrepreneurial sufficiency strategies. It takes the example of waste contracting modelsin Germany as a possible approach of resource-light business models that provide existing utility aspects with altered consumption patterns and decreased resource consumption. It describes environmental and economic benefits and draws conclusions on necessary policy framework conditions.
Societal transitions involve multiple actors, changes in institutions, values and technologies, and interactions across multiple sectors and scales. Given this complexity, this paper takes on the view that the societal transitions research field would benefit from the further maturation and broader uptake of modelling approaches. This paper shows how modelling can enhance the understanding of and support stakeholders to steer societal transitions. It discusses the benefits modelling provides for studying large societal systems and elaborates on different ways models can be used for transitions studies. Two model applications are presented in some detail to illustrate the benefits. Then, limitations of modelling societal transitions are discussed, which leads to an agenda for future activities: (1) better cooperation in the development of dynamic models, (2) stronger interaction with other transition scholars and stakeholders, and (3) use of additional modelling approaches that we think are relevant to and largely unexplored in transitions studies.
The paper reflects the hypothesis that those technological and institutional innovations survive which extend the safe operating range (SOR) of the Humans-Technologies-Institutions (HTI) system (e.g. companies, cities, regions and countries). The multidimensional SOR of a country comprises in particular safe livelihood, quality of life, security, monetary stability, supply security and quality of the environment. A "mechanism of progress" is described involving the search for higher safety and independence of constraints. With innovation and learning in a key role, the mechanism leads to a relative decoupling of resource use and economic value added and a growing share of knowledge generation in the economy. Competition of HTI systems for scarce resources may lead to independence strategies such as enhanced resource efficiency. It may also lead to cooperation of competing HTI systems facilitated by new institutions thus forming an HTI system at higher level of complexity. While the consortium could coordinate their resource consumption within the boundaries of safe operating space, the partner HTI systems would further expand their SOR. Data is provided that net resource importing countries have developed higher material productivity thus increasing their independence from resource supply, and countries with such capability have gained higher innovation capacity.
A lack of proper treatment infrastructure and sufficient capacity for municipal solid waste (MSW) treatment is a crucial barrier for the environmentally sound management of waste. However, overcapacities, especially for waste incineration, also have to be taken into account regarding their potential impacts on recycling markets and waste treatment prices. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of existing MSW incineration plants and their capacities within Europe. In combination with the analysis of imports and exports of MSW for incineration, it provides an indication of over- and undercapacities for incineration plants. Among other things, the results show that in six of the 32 countries analysed in this study, capacities exceed more than 50% of the annual waste generation, while in two countries the total amount of waste generated annually is not enough to fill all the incineration plants.
The bioeconomy is gaining growing attention as a perceived win-win strategy for environment and economy in the EU. However, the EU already has a disproportionately high global cropland footprint compared to the world average, and uses more cropland than domestically available to supply its demand for agricultural products. There is a risk that uncontrolled growth of the bioeconomy will increase land use pressures abroad. For that reason, a monitoring system is needed to account for the global land use of European consumption. The aim of this paper is to take a closer look at the tools needed to monitor global cropland footprints, as well as the targets needed to benchmark development. This paper reviews recent developments in land footprint accounting approaches and applies the method of global land use accounting to calculate the global cropland footprint of the EU-27 for the years between 2000 and 2011. It finds a slight decrease in per capita cropland footprints over the past decade (of around 1% annually, reaching 0.29 ha/cap in 2011) and advocates promoting a further decrease in per capita cropland requirements (of around 2% annually) to reach global land use targets for keeping consumption within the safe operating space of planetary boundaries by 2030. It argues that strategic land reduction targets may still go hand in hand with the growth of a smart, innovative and sustainable bioeconomy by reinforcing the need for policies that support greater efficiency across the life-cycle and reduce wasteful and excessive consumption practices. Recommendations for further improving land footprint accounting are given.
Heating behavior of households is key for reducing domestic energy demand and mitigating climate change. Recently, various technical devices have been developed, providing households with feedback on their heating behavior and supporting energy conservation behavior.
The impact of such devices on overall energy consumption depends on (1) the impact of a device within a household, (2) the diffusion of devices to other households and the number of adopters, and (3) the diffusion of the induced behavioral change beyond these households. While the first two processes are currently established in assessments of sustainable household devices, we suggest that adding behavior diffusion is essential when assessing devices that explicitly target behavioral change. We therefore propose an assessment framework that includes all three processes. We implement this framework in an agent-based model by combining two existing simulation models to explore the effect of adding behavior diffusion. In three simulation experiments, we identify two mechanisms by which behavior diffusion (1) spreads the effect of such devices from adopters to non-adopters and (2) increases the average speed of behavioral change of households. From these results we conclude that behavior diffusion should be included in assessments of behavior-changing feedback devices.
This article presents an integrated assessment conducted in order to explore whether carbon capture and storage (CCS) could be a viable technological option for significantly reducing future CO2 emissions in South Africa. The methodological approach covers a commercial availability analysis, an analysis of the long-term usable CO2 storage potential (based on storage capacity assessment, energy scenario analysis and source-sink matching), an economic and ecological assessment and a stakeholder analysis. The findings show, that a reliable storage capacity assessment is needed, since only rough figures concerning the effective capacity currently exist. Further constraints on the fast deployment of CCS may be the delayed commercial availability of CCS, significant barriers to increasing the economic viability of CCS, an expected net maximum reduction rate of the power plant's greenhouse gas emissions of 67%-72%, an increase in other environmental and social impacts, and low public awareness of CCS. One precondition for opting for CCS would be to find robust solutions to these constraints, taking into account that CCS could potentially conflict with other important policy objectives, such as affordable electricity rates to give the whole population access to electricity.
The German federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) is home to one of the most important industrial regions in Europe, and is the first German state to have adopted its own Climate Protection Law (CPL). This paper describes the long-term (up to 2050) mitigation scenarios for NRW’s main energy-intensive industrial sub-sectors which served to support the implementation of the CPL. It also describes the process of scenario development, as these scenarios were developed through stakeholder participation. The scenarios considered three different pathways (best-available technologies, break-through technologies, and CO2 capture and storage). All pathways had optimistic assumptions on the rate of industrial growth and availability of low-carbon electricity. We find that a policy of "re-industrialisation" for NRW based on the current industrial structures (assumed here to represent an average growth of NRWs industrial gross value added (GVA) of 1.6% per year until 2030 and 0.6% per year from 2030 to 2050), would pose a significant challenge for the achievement of overall energy demand and German greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets, in particular as remaining efficiency potentials in NRW are limited. In the best-available technology (BAT) scenario CO2 emission reductions of only 16% are achieved, whereas the low carbon (LC) and the carbon capture and storage (CCS) scenario achieve 50% and 79% reduction respectively. Our results indicate the importance of successful development and implementation of a decarbonised electricity supply and breakthrough technologies in industry - such as electrification, hydrogen-based processes for steel, alternative cements or CCS - if significant growth is to be achieved in combination with climate mitigation. They, however, also show that technological solutions alone, together with unmitigated growth in consumption of material goods, could be insufficient to meet GHG reduction targets in industry.
Limiting global warming to below 2 °C or even 1.5 °C requires a fundamental transformation of global socio-economic systems. This need for transformation has been taken up by international climate policy. This article synthesizes criteria of transformational change from transition research and climate finance agencies. On this basis, the article conducts a multi-criteria evaluation of the transformative potential of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), currently the world's largest market-based climate policy. From this case it can be inferred that emissions trading can "destabilize" incumbent high-emission practices, but its effectiveness in fostering innovation is limited. Furthermore, the analysis shows that details in the arrangements of the scheme such as allocation rules can have a strong detrimental impact on its outcome. If a global carbon market with a uniform price were introduced, this could lead to developing countries "buying in" with large amounts of freely allocated allowances. This, however, has been shown to thwart transformational effects and instead contribute to further carbon lock-in.
Biodiversity loss is widely recognized as a serious global environmental change process. While large-scale metal mining activities do not belong to the top drivers of such change, these operations exert or may intensify pressures on biodiversity by adversely changing habitats, directly and indirectly, at local and regional scales. So far, analyses of global spatial dynamics of mining and its burden on biodiversity focused on the overlap between mines and protected areas or areas of high value for conservation. However, it is less clear how operating metal mines are globally exerting pressure on zones of different biodiversity richness; a similar gap exists for unmined but known mineral deposits. By using vascular plants' diversity as a proxy to quantify overall biodiversity, this study provides a first examination of the global spatial distribution of mines and deposits for five key metals across different biodiversity zones. The results indicate that mines and deposits are not randomly distributed, but concentrated within intermediate and high diversity zones, especially bauxite and silver. In contrast, iron, gold, and copper mines and deposits are closer to a more proportional distribution while showing a high concentration in the intermediate biodiversity zone. Considering the five metals together, 63% and 61% of available mines and deposits, respectively, are located in intermediate diversity zones, comprising 52% of the global land terrestrial surface. 23% of mines and 20% of ore deposits are located in areas of high plant diversity, covering 17% of the land. 13% of mines and 19% of deposits are in areas of low plant diversity, comprising 31% of the land surface. Thus, there seems to be potential for opening new mines in areas of low biodiversity in the future.
This review of sources has assessed existing evidence for economic benefits arising from activities fostering the use of vehicles that use electricity to power an electric motor. It is designed to support cities in their decision making and measure selection process. The article is one of 22 reviews published in this volume.
Cleaner vehicles
(2016)
This review of sources has assessed existing evidence for economic benefits arising from innovations or interventions that aim to improve the environmental performance of vehicles - such as enhancements to engine and vehicle technologies or improved fuels. It is designed to support cities in their decision making and measure selection process. The article is one of 22 reviews published in this volume.
In the future, the capacities of renewable SNG (synthetic natural gas) will expand significantly. Pilot plants are underway to use surplus renewable power, mainly from wind, for electrolysis and the production of hydrogen, which is methanated and fed into the existing gas pipeline grid. Pilot projects aim at the energetic use of SNG for households and transport in particular for gas fueled cars. Another option could be the use of SNG as feedstock in chemical industry.
The early stage of development raises the question of whether SNG should be better used for mobility or the production of chemicals. This study compares the global warming potential (GWP) of the production of fossil natural gas (NG) and carbon-dioxide (CO2)-based SNG and its use for car transport versus chemical use in the form of synthesis gas. Since the potential of wind energy for SNG production is mainly located in northern Germany, the consequences by a growing distance between production in the North and transport to the South of Germany are also examined.
The results indicate that CO2-based SNG produced with wind power would lead to lower GWP when substituting NG for both uses in either transport or chemical production. Differences of the savings potential occur in short-distance pipeline transport. The critical factor is the energy required for compression along the process chain.
Distributed cogeneration units are flexible and suited to providing balancing power, thereby contributing to the integration of renewable electricity. Against this background, we analysed the technical potential and ecological impact of CHP (combined heat and power) systems on the German minutes reserve market for 2010, 2020 and 2030. Typical CHP plants (from 1 to 2800 kWel) were evaluated in relation to typical buildings or supply cases in different sectors. The minutes reserve potential was determined by an optimisation model with a temporal resolution of 15 min. The results were scaled up to national level using a scenario analysis for the future development of CHP. Additionally, the extent to which three different flexibility measures (double plant size/fourfold storage volume/emergency cooler) increase the potential provision of balancing power was examined. Key findings demonstrate that distributed CHP could contribute significantly to the provision of minutes reserve in future decades. Flexibility options would further enhance the theoretical potential. The grid-orientated operating mode slightly increases CO2 emissions compared to the heat-orientated mode, but it is still preferable to the separate generation of heat and power. However, the impacts of a flexible mode depend greatly on the application and power-to-heat ratio of the individual CHP system.
The so-called "Semesterticket" is a special tariff for university students in Germany which enables them to use public transport in the area of their university. Semester tickets are financed in solidarity by the students: If a university runs a semester ticket, all students automatically have to buy a ticket for one semester (6 months), regardless of whether they want to use public transport or not. In return, the students can use public transport in the area of their university for a very low semester contribution as much as they want without purchasing any extra tickets. In Germany, the first semester ticket was introduced 25 years ago in Darmstadt (1991) as a result of student initiatives. Today, most German universities run a semester ticket.
This article describes the concept of semester tickets in Germany, their development over the time and presents empirical research data on student acceptance and the effects of semester tickets on mode shift to public transport and the reduction of car ownership.
This article analyses drivers and barriers to returning and recycling mobile phones and their consideration in existing communication and collection campaigns.
This is an important issue based on the fact that the mobile phone market is growing rapidly. In 2015 there are nearly 7 billion global mobile cellular subscriptions. This means that, at least theoretically, everyone in the world has access to mobile communication services (ITU 2015). However, the production of mobile phones is linked to an increasing use of natural resources: the "ecological rucksack" of a mobile phone is equal to about 75 kg of resources (Nordmann et al. 2015); while the global recycling rate of mobile phones is under 10 per cent (Nokia 2008, Tanskanen 2012).
In order to adress this issue, the main factors that influence return and recycling behaviour (focussing on mobile phones) will be discussed in chapter 2 of this article. The theoretical analysis is based on the norm activation model by Ellen Matthies (2005). This analysis will be complemented by empirical data and findings generated in the research project "Return and use of old mobile phones", funded by the German Ministry of Education and Research (Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment, Energy/Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, 2012-2014). To conclude, we will identify and operationalise essential components of mobile phone communication and collection campaigns, based on the theoretical approach of Matthies, literature and empirical studies, in order to develop a set of criteria for analysing and rating such communication and collection campaigns.
The results show that economic incentives as well as education and communication play a very important role in initiating more sustainable behavioural patterns in the ICT sector. The role of emotional factors is often underestimated in the development of communication activities. In summary, successful mobile phone communication and collection campaigns require a combination of several institutional, economic, social and emotional factors.
Energy systems across the globe are going through a radical transformation as a result of technological and institutional changes, depletion of fossil fuel resources, and climate change. At the local level, increasing distributed energy resources requires that the centralized energy systems be re-organized. In this paper, the concept of Integrated community energy systems (ICESs) is presented as a modern development to re-organize local energy systems to integrate distributed energy resources and engage local communities. Local energy systems such as ICESs not only ensure self-provision of energy but also provide essential system services to the larger energy system. In this regard, a comparison of different energy system integration option is provided. We review the current energy trends and the associated technological, socio-economic, environmental and institutional issues shaping the development of ICESs. These systems can be applied to both developed and developing countries, however, their objectives, business models as well as composition differs. ICESs can be accepted by different actors such as local governments, communities, energy suppliers and system operators as an effective means to achieve sustainability and thereby will have significant roles in future energy systems.
Businesses are under increasing pressure to improve the resource efficiency of their products and services. There is a need for practical tools that enable businesses to implement resource efficiency in their value chains. In this paper, a mixed-method approach for assessing the life-cycle-wide use of natural resources in products and services is applied in a case study on a coffee value chain of the company Mars Incorporated. Material inputs along the entire chain were assessed quantitatively using the Material Input Per unit of Service method, while a semi-quantitative Hot Spot Analysis was performed to identify environmental hot spots. This mixed-method approach has been implemented for the first time in practice to assess the value-chain-wide resource consumption and environmental impacts within a specific value chain of Mars Incorporated. The paper concludes that combining the methods provides better insights into the value chain than using just one of either of the methods alone. For the company, the approach has proven to be practicable because it identifies improvement options and their value-chain-wide resource efficiency potential.
In the context of the larger sustainability discourse, "sufficiency" is beginning to emerge as a new value throughout Western societies, and the question asked in this article is: Can we observe and conceptually identify opportunities to link successful business strategies of incumbents to principles of sufficiency? Thus, how feasible is sustainable entrepreneurship for incumbents? In this paper, a conceptual approach is developed combining insights from sociology, transition research, management and sustainable entrepreneurship research with a focus on narratives as a translation mechanism in situations where tensions emerge between corporate narratives and unexpected societal trends, e.g., the emergence of sufficient lifestyles. It will be shown that even though these are still a niche phenomenon, a focus on corporate narratives is an important element in understanding the role of incumbents in transitions to sustainability.
Insulating existing buildings offers great potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and meeting Germany's climate protection targets. Previous research suggests that, since homeowners' decision-making processes are inadequately understood as yet, today's incentives aiming at increasing insulation activity lead to unsatisfactory results. We developed an agent-based model to foster the understanding of homeowners' decision-making processes regarding insulation and to explore how situational factors, such as the structural condition of houses and social interaction, influence their insulation activity. Simulation experiments allow us furthermore to study the influence of socio-spatial structures such as residential segregation and population density on the diffusion of renovation behavior among homeowners. Based on the insights gained, we derive recommendations for designing innovative policy instruments. We conclude that the success of particular policy instruments aiming at increasing homeowners' insulation activity in a specific region depends on the socio-spatial structure at hand, and that reducing financial constraints only has a relatively low potential for increasing Germany's insulation rate. Policy instruments should also target the fact that specific renovation occasions are used to undertake additional insulation activities, e.g. by incentivizing lenders and craftsmen to advise homeowners to have insulation installed.
This paper presents a new household-level methodology for transition towards sustainability. The methodology includes measuring the resource use of households on a micro level, testing relevant measures towards a one-planet resource use, and developing mainstreaming options in co-operation with households and providers of services, products, and infrastructures. We use the MIPS (Material Input Per unit of Service) method to calculate the use of natural resources and concentrate on the material footprint as an aggregated indicator for the overall use of material resources. With HST (Household-level Sustainability Transition) methodology, we extend the material footprint methodology from just measuring household resource use to developing visions, conducting experiments, as well as learning and upscaling, all of which contribute to the whole Transition-Enabling Cycle. Results from the first application of the HST methodology on five households in Jyväskylä, Finland, show that it is possible to achieve a significantly more sustainable level of consumption by a relatively few changes in everyday living. Achieving a one-planet use of material resources, however, also requires systemic changes.
The field of nutrition will face numerous challenges in coming decades; these arise from changing lifestyles and global consumption patterns accompanied by a high use of resources. Against this background, this paper presents a newly designed tool to decrease the effect on nutrition, the so-called Nutritional Footprint. The tool is based on implementing the concept of a sustainable diet in decision-making processes, and supporting a resource-light society. The concept integrates four indicators in each of the two nutrition-related fields of health and environment, and condenses them into an easily communicable result, which limits its results to one effect level. Applied to eight lunch meals, the methodology and its calculations procedures are presented in detail. The results underline the general scientific view of food products; animal-protein based meals are more relevant considering their health and environmental effects. The concept seems useful for consumers to evaluate their own choices, and companies to expand their internal data, their benchmarking processes, or their external communication performance. Methodological shortcomings and the interpretation of results are discussed, and the conclusion shows the tools' potential for shaping transition processes, and for the reduction of natural resource use by supporting food suppliers' and consumers' decisions and choice.
This article explores recent developments in the field of remunicipalisation in the German electricity market. Actually, the established socio-technical regime of the electricity market generates considerable inertia and impedes fundamental change. But regarding the energy transition (German Energiewende) a fundamental change is needed; it is essential to promote a broader range of actors and institutions to overcome the existing regime resistance. Many local policy-makers and municipalities in Germany discover chances and possibilities for local action which arise from remunicipalisation. The establishment of municipal power utilities offers the opportunity of implementing an independent energy policy at local level which is critical in creating a transformation to a sustainable energy system based on renewable energies and energy efficiency. The municipal ownership allows a strong governance towards more political influence on the local energy market but the current court decisions regarding the takeover of electricity grids taken by the former concession holder of municipal utilities (Stadtwerke) in Germany make it difficult to realise the full potential of energy policy at a local level. The requirements for a legitimate process are still very high and far too complex to be fulfilled by the local authorities without the help of specialised legal advice.
Contrary to "static" pathways that are defined once for all, this article deals with the need for policy makers to adopt a dynamic adaptive policy pathway for managing decarbonization over the period of implementation. When choosing a pathway as the most desirable option, it is important to keep in mind that each decarbonization option relies on the implementation of specific policies and instruments. Given structural, effectiveness, and timing uncertainties specific to each policy option, they may fail in delivering the expected outcomes in time. The possibility of diverging from an initial decarbonization trajectory to another one without incurring excessive costs should therefore be a strategic element in the design of an appropriate decarbonization strategy. The article relies on initial experiences in France and Germany on decarbonization planning and implementation to define elements for managing dynamic adjustment issues. Such an adaptive pathway strategy should combine long-lived incentives, like a pre-announced escalating carbon price, to form consistent expectations, as well as adaptive policies to improve overall robustness and resilience. We sketch key elements of a monitoring process based on an ex ante definition of leading indicators that should be assessed regularly and combined with signposts and trigger values at the subsector level.
Treating waste as a resource and the design of a circular economy have been identified as key approaches for resource efficiency. Despite ambitious targets, policies and instruments that would enable a transition from a conventional waste management to an integrated and comprehensive resource management are still missing. Moreover, this will require innovative policy mixes which do not only address different end-of-pipe approaches but integrate various resource efficiency aspects from product design to patterns of production and consumption. Based on the results of a project funded by the Seventh Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development named "POLFREE - Policy Options for a resource efficient economy", this paper addresses several aspects of the conceptualization of policy mixes with regard to waste as a specific resource efficiency challenge. The guiding research interest of this paper is the combination of policies necessary to create a full circular economy. In a first step, the present waste policy frameworks, institutions and existing incentives at national level are examined in order to disclose regulatory and policy gaps. Based on this, the second part of the paper describes and analyses specific waste-related resource efficiency instruments with regard to their potential impacts under the constraints of various barriers. Based on the assessment of the country analyses and the innovative instruments, the paper draws conclusions on waste policy mixes and political needs.
To identify the main drivers of transformation, it is helpful to identify the transformation perspectives of three specific schools of thought: idealist, institutional, and technological innovation. By differentiating among these schools of thought, a more informed transformation debate becomes possible, thereby increasing transformative literacy in academia and society.
In a globalized economy, the use of natural resources is determined by the demand of modern production and consumption systems, and by infrastructure development. Sustainable natural resource use will require good governance and management based on sound scientific information, data and indicators. There is a rich literature on natural resource management, yet the national and global scale and macro-economic policy making has been underrepresented. We provide an overview of the scholarly literature on multi-scale governance of natural resources, focusing on the information required by relevant actors from local to global scale. Global natural resource use is largely determined by national, regional, and local policies. We observe that in recent decades, the development of public policies of natural resource use has been fostered by an "inspiration cycle" between the research, policy and statistics community, fostering social learning. Effective natural resource policies require adequate monitoring tools, in particular indicators for the use of materials, energy, land, and water as well as waste and GHG emissions of national economies. We summarize the state-of-the-art of the application of accounting methods and data sources for national material flow accounts and indicators, including territorial and product-life-cycle based approaches. We show how accounts on natural resource use can inform the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and argue that information on natural resource use, and in particular footprint indicators, will be indispensable for a consistent implementation of the SDGs. We recognize that improving the knowledge base for global natural resource use will require further institutional development including at national and international levels, for which we outline options.
One of the factors decelerating a further diffusion of the carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is the public's negative perception of early pilot or demonstration activities in Germany as well as in other countries. This study examined the public perception of CCS in more detail by looking into different options within the CCS chain, i.e. for the three elements capture, transport and storage. This was analyzed using an experimental approach, realized in an online survey with a representative German sample of 1830 citizens. Each participant evaluated one of 18 different CCS scenarios created using three types of CO2 source (industry, biomass, coal), two transport options (pipeline vs. no specification), and three storage possibilities (saline aquifer, depleted gas field, enhanced gas recovery (EGR)).
Overall, we found that the ratings of CCS were neutral on average. However, if the CO2 is produced by a biomass power plant or industry, CCS is rated more positively than in a scenario with a coal-fired power plant. The specifications of transport and storage interacted with each other such that scenarios including EGR or a depleted gas field without mentioning a pipeline were evaluated better than storing it in a saline aquifer or a depleted gas field and mentioning a pipeline as means of transport. Exploratory regression analyses indicate the high relevance of the respective CO2 source in general as well as the perceived importance of this source for Germany.
The economic assessment of low-carbon energy options is the primary step towards the design of policy portfolios to foster the green energy economy. However, today these assessments often fall short of including important determinants of the overall cost-benefit balance of such options by not including indirect costs and benefits, even though these can be game-changing. This is often due to the lack of adequate methodologies.
The purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive account of the key methodological challenges to the assessment of the multiple impacts of energy options, and an initial menu of potential solutions to address these challenges.
The paper first provides evidence for the importance of the multiple impacts of energy actions in the assessment of low-carbon options.
The paper identifies a few key challenges to the evaluation of the co-impacts of low-carbon options and demonstrates that these are more complex for co-impacts than for the direct ones. Such challenges include several layers of additionality, high context dependency, and accounting for distributional effects.
The paper continues by identifying the key challenges to the aggregation of multiple impacts including the risks of overcounting while taking into account the multitude of interactions among the various co-impacts. The paper proposes an analytical framework that can help address these and frame a systematic assessment of the multiple impacts.
Marketing and rewarding
(2016)
This review of sources has assessed existing evidence for economic benefits arising from marketing / social marketing and rewards-based schemes encouraging greater use of more sustainable modes and travel behaviours. It is designed to support cities in their decision making and measure selection process. The article is one of 22 reviews published in this volume.
Washing laundry is one of the most widespread housework tasks in the world. Washing machines, performing this task already in many private households, are now responsible for about 2% of the global electricity consumption. Worldwide, more than 840 million domestic washing machines are in use, with an annual consumption exceeding 92 TWh of electricity and 19 billion m3 of water as well as causing emissions of more than 62 megatons CO2eq. In North America, Western Europe and Pacific OECD countries, most households own a washing machine. In these economies standard and label policy programs already addressed and reduced the specific electricity and water consumption of washing machines per wash cycle. Nevertheless, in other world regions, the level of ownership for washing machines is still well below saturation and high growth rates can be observed in developing and newly industrialising countries. As washing machines use water, electricity, chemical substances and process time as resources, also the absolute worldwide resource consumption and emissions of these appliances are still on the rise. Due to different washing habits and practices as well as types of washing machines in different world regions, the specific consumption of resources for doing the laundry is varying to a large extent. On that score, this paper presents an overview of the current situation worldwide as well as respective saving potentials. Bottom-up scenario calculations, carried out for the 11 world regions according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change classification, show that large energy, water and greenhouse gas savings are possible with the "Best Available Technologies" today, and even higher savings will be possible with next generation "Best Not yet Available Technologies". According to model results, these savings are usually also very cost-effective. Following these calculations, it is highly advisable for policymakers world-wide to pay even more attention to improvement options in order to implement ambitious and product-specific policy packages, including minimum performance standards and labelling schemes.
Six German scenario studies on urban passenger transport for Munich 2058, Wuppertal 2050, Eastern Ruhr Region 2030, Tuebingen 2030, Cologne 2020 and Hanover Region 2020 investigate the key question: With which strategies and on what kind of scale, is it possible to reduce the carbon dioxide emissions of urban passenger transport to accomplish the 2 °C climate protection goal with a consequently huge reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 80% to 95% by 2050 in relation to the base year 1990? The scenarios show that the major challenge of a "climate-friendly city transport" can be achieved by appropriate measures (regarding direction and scale): in small and medium-sized cities, large cities, cities of over a million people, and metropolitan regions. The scenarios demonstrate the extent to which the considered measures contribute to the CO2 reduction, and which gap to the achievement of the goal remains if that which is currently regarded as realistic in practice is really implemented in future. Thus, they illustrate the conflict between that which is necessary for climate protection and that which is currently considered feasible in politics. The scenarios show that it is essential to act quickly and appropriately, and not hesitantly or without conviction.
On 12 December 2015, the Parties to the UNFCCC adopted the "Paris Agreement". With this step, the world community has agreed on a collective and cooperative path to fight human-induced climate change: After 25 years of UN climate diplomacy, the world's governments have for the first time in history negotiated a treaty which envisages climate action by all nations. The Agreement sets the world on a path that might lead to a decarbonised economy in the second half of the century. Researchers from the Wuppertal Institute have observed COP 21 and elaborated a detailed analysis of the results. The assessment provides an overview of the most important negotiation outcomes, assesses their results as well as shortfalls and provides an outlook of the next steps needed to implement the Paris Agreement's goals and to set the world firmly on a non-fossil based development path.
In Germany, doubling today's insulation rate of about 1% is an important element for reaching the government's target of reducing the demand for energy in the housing sector by 80% by 2050. A survey among 275 private homeowners was conducted to better understand their insulation activity. The results were incorporated into an agent-based model, which was applied to evaluate new policy options. The results of the survey show that policies should focus on homeowners' wall insulation activity. Homeowners' decision-making processes regarding insulation are largely unaffected by their financial resources, which raises the question of the usefulness of financial incentives. In contrast, non-economic factors were found to have a statistically significant influence: in the year following a house ownership change, a comparatively large number of insulation projects are carried out. The probability of insulating walls can be predicted from knowing the homeowner's age, attitude towards insulation, and the structural condition of the walls. The simulations indicate that information instruments lead to a comparatively small increase in the wall insulation rate, while obligating new homeowners to insulate the walls within the first year after moving in has the potential to increase the total insulation rate by up to 40%.
The need for deep decarbonisation in the energy intensive basic materials industry is increasingly recognised. In light of the vast future potential for renewable electricity the implications of electrifying the production of basic materials in the European Union is explored in a what-if thought-experiment. Production of steel, cement, glass, lime, petrochemicals, chlorine and ammonia required 125 TW-hours of electricity and 851 TW-hours of fossil fuels for energetic purposes and 671 TW-hours of fossil fuels as feedstock in 2010. The resulting carbon dioxide emissions were equivalent to 9% of total greenhouse gas emissions in EU28. A complete shift of the energy demand as well as the resource base of feedstocks to electricity would result in an electricity demand of 1713 TW-hours about 1200 TW-hours of which would be for producing hydrogen and hydrocarbons for feedstock and energy purposes. With increased material efficiency and some share of bio-based materials and biofuels the electricity demand can be much lower. Our analysis suggest that electrification of basic materials production is technically possible but could have major implications on how the industry and the electric systems interact. It also entails substantial changes in relative prices for electricity and hydrocarbon fuels.
Real-world laboratories are growing in popularity promising a contribution to both: the understanding and facilitation of societal transformation towards sustainability. Baden-Württemberg substantially funds real-world labs as part of the initiative "science for sustainability". To facilitate learning with and from these so-called BaWü-Labs, they are supported by accompanying research conducted by two teams. This article presents first insights and theses on real-world labs as a research format, based in particular on the work of the accompanying research team ForReal. The team supports the labs in their realization and in providing general insights, e.g. by learning from related international research approaches and dialog with international experts, and analyzes suitable quality features and methods (the latter together with the University of Basel team). The theses presented here put up for discussion first insights on real-world labs as a transformative research approach and reflect on them from a theoretical perspective. They illustrate the relevance of a goal-oriented use of methods and present learning processes as core characteristics of real-world labs. The theses were formulated based on discussions with the BaWü-Labs, exchange in international contexts as well as a thematic literature review.
The amount of land directly disturbed by mining is a key generic environmental pressure indicator. A novel method based on the measurement of the cumulative net area disturbances using Landsat satellite images and its correlation with the cumulative ore production at the mine site was applied. Weighted disturbance rates (WDRs) were calculated indicating the annual quantity of hectares newly disturbed per million metric tons of ore extracted. Results show that open pit (OP) have a smaller average WDR (5.05 ha/Mt) than underground (UG) mines (11.85 ha/Mt). This is explained by the relation between the annual amounts of new net area disturbed and of ore extracted which is larger for UG than for OP mines due to the annual extraction volume (lower for UG). Overall findings demonstrate that bauxite mining has the highest WDR (7.98 ha/Mt), followed by gold (6.70 ha/Mt), silver (5.53 ha/Mt), copper (4.5 ha/Mt) and iron (4.25 ha/Mt).
This paper is the first of its kind, providing an identification of the problems encountered in all documented global experiences of cultivating the Jatropha curcas plant, covering 22 case studies. Influential components of the biodiesel production (stakeholders like government, farmers and enterprises as well as resources such as land and water) and how they are interconnected are pinpointed. In addition, the article gives recommendations to the main actors under ecological and socio-economic criteria to ensure a sustainable production of J. curcas oil in regions with appropriate climatic conditions for the plant's viability. Hence, this analysis of experiences discusses the following questions: What are the reasons and factors for the previous unsuccessful and unsustainable cultivation of J. curcas for producing biodiesel? Can it be lucrative and simultaneously achieve poverty alleviation/job creation under the constraints of efficient use of resources (land and water)?
In order to make our lifestyles sustainable, changing our consumption patterns is fundamental. Hence, we need to better understand who the "consumers" are and to consider them as an active actor to directly engage for ensuring effective policies. In order to support a resource-light society, production and consumption need to be considered through an integrated system view; within this, consumers play an important role as co-acting subjects. Almost every activity in private life involves a form of consumption aimed at satisfying the subject's needs and often regarded through an economic lens. Sustainable development is not about abolishing private consumption, but rather about making it environmentally, socially and individually sustainable in its design, organization and realization, also involving ideas of simplicity or renunciation. In this paper, we will assess the status quo of the German and European debates on Consumer Research Policies and discuss the idea to link sustainability research and consumer research - where a strategic relation is currently missing. Within that discussion, an evidence-based and obligatory consumer research strategy in Germany and Europe would represent a significant improvement. A system view perspective is necessary to take into consideration the impressive amount of diversity, and to elaborate realistic economic and consumer policies. Therefore, we propose nine steps for understanding the role of the consumer in implementing sustainable development from a scientific and political perspective. The limitations of this paper are thus a result of the very diverse and often unclear policies and agendas produced by governments. The implementation of the proposed innovative research agenda for a future-orientated and sustainability-based consumer research is not free from challenges. Still, the paper suggests the first steps towards this direction. After a critical discussion of the current EU and German consumer and sustainability policies, nine differentiated and substantial ways to integrate and ameliorate them are proposed.
This article reviews the literature on the past cost dynamics of various renewable, fossil fuel and nuclear electricity generation technologies. It identifies 10 different factors which have played key roles in influencing past cost developments according to the literature. These 10 factors are: deployment-induced learning, research, development and demonstration (RD&D)-induced learning, knowledge spillovers from other technologies, upsizing, economies of manufacturing scale, economies of project scale, changes in material and labour costs, changes in fuel costs, regulatory changes, and limits to the availability of suitable sites. The article summarises the relevant literature findings for each of these 10 factors and provides an overview indicating which factors have impacted on which generation technologies. The article also discusses the insights gained from the review for a better understanding of possible future cost developments of electricity generation technologies. Finally, future research needs, which may support a better understanding of past and future cost developments, are identified.
Understanding the diversifying role of civil society in Europe's sustainability pathway is a valid proposition both scientifically and socially. Civil society organisations already play a significant role in the reality of cities, what remains to be explored is the question: what is the role of civil society in the future sustainability of European cities? We first examine the novelty of new forms of civil society organization based on a thorough review of recent case studies of civil society initiatives for sustainable transitions across a diversity of European projects and an extensive literature review. We conceptualize a series of roles that civil society plays and the tensions they entail. We argue that, civil society initiatives can pioneer new social relations and practices therefore be an integral part of urban transformations and can fill the void left by a retreating welfare state, thereby safeguarding and servicing social needs but also backing up such a rolling back of the welfare state. It can act as a hidden innovator - contributing to sustainability but remaining disconnected from the wider society. Assuming each of these roles can have unintended effects, such as being proliferated by political agendas, which endanger its role and social mission, and can be peeled off to serve political agendas resulting in its disempowerment and over-exposure. We conclude with a series of implications for future research on the roles of civil society in urban sustainability transitions.
A reduction in working hours is being considered to tackle issues associated with ecological sustainability, social equity and enhanced life satisfaction - a so-called triple dividend. With respect to an environmental dividend, the authors analyse the time use rebound effects of reducing working time. They explore how an increase in leisure time triggers a rearrangement of time and expenditure budgets, and thus the use of resources in private households. Does it hold true that time-intensive activities replace resource-intensive consumption when people have more discretionary time at their disposal? This study on environmental issues is complemented by introducing the parameters of voluntary social engagement and individual life satisfaction as potential co-benefits of rebound effects. In order to analyse the first dividend, a mixed methods approach is adopted, enabling two models of time use rebound effects to be applied. First, semi-standardised interviews reveal that environmentally ambiguous substitutions of activities occur following a reduction in working hours. Second, estimates for Germany from national surveys on time use and expenditure show composition effects of gains in leisure time and income loss. For the latter, we estimate the marginal propensity to consume and the marginal propensity to time use. The results show that time savings due to a reduction in working time trigger relevant rebound effects in terms of resource use. However, both the qualitative and quantitative findings put the rebound effects following a reduction in working time into perspective. Time use rebound effects lead to increased voluntary social engagement and greater life satisfaction, the second and third dividends.
The climate impact of the iron and steel industry can be mitigated through increased energy efficiency, emission efficiency, material efficiency, and product use efficiency resulting in reduced product demand. For achieving ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation targets in this sector all measures could become necessary. The current paper focuses on one of those four key measures: emission efficiency via innovative primary steelmaking technologies. After analysing their techno-economical potential until 2100 in part A of this publication, the current research broadens the evaluation scope for the crucial year 2050, based on a Multicriteria-Analysis (MCA). 12 criteria from five different categories ("technology", "society and politics", "economy", "safety and vulnerability" and "ecology") are used to assess the same four future steelmaking technologies in a systematic and holistic way in Germany, as one possible location. The technologies in focus are the blast furnace route (BF-BOF), blast furnace with carbon capture and storage (BF-CCS), hydrogen direct reduction (H-DR), and iron ore electrolysis (EW). These four technologies have been selected, as explained in part A of this paper, because they are the most commonly discussed technological options under discussion by policymakers and the iron and steel industry. The results of the current work should provide decision makers in industry and government with a long-term guidance on technological choices.
In 2050 the MCA shows significantly higher preference scores for the two innovative routes H-DR and EW compared to the blast furnace based routes. The main reasons being higher scores in the economical and environmental criteria. BF-CCS shows its greatest weakness in the social acceptance and the safety and vulnerability criteria. BF-BOF has the lowest economy and ecology score of all assessed routes, which is due to the projected high cost for carbon dioxide emission and increasing prices for fossil fuels. A first indicative trend assessment from today towards 2050 shows that H-DR is the preferred MCA option from today on.
Three exemplary weighting distributions (representing the perspectives of the steel industry, environmental organisations and the government), used to simulate different stakeholder angle of view, don't have a strong influence on the overall evaluation of the steelmaking routes. The results remain very similar, with the highest scores for the innovative routes (H-DR and EW). This leads to the conclusion that EW and in particular H-DR can be identified as the preferred future steelmaking technology across different perspectives.
Specific innovation efforts and dedicated programs are necessary to minimize the time until marketability and to share the development burden. The similarity of the MCA results from different perspectives indicates a great opportunity to reach a political consensus and to work together towards a common future goal. Regarding the pressing time horizon a concentrated engagement for one (or few) technological choices would be highly recommended.
The paper presents the results of an ex-ante evaluation of the economy-wide benefits that may be achieved through the implementation of the 20-year Energy Efficiency Action Plan (EEAP) in Thailand. The objective of the EEAP is to reduce energy intensity by 25 % in 2030 compared to 2010. This is to be reached by reducing the projected energy consumption by 20 % or 38 Mtoe until 2030. We have specified an analytical framework, which allows for a calculation of the overall energy cost savings, energy import cost reductions and reduced CO2 emissions. Moreover, we calculated the induced energy efficiency investments, employment effects and impacts on governmental budget. The evaluation shows that an effective implementation of the plan may lead to a reduction in energy expenditure of 37.7 billion EUR by 2030. Moreover, the EEAP-induced energy savings will significantly reduce the greenhouse gas emissions as well as Thailand’s energy import costs and generate private investment in energy efficiency of about 5 billion EUR annually in 2030, which in turn may lead to about 300,000 new jobs. The size of the net impact of the plan on Thailand’s governmental budget is uncertain due to positive and negative effects on corporate and income tax revenues, expenses for unemployment benefits, governmental energy consumption, expenses for energy subsidies and energy tax income.
The paper presents a case study of applying crowdsourcing to library deliveries. The trial was conducted in the city of Jyväskylä in Finland as part of the Resource Wise Communities program funded by The Finnish Innovation Fund Sitra. The city has a population of 120 000 inhabitants and is facing the shut-down of half of the public libraries in order to adapt its economy to lowered revenues and compulsory cost savings. The assumption was that the level of service for customers not able to settle for e-books would be lowered and/or customers would have to travel longer distances. However, a research pilot was carried out where - instead of lowering the level of service in the area - books and other library media were delivered to customers' homes by utilizing a novel crowdsourced delivery service called PiggyBaggy.
Crowdsourced delivery means that citizens deliver goods to each other along their way. Ideally, the deliveries would be made with minimal detour, along the way, thus maximizing the reduction in natural resource use and related environmental impacts from the transport. However, the transport fuel forms only one part of the overall footprint and in practice rebound effects such as drivers travelling longer distances motivated by monetary compensation, can reduce the targeted environmental improvement.
The objective of our study was to investigate whether an existing consumer service, in this case the library public service, can adopt crowdsourced deliveries quickly from scratch, and to whether consumers participate in the deliveries in a way that has real sustainability benefits. Despite prevailing regulative challenges, the study found that existing library deliveries can be successfully crowdsourced. Each crowdsourced delivery reduced an average of 1.6 kilometers driven by car, despite 80 percent of the deliveries being made within less than a five-kilometer distance. Mobility related footprint reduction potential for Finland is also estimated.
A key factor to energy-efficiency of heating in buildings is the behavior of households, in particular how they ventilate rooms. Energy demand can be reduced by behavioral change; devices can support this by giving feedback to consumers on their behavior. One such feedback device, called the "CO2 meter", shows indoor air-quality in the colors of a traffic light to motivate so called "shock ventilation", which is energy-efficient ventilation behavior. The following effects of the "CO2 meter" are analyzed: (1) the effect of the device on ventilation behavior within households, (2) the diffusion of "CO2 meter" to other households, and (3) the diffusion of changed behavior to households that do not adopt a "CO2 meter". An agent-based model of these processes for the city of Bottrop (Germany) was developed using a variety of data sources. The model shows that the "CO2 meter" would increase adoption of energy-efficient ventilation by c. 12% and reduce heating demand by c. 1% within 15 years. Technology diffusion was found to explain at least c. 54% of the estimated energy savings; behavior diffusion explains up to 46%. These findings indicate that the "CO2 meter" is an interesting low-cost solution to increase the energy-efficiency in residential heating.
Facing the uncertainty of CO2 storage capacity in China by developing different storage scenarios
(2016)
China is very active in the research and development of CO2 capture and storage technologies (CCS). However, existing estimates for CO2 storage capacity are very uncertain. This uncertainty is due to limited geological knowledge, a lack of large-scale research on CO2 injection, and different assessment approaches and parameter settings. Hence storage scenarios represent a method that can be used by policy makers to demonstrate the range of possible storage capacity developments, to help interpret uncertain results and to identify the limitations of existing assessments. In this paper, three storage scenarios are developed for China by evaluating China-wide studies supplemented with more detailed site- and basin-specific assessments. It is estimated that the greatest storage potential can be found in deep saline aquifers. Oil and gas fields may also be used. Coal seams are only included in the highest storage scenario. In total, the scenarios presented demonstrate that China has an effective storage capacity of between 65 and 1551 Gt of CO2. Furthermore, the authors emphasise a need for action to harmonise storage capacity assessment approaches due to the uncertainties involved in the capacity assessments analysed in this study.
In order to reconfigure global socio-economic systems to be compatible with social imperatives and planetary boundaries, a transition towards sustainable development is necessary. The multi-level perspective (MLP) has been developed to study long-term transformative change. This paper complements the MLP by providing an ontological framework for studying and understanding the role of narratives as the vehicle of meaning and intermediation between individual and social collective in the context of ongoing transitions. Narratives are established as an analytical entity to unpack how disturbances at the level of the socio-technical landscape are translated into and contribute to the transformation of socio-technical regimes. To illustrate and test the approach, it is applied to the case of the Fukushima catastrophe: The narratives in relation to nuclear power in Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom are scrutinized and it is explored how these narratives have co-determined the policy responses and thus influenced ongoing transformation processes in the power sectors of the respective countries.
The Paris Agreement marks a milestone in international climate policy. Though, the positive appraisal was not unanimous. This article will argue that the Paris Agreement embraces a new paradigm. Climate change is no longer seen as a clear-cut environmental problem, nor as a developmental issue, but as a challenge to fundamentally transform global societies. While criticism through the lens of the former paradigms is worthwhile, the Paris Agreement should be acknowledged as a pacemaker for the transformation processes that lay ahead of us.
In this paper a new method for the evaluation and comparison of potential future electricity systems is presented. The German electricity system in the year 2050 is used as an example. Based on a comprehensive scenario analysis defining a corridor for possible shares of fluctuating renewable energy sources (FRES) residual loads are calculated in a unified manner. The share of electricity from PV and wind power plants in Germany in the year 2050 is in a range of 42-122% and the load demand has a bandwidth of around 460-750 TWh. The residual loads are input for an algorithm that defines a supplementary mix of technologies providing flexibility to the system. The overall system layout guarantees the balance of generation and demand at all times. Due to the fact that the same method for residual load calculation and mixture of technologies is applied for all scenarios, a good comparability is guaranteed and we are able to identify key characteristics for future developments. The unique feature of the new algorithms presented here is the very fast calculation for a year-long simulation with hourly or shorter time steps taking into account the state of charge or availability of all storage and flexibility technologies. This allows an analysis of many different scenarios on a macro-economic level, variation of input parameters can easily be done, and extensive sensitivity analysis is possible. Furthermore different shares of FRES, CO2-emission targets, interest rates or social acceptance of certain technologies can be included. The capabilities of the method are demonstrated by an analysis of potential German power system layouts with a base scenario of 90% CO2-reduction target compared to 1990 and by the identification of different options for a power sector with a high degree of decarbonisation. The approach also aims at a very high level of transparency both regarding the algorithms and regarding the input parameters of the different technologies taken into account. Therefore this paper also gives a comprehensive and complete overview on the technology parameters used. The forecast on all technologies for the year 2050 regarding technical and economic parameters was made in a comprehensive consultation process with more than 100 experts representing academia and industry working on all different technologies. An extensive analysis of options for the design of potential German energy supply systems in 2050 based on the presented methodology will be published in a follow-up paper.
Global climate
(2016)
This article summarises the main outcomes of the Lima UN Climate Conference (COP20 / CMP10). It starts with the discussions under the Durban Platform on developing a new comprehensive climate agreement and increasing short-term ambition and subsequently covers the issues relating to near-term implementation of previous decisions in the areas of transparency, reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, loss and damage, adaptation, finance, and carbon markets.
Vernacular architecture's use of passive building techniques has been developed in response to the prevailing climatic conditions of the past. Today, buildings are designed with complete indifference to the climate and materials. Energy consumption in buildings is mainly connected to space cooling, supply of hot water, lighting, cooking and, use of appliances. Space cooling and lighting are directly influenced by the design of the building. Energy codes should be concerned with "sufficiency" as well as "efficiency". A more economic and ecological approach to building design is needed.
In October 2014, the European Council agreed on a target of improving overall energy efficiency by at least 27 per cent by 2030. According to the European Council's conclusions, this target should not be translated into nationally binding targets. Nevertheless individual Member States are free to set higher national objectives if desired. However, it is difficult to assess the degree of ambition of a national target because so far not much light has been shed upon the exact size of the untapped efficiency potentials.
This paper provides an in-depth analysis and comparison of existing studies on energy efficiency potentials in the European Union's (EU) Member States by 2030. It includes a structured overview of the results, information on the quality of the available data and suggestions for improvement.
The review shows that comprehensive studies on national energy efficiency potentials are rare and hardly comparable. The existing studies agree on the existence of significant potentials for energy efficiency. Their outcomes, however, vary significantly in terms of national levels. Assuming low policy intensity, energy savings between 10 and 28 per cent could be realised by 2030 compared to a baseline development, in the case of high policy intensity 7-44 per cent. Technical energy efficiency potentials in the different EU Member States are estimated at 14-52 per cent. On average, energy savings of 27 per cent by 2030 appear to be feasible with significant policy effort. We conclude that the deviation in Member States' energy efficiency potentials resulting from different studies represents an indication of the so far poor quality of underlying data. In order to allow for a concretisation of efficiency potential estimates, the comparability and detail of information sources should be improved.
Global climate
(2017)
On 7-18 November, the twenty-second Conference of the Parties (COP-22) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the twelfth Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP-12) took place in Marrakech. Due to the rapid entry into force of the Paris Agreement, Marrakech also hosted the first Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA-1). Nobody had expected this one year before in Paris - the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol, by comparison, had taken eight years. Many hailed the rapid entry into force as further proof of the commitment of the world community to finally tackle the climate problem.
Comparing the Agenda 2030 of the United Nations and the Laudato si' by the Pope, both authored in 2015, one point stands out: the Development enthusiasm of the twentieth century is gone. In its place, we are now dealing with the demise of expansive modernity. The motto of the previous century (playing on words of the Lord's Prayer), "on Earth as in the West", now seems like a threat. The world is in crisis roundabout: the biosphere is being shattered and, in more ways than one, the gap between the rich and the poor is widening. While both publications agree that the global economic model can now be considered old iron, there are equally significant differences. While the Agenda 2030 seeks to repair the existing global economic model significantly, the encyclical calls for a pushing back of economic hegemony and for more ethical responsibility on all levels. While the Agenda 2030 envisions a green economy with social democratic hues, the encyclical foresees a post capitalist-era, based on a cultural shift towards eco-solidarity.
Two for one : integrating the sustainable development agenda with international climate policy
(2017)
2015 was a watershed for international sustainability governance. With the Paris climate agreement and Agenda 2030, the international community adopted new targets and processes which are to guide policy for decades to come. Both emphasise the need for integration. In practice, however, climate change and sustainable development have so far been siloed issues.
The future belongs to the youth, but do they really have a say in it? Learning processes with regard to a successful socio-ecological change must start in childhood and adolescence in order to succeed in social transformation. The youth cannot be a passive part in a changing society - they have to be actively included in its design. When allowed to participate, young people can make important and effective contributions - which should not be reduced to sub-projects and opportunity structures. In a socio-political context, participation means involvement, collaboration, and commitment. In the context of intra- and inter-generational equity, as the core part of sustainable development, participation strategies should be developed that allow for a permanent and purposeful involvement of children and adolescents. Participation of young people is an important and appropriate step in strengthening those who are so strongly affected by the planning processes but are otherwise powerless. A successful involvement and participation of non-professional actors requires a target group-oriented method, a supportive culture of participation, as well as clarity and decision latitude. Abiding by these rules leads to central results.
As of June 2017, 150 countries have ratified the Paris Climate Agreement. This agreement calls for, among other things, strong reductions in CO2 emissions by 2030 and beyond. This paper reviews the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDCs) plans of six Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries and compares their current and projected future CO2 levels across sectors, and their stated targets in the context of their economic and demographic situations. This comparison reveals wide variations in the types of targets, with the "ambition" level changing as the perspective changes from total CO2 to CO2/capita and per unit gross domestic product (GDP). We also review national plans as stated in NDCs and find that while there are many types of policies listed, few are quantified and no attempts are made to score individual or groups of policies for their likelihood in achieving stated targets. We conclude that more analysis is needed to better understand the possible impacts of current policies and plans on CO2 emissions, and whether current plans are adequate to hit targets. Considerations on better aligning targets are also provided.
Optimization and simulation models are fit to work on a multitude of technical, economic, and techno-economic questions. However, they are by now not able to satisfactorily include societal aspects like acceptance, spatial implications and legal frameworks. In order to advance scope and explanatory power of simulation models, collaboration in interdisciplinary research teams is needed. Yet the exchange in such teams and its coordination can prove challenging. Furthermore, disciplinary approaches and methods for simulation and optimization might not be familiar to all participants.
To this end, a new conceptual model is introduced. The conceptual model employs few basic elements and concepts for describing and explaining arbitrary societal and technical relationships. Most notably, the conceptual model is general in its design, so contributions to the problem formulation and design components can be made by all team members regardless of their discipline. The procedure is based on common agent-based concepts without using their terminology. Consequently, an exchange among all team members becomes possible without them necessarily being proficient in agent-based modeling. A reduced presentation of workshop results exemplifies the use of novel elements for deriving an emergent agent-based simulation.
Global climate
(2017)
On 12 December, the twenty-first Conference of Parties (COP-21) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted the Paris Agreement. This marked the conclusion of the long process of crafting a new international climate regime that began with the adoption of the Bali Roadmap in 2007, failed spectacularly in Copenhagen in 2009, and resumed with a new approach in Durban 2011. This article summarizes and analyzes the main contents of the Paris Agreement.
The paper undertakes a closer look on the relation of institutions and policy mixes within the multi-level scope of the European Union in the policy field of resource efficiency and maps out different configurations. Based on an extensive analysis of scope, foci, instruments and especially the distribution of institutional responsibilities in 32 EU countries, the paper aims to amplify the categorisation of policy mix characteristics developed by Rogge and Reichardt by considerations on the institutional background of policy mixes. It specifically brings into question the potential impact of different institutional settings on the consistency and coherence of approaches in this evolving policy field. Resource efficiency is an eminently cross-cutting policy concept and a specific interesting unit of analysis due to the observable heterogeneity of implementation approaches. However, it is still mainly disconnected from energy issues and, at the same time, EU policy has shifted to the circular economy approach, indicating further need for streamlining with the resource efficiency approach. The paper stresses the need to include institutional and multi-level governance issues for policy design and the development of policy mixes, especially in the context of the now refocused resource efficiency agenda to the transition to a circular economy.
Decarbonisation of energy systems requires deep structural change. The purpose of this research was to analyse the rates of change taking place in the energy systems of the European Union (EU), in the light of the EU's climate change mitigation objectives. Trends on indicators such as energy intensity and carbon intensity of energy were compared with decadal benchmarks derived from deep decarbonisation scenarios for the electricity, residential, transport, and industry sectors. The methodology applied provides a useful and informative approach to tracking decarbonisation of energy systems. The results show that the EU has made significant progress in decarbonising its energy systems. On a number of indicators assessed the results show that a significant acceleration from historical levels is required in order to reach the rates of change seen on the future benchmarks for deep decarbonisation. The methodology applied provides an example of how the research community and international organisations could complement the transparency mechanism developed by the Paris Agreement on climate change, to improve understanding of progress toward low-carbon energy systems.
What leads to lunch : how social practices impact (non-)sustainable food consumption / eating habits
(2017)
The field of nutrition will face numerous challenges in coming decades; these arise from global consumption patterns and lead to a high use of resources. Actors in the catering sector face difficulties in promoting their solutions for a more sustainable situation in their field, one of them being the lack of acceptance from consumers. We must ask the question of how to influence consumer behavior and bring forth a transition towards more sustainable food consumption. This paper presents results of a qualitative assessment of eating practices. A group of ten consumers participated in problem-centered interviews and provided data on their eating-out behavior over the course of two weeks. Using the theoretical approach of practice theory, the data gathered in this study were used to form an understanding of the practice of eating out with a focus on the daily routines that influence consumer choices. The results indicate that the practice of eating out is highly dependent on external factors. Busy lifestyles, mobility routines and a perceived lack of time prompt the decision to eat out. Consumers consciously do so to save time and effort and to streamline their schedules. Mobility seems to be an important driver for eating out. Participants try to limit the ways they undertake eating out yet often stop for a meal in-between appointments spontaneously. Findings suggest that nutrition knowledge and sustainable mindsets have little influence on the eating decisions away from home: Participants show a high level of distrust towards quality claims and put their health concerns aside eating out. We can conclude that the act of eating out is strongly influenced by daily routines and those practices that precede or succeed it. Changes in work and mobility patterns are very likely to have an impact on the way consumers eat away from home.
Facing an ever-increasing global consumption of natural resources and related environmental as well as socioeconomic challenges, the transition towards a circular economy will be of crucial importance. The issue is high on the political agenda, especially since the European Commission published its Circular Economy Action Plan in December 2015. Apparently different stakeholders have very different perceptions of the concept as well as different expectations for its implementation. During a workshop series by the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, experts from policy, science, administration, industry and unions discussed key issues for the circular economy: What's the status quo in Germany? How can the circular economy be implemented in a comprehensive and efficient way? Which instruments are available? Is the legal framework on EU and national level sufficient for the evolvement of a circular economy? What is the role of the consumer? What are the economic potentials especially with regard to job creation? How can research and innovation policy contribute to this process? This paper aims to summarise the different discussions.
This paper outlines the key elements of a low-carbon stabilization pathway for land transport, focusing on the potential of key policy measures at the local and national level, opportunities for synergies of sustainable development and climate change objectives, and governance and institutional issues affecting the implementation of measures. It combines several approaches to provide an integrated view on the decarbonization of the transport sector based on recent literature. It will assess the quantitative basis potential climate change mitigation pathways and will then look into policy and institutional aspects that relate to the feasibility of these pathways. This combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis to measure the potential, options, and feasibility of climate change mitigation strategies in the transport sector aims to synthesize recent papers on the subject and draw conclusions for future research.
Against the background of environmental problems arising from the growing extraction of natural resources and resource depletion, achieving a sustainable development is an indispensable challenge in the twenty-first century. In this article we want to show how socio-technical and product-service innovations can change social practices - the routine doings in everyday life - and, thus, support transition of socio-technical systems. We introduce theoretical considerations on how social practice theories and the framework of the Multi-Level Perspective in transition research can be linked to better understand transition processes from a micro-macro-link perspective. We then present cases based on desk research in the field of practices in bathing, heating and nutrition to show how these have changed over the past decades. Building on this, examples of concepts for sustainable product-service-design in these areas are introduced as leverage points to change social practices in everyday life. These have been developed in research projects or design student seminar works, respectively. We argue that this implies sustainable product-service-systems should be developed in a user- and actor-integrated framework, such as Sustainable LivingLabs. The integration of users and other stakeholders into participatory co-creation processes enables tailored solutions that take actual routines and dependencies seriously into account.
One of the main objectives of impact assessments is to identify potentially significant impacts. However, determining this significance has received very limited attention as a procedural step in social impact assessments. Consequently, only limited research and documentation exists on approaches, survey tools and evaluation methods, especially with regard to participatory approaches and combined participatory-technical approaches. This study aims to address this research gap by developing and applying a joined participatory and technical impact significance evaluation. The approach is applied in a case study which analysed the livelihood impacts of the large-scale concentrated solar power plant NOORO I in Ouarzazate, Morocco.
The analysis shows that although different approaches and significance criteria must be applied when involving both local stakeholders and experts, the linked analysis offers more robust results and an improved basis for decision-making. Furthermore, it was observed in the case study that impacts affecting the social, cultural and political spheres were more often considered significant than impacts affecting the physical and material livelihood dimensions. Regarding sustainability assessments of large-scale renewable energy plants, these findings underline the importance (as for other large-scale infrastructure developments) of placing greater emphasis on the inclusion of social aspects in impact assessments.
A continuing trend of global urbanization leads to a geographical concentration of population and social activities that causes a regional compression of concomitant resource and energy consumption. This paper argues that a Sustainable Living Lab infrastructure (SusLab) in urban areas facilitates a systematic integration of user's consideration in the design and development of Product-Service Systems (PSS) that enables changes of daily routines in favor of urban wealth development and conservation of ecosystem services. The authors build on the Sustainable Consumption and Production (SCP) Model of the Wuppertal Institute that provides a theoretical framework of sociotechnical rearrangements towards urban sustainability transition. Therefore, a reconfiguration of social practices and PSS in a desired direction according to social, ecological and economic concerns is reconsidered on the micro level in line with efficiency, consistency, and sufficiency strategies. The authors introduce an assessment framework for urban sustainable development and illustrate multifarious concepts of PSS that are aiming to decouple wealth development from resource and energy consumption in urban areas.
In the face of growing popularity of eco-feedback innovations, recent studies draw attention to the relevance of the human factor for a more effective design of eco-feedback. This paper explores these challenges more deeply by employing a mixed methods approach. We provide in-situ insights from a Living Lab experiment on the effect of smart home systems and traffic light feedback on heating energy consumption in private households. Our results from an interrupted time series analysis of logged data on indoor room temperature, CO2 concentration and consumption of natural gas show that the interventions do not affect heating as expected, neither for automating behaviour via high-tech smart home systems nor via low-tech traffic light feedback. Smart home systems do not promise a significant reduction of heating energy consumption and a traffic light feedback on indoor air quality does not lead to a reaction of indoor CO2 concentrations, but may reduce heating energy consumption. Qualitative interviews on heating practices of participants suggests that comfort temperatures, lack of competences and inert heating systems do override expected effects of the feedback interventions. We propose that high-tech smart home systems should carefully consider the handling competences of users. Low-tech feedback products on the other hand should by design stronger address user experience factors like comfort temperatures.
We present an approach to simulate climate and energy policy for the EU, using a flexible and modular agent-based modelling approach and a toolbox, called the Energy Modelling Laboratory (EMLab). The paper shortly reviews core challenges and approaches for modelling climate and energy policy in light of the energy transition. Afterwards, we present an agent-based model of investment in power generation that has addressed a variety of European energy policy questions. We describe the development of a flexible model core as well as modules on carbon and renewables policies, capacity mechanisms, investment behaviour and representation of intermittent renewables. We present an overview of modelling results, ongoing projects, a case study on current reforms of the EU ETS, and we show their relevance in the EU context.
Various electricity generation technologies using different primary energy sources are available. Many published studies compare the costs of these technologies. However, most of those studies only consider plant-level costs and do not fully take into account additional costs that societies may face in using these technologies. This article reviews the literature on the costs of electricity generation technologies, aiming to determine which types of costs are relevant from a societal point of view when comparing generation technologies. The paper categorises the relevant types of costs, differentiating between plant-level, system and external costs as the main categories. It discusses the relevance of each type of cost for each generation technology. The findings suggest that several low-carbon electricity generation technologies exhibit lower social costs per kWh than the currently dominant technologies using fossil fuels. More generally, the findings emphasise the importance of taking not only plant-level costs, but also system and external costs, into account when comparing electricity generation technologies from a societal point of view. The article intends to inform both policymakers and energy system modellers, the latter who may strive to include all relevant types of costs in their models.
The effectiveness of sustainable product and service innovations is often restricted by limited market acceptance or unexpected consumption patterns. The latter includes rebound effects, which occur when resources liberated by savings are used for further consumption. Recently emerging research from the Living Lab is striving to address and anticipate challenges in innovation design by integrating users in prototyping and field testing product and service innovations. The paper presents findings from a literature review on rebound effects and expert interviews identifying methods to monitor and measures to mitigate rebound effects in early innovation design via Living Lab research.
We find that monitoring and mitigating rebound effects in Living Lab research includes technological and behavioural triggers as well as socio-psychological and time use effects in addition to economic re-spending effects. The experts have confirmed that Living Labs contain the potential to observe complex demand systems of users within experimental designs, encompassing indirect rebound effects in terms of expenditure as well as time use. In this respect, Living Lab research can facilitate support for sustainable innovations, which aim to encourage changes in consumer behaviour, considering re-spending and time use effects simultaneously.
The objective of this paper is to recognize and categorize the various ways that ecosystem services researchers perceive the concept and purpose of ecosystem services (ES). To do so, we employed the discourse analysis approach of Q methodology, where 33 researchers ranked 39 statements on ES derived from the literature. Factor analysis of the Q sorts allowed for the interpretation of five main perspectives on ES: a pragmatic view on nature conservation, seeing ES as useful tool ("Non-Economic Utilitarian"), a strongly value-focused perspective with a skeptical view on ES ("Critical Idealist"), an opposition to a utilitarian approach to nature conservation but seeing ES as more encompassing approach ("Anti-Utilitarian"), a focus on a methodological rather than a critical approach to ES ("Methodologist"), and a rather economic approach to environmental decision-making, in which ES is a useful tool ("Moderate Economist"). We see this plurality as illustrating both the potential of the ES concept to serve as a boundary object for collaboration, but also the threat of ineffective collaboration due to the lack of a common conceptual ground. However, as pluralism can be fruitful if handled transparently, we suggest the need for open dialogue about underlying assumptions when using a value-laden concept like ES.
Background: Global targets for reducing resource use have been set by organizations such as the International Resource Panel and the European Commission. However, these targets exist only at the macro level, e.g., for individual countries. When conducting an environmental analysis at the micro level, resource use is often neglected as an indicator. No sum parameter indicating all abiotic and biotic raw materials has been considered for life cycle assessment, as yet. In fact, life cycle assessment databases even lack some of the specific input flows required to calculate all abiotic and biotic raw materials. In contrast, the cumulative energy demand, an input-based indicator assessing the use of energy resources, is commonly used, particularly when analyzing energy-intensive product systems.
Methods: In view of this, we analyze the environmental relevance of the sum parameter abiotic and biotic raw material demand, which we call the material footprint. First, we show how abiotic and biotic raw material demand can be implemented in the Ecoinvent life cycle assessment database. Employing the adapted database, the material footprint is calculated for 12 individual datasets of chosen materials and crops. The results are compared to those of the cumulated energy demand and four selected impact categories: climate change, ozone depletion, acidification, and terrestrial eutrophication.
Results: The material footprint is generally high in the case of extracted metals and other materials where extraction is associated with a large amount of overburden. This fact can lead to different conclusions being drawn compared to common impact categories or the cumulative energy demand. However, the results show that both the range between the impacts of the different materials and the trends can be similar.
Conclusions: The material footprint is very easy to apply and calculate. It can be implemented in life cycle assessment databases with a few adaptions. Furthermore, an initial comparison with common impact indicators suggests that the material footprint can be used as an input-based indicator to evaluate the environmental burden, without the uncertainty associated with the assessment of emission-based impacts.
Vision development towards a sustainable North Rhine-Westphalia 2030 in a science-practice-dialogue
(2017)
The paper presents the results of a participatory vision development process in the Federal State of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) in Germany. The vision development was part of a scientific research project that accompanied the development of a sustainability strategy for NRW at state level. The Sustainability Strategy NRW was adopted in July 2016 and contains parts of the vision developed in the research project: Sentences from the narrative text vision and proposed targets and indicators that back-up the vision for a sustainable NRW in 2030 were used by the state of NRW. The vision was developed in iterative steps in three consecutive dialogue rounds with different stakeholders from science and practice. The paper presents the methodological approach and the results of the vision formulation process. The paper discusses the lessons learned from the vision development - from both practical and theoretical perspectives of transition management. The paper explores the relevance of setting ambitious targets for sustainable development as part of a state strategy by taking the proposed target of a "4 × 25% modal split" by 2030 as an example. The project demonstrated that a participatory approach for vision development is time and resource consuming, but worth the effort as it improves the quality and acceptance of a vision. Furthermore, the project demonstrated that transformative science contributes valuable inputs for sustainability transitions and for facilitating participatory vision development.
Energy-intensive processing industries (EPIs) produce iron and steel, aluminum, chemicals, cement, glass, and paper and pulp and are responsible for a large share of global greenhouse gas emissions. To meet 2050 emission targets, an accelerated transition towards deep decarbonization is required in these industries. Insights from sociotechnical and innovation systems perspectives are needed to better understand how to steer and facilitate this transition process. The transitions literature has so far, however, not featured EPIs. This paper positions EPIs within the transitions literature by characterizing their sociotechnical and innovation systems in terms of industry structure, innovation strategies, networks, markets and governmental interventions. We subsequently explore how these characteristics may influence the transition to deep decarbonization and identify gaps in the literature from which we formulate an agenda for further transitions research on EPIs and consider policy implications. Furthering this research field would not only enrich discussions on policy for achieving deep decarbonization, but would also develop transitions theory since the distinctive EPI characteristics are likely to yield new patterns in transition dynamics.
Simulation modeling is useful to understand the mechanisms of the diffusion of innovations, which can be used for forecasting the future of innovations. This study aims to make the identification of such mechanisms less costly in time and labor. We present an approach that automates the generation of diffusion models by: (1) preprocessing of empirical data on the diffusion of a specific innovation, taken out by the user; (2) testing variations of agent-based models for their capability of explaining the data; (3) assessing interventions for their potential to influence the spreading of the innovation. We present a working software implementation of this procedure and apply it to the diffusion of water-saving showerheads. The presented procedure successfully generated simulation models that explained diffusion data. This progresses agent-based modeling methodologically by enabling detailed modeling at relative simplicity for users. This widens the circle of persons that can use simulation to shape innovation.
Feedback devices can be used to inform households about their energy-consumption behavior. This may persuade them to practice energy conservation. The use of feedback devices can also - via word of mouth - spread among households and thereby support the spread of the incentivized behavior, e.g. energy-efficient heating behavior. This study investigates how to manage the impact of these environmental innovations via marketing. Marketing activities can support the diffusion of devices. This study aims to identify the most effective strategies of marketing feedback devices. We did this by adapting an agent-based model to simulate the roll-out of a novel feedback technology and heating behavior within households in a virtual city. The most promising marketing strategies were simulated and their impacts were analyzed. We found it particularly effective to lend out feedback devices to consumers, followed by leveraging the social influence of well-connected individuals, and giving away the first few feedback devices for free. Making households aware of the possibility of purchasing feedback devices was found to be least effective. However, making households aware proved to be most cost-efficient. This study shows that actively managing the roll-out of feedback devices can increase their impacts on energy-conservation both effectively and cost-efficiently.
The contribution of the EU bioeconomy to sustainable development depends on how it is implemented. A high innovation potential is accompanied by considerable risks, in particular regarding the exacerbation of global land use conflicts. This article argues that a systemic monitoring system capable of connecting human-environment interactions and multiple scales of analysis in a dynamic way is needed to ensure that the EU bioeconomy transition meets overarching goals, like the Sustainable Development Goals. The monitoring should be centered around a dashboard of key indicators and targets covering environmental, economic, and social aspects of the bioeconomy. With a focus on the land dimension, this article examines the strengths and weakness of different economic, environmental and integrated models and methods for monitoring and forecasting the development of the EU bioeconomy. The state of research on key indicators and targets, as well as research needs to integrate these aspects into existing modeling approaches, are assessed. The article concludes with key criteria for a systemic bioeconomy monitoring system.
Renewable energy targets in the European Union (EU) have raised the demand for timber and are expected to increase dependence on imports. However, EU timber consumption levels are already disproportionally high compared to the rest of the world. The question is, how much timber is available for the EU to sustainably harvest and import, in particular considering sustainable forest management practices, a safe operating space for land-system change, and the global distribution of "common good" resources. This article approaches this question from a supply angle to develop a reference value range for the current as well as future sustainable supply of timber at the EU-27 and global levels. For current supply estimates, national-level data on forest area available for wood supply, productivity in that area, as well as the rate available for harvest were collected and aggregated into three potential supply scenarios. For future supply estimates, a safe operating space scenario halting land use change, a sensitivity analysis, and a literature review were performed. To provide both a comparison of global versus EU sustainable supply capacities and to develop a benchmark toward evaluating and comparing levels of consumption to sustainable supply capacities, per capita calculations were made. Results revealed that the per capita sustainable supply potential of EU forests is estimated to be around three times higher than the global average in 2050. Whether a global or EU reference value is more appropriate for EU policy orientation, considering both strengthened economic and cultural ties to the forest in forest-rich countries as well as the need to prevent problem shifting associated with exporting land demands abroad, is discussed. Further research is needed to strengthen and harmonize data, improve methods for modeling future scenarios and incorporate interdisciplinary and multi-stakeholder perspectives toward the development of robust and politically relevant reference values for sustainable consumption levels.
Since the majority of network concession contracts in Germany were set to expire some time between 2005 and 2016, a window of opportunity arose in which to rebuild and remunicipalise the local energy supply. As a result, 72 new local power companies were established in Germany within the space of just seven years (between early 2005 and late 2012). This paper provides an introduction to the topic of establishing municipal utilities in Germany. The findings were identified on the basis of the comprehensive screening of all newly established municipal utilities in Germany. Our analysis provides information about regional concentration, the size of municipalities, the legal forms of the newly founded municipal public utilities and the role of strategic partnerships. The key findings are that remunicipalisation is not a question of size and that knowledge gaps may be closed by entering into close strategic partnerships.
As the recent withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement has shown, political volatility directly affects climate change mitigation policies, in particular in sectors, such as transport associated with long-term investments by individuals (vehicles) and by local and national governments (urban form and transport infrastructure and services). There is a large potential for cost-effective solutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to improve the sustainability of the transport sector that is yet unexploited. Considering the cost-effectiveness and the potential for co-benefits, it is hard to understand why efficiency gains and CO2 emission reductions in the transport sector are still lagging behind this potential. Particularly interesting is the fact that there is substantial difference among countries with relatively similar economic performances in the development of their transport CO2 emissions over the past thirty years despite the fact that these countries had relatively similar access to efficient technologies and vehicles. This study aims to explore some well-established political science theories on the particular example of climate change mitigation in the transport sector in order to identify some of the factors that could help explain the variations in success of policies and strategies in this sector. The analysis suggests that institutional arrangements that contribute to consensus building in the political process provide a high level of political and policy stability which is vital to long-term changes in energy end-use sectors that rely on long-term investments. However, there is no direct correlation between institutional structures, e.g., corporatism and success in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector. Environmental objectives need to be built into the consensus-based policy structure before actual policy progress can be observed. This usually takes longer in consensus democracies than in politically more agile majoritarian policy environments, but the policy stability that builds on corporatist institutional structures is likely to experience changes over a longer-term, in this case to a shift towards low-carbon transport that endures.
There is a large potential for cost-effective solutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to improve the sustainability of the transport sector that is yet unexploited. Considering the cost-effectiveness and the potential for co-benefits, it is hard to understand why energy gains and mitigation action in the transport sector is still lagging behind the potential. Particularly interesting is the fact that there is substantial difference among countries with relatively similar economic performances, such as the OECD countries in the development of their transport CO2 emission over the past thirty years despite the fact that these countries had relatively similar access to efficient technologies and vehicles. This study aims to apply some well established political science theories on the particular example of climate change mitigation in the transport sector in order to identify some of the factors that could help explain the variations in success of policies and strategies in this sector. The analysis suggests that institutional arrangements that contribute to consensus building in the political process provide a high level of political and policy stability which is vital to long-term changes in energy end-use sectors that rely on long-term investments. However, there is no direct correlation between institutional structures, e.g. corporatism and success in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector. Environmental objectives need to be built into the consensus-based policy structure before actual policy progress can be observed. This usually takes longer in consensus democracies than in politically more agile majoritarian policy environments, but the policy stability that builds on corporatist institutional structures is likely to experience changes over a longer-term, in this case to a shift towards low-carbon transport that endures.
Many low-carbon transport strategies can help achieve other economic, social and environmental objectives. These include improving access to mobility, reducing traffic and parking congestion, saving consumers money, supporting economic development, increasing public health and safety, and reducing air and noise pollution. Based on Avoid-Shift-Improve approaches and case studies from Germany, Colombia, India and Singapore, this paper shows that low-carbon transport generates significant and quantifiable benefits that can create a basis for political and societal coalitions.
Estimates suggest that currently available and cost effective measures can reduce transport Greenhouse Gas emissions by 40-50% compared to 2010. Yet, a number of barriers affect the optimal exploitation of this potential. Considering the possible economic, social and environmental benefits of sustainable transport, the shift towards a low-carbon pathway of this sector can be a win-win situation for climate protection and local development goals. This paper aims to make a contribution to understand these opportunities by highlighting the linkages between objectives, presenting case studies, facts and figures. The paper will also explore assessment methodologies and tools that can help practitioners to assess sustainable development benefits (SDB) and providing evidence for policy-makers to make more informed decisions on transport investments and polices.
This article analyses the human rights implications of projects under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). While the CDM is likely to expire in the near future, the experience gained should be used to inform the rules of the new mechanism to be established under the 2015 Paris Agreement. We argue that the CDM and the new mechanism, as international organizations under the guidance of UNFCCC member states, should apply the UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights. Based on the experience drawn from three case studies (two hydro power projects in Barro Blanco, Panama, and Bujagali, Uganda, and one geothermal energy project in Olkaria, Kenya), we show that CDM projects, while in formal compliance with CDM rules, can lead to a number of human rights infringements. We conclude with a number of recommendations on how to achieve a greater recognition of human rights in the new mechanism under the Paris Agreement.
In order to analyse the mid- and long-term impacts of energy related policies, different modelling approaches can be derived. However, the results of even the best energy system model will highly depend on the underlying input data. First, in this contribution the importance and availability issues of grid data in the context of energy system modelling are highlighted. Second, this paper focuses on power grid modelling based on open and publicly available data from OpenStreetMap using open source software tools. Two recent approaches developed to build electrical transmission network models using openly available data sources are presented and discussed. The proposed methods provide transparent assumptions, simplifications and documentation of grid modelling. This results in the ability of scientists and other stakeholders to validate, discuss or reproduce the results of energy system models. Thus the new open approaches offer a unique opportunity to increase transparency, comparability and reproducibility of results in energy system modelling.
In recent years, a number of energy scenario studies which aim to advise policy makers on appropriate energy policy measures have been developed. These studies highlight changes required to achieve a future energy system that is in line with public policy goals such as reduced greenhouse gas emissions and an affordable energy supply. We argue that behavioural changes towards energy-sufficient lifestyles have considerable potential to contribute to public policy goals and may even be indispensable for achieving some of these goals. This potential should, therefore, be reflected in scenario studies aiming to provide comprehensive advice to policy makers. We analyse the role that energy-sufficient lifestyles play in prominent recent global energy scenario studies and find that these studies largely ignore the potential of possible behavioural changes towards energy-sufficient lifestyles. We also describe how such changes have been considered in several other scenario studies, in order to derive recommendations for the future development of global energy scenarios. We conclude that the inclusion of lifestyle changes in energy scenarios is both possible and useful. Based on our findings, we present some general advice for energy scenario developers on how to better integrate sufficiency into future energy scenario studies in a quantitative manner.
Transitions towards sustainability are urgently needed to address the interconnected challenges of economic development, ecological integrity, and social justice, from local to global scales. Around the world, collaborative science-society initiatives are forming to conduct experiments in support of sustainability transitions. Such experiments, if carefully designed, provide significant learning opportunities for making progress on transition efforts. Yet, there is no broadly applicable evaluative scheme available to capture this critical information across a large number of cases, and to guide the design of transition experiments. To address this gap, the article develops such a scheme, in a tentative form, drawing on evaluative research and sustainability transitions scholarship, alongside insights from empirical cases. We critically discuss the scheme's key features of being generic, comprehensive, operational, and formative. Furthermore, we invite scholars and practitioners to apply, reflect and further develop the proposed tentative scheme - making evaluation and experiments objects of learning.
Accelerating the diffusion of domestic biogas is considered to be a promising option for reaching the goal of universal access to energy by 2030, particularly for the provision of cooking energy for rural populations in developing countries. The aim of this study is to develop a systematic account of the factors that influence the diffusion of domestic biogas technologies. To achieve this objective, a three step analysis approach is applied. In the first step, a conceptual model is built based on insights from scholars that have been studying the diffusion of energy innovations in rural contexts. In the next step, a qualitative content analysis of scientific literature is undertaken to test and refine the categories proposed by the conceptual model and to systematically organise the empirical evidence of the factors that influence the diffusion of domestic biogas in developing and emerging countries. The systemised evidence is used to identify the components and interactions between the household configurations and socio-economic context that determine both the adoption process at household level and the overall technology diffusion. Finally, in the last step, we reflect on the implications of the resultant systematic conceptualisation regarding the purpose and design of programmes promoting the dissemination of domestic biogas technologies.
Replacing traditional technologies by renewables can lead to an increase of emissions during early diffusion stages if the emissions avoided during the use phase are exceeded by those associated with the deployment of new units. Based on historical developments and on counterfactual scenarios in which we assume that selected renewable technologies did not diffuse, we conclude that onshore and offshore wind energy have had a positive contribution to climate change mitigation since the beginning of their diffusion in EU27. In contrast, photovoltaic panels did not pay off from an environmental standpoint until very recently, since the benefits expected at the individual plant level were offset until 2013 by the CO2 emissions related to the construction and deployment of the next generation of panels. Considering the varied energy mixes and penetration rates of renewable energies in different areas, several countries can experience similar time gaps between the installation of the first renewable power plants and the moment in which the emissions from their infrastructure are offset.
The analysis demonstrates that the time-profile of renewable energy emissions can be relevant for target-setting and detailed policy design, particularly when renewable energy strategies are pursued in concert with carbon pricing through cap-and-trade systems.
After two decades of privatization and outsourcing being the dominant trends across public services, an inclination towards founding new municipal power utilities can be observed. In this article, the authors examine the preservation strategies of the German energy regime following the transition approach developed by Geels. From the multi-level perspective, it can be stated that innovations take place in niches and have to overcome the obstacles and persistence of the conventional fossil-nuclear energy regime. Through an empirical analysis, it can be concluded that the established regime significantly delays the decentralization process required for a transformation of energy structures on local electricity grids. Furthermore, it is shown that municipal utilities (Stadtwerke) are important key actors for the German Energiewende (energy transition) as they function as local energy distributors and they meet a variety of requirements to promote fundamental structural change. The trend towards re-municipalization and the re-establishment of municipal utilities reveal the desire to further strengthen the scope of local politics.
"Energiewende", which roughly translates as the transformation of the German energy sector in accordance with the imperatives of climate change, may soon become a byword for the corresponding processes most other developed countries are at various stages of undergoing. Germany's notable progress in this area offers valuable insights that other states can draw on in implementing their own transitions. The German state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) is making its own contribution to achieving the Energiewende's ambitious objectives: in addition to funding an array of "clean and green" projects, the Virtual Institute Power to Gas and Heat was established as a consortium of seven scientific and technical organizations whose aim is to inscribe a future, renewable-based German energy system with adequate flexibility. Thus, it is tasked with conceiving of and evaluating suitable energy path options. This paper outlines one of the most promising of these pathways, which is predicated on the use of electrolytically-produced hydrogen as an energy storage medium, as well as the replacement of hydrocarbon-based fuel for most road vehicles. We describe and evaluate this path and place it in a systemic context, outlining a case study from which other countries and federated jurisdictions therein may draw inspiration.
The article gives insights into the implementation process of sustainable management strategies in the food service sector. Furthermore, the normative requirements for sustainability in form of a mission statement, called "sustainable food services" are presented. The authors perceive this mission statement as a means to transfer current political demands (as in the SDG of the UN) into the sector. It could serve as a model for the entire food service sector to support and facilitate implementing aspects of sustainability into business practices with the help of sustainable management tools.
The growing demand for wood to meet EU renewable energy targets has increasingly come under scrutiny for potentially increasing EU import dependence and inducing land use change abroad, with associated impacts on the climate and biodiversity. This article builds on research accounting for levels of primary timber consumption - e.g., toward forest footprints - and developing reference values for benchmarking sustainability - e.g., toward land use targets - in order to improve systemic monitoring of timber and forest use. Specifically, it looks at future trends to assess how current EU policy may impact forests at an EU and global scale. Future demand scenarios are based on projections derived and adapted from the literature to depict developments under different scenario assumptions. Results reveal that by 2030, EU consumption levels on a per capita basis are estimated to be increasingly disproportionate compared to the rest of the world. EU consumption scenarios based on meeting around a 40% share of the EU renewable energy targets with timber would overshoot both the EU and global reference value range for sustainable supply capacities in 2030. Overall, findings support literature pointing to an increased risk of problem shifting relating to both how much and where timber needed for meeting renewable energy targets is sourced. It is argued that a sustainable level of timber consumption should be characterized by balance between supply (what the forest can provide on a sustainable basis) and demand (how much is used on a per capita basis, considering the concept of fair shares). To this end, future research should close data gaps, increase methodological robustness and address the socio-political legitimacy of the safe operating space concept towards targets in the future. A re-use of timber within the economy should be supported to increase supply options.
We present the results of a regression analysis of a large-scale integrated user online application that surveys natural resource use and subjective well-being in Germany. We analyse more than 44,000 users who provided information on their natural resource consumption (material footprint) as well as their personal socio-economic and socio-psychological characteristics. We determine an average material footprint of 26 tonnes per person per year. In addition, we endeavour to determine how much environment humans need by regressing natural resource use as well as relevant socio-economic and socio-psychological features on subjective well-being. We establish a slightly negative correlation between subjective well-being and material footprints. A higher material footprint is associated with lower subjective well-being. We conclude that consumer policies seeking to promote sustainable behaviour should highlight the fact that a lower material footprint may result in greater subjective well-being.
This paper analyses India's participation in more than two decades of global climate politics. India has transitioned from a protest voice on the fringes of global climate policy to one that is actively shaping international efforts to combat climate change. Analysis of the drivers behind India's negotiating positions on climate change thus far has focused on the competing motives of equity and co-benefits, which has however been insufficient to explain some of India's recent actions in global climate governance. There is a gap in the literature with regards to the analysis of Indian climate policy as situated in its larger foreign policy agenda and objectives. This paper studies the evolution of India's climate policy through the perspective of its broader foreign policy strategy, arguing that India's engagement with international climate politics can be better understood by locating its climate policy as a subset of its foreign policy agenda. Shifts in India's climate change negotiation stance in the past decade have been but a part of its overall foreign policy adjustments in favour of greater responsibility in management of the global commons. Going forward, tracking Indian foreign policy objectives will yield vital clues towards India’s role in global climate action.
Out of the comfort zone! : Governing the exnovation of unsustainable technologies and practices
(2017)
Innovations are important for sustainability transformations, yet often prove insufficient for replacing established unsustainable structures. The promotion of renewable energy, for example, has been insufficient for pushing coal out of the energy market. The prevalent "innovation bias" should be overcome by complementing innovation politics and research with a stronger occupation with the purposive termination of unsustainable technologies, products and practices. This article therefore introduces the concept of "exnovation" and discusses the need of, as well as different approaches for, the governance of exnovation processes.
Modelling studies which project pathways for the future of energy in India currently have several implicit assumptions with regards to the social, institutional, and political changes necessary for energy transitions. This paper focuses on the specific question of land use change required for realising ambitious clean energy targets. Demand for land is likely to be a critical question in India's energy future given the challenges with land acquisition in the country as a result of high population density and significant rights enjoyed by landowners. Yet, there is a lack of literature relevant to India which makes a quantitative assessment of the land use impacts of different types of low carbon technologies. I calculate and compare the land requirements in India of ground based solar photovoltaic (PV) power, nuclear power, and wind energy. All three types of technologies are expected to grow substantially as a share of India's electricity mix in the coming years. The analysis suggests that land demands of ground based solar PV are likely to be substantial compared to wind energy and nuclear power, and some policy suggestions are provided which may help mitigate that challenge.
What can reasonably be expected from the UNFCCC process and the climate conference in Paris 2015? To achieve transformative change, prevailing unsustainable routines embedded in socio-economic systems have to be translated into new and sustainable ones. This article conceptualizes the UNFCCC and the associated policy processes as a catalyst for this translation by applying a structurational regime model. This model provides an analytical distinction of rules (norms and shared meaning) and resources (economic resources as well as authoritative and allocative power) and allows us to conceptualize agency on various levels, including beyond nation states. The analysis concludes that the UNFCCC's narrow focus on emission targets, which essentially is a focus on resources, has proven ineffective. In addition, the static division of industrialized and developing countries in the Convention's annexes and the consensus-based decision-making rules have impeded ambitious climate protection. The article concludes that the UNFCCC is much better equipped to provide rules for climate protection activities and should consciously expand this feature to improve its impact.
Africa and in particular African Least Developed Countries have to a large extent been neglected by the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). This article reviews the mechanism's performance in the region and highlights current developments. The analysis is based on a quantitative breakdown of data provided by the United Nations Environment Programme and Technical University of Denmark (UNEP/DTU) CDM Pipeline and was complemented by interviews with selected investors. The findings indicate that despite the various support measures for underrepresented regions, the overall share of African CDM activities continues to be low. The significant rise in the share of Programmes of Activities of recent years cannot make up for the continuing low numbers of African stand-alone projects. Further, the collapse of the compliance market has proved fatal in terms of timing: ongoing efforts to support the development of a genuine African carbon market were suffocated by the lack of demand for Certified Emission Reductions at a moment when capacity building had started to bear fruit. Consequently, instead of being a mitigation tool with significant scale, the future role of the CDM in Africa might be limited to the voluntary market, while at the same time serving as a tool to foster sustainable development, with mitigation benefits.
Article 6 of the Paris Agreement establishes three approaches for countries to cooperate with each other in implementing their climate protection contributions. However, Article 6 sketches out only some basic contours; the details are to be filled in by further negotiations. This article surveys the views countries have submitted so far in order to identify the main issues at stake, points of controvery and convergence and possible ways forward. The submissions reveal some sharp differences in opinions on key issues such as the scope of the new mechanisms, how to operationalise the Article 6 requirement to increase ambition, whether to have international provisions on the promotion of sustainable development, and how to protect environmental integrity in the use of Article 6. The article concludes with a number of recommendations on how to address these controversies.
Reliably reducing the emissions in the building sector plays a crucial role if the 1.5°C climate target from the Paris Agreement is to be met. The observed trends show a significant increase in building energy use, especially in emerging economies. Counteracting these trends is absolutely essential, especially in the light of urbanisation, population growth and changing lifestyles. In terms of mitigating the climate impact of buildings, ensuring high levels of efficiency (i.e. very low energy needs, especially for heating and cooling) has the greatest potential for saving energy and emissions, and is at the same time the prerequisite for effective use of energy from renewable sources. Clearly defined targets and suitable metrics are essential to enable appropriate design decisions. Implemented projects clearly indicate that quality assured design and construction lead to reliable in-use energy performance. Effective policy packages to address opportunities and challenges are important drivers to support the uptake of state-of-the-art efficiency measures in the urban building sector.
An index of accessibility-based vulnerability is created based on a definition of transport-user vulnerability regarding transport accessibility created for the EMPOWER project, in order to assess the project's key performance indicator of the inclusion of vulnerable people in the project's scheme. The objective of the index is to account for various individual vulnerability aspects, but also for the "multi-dimensionality" of vulnerability, i.e. individuals may be vulnerable because of one specific aspect (e.g., disability), or they may be vulnerable because of multiple aspects which, if assessed in isolation, wouldn't classify the individual as vulnerable. Users of the project scheme in the Dutch city of Enschede are surveyed on, inter alia, their vulnerability based on this definition, according to their income, mobility budget, physical mobility, age, gender, living situation, nation of birth, and education. According to individual questions, 1% to 54% (single parents and females, respectively) of respondents have some level of vulnerability. According to the index, 23–36% of respondents can be considered to be vulnerable. Suitably modified for local conditions, the index is relevant to cities, especially quickly developing cities where congestion reduction is or has been a priority, insofar as it offers a way of measuring and monitoring the vulnerability of the users of their transport system. Finally, steps to adapt the index to other settings (cities or countries) are discussed.
Access to clean and affordable modern energy services has been widely recognised as a significant factor for enabling social and economic development. Stand-alone systems and mini-grids are presumed to play an important role in the provision of sustainable energy to those people who currently lack access. Accordingly, an increasing number of small-scale energy projects are being implemented in developing countries and emerging economies. However, despite the large number of energy development projects, only limited evidence exists about the actual contribution they make to sustainable development. This paper addresses this research gap by providing a systematic assessment of three selected impact pathways based on the evaluation of over 30 small-scale sustainable energy projects. Applying a theory-based evaluation approach in the form of a contribution analysis, the aim of this research is to better understand if and how these types of technical interventions can create development outcomes and impacts. The results show that technological issues are often not the most decisive factor in achieving development effects, but that embedding the technology in a set of actions that address social, cultural, economic and environmental aspects is essential.
It is widely recognised that access to sustainable and affordable energy services is a crucial factor in reducing poverty and enhancing development. Accordingly, various positive effects beyond simple access to energy are associated with the implementation of sustainable energy projects. One of these assumed positive outcomes is the productive use of energy, which is expected to create value - for example in the form of increased local availability of goods or higher incomes - thereby having a positive impact on local livelihoods. Many projects and programmes are based on such expectations regarding the productive use of energy but systematic evidence of these outcomes and impacts is still limited. This study analyses the results of an impact evaluation of 30 small-scale energy development projects to better understand whether and how the supply of sustainable energy services supports productive use activities and whether these activities have the expected positive impacts on local livelihoods. A contribution analysis is applied to systematically evaluate the impact pathways for the productive use of energy. The results show that access to sustainable energy does not automatically result in productive activities and that energy is only one of the input factors required to foster socio-economic development. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that activities, materials and information to support the productive use of energy - such as training, equipment or market research - need to be an integrated part of the energy project itself to allow for productive activities to develop on a wider scale.
The long-term transition towards a low-carbon transport sector is a key strategy in Europe. This includes the replacement of fossil fuels, modal shifts towards public transport as well as higher energy efficiency in the transport sector overall. While these energy savings are likely to reduce the direct greenhouse gas emissions of transport, they also require the production of new and different vehicles. This study analyses in detail whether final energy savings in the transport sector also induce savings for material resources from nature if the production of future vehicles is considered. The results for 28 member states in 2030 indicate that energy efficiency in the transport sector leads to lower carbon emissions as well as resource use savings. However, energy-efficient transport sectors can have a significant impact on the demand for metals in Europe. An additional annual demand for 28.4 Mt of metal ores was calculated from the personal transport sector in 2030 alone. The additional metal ores from semiprecious metals (e.g., copper) amount to 12.0 Mt, from precious metals (e.g., gold) to 9.1 Mt and from other metals (e.g., lithium) to 11.7 Mt, with small savings for ferrous metal ores (-4.6 Mt).
The water-energy-food (WEF) nexus is increasingly recognised as a conceptual framework able to support the efficient implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Despite growing attention paid to the WEF nexus, the role that renewable energies can play in addressing trade-offs and realising synergies has received limited attention. Until now, the focus of WEF nexus discussions and applications has mainly been on national or global levels, macro-level drivers, material flows and large infrastructure developments. This overlooks the fact that major nexus challenges are faced at local level. Aiming to address these knowledge gaps, the authors conduct a systematic analysis of the linkages between small-scale energy projects in developing countries and the food and water aspects of development. The analysis is based on empirical data from continuous process and impact evaluations complemented by secondary data and relevant literature. The study provides initial insights into how to identify interconnections and the potential benefits of integrating the nexus pillars into local level projects in the global south. The study identifies the complex links which exist between sustainable energy projects and the food and water sectors and highlights that these needs are currently not systematically integrated into project design or project evaluation. A more systematic approach, integrating the water and food pillars into energy planning at local level in the global south, is recommended to avoid trade-offs and enhance the development outcomes and impacts of energy projects.
The Paris Agreement calls on all nations to pursue efforts to contribute to limiting the global temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, due to limited global, regional and country-specific analysis of highly ambitious GHG mitigation pathways, there is currently a lack of knowledge about the transformational changes needed in the coming decades to reach this target. Through a meta-analysis of mitigation scenarios for Germany, this article aims to contribute to an improved understanding of the changes needed in the energy system of an industrialized country. Differentiation among six key long-term energy system decarbonization strategies is suggested, and an analysis is presented of how these strategies will be pursued until 2050 in selected technologically detailed energy scenarios for Germany. The findings show, that certain strategies, including the widespread use of electricity-derived synthetic fuels in end-use sectors as well as behavioral changes, are typically applied to a greater extent in mitigation scenarios aiming at high GHG emission reductions compared to more moderate mitigation scenarios. The analysis also highlights that the pace of historical changes observed in Germany between 2000 and 2015 is clearly insufficient to adequately contribute to not only the 1.5 °C target, but also the 2 °C long-term global target.
For many years, carbon capture and storage (CCS) has been discussed as a technology that may make a significant contribution to achieving major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. At present, however, only two large-scale power plants capture a total of 2.4 Mt CO2/a. Several reasons are identified for this mismatch between expectations and realised deployment. Applying bibliographic coupling, the research front of CCS, understood to be published peer-reviewed papers, is explored to scrutinise whether the current research is sufficient to meet these problems. The analysis reveals that research is dominated by technical research (69%). Only 31% of papers address non-technical issues, particularly exploring public perception, policy, and regulation, providing a broader view on CCS implementation on the regional or national level, or using assessment frameworks. This shows that the research is advancing and attempting to meet the outlined problems, which are mainly non-technology related. In addition to strengthening this research, the proportion of papers that adopt a holistic approach may be increased in a bid to meet the challenges involved in transforming a complex energy system. It may also be useful to include a broad variety of stakeholders in research so as to provide a more resilient development of CCS deployment strategies.
Transition modelling is an emerging but growing niche within the broader field of sustainability transitions research. The objective of this paper is to explore the characteristics of this niche in relation to a range of existing modelling approaches and literatures with which it shares commonalities or from which it could draw. We distil a number of key aspects we think a transitions model should be able to address, from a broadly acknowledged, empirical list of transition characteristics. We review some of the main strands in modelling of socio-technological change with regards to their ability to address these characteristics. These are: Eco-innovation literatures (energy-economy models and Integrated Assessment Models), evolutionary economics, complex systems models, computational social science simulations using agent based models, system dynamics models and socio-ecological systems models. The modelling approaches reviewed can address many of the features that differentiate sustainability transitions from other socio-economic dynamics or innovations. The most problematic features are the representation of qualitatively different system states and of the normative aspects of change. The comparison provides transition researchers with a starting point for their choice of a modelling approach, whose characteristics should correspond to the characteristics of the research question they face. A promising line of research is to develop innovative models of co-evolution of behaviours and technologies towards sustainability, involving change in the structure of the societal and technical systems.
The inclusion of references to human rights in the Paris Agreement was celebrated as a milestone towards greater integration of human rights in environmental and climate governance. Beyond their symbolic value, the significance of these provisions however depends on the extent to which they inform the implementation of the Paris Agreement both at the national and international levels. This article takes stock of the integration of human rights in climate governance and identifies concrete opportunities to ensure that human rights considerations are included in the Paris Implementation Guidelines to be adopted at COP-24, promoting climate action that aligns with Parties' human rights obligations. We first consider the relevance of human rights to climate action and the incremental recognition of these linkages in the international climate regime - both in the lead up to the adoption of the Paris Agreement and since. We then consider in specific terms how human rights could inform five key dimensions of the Paris Agreement's Implementation Guidelines: NDC guidance, adaptation communications, transparency framework, global stocktake, and the article 6 mechanisms. This article will reflect on past experience of how climate policy impacts human rights and on proposals put forward in the context of the negotiations of the implementation guidelines. It concludes with recommendations on a right-based approach to the implementation of the Paris Agreement.
This paper investigates the multimodal nature of urban congestion and network performance, with the aim of developing practice ready policy tools to alleviate the adverse effects of excess demand, no matter in which mode it realizes. As part of the efforts to get an overall understanding of how congestion is defined in various disciplines, we conduct a literature review of relevant engineering and microeconomics studies. The investigation reveals the main areas where contradiction can be identified between engineering and economics approaches. In a second step, we investigate the results of an expert survey about the principles of congestion analysis from a multimodal perspective. The main contribution of the paper is twofold. First, we draw attention to the pitfalls of oversimplified and narrow viewpoints on congestion. Second, we operationalize these principles in order to enable decision makers to assess the impact of urban transport measures on congestion.
Poor households in Germany and those that are close to the poverty line are more likely to suffer from increases in electricity costs. One consequence of this is the increasing number of cases in which the supplier disconnects a household's power. According to the Federal Network Agency (Bundesnetzagentur), a total of almost 359,000 interruptions of the electricity supply were caused in 2015 due to outstanding payments. In order to avoid disconnection from the electricity grid, more and more utility companies have begun to offer prepayment meters (PPMs) to their customers as a response to outstanding payments and a growing number of customers owing debts to their energy supplier. The phenomenon of an increasing number of households affected by energy poverty in Germany is new, and thus the number of PPMs is still low. As a result, experiences in this context are - compared to other countries (e.g. Great Britain) - far from extensive, and political awareness of the problem is low. This paper presents the findings of Germany's first scientific survey on experiences with the use of PPMs.
The German government aims to achieve virtually climate-neutral building stock by 2050 to tackle climate change. To realise this goal, comprehensive policy packages based on neoclassical economic theory are in place to foster energy efficiency investment. However, in the building sector, there is increasingly a gap between this aspiration and the reality. It is claimed that one of the main reasons for this is that the existing policy framework fails to address the specific characteristics and needs of different groups of building owners. This is a particular challenge in Germany, where 80% of all dwellings are owned privately and 37% are rented out by small private landlords (SPL). Despite the significant numbers of SPL, they often follow black box decision-making processes when considering energy renovations. In this study, the author uses an explanatory model to understand the decision-making processes of SPL, combining theoretical aspects from different research disciplines. This model was applied to a low-demand housing market in a neighbourhood in the Ruhr area. Eighteen semi-structured interviews (each lasting between 37 and 115 min) were conducted, demonstrating that in addition to economic factors, the values, beliefs, norms and routines of SPL - as well as their personal capabilities and contextual factors - play an important role in their decision-making. Based on the findings, recommendations are made for enhancing the effectiveness of existing energy efficiency policies and other supporting instruments (e.g. tenancy law and social legislation), tailored to the specific needs of SPL.
There is significant potential for family farming to contribute to several dimensions of the Sustainable Development Goals adopted by the United Nations General Assembly in 2015. Our research aims to provide insights to help strengthen sustainable family farming. We focus on initiatives that have advanced sustainable family farming innovations in Colombia and analyse the factors and dynamics that have led to the limited penetration of those innovations across the country. To that aim, a transformative methodology is applied involving representatives of farmers' associations, supporting organisations and researchers from various disciplinary fields. We analyse the network of initiatives against the conceptual background of sociotechnical niches and identify a stable niche where generic lessons are being systematically identified and used to establish replication projects. However, this niche is still limited in its breadth, which results in a low capacity for expansion and a strong dependency on international donors for reproducing experiences. Specific recommendations are outlined for broadening the type of actors involved in the interpretation and dissemination of lessons from the niche. Moreover, we outline suggestions for further research and conceptualisation in two directions: for exploring effective ways of broadening the niche and translating niche lessons to state policies and for deepening the understanding of interactions between the niche and other levels.
The paper describes patterns of resource use related to German households' equipment. Using cluster analysis and material flow accounting, data on socio-demographic characteristics, and expenditures on fuel, electricity and household equipment allow for a differentiation of seven different household types. The corresponding resource use, expressed in Material Footprint per person and year, is calculated based on cradle-to-gate material flows of average household goods and the related household energy use. Our results show that patterns of resource use are mainly driven by the use of fuel and electricity and the ownership of cars. The quantified Material Footprints correlate to social status and are also linked to city size, age and household size. Affluent, established and/or younger families living in rural areas typically show the highest amounts of durables and expenditures on non-durables, thus exhibiting the highest use of natural resources.
The experience curve theory assumes that technology costs decline as experience of a technology is gained through production and use. This article reviews the literature on the experience curve theory and its empirical evidence in the field of electricity generation technologies. Differences in the characteristics of experience curves found in the literature are systematically presented and the limitations of the experience curve theory, as well as its use in energy models, are discussed. The article finds that for some electricity generation technologies, especially small-scale modular technologies, there has been a remarkably strong (negative) relationship between experience and cost for several decades. Conversely, for other technologies, especially large-scale and highly complex technologies, the experience curve does not appear to be a useful tool for explaining cost changes over time. The literature review suggests that when analysing past cost developments and projecting future cost developments, researchers should be aware that factors other than experience may have significant influence. It may be worthwhile trying to incorporate some of these additional factors into energy system models, although considerable uncertainties remain in quantifying the relevance of some of these factors.
Energy system optimization models (ESOMs) such as MARKAL/TIMES are used to support energy policy analysis worldwide. ESOMs cover the full life-cycle of fuels from extraction to end-use, including the associated direct emissions. Nevertheless, the life-cycle emissions of energy equipment and infrastructure are not modelled explicitly. This prevents analysis of questions relating to the relative importance of emissions associated with the build-up of infrastructure and other equipment required for decarbonization.
Tackling fuel poverty has become an increasingly important issue on many European countries' political agendas. Consequently, national governments, local authorities and NGOs have established policies and programmes to reduce the fuel poverty vulnerability of households. However, evaluations of such policies and programmes show that they barely reach those who are most in need. The reasons for this failure are diverse and include fuel poverty measurement metrics, local scale data availability and policy design. This raises the question of how fuel poor homes can be more effectively identified and targeted to ensure that limited local and national budgets are used to benefit those who most need help.
Area-based approaches, which pinpoint spatial units highly affected by fuel poverty due to their specific characteristics, offer an opportunity for creating more tailored policies and programmes. In this study, the author developed a GIS-MCDA (Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis), using an AHP (Analytical Hierarchy Process) and applied the approach to the German city of Oberhausen. The overall issue of fuel poverty was broken down into three vulnerability dimensions (heating burden, socio-economic and building vulnerability), the relative importance of fuel poverty criteria and the dimensions were evaluated by experts, and an overall Fuel Poverty Index was created to assess the relative fuel poverty vulnerability of 168 urban neighbourhoods.
The analysis offers insights into the spatial pattern of fuel poverty within a city and thus provides an opportunity to channel efforts towards households in those neighbourhoods most in need. It also demonstrates that a trade-off between ecological and social targets should be considered in the development of future policies for tackling fuel poverty.
Climate change induces various risks for supply chains of manufacturing firms. However, surveys have suggested that only a minority of firms conducts strategic adaptations, which we define as anticipatory and target-oriented action with the purpose of increasing resilience to climate change. While several barrier-centered studies have investigated the causality of non-adaptation in industry, the examined barriers are often not problem-specific. Furthermore, it has been shown that even in cases when managers perceive no barriers to adaptation at all, strategic adaptations may still not be conducted. On this background, the present analysis focuses on the logic of adaptive inaction, which we conceive, in particular, as inaction with regard to strategic adaptations. Adopting an action-theoretical perspective, the study examines (a) which aspects may shape the rationality of adaptive inaction among managers, (b) which more condensed challenges of conducting strategic adaptations emerge for managers, and (c) how the theoretical propositions can be tested. For this purpose, the study employs an exploratory approach. Thus, hypotheses on such aspects are explored, which may shape the rationality of adaptive inaction among managers. Subsequently, predictions are inferred from the theoretical propositions, which allow testing their empirical relevance. Methodologically, the hypotheses are explored by reexamining existing explanatory approaches from literature based on a set of pretheoretical assumptions, which include notions of bounded rationality. As a result, the study proposes 13 aspects which may constrain managers in conducting adaptations in such a way, which serves the economic utility of the firm. By condensing these aspects, 4 major challenges for managers are suggested: the challenges of (a) conducting long-term adaptations, of (b) conducting adaptations at an early point in time, of (c) conducting adaptations despite uncertain effects of the measures, and of (d) conducting adaptations despite cross-tier dependencies in supply chains. Finally, the study shows how the propositions can be tested and outlines a research agenda based on the developed theoretical suggestions.
Nutrition is responsible for about 30% of global natural resource use. In order to limit the negative impact the nutritional sector has on the environment and on society, the consumption and processing of foodstuffs with assumed low negative impact is an important topic in the effort of sustainable development. In professional kitchens, clearly defined indicators assessing the impact of business activities are needed in this effort. The research and development in the NAHGAST project provides groundwork that could be of important assistance in this effort. Two versions of an assessment tool, with indicators of different complexity (NAHGAST Meal-Basic and NAHGAST Meal-Pro), were developed that can be used by kitchen professionals to determine the sustainability performance of their products - the offered meal. An informed selection of indicators, and a discussion of what processes and impacts this indicator relates to in the wider context, are essential and are discussed in this paper. Furthermore, in the selection of indicators for the purpose of our research certain criteria were considered simultaneously: (1) Communicability - What information an indicator can communicate and how comprehensible this information is for different actors; (2) Feasibility and data availability - Whether there is sufficient data for an indicator to be included and whether it is realistic for companies to integrate this indicator in their daily work practice; and (3) Scientific relevance - Whether the indicator is relevant for sustainability efforts on a larger scale and for related discussions in the scientific community. Insights related to these considerations are valuable for future developments in sustainability assessment in out-of-home gastronomy. The tool has been used to evaluate a number of dishes and results are deemed meaningful. However, assessments must not be understood as an accurate measurement but as an approximation of the sustainability of meals. At the level of individual indicators, they allow a detailed analysis and targeted optimization of recipes, while the aggregated results in the form of labels can be communicated well to customers. However, deficiencies and challenges, as discovered in the application phase of the project, demonstrate research gaps in the wider context. Finally, further steps for an integration of the tool in company processes and remaining options for companies to adjust the tool are discussed.
In this paper we highlight the importance of structural dimensions of real-world laboratories (RwLs). Giddens' structuration theory provides a promising framework to better understand the interlinked abstract and physical (infra-)structural features of RwLs. We argue that research on and in RwLs needs to be sensitive to the spatial, temporal, and thematic scope of structuration processes. A systematic conceptualization of these dimensions remains an important task for future research. In order to arrive at such a more in-depth understanding and possibly an improvement in the transferability of knowledge created in RwLs, the idea proposed by the WBGU should be taken up: building RwLs for the long term and focusing more explicitly on their structural dimensions. First steps have been taken in the German city of Wuppertal where a RwL infrastructure has been built up over the course of various projects including a broad variety of resources, actors, and topics in the broader search and learning process for sustainable transitioning.
Jointly experimenting for transformation? : Shaping real-world laboratories by comparing them
(2018)
Real-world laboratories (RwLs, German Reallabore) belong to a family of increasingly popular experimental and transdisciplinary research approaches at the science-society interface. As these approaches in general, and RwLs in particular, often lack clear definitions of key characteristics and their operationalization, we make two contributions in this article. First, we identify five core characteristics of RwLs: contribution to transformation, experimental methods, transdisciplinary research mode, scalability and transferability of results, as well as scientific and societal learning and reflexivity. Second, we compare RwLs to similar research approaches according to the five characteristics. In this way, we provide an orientation on experimental and transdisciplinary research for societal transformations, and reveal the contributions of this type of research in supporting societal change. Our findings enable learning across the different approaches and highlight their complementarities, with a particular focus on RwLs.
New energy technologies may fail to make the transition to the market once research funding has ended due to a lack of private engagement to conclude their development. Extending public funding to cover such experimental developments could be one way to improve this transition. However, identifying promising research and development (R&D) proposals for this purpose is a difficult task for the following reasons: Close-to-market implementations regularly require substantial resources while public budgets are limited; the allocation of public funds needs to be fair, open, and documented; the evaluation is complex and subject to public sector regulations for public engagement in R&D funding. This calls for a rigorous evaluation process. This paper proposes an operational three-staged decision support system (DSS) to assist decision-makers in public funding institutions in the ex-ante evaluation of R&D proposals for large-scale close-to-market projects in energy research. The system was developed based on a review of literature and related approaches from practice combined with a series of workshops with practitioners from German public funding institutions. The results confirm that the decision-making process is a complex one that is not limited to simply scoring R&D proposals. Decision-makers also have to deal with various additional issues such as determining the state of technological development, verifying market failures or considering existing funding portfolios. The DSS that is suggested in this paper is unique in the sense that it goes beyond mere multi-criteria aggregation procedures and addresses these issues as well to help guide decision-makers in public institutions through the evaluation process.
In this perspective article, we undertake a brief empirical analysis of the dominant narratives in debates around India's energy future. India has ambitious goals for increasing renewable energy and enabling universal energy access, but there is little social consensus on how these goals should be achieved. We find two compelling narratives in energy policy debates in the country: "energy for development" that privileges energy as critical to economic growth and long term strategic security; and "energy for all" that prioritises the role of energy for basic development and ending poverty. We find that while these narratives find common ground on certain issues such as the role of coal, they clash in the socio-technical imaginaries they represent about India’s energy future. Indian energy policy has been characterised so far by top down, centralised policymaking. With this article, we highlight the societal choices that are inherent in discussions about transformations in India's electricity sector and call for further research on the socio-cultural dimensions of future energy pathways in India.
Combined heat and power (CHP) production in buildings is one of the mitigation options available for achieving a considerable decrease in GHG emissions. Micro-CHP (mCHP) fuel cells are capable of cogenerating electricity and heat very efficiently on a decentralised basis. Although they offer clear environmental benefits and have the potential to create a systemic change in energy provision, the diffusion of mCHP fuel cells is rather slow. There are numerous potential drivers for the successful diffusion of fuel cell cogeneration units, but key economic actors are often unaware of them. This paper presents the results of a comprehensive analysis of barriers, drivers and business opportunities surrounding micro-CHP fuel-cell units (up to 5 kWel) in the German building market. Business opportunities have been identified based not only on quantitative data for drivers and barriers, but also on discussions with relevant stakeholders such as housing associations, which are key institutional demand-side actors. These business opportunities include fuel cell contracting as well as the development of a large lighthouse project to demonstrate the climate-neutral, efficient use of fuel cells in the residential building sector. The next step could involve the examination and development of more detailed options and business models. The approach and methods used in the survey may be applied on a larger scale and in other sectors.
Background: For a successful transition to a sustainable energy system, not only technical but also social innovations are required. A major challenge to social innovation research is how to translate the social innovation from a novelty with big potential into a mainstream practice. The multilevel perspective (MLP) of socio-technical transitions provides a heuristic to understand how niches can potentially break through to the regime level. In this paper, we examine in how far a multilevel perspective approach is suited to analyze and better understand diffusion trajectories of social rather than technological innovations, taking a social practice theory perspective. Five example projects, selected among the top social innovations for the Energiewende in North Rhine-Westphalia, are analyzed. We discuss to what extend the MLP provides a helpful tool to understand the transition processes.
Results: Social innovations can be very divers. We find that the MLP does not offer a one-size-fits-all framework for the analysis of the diffusion of social innovations. The MLP proves applicable only in those cases where the social innovation (1) can lead to a system change and (2) has a clear competing or symbiotic relationship with an existing regime.
Conclusions: Social innovations that aim to be transformative in the sense that they have the goal to be system changing (rather than incremental) can be analyzed along the heuristics of the MLP. For this type of social innovation, the MLP can be fruitful to learn to better understand the diffusion dynamics of social innovation and the barriers and drivers they might face. However, for social innovations that aim at incremental improvements without challenging the existing system, the MLP cannot be applied to study the diffusion process.
The production of commodities by energy-intensive industry is responsible for 1/3 of annual global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The climate goal of the Paris Agreement, to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C, requires global GHG emissions reach net-zero and probably negative by 2055-2080. Given the average economic lifetime of industrial facilities is 20 years or more, this indicates all new investment must be net-zero emitting by 2035-2060 or be compensated by negative emissions to guarantee GHG-neutrality. We argue, based on a sample portfolio of emerging and near-commercial technologies for each sector (largely based on zero carbon electricity & heat sources, biomass and carbon capture, and catalogued in an accompanying database), that reducing energy-intensive industrial GHG emissions to Paris Agreement compatible levels may not only be technically possible, but can be achieved with sufficient prioritization and policy effort. We then review policy options to drive innovation and investment in these technologies. From this we synthesize a preliminary integrated strategy for a managed transition with minimum stranded assets, unemployment, and social trauma that recognizes the competitive and globally traded nature of commodity production. The strategy includes: an initial policy commitment followed by a national and sectoral stakeholder driven pathway process to build commitment and identify opportunities based on local zero carbon resources; penetration of near-commercial technologies through increasing valuation of GHG material intensity through GHG pricing or flexible regulations with protection for competitiveness and against carbon leakage; research and demand support for the output of pilot plants, including some combination of guaranteed above-market prices that decline with output and an increasing requirement for low carbon inputs in government procurement; and finally, key supporting institutions.
The international governance landscape on climate change mitigation is increasingly complex across multiple governance levels. Climate change mitigation initiatives by non-state stakeholders can play an important role in governing global climate change. The article addresses the relationship between intergovernmental and transnational governance processes in global climate governance. Particularly, the article aims to complement existing research on the role of "orchestration" by and through the UNFCCC process by focusing on how successful transnational initiatives can resonate within the intergovernmental negotiation process in order to inspire more ambitious climate action also on the part of national governments. This issue is addressed by systematically analysing interdependencies between transnational and international governance. Building on a structurational regime model, the article develops a theory of change of how and through which structuration channels non-state initiatives can contribute to changing the politics of international climate policy, traces existing UNFCCC processes and the Paris Agreement with a view to identifying inroads for a more direct feedback from non-state initiatives and derives recommendations on how and under which agenda items positive experiences can resonate within the UNFCCC negotiation process.
Real-world laboratories (RwLs) often put researchers in highly demanding research contexts regarding their roles and self-conceptions. Helpful roles of researchers have been described but still little is known about the factors influencing the adoption of certain roles. Using data from three parallel RwLs in Wuppertal, Germany, we found four roles of researchers: the reflective scientist, the facilitator, the change agent and the (self-)reflexive scientist. We sequenced the RwLs into situations and analysed them by RwL process steps and conditions, considering the roles of researchers as outcomes. Although the conditions convey only limited explanatory power, there was a consistent picture that being pressured to carry out real-world action, having a practice partner with fewer resources and working without a functional project group is (in conjunction) sufficient to cause the researcher to partake in activities beyond conventional research. Process steps played a minor role. Our research on factors influencing the adoption of roles may help RwL researchers to perform their roles as intended.
Considering the role of transport for a 1.5 Degree stabilization pathway and the importance of light-duty vehicle fuel efficiency within that, it is important to understand the key elements of a policy package to shape the energy efficiency of the vehicle fleet. This paper presents an analysis focusing on three types of policy measures: (1) CO2 emission standards for new vehicles, (2) vehicle taxation directly and indirectly based on CO2 emission levels, and (3) fuel taxation. The paper compares the policies in the G20 economies and estimates the financial impact of those policies using the example of a Ford Focus vehicle model. This analysis is a contribution to the assessment of the role of the transport sector in global decarbonisation efforts. The findings of this paper show that only an integrated approach of regulatory and fiscal policy measures can yield substantial efficiency gains in the vehicle fleet and can curb vehicle kilometres travelled by individual motorised transport. Using the illustrative example of one vehicle model, the case study analysis shows that isolated measures, e.g. fuel efficiency regulation without corresponding fuel and vehicle taxes only have minor CO2 emission reduction effects and that policy measures need to be combined in order to achieve substantial emission reduction gains over time. The analysis shows that the highest level of impact is achieved by a combination regulatory and fiscal policies rather than only one policy even if this policy is more aggressive. When estimating the quantitative effect of fuel efficiency standards, vehicle and fuel tax, the analysis shows that substantial gains with regard to CO2 emission are only achieved at a financial impact level above 500 Euros over a four year period.
Previous studies showed that using carbon dioxide (CO2) as a raw material for chemical syntheses may provide an opportunity for achieving greenhouse gas (GHG) savings and a low-carbon economy. Nevertheless, it is not clear whether carbon capture and utilization benefits the environment in terms of resource efficiency. We analyzed the production of methane, methanol, and synthesis gas as basic chemicals and derived polyoxymethylene, polyethylene, and polypropylene as polymers by calculating the output-oriented indicator global warming impact (GWI) and the resource-based indicators raw material input (RMI) and total material requirement (TMR) on a cradle-to-gate basis. As carbon source, we analyzed the capturing of CO2 from air, raw biogas, cement plants, lignite-fired power, and municipal waste incineration plants. Wind power serves as an energy source for hydrogen production. Our data were derived from both industrial processes and process simulations. The results demonstrate that the analyzed CO2-based process chains reduce the amount of GHG emissions in comparison to the conventional ones. At the same time, the CO2-based process chains require an increased amount of (abiotic) resources. This trade-off between decreased GHG emissions and increased resource use is assessed. The decision about whether or not to recycle CO2 into hydrocarbons depends largely on the source and amount of energy used to produce hydrogen.
The Paris Agreement (PA) emphasizes the intrinsic relationship between climate change and sustainable development (SD) and welcomes the 2030 agenda for the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Yet, there is a lack of assessment approaches to ensure that climate and development goals are achieved in an integrated fashion and trade-offs avoided. Article 6.4 of the PA introduces a new Sustainable Mitigation Mechanism (SMM) with the dual aim to contribute to the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and foster SD. The Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has a similar objective and in 2014, the CDM SD tool was launched by the Executive Board of the CDM to highlight the SD benefits of CDM activities. This article analyses the usefulness of the CDM SD tool for stakeholders and compares the SD tool's SD reporting requirements against other flexible mechanisms and multilateral standards to provide recommendations for improvement. A key conclusion is that the Paris Agreement's SMM has a stronger political mandate than the CDM to measure that SD impacts are "real, measurable and long-term". Recommendations for an improved CDM SD tool are a relevant starting point to develop rules, modalities, and procedures for SD assessment in Article 6.4 as well as for other cooperative mitigation approaches.
The transformative research approach of Real-World Laboratories (RWL) has recently attracted attention in German sustainability science. Some definitions and understandings have been published, but guidelines and procedural quality criteria for establishing and running a RWL are still missing. To address this gap, this article has two aims. First, it aims to derive key components of RWLs from the current discourse on RWLs and similar, but more elaborated research approaches. Second, it aims to transfer these key components into a comprehensive research practice. This practice is illustrated by the RWL process in the project "Well-being Transformation Wuppertal" (WTW).
Methodologically, the article builds on a review of RWL-related approaches for collaborative, intervention-oriented research. This includes transition management, transdisciplinary process models and action research. Based on this review, eight key components for RWLs are proposed. They position RWLs as a normatively framed approach that aims to contribute to local action for sustainable development and the empowerment of change agents. The approach uses transdisciplinary methods of knowledge integration and engages in cyclical real-world interventions within certain spatial and content-related boundaries.
The components are transferred into a flowchart, detailing process steps, aims, responsibilities and overall principles for putting RWLs into practice. Thus, a hitherto missing tool for designing and running RWLs is provided. Then, the RWL in the district of Mirke, Wuppertal, is used as an empirical example to illustrate the application of the flowchart and related key components. Consecutive discussions centre on the different roles of researchers and practitioners in the research process, as well as the relevance of an underlying theory of change for effective interventions. Finally, critical reflection, application and amendment of the proposed flowchart are encouraged
Environmentally extended multiregional input-output (EE MRIO) tables have emerged as a key framework to provide a comprehensive description of the global economy and analyze its effects on the environment. Of the available EE MRIO databases, EXIOBASE stands out as a database compatible with the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) with a high sectorial detail matched with multiple social and environmental satellite accounts. In this paper, we present the latest developments realized with EXIOBASE 3 - a time series of EE MRIO tables ranging from 1995 to 2011 for 44 countries (28 EU member plus 16 major economies) and five rest of the world regions. EXIOBASE 3 builds upon the previous versions of EXIOBASE by using rectangular supply-use tables (SUTs) in a 163 industry by 200 products classification as the main building blocks. In order to capture structural changes, economic developments, as reported by national statistical agencies, were imposed on the available, disaggregated SUTs from EXIOBASE 2. These initial estimates were further refined by incorporating detailed data on energy, agricultural production, resource extraction, and bilateral trade. EXIOBASE 3 inherits the high level of environmental stressor detail from its precursor, with further improvement in the level of detail for resource extraction. To account for the expansion of the European Union (EU), EXIOBASE 3 was developed with the full EU28 country set (including the new member state Croatia). EXIOBASE 3 provides a unique tool for analyzing the dynamics of environmental pressures of economic activities over time.
The growing demand for timber, in particular for renewable energy, increases pressures on global forests and requires a robust monitoring system to ensure sustainability. This article takes a first step toward more systemic monitoring by asking how the global use of forests by EU consumers can be accounted for. Specifically, this article builds on and develops the method of global land use accounting to account for the EU-27's consumption of primary timber between 2002 and 2011 in terms of both volume and forest area. It assesses international trade flows for around 100 commodities and converts them into a volume of primary raw timber based on conversion values. Results reveal that both imports and exports increased over the assessed time period, with primary EU-27 timber estimated to be around 1 m3/cap in 2011. Gaps, uncertainty and a lack of harmonization regarding especially trade data and conversion values are key challenges to further improving the robustness of the method and reliability of results. Future research may focus on improving the method to address in particular recycled and recovered flows as well as the question of whether area or volume is the most appropriate metric for further development of a forest footprint indicator.
Status and future dynamics of decentralised renewable energy niche building processes in Argentina
(2018)
Despite significant natural potential for renewable energy in Argentina and the political intention to generate 8% of electricity from renewable sources by 2017, by 2016 the share was only 1.95%. Although this aggregated picture appears unfavourable, several diverse initiatives promoting the development and application of decentralised renewable energy technologies are in place across the country. The aim of this study is to characterise those initiatives promoting decentralised renewable energy and to assess their potential role in inducing the wider transformation of the Argentinian energy system. To achieve this, we apply conceptualisations for the development of sociotechnical niches and use qualitative research techniques to characterise the sociotechnical dynamics of the decentralised renewable energy sector in Argentina. A niche in an advanced stage of development, in which lessons are systematically aggregated in networks, was identified and examples of generic lessons being used to frame new projects or programmes were also found. In addition to considering the internal niche development processes, we investigate how external factors affect the development of the niche. Finally, we suggest two possible development pathways by which the niche might exert stronger influence on the broader sustainability transformation of the Argentinian power system.
Urban areas, being responsible for large shares of global greenhouse gas emissions, are important arenas for achieving global decarbonisation. However, the systemic challenge of decarbonisation requires deep structural changes - transitions - that take place across multiple scales and along entire value chains. We argue in this article that understanding the role of urban areas for global decarbonisation therefore requires consideration of their context and analysis of urban areas' contributions to transitions that extend past the individual urban area. We develop an analytical framework that proposes three principal ways urban areas contribute to low-carbon transitions and ten competences that regional and local governance actors have to support them. We apply this framework to the Cologne metropolitan area in Germany to demonstrate the ability of our framework to relate urban-scale activities to more encompassing low-carbon transitions. The paper concludes with future research possibilities.
The global energy system is undergoing a major transition, and in energy planning and decision-making across governments, industry and academia, models play a crucial role. Because of their policy relevance and contested nature, the transparency and open availability of energy models and data are of particular importance. Here we provide a practical how-to guide based on the collective experience of members of the Open Energy Modelling Initiative (Openmod). We discuss key steps to consider when opening code and data, including determining intellectual property ownership, choosing a licence and appropriate modelling languages, distributing code and data, and providing support and building communities. After illustrating these decisions with examples and lessons learned from the community, we conclude that even though individual researchers' choices are important, institutional changes are still also necessary for more openness and transparency in energy research.
This paper reports on a nationwide field survey of managing energy efficiency of buildings under energy performance contracting (EPC) in Chinese building sector. The survey aims at getting insight of Chinese experiences of EPC and survey yielded information on profile, specificity and risk specifications of EPC in Chinese building sector. The key findings are that the existing EPC projects are mainly driven by policies and majority of first parties in EPC are owners of public buildings. The contract specificity is worryingly low, with underspecification prominent in the contract sections of renewal and change of the planned solutions, dispute resolution and compensation for personal and property damage. Insufficient risk specification was a major cause of contract failure and disputing. High risks are observed in not enough feasibility study, delay in completion, operational risks, delay in payment and uninsured loss. Most post EPC projects would be worryingly unsuccessful, given to the facts that many of them have not established their energy team, have no further investment and have no effective maintenance. The Chinese existing emission trading scheme (ETS) offers a vital opportunity for upscaling EPC in building sector and policy framing is needed for linking EPC projects and ETS.
The implications of how climate funds conceptualize transformational change in developing countries
(2018)
The search for globally coordinated mitigation strategies that could contribute effectively towards bridging the gap between current emissions reduction efforts and a rapidly closing 2°C climate target remains contentious. The participation of developing countries through Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) is emerging as a crucial feature to attain this goal. Against this background, two of the major NAMA funding agencies have embraced "transformational change (TC)" and "paradigm shifts" as policy concepts. Yet, their operationalization within aid management approaches has not been fully justified. Concurrently, academic interest in theories of sustainability transitions has been growing, out of which the Transition Management (TM) approach provides the theoretical inspiration to study, and eventually promote, systemic TCs. However, there is still limited knowledge with which to contextualize the steering of such transitions to different settings. This article engages in these debates by reviewing the theoretical grounding behind the Green Climate Fund and the NAMA Facility's conceptualizations of TC through NAMA interventions against the corresponding theoretical assumptions of TM. Based on a critical review of relevant literature, it is argued that the logical framework-based approach adopted by the funds contains implicit assumptions of causality, which do not adequately cater for the uncertainties, non-linearity and feedback loops inherent in transition processes. The incorporation of more adaptive and reflexive elements is proposed as an alternative. This paper contributes to existing knowledge by critically reflecting on the applicability of TM towards governing sociotechnical transitions in the developing world and by exposing the limitations behind the current thinking underpinning NAMA funding. In conclusion, the systems perspective adopted in sustainability transition theories is thus recommended as a more rewarding approach towards understanding how attempts at transforming paradigms through support to climate policies and actions in developing countries are played out.
The concept of multiple (economic, ecological, social and political) crisis has arisen from recent tumultuous economic events. This paper uses a feminist perspective to present the concept as a crisis of regeneration of both nature and social reproduction. We intend to go beyond multiple crisis using the notion of a new social contract, to overcome this crisis in a transformative way towards sustainability. A feminist analysis of the concept of social contract is founded on the critique of domination and is based on Carole Pateman's, 1988 thesis that the modern social contract is characterized by a "separating inclusion" of women. It also refers to Val Plumwood's critique of the separated and autonomous self, which is part of all classical conceptions of social contract. We argue that overcoming the multiple crisis requires overcoming structures of separation and re-envisioning concepts of the individual, by discussing the German example of a "Social Contract for Sustainability" (2011). If the notion of social contract is to become a catalyst for transformation processes leading to sustainability, it cannot be overarching but has to be developed as a multitude of small new social and local contracts.
Wasting food, wasting resources : potential environmental savings through food waste reductions
(2018)
Food is needed to maintain our physical integrity and therefore meets a most basic human need. The food sector got in the focus of environmental policy, because of its environmental implications and its inefficiency in terms of the amount of food lost along the value chain. The European Commission (EC) flagged the food waste issue a few years ago and adopted since then a series of policies that partially address the problem. Among these, the Resource Efficiency Roadmap set the aspirational goal of reducing the resource inputs in the food chain by 20% and halving the disposal of edible food waste by 2020. Focusing on consumer food waste, we tested what a reduction following the Roadmap's food waste target would imply for four environmental categories in EU28 (European Union 28 Member States): greenhouse gas emissions, land use, blue water consumption, and material use. Compared to the 2011 levels, reaching the target would lead to 2% to 7% reductions of the total footprint depending on the environmental category. This equals a 10% to 11% decrease in inputs in the food value chain (i.e., around half of the resource use reductions targeted). The vast majority of potential gains are related to households, rather than the food-related services. Most likely, the 2020 target will not be met, since there is insufficient action both at Member State and European levels. The Sustainable Development Goals provide a new milestone for reducing edible food waste, but Europe needs to rise up to the challenge of decreasing its per capita food waste generation by 50% by 2030.
Measure or management? : Resource use indicators for policymakers based on microdata by households
(2018)
Sustainable Development Goal 12 (SDG 12) requires sustainable production and consumption. One indicator named in the SDG for resource use is the (national) material footprint. A method and disaggregated data basis that differentiates the material footprint for production and consumption according to, e.g., sectors, fields of consumption as well as socioeconomic criteria does not yet exist. We present two methods and its results for analyzing resource the consumption of private households based on microdata: (1) an indicator based on representative expenditure data in Germany and (2) an indicator based on survey data from a web tool. By these means, we aim to contribute to monitoring the Sustainable Development Goals, especially the sustainable management and efficient use of natural resources. Indicators based on microdata ensure that indicators can be disaggregated by socioeconomic characteristics like age, sex, income, or geographic location. Results from both methods show a right-skewed distribution of the Material Footprint in Germany and, for instance, an increasing Material Footprint with increasing household income. The methods enable researchers and policymakers to evaluate trends in resource use and to differentiate between lifestyles and along socioeconomic characteristics. This, in turn, would allow us to tailor sustainable consumption policies to household needs and restrictions.
The calm before the storm : an assessment of the 23rd Climate Change Conference (COP 23) in Bonn
(2018)
From 6 to 17 November, the 23rd Conference of the Parties (COP23) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was held in Bonn under the presidency of Fiji. Researchers of the Wuppertal Institute, who attended the conference, have now published an in-depth analysis of the key results of the conference.
The report starts by discussing developments regarding the implementation of the Paris Agreement, in particular the negotiations on the detailed "rulebook" for implementing the Agreement. Other key issues addressed at the conference were the support for countries of the Global South in dealing with the effects of climate change (adaptation and climate finance) and preparation of the first global review of climate action that will take place in December this year. In addition, the report discusses recent developments in the wider world that have an impact on the UNFCCC, in particular the rise of pioneer alliances at the intergovernmental and civil society level.
Although some progress was achieved regarding the rulebook for implementation of the Paris Agreement, no real breakthrough was made. Therefore, quite some diplomatic work and political leadership will be needed this year to make the adoption of the rulebook at COP24 in Katowice (Poland) possible. This will require quite some tailwind from civil society and the media.
Energy sufficiency has recently gained increasing attention as a way to limit and reduce total energy consumption of households and overall. This paper presents both the partly new methods and the results of a comprehensive analysis of a micro- and meso-level energy sufficiency policy package to make electricity use in the home more sufficient and reduce at least the growth in per-capita dwelling size. The objective is to find out how policy can support households and their members, as individuals or as caregivers, but also manufacturers and local authorities in practicing energy sufficiency. This analysis needed an adapted and partly new set of methods we developed. Energy sufficiency does not only face barriers like energy efficiency, but also potential restrictions for certain household members or characteristics, and sometimes, preconditions have to be met to make more energy-sufficient routines and practices possible. All of this was analysed in detail to derive recommendations for which policy instruments need to be combined to an effective policy package for energy sufficiency. Energy efficiency and energy sufficiency should not be seen as opposed to each other but work in the same direction - saving energy. Therefore, some energy sufficiency policy instruments may be the same as for energy efficiency, such as energy pricing policies. Some may simply adapt technology-specific energy efficiency policy instruments. Examples include progressive appliance efficiency standards, standards based on absolute consumption, or providing energy advice. However, sufficiency may also require new policy approaches. They may range from promotion of completely different services for food and clothes cleaning, to instruments for limiting average dwelling floor area per person, or to a cap-and-trade system for the total electricity sales of a supplier to its customers, instead of an energy efficiency obligation.
Ahead of the Conference of Parties (COP) 24 where countries will first take stock of climate action post Paris, this paper assesses India's progress on its nationally determined contribution (NDC) targets and future energy plans. We find that, although India is well on track to meet its NDC pledges, these targets were extremely modest given previous context. Furthermore, there is considerable uncertainty around India's energy policy post 2030 and if current plans for energy futures materialise, the Paris Agreement's 2 degrees goal will be almost certainly unachievable. India's role in international climate politics has shifted from obstructionism to leadership particularly following the announcement of withdrawal by the United States from the Paris Agreement, but analysis reveals that India's "hard" actions on the domestic front are inconsistent with its "soft" actions in the international climate policy arena. Going forward, India is likely to face increasing calls for stronger mitigation action and we suggest that this gap can be bridged by strengthening the links between India's foreign policy ambitions, international climate commitments, and domestic energy realities.
Digital platforms may yield a host of advantages in putting circular economy into effect. This paper analyses the related chances and discusses requirements of digital platforms for the realization of a circular economy. It specifically points to potential solutions offered by digital platforms for existing barriers. From there it identifies issues that need specific attendance to create economically and ecologically functional platforms. Three economically relevant perspectives are discussed for this: a management perspective, a legislative perspective and a social/systems perspective.
India's present development trajectory is at a crucial juncture with a requirement to meet the demands of a population of over 1.2 billion while ensuring environmental sustainability. The resulting economic growth over the past two decades has over-exploited finite natural resources and led to tremendous environmental degradation. Therefore, decoupling economic growth from resource consumption is crucial in the transformation towards a green economy. Building construction is one of the most resource-intensive sectors, as well as creating a high impact on the environment. This study analyzes existing mechanisms in India's building construction sector that attempt to decouple economic growth from resource use and environmental impacts. The key contributors for decoupling are analyzed. Recommendations for regulations, market incentives, transparency, data monitoring and capacity-building are provided for an array of policy initiatives targeted at political and financial decision-makers at the national, state and local levels for different buildings.
The potential of mixed-mode office buildings with varying design and control parameters is examined by using an uncertainty analysis in the three climate zones of India. The analysis is in terms of cooling energy consumption, thermal comfort conditions, and natural ventilation hours. Furthermore, influential parameters are identified using sensitivity analysis. In this study, opening the windows enables natural ventilation. Night-time ventilation through the windows is not enabled because these are mostly closed at night. A maximum natural ventilation of 10% of the total building occupancy hours are observed in warm and humid, and hot and dry climates; however, they are slightly higher in the composite climate. A further increase in the number of natural ventilation hours leads to an increase in the occupancy hours outside the Indian Model for Adaptive Comfort model for mixed-mode buildings with at least 90% of occupants are satisfied. There are no occupancy hours outside of 80% of occupants are satisfied. The choice of thermal comfort band is crucial for determining the potential of mixed-mode buildings. The cooling setpoint temperature, building size, window solar heat gain coefficient, and surface properties of exterior surfaces are identified as the more influential parameters than the thermophysical properties of building envelope constructions. Although the building envelope which is in compliance with the Energy Efficient Building Code of India increases energy efficiency during air-conditioning periods, whether it reduces natural ventilation hours, because of overheating during such period remains to be determined.
A policy mix for resource efficiency in the EU : key instruments, challenges and research needs
(2019)
Against the background of an often wasteful use of natural resources, the European Union has made resource efficiency a top policy priority. Policy formulation is, however, at a very early stage in many Member States, with often vague notions of what resource efficiency means, characterised by fragmented instruments and overlapping competencies. This paper develops a conceptual framework for defining, assessing and developing resource efficiency policy mixes. It argues that a mix of policies and instruments is best suited to overcoming the complex challenges of the 21st Century. Such a mix addresses multiple resource domains at a strategic, high level and contains interacting instruments targeting multiple actors, levels of governance and sectors and life-cycle stages of resource use. This paper looks at criteria for effective resource efficiency policy instruments, presents both an indicative policy mix across 9 policy domains and case studies (on environmental harmful subsidies, supply chain efficiency in food systems and product-service systems) and identifies key challenges to overcome trade-offs in instrument design, maximise synergies, reduce conflicts, promote coherence, coordinate activities and move from theory to practice. Research needs are discussed regarding who shall devise, implement, and coordinate such a policy mix, considering negotiating power, timing and complexity.
With the introduction of the Roadmap to a Resource Efficient Europe (2011) and the more recent commitment of The Action Plan towards the Circular Economy (2015), the European Commission (EC) has expressed its fundamental interest to substantially improve the resource efficiency of the European economy and enable the transition towards the Circular Economy (CE). This policy push has meanwhile been complemented by some quite ambitious national programmes for RE and CE and institutional advances but it is not yet bound to targets or mandatory reporting.
Against this background, the objective of this paper is to give a comprehensive overview of the current policy frameworks at EU and a selection of MSs and provide insights into the elements shaping policy processes. The analytical framework relies on three essential interconnected components: the policy framework, the economic incentive system and economic side policies which are relevant in the context of RE and CE and actor constellations. The paper does this looking at the interface between EU-MSs. The analysis is based on different empirical surveys in which the policy development is observed and discussed (EEA 2011, 2016a, 2016b, EIO 2013, 2014, 2016) and a comprehensive review of legislative and policy frameworks at the EU and selected MSs, undertaken as part of the project POLFREE (Policy option for a Resource-Efficient Economy) (Domenech et al., 2014, Bahn-Walkowiak et al., 2014). The analysis reveals that policy frameworks for RE/CE are complex and fragmented as competing goals and visions reduce effectiveness of measures. The paper makes recommendations as to how EU and MS policies could improve RE in a coordinated way, but recognizes that achieving such coordination will be challenging in the current political context.
Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement stand as milestone diplomatic achievements. However, immense discrepancies between political commitments and governmental action remain. Combined national climate commitments fall far short of the Paris Agreement's 1.5/2°C targets. Similar political ambition gaps persist across various areas of sustainable development. Many therefore argue that actions by nonstate actors, such as businesses and investors, cities and regions, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), are crucial. These voices have resonated across the United Nations (UN) system, leading to growing recognition, promotion, and mobilization of such actions in ever greater numbers. This article investigates optimistic arguments about nonstate engagement, namely: (a) "the more the better"; (b) "everybody wins"; (c) "everyone does their part"; and (d) "more brings more." However, these optimistic arguments may not be matched in practice due to governance risks. The current emphasis on quantifiable impacts may lead to the under-appreciation of variegated social, economic, and environmental impacts. Claims that everybody stands to benefit may easily be contradicted by outcomes that are not in line with priorities and needs in developing countries. Despite the seeming depoliticization of the role of nonstate actors in implementation, actions may still lead to politically contentious outcomes. Finally, nonstate climate and sustainability actions may not be self-reinforcing but may heavily depend on supporting mechanisms. The article concludes with governance risk-reduction strategies that can be combined to maximize nonstate potential in sustainable and climate-resilient transformations.
Addressing food waste prevention is one target of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and a major task for the UN Environmental Programme and the European Commission. It is promising in terms of its environmental saving potential. However, it also leads to consumers being able to save money, which they then are likely to spend, thus again causing a negative environmental impact. This dimension of the so-called indirect rebound effect, which prevents the desired ecological benefits from being achieved, is investigated in this paper. By using a single-region environmentally extended input-output model from a production perspective, the indirect rebound effects from food waste prevention in Germany are analysed. Any political action needs to consider not only a differentiation in income class, but also alternative concepts such as the principles of sufficiency in order to achieve all ecological benefits and specifically the third target of SDG 12.
Creating statistics for China's building energy consumption using an adapted energy balance sheet
(2019)
China's regular energy statistics does not include the building sector, and data on building energy demand is included in other types of energy consumption in the Energy Balance Sheet (EBS). Therefore data on building energy demand is not collected based on statistics, but rather calculated or estimated by various approaches in China. This study aims at developing and testing China's building energy statistics by applying an adapted EBS. The advantage of the adapted EBS is that statistical data is from the regular statistical system and no additional statistical efforts are needed. The research result shows that the adapted EBS can be included in China regular energy statistical system and can be standardized in a transparent way. Testing of the adapted EBS shows that China's building energy demand has shown an annual increase of 7.6% since 2001, and a lower contribution to the total energy demand as compared to the developed world. There is also a close link to lifestyle and living standard while industrial energy demand is mainly driven by economy and decoupling of building energy demand with increasing of building floor area, this is due to a considerable improvement of building energy efficiency. The adapted EBS creates a method for China conducting statistics of building energy consumption at the sector level in a uniform way and serves as the basis for any sound building energy efficiency policy decisions.
Green Information Systems in general, and footprint calculators in particular, are promising feedback tools to assist people in adopting sustainable behaviour. Therefore, a Material Footprint model for use in an online footprint calculator was developed by identifying the most important predictors of the Material Footprint of the calculator's users. By means of statistical learning, the analysis revealed that 22 of the 95 predictors identified accounted for 74% of the variance in Material Footprints. Ten predictors out of the 95, mainly from the mobility domain, were capable of showing a prediction accuracy of 61%. The authors conclude that 22 predictors from the areas of mobility, housing and nutrition, as well as sociodemographic information, accurately predict a person's Material Footprint. The short and concise Material Footprint model may help developers and researchers to enhance their information systems with additional items while ensuring the data quality of such applications.
Footprint calculators are efficient tools to monitor the environmental impact of private consumption. We present the results of an analysis of data entered into an online Material Footprint calculator undertaken to identify the socioeconomic drivers of the Material Footprint in different areas of consumption, from housing to holidaymaking. We developed regression models to reveal (1) the impact of socioeconomic characteristics on Material Footprints of private households and (2) correlations between the components of Material Footprints for different arrays of consumption. Our results show that an increasing Material Footprint in one array of consumption comes with an increasing Material Footprint in all other arrays, with the exception of housing and holidaymaking. The socioeconomic characteristics of users have a significant impact on their Material Footprints. However, this impact varies by the array of consumption. Households only exhibit generally bigger Material Footprints as a result of higher incomes and larger dwellings. We conclude that indicators which strive to monitor resource efficiency should survey disaggregated data in order to classify the resource use to different population groups and arrays of consumption.
Reflecting trends in the academic landscape of sustainable energy using probabilistic topic modeling
(2019)
Background: Facing planetary boundaries, we need a sustainable energy system providing its life support function for society in the long-term within environmental limits. Since science plays an important role in decision-making, this study examines the thematic landscape of research on sustainable energy, which may contribute to a sustainability transformation. Understanding the structure of the research field allows for critical reflections and the identification of blind spots for advancing this field.
Methods: The study applies a text mining approach on 26533 Scopus-indexed abstracts published from 1990 to 2016 based on a latent Dirichlet allocation topic model. Models with up 1100 topics were created. Based on coherence scores and manual inspection, the model with 300 topics was selected. These statistical methods served for highlighting timely topic trends, differing thematic fields, and emerging communities in the topic network. The study critically reflects the quantitative results from a sustainability perspective.
Results: The study identifies a focus on establishing and optimizing the energy infrastructure towards 100% renewable energies through key modern technology areas: materials science, (biological) process engineering, and (digital) monitoring and control systems. Energy storage, photonic materials, nanomaterials, or biofuels belong to the topics with the strongest trends. The study identifies decreasing trends for general aspects regarding sustainable development and related economic, environmental, and political issues.
Conclusions: The discourse is latently adopting a technology-oriented paradigm focusing on renewable energy generation and is moving away from the multi-faceted concept of sustainability. The field has the potential to contribute to climate change mitigation by optimizing renewable energy systems. However, given the complexity of these systems, horizontal integration of the various valuable vertical research strands is required. Furthermore, the holistic ecological perspective considering the global scale that has originally motivated research on sustainable energy might be re-strengthened, e.g., by an integrated energy and materials perspective. Beyond considering the physical dimensions of energy systems, existing links from the currently technology-oriented discourse to the social sciences might be strengthened. For establishing sustainable energy systems, future research will not only have to target the technical energy infrastructure but put a stronger focus on issues perceivable from a holistic second-order perspective.
The current global momentum for carbon pricing has lately produced innovative hybrids: carbon taxes allowing the use of offsets from emission sources not targeted by the carbon tax for compliance with the tax load. This study aims at filling the knowledge gap in existing literature by exploring the potential impacts of domestic offset components in carbon taxes on mitigation of national emissions, including the country examples Colombia, Mexico and South Africa.
The findings indicate that the use of offsets in carbon taxes may significantly influence mitigation of national emissions both positively and negatively. On the one hand, this model may result in real emission reductions from offset projects and positive spillover effects of efforts to reduce emissions from emission sources covered by the carbon tax to other emission sources. Furthermore, the offsetting component can be used as a bargaining chip in political negotiations facilitating the introduction of mitigation policies and measures and/or strengthening their ambition level. On the other hand, it also entails serious risks: Offsetting could compromise the environmental integrity of the carbon tax through low-quality offsets. Furthermore, offsets reduce incentives to curb emissions in the emission sources covered by the carbon tax, potentially leading to carbon lock-in effects. Moreover, an offsetting component could provoke opposition to further climate policies and measures for emission sources generating offsets, as replacing the offsetting component with mandatory emission reduction policies would eliminate revenues from offset credits. General opposition of stakeholder groups to the introduction of offsets may even hinder the introduction of carbon pricing instruments and offsetting altogether.
The study identifies options that could be employed to increase potential positive effects of introducing an offset component to a carbon tax and mitigate related risks, pointing to the country examples included, where appropriate.
Theoretical advances suggest that international governance in general and the Paris Agreement in particular provide a strong signal guiding sociotechnical systems toward decarbonization. We assess this signal and its effects empirically, by examining the struggle of competing narratives as present in the communications of leading US fossil fuel industry associations and companies. The results are then discussed in the context of the national and international climate and energy policy debates in a study period from late 2014 until the announcement of withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in June 2017. We find that the Paris Agreement has institutionalized a narrative paradigm that is surprisingly resilient. While the election of Donald Trump and his climate and energy policy led to a narrative shift in the coal industry, the oil and gas industry remained conspicuously silent in its immediate response and maintained its narrative strategies despite its alignment with the Paris Agreement.
Many countries are increasingly investing in renewable energy technologies to meet growing energy demands and increase the security of their energy supply. This development is also evident in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, where renewable energy targets and policies have evolved rapidly in recent years. There is a steady increase in both the number of planned and implemented solar photovoltaic (PV) but also of solar thermal projects in form of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants. Many of these installations are designed as large utility-scale systems. Despite the fact that these types of large-scale projects can have significant effects on local communities and their livelihoods, the existing research into the social impacts of such large-scale renewable energy infrastructures at local level is limited. However, assessing and managing these impacts is becoming increasingly important to reduce risks to both the affected communities and to the project and businesses activities. In order to provide more robust evidence on the local effects, this research study reviews the social impacts of large-scale renewable energy infrastructure in the MENA region based on a case study of the NOORo I CSP plant in Ouarzazate, Morocco. Data collected during two empirical field studies, in combination with expert interviews and secondary data analysis, provides detailed evidence on the type and significance of livelihood impacts of the NOORo I CSP plant. The analysis results in a consolidated list of 30 impacts and their significance levels for different stakeholder groups including farmers, young people, women, community representatives and owners of small and medium enterprises. The results show that, overall, the infrastructure development was received positively. The review also indicates that factors identified as having effects on the sustainability of local livelihoods are mainly related to information management and benefit distribution, rather than physical or material aspects.
The implementation of energy efficiency improvement actions not only yields energy and greenhouse gas emission savings, but also leads to other multiple impacts such as air pollution reductions and subsequent health and eco-system effects, resource impacts, economic effects on labour markets, aggregate demand and energy prices or on energy security. While many of these impacts have been studied in previous research, this work quantifies them in one consistent framework based on a common underlying bottom-up funded energy efficiency scenario across the EU. These scenario data are used to quantify multiple impacts by energy efficiency improvement action and for all EU28 member states using existing approaches and partially further developing methodologies. Where possible, impacts are integrated into cost-benefit analyses. We find that with a conservative estimate, multiple impacts sum up to a size of at least 50% of energy cost savings, with substantial impacts coming from e.g., air pollution, energy poverty reduction and economic impacts.
Addressing the prevailing mode of high-carbon lifestyles is crucial for the transition towards a net-zero carbon society. Existing studies fail to fully investigate the underlining factors of unsustainable lifestyles beyond individual determinants nor consider the gaps between current footprints and reduction targets. This study examines latent lifestyle factors related to carbon footprints and analyzes gaps between decarbonization targets and current lifestyles of major consumer segments through exploratory factor analysis and cluster analysis. As a case study on Japanese households, it estimates carbon footprints of over 47,000 households using expenditure survey microdata, and identifies high-carbon lifestyle factors and consumer segments by multivariate regression analysis, factor analysis, and cluster analysis. Income, savings, family composition, house size and type, ownership of durables and automobiles, and work style were confirmed as determinants of high-footprint Japanese households, with eight lifestyles factors, including long-distance leisure, materialistic consumption, and meat-rich diets, identified as the main contributory factors. The study revealed a five-fold difference between lowest and highest footprint segments, with all segments overshooting the 2030 and 2050 decarbonization targets. The findings imply the urgent need for policies tailored to diverse consumer segments and to address the underlying causes of high-carbon lifestyles especially of high-carbon segments.
The need for sustainable energy management at the municipal level is growing, in order to meet EU climate goals. Multiple initiatives have been launched to support municipalities in energy planning and strategy development process. Despite available support, research shows mixed results about implementation of plans and strategies. This research paper analyses what targets municipalities set, how they monitor implementation of their sustainable energy action plans (SEAPs) and searches for the most important factors that have enabled or hindered the implementation of local SEAPs at Latvia. The article shows that, in some cases, there is evidence that SEAP development is a project-based activity, supported by external experts. From municipal personnel point of view, it is a project that ends with approved SEAP, but not a part of their future daily routine. Eventually implementation of the plan is difficult, because municipalities lack experience in daily management of energy data, distribution of responsibilities and implementation of procedures. Municipalities also tend to exclude important stakeholders in their SEAPs, like, private sector, household sector and transport sector, which lead to lower targets and lower achievements in GHG reduction.
Digitalization is a transformation process which has already affected many parts of industry and society and is expected to yet increase its transformative speed and impact. In the energy sector, many digital applications have already been implemented. However, a more drastic change is expected during the next decades. Good understanding of which digital applications are possible and what are the associated benefits as well as risks from the different perspectives of the impacted stakeholders is of high importance. On the one hand, it is the basis for a broad societal and political discussion about general targets and guidelines of digitalization. On the other hand, it is an important piece of information for companies in order to develop and sustainably implement digital applications. This article provides a structured overview of potential digital applications in the German energy (electricity) sector, including the associated benefits and the impacted stakeholders on the basis of a literature review. Furthermore, as an outlook, a methodology to holistically analyze digital applications is suggested. The intended purpose of the suggested methodology is to provide a complexity-reduced fact base as input for societal and political discussions and for the development of new digital products, services, or business models. While the methodology is outlined in this article, in a follow-up article the application of the methodology will be presented and the use of the approach reflected.
Climate researchers agree that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions significantly contribute to climate change, and that radical measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to the impacts of no longer avoidable climate change are needed. The German Federal Government with its Climate Protection Plan 2050 reinforced its target to reduce Germany's greenhouse gas emissions by 80 to 95 percent compared with 1990. The achievement of these targets requires nothing less than a fundamental transformation of spatial planning.
In the paper a methodology to scientifically assess the likely impacts of possible combinations of policies or strategies to achieve the energy transition, i.e. to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions of urban mobility and transport is proposed and demonstrated, using the Ruhr Area, the largest conurbation in Germany, as an example.
The results of the policies examined so far can be summarised as follows: Push measures as high energy prices, speed limits or reduction of the number of lanes of main roads are more effective in reducing greenhouse gas emissions than pull measures as the promotion of cycling, walking, electric cars or public transport. Between policies or policy packages there can be positive or negative synergies, i.e. the impacts of measures can reinforce or weaken each other. The results show that even with ambitious policies the greenhouse gas emission targets of the national and state governments will not be achieved and that more radical policies are needed.
The "fuzzy front end" of innovation is argued to be crucial for the success and sustainability impact of a final product. Indeed, it is a promising area of focus in efforts to achieve the United Nations' 2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which provide a globally accepted framework for sustainability. However, the usability of the 17 goals and the large number of sub-goals represent barriers to innovation practitioners. Moreover, this early innovation stage proves to be a challenge for corporate practitioners and innovators, largely due to the concept's intangible, qualitative nature and the lack of data. To help overcome these barriers, this article proposes a four-stage approach for structuring the innovation process using an online tool called the "SDG-Check", which help assess an innovator's sustainability orientation in the early phases of product and service development. It is a semi-quantitative tool to gather and combine assessments by experts involved in innovation processes with implications for the United Nations' SDGs. Furthermore, this article presents our first experiences in applying the SDG-Check based on three living lab innovation cases. The results indicate that the tools can support and inspire a dialogue with internal and external stakeholders with regards to sustainability considerations in the early design stages of product and service development.
The Paris Agreement introduces long-term strategies as an instrument to inform progressively more ambitious emission reduction objectives, while holding development goals paramount in the context of national circumstances. In the lead up to the twenty-first Conference of the Parties, the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project developed mid-century low-emission pathways for 16 countries, based on an innovative pathway design framework. In this Perspective, we describe this framework and show how it can support the development of sectorally and technologically detailed, policy-relevant and country-driven strategies consistent with the Paris Agreement climate goal. We also discuss how this framework can be used to engage stakeholder input and buy-in; design implementation policy packages; reveal necessary technological, financial and institutional enabling conditions; and support global stocktaking and increasing of ambition.
Last year's conference of the global climate change regime took place from 2 until 15 December 2018 in Katowice, Poland. The conference had two main objectives: operationalising the Paris Agreement by adopting detailed rules for its implementation, and starting the process of strengthening Parties' climate protection contributions. This article covers the negotiations on these two sets of issues and also includes a discussion of other recent climate activities by Parties and non-Party actors. Success of the negotiations in Katowice was far from assured, but in the end COP24 concluded with the adoption of the "Katowice Climate Package" setting out detailed guidelines on how to implement its various elements. However, the conference fell short on the first objective, none of the major emitting countries was ready to step up its climate ambition. The most important aspect of the Katowice outcome is therefore that it has brought the wrangling about implementation procedures to a close, making way for the true task at hand: the strengthening of national and international activities to protect the climate and the implementation of the existing pledges. Arguably, a key factor that has been slowing down climate policy is the power of entrenched interests. The article therefore concludes with a reflection on how such barriers to climate action may be overcome and what role future COPs may play in this regard.
Each year, approximately one-third of the food produced for human consumption is lost or wasted worldwide. The waste of resources used for this food has significant environmental impacts in terms of land and water use as well as greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, one of the targets of the UN sustainable development goals is to halve per capita global food waste at the retail and consumer levels and reduce food losses along production and supply chains by 2030. However, sufficient knowledge about the suitability of instruments for food waste prevention is still lacking. The purpose of this paper is therefore threefold: first, it outlines the generation and causes of food losses and waste. Second, it discusses good practices from different countries, such as laws to reduce food waste, voluntary agreements, awareness campaigns and results from behavioural economics. Finally, based on these findings, this paper identifies barriers to as well as requirements for the implementation of effective and efficient instruments.
Research on sustainability transitions has expanded rapidly in the last ten years, diversified in terms of topics and geographical applications, and deepened with respect to theories and methods. This article provides an extensive review and an updated research agenda for the field, classified into nine main themes: understanding transitions; power, agency and politics; governing transitions; civil society, culture and social movements; businesses and industries; transitions in practice and everyday life; geography of transitions; ethical aspects; and methodologies. The review shows that the scope of sustainability transitions research has broadened and connections to established disciplines have grown stronger. At the same time, we see that the grand challenges related to sustainability remain unsolved, calling for continued efforts and an acceleration of ongoing transitions. Transition studies can play a key role in this regard by creating new perspectives, approaches and understanding and helping to move society in the direction of sustainability.
Nowadays, the main impetus to apply additive manufacturing (AM) of metals is the high geometric flexibility of the processes and its ability to produce pilot or small batch series. In contrast, resource and energy intensities are often not considered as constraints, even though the turnout of additive manufacturing is high, at least compared to chip removing processes.
The study at hand analyses the material characteristics and environmental impacts of a hose nozzle as an example of a commercial product of simple geometry. The production routes turning (conventional manufacturing) and laser beam melting (additive manufacturing) are compared to each other in terms of natural resource use, climate change potential and primary energy demand. It is found, that the product shows a lower demand for natural resources when produced via AM, but higher carbon emissions and energy demand when using a steel, that is mainly (80%) produced from high-alloyed steel scrap. However, different case studies during the sensitivity analyses showed that a number of factors highly influence the results: the steel source as well as the source of electricity play a major role in determining the environmental performance of the production routes. The authors also found that other production processes (here cold forging of tubes) might be an eco-friendly alternative to both routes, if feasible from an economic point of view.
In regard to the material characteristics, experimental testing revealed that the material advantages of AM produced hose nozzles (in particular higher yield strength) are reduced after a solution heat treatment is applied to the as-produced material, in order to increase corrosion resistance. However, products that do not require this production step might benefit from the higher yield strength, as a lower wall thickness could be realised.
In recent years, most countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), including Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia, have rolled out national policies with the goal of decarbonising their economies. Energy policy goals in these countries have been characterised by expanding the deployment of renewable energy technologies in the electricity mix in the medium term (i.e., until 2030). This tacitly signals a transformation of socio-technical systems by 2030 and beyond. Nevertheless, how these policy objectives actually translate into future scenarios that can also take into account a long-term perspective up to 2050 and correspond to local preferences remains largely understudied. This paper aims to fill this gap by identifying the most widely preferred long-term electricity scenarios for Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia. During a series of two-day workshops (one in each country), the research team, along with local stakeholders, adopted a participatory approach to develop multiple 2050 electricity scenarios, which enabled electricity pathways to be modelled using Renewable Energy Pathway Simulation System GIS (renpassG!S). We subsequently used the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) within a Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) to capture local preferences. The empirical findings show that local stakeholders in all three countries preferred electricity scenarios mainly or even exclusively based on renewables. The findings demonstrate a clear preference for renewable energies and show that useful insights can be generated using participatory approaches to energy planning.
This paper offers a comparative analysis of small wind electrification programmes targeted at remote sheep farming households in two of the windiest regions of the world, Argentine Patagonia and the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas. Despite comparable environmental conditions and local livelihoods, their impact was vastly different. Insights from socio-technical systems and strategic niche management approaches offered a deeper understanding of the local context and development dynamics, facilitating the identification of the critical success factors that contributed to these two distinct outcomes and finally highlighting those that can inform the design of future such initiatives. The research is based upon a series of semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders, observational field visits and review of archival sources. The critical factors identified by this case study research include strong and consistent institutional support, investment in robust equipment creation of effective feedback loops from the field and hybridisation. Additionally, a user centred approach that assesses whether small wind is really the right option for each individual household and if so, matches an appropriate energy system to their unique and evolving needs. Finally, empowering users to take on as much responsibility for maintenance as possible by integrating maintenance practices with local culture and ensuring the support of an effective decentralised maintenance network.
Responsible consumption and production is one of the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations. To achieve this goal the currently high extraction rates of natural resources, that our economy is based on, needs a transformation of the consumption and production system considering technological as well as social change. One of the promising transition approaches is seen in collaborative consumption with its many facets of socio-cultural innovations and fast growing number of participants and businesses. With a decreasing production of goods, due to a utilisation of underutilised assets, these offers might support an absolute reduction of the global resource use. However, a positive environmental effect depends on the setting and the social practices of such sharing offers and is not sustainable or resource efficient generally. Also, resource efficient practices with a low diffusion potential that stick in a niche offer no leverage to achieve sustainable consumption patterns. Thus, this paper describes a mixed method approach to analyse the resource efficiency and diffusion potential of 20 sharing offers in the area of mobility, housing & travel and everyday objects in Germany. Results show that the overall positive environmental connotation of sharing offers cannot be confirmed. We identified five clusters of offers that are all treated to be differently when it comes to deploying the positive potential and avoid unnecessary societal effort to achieve the mentioned Sustainable Development Goal.
A significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions will be necessary in the coming decades to enable the global community to avoid the most dangerous consequences of man-made global warming. This fact is reflected in Germany's 7th Federal Energy Research Program (EFP), which was adopted in 2018. Direct Air Capture (DAC) technologies used to absorb carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere comprise one way to achieve these reductions in greenhouse gases. DAC has been identified as a technology (group) for which there are still major technology gaps. The intention of this article is to explore the potential role of DAC for the EFP by using a multi-dimensional analysis showing the technology's possible contributions to the German government's energy and climate policy goals and to German industry's global reputation in the field of modern energy technologies, as well as the possibilities of integrating DAC into the existing energy system. The results show that the future role of DAC is affected by a variety of uncertainty factors. The technology is still in an early stage of development and has yet to prove its large-scale technical feasibility, as well as its economic viability. The results of the multi-dimensional evaluation, as well as the need for further technological development, integrated assessment, and systems-level analyses, justify the inclusion of DAC technology in national energy research programs like the EFP.
Global climate
(2019)
The twenty-third Conference of the Parties (COP-23) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was held in Bonn on 6-17 November 2017, under the presidency of Fiji. COP-23 focused, in particular, on developing rules to implement the 2015 Paris Agreement and on raising ambition for climate protection. Since this was the first "Oceanic" COP, special attention was given to supporting the countries of the Global South in their efforts to reduce emissions, adapt to climate change, and deal with the unavoidable impacts of climate change. This article summarizes the main developments and results of COP-23.
Additionality revisited : guarding the integrity of market mechanisms under the Paris agreement
(2019)
The Paris Agreement requires mitigation contributions from all Parties. Therefore, the determination of additionality of activities under the market mechanisms of its Article 6 will need to be revisited. This paper provides recommendations on how to operationalize additionality under Article 6. We first review generic definitions of additionality and current approaches for testing of additionality before discussing under which conditions additionality testing of specific activities or policies is still necessary under the new context of the Paris Agreement, that is, in order to prevent increases of global emissions. We argue that the possibility of "hot air" generation under nationally-determined contributions (NDCs) requires an independent check of the NDC's ambition. If the NDC of the transferring country does contain "hot air", or if the transferred emission reductions are not covered by the NDC, a dedicated additionality test should be required. While additionality tests of projects and programmes could continue to be done through investment analysis, for policy instruments new approaches are required. They should be differentiated according to type of policy instrument. For regulation, we suggest calculating the resulting pay-back period for technology users. If the regulation generates investments exceeding a payback period threshold, it could be deemed additional. Similarly, carbon pricing policies that generate a carbon price exceeding a threshold could qualify; for trading schemes an absence of over-allocation needs to be shown. The threshold should be differentiated according to country categories and rise over time.
The Global Stocktake (GST) takes a central role within the architecture of the Paris Agreement, with many hoping that it will become a catalyst for increased mitigation ambition. This paper outlines four governance functions for an ideal GST: pacemaker, ensurer of accountability, driver of ambition and provider of guidance and signal. The GST can set the pace of progress by stimulating and synchronizing policy processes across governance levels. It can ensure accountability of Parties through transparency and public information sharing. Ambition can be enhanced through benchmarks for action and transformative learning. By reiterating and refining the long term visions, it can echo and amplify the guidance and signal provided by the Paris Agreement. The paper further outlines preconditions for the effective performance of these functions. Process-related conditions include: a public appraisal of inputs; a facilitative format that can develop specific recommendations; high-level endorsement to amplify the message and effectively inform national climate policy agendas; and an appropriate schedule, especially with respect to the transparency framework. Underlying information provided by Parties complemented with other (scientific) sources needs to enable benchmark setting for collective climate action, to allow for transparent assessments of the state of emissions and progress of a low-carbon transformation. The information also needs to be politically relevant and concrete enough to trigger enhancement of ambition. We conclude that meeting these conditions would enable an ideal GST and maximize its catalytic effect.
Sulphate aerosols are dominated by SO2 emissions from coal-burning for the Indian electricity sector and they are thought to have a short term but significant, negative impact on South Asian Summer Monsoon rainfall. This reduction in precipitation in turn can lead to reduced economic outputs, primarily through smaller agricultural yields. By bringing together estimates of (a) the impact of sulphate aerosols on precipitation and (b) the observed relationship between monsoon rainfall and GDP, we present a methodology to estimate the possible financial cost of this effect on the Indian economy and on its agricultural sector. Our preliminary estimate is that the derived benefits could be large enough that around 50% of India's SO2 emissions could be economically mitigated at no cost or net benefit, although it should be noted that the large uncertainties in the underlying relationships mean that the overall uncertainty is also large. Comparison of the 1952-1981 and 1982-2011 periods indicates that the Indian economy may now be more resilient to variability of the monsoon rainfall. As such, a case could be made for action to reduce SO2 emissions, particularly in the crucial monsoon period. This would have a significant, positive effect on a crucial and large sector in India's economy and the effects would be visible almost instantly. The recent growth in renewable energy sources in India and the consequent, reduced increase in coal burning means that further financial costs have already been avoided. This impact should be further investigated so that it can be included in cost-benefit analyses of different fuel types in the region. The significant uncertainties associated with these calculations are discussed.
Biofuels and electrification are potential ways to reduce CO2 emissions from the transport sector, although not without limitations or associated problems. This paper describes a life-cycle analysis (LCA) of the Brazilian urban passenger transport system. The LCA considers various scenarios of a wholesale conversion of car and urban bus fleets to 100% electric or biofuel (bioethanol and biodiesel) use by 2050 compared to a business as usual (BAU) scenario. The LCA includes the following phases of vehicles and their life: fuel use and manufacturing (including electricity generation and land-use emissions), vehicle and battery manufacturing and end of life. The results are presented in terms of CO2, nitrous oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM) emissions, electricity consumption and the land required to grow the requisite biofuel feedstocks. Biofuels result in similar or higher CO2 and air pollutant emissions than BAU, while electrification resulted in significantly lower emissions of all types. Possible limitations found include the amount of electricity consumed by electric vehicles in the electrification scenarios.
To contribute to a better understanding of consumer food leftovers and to facilitate their reduction in out-of-home settings, our study analyzes the effects of two common intervention strategies for reducing leftovers in a holistic behavioral model. Based on a quasi-experimental baseline-intervention design, we analyzed how the display of information posters and the reduction of portion sizes take an effect on personal, social and environmental determinants in a structural equation model. Applying data from online surveys and observations among 880 guests (503 baseline, 377 intervention) during two weeks in a university canteen, the suggested model allows to assign effects from the two interventions on plate leftovers to specific changes in behavioral determinants. Portion size reductions for target dishes are found to relate to lower levels of plate waste based on conscious perception, represented in smaller portion size ratings. Effects from seeing information posters are found to base on changed personal attitudes, subjective norms and perceived behavioral control. However, depending on how an individual reacts to the information (by only making an effort to finish all food or by making an effort and additionally choosing a different dish in the canteen) there are opposite effects on these determinants and consequently also on plate leftovers. Overall, the differentiated results on intervention effects strongly support the benefits of more holistic and in-depth analyses of interventions to reduce plate leftovers and therefore to contribute to more sustainable food consumption in out-of-home settings.
Urban energy systems have been commonly considered to be socio-technical systems within the boundaries of an urban area. However, recent literature challenges this notion in that it urges researchers to look at the wider interactions and influences of urban energy systems wherein the socio-technical sphere is expanded to political, environmental and economic realms as well. In addition to the inter-sectoral linkages, the diverse agents and multilevel governance trends of energy sustainability in the dynamic environment of cities make the urban energy landscape a complex one. There is a strong case then for establishing a new conceptualisation of urban energy systems that builds upon these contemporary understandings of such systems. We argue that the complex systems approach can be suitable for this. In this paper, we propose a pilot framework for understanding urban energy systems using complex systems theory as an integrating plane. We review the multiple streams of urban energy literature to identify the contemporary discussions and construct this framework that can serve as a common ontological understanding for the different scholarships studying urban energy systems. We conclude the paper by highlighting the ways in which the framework can serve some of the relevant communities.
In this paper three approaches on transitions pathways are combined to study the role of agricultural nature conservation in the Dutch land use domain for achieving internationally agreed climate and biodiversity targets. The three perspectives used are the Multilevel Perspective (MLP), Initiative Based Learning (IBL) and Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM). The analysis provides insights in how the combination of different research approaches can lead to more comprehensive policy advice on how agricultural nature conservation could help to achieve internationally agreed sustainability goals related to climate change and biodiversity. IAM shows under which conditions agricultural nature conservation could be consistent with European and global long-term goals regarding food security, biodiversity and climate. MLP provides insight into the extent in which agricultural nature conservation has affected or changed the existing nature and agricultural regimes. IBL, finally, reveals the challenges of encouraging agricultural nature conservation with policy measures. Our analysis shows that a combined perspective provides a deeper understanding of the underlying processes, reasons and motives of agricultural nature conservation, leading to more comprehensive policy recommendations.
The Port of Rotterdam is an important industrial cluster, comprising mainly oil refining, chemical production and power generation. In 2016, the port's industry accounted for 19% of the Netherlands' total CO2 emissions. The Port of Rotterdam Authority is aware that the cluster is heavily exposed to future decarbonisation policies, as most of its activities focus on trading, handling, converting and using fossil fuels. Based on a study for the Port Authority using a mixture of qualitative and quantitative methods, our article explores three pathways whereby the port's industry can maintain its strong position while significantly reducing its CO2 emissions and related risks by 2050. The pathways differ in terms of the EU's assumed climate change mitigation ambitions and the key technological choices made by the cluster's companies. The focus of the paper is on identifying key risks associated with each scenario and ways in which these could be mitigated.
The German Energiewende is a deliberate transformation of an established industrial economy towards a nearly CO2-free energy system accompanied by a phase out of nuclear energy. Its governance requires knowledge on how to steer the transition from the existing status quo to the target situation (transformation knowledge). The energy system is, however, a complex socio-technical system whose dynamics are influenced by behavioural and institutional aspects, which are badly represented by the dominant techno-economic scenario studies. In this paper, we therefore investigate and identify characteristics of model studies that make agent-based modelling supportive for the generation of transformation knowledge for the Energiewende. This is done by reflecting on the experiences gained from four different applications of agent-based models. In particular, we analyse whether the studies have improved our understanding of policies' impacts on the energy system, whether the knowledge derived is useful for practitioners, how valid understanding derived by the studies is, and whether the insights can be used beyond the initial case-studies. We conclude that agent-based modelling has a high potential to generate transformation knowledge, but that the design of projects in which the models are developed and used is of major importance to reap this potential. Well-informed and goal-oriented stakeholder involvement and a strong collaboration between data collection and model development are crucial.
Decarbonizing transportation in emerging economies will be one of the key challenges in global climate change mitigation efforts. In this paper, pathways are developed towards achieving a 1.5° degree scenario for land-transport for four emerging economies (Brazil, India, Kenya and Vietnam). The aim is to highlight the key opportunities and challenges for low-carbon transport in countries with rapidly growing mobility demand. The main focus of this paper is to reconcile actual and required emission reduction targets and develop plausible pathways to achieve these targets. The paper also identifies potential strategies and measures for these countries to follow these pathways. The analysis considers the contributions of "avoid" (cutting travel growth), "shift" (to lower CO2 modes) and "improve" (vehicle and fuel CO2 characteristics) interventions to decarbonisation scenarios. These scenarios aim to inform renewed Nationally Determined Contributions and shed light on the feasibility of deep decarbonisation pathways that would be in line with the Paris Agreement. Results from this study show that achieving 1.5DS would require dramatic changes in travel patterns, technology and fuels, and major intensification of current policy approaches. Decarbonization solutions will need to include greater use and investment of efficient modes, major shifts toward near-zero carbon fuels such as clean electricity, systems integration, modal shift and urban planning solutions. Although the socio-economic situations and national transport systems differ between the selected countries, some fairly similar strategies appear likely to be core to the mitigation effort, such as rapid growth in light- and heavy-duty vehicle electrification and investments in public transit systems.
In order to achieve the UNFCCC Paris Agreement goals, climate policies worldwide require considerable ratcheting-up. Policy sequencing provides a framework for analysing policy process dynamics that facilitate ratcheting-up. We apply a sequencing perspective to two key EU climate and energy policies, the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and the Renewable Energy Directive (RED), to comparatively test the empirical relevance of sequencing for single policies - in addition to sequencing across policies, which has been the focus of sequencing theory so far - and to uncover specific mechanisms. Our results confirm that sequencing, based on triggering positive and controlling negative feedback, is relevant both within and across policies. Policy choices that may facilitate ratcheting-up include tools to control costs, the possibility to centralise and harmonise in a multi-level governance context, options for compensation of reluctant actors, and the encouragement of learning processes.
Non-residential buildings in the European Union consume more than one third of the building sector's total. Many non-residential buildings are owned by municipalities. This paper reports about an energy saving competition that was carried out in 91 municipal buildings in eight EU member states in 2019. For each public building an energy team was formed. The energy teams' activities encompassed motivating changes in the energy use behaviour of employees and small investments. Two challenges added an element of gamification to the energy saving competition. To assess the success of the energy saving competition, an energy performance baseline was calculated using energy consumption data of each public building from previous years. Energy consumption in the competition year was monitored on a monthly base. After the competition the top energy savers from each country were determined by the percentage-based reduction of energy consumption compared to the baseline. On average, the buildings had an electricity and heat consumption in 2019 that was about 8 % and 7 %, respectively, lower than the baseline. As an additional data source for the evaluation, a survey among energy team members was conducted at the beginning and after the energy competition. Support from superiors, employee interest and motivation and behaviour change as assessed by energy team members show a positive, if weak or moderate, correlation with changes in electricity consumption, but not with changes in heat consumption.
Driving forces of changing environmental pressures from consumption in the European food system
(2020)
The paper provides an integrated assessment of environmental and socio-economic effects arising from final consumption of food products by European households. Direct and indirect effects accumulated along the global supply chain are assessed by applying environmentally extended input-output analysis (EE-IOA). EXIOBASE 3.4 database is used as a source of detailed information on environmental pressures and world input-output transactions of intermediate and final goods and services. An original methodology to produce detailed allocation matrices to link IO data with household expenditure data is presented and applied. The results show a relative decoupling between environmental pressures and consumption over time and shows that European food consumption generates relatively less environmental pressures outside Europe (due to imports) than average European consumption. A methodological framework is defined to analyze the main driving forces by means of a structural decomposition analysis (SDA). The results of the SDA highlight that while technological developments and changes in the mix of consumed food products result in reductions in environmental pressures, this is offset by growth in consumption. The results highlight the importance of directing specific research and policy efforts towards food consumption to support the transition to a more sustainable food system in line with the objectives of the EU Farm to Fork Strategy.
At the heart of transition research lies the question of how to "scale up" sustainable alternatives from a protected niche to the creation of mainstream practices. While upscaling processes are often seen as an essential element that contributes to societal transformation, upscaling itself remains a fuzzy concept. We argue that some fundamental dilemmas of upscaling can be identified, for example, the different understanding of the concept by researchers and practitioners. The dilemmas should be addressed in a more reflexive way by those from the worlds of science and practice who are involved in collaborative research settings.
Industrial demand response can play an important part in balancing the intermittent production from a growing share of renewable energies in electricity markets. This paper analyses the role of aggregators - intermediaries between participants and power markets - in facilitating industrial demand response. Based on the results from semi-structured interviews with German demand response aggregators, as well as a wider stakeholder online survey, we examine the role of aggregators in overcoming barriers to industrial demand response. We find that a central role for aggregators is to raise awareness for the potentials of demand response, as well as to support implementation by engaging key actors in industrial companies. Moreover, we develop a taxonomy that helps analyse how the different functional roles of aggregators create economic value. We find that there is considerable heterogeneity in the kind of services that aggregators offer, many of which do create significant economic value. However, some of the functional roles that aggregators currently fill may become obsolete once market barriers to demand response are reduced or knowledge on demand response becomes more diffused.
Last year's conference of the global climate change regime took place from 2 until 15 December 2019 in Madrid, Spain. Despite marking a new record for overtime in the history of the UNFCCC, the conference did not only fail to meet the increasing public demand for swift and strong climate action, it also failed on its formal mandate to finalise the Paris rulebook. A record number of issues were left unresolved and shelved for the next session. COP25 thereby highlighted how much work still lies ahead both domestically and internationally if 2020 is to see a step-up in climate action that is consistent with the long-term goal of the Paris Agreement.
Biomass-fueled combined heat and power systems (CHPs) can potentially offer environmental benefits compared to conventional separate production technologies. This study presents the first environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) of a novel high-efficiency bio-based power (HBP) technology, which combines biomass gasification with a 199 kW solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) to produce heat and electricity. The aim is to identify the main sources of environmental impacts and to assess the potential environmental performance compared to benchmark technologies. The use of various biomass fuels and alternative allocation methods were scrutinized. The LCA results reveal that most of the environmental impacts of the energy supplied with the HBP technology are caused by the production of the biomass fuel. This contribution is higher for pelletized than for chipped biomass. Overall, HBP technology shows better environmental performance than heat from natural gas and electricity from the German/European grid. When comparing the HBP technology with the biomass-fueled ORC technology, the former offers significant benefits in terms of particulate matter (about 22 times lower), photochemical ozone formation (11 times lower), acidification (8 times lower) and terrestrial eutrophication (about 26 times lower). The environmental performance was not affected by the allocation parameter (exergy or economic) used. However, the tested substitution approaches showed to be inadequate to model multiple environmental impacts of CHP plants under the investigated context and goal.
Every diet has an impact on an individual’s health status, the environment, as well as on social concerns. A growing number of meals are consumed in the out-of-home catering sector, in which a systematic sustainability assessment is not part of common practice. In order to close this gap, an instrument was developed as part of the NAHGAST project. After more than one year of using the NAHGAST online tool, it needs to be assessed what positive environmental influences can be realized by using the tool. For this reason, this article deals with the question of whether an online tool can enable stakeholders from the out-of-home consumption sector to revise their meals with regard to aspects of a sustainable diet. In addition, it will be answered how precise recipe revisions of the most popular lunchtime meals influence the material footprint as well as the carbon footprint. In conclusion, an online tool can illustrate individual sustainability paths for stakeholders in the out-of-home consumption sector and enables an independent recipe revision for already existing meals. The results show that even slight changes in recipes could lead to savings of up to a third in carbon footprint as well as in material footprint. In relation to the out-of-home consumption sector, this results in the potential for substantial multiplication effects that will pave the way for the dissemination of sustainable nutrition.
We conducted a random allocation experiment at fashion week in Berlin in 2017, testing how face-to-face (f2f) communication affects sales of a fashion start-up focusing on second-hand. The experiment revealed that 11% of guests of an f2f event afterwards turned paying customers with an average basket size 11.8% higher than the overall sales event average. We add insights to research on entrepreneurial practice as well as on offline operations in the context of circular consumption in fashion, exposing the leveraging effect of f2f communication for customer acquisition and revenue of start-ups in the field of sustainable fashion.
Participatory modeling - the involvement of stakeholders in the modeling process - can support various objectives, such as stimulating learning processes or promoting mutual understanding of stakeholders. Participatory modeling approaches could therefore be useful for the governance of transitions, but a systematic account of potential application areas of participatory modeling methods in transition governance is still lacking. This article addresses this gap by providing a review of participatory modeling methods and linking them to phases and objectives of transition governance. We reviewed participatory modeling studies in transition research and related fields of social-ecological modeling, integrated assessment and environmental management. We find that participatory modeling methods are mostly used for participatory visioning and goal setting as well as for interactive strategy development. The review shows the potential for extending the application of participatory modeling methods to additional phases of transition governance and for the exchange of experiences between research fields.
Businesses like Airbnb have shown that a successful circular economy (CE) business can operate exclusively online. Although online communication and web appearance attributes have been subject to academic research given accelerated digitization, there is still a lack of knowledge about online attributes and their role in facilitating CE. We close the portrayed knowledge gap by conducting a discrete-choice experiment with best to worst scaling and focusing on the effect of CE experience on the perception of a CE website by ranking nine online attributes, grouped in three subsets. We therefore contribute by identifying online attributes that are perceived as favorable for CE businesses and detect how participation in CE activities affects the perception of these attributes. We find that third-party associated online attributes (e.g., user reviews or third-party guarantees) rank significantly higher throughout CE consumption patterns of the sample, being always amongst the top three attributes. This novel finding on online preferences opens a new direction for further research, as well as allows practitioners to optimize online operations accordingly. Furthermore, we find that users without prior touchpoints with CE have a higher need for information about the business model as compared to CE active users who are more interested in community related attributes.
Effective actions to mitigate climate change are urgently needed, especially in the context of cities, which are major sources of global CO2 emissions. Establishing and managing knowledge systems that integrate local knowledge can contribute to establishing more effective responses to climate change as well as transformative change towards sustainability. However, it is still unclear how new forms of urban governance should acquire, store, create, or disseminate knowledge for fostering sustainability transitions effectively. In this study, we present a multilevel knowledge system approach based on design principles informed especially by the knowledge management literature. These address (i) working environments across multiple levels, (ii) knowledge forms and types, and (iii) knowledge processes. We apply this approach to municipal climate action in the German energy transition. In particular, we focus on the operational work of municipal climate action managers of regional centers of Lower Saxony, one of the largest of the 16 federal states, and investigate their involvement in knowledge processes. Based on semi-structured interviews in 14 of the 17 regional centers, we show that structural pre-conditions for successful knowledge management and organizational learning are present. However, we also show that there is a need for improvement regarding (i) the multilevel coordination for accelerating routine operation, (ii) the persistence of local operational knowledge, and (iii) the exploitation of local innovations. Relying on these results, we offer general recommendations for municipal climate action and suggest that policies should (i) rely on local knowledge for effective decision-making, (ii) foster multilevel exchanges of explicit and tacit knowledge for implementation, and (iii) enable open-ended learning processes that leverage local innovations for creating usable transformational knowledge.
Many technical solutions have been developed to enhance the energy efficiency in buildings. However, the actual effectiveness and sustainability of these solutions often do not correspond to expectations because of the missing perspective of design, user's real needs, and unconsidered negative side effects of their use (rebounds). With the aim to help address these challenges, this paper presents results of a longitudinal living lab study and proposes a user-centered building management system (UC-BMS) as a prototype for office buildings. Based on mixed methods, UC-BMS was co-developed, tested, and evaluated in Germany in up to six office buildings, 85 offices, and within two heating periods. The results demonstrate that such user-oriented approach can save up to 20% of energy while maintaining or even improving comfort and work productivity. The findings show three main areas of intervention and elements of UC-BMS: (1) How interactive design and feedback systems (e.g., air quality) can stimulate ventilation practices and energy efficiency in offices and (2) supporting heating system optimization e.g., by better understanding office behavior. (3) Finally, an office comfort survey was conducted to enable communication between facility management and office users and thus limiting complaints and adapting the heating system towards actual office user needs.
In order to ensure security of supply in a future energy system with a high share of volatile electricity generation, flexibility technologies are needed. Industrial demand-side management ranks as one of the most efficient flexibility options. This paper analyses the effect of the integration of industrial demand-side management through the flexibilisation of aluminium electrolysis and other flexibilities of the electricity system and adjacent sectors. The additional flexibility options include electricity storage, heat storage in district heating networks, controlled charging of electric vehicles, and buffer storage in hydrogen electrolysis. The utilisation of the flexibilities is modelled in different settings with an increasing share of renewable energies, applying a dispatch model. This paper compares which contributions the different flexibilities can make to emission reduction, avoidance of curtailment, and reduction of fuel and CO2 costs, and which circumstances contribute to a decrease or increase of overall emissions with additional flexibilities. The analysis stresses the rising importance of flexibilities in an energy system based on increasing shares of renewable electricity generation, and shows that flexibilities are generally suited to reduce carbon emissions. It is presented that the relative contribution towards the reduction of curtailment and costs of flexibilisation of aluminium electrolysis are high, whereby the absolute effect is small compared to the other options due to the limited number of available processes.
Electricity generation requires water. With the global demand for electricity expected to increase significantly in the coming decades, the water demand in the power sector is also expected to rise. However, due to the ongoing global energy transition, the future structure of the power supply - and hence future water demand for power generation - is subject to high levels of uncertainty, because the volume of water required for electricity generation varies significantly depending on both the generation technology and the cooling system. This study shows the implications of ambitious decarbonization strategies for the direct water demand for electricity generation. To this end, water demand scenarios for the electricity sector are developed based on selected global energy scenario studies to systematically analyze the impact up to 2040. The results show that different decarbonization strategies for the electricity sector can lead to a huge variation in water needs. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) does not necessarily lead to a reduction in water demand. These findings emphasize the need to take into account not only GHG emission reductions, but also such aspects as water requirements of future energy systems, both at the regional and global levels, in order to achieve a sustainable energy transition.
Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are commonly used by decision makers in order to derive climate policies. IAMs are currently based on climate-economics interactions, whereas the role of social system has been highlighted to be of prime importance on the implementation of climate policies. Beyond existing IAMs, we argue that it is therefore urgent to increase efforts in the integration of social processes within IAMs. For achieving such a challenge, we present some promising avenues of research based on the social branches of economics. We finally present the potential implications yielded by such social IAMs.
With regard to residential energy use in the European Union (EU), most studies consider potential adopters of the technology (e.g., private owners) as being the sole decision-makers in the technology selection. However, during an integrated decision-making process (e.g., a construction project) multiple stakeholders will interact, influencing each other's judgement, thereby making it difficult to discern who is affecting the final decision, and to what extent. The goal of this study is to outline the full network of stakeholders involved in the decision-making process, along with their degree of power and interaction in the technology choice. For this purpose, empirical evidence from a multi-country survey is examined using social network analysis (SNA). The information is compared across building typologies, project types and countries (i.e., Italy, Spain, Germany, Poland, the United Kingdom, France, Belgium and the Netherlands). The results demonstrate that, in EU residential buildings, potential adopters of the technology are not the only stakeholders involved in the technology selection. They are in all instances in communication with multiple stakeholders, some of whom also hold a high level of power in the decision (i.e., key persuaders). Furthermore, their level of power and communication varies substantially across building typologies, project types and countries.
Organic waste to energy (OWtE) technologies have been developed and implemented in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) countries. However, they are still far away to significantly contribute not only to treat the ever-increasing waste volumes in the region but also to supply the regional energy demand and meet national carbon emission goals. The technical complexity of these technologies aligned with lack of research, high investment costs and political deficiencies have not allowed for an appropriate implementation of OWtE in the region, where the applicability of large-scale plants remains to be demonstrated. This research presents the state-of-the art of OWtE technologies in the context of the LAC countries based on archival research method. In addition, it presents challenges and opportunities that the region is facing for an adequate implementation of these technologies. The main findings show that OWtE have the potential to improve waste and energy systems in the region by reducing environmental impacts along with a series of social and economic benefits, such as increasing access to a sustainable energy supply. Diverse researches indicate principally anaerobic digestion, fermentation (e.g. 2G bioethanol, etc.), microbial fuel cells, gasification and pyrolysis as efficient technologies to treat solid organic wastes and produce bioenergy.
Global climate
(2020)
The annual Climate Change Conference took place on 2-15 December in Katowice, Poland. It included the twenty-fourth Conference of the Parties (COP-24) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the fourteenth Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (MOP-14), the resumed first Meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (MOP-1), and their subsidiary bodies. The conference had two main objectives: operationalizing the Paris Agreement by adopting detailed rules for its implementation and starting the process of strengthening the parties' climate protection contributions.
On September 17, 2019, EU Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager allowed the electricity company Eon to take over and break up RWE subsidiary Innogy under lenientconditions. But there are numerous experts who have a different opinion and argue that the EU Commission approval is a "decision of enormous importance" that will "fundamentally change the entire sector". The result of this decision is that this mega-deal creates two monolithic giants in the German energy sector with unprecedented market power. If one compares the situation with the purchase of the electricity supplier Nuon by Vattenfall in 2009, questions arise. Back then, the competition authorities forced Vattenfall to divest parts of Nuon's business in individual cities, which resulted in the supplier "lekker energie". Following this example, the competition authorities should have consistently forced Eon to sell parts of the business, such as larger distribution companies.
A transaction of this magnitude should always be viewed critically in competition law. The legitimate question therefore arises as to why the German and European competition authorities (the Federal Cartel Office, the Federal Network Agency, the Monopolies Commission and the European Competition Commission) faced this deal with barely audible criticism and why they did not react with far-reaching prohibition requirements. "Competition doubts are certainly justified". Because if the two largest German energy groups completely eliminate each other's competition and completely divide up their business areas among themselves, this will have far-reaching consequences for the energy sector. Especially against the background that the energy transition in Germany has so far been characterised by decentralised structures and civic participation (especially in the case of electricity generation from renewable energies). In this paper, the authors will demonstrate what this Eon/RWE deal means for competition and the energy transition.
This theory note develops a theoretical approach which integrates the negative spillovers that international institutions often impose on each other into our thinking about their normative legitimacy. Our approach draws on the political philosophy of Rainer Forst which revolves around the right to justification. It suggests that regime complexes facilitate the breakup of institution-specific orders of justification by prompting invested actors to justify negative spillovers vis-a-vis each other. Thus, regime complexes enable more encompassing justifications of negative spillovers than stand-alone international institutions. Against this backdrop, we submit that the proliferation of regime complexes represents normative progress in global governance.
There is urgent need to change the way we make use of non-renewable resources, especially metals, to sustain their availability for vital technologies associated with achieving change towards sustainability, but also to minimize negative impacts and to achieve a fair distribution of the wealth and burdens associated with their production and use. Especially public actors (state governments and administrations) have recently formulated strategies as a means to guide action fostering these goals. Yet, these strategies are very different in their character, which makes it difficult to compare them and learn how to best design strategies for a given context to contribute to the necessary change. To approach this question, we analyzed 37 national mineral resource-related strategy documents worldwide concerning their contextual conditions, motivation, and objectives. Following the general inputs for transition strategies (current and target state, transition strategy), we identified four clusters of strategy documents that share similarities in their approaches and support the development of specific recommendations for future strategy design in terms of both content and process. Designing strategies with a clear structure that interlinks a systems-based description of the current state, a clear vision (oriented at sustainability principles) and a sufficiently differentiated but at the same time flexible transition pathway improves their potential to contribute to more sustainable metal production and use.
It has been widely recognized that there is an urgent need for more sustainable urban transport policy and planning. To understand ambitious policy approaches, "relatively successful" cities are regularly subject of analyses. This paper also focuses on relatively successful cities - by reviewing the application documents of the winner cities of the European Green Capital Award (EGCA). Award schemes not only aim to reward leading participants, but likewise aim to contribute to knowledge transfer and the dissemination of good practice examples to non-participants. So far award schemes and good practice approaches have received limited attention by research. This paper reviews and analyses the application forms of the EGCA winning cities to learn about ambitious policy approaches to sustainable and climate-friendly urban transport.
In the light of Germany's chosen path towards the energy transition, the regulatory framework has changed considerably. New players have succeeded in entering the market, and renewable energies have become increasingly competitive. Greater electrification of the transport and heating sectors will be needed in the future to achieve national climate targets. Against this background, Germany's big energy companies need to be sure that their sales will increase. However, they were unable to anticipate this development, and made strategic mistakes in the past. The development of sustainable business models in line with the energy transition failed to materialize. Now it is becoming increasingly clear that companies must create new business models to survive in the long term. These business models have to keep with the tradition, whilst meeting the needs of low-carbon power supplies. In this paper, we will examine the past and future challenges of the four energy companies and develop a proposal for evaluating sustainable business models. For this purpose, we use the multi-level perspective to categorize developments in the electricity market over the last 50 years, and then apply a multi-criteria analysis to derive five suitable business models from the results.
Mixed-method research to foster energy efficiency investments by small private landlords in Germany
(2020)
The decarbonisation of the building stock is an important element for the success of the German Energiewende (energy transition). Despite some progress having been made, the rate of energy renovation falls below the level required to meet political commitments. This gives rise to the question: what deters property owners from making energy efficiency investments and how can the policy framework foster such investments? To answer this question, the paper focuses on a widely neglected property owner group: small private landlords (SPL). Although they manage 37% of all residential rental properties in Germany, very little is known about their decision-making processes for energy efficiency investments. We applied a mixed-method design to identify factors that hindered and supported their investments. In an explorative study, we initially conducted 18 problem-centred interviews. Subsequently, we carried out a postal survey and analysed the questionnaires using a hierarchical linear regression model. The results show that energy renovation is a multi-dimensional decision-making process, which can only be adequately addressed by a comprehensive policy package. To develop such a package, the author recommends that the specific investment behaviour of SPL must be better targeted, their knowledge about energy efficiency investments must be improved through exchange and networking, a sense of responsibility for the neighbourhood must be fostered, and greater focus must be placed on improving local framework conditions
Every diet has an impact on an individual's health status, the environment as well as on social aspects. In particular, ecological and social concerns are usually only vaguely assessed in the daily routines of out-of-home catering and a systematic sustainability assessment of meals is usually not carried out. Since May 2018, the menu calculator presented in this paper has been supporting stakeholders in various catering establishments with their sustainability assessment. The tool was developed within the NAHGAST project (www.nahgast.de) in cooperation with five practice partners and tested and validated by a total of 120 recipes. This article provides an overview of selected recipes' sustainability assessments (meals with fish and meat as well as vegetarian and vegan meals) and highlights the effects on the ecological, health and social dimensions.
Nigeria is Africa's largest economy and home to approximately 10% of the un-electrified population of Sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, 77 million Nigerians or 40% of the population had no access to affordable, reliable and sustainable electricity. In practice, diesel- and petrol-fuelled back-up generators supply the vast majority of electricity in the country. In Nigeria's nationally-determined contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement, over 60% of the greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) reductions are foreseen in the power sector. The goal of this study is to identify and critically examine the pathways available to Nigeria to meet its 2030 electricity access, renewables and decarbonization goals in the power sector. Using published data and stakeholder interviews, we build three potential scenarios for electrification and growth in demand, generation and transmission capacity. The demand assumptions incorporate existing knowledge on pathways for electrification via grid extension, mini-grids and solar home systems (SHS). The supply assumptions are built upon an evaluation of the investment pipeline for generation and transmission capacity, and possible scale-up rates up to 2030. The results reveal that, in the most ambitious Green Transition scenario, Nigeria meets its electricity access goals, whereby those connected to the grid achieve a Tier 3 level of access, and those served by sustainable off-grid solutions (mini-grids and SHS) achieve Tier 2. Decarbonization pledges would be surpassed in all three scenarios but renewable energy goals would only be partly met. Fossil fuel-based back-up generation continues to play a substantial role in all scenarios. The implications and critical uncertainties of these findings are extensively discussed.
New options are needed to reduce the impact of motor vehicles on climate change and declining fossil fuel resources. Cars which are fueled by hydrogen could be a sustainable method of transportation if suitable technologies can be devised to produce hydrogen in an environmentally benign manner along with the provision of the necessary fueling infrastructure. This paper assesses size, space, and cost requirements of bioreactors as a decentralized option to supply hydrogen powered cars with biohydrogen produced from algae or cyanobacteria on a theoretical basis. Decentralized supply of biohydrogen could help to reduce the problems that hydrogen cars face regarding market penetration. A feasibility study for decentralized biohydrogen production is conducted, taking the quantity of hydrogen which is needed to fuel current hydrogen cars into account. While this technology is, in theory, feasible, sizes, and costs of such reactors are currently too high for widespread adoption. Thus, more R&D is needed to close the gap and to approach marketability.
The mass roll out of solar PV across the Global South has enabled electricity access for millions of people. In the right context, Small Wind Turbines (SWTs) can be complementary, offering the potential to generate at times of low solar resource (night, monsoon season, winter, etc.) and increasing the proportion of the total energy system that can be manufactured locally. However, many contextual factors critically affect the viability of the technology, such as the extreme variability in the wind resource itself and the local availability of technical support. Therefore, performing a detailed market analysis in each new context is much more important. The Wind Empowerment Market Assessment Methodology (WEMAM) is a multi-scalar, transdisciplinary methodology for identifying the niche contexts where small wind can make a valuable contribution to rural electrification. This paper aims to inform the development of WEMAM with a critical review of existing market assessment methodologies. By breaking down WEMAM into its component parts, reflecting upon its practical applications to date and drawing upon insights from the literature, opportunities where it could continue to evolve are highlighted. Key opportunities include shifting the focus towards development outcomes; creating community archetypes; localised studies in high potential regions; scenario modelling and MCDA ranking of proposed interventions; participatory market mapping; and applying socio-technical transitions theory to understand how the small wind niche can break through into the mainstream.
Given large potentials of the MENA region for renewable energy production, transitions towards renewables-based energy systems seem a promising way for meeting growing energy demand while contributing to greenhouse gas emissions reductions according to the Paris Agreement at the same time. Supporting and steering transitions to a low-carbon energy system require a clear understanding of socio-technical interdependencies in the energy system as well as of the principle dynamics of system innovations. For facilitating such understanding, a phase model for renewables-based energy transitions in MENA countries, which structures the transition process over time through the differentiation of a set of sub-sequent distinct phases, is developed in this article. The phase model builds on a phase model depicting the German energy transition, which was complemented by insights about transition governance and adapted to reflect characteristics of the MENA region. The resulting model includes four phases ("Take-off renewables", "System integration", "Power to fuel/gases”, "Towards 100% renewables”), each of which is characterized by a different cluster of innovations. These innovations enter the system via three stages of development which describe different levels of maturity and market penetration, and which require appropriate governance. The phase model has the potential to support strategy development and governance of energy transitions in MENA countries in two complementary ways: it provides an overview of techno-economic developments as orienting guidelines for decision-makers, and it adds some guidance as to which governance approaches are suitable for supporting those developments.
Energy service companies (ESCOs) play crucial role in building energy efficiency retrofit sector. However limited access to green financing has prevented ESCOs in their expansions in China. This paper, based on a survey of 469 samples and on-site visiting to and interviewing relevant 50 actors of ESCOs, financial institutions and local housing authorities, identifies main barriers of accessing to green financing at both systemic policy level and operational meso and micro level in China, and analyzes good practices at local level that overcome the barriers. The paper concludes that, although there are barriers existing at the policy level in China, substantial attentions and priorities should be given to take actions for overcoming the barriers existed at the operational meso and micro level. The paper suggests that the good practices of capacity building for ESCOs and local financial sector, intensifying participation of intermediate organizations or facilitators and diversifying financial sources and funding mechanisms and models that emerge from the local level should be disseminated in China.
This paper explores how the European Commission promotes the concept of Sustainable Urban Mobility Planning (SUMP) among European cities. Despite the strong uptake of the SUMP concept, mobility-related problems persist in European municipalities. Linking theoretical approaches to understand the diffusion of policies with empirical findings from working with cities in the SUMP context, this article explores channels of policy diffusion and investigates shortcomings related to the respective approaches. Studies on the diffusion, the transfer and the convergence of policies identify formal hierarchy, coercion, competition, learning and networking, and the diffusion of international norms as channels for policy transfer. The findings which are presented in this paper are twofold: First, the paper finds evidence that the Commission takes different roles and uses all mechanisms in parallel, albeit with different intensity. It concludes that the approaches to explain policy diffusion are not competing or mutually exclusive but are applied by the same actor to address different aspects of a policy field, or to reach out to different actors. Second, the article provides first evidence of factors that limit the mechanisms' abilities to directly influence urban mobility systems and mobility behaviour.