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From 7 to 18 November 2016, the twenty-second Conference of the Parties (COP22) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) took place in Marrakech. Due to the early entry into force of the Paris Agreement, Marrakech also hosted the first Conference of the Parties serving as Meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA1). Researchers from the Wuppertal Institute observed the conference and elaborated a detailed analysis of the results. The report starts by discussing developments regarding the implementation of the Paris Agreement, in particular the detailed "rulebook" and cooperative mechanisms. Next, the article discusses developments in the various avenues for raising climate ambition that have been put in place by the Paris conference: the 2018 facilitative dialogue, the engagement of non-state and sub-national actors, and the elaboration of mid-century climate strategies. In addition, the article discusses other Marrakech developments, in particular on issues of climate finance and adaptation, as well as recent developments in the wider world that have an impact on the UNFCCC, in particular developing alliances, developments in the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) and under the Montreal Protocol, and possible repercussions of the US presidential election.
On 8 November 2016, Donald Trump was elected to become the 45th President of the United States of America. In his campaign, he repeatedly expressed his intention to "cancel the Paris Agreement". How can the course set with the adoption of the Paris Agreement be continued independently of the developments in the US? Lukas Hermwille and Wolfgang Obergassel sketch possible consequences of the sea change of US climate policy for the international negotiation process and identify options for a "Trump-resilient" way forward.
US-Präsident Donald Trump verkündete am Nachmittag des 1. Juni 2017 im Rosengarten des Weißen Hauses, dass er das Pariser Klimaabkommen aus dem Jahr 2015 kündigen wolle. Was bedeutet dieser Schritt der USA für den globalen Klimaschutz? Dieser in brief zeigt, in welcher Weise die an Klimaschutz interessierten Staaten sich am besten organisieren, um das Pariser Klimaabkommen und die globale Klimapolitik erfolgreich weiterzuführen.
Dass alle Welt auf den US-Präsidenten und sein populistisches Nein zum Klimaabkommen von Paris schaut, wird den Erfordernissen der internationalen Klimapolitik nicht gerecht. Wir sollten jetzt eher so handeln, als ob es die USA gar nicht gäbe. Es ist jedenfalls höchste Zeit, innerhalb und außerhalb der internationalen Verträge neue Allianzen der Vernunft zu bilden.
Global climate
(2017)
On 12 December, the twenty-first Conference of Parties (COP-21) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted the Paris Agreement. This marked the conclusion of the long process of crafting a new international climate regime that began with the adoption of the Bali Roadmap in 2007, failed spectacularly in Copenhagen in 2009, and resumed with a new approach in Durban 2011. This article summarizes and analyzes the main contents of the Paris Agreement.
Letzte Zuflucht Glauben : der Beitrag der Spiritualität zur Erhaltung einer lebenswerten Welt
(2016)
Die ökologische und soziale Situation der Welt ist dramatisch. Politische Vereinbarungen oder Appelle konnten das Ruder bislang nicht herumreißen. Es wird immer deutlicher, dass sich die Außenwelt nur ändert, wenn sich auch in der Innenwelt der Menschen etwas tut. Gibt es spirituelle Ansätze in den verschiedenen Religionen, die den dringend nötigen sozial-ökologischen Wandel anstoßen können? Eine Spurensuche.
This paper analyses the results of the climate conference in Lima 2014 in the light of the coming climate summit in Paris by the end of this year (COP21). The authors from the Wuppertal Institute make recommendations for the improvement of the current cooperation in the context of the climate convention and they suggest to complement the existing UN regime with a club of forerunner countries in order to provide new breath for international climate policy.
The 2014 United Nations Climate Change Conference had been scheduled from 1 to 12 December in Lima/Peru. While in the run-up to the conference, China and the US in a surprise bilateral move had announced plans to cut greenhouse gas emissions that exceeded expectations, the conference was characterised once again by a deep division between key players from the former so-called "developed" and "developing" world. The negotiations thus took 32 hours longer than planned and ended on Sunday morning at 1.22 am. More importantly, the conference failed almost completely to resolve the tasks it was supposed to do in order to prepare the last round of negotiations before next year's conference in Paris 2015, which is supposed to deliver a comprehensive future climate agreement. A team of researchers from the Wuppertal Institute attended the conference and have compiled a first assessment of the results.
Das globale Klimaregime besteht den Realitätstest nicht. Doch anstatt den Kopf in den Sand zu stecken, sollten sich ambitionierte Staaten zu einer Klimaallianz zusammenschließen. Deren Mitglieder verstehen Klimaschutz als Chance, Wohlstand für alle zu schaffen, ohne dafür die Lebensgrundlagen zu zerstören.
Pit stop Poznan : an analysis of negotiations on the Bali action plan at the stopover to Copenhagen
(2009)
This paper analyzes the international climate negotiations that took place at the 14th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (COP) and the 4th Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP) held in Poznan, December 1–12, 2008. It works out the main issues at stake in the negotiations, contrasts divergences in interests amongst negotiating Parties, and summarizes the main results achieved in Poznan. Furthermore, it contextualizes the Poznan negotiations within the broader political and economic context, which has shaped climate policy making throughout 2008. The paper ends with an outlook on the tasks ahead in 2009, until the next COP/CMP in December 2009 in Copenhagen.
Aufgrund der asymmetrischen Struktur von Ursache und Wirkung (historische Hauptverursacher im Norden, besondere Verwundbarkeit des Südens) und aufgrund der schnell aufholenden Entwicklung der Schwellenländer sind vor allem die Nord-Süd-Beziehungen ein entscheidender Faktor bei der Bewältigung des Klimaproblems. Die "alten", traditionellen Industriestaaten werden die sich industrialisierenden Staaten des Südens nur dann zu eigenen Minderungsleistungen bewegen können, wenn sie - neben eigenen ambitionierten Reduktionen - auch in hohem Maße die Minderungsmaßnahmen im Süden finanzieren und die ärmeren Staaten bei der Anpassung unterstützen. Technologische Unterstützung und Finanzierung sind deshalb bei der internationalen Klimakonferenz (COP13) in Bali im Jahr 2007 zu einem Kernprojekt für die post-2012-Verhandlungen geworden.
Selbst konservative Schätzungen rechnen mit mehreren Dutzend Milliarden US-Dollar für die Minderung des Treibhausgasausstoßes und für Anpassungsmaßnahmen pro Jahr. Es ist daher nötig, bei der Finanzierung der Bekämpfung des Klimawandels nicht allein auf staatliche Mittel zu setzen, sondern auch private Mittel verstärkt mit einzubeziehen.
Diese Kurzstudie, die für das Bundesministerium für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung (BMZ) Anfang 2008 erstellt wurde, bietet eine Aufstellung und Bewertung der bestehenden Finanzierungsoptionen auf multilateraler (und zum Teil bilateraler) Ebene, sowie eine Darstellung von in der Planung befindlichen Instrumenten und innovativer Vorschläge für neue Formen der Zusammenarbeit von staatlichen und privaten Akteuren.
Finanzmärkte und Klimasystem haben eines gemeinsam: Sie sind Gemeingüter, wurden aber übernutzt wie die sprichwörtliche Gemeindewiese. Sie sollten allen zugutekommen, wurden jedoch nach dem Recht des Stärkeren zur Bereicherung weniger missbraucht. Damit sich das in den jetzigen Krisen nicht wiederholt, müssen die Industrieländer sicherstellen, dass die staatlichen Mittel, die sie für die Bankenliquidität mobilisieren, zugleich für klimapolitische Projekte eingesetzt werden. Bisher jedoch geschieht das Gegenteil: Unsere Wirtschaftsordnung lädt die (Finanz-) Marktakteure geradezu ein, die öffentlichen Güter auszubeuten.
The international climate negotiations have seen endless struggles between countries from South and North for almost 17 years, ever since the initiation of negotiations by the International Negotiation Committee (INC) for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The 13th meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC and the 3rd meeting of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (COP 13 / CMP 3) held in Bali in December 2007 (the Bali conference) could mark the beginning of a rapprochement. Parties agreed on initiating a new "Ad-hoc working group on Long-Term Cooperative Action under the Convention" (AWG-LCA) that aims to negotiate a post-2012 agreement with participation of all parties, including the US and developing countries, by the end of 2009 at COP 15 / CMP 5 in Copenhagen. This article examines the outcomes of the Bali conference, focussing on the negotiations regarding post-2012, flexible mechanisms, financial mechanisms, technology transfer and deforestation. Finally, the article concludes that the Bali Conference saw a significant shift in the battle lines, a rearrangement of positions and alliances that might well announce a decisive new era in global climate policy and provides a real chance to agree on an effective and workable post-2012 agreement in Copenhagen.
Dieses Papier gibt einen Überblick über die verschiedenen Formen der Technologiekooperation und prüft ihre Verwendbarkeit für die internationalen post-2012-Klimaverhandlungen. Es plädiert für einen umfassenden Ansatz unter Einbeziehung aller Elemente, also des gemeinsamen RD&D, der gemeinsamen Standardsetzung und der Finanzierung neuer Technologien. Die Vor- und Nachteile eines separaten Technologieprotokolls werden abgewogen - wobei die Nachteile überwiegen. Abschließend wird, unter Verweis auf die Verhandlungen in Bali, die Gründung einer Technologieallianz für Klimaschutz mit den Entwicklungs- und insbesondere den Schwellenländern empfohlen. Dies würde die post-2012-Verhandlungen entscheidend voranbringen, die diplomatische und technologische Zusammenarbeit mit den aufstrebenden Schwellenländern stärken und die Führungsrolle der Europäischen Union in der Klimapolitik - aber nicht nur dort - festigen.
What is the significance of the 2007 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bali? The formal outcomes, especially the "Bali Action Plan", are described and commented on, along with the challenges for negotiating a post-2012 agreement in Copenhagen during 2008 and 2009. The article concludes that the outcome of the Bali meeting is insufficient when compared to the nature of the challenge posed by climate change. However, it can nevertheless be considered a success in terms of "Realpolitik" in paving the way for the negotiations ahead, because some real changes have been discerned in the political landscape. The challenges for the road towards Copenhagen are manifold: the sheer volume and complexity of the issues and the far-reaching nature of decisions such as differentiation between non-Annex I countries pose significant challenges in themselves, while the dependency on the electoral process in the USA introduces a high element of risk into the whole process. The emergence of social justice as an issue turns climate policy into an endeavour to improve the world at large - thereby adding to the complexity. And, finally, the biggest challenge is the recognition that the climate problem requires a global solution, that Annex I and non-Annex I countries are mutually dependent on each other and that only cooperation regarding technology in combination with significant financial support will provide the chance to successfully tackle climate change.
Dieses Wuppertal Paper richtet sich an die interessierte Öffentlichkeit sowie an Produzenten und Dienstleister, die zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel beitragen können. Es gibt zunächst einen Überblick zur Problematik des Klimawandels und über die voraussichtlichen Schäden bzw. die Kosten der Anpassung. Die Autoren beschreiben sodann die Auswirkungen auf klimasensible Wirtschaftsbereiche und skizzieren schließlich die Chancen, die sich für die Unternehmen aus der zukünftig notwendigen Anpassung in vielen vom Klimawandel betroffenen Bereichen bieten. Fazit: Der Erfolg bei der Anpassung der bestehenden Produkte sowie bei der Gestaltung neuer Produkte an den Klimawandel wird auch maßgeblich über die künftigen Marktchancen von vielen Unternehmen in Deutschland und darüber hinaus entscheiden.
Hitzewellen, Überschwemmungen, Tropenstürme - der Klimawandel ist bereits in vollem Gange. Wir werden ihn nicht mehr gänzlich aufhalten können - doch wir sollten jetzt alles daran setzen, ihn zu bremsen und seine Folgen zu mildern. Doch wie könnte eine entsprechend umfassende Klimapolitik aussehen? In diesem Band diskutieren hochrangige Expertinnen und Experten neue Strategien, um den Klimawandel zu begrenzen. In kurzen, verständlich geschriebenen Beiträgen stellt dieses Buch die neuesten Erkenntnisse zu den Zielen einer Klimastrategie, zur Förderung neuer Technologien und zu neuen gesellschaftlichen Allianzen vor.
Szenarien einer zukünftigen Klimapolitik und Elemente eines effektiven Klimaregimes nach 2012
(2008)
The United Nations climate change conference in Nairobi came at the end of a year where public awareness of climate change had reached unprecedented heights. Nonetheless, the conference proceeded with its usual diplomatic ritual, apparently unaffected by time pressure. While it did see some progress on important issues for developing countries such as the Adaptation Fund, the Nairobi Work Programme on Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation to Climate Change, and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), on questions regarding the future of the regime it proved to be at best a confidence-building session that served to hear further views. More serious work on the future of the regime must therefore be expected of the next Conferences of the Parties.
This article by Wolfgang Sterk, Hermann E. Ott, Rie Watanabe and Bettina Wittneben summarises the results of the conference.
The "South-North Dialogue" Proposal, developed by researchers from developing and industrialised countries, outlined equitable approaches to mitigation. These approaches were based on the criteria of responsibility, capability and potential to mitigate, and include deep cuts in industrialised (Annex I) countries and differentiated mitigation commitments for developing countries. This paper quantitatively analyses the implications of the proposal for countries' emissions and costs. The analysis focuses on a "political willingness" scenario and four stabilisation scenarios. The analysis shows that stringent stabilisation targets imply that many developing countries would have to take on quantitative mitigation obligations by 2030, even when the Annex I countries take on ambitious mitigation commitments far beyond the Kyoto obligations. The "political willingness scenario" will probably not suffice to limit a warming of the Earth's atmosphere to below 2 °C.
National welfare is no longer an effective frame of reference for enlightened foreign policy. Policy consideration must encompass the common welfare of a world society. Environmental and resource crises are inextricably tied to security and justice. Sixty years after the founding of the United Nations there should be a new effort to establish a genuinely sustainable global order - a "San Francisco 2.0".
Der Verkehrssektor ist keineswegs der einzige, jedoch ein wesentlicher Verursacher der Klimaprobleme. Der Automobilverkehr als traditioneller Hauptbelaster im Verkehrsbereich zeigt zwar vergleichsweise positive Tendenzen, trotzdem ist auch hier noch erheblicher weiterer Handlungsbedarf gegeben. Das Wuppertal Institut hat hier in übersichtlicher und systematischer Form Stand und Perspektiven zusammengetragen. Nach einer ausführlichen Einbettung in den Klimadiskurs erfolgt die schrittweise Konzentration auf den PKW-Verkehr Deutschlands. Für diesen Bereich werden im Detail die denkbaren technischen Ansätze und die möglichen Umsetzungsmaßnahmen erörtert.
In 2005 two very important milestones of international climate policy were reached: The entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol and the installation of a European wide emissions trading system. In Germany, the publication of the fifth report of the inter-ministerial working group on climate policy was published with an evaluation of climate protection policies. In 2004 the Japanese climate protection policy was fully revised so that Japan will also bring forth important developments in this area. The traditional close cooperation in this area between Japan and Germany, must now result in more concrete projects to keep this dynamic going well into the future. There is much potential to achieve a lot.
Within the unique framework of the Germany in Japan Year 2005-2006, the German Ministry for the Environment, the Ministry for Innovation of Northrhine-Westfalia, together with the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (Japan) and the Wuppertal Institute (Germany) put together a two day event in Tokyo comprising an experts workshop and a one day conference.
At the conference, experts and practitioners of the German government, the states, the private sector and environmental organisations from Germany and Europe presented the decisive factors for success as well as the difficulties encountered namely in introducing an eco-tax and the Emissions Trading Scheme. Japanese experts and practitioners reported on Japanese approaches and reviewed the German/European experiences in light of the Japanese situation. At the expert workshop, researchers and decision makers discussed the experiences with policy dialogues and stakeholder involvement. They assessed the transferability of German/European experiences into the Japanese context and the broader inclusion of civil society into the governmental decision making process, that is so say, the opportunities in co-operating with politics, private sector and environmental organisations. This report documents the events and highlights the most outstanding conclusions and ideas for further cooperation in the future.
Additional binding reduction targets for greenhouse gases are necessary and they must also apply to important developing and transition countries. So far, these countries have been treated as a uniform group. In future, different rules will have to be used according to varying capabilities and different exposures to risk. A team of 14 researchers from
rich and poor countries puts forward proposals on how to proceed.
Global climate
(2005)
The first Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (MOP 1) took place from 28 November to 10 December 2005 in Montreal, in conjunction with the eleventh meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 11). This meeting signifies a successful start into a new era of international climate policy: The Kyoto Protocol, which in the past had been sometimes declared as being dead, has become operational.
The challenges of the meeting were framed along the "Three Is", Implementation, Improvement and Innovation. The first challenge (Implementation) entailed in particular the adoption of the Marrakesh Accords, the agreements reached at COP 7 in Marrakesh that set out the detailed rules for making the Kyoto Protocol operational. The second challenge (Improvement) referred to improving the work of the Framework Convention and the Kyoto Protocol in the near future. The third and most important challenge (Innovation) referred to the further evolution of the regime.
This article by Bettina Wittneben, Wolfgang Sterk, Hermann E. Ott und Bernd Brouns provides an account of the main developments in Montreal along the lines of the "Three Is". The paper concludes with an assessment and outlook on international climate policy.
Au royaume des aveugles ...
(2004)
Global climate
(2004)
Von Rio bis Den Haag
(2001)