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Schon seit dem 19. Jahrhundert gilt Wasserstoff als Basis einer nachhaltigen Energiezukunft. Auch wenn sich noch keine kommerzielle Nutzung etabliert hat, sind Wasserstofftechnologien in den vergangenen Jahren deutlich weiterentwickelt worden. In Zusammenarbeit mit dem Wuppertal Institut hat Shell untersucht, welchen Beitrag Wasserstoff zu einer nachhaltigen Energieversorgung - vor allem im Verkehr - künftig leisten kann.
In der vorliegenden Szenariostudie zeigen Forscher des Wuppertal Instituts, wie sich die Treibhausgasemissionen des Verkehrs in Deutschland von 166 Millionen Tonnen im Jahr 2016 bis zum Jahr 2035 auf null senken lassen - eine Zielmarke, die unter der Prämisse notwendig ist, dass die Erderwärmung auf möglichst 1,5 Grad Celsius begrenzt werden soll. Die Umsetzung dieser von der Staatengemeinschaft auf dem Klimaschutzgipfel in Paris 2015 vorgegebene Zielmarke erfordert eine rasche und konsequente Reduktion der Treibhausgasemissionen in allen Sektoren und auf nationaler wie globaler Ebene.
Accelerating the diffusion of domestic biogas is considered to be a promising option for reaching the goal of universal access to energy by 2030, particularly for the provision of cooking energy for rural populations in developing countries. The aim of this study is to develop a systematic account of the factors that influence the diffusion of domestic biogas technologies. To achieve this objective, a three step analysis approach is applied. In the first step, a conceptual model is built based on insights from scholars that have been studying the diffusion of energy innovations in rural contexts. In the next step, a qualitative content analysis of scientific literature is undertaken to test and refine the categories proposed by the conceptual model and to systematically organise the empirical evidence of the factors that influence the diffusion of domestic biogas in developing and emerging countries. The systemised evidence is used to identify the components and interactions between the household configurations and socio-economic context that determine both the adoption process at household level and the overall technology diffusion. Finally, in the last step, we reflect on the implications of the resultant systematic conceptualisation regarding the purpose and design of programmes promoting the dissemination of domestic biogas technologies.
Szenarien spielten und spielen eine zentrale Rolle für die Gestaltung der Energiewende. Sie beschreiben dabei auf konsistente Weise die mögliche zukünftige Entwicklung des Systems unter bestmöglicher Berücksichtigung des aktuellen Wissens bezüglich des Systems, d.h. der internen Abhängigkeiten und Wechselwirkungen der Systemkomponenten, aber auch die Abhängigkeit der Systementwicklung von äußeren Faktoren. Damit liefern Szenarien Leitplanken für zentrale technisch-strukturelle, energiepolitische, ökonomische und gesellschaftliche Weichenstellungen, die einen zielgerichteten Transformationsprozess flankieren müssen.
Decarbonisation of energy systems requires deep structural change. The purpose of this research was to analyse the rates of change taking place in the energy systems of the European Union (EU), in the light of the EU's climate change mitigation objectives. Trends on indicators such as energy intensity and carbon intensity of energy were compared with decadal benchmarks derived from deep decarbonisation scenarios for the electricity, residential, transport, and industry sectors. The methodology applied provides a useful and informative approach to tracking decarbonisation of energy systems. The results show that the EU has made significant progress in decarbonising its energy systems. On a number of indicators assessed the results show that a significant acceleration from historical levels is required in order to reach the rates of change seen on the future benchmarks for deep decarbonisation. The methodology applied provides an example of how the research community and international organisations could complement the transparency mechanism developed by the Paris Agreement on climate change, to improve understanding of progress toward low-carbon energy systems.
The contribution of the EU bioeconomy to sustainable development depends on how it is implemented. A high innovation potential is accompanied by considerable risks, in particular regarding the exacerbation of global land use conflicts. This article argues that a systemic monitoring system capable of connecting human-environment interactions and multiple scales of analysis in a dynamic way is needed to ensure that the EU bioeconomy transition meets overarching goals, like the Sustainable Development Goals. The monitoring should be centered around a dashboard of key indicators and targets covering environmental, economic, and social aspects of the bioeconomy. With a focus on the land dimension, this article examines the strengths and weakness of different economic, environmental and integrated models and methods for monitoring and forecasting the development of the EU bioeconomy. The state of research on key indicators and targets, as well as research needs to integrate these aspects into existing modeling approaches, are assessed. The article concludes with key criteria for a systemic bioeconomy monitoring system.
Energy-intensive processing industries (EPIs) produce iron and steel, aluminum, chemicals, cement, glass, and paper and pulp and are responsible for a large share of global greenhouse gas emissions. To meet 2050 emission targets, an accelerated transition towards deep decarbonization is required in these industries. Insights from sociotechnical and innovation systems perspectives are needed to better understand how to steer and facilitate this transition process. The transitions literature has so far, however, not featured EPIs. This paper positions EPIs within the transitions literature by characterizing their sociotechnical and innovation systems in terms of industry structure, innovation strategies, networks, markets and governmental interventions. We subsequently explore how these characteristics may influence the transition to deep decarbonization and identify gaps in the literature from which we formulate an agenda for further transitions research on EPIs and consider policy implications. Furthering this research field would not only enrich discussions on policy for achieving deep decarbonization, but would also develop transitions theory since the distinctive EPI characteristics are likely to yield new patterns in transition dynamics.
Various electricity generation technologies using different primary energy sources are available. Many published studies compare the costs of these technologies. However, most of those studies only consider plant-level costs and do not fully take into account additional costs that societies may face in using these technologies. This article reviews the literature on the costs of electricity generation technologies, aiming to determine which types of costs are relevant from a societal point of view when comparing generation technologies. The paper categorises the relevant types of costs, differentiating between plant-level, system and external costs as the main categories. It discusses the relevance of each type of cost for each generation technology. The findings suggest that several low-carbon electricity generation technologies exhibit lower social costs per kWh than the currently dominant technologies using fossil fuels. More generally, the findings emphasise the importance of taking not only plant-level costs, but also system and external costs, into account when comparing electricity generation technologies from a societal point of view. The article intends to inform both policymakers and energy system modellers, the latter who may strive to include all relevant types of costs in their models.
In October 2014, the European Council agreed on a target of improving overall energy efficiency by at least 27 per cent by 2030. According to the European Council's conclusions, this target should not be translated into nationally binding targets. Nevertheless individual Member States are free to set higher national objectives if desired. However, it is difficult to assess the degree of ambition of a national target because so far not much light has been shed upon the exact size of the untapped efficiency potentials.
This paper provides an in-depth analysis and comparison of existing studies on energy efficiency potentials in the European Union's (EU) Member States by 2030. It includes a structured overview of the results, information on the quality of the available data and suggestions for improvement.
The review shows that comprehensive studies on national energy efficiency potentials are rare and hardly comparable. The existing studies agree on the existence of significant potentials for energy efficiency. Their outcomes, however, vary significantly in terms of national levels. Assuming low policy intensity, energy savings between 10 and 28 per cent could be realised by 2030 compared to a baseline development, in the case of high policy intensity 7-44 per cent. Technical energy efficiency potentials in the different EU Member States are estimated at 14-52 per cent. On average, energy savings of 27 per cent by 2030 appear to be feasible with significant policy effort. We conclude that the deviation in Member States' energy efficiency potentials resulting from different studies represents an indication of the so far poor quality of underlying data. In order to allow for a concretisation of efficiency potential estimates, the comparability and detail of information sources should be improved.