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Optimization and simulation models are fit to work on a multitude of technical, economic, and techno-economic questions. However, they are by now not able to satisfactorily include societal aspects like acceptance, spatial implications and legal frameworks. In order to advance scope and explanatory power of simulation models, collaboration in interdisciplinary research teams is needed. Yet the exchange in such teams and its coordination can prove challenging. Furthermore, disciplinary approaches and methods for simulation and optimization might not be familiar to all participants.
To this end, a new conceptual model is introduced. The conceptual model employs few basic elements and concepts for describing and explaining arbitrary societal and technical relationships. Most notably, the conceptual model is general in its design, so contributions to the problem formulation and design components can be made by all team members regardless of their discipline. The procedure is based on common agent-based concepts without using their terminology. Consequently, an exchange among all team members becomes possible without them necessarily being proficient in agent-based modeling. A reduced presentation of workshop results exemplifies the use of novel elements for deriving an emergent agent-based simulation.
2015 verursachte jeder Deutsche 628 Kilogramm Siedlungsabfall. Damit liegt Deutschland für viele Abfallströme und insbesondere für Verpackungsabfälle deutlich über dem EU-Durchschnitt. Selbst wenn die Recyclingquoten hoch ausfallen, hat die Abfallvermeidung nicht nur eine ökologische Notwendigkeit. Auch aus ökonomischer Sicht muss sie zum Ausgangspunkt einer transformativen Innovationsagenda werden.
Actor and network analysis
(2017)
Africa and in particular African Least Developed Countries have to a large extent been neglected by the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). This article reviews the mechanism's performance in the region and highlights current developments. The analysis is based on a quantitative breakdown of data provided by the United Nations Environment Programme and Technical University of Denmark (UNEP/DTU) CDM Pipeline and was complemented by interviews with selected investors. The findings indicate that despite the various support measures for underrepresented regions, the overall share of African CDM activities continues to be low. The significant rise in the share of Programmes of Activities of recent years cannot make up for the continuing low numbers of African stand-alone projects. Further, the collapse of the compliance market has proved fatal in terms of timing: ongoing efforts to support the development of a genuine African carbon market were suffocated by the lack of demand for Certified Emission Reductions at a moment when capacity building had started to bear fruit. Consequently, instead of being a mitigation tool with significant scale, the future role of the CDM in Africa might be limited to the voluntary market, while at the same time serving as a tool to foster sustainable development, with mitigation benefits.
Analysing the impact of walking and cycling on urban road performance : a conceptual framework
(2017)
Energiesuffizienz ist neben Energieeffizienz ein zweiter Weg, den Energieverbrauch zu reduzieren. Während Energieeffizienz bei unverändertem Nutzen den Energieinput senkt, ist Energiesuffizienz eine Strategie mit dem Ziel, die Menge an technisch bereitgestellter Energie durch Veränderungen der Quantität oder Qualität des Nutzens aus Energie auf ein nachhaltiges Maß zu begrenzen oder zu reduzieren. Das kann durch Reduktion, Substitution oder Anpassung des Nutzens an den Bedarf im Alltag geschehen. Viele Haushalte praktizieren schon Energiesuffizienz, aber die Hemmnisse für eine stärkere Nutzung sind groß. Auch die Energiesuffizienz im Haushalt benötigt daher eine Flankierung durch die Politik. Im BMBF-Projekt "Energiesuffizienz" wurde daher erstmals eine integrierte Energiesuffizienzpolitik untersucht, die insbesondere den Stromverbrauch in den privaten Haushalten adressiert.
Assessing global resource use : a systems approach to resource efficiency and pollution reduction
(2017)
The growing demand for wood to meet EU renewable energy targets has increasingly come under scrutiny for potentially increasing EU import dependence and inducing land use change abroad, with associated impacts on the climate and biodiversity. This article builds on research accounting for levels of primary timber consumption - e.g., toward forest footprints - and developing reference values for benchmarking sustainability - e.g., toward land use targets - in order to improve systemic monitoring of timber and forest use. Specifically, it looks at future trends to assess how current EU policy may impact forests at an EU and global scale. Future demand scenarios are based on projections derived and adapted from the literature to depict developments under different scenario assumptions. Results reveal that by 2030, EU consumption levels on a per capita basis are estimated to be increasingly disproportionate compared to the rest of the world. EU consumption scenarios based on meeting around a 40% share of the EU renewable energy targets with timber would overshoot both the EU and global reference value range for sustainable supply capacities in 2030. Overall, findings support literature pointing to an increased risk of problem shifting relating to both how much and where timber needed for meeting renewable energy targets is sourced. It is argued that a sustainable level of timber consumption should be characterized by balance between supply (what the forest can provide on a sustainable basis) and demand (how much is used on a per capita basis, considering the concept of fair shares). To this end, future research should close data gaps, increase methodological robustness and address the socio-political legitimacy of the safe operating space concept towards targets in the future. A re-use of timber within the economy should be supported to increase supply options.
Wie viel Gestaltungsmacht haben das Pariser Klimaabkommen und die in der Agenda 2030 für nachhaltige Entwicklung formulierten Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) als internationaler Bezugsrahmen für die globale Energietransformation? In der vorliegeneden Studie analysiert Lukas Hermwille die beiden Agenden und stellt deren Komplementaritäten heraus.
Die Studie kommt zu dem Ergebnis, dass ein Fokus allein auf innovative Ansätze und den Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien nicht ausreicht. Nimmt man die Ambition des Zwei-Grad-Limits oder gar des 1,5-Grad-Ziels ernst, reicht es nicht aus, darauf zu warten, bis Kohle, Öl und Gas von alleine obsolet werden, sondern es wird nötig werden, den Ausstieg aus fossilen Energieträgern aktiv politisch zu gestalten. In diesem Sinne empfiehlt die Studie mit Hilfe von "Exnovationsstrategien" auch die potenziellen Verlierer der Energietransformation in den Blick zu nehmen, so Widerstände abzubauen, um den Ausstieg aus der Nutzung fossiler Energieträger rechtzeitig und gleichzeitig sozial gerecht zu erreichen.
Die Innenstadt von Wuppertal Elberfeld wird im kommenden Jahrzehnt konsequent und Schritt für Schritt zu einem autoverkehrsfreien Stadtteil entwickelt. Wuppertal Elberfeld wird damit der erste bestehende Stadtteil in Deutschland, der systematisch von einem Autostadtteil heute zu einem zukünftig autoverkehrsfreien Stadtquartier entwickelt wird.
Von einer autofreien Innenstadt profitieren die Menschen, die Umwelt und die Stadt Wuppertal. Hier kann man die Verkehrswende Wuppertal konkret erleben und Urbanität genießen.
Welche Gewinne dadurch entstehen können und wie der Weg dorthin aussehen könnte, skizzieren die Autoren in diesem Impulspapier, um die Diskussion über das Ziel und den Weg dahin zu eröffnen.
Simulation modeling is useful to understand the mechanisms of the diffusion of innovations, which can be used for forecasting the future of innovations. This study aims to make the identification of such mechanisms less costly in time and labor. We present an approach that automates the generation of diffusion models by: (1) preprocessing of empirical data on the diffusion of a specific innovation, taken out by the user; (2) testing variations of agent-based models for their capability of explaining the data; (3) assessing interventions for their potential to influence the spreading of the innovation. We present a working software implementation of this procedure and apply it to the diffusion of water-saving showerheads. The presented procedure successfully generated simulation models that explained diffusion data. This progresses agent-based modeling methodologically by enabling detailed modeling at relative simplicity for users. This widens the circle of persons that can use simulation to shape innovation.
In the face of growing popularity of eco-feedback innovations, recent studies draw attention to the relevance of the human factor for a more effective design of eco-feedback. This paper explores these challenges more deeply by employing a mixed methods approach. We provide in-situ insights from a Living Lab experiment on the effect of smart home systems and traffic light feedback on heating energy consumption in private households. Our results from an interrupted time series analysis of logged data on indoor room temperature, CO2 concentration and consumption of natural gas show that the interventions do not affect heating as expected, neither for automating behaviour via high-tech smart home systems nor via low-tech traffic light feedback. Smart home systems do not promise a significant reduction of heating energy consumption and a traffic light feedback on indoor air quality does not lead to a reaction of indoor CO2 concentrations, but may reduce heating energy consumption. Qualitative interviews on heating practices of participants suggests that comfort temperatures, lack of competences and inert heating systems do override expected effects of the feedback interventions. We propose that high-tech smart home systems should carefully consider the handling competences of users. Low-tech feedback products on the other hand should by design stronger address user experience factors like comfort temperatures.