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Vom 28. November bis 10. Dezember 2005 fand im kanadischen Montreal die 11. Klimakonferenz (COP 11) statt. Doch diesmal kamen nicht nur die Vertragsstaaten der Klimarahmenkonvention zusammen, sondern es traten gleichzeitig und erstmalig auch die mittlerweile 156 Mitgliedsstaaten des Kyoto-Protokolls zusammen (COP/MOP 1). Neben letzten Weichenstellungen für dessen Umsetzung ging es in Montreal insbesondere darum, Verhandlungen über die Fortentwicklung der Kyoto-Verpflichtungen auf den Weg zu bringen. Ein Anlass, um Bilanz zu ziehen.
The "South-North Dialogue" Proposal, developed by researchers from developing and industrialised countries, outlined equitable approaches to mitigation. These approaches were based on the criteria of responsibility, capability and potential to mitigate, and include deep cuts in industrialised (Annex I) countries and differentiated mitigation commitments for developing countries. This paper quantitatively analyses the implications of the proposal for countries' emissions and costs. The analysis focuses on a "political willingness" scenario and four stabilisation scenarios. The analysis shows that stringent stabilisation targets imply that many developing countries would have to take on quantitative mitigation obligations by 2030, even when the Annex I countries take on ambitious mitigation commitments far beyond the Kyoto obligations. The "political willingness scenario" will probably not suffice to limit a warming of the Earth's atmosphere to below 2 °C.