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Die atompolitische Wende der Bundesregierung hatte zahlreichen Spekulationen und Befürchtungen Raum gegeben. Es wurde gemutmaßt, dass Deutschland zum Nettostromimporteur werden könnte, sollten die Kraftwerke (wie im Sommer 2011 beschlossen) dauerhaft außer Betrieb bleiben. Darüber hinaus nahm man an, dass die in Deutschland entfallende Stromerzeugung durch Kohlekraftwerke oder durch Importe aus französischen oder tschechischen Atomkraftwerken ersetzt würde und dass Strompreise sowie CO2-Emissionen deutlich ansteigen würden. Inzwischen liegen vorläufige Energiebilanzen und Marktdaten für das Jahr 2011 vor, die viele dieser Befürchtungen widerlegen. Der hier vorgenommene Ausblick auf die mögliche Entwicklung in den kommenden Jahren zeigt zudem, dass die Bilanz von 2011 keine Momentaufnahme sein muss, sondern dass der gegenüber 2010 wegfallende Kernenergiestrom - bilanziell gesehen - voraussichtlich bereits ab 2013 allein durch eine erhöhte regenerative Stromerzeugung kompensiert werden kann.
Only three days after the beginning of the nuclear catastrophe in Fukushima, Japan, on 11 March 2011, the German government ordered 8 of the country's 17 existing nuclear power plants (NPPs) to stop operating within a few days. In summer 2011 the government put forward a law - passed in parliament by a large majority - that calls for a complete nuclear phase-out by the end of 2022. These government actions were in contrast to its initial plans, laid out in fall 2010, to expand the lifetimes of the country's NPPs.
The immediate closure of 8 NPPs and the plans for a complete nuclear phase-out within little more than a decade, raised concerns about Germany's ability to secure a stable supply of electricity. Some observers feared power supply shortages, increasing CO2-emissions and a need for Germany to become a net importer of electricity.
Now - a little more than a year after the phase-out law entered into force - this paper examines these concerns using (a) recent statistical data on electricity production and demand in the first 15 months after the German government's immediate reaction to the Fukushima accident and (b) reviews the most recent projections and scenarios by different stakeholders on how the German electricity system may develop until 2025, when NPPs will no longer be in operation.
The paper finds that Germany has a realistic chance of fully replacing nuclear power with additional renewable electricity generation on an annual basis by 2025 or earlier, provided that several related challenges, e.g. expansion of the grids and provision of balancing power, can be solved successfully. Already in 2012 additional electricity generation from renewable energy sources in combination with a reduced domestic demand for electricity will likely fully compensate for the reduced power generation from the NPPs shut down in March 2011.
If current political targets will be realised, Germany neither has to become a net electricity importer, nor will be unable to gradually reduce fossil fuel generated electricity. Whether the reduction in fossil fuel use will be sufficient to adequately contribute to national greenhouse gas mitigation targets significantly depends on an active policy to promote electricity savings, continuous efforts to increase the use of renewables and a higher share of natural gas (preferably used in combined heat and power plants) in fossil fuel power generation.
The present brief analysis provides an overview about costs and benefits of the promotion of renewable energies in the framework of the EEG. We describe the development of the EEG apportionment in recent years, and its possible development in coming years. Furthermore, the analysis examines the merits of some of the most commonly expressed points of criticism against the EEG. Finally, we examine the extent to which the calculations regarding the costs of the expansion of photovoltaics, which are often raised in the media, are correct, and how they are to be interpreted.
Die vorliegende Kurzanalyse gibt einen Überblick über die Kosten und Nutzen der Förderung erneuerbarer Energien im Rahmen des EEG. Dabei wird unter anderem auf die Entwicklung der EEG-Umlage in den letzten Jahren und ihre mögliche Entwicklung in den kommenden Jahren eingegangen. Außerdem setzt sich die Analyse mit einigen grundsätzlichen Kritikpunkten am EEG auseinander. Abschließend wird geprüft, inwieweit häufig durch die Medien aufgegriffene Berechnungen zu den Kosten des Ausbaus der Fotovoltaik zutreffend sind und wie sie zu interpretieren sind.
Several low-carbon energy roadmaps and scenarios have recently been published by the European Commission and the International Energy Agency (IEA) as well as by various stakeholders such as Eurelectric, ECF and Greenpeace. Discussions of these studies mainly focus on technology options available on the electricity supply side and mostly omit the significant challenges that all of the scenarios impose on the energy demand side.
A comparison of 5 decarbonisation scenarios from 4 of the most relevant recent scenario studies for the EU shows that all of them imply significant efficiency improvements in traditional appliances, usually well above levels historically observed over longer periods of time. At the same time they assume substantial electrification of transportation and heating. The scenarios suggest that both of these challenges need to be tackled successfully for decarbonising the energy system.
With shares of renewable electricity reaching at least 60 % of supply in 2050 in almost all of the decarbonisation scenarios, the adaptation of demand to variable supply becomes increasingly important. This aspect of demand side management should therefore be part of any policy mix aiming for a low-carbon power system.
Based on a quantitative analysis of 5 decarbonisation scenarios and a comparison with historical evidence we derive the (implicit) new challenges posed by the current low-carbon roadmaps and develop recommendations for energy policy on the electricity demand side.
The EU aims to become the first climate neutral continent. To achieve this goal, the industry sector needs to reduce its GHG emissions to net zero or at least close to net zero. This is a particularly challenging task due to the high energy demand especially of primary materials production and the little potential to reduce this energy intensity when switching to other production processes based on electricity or hydrogen. In order to identify robust strategies for achieving a net-zero-compatible industry sector, the paper at hand analyses the transformation of the industry sector as described by a number of recent climate neutrality scenarios for Germany. Apart from overall industry, a focus is set on the sectors of steel, chemicals and cement. The analysed scenarios show very deep GHG emission reductions in industry and they appear to be techno-economically feasible by the mid of the century, without relying on offsets or on shifts from domestic production to imports. The scenarios agree on a suite of core strategies to achieve this, such as direct and indirect electrification, energy efficiency and recycling as well as new technological routes in steel making and cement. The scenarios differ, however, regarding the future mix of electricity, hydrogen and biomass and regarding the future relevance of domestic production of basic chemicals.
Unter den Stichworten "Sektorenkopplung" und "Power-to-X" werden derzeit viele Möglichkeiten der direkten und indirekten Elektrifizierung großer Teile der Endenergienachfrage intensiv diskutiert. In diesem Zusammenhang hat die Diskussion um Wasserstoff als Endenergieträger sowie als Feedstock für die Herstellung von synthetischen Kraftstoffen und chemischen Grundstoffen zuletzt stark an Bedeutung gewonnen. Insbesondere der klimaneutrale Umbau der Grundstoffindustrien und hier vor allem der Grundstoffchemie und der Stahlindustrie würde bedeutende Mengen an grünem Wasserstoff benötigen, die räumlich stark auf die großen Industriekerne fokussiert wären. Ein zeitnaher Einstieg in die Schaffung entsprechender Erzeugungskapazitäten und Infrastrukturen könnte dazu führen, dass Wasserstoff - neben erneuerbaren Energien und Energieeffizienz - zum dritten Standbein der Energiewende avanciert.
International consensus is growing that a transition towards a low carbon society (LCS) is needed over the next 40 years. The G8, the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate, as well as the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, have concluded that states should prepare their own Low-emission Plans or Low-emission Development Plans and such plans are in development in an increasing number of countries.
An analysis of recent long-term low emission scenarios for Germany shows that all scenarios rely heavily on a massive scale up of energy efficiency improvements based on past trends. However, in spite of the high potential that scenario developers assign to this strategy, huge uncertainty still exists in respect of where the efficiency potentials really lie, how and if they can be achieved and how much their successful implementation depends on more fundamental changes towards a more sustainable society (e.g. behavioural changes).
In order to come to a better understanding of this issue we specifically examine the potential for energy efficiency in relation to particular demand sectors. Our comparative analysis shows that despite general agreement about the high importance of energy efficiency (EE), the perception on where and how to achieve it differ between the analysed scenarios. It also shows that the close nexus between energy efficiency and non-technical behavioural aspects is still little understood. This leads us to the conclusion that in order to support energy policy decisions more research should be done on energy efficiency potential. A better understanding of its potential would help energy efficiency to fulfil its role in the transition towards a LCS.