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Modelling a socially and environmentally sustainable Europe : final report part II: Technical report
(1998)
Der Stoffhaushalt nationaler Volkswirtschaften und Aspekte eines nachhaltigen Ressourcenmanagements
(2002)
Consumption of natural resources should not exceed sustainable levels. The increasing use of biofuels and to some extent biomaterials, on top of rising food and feed demands, is causing countries to use a growing amount of global land, which may lead to land use conflicts and the expansion of cropland and intensive cultivation at the expense of natural ecosystems. Selective product certification cannot control the land use change triggered by growing overall biomass consumption. We propose a comprehensive approach to account for the global land use of countries for their domestic consumption, and assess this level with regard to globally acceptable levels of resource use, based on the concept of safe operating space. It is shown that the European Union currently uses one-third more cropland than globally available on a per capita basis and that with constant consumption levels it would exceed its fair share of acceptable resource use in 2030. As the use of global forests to meet renewable energy targets is becoming a concern, an approach to account for sustainable levels of timber flows is also proposed, based on the use of net annual increment, exemplified with preliminary data for Switzerland. Altogether, our approach would integrate the concept of sustainable consumption into national resource management plans; offering a conceptual basis and concrete reference values for informed policy making and urging countries to monitor and adjust their levels of resource consumption in a comprehensive way, respectful of the limits of sustainable supply.
The paper reviews the current knowledge on the use of biomass for non-food purposes, critically discusses its environmental sustainability implications, and describes the needs for further research, thus enabling a more balanced policy approach. The life-cylce wide impacts of the use of biomass for energy and material purposes derived from either direct crop harvest or residuals indicate that biomass based substitutes have a different, not always superior environmental performance than comparable fossil based products. Cascading use, i.e. when biomass is used for material products first and the energy content is recovered from the end-of-life products, tends to provide a higher environmental benefit than primary use as fuel. Due to limited global land resources, non-food biomass may only substitute for a certain share of non-renewables. If the demand for non-food biomass, especially fuel crops and its derivates, continues to grow this will inevitably lead to an expansion of global arable land at the expense of natural ecosystems such as savannas and tropical rain forests. Whereas the current aspirations and incentives to increase the use of non-food biomass are intended to counteract climate change and environmental degradation, they are thus bound to a high risk of problem shifting and may even lead to a global deterioration of the environment. Although the "balanced approach" of the European Union's biomass strategy may be deemed a good principle, the concrete targets and implementation measures in the Union and countries like Germany should be revisited. Likewise, countries like Brazil and Indonesia may revisit their strategies to use their natural resources for export or domestic purposes. Further research is needed to optimize the use of biomass within and between regions.
Ein Maß für die Zukunft
(1995)
Maße für die Zukunft
(1994)
The global land area required to meet the German consumption of agricultural products for food and non-food use was quantified, and the related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, particularly those induced by land-use changes in tropical countries, were estimated. Two comprehensive business-as-usual scenarios describe the development corridor of biomass for non-food use in terms of energetic and non-energetic purposes. In terms of land use, Germany was already a net importer of agricultural land in 2004, and the net additional land required by 2030 is estimated to comprise 2.5–3.4 Mha. This is mainly due to biofuel demand driven by current policy targets. Meeting the required biodiesel import demand would result in an additional GWP of 23–37 Tg of CO2 equivalents through direct and indirect land-use changes. Alternative scenario elements outline the potential options for reducing Germany's land requirement, which reflect future global per capita availability.
Rationale for and interpretation of economy-wide materials flow analysis and derived indicators
(2003)
Economy-wide material flow analysis (MFA) and derived indicators have been developed to monitor and assess the metabolic performance of economies, that is, with respect to the internal economic flows and the exchange of materials with the environment and with other economies. Indicators such as direct material input (DMI) and direct material consumption (DMC) measure material use related to either production or consumption. Domestic hidden flows (HF) account for unused domestic extraction, and foreign HF represent the upstream primary resource requirements of the imports. DMI and domestic and foreign HF account for the total material requirement (TMR) of an economy. Subtracting the exports and their HF provides the total material consumption (TMC). DMI and TMR are used to measure the (de-) coupling of resource use and economic growth, providing the basis for resource efficiency indicators. Accounting for TMR allows detection of shifts from domestic to foreign resource requirements. Net addition to stock (NAS) measures the physical growth of an economy. It indicates the distance from flow equilibrium of inputs and outputs that may be regarded as a necessary condition of a sustainable mature metabolism. We discuss the extent to which MFA-based indicators can also be used to assess the environmental performance. For that purpose we consider different impacts of material flows, and different scales and perspectives of the analysis, and distinguish between turnover-based indicators of generic environmental pressure and impact-based indicators of specific environmental pressure. Indicators such as TMR and TMC are regarded as generic pressure indicators that may not be used to indicate specific environmental impacts. The TMR of industrial countries is discussed with respect to the question of whether volume and composition may be regarded as unsustainable.
Resource flows constitute the materials basis of the economy. At the same time, they carry and induce an environmental burden associated with resource extraction and the subsequent material flows and stocks, which finally end up as waste and emissions. A reduction of this material throughput and the related impacts would require a reduction of resource inputs. And breaking the link between resource consumption and economicgrowth would require an increase in resource productivity. Material flow analysis (MFA) can be used to quantify resource flows and indicate resource productivity. In this article, we study the available empirical evidence on the actual (de-)linkage of material resource use and economic growth. We compare resource use with respect to total material requirement (TMR) and direct material input (DMI) for 11 and 26 countries, respectively, and the European Union (EU-15). The dynamics of TMR, as well as of the main components are analysed in relation to economic growth in order to show whether there is a decoupling (relative or absolute) from GDP and a change of the metabolic structure in the course of economicdevelopment. DMI/cap so far only decoupled from GDP/cap in relative terms; that is, in most countries, it reached a rather constant level but - with the exception of Czech Republic - showed no absolute decline yet. TMR/cap was reduced in two high-income countries and one low-income country due to political influence. Changes in TMR were more influenced by hidden flows (HF) than by DMI. We analyse the dynamics of the structure and composition of TMR in the course of economic development. In general, the economic development of industrial countries was accompanied by a shift from domestic to foreign resource extraction. Different relations can be discovered for the share of biomass, fossil fuel resources, construction resources and metals and industrial minerals.
Global trade is increasingly being challenged by observations of growing burden shifting, in particular of environmental problems. This paper presents the first worldwide calculations of shifted burden based on material flow indicators, in particular direct and indirect physical trade balances. This study covers the period between 1962 and 2005 and includes between 82 and 173 countries per year. The results show that indirect trade flow volumes have increased to around 41 billion tonnes in 2005. The traded resources with the highest share of associated indirect flows are iron, hard coal, copper, tin and increasingly palm oil. Regarding the burden balance between regions, Europe is the biggest shifter whereas Australia and Latin America are the largest takers of environmental burden due to resource extraction. To evaluate the findings from a global perspective, the results are analysed in terms of resource flow induced environmental pressure related to a country's land area in terms of total and per capita area. Resource endowment and population density seem to be more relevant in determining the physical trade balance, including indirect flows, than income level.
This contribution presents the state of the art of economy-wide material flow accounting. Starting from a brief recollection of the intellectual and policy history of this approach, we outline system definition, key methodological assumptions, and derived indicators. The next section makes an effort to establish data reliability and uncertainty for a number of existing multinational (European and global) material flow accounting (MFA) data compilations and discusses sources of inconsistencies and variations for some indicators and trends. The results show that the methodology has reached a certain maturity: Coefficients of variation between databases lie in the range of 10% to 20%, and correlations between databases across countries amount to an average R2 of 0.95. After discussing some of the research frontiers for further methodological development, we conclude that the material flow accounting framework and the data generated have reached a maturity that warrants material flow indicators to complement traditional economic and demographic information in providing a sound basis for discussing national and international policies for sustainable resource use.
Der Materialverbrauch entwickelter Volkswirtschaften wird von verschiedener Seite als zentraler Indikator für die ökologische Zukunftsfähigkeit industriellen Wirtschaftens angesehen: die vom Menschen verursachten Stoffströme seien zu hoch und müßten reduziert werden, um die Ökosphäre als Grundlage menschlichen Lebens und Wirtschaftens nachhaltig zu sichern. Am Wuppertal Institut wurden daher erstmals Zeitreihen verschiedener Kategorien des gesamtwirtschaftlichen Materialverbrauchs ermittelt und publiziert. Internationale Vergleichsdaten existieren für die USA, die Niederlande und Japan. In diesem Papier werden nun Vergleiche anderer Art angestellt: wie entwickelte sich in den letzten drei Jahrzehnten das ökologische Belastungspotential der deutschen Volkswirtschaft, gemessen an den Materialströmen, im Vergleich zu ökonomischen Eckdaten, wie dem realen Bruttoinlandsprodukt, der Beschäftigung, oder des Kapitalstocks. Das Ziel dieses Papiers besteht darin, die Zeitreihen dieser ökologischen Indikatoren denen solcher ökonomischer Größen gegenüberzustellen, mit denen sie in einem produktionstheoretischen Zusammenhang stehen. Auf Basis derartiger Arbeiten sind vertiefende und empirisch abgesicherte Aussagen zu einer Entkopplung des BIP vom Materialverbrauch sowie zu den Möglichkeiten eines technischen Fortschritts möglich, der arbeitsschaffend und umweltsparend verläuft.
Material flows induced by national economies can be regarded as indirect pressure indicators for environmental degradation. Economy-wide material flow analysis and indicators have been designed to monitor material and energy flows at the macroeconomic level and to provide indicators, which could contribute to management of resourceuse and output emission flows from both economic, environmental and broader sustainability points of view. These indicators can serve various purposes including monitoring the material basis of national economies and related environmental pressures, assessment of the material and resource productivity and monitoring the implications of trade and globalisation.
The main part of this paper compares the material and resourceuse of the Czech Republic, Germany and the EU-15 by means of DMI and TMR indicators over the period of 1991–2004 (1991–2000 for EU-15). At the aggregate level both indicators in all three economies do not show any clear decreasing or increasing trends over the period considered. This means that environmental pressure related to use of materials for production and consumption purposes remains rather stable. All the economies however, recorded an increase in the efficiency of transforming the material/resource inputs into economic output. The analysis further revealed that most of the dynamics of DMI and TMR in the Czech Republic tended towards a higher similarity with Germany and the EU-15. In the future, further decreases in DMI as well as in TMR of fossils fuels might be expected in the Czech Republic, which could be counteracted by increase in DMI and TMR of metal ores/metal resources and non-metallic minerals/non-metallic resources. The future development of total DMI, TMR and material/resource intensity in both the Czech Republic and Germany will depend on further shifts to less material intensive industries and services and on increasing material efficiency in production and consumption of particular products. This is not only a technological, but also a social challenge, as there are barriers in current mode of governance and in shaping of current economic and social systems to do so.
Weiter, schneller, mehr - noch treibt dieses Credo die Industriegesellschaft voran, doch unser ressourcen- und energieintensives Wohlstandmodell ist weder zukunftsfähig noch zu verallgemeinern. Die Studie des Wuppertal Instituts geht der Frage nach, wie eine nachhaltige Entwicklung Deutschlands erreicht werden könnte.