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A clear understanding of socio-technical interdependencies and a structured vision are prerequisites for fostering and steering a transition to a fully renewables-based energy system. To facilitate such understanding, a phase model for the renewable energy (RE) transition in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries has been developed and applied to the country case of Lebanon. It is designed to support the strategy development and governance of the energy transition and to serve as a guide for decision makers.
Lebanon's energy transition towards REs stands at a very early stage of the first transformation phase. Although abundant solar and wind energy potential does exist, the pathway towards a 100% renewables energy seems very challenging for Lebanon, as a consequence of highly unstable political conditions. The most pressing concern for Lebanon's electricity sector is combating the country's fiscal imbalance, while providing secure and reliable electricity supply. At the operational level, Lebanon's grid network requires significant investments to rebuild, retrofit, and expand the overall capacity and energy efficiency improvements.
The need to strengthen the energy system after the political turmoil of the civil war is likely to offer several long-term opportunities, such as developing the economy, reducing environmental pollution, and increasing the energy security. In order to move forward into the first phase, Lebanon needs to improve the framework conditions for REs and implement its visions. It needs to support the market development in a realistic timeframe, where structural reforms represent the highest priority.
The results of the analysis along the transition phase model towards 100% renewables energy are intended to stimulate and support the discussion on Lebanon's future energy system by providing an overarching guiding vision for the energy transition and the development of appropriate policies.