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Only three days after the beginning of the nuclear catastrophe in Fukushima, Japan, on 11 March 2011, the German government ordered 8 of the country's 17 existing nuclear power plants (NPPs) to stop operating within a few days. In summer 2011 the government put forward a law - passed in parliament by a large majority - that calls for a complete nuclear phase-out by the end of 2022. These government actions were in contrast to its initial plans, laid out in fall 2010, to expand the lifetimes of the country's NPPs.
The immediate closure of 8 NPPs and the plans for a complete nuclear phase-out within little more than a decade, raised concerns about Germany's ability to secure a stable supply of electricity. Some observers feared power supply shortages, increasing CO2-emissions and a need for Germany to become a net importer of electricity.
Now - a little more than a year after the phase-out law entered into force - this paper examines these concerns using (a) recent statistical data on electricity production and demand in the first 15 months after the German government's immediate reaction to the Fukushima accident and (b) reviews the most recent projections and scenarios by different stakeholders on how the German electricity system may develop until 2025, when NPPs will no longer be in operation.
The paper finds that Germany has a realistic chance of fully replacing nuclear power with additional renewable electricity generation on an annual basis by 2025 or earlier, provided that several related challenges, e.g. expansion of the grids and provision of balancing power, can be solved successfully. Already in 2012 additional electricity generation from renewable energy sources in combination with a reduced domestic demand for electricity will likely fully compensate for the reduced power generation from the NPPs shut down in March 2011.
If current political targets will be realised, Germany neither has to become a net electricity importer, nor will be unable to gradually reduce fossil fuel generated electricity. Whether the reduction in fossil fuel use will be sufficient to adequately contribute to national greenhouse gas mitigation targets significantly depends on an active policy to promote electricity savings, continuous efforts to increase the use of renewables and a higher share of natural gas (preferably used in combined heat and power plants) in fossil fuel power generation.
Wind energy that can neither be fed into the grid nor be used regionally must be curtailed. This paper proposes different options to deal with such surplus wind energy amounts in a time horizon until 2020. It assesses their ability to handle the surplus energy in a sustainable way using a multi criteria analysis. The paper bases on a study that was prepared for the Ministry for Climate Protection, Environment, Agriculture, Nature Conservation and Consumer Protection of North Rhine-Westphalia between 2010 and 2012.
The present brief analysis provides an overview about costs and benefits of the promotion of renewable energies in the framework of the EEG. We describe the development of the EEG apportionment in recent years, and its possible development in coming years. Furthermore, the analysis examines the merits of some of the most commonly expressed points of criticism against the EEG. Finally, we examine the extent to which the calculations regarding the costs of the expansion of photovoltaics, which are often raised in the media, are correct, and how they are to be interpreted.
Die vorliegende Kurzanalyse gibt einen Überblick über die Kosten und Nutzen der Förderung erneuerbarer Energien im Rahmen des EEG. Dabei wird unter anderem auf die Entwicklung der EEG-Umlage in den letzten Jahren und ihre mögliche Entwicklung in den kommenden Jahren eingegangen. Außerdem setzt sich die Analyse mit einigen grundsätzlichen Kritikpunkten am EEG auseinander. Abschließend wird geprüft, inwieweit häufig durch die Medien aufgegriffene Berechnungen zu den Kosten des Ausbaus der Fotovoltaik zutreffend sind und wie sie zu interpretieren sind.
Several low-carbon energy roadmaps and scenarios have recently been published by the European Commission and the International Energy Agency (IEA) as well as by various stakeholders such as Eurelectric, ECF and Greenpeace. Discussions of these studies mainly focus on technology options available on the electricity supply side and mostly omit the significant challenges that all of the scenarios impose on the energy demand side.
A comparison of 5 decarbonisation scenarios from 4 of the most relevant recent scenario studies for the EU shows that all of them imply significant efficiency improvements in traditional appliances, usually well above levels historically observed over longer periods of time. At the same time they assume substantial electrification of transportation and heating. The scenarios suggest that both of these challenges need to be tackled successfully for decarbonising the energy system.
With shares of renewable electricity reaching at least 60 % of supply in 2050 in almost all of the decarbonisation scenarios, the adaptation of demand to variable supply becomes increasingly important. This aspect of demand side management should therefore be part of any policy mix aiming for a low-carbon power system.
Based on a quantitative analysis of 5 decarbonisation scenarios and a comparison with historical evidence we derive the (implicit) new challenges posed by the current low-carbon roadmaps and develop recommendations for energy policy on the electricity demand side.
Decarbonisation of energy systems requires deep structural change. The purpose of this research was to analyse the rates of change taking place in the energy systems of the European Union (EU), in the light of the EU's climate change mitigation objectives. Trends on indicators such as energy intensity and carbon intensity of energy were compared with decadal benchmarks derived from deep decarbonisation scenarios for the electricity, residential, transport, and industry sectors. The methodology applied provides a useful and informative approach to tracking decarbonisation of energy systems. The results show that the EU has made significant progress in decarbonising its energy systems. On a number of indicators assessed the results show that a significant acceleration from historical levels is required in order to reach the rates of change seen on the future benchmarks for deep decarbonisation. The methodology applied provides an example of how the research community and international organisations could complement the transparency mechanism developed by the Paris Agreement on climate change, to improve understanding of progress toward low-carbon energy systems.
The experience curve theory assumes that technology costs decline as experience of a technology is gained through production and use. This article reviews the literature on the experience curve theory and its empirical evidence in the field of electricity generation technologies. Differences in the characteristics of experience curves found in the literature are systematically presented and the limitations of the experience curve theory, as well as its use in energy models, are discussed. The article finds that for some electricity generation technologies, especially small-scale modular technologies, there has been a remarkably strong (negative) relationship between experience and cost for several decades. Conversely, for other technologies, especially large-scale and highly complex technologies, the experience curve does not appear to be a useful tool for explaining cost changes over time. The literature review suggests that when analysing past cost developments and projecting future cost developments, researchers should be aware that factors other than experience may have significant influence. It may be worthwhile trying to incorporate some of these additional factors into energy system models, although considerable uncertainties remain in quantifying the relevance of some of these factors.
The final report of the research project "Power Sector Decarbonisation: Metastudy" contains the various reports prepared by Öko-Institut and Wuppertal Institute during the course of the SEFEP funded project. A key objective of the project was to make a contribution to the debates within the European Union (EU) and Member States on the EU's Energy Roadmap 2050 publication, which was released in December 2011. This objective was achieved by systematically analysing and comparing recently published scenarios on the European electricity sector commissioned by a range of different stakeholders (environmental NGOs, industry and government agencies).
Bis zum Jahr 2050 ist in Deutschland ein ausreichender Klima- und Ressourcenschutz technisch möglich und für die Volkswirtschaft vorteilhafter als eine Referenzentwicklung ("business as usual"): Das ist die Kernbotschaft, die von einer Vielzahl vorliegender Langfrist-Energieszenarien ausgeht. Auch das aktuelle Energiekonzept (September 2010) der Regierungskoalition aus CDU/CSU und FDP formuliert - gestützt auf Szenarien - quantifizierte Leitziele, die noch vor einigen Jahren als ökologische Utopien abgetan worden wären. Ist die Energiepolitik also auf einem guten Weg? Wie weit tragen die Techniken für Energieeffizienz und Erneuerbare? Ist effizient auch suffizient? Dieser Beitrag beantwortet diese Fragen mit drei Thesen. Erstens: Die Integration von Energieeffizienz und erneuerbaren Energien ist "die Brücke" zur Nachhaltigkeit. Zweitens: Die volkswirtschaftlich attraktiven Synergien zwischen Ressourcen- und Energieeffizienz müssen gehoben werden. Drittens: Eine Strategie für mehr Ressourceneffizienz muss in eine "Kultur der Genügsamkeit" eingebettet werden.