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The Paris Agreement introduces long-term strategies as an instrument to inform progressively more ambitious emission reduction objectives, while holding development goals paramount in the context of national circumstances. In the lead up to the twenty-first Conference of the Parties, the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project developed mid-century low-emission pathways for 16 countries, based on an innovative pathway design framework. In this Perspective, we describe this framework and show how it can support the development of sectorally and technologically detailed, policy-relevant and country-driven strategies consistent with the Paris Agreement climate goal. We also discuss how this framework can be used to engage stakeholder input and buy-in; design implementation policy packages; reveal necessary technological, financial and institutional enabling conditions; and support global stocktaking and increasing of ambition.
This article reviews the literature on the past cost dynamics of various renewable, fossil fuel and nuclear electricity generation technologies. It identifies 10 different factors which have played key roles in influencing past cost developments according to the literature. These 10 factors are: deployment-induced learning, research, development and demonstration (RD&D)-induced learning, knowledge spillovers from other technologies, upsizing, economies of manufacturing scale, economies of project scale, changes in material and labour costs, changes in fuel costs, regulatory changes, and limits to the availability of suitable sites. The article summarises the relevant literature findings for each of these 10 factors and provides an overview indicating which factors have impacted on which generation technologies. The article also discusses the insights gained from the review for a better understanding of possible future cost developments of electricity generation technologies. Finally, future research needs, which may support a better understanding of past and future cost developments, are identified.
Roadmaps for India's energy future foresee that coal power will continue to play a considerable role until the middle of the 21st century. Among other options, carbon capture and storage (CCS) is being considered as a potential technology for decarbonising the power sector. Consequently, it is important to quantify the relative benefits and trade-offs of coal-CCS in comparison to its competing renewable power sources from multiple sustainability perspectives. In this paper, we assess coal-CCS pathways in India up to 2050 and compare coal-CCS with conventional coal, solar PV and wind power sources through an integrated assessment approach coupled with a nexus perspective (energy-cost-climate-water nexus). Our levelized costs assessment reveals that coal-CCS is expensive and significant cost reductions would be needed for CCS to compete in the Indian power market. In addition, although carbon pricing could make coal-CCS competitive in relation to conventional coal power plants, it cannot influence the lack of competitiveness of coal-CCS with respect to renewables. From a climate perspective, CCS can significantly reduce the life cycle GHG emissions of conventional coal power plants, but renewables are better positioned than coal-CCS if the goal is ambitious climate change mitigation. Our water footprint assessment reveals that coal-CCS consumes an enormous volume of water resources in comparison to conventional coal and, in particular, to renewables. To conclude, our findings highlight that coal-CCS not only suffers from typical new technology development related challenges - such as a lack of technical potential assessments and necessary support infrastructure, and high costs - but also from severe resource constraints (especially water) in an era of global warming and the competition from outperforming renewable power sources. Our study, therefore, adds a considerable level of techno-economic and environmental nexus specificity to the current debate about coal-based large-scale CCS and the low carbon energy transition in emerging and developing economies in the Global South.
The German government has set itself the target of reducing the country's GHG emissions by between 80 and 95% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels. Alongside energy efficiency, renewable energy sources are set to play the main role in this transition. However, the large-scale deployment of renewable energies is expected to cause increased demand for critical mineral resources. The aim of this article is therefore to determine whether the transformation of the German energy system by 2050 ("Energiewende") may possibly be restricted by a lack of critical minerals, focusing primarily on the power sector (generating, transporting and storing electricity from renewable sources). For the relevant technologies, we create roadmaps describing a number of conceivable quantitative market developments in Germany. Estimating the current and future specific material demand of the options selected and projecting them along a range of long-term energy scenarios allows us to assess potential medium- or long-term mineral resource restrictions. The main conclusion we draw is that the shift towards an energy system based on renewable sources that is currently being pursued is principally compatible with the geological availability and supply of mineral resources. In fact, we identified certain sub-technologies as being critical with regard to potential supply risks, owing to dependencies on a small number of supplier countries and competing uses. These sub-technologies are certain wind power plants requiring neodymium and dysprosium, thin-film CIGS photovoltaic cells using indium and selenium, and large-scale redox flow batteries using vanadium. However, non-critical alternatives to these technologies do indeed exist. The likelihood of supplies being restricted can be decreased further by cooperating even more closely with companies in the supplier countries and their governments, and by establishing greater resource efficiency and recyclability as key elements of technology development.
Only three days after the beginning of the nuclear catastrophe in Fukushima, Japan, on 11 March 2011, the German government ordered 8 of the country's 17 existing nuclear power plants (NPPs) to stop operating within a few days. In summer 2011 the government put forward a law - passed in parliament by a large majority - that calls for a complete nuclear phase-out by the end of 2022. These government actions were in contrast to its initial plans, laid out in fall 2010, to expand the lifetimes of the country's NPPs.
The immediate closure of 8 NPPs and the plans for a complete nuclear phase-out within little more than a decade, raised concerns about Germany's ability to secure a stable supply of electricity. Some observers feared power supply shortages, increasing CO2-emissions and a need for Germany to become a net importer of electricity.
Now - a little more than a year after the phase-out law entered into force - this paper examines these concerns using (a) recent statistical data on electricity production and demand in the first 15 months after the German government's immediate reaction to the Fukushima accident and (b) reviews the most recent projections and scenarios by different stakeholders on how the German electricity system may develop until 2025, when NPPs will no longer be in operation.
The paper finds that Germany has a realistic chance of fully replacing nuclear power with additional renewable electricity generation on an annual basis by 2025 or earlier, provided that several related challenges, e.g. expansion of the grids and provision of balancing power, can be solved successfully. Already in 2012 additional electricity generation from renewable energy sources in combination with a reduced domestic demand for electricity will likely fully compensate for the reduced power generation from the NPPs shut down in March 2011.
If current political targets will be realised, Germany neither has to become a net electricity importer, nor will be unable to gradually reduce fossil fuel generated electricity. Whether the reduction in fossil fuel use will be sufficient to adequately contribute to national greenhouse gas mitigation targets significantly depends on an active policy to promote electricity savings, continuous efforts to increase the use of renewables and a higher share of natural gas (preferably used in combined heat and power plants) in fossil fuel power generation.
The basic materials industries are a cornerstone of Europe's economic prosperity, increasing gross value added and providing around 2 million high-quality jobs. But they are also a major source of greenhouse gas emissions. Despite efficiency improvements, emissions from these industries were mostly constant for several years prior to the Covid-19 crisis and today account for 20 per cent of the EU's total greenhouse gas emissions.
A central question is therefore: How can the basic material industries in the EU become climate-neutral by 2050 while maintaining a strong position in a highly competitive global market? And how can these industries help the EU reach the higher 2030 climate target - a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions of at least 55 per cent relative to 1990 levels?
In the EU policy debate on the European Green Deal, many suppose that the basic materials industries can do little to achieve deep cuts in emissions by 2030. Beyond improvements to the efficiency of existing technologies, they assume that no further innovations will be feasible within that period. This study takes a different view. It shows that a more ambitious approach involving the early implementation of key low-carbon technologies and a Clean Industry Package is not just possible, but in fact necessary to safeguard global competitiveness.
The present brief analysis provides an overview about costs and benefits of the promotion of renewable energies in the framework of the EEG. We describe the development of the EEG apportionment in recent years, and its possible development in coming years. Furthermore, the analysis examines the merits of some of the most commonly expressed points of criticism against the EEG. Finally, we examine the extent to which the calculations regarding the costs of the expansion of photovoltaics, which are often raised in the media, are correct, and how they are to be interpreted.
Carbon markets in a <2 °C world : will there be room for international carbon trading in 2050?
(2016)
This JIKO Policy Paper analyses a series of very ambitious mitigation scenarios and complements this analysis with a review of several sectoral technology roadmaps. The results are quite clear: there is no reason to believe that international carbon trading will become obsolete any time soon. Whether or not international carbon trading is to play a role in international climate protection efforts is in the end not a physical or economic question, but a political one.
This report was prepared by the Wuppertal Institute in cooperation with the German Economic Institute as part of the SCI4climate.NRW project. The report aims to shed light on the possible phenomenon that the availability and costs of "green" energy sources may become a relevant location factor for basic materials produced in a climate-neutral manner in the future.
For this purpose, we introduce the term "Renewables Pull". We define Renewables Pull as the initially hypothetical phenomenon of a shift of industrial production from one region to another as a result of different marginal costs of renewable energies (or of secondary energy sources or feedstocks based on renewable energies).
Shifts in industrial production in the sense of Renewables Pull can in principle be caused by differences in the stringency of climate policies in different countries, as in the case of Carbon Leakage. Unlike Carbon Leakage, however, Renewables Pull can also occur if similarly ambitious climate policies are implemented in different countries. This is because Renewables Pull is primarily determined by differences in the costs and availability of renewable energies. In addition, Renewables Pull can also be triggered by cost reductions of renewable energies and by changing preferences on the demand side towards climate-friendly products. Another important difference to Carbon Leakage is that the Renewables Pull effect does not necessarily counteract climate policy.
Similar to Carbon Leakage, it is to be expected that Renewables Pull could become relevant primarily for very energy-intensive products in basic materials industries. In these sectors (e.g. in the steel or chemical industry), there is also the possibility that relocations of specific energy-intensive parts of the production process could trigger domino effects. As a result, large parts of the value chains previously existing in a country or region could also be subjected to an (indirect) Renewables Pull effect.
For the federal state of NRW, in which the basic materials industry plays an important role, the possible emergence of Renewables Pull is associated with significant challenges as climate policy in Germany, the EU and also worldwide is expected to become more ambitious in the future.
This report aims to enable and initiate a deeper analysis of the potential future developments and challenges associated with the Renewables Pull effect. Thus, in the final chapter of the report, several research questions are formulated that can be answered in the further course of the SCI4climate.NRW project as well as in other research projects.
On behalf of the Port of Rotterdam Authority, the Wuppertal Institute developed three possible pathways for a decarbonised port of Rotterdam until 2050. The port area is home to about 80 per cent of the Netherlands' petrochemical industry and significant power plant capacities. Consequently, the port of Rotterdam has the potential of being an international leader for the global energy transition, playing an important role when it comes to reducing CO2 emissions in order to deliver on the EU's long-term climate goals.
The three decarbonisation scenarios all built on the increasing use of renewables (wind and solar power) and the adoption of the best available technologies (efficiency). The analysis focuses on power plants, refineries and the chemical industry, which together are responsible for more than 90 per cent of the port area's current CO2 emissions.
The decarbonisation scenarios describe how CO2 emissions could be reduced by 75 to 98 per cent in 2050 (compared to 2015). Depending on the scenario, different mitigation strategies are relied upon, including electrification, closure of carbon cycles or carbon capture and storage (CCS). The study includes recommendations for local companies, the Port Authority as well as policy makers. In addition, the study includes a reference scenario, which makes it clear that a "business as usual" mentality will fall well short of contributing adequately to the EU's long-term climate goals.
The Port of Rotterdam is an important industrial cluster mainly comprising of oil refining, chemical manufacturing and power and steam generation. In 2015, the area accounted for 18 % of the Netherlands' total CO2 emissions. The Port of Rotterdam Authority is aware that the port's economy is heavily exposed to future global and EU decarbonization policies, as the bulk of its activities focuses on trading, handling, converting and using fossil fuels. Based on a study for the Port Authority, our paper explores possible pathways of how the industrial cluster can keep its strong market position in Europe and still reduce its CO2 emissions by 98 % by 2050. The "Biomass and CCS" scenario assumes that large amounts of biomass can be supplied sustainably and will be used in the port for power generation as well as for feedstock for refineries and the chemical industry. Fischer-Tropsch fuel generation plays an important role in this scenario, allowing the port to become a key cluster for the production of synthetic fuels and feedstocks in Western Europe. The "Closed Carbon Cycle" scenario assumes that renewables-based electricity will be used at the port to supply heat and hydrogen for the synthetic generation of feedstock for the chemical industry. The carbon required for the chemicals will stem from recycled waste. Technologies particularly needed in this scenario are water electrolysis and gasification or pyrolysis to capture carbon from waste, as well as technologies for the production of base chemicals from syngas. The paper compares both scenarios with regard to their respective technological choices and infrastructural changes. The scenarios’ particular opportunities and challenges are also discussed. Using possible future pathways of a major European petrochemical cluster as an example, the paper illustrates options for deep decarbonisation of energy intensive industries in the EU and beyond.
Development of alternative energy and climate scenarios for the Czech Republic : final report
(2009)
Following the decisions of the Paris climate conference at the end of 2015 as well as similar announcements e.g. from the G7 in Elmau (Germany) in the summer of 2015, long-term strategies aiming at (almost) full decarbonisation of the energy systems increasingly move into the focus of climate and energy policy. Deep decarbonisation obviously requires a complete switch of energy supply towards zero GHG emission sources, such as renewable energy. A large number of both global as well as national climate change mitigation scenarios emphasize that energy efficiency will likewise play a key role in achieving deep decarbonization. However, the interdependencies between a transformation of energy supply on the one hand and the role of and prospects for energy efficiency on the other hand are rarely explored in detail.
This article explores these interdependencies based on a scenario for Germany that describes a future energy system relying entirely on renewable energy sources. Our analysis emphasizes that generally, considerable energy efficiency improvements on the demand side are required in order to have a realistic chance of transforming the German energy system towards 100 % renewables. Efficiency improvements are especially important if energy demand sectors will continue to require large amounts of liquid and gaseous fuels, as the production of these fuels are associated with considerable energy losses in a 100 % renewables future. Energy efficiency on the supply side will therefore differ considerably depending on how strongly the use of liquid and gaseous fuels in the various demand sectors can be substituted through the direct use of electricity. Apart from a general discussion of the role of energy efficiency in a 100 % renewable future, we also look at the role of and prospects for energy efficiency in each individual demand sector.
We conduct a systematic, interdisciplinary review of empirical literature assessing evidence on induced innovation in energy and related technologies. We explore links between demand-drivers (both market-wide and targeted); indicators of innovation (principally, patents); and outcomes (cost reduction, efficiency, and multi-sector/macro consequences). We build on existing reviews in different fields and assess over 200 papers containing original data analysis. Papers linking drivers to patents, and indicators of cumulative capacity to cost reductions (experience curves), dominate the literature. The former does not directly link patents to outcomes; the latter does not directly test for the causal impact of on cost reductions). Diverse other literatures provide additional evidence concerning the links between deployment, innovation activities, and outcomes. We derive three main conclusions. (1) Demand-pull forces enhance patenting; econometric studies find positive impacts in industry, electricity and transport sectors in all but a few specific cases. This applies to all drivers - general energy prices, carbon prices, and targeted interventions that build markets. (2) Technology costs decline with cumulative investment for almost every technology studied across all time periods, when controlled for other factors. Numerous lines of evidence point to dominant causality from at-scale deployment (prior to self-sustaining diffusion) to cost reduction in this relationship. (3) Overall Innovation is cumulative, multi-faceted, and self-reinforcing in its direction (path-dependent). We conclude with brief observations on implications for modeling and policy. In interpreting these results, we suggest distinguishing the economics of active deployment, from more passive diffusion processes, and draw the following implications. There is a role for policy diversity and experimentation, with evaluation of potential gains from innovation in the broadest sense. Consequently, endogenising innovation in large-scale models is important for deriving policy-relevant conclusions. Finally, seeking to relate quantitative economic evaluation to the qualitative socio-technical transitions literatures could be a fruitful area for future research.
The EU aims to become the first climate neutral continent. To achieve this goal, the industry sector needs to reduce its GHG emissions to net zero or at least close to net zero. This is a particularly challenging task due to the high energy demand especially of primary materials production and the little potential to reduce this energy intensity when switching to other production processes based on electricity or hydrogen. In order to identify robust strategies for achieving a net-zero-compatible industry sector, the paper at hand analyses the transformation of the industry sector as described by a number of recent climate neutrality scenarios for Germany. Apart from overall industry, a focus is set on the sectors of steel, chemicals and cement. The analysed scenarios show very deep GHG emission reductions in industry and they appear to be techno-economically feasible by the mid of the century, without relying on offsets or on shifts from domestic production to imports. The scenarios agree on a suite of core strategies to achieve this, such as direct and indirect electrification, energy efficiency and recycling as well as new technological routes in steel making and cement. The scenarios differ, however, regarding the future mix of electricity, hydrogen and biomass and regarding the future relevance of domestic production of basic chemicals.
The Paris Agreement calls on all nations to pursue efforts to contribute to limiting the global temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, due to limited global, regional and country-specific analysis of highly ambitious GHG mitigation pathways, there is currently a lack of knowledge about the transformational changes needed in the coming decades to reach this target. Through a meta-analysis of mitigation scenarios for Germany, this article aims to contribute to an improved understanding of the changes needed in the energy system of an industrialized country. Differentiation among six key long-term energy system decarbonization strategies is suggested, and an analysis is presented of how these strategies will be pursued until 2050 in selected technologically detailed energy scenarios for Germany. The findings show, that certain strategies, including the widespread use of electricity-derived synthetic fuels in end-use sectors as well as behavioral changes, are typically applied to a greater extent in mitigation scenarios aiming at high GHG emission reductions compared to more moderate mitigation scenarios. The analysis also highlights that the pace of historical changes observed in Germany between 2000 and 2015 is clearly insufficient to adequately contribute to not only the 1.5 °C target, but also the 2 °C long-term global target.
This paper analyses and compares industry sector transformation strategies as envisioned in recent German, European and global deep decarbonisation scenarios.
The first part of the paper identifies and categorises ten key strategies for deep emission reductions in the industry sector. These ten key strategies are energy efficiency, direct electrification, use of climateneutral hydrogen and/or synthetic fuels, use of biomass, use of CCS, use of CCU, increases in material efficiency, circular economy, material substitution and end-use demand reductions. The second part of the paper presents a meta-analysis of selected scenarios, focusing on the question of which scenario relies to what extent on the respective mitigation strategies.
The key findings of the meta-analysis are discussed, with an emphasis on identifying those strategies that are commonly pursued in all or the vast majority of the scenarios and those strategies that are only pursued in a limited number of the scenarios. Possible reasons for differences in the choice of strategies are investigated.
The paper concludes by deriving key insights from the analysis, including identifying the main uncertainties that are still apparent with regard to the future steps necessary to achieve deep emission reductions in the industry sector and how future research can address these uncertainties.