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Die vom Wuppertal Institut für Fridays for Future durchgeführten Analysen legen nahe, dass das Erreichen von CO2-Neutralität bis 2035 aus technischer und ökonomischer Sicht zwar extrem anspruchsvoll wäre, grundsätzlich aber möglich ist. Diese Zielsetzung wäre in allen Sektoren mit großen Herausforderungen verbunden und würde beispiellose politische Anstrengungen erfordern.
Das Ziel der Klimaneutralität bis zum Jahr 2045 stellt nicht zuletzt den Industriesektor vor erhebliche Herausforderungen. Für diesen Sektor werden teilweise sehr unterschiedliche Entwicklungspfade in Richtung Klimaneutralität beschrieben, wie ein Blick in verschiedene aktuelle Szenariostudien zeigt. Dennoch gibt es auch im Industriesektor bestimmte Emissionsminderungsstrategien, die in allen vorliegenden Szenarien als unverzichtbar angesehen werden.
In der vorliegenden Studie steht die Forschungsfrage im Mittelpunkt, ob ein vollständig auf erneuerbaren Energien beruhendes Stromsystem mit hohen Importanteilen von rund 10 bis 20 % nach heutigem Stand des Wissens als technisch-ökologisch realisierbar angesehen werden kann. Als Grundlage für die Untersuchung wird in erster Linie auf eine Reihe von Szenariostudien zurückgegriffen, die ein weitgehend treibhausgasemissionsfreies, zu 90 bis 100 % auf regenerativer Erzeugung basierendes und von hohen Stromimportanteilen gekennzeichnetes Stromsystem mit dem Zeithorizont 2050 modellieren und beschreiben. Dabei werden analog zu Szenarien für Deutschland auch vorliegende Szenarien für Europa in den Blick genommen, die für den europäischen Kontinent wesentliche Nettostromimporte aus Nordafrika vorsehen.
Das Ziel der Klimaneutralität ist eine große Herausforderung, insbesondere für die Industrie. Dieser Artikel analysiert und vergleicht verschiedene Strategien zur Transformation des Industriesektors, wie sie in aktuellen deutschen, europäischen und globalen Klimaschutzszenarien beschrieben werden. Zunächst werden zehn Schlüsselstrategien für weitgehende Treibhausgasemissionsreduktionen im Industriesektor identifiziert. Anschließend wird in einer Szenario-Metaanalyse untersucht, in welchem Maße verschiedene Szenarien jeweils auf die einzelnen Strategien setzen. Dabei zeigt sich, dass es zwischen den Szenarien teilweise erhebliche Unterschiede bezüglich der verfolgten Strategien gibt.
Die sog. Klimapfadestudie und ihre Szenarien haben in der Öffentlichkeit ein breites Echo gefunden, nicht zuletzt weil der BDI damit erstmals eine eigene detaillierte Untersuchung der Machbarkeit der deutschen Klimaschutzziele vorlegt und offensiv in die Diskussionen um die langfristige Transformation des Energiesystems einsteigt. Während der BDI in der Mai-Ausgabe der "et" bereits wesentliche Ergebnisse vorgestellt hat, werden die Szenarien der Studie in diesem Artikel mit anderen vorliegenden Klimaschutzszenarien verglichen.
Contrary to "static" pathways that are defined once for all, this article deals with the need for policy makers to adopt a dynamic adaptive policy pathway for managing decarbonization over the period of implementation. When choosing a pathway as the most desirable option, it is important to keep in mind that each decarbonization option relies on the implementation of specific policies and instruments. Given structural, effectiveness, and timing uncertainties specific to each policy option, they may fail in delivering the expected outcomes in time. The possibility of diverging from an initial decarbonization trajectory to another one without incurring excessive costs should therefore be a strategic element in the design of an appropriate decarbonization strategy. The article relies on initial experiences in France and Germany on decarbonization planning and implementation to define elements for managing dynamic adjustment issues. Such an adaptive pathway strategy should combine long-lived incentives, like a pre-announced escalating carbon price, to form consistent expectations, as well as adaptive policies to improve overall robustness and resilience. We sketch key elements of a monitoring process based on an ex ante definition of leading indicators that should be assessed regularly and combined with signposts and trigger values at the subsector level.
Treibhausgasneutralität in Deutschland bis 2045 : ein Szenario aus dem Projekt SCI4climate.NRW
(2023)
Die klimapolitischen Ziele Deutschlands und der EU machen eine sehr schnelle und tiefgreifende Transformation sowohl der Energieversorgung als auch der energieverbrauchenden Sektoren notwendig. Diese Transformationsherausforderung betrifft nicht zuletzt die energieintensive Industrie in Deutschland, die vor grundlegenden technologischen Veränderungen wichtiger Produktionsprozesse steht. Die Herausforderungen für die Industrie werden durch die aktuelle Energiekrise weiter verschärft.
Vor diesem Hintergrund stellt das hier vorgestellte Klimaschutzszenario "SCI4climate.NRW-Klimaneutralität" (S4C-KN), das im Rahmen des vom Land NRW finanzierten Forschungsprojekts "SCI4climate.NRW" entwickelt wurde, die möglichen künftigen Entwicklungen in der energieintensiven Industrie in den Mittelpunkt der Analyse. Das Szenario analysiert diese Entwicklungen im Kontext eines gesamtwirtschaftlichen Transformationspfads hin zu einem klimaneutralen Deutschland im Jahr 2045.
Transformative Innovationen : die Suche nach den wichtigsten Hebeln der Großen Transformation
(2021)
Der hier vorliegende Zukunftsimpuls soll den Grundgedanken der Transformativen Innovationen und ihre Notwendigkeit beschreiben sowie erste Kandidaten für solche Transformativen Innovationen aus diversen Arbeitsbereichen des Wuppertal Instituts vorstellen. Er dient vor allem als Einladung, gemeinsam mit dem Wuppertal Institut über solche Innovationen zu diskutieren, die irgendwo zwischen den großen Utopien und kleinen Nischenaktivitäten liegen. Denn es braucht nicht immer den ganz großen Wurf, um Veränderungen in Gang zu setzen.
Decarbonisation of energy systems requires deep structural change. The purpose of this research was to analyse the rates of change taking place in the energy systems of the European Union (EU), in the light of the EU's climate change mitigation objectives. Trends on indicators such as energy intensity and carbon intensity of energy were compared with decadal benchmarks derived from deep decarbonisation scenarios for the electricity, residential, transport, and industry sectors. The methodology applied provides a useful and informative approach to tracking decarbonisation of energy systems. The results show that the EU has made significant progress in decarbonising its energy systems. On a number of indicators assessed the results show that a significant acceleration from historical levels is required in order to reach the rates of change seen on the future benchmarks for deep decarbonisation. The methodology applied provides an example of how the research community and international organisations could complement the transparency mechanism developed by the Paris Agreement on climate change, to improve understanding of progress toward low-carbon energy systems.
Various electricity generation technologies using different primary energy sources are available. Many published studies compare the costs of these technologies. However, most of those studies only consider plant-level costs and do not fully take into account additional costs that societies may face in using these technologies. This article reviews the literature on the costs of electricity generation technologies, aiming to determine which types of costs are relevant from a societal point of view when comparing generation technologies. The paper categorises the relevant types of costs, differentiating between plant-level, system and external costs as the main categories. It discusses the relevance of each type of cost for each generation technology. The findings suggest that several low-carbon electricity generation technologies exhibit lower social costs per kWh than the currently dominant technologies using fossil fuels. More generally, the findings emphasise the importance of taking not only plant-level costs, but also system and external costs, into account when comparing electricity generation technologies from a societal point of view. The article intends to inform both policymakers and energy system modellers, the latter who may strive to include all relevant types of costs in their models.
Germany and Japan have both gained substantial experience with hydrogen production and applications, albeit with focus on different sectors. They also share similar drivers for hydrogen development and, of course, similar technical and economic opportunities and challenges. However, there also are relevant differences in the policy priorities and approaches.
Notwithstanding differing emphases and patterns, the two countries share three main drivers for hydrogen development and deployment: climate mitigation and other environmental goals, energy supply diversification, and technological leadership. In this context, hydrogen has been identified by the German and the Japanese governments during the Energy Policy Dialogue as having potential for closer cooperation.
The authors of this study provide an overview of demand-side deployment by sector (residential, transport, industry, power generation and power-to-x) for both countries, as well as of their hydrogen policy debates, key institutions, R&D programs and demonstration projects. They also present a short survey on relevant international platforms and initiatives in which Japan and Germany participate.
On the basis of a meta-analysis of the role of hydrogen in 18 long-term energy system scenarios for Germany and 12 scenarios for Japan, this study draws conclusions on the possible role of hydrogen in the long term energy policy debates of both countries. Subsequently, the authors discuss sustainability criteria and certification schemes for clean hydrogen, compare the greenhouse gas intensity of different hydrogen supply chains and provide a data-based analysis to identify countries which could become important suppliers of clean hydrogen.
To combat climate change, it is anticipated that in the coming years countries around the world will adopt more stringent policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase the use of clean energy sources. These policies will also affect the industry sector, which means that industrial production is likely to progressively shift from CO2-emitting fossil fuel sources to renewable energy sources. As a result, a region's renewable energy resources could become an increasingly important factor in determining where energy-intensive industries locate their production. We refer to this pull factor as the "renewables pull" effect. Renewables pull could lead to the relocation of some industrial production as a consequence of regional differences in the marginal cost of renewable energy sources. In this paper, we introduce the concept of renewables pull and explain why its importance is likely to increase in the future. Using the examples of direct reduced iron (DRI) and ammonia production, we find that the future costs of climate-neutral production of certain products is likely to vary considerably between regions with different renewable energy resources. However, we also identify the fact that many other factors in addition to energy costs determine the decisions that companies make in term of location, leaving room for further research to better understand the future relevance of renewables pull.
International consensus is growing that a transition towards a low carbon society (LCS) is needed over the next 40 years. The G8, the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate, as well as the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, have concluded that states should prepare their own Low-emission Plans or Low-emission Development Plans and such plans are in development in an increasing number of countries.
An analysis of recent long-term low emission scenarios for Germany shows that all scenarios rely heavily on a massive scale up of energy efficiency improvements based on past trends. However, in spite of the high potential that scenario developers assign to this strategy, huge uncertainty still exists in respect of where the efficiency potentials really lie, how and if they can be achieved and how much their successful implementation depends on more fundamental changes towards a more sustainable society (e.g. behavioural changes).
In order to come to a better understanding of this issue we specifically examine the potential for energy efficiency in relation to particular demand sectors. Our comparative analysis shows that despite general agreement about the high importance of energy efficiency (EE), the perception on where and how to achieve it differ between the analysed scenarios. It also shows that the close nexus between energy efficiency and non-technical behavioural aspects is still little understood. This leads us to the conclusion that in order to support energy policy decisions more research should be done on energy efficiency potential. A better understanding of its potential would help energy efficiency to fulfil its role in the transition towards a LCS.
The experience curve theory assumes that technology costs decline as experience of a technology is gained through production and use. This article reviews the literature on the experience curve theory and its empirical evidence in the field of electricity generation technologies. Differences in the characteristics of experience curves found in the literature are systematically presented and the limitations of the experience curve theory, as well as its use in energy models, are discussed. The article finds that for some electricity generation technologies, especially small-scale modular technologies, there has been a remarkably strong (negative) relationship between experience and cost for several decades. Conversely, for other technologies, especially large-scale and highly complex technologies, the experience curve does not appear to be a useful tool for explaining cost changes over time. The literature review suggests that when analysing past cost developments and projecting future cost developments, researchers should be aware that factors other than experience may have significant influence. It may be worthwhile trying to incorporate some of these additional factors into energy system models, although considerable uncertainties remain in quantifying the relevance of some of these factors.
Several low-carbon energy roadmaps and scenarios have recently been published by the European Commission and the International Energy Agency (IEA) as well as by various stakeholders such as Eurelectric, ECF and Greenpeace. Discussions of these studies mainly focus on technology options available on the electricity supply side and mostly omit the significant challenges that all of the scenarios impose on the energy demand side.
A comparison of 5 decarbonisation scenarios from 4 of the most relevant recent scenario studies for the EU shows that all of them imply significant efficiency improvements in traditional appliances, usually well above levels historically observed over longer periods of time. At the same time they assume substantial electrification of transportation and heating. The scenarios suggest that both of these challenges need to be tackled successfully for decarbonising the energy system.
With shares of renewable electricity reaching at least 60 % of supply in 2050 in almost all of the decarbonisation scenarios, the adaptation of demand to variable supply becomes increasingly important. This aspect of demand side management should therefore be part of any policy mix aiming for a low-carbon power system.
Based on a quantitative analysis of 5 decarbonisation scenarios and a comparison with historical evidence we derive the (implicit) new challenges posed by the current low-carbon roadmaps and develop recommendations for energy policy on the electricity demand side.
The EU has set itself ambitious targets with regards to a significant reduction of its greenhouse gas emissions and has presented roadmaps depicting an overall decarbonisation of its economy by the middle of the century. In this context European policymakers and stakeholders are currently discussing the targets and the level of ambition of the 2030 climate and energy policy framework. The Commission is expected to present its own vision for the further development of the energy and climate policy framework in its White Paper "For a 2030 climate and energy policy framework". At this decisive point in the political debate the Wuppertal Institute presents a brief working paper that analyses some of the analytical work - particularly the underlying energy and GHG emission scenarios - behind the Commission's proposals to be presented in the forthcoming White Paper.
Einige Klimaneutralitätsszenarien für Deutschland nehmen an, dass zukünftig "unvermeidbares" CO2, z. B. aus der Zementproduktion, als Kohlenstoffquelle für die inländische Herstellung von Kraftstoffen oder chemischen Grundstoffen genutzt wird. In diesem Artikel wird dargelegt, warum eine solche CO2-Nutzung verglichen mit einem alternativen Pfad einer geologischen Speicherung des CO2 und einem gleichzeitigen Import "grüner" Kraft- und Grundstoffe zumindest aus energetischer Sicht nachteilig erscheint.
Wind energy that can neither be fed into the grid nor be used regionally must be curtailed. This paper proposes different options to deal with such surplus wind energy amounts in a time horizon until 2020. It assesses their ability to handle the surplus energy in a sustainable way using a multi criteria analysis. The paper bases on a study that was prepared for the Ministry for Climate Protection, Environment, Agriculture, Nature Conservation and Consumer Protection of North Rhine-Westphalia between 2010 and 2012.
In recent years, a number of energy scenario studies which aim to advise policy makers on appropriate energy policy measures have been developed. These studies highlight changes required to achieve a future energy system that is in line with public policy goals such as reduced greenhouse gas emissions and an affordable energy supply. We argue that behavioural changes towards energy-sufficient lifestyles have considerable potential to contribute to public policy goals and may even be indispensable for achieving some of these goals. This potential should, therefore, be reflected in scenario studies aiming to provide comprehensive advice to policy makers. We analyse the role that energy-sufficient lifestyles play in prominent recent global energy scenario studies and find that these studies largely ignore the potential of possible behavioural changes towards energy-sufficient lifestyles. We also describe how such changes have been considered in several other scenario studies, in order to derive recommendations for the future development of global energy scenarios. We conclude that the inclusion of lifestyle changes in energy scenarios is both possible and useful. Based on our findings, we present some general advice for energy scenario developers on how to better integrate sufficiency into future energy scenario studies in a quantitative manner.
Aufgrund der perspektivisch insbesondere mit dem benötigten weiteren Ausbau der erneuerbaren Energien verbundenen weiter zunehmenden Auswirkungen der Energiesystemtransformation auf Landschaft und Ökosysteme erscheint es angemessen, dass Politik und Gesellschaft die Naturverträglichkeit der Energiewende bzw. ihrer konkreten Ausgestaltung stärker in den Blick nehmen als bisher. Denn eine angemessene Berücksichtigung und darauf aufbauende weitest mögliche Minderung der negativen Einflüsse von Energiewende-Maßnahmen auf die Natur ist aus verschiedenen Gründen von Bedeutung: Zum einen ist die gesellschaftliche Akzeptanz für das Gelingen der Energiewende entscheidend und eine weitgehend naturverträgliche Ausgestaltung der Energiewende kann diese Akzeptanz befördern. Zum anderen sind intakte Ökosysteme für das menschliche Wohlergehen von hoher Bedeutung und es kann darüberhinaus argumentiert werden, dass ihnen unabhängig vom Wert für den Menschen auch ein intrinsischer Wert zugesprochen werden sollte. (Zusätzliche) Ökosystemstörungen sollten folglich so weit wie möglich vermieden werden.
Vor diesem Hintergrund hat der Naturschutzbund Deutschland e.V. das Wuppertal Institut beauftragt, in dem vorliegenden Bericht mögliche Maßnahmen zu identifizieren und zu beschreiben, die sowohl wesentliche Beiträge zur Erreichung der Ziele der Energiewende leisten können, deren Umsetzung gleichzeitig aber nach derzeitigem Wissensstand keine oder nur geringe negative Auswirkungen auf die Natur hätte. Der Bericht soll dabei helfen, die Aufmerksamkeit auf gegenwärtig nicht ausgeschöpfte, von der Energiepolitik und auch von vielen vorliegenden Energiewende-Studien nicht oder wenig beachtete aber wahrscheinlich naturschutzgerechtere Klimaschutzoptionen zu richten und diese Optionen besser zu verstehen.