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The basic materials industries are a cornerstone of Europe's economic prosperity, increasing gross value added and providing around 2 million high-quality jobs. But they are also a major source of greenhouse gas emissions. Despite efficiency improvements, emissions from these industries were mostly constant for several years prior to the Covid-19 crisis and today account for 20 per cent of the EU's total greenhouse gas emissions.
A central question is therefore: How can the basic material industries in the EU become climate-neutral by 2050 while maintaining a strong position in a highly competitive global market? And how can these industries help the EU reach the higher 2030 climate target - a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions of at least 55 per cent relative to 1990 levels?
In the EU policy debate on the European Green Deal, many suppose that the basic materials industries can do little to achieve deep cuts in emissions by 2030. Beyond improvements to the efficiency of existing technologies, they assume that no further innovations will be feasible within that period. This study takes a different view. It shows that a more ambitious approach involving the early implementation of key low-carbon technologies and a Clean Industry Package is not just possible, but in fact necessary to safeguard global competitiveness.
The Port of Rotterdam is an important industrial cluster, comprising mainly oil refining, chemical production and power generation. In 2016, the port's industry accounted for 19% of the Netherlands' total CO2 emissions. The Port of Rotterdam Authority is aware that the cluster is heavily exposed to future decarbonisation policies, as most of its activities focus on trading, handling, converting and using fossil fuels. Based on a study for the Port Authority using a mixture of qualitative and quantitative methods, our article explores three pathways whereby the port's industry can maintain its strong position while significantly reducing its CO2 emissions and related risks by 2050. The pathways differ in terms of the EU's assumed climate change mitigation ambitions and the key technological choices made by the cluster's companies. The focus of the paper is on identifying key risks associated with each scenario and ways in which these could be mitigated.
The Port of Rotterdam is an important industrial cluster mainly comprising of oil refining, chemical manufacturing and power and steam generation. In 2015, the area accounted for 18 % of the Netherlands' total CO2 emissions. The Port of Rotterdam Authority is aware that the port's economy is heavily exposed to future global and EU decarbonization policies, as the bulk of its activities focuses on trading, handling, converting and using fossil fuels. Based on a study for the Port Authority, our paper explores possible pathways of how the industrial cluster can keep its strong market position in Europe and still reduce its CO2 emissions by 98 % by 2050. The "Biomass and CCS" scenario assumes that large amounts of biomass can be supplied sustainably and will be used in the port for power generation as well as for feedstock for refineries and the chemical industry. Fischer-Tropsch fuel generation plays an important role in this scenario, allowing the port to become a key cluster for the production of synthetic fuels and feedstocks in Western Europe. The "Closed Carbon Cycle" scenario assumes that renewables-based electricity will be used at the port to supply heat and hydrogen for the synthetic generation of feedstock for the chemical industry. The carbon required for the chemicals will stem from recycled waste. Technologies particularly needed in this scenario are water electrolysis and gasification or pyrolysis to capture carbon from waste, as well as technologies for the production of base chemicals from syngas. The paper compares both scenarios with regard to their respective technological choices and infrastructural changes. The scenarios’ particular opportunities and challenges are also discussed. Using possible future pathways of a major European petrochemical cluster as an example, the paper illustrates options for deep decarbonisation of energy intensive industries in the EU and beyond.
Following the decisions of the Paris climate conference at the end of 2015 as well as similar announcements e.g. from the G7 in Elmau (Germany) in the summer of 2015, long-term strategies aiming at (almost) full decarbonisation of the energy systems increasingly move into the focus of climate and energy policy. Deep decarbonisation obviously requires a complete switch of energy supply towards zero GHG emission sources, such as renewable energy. A large number of both global as well as national climate change mitigation scenarios emphasize that energy efficiency will likewise play a key role in achieving deep decarbonization. However, the interdependencies between a transformation of energy supply on the one hand and the role of and prospects for energy efficiency on the other hand are rarely explored in detail.
This article explores these interdependencies based on a scenario for Germany that describes a future energy system relying entirely on renewable energy sources. Our analysis emphasizes that generally, considerable energy efficiency improvements on the demand side are required in order to have a realistic chance of transforming the German energy system towards 100 % renewables. Efficiency improvements are especially important if energy demand sectors will continue to require large amounts of liquid and gaseous fuels, as the production of these fuels are associated with considerable energy losses in a 100 % renewables future. Energy efficiency on the supply side will therefore differ considerably depending on how strongly the use of liquid and gaseous fuels in the various demand sectors can be substituted through the direct use of electricity. Apart from a general discussion of the role of energy efficiency in a 100 % renewable future, we also look at the role of and prospects for energy efficiency in each individual demand sector.
On behalf of the Port of Rotterdam Authority, the Wuppertal Institute developed three possible pathways for a decarbonised port of Rotterdam until 2050. The port area is home to about 80 per cent of the Netherlands' petrochemical industry and significant power plant capacities. Consequently, the port of Rotterdam has the potential of being an international leader for the global energy transition, playing an important role when it comes to reducing CO2 emissions in order to deliver on the EU's long-term climate goals.
The three decarbonisation scenarios all built on the increasing use of renewables (wind and solar power) and the adoption of the best available technologies (efficiency). The analysis focuses on power plants, refineries and the chemical industry, which together are responsible for more than 90 per cent of the port area's current CO2 emissions.
The decarbonisation scenarios describe how CO2 emissions could be reduced by 75 to 98 per cent in 2050 (compared to 2015). Depending on the scenario, different mitigation strategies are relied upon, including electrification, closure of carbon cycles or carbon capture and storage (CCS). The study includes recommendations for local companies, the Port Authority as well as policy makers. In addition, the study includes a reference scenario, which makes it clear that a "business as usual" mentality will fall well short of contributing adequately to the EU's long-term climate goals.
International consensus is growing that a transition towards a low carbon society (LCS) is needed over the next 40 years. The G8, the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate, as well as the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, have concluded that states should prepare their own Low-emission Plans or Low-emission Development Plans and such plans are in development in an increasing number of countries.
An analysis of recent long-term low emission scenarios for Germany shows that all scenarios rely heavily on a massive scale up of energy efficiency improvements based on past trends. However, in spite of the high potential that scenario developers assign to this strategy, huge uncertainty still exists in respect of where the efficiency potentials really lie, how and if they can be achieved and how much their successful implementation depends on more fundamental changes towards a more sustainable society (e.g. behavioural changes).
In order to come to a better understanding of this issue we specifically examine the potential for energy efficiency in relation to particular demand sectors. Our comparative analysis shows that despite general agreement about the high importance of energy efficiency (EE), the perception on where and how to achieve it differ between the analysed scenarios. It also shows that the close nexus between energy efficiency and non-technical behavioural aspects is still little understood. This leads us to the conclusion that in order to support energy policy decisions more research should be done on energy efficiency potential. A better understanding of its potential would help energy efficiency to fulfil its role in the transition towards a LCS.