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Treibhausgasneutralität in Deutschland bis 2045 : ein Szenario aus dem Projekt SCI4climate.NRW
(2023)
Die klimapolitischen Ziele Deutschlands und der EU machen eine sehr schnelle und tiefgreifende Transformation sowohl der Energieversorgung als auch der energieverbrauchenden Sektoren notwendig. Diese Transformationsherausforderung betrifft nicht zuletzt die energieintensive Industrie in Deutschland, die vor grundlegenden technologischen Veränderungen wichtiger Produktionsprozesse steht. Die Herausforderungen für die Industrie werden durch die aktuelle Energiekrise weiter verschärft.
Vor diesem Hintergrund stellt das hier vorgestellte Klimaschutzszenario "SCI4climate.NRW-Klimaneutralität" (S4C-KN), das im Rahmen des vom Land NRW finanzierten Forschungsprojekts "SCI4climate.NRW" entwickelt wurde, die möglichen künftigen Entwicklungen in der energieintensiven Industrie in den Mittelpunkt der Analyse. Das Szenario analysiert diese Entwicklungen im Kontext eines gesamtwirtschaftlichen Transformationspfads hin zu einem klimaneutralen Deutschland im Jahr 2045.
Mit Inkrafttreten des Kyoto-Protokolls am 16.2.2005 gelten für Deutschland und die meisten anderen Industrieländer völkerrechtlich bindende Minderungsziele für die 6 im Kyoto-Protokoll erfassten Treibhausgase. Damit erlangt eine durchaus kontrovers diskutierte Klimaschutzstrategie, die auf eine stärkere Umstellung der Energienutzung von Öl und Kohle auf mehr Erdgas setzt, zusätzlich an Bedeutung. Der nachfolgende Beitrag setzt sich mit der Klimabilanz des Erdgases unter Berücksichtigung der gesamten Prozesskette auseinander. Insbesondere werden neue Messergebnisse aus Russland dargestellt (Wuppertal Institut 2004), die zeigen, dass die dem Export von russischem Erdgas nach Deutschland zuzuordnenden indirekten Emissionen nur etwa ein Viertel der bei der Erdgasverbrennung entstehenden direkten Emissionen betragen. Damit bleibt Erdgas auch unter Berücksichtigung der indirekten Emissionen in Russland der fossile Energieträger mit den mit Abstand geringsten Treibhausgasemissionen.
Toothless tiger? : Is the EU action plan on energy efficiency sufficient to reach its target?
(2007)
Motivated by, inter alia, the increasing energy prices, the security of energy supply and climate change, the new EU "Action Plan for Energy Efficiency: Realising the Potential" (EEAP), sets out the policies and measures required to be implemented over the next six years to achieve the EU's goal of reducing annual primary energy consumption by about 20 % by 2020. By increasing energy efficiency, the security of energy supply and the reduction of carbon emissions are also improved.
The paper will analyse the 20 % target of the new EEAP for the energy demand side by comparison with different recent energy scenarios for the EU. It will therefore review the recommended policies and measures and examine, in which energy demand sectors energy efficiency may be increased and to which extend. The main focus is whether the recommended policies and actions will be sufficient and which additional measures may be useful, if additional measures are needed.
There's no decarbonisation without energy efficiency : but take care of the "rebound effects"
(2013)
This study intends to provide a comprehensive overview of the water-energy nexus' relevance to the Iranian electricity sector, by illustrating key trends, analysing water-related challenges and identifying knowledge gaps. It summarises the results of a workshop, and a series of dialogues with Iranian energy and water experts, in which both the current situation and future water-related risks and impacts on the Iranian power sector were discussed. Based on those results, it highlights research needs and further options for scientific collaboration.
Based on a comprehensive scenario analysis of the EU's GHG emissions by 2020, we show that the 20% energy savings target set in the Action Plan "Doing more with less" in 2006 is still the most significant and thus indispensable strategy element within an ambitious EU climate and energy strategy targeting at a 30% reduction of GHG emissions by 2020.
The scenario analysis provides a sector by sector projection of potential future energy use and GHG emissions, combined with a detailed policy analysis of the core policies on energy efficiency by the EU and its Member States taken from current research results by the authors and others.
Consequently the paper identifies and quantifies the current implementation deficit in the EU and shows that, despite of sufficient targets, implementation is still significantly lacking in almost all fields of energy efficiency. Some, e.g. transport sector and buildings, are still substantially far from receiving the necessary political impetus. The paper also demonstrates co-benefits of a strong energy efficiency strategy, e.g. the achievability of the targets of the RES directive, which crucially depends on a strong efficiency policy.
We conclude that the efforts of the energy efficiency policy of the EU and its Member States have to be significantly intensfied. As proposed by the EU in case that other developed and key developing countries take up comparable targets in order to fulfil its role in the climate and energy strategy. To achieve this, we offer an analysis of the current weaknesses of EU energy efficiency policy and derive recommendations on how the EU can still reach its targets for 2020.