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Simulation modeling is useful to understand the mechanisms of the diffusion of innovations, which can be used for forecasting the future of innovations. This study aims to make the identification of such mechanisms less costly in time and labor. We present an approach that automates the generation of diffusion models by: (1) preprocessing of empirical data on the diffusion of a specific innovation, taken out by the user; (2) testing variations of agent-based models for their capability of explaining the data; (3) assessing interventions for their potential to influence the spreading of the innovation. We present a working software implementation of this procedure and apply it to the diffusion of water-saving showerheads. The presented procedure successfully generated simulation models that explained diffusion data. This progresses agent-based modeling methodologically by enabling detailed modeling at relative simplicity for users. This widens the circle of persons that can use simulation to shape innovation.
One of the main objectives of impact assessments is to identify potentially significant impacts. However, determining this significance has received very limited attention as a procedural step in social impact assessments. Consequently, only limited research and documentation exists on approaches, survey tools and evaluation methods, especially with regard to participatory approaches and combined participatory-technical approaches. This study aims to address this research gap by developing and applying a joined participatory and technical impact significance evaluation. The approach is applied in a case study which analysed the livelihood impacts of the large-scale concentrated solar power plant NOORO I in Ouarzazate, Morocco.
The analysis shows that although different approaches and significance criteria must be applied when involving both local stakeholders and experts, the linked analysis offers more robust results and an improved basis for decision-making. Furthermore, it was observed in the case study that impacts affecting the social, cultural and political spheres were more often considered significant than impacts affecting the physical and material livelihood dimensions. Regarding sustainability assessments of large-scale renewable energy plants, these findings underline the importance (as for other large-scale infrastructure developments) of placing greater emphasis on the inclusion of social aspects in impact assessments.
Replacing traditional technologies by renewables can lead to an increase of emissions during early diffusion stages if the emissions avoided during the use phase are exceeded by those associated with the deployment of new units. Based on historical developments and on counterfactual scenarios in which we assume that selected renewable technologies did not diffuse, we conclude that onshore and offshore wind energy have had a positive contribution to climate change mitigation since the beginning of their diffusion in EU27. In contrast, photovoltaic panels did not pay off from an environmental standpoint until very recently, since the benefits expected at the individual plant level were offset until 2013 by the CO2 emissions related to the construction and deployment of the next generation of panels. Considering the varied energy mixes and penetration rates of renewable energies in different areas, several countries can experience similar time gaps between the installation of the first renewable power plants and the moment in which the emissions from their infrastructure are offset.
The analysis demonstrates that the time-profile of renewable energy emissions can be relevant for target-setting and detailed policy design, particularly when renewable energy strategies are pursued in concert with carbon pricing through cap-and-trade systems.
Eine besondere Herausforderung für die Wärmewende stellen leitungsgebundene Wärmeversorgungsstrukturen dar. Aufgrund ihrer hohen Kapitalbindung bei gleichzeitig hoher Lebensdauer müssen hier frühzeitig die richtigen Weichen in Richtung Energiewende gestellt werden. Eine Vielzahl von Akteuren, Stadtwerken und Energieversorgern, über Planer und Handwerker bis hin zur Immobilienwirtschaft stehen vor der Schwierigkeit, einen langfristig kompatiblen Pfad in Richtung Klimaschutz und Energiewende einzuleiten. Vor diesem Hintergrund sollen in diesem Artikel aus technologischer Sicht Optionen aus dem Themenfeld "LowEx und gekoppelte Wärmeversorgungsstrukturen" näher betrachtet werden.
In order to analyse the mid- and long-term impacts of energy related policies, different modelling approaches can be derived. However, the results of even the best energy system model will highly depend on the underlying input data. First, in this contribution the importance and availability issues of grid data in the context of energy system modelling are highlighted. Second, this paper focuses on power grid modelling based on open and publicly available data from OpenStreetMap using open source software tools. Two recent approaches developed to build electrical transmission network models using openly available data sources are presented and discussed. The proposed methods provide transparent assumptions, simplifications and documentation of grid modelling. This results in the ability of scientists and other stakeholders to validate, discuss or reproduce the results of energy system models. Thus the new open approaches offer a unique opportunity to increase transparency, comparability and reproducibility of results in energy system modelling.
Partizipative Irritationen : Reflexionen zum nachhaltigkeitsbezogenen Partizipationsgeschehen
(2017)
Die Beteiligungslandschaft wird im Kontext nachhaltiger Entwicklung und in der Perspektive der Politischen Psychologie betrachtet. Ausgangspunkt sind Wechselwirkungen zwischen politisch vermittelter und in Verbindung mit Nachhaltigkeit besonders geforderter Partizipationsnotwendigkeit einerseits und individuell empfundenem Vertrauensverlust in die Fähigkeit der Politik zur Lösung von Umweltproblemen andererseits. Betrachtet werden Partizipationsmotive der Politik (z.B. Steigerung von Legitimität) und Partizipationsmotive von Bürgerinnen und Bürgern (z.B. die "echte" Chance auf Mitentscheidung, insbesondere bei Verfahren mit starkem Regionalbezug). Beide Motive sind eingebettet in eine weitgehend entscheidungsferne "Partizipationsarchitektur". Die Verfahren liegen überwiegend auf einer informativen und auf einer konsultativen Ebene. Auch zeigen sich Diskrepanzen auf der Ebene der politischen Aufforderungen zur Partizipation. Diese erfolgen eher, wenn es um Problemlösungen geht und eher nicht, wenn es um Investitionen und wirtschaftliche Gewinne geht. Intensiv werden partizipative Ansätze im Kontext von Klimaschutz und Energiewende verfolgt. Doch auch diese Partizipationsangebote gehen selten über die informative Ebene hinaus. Inhaltlich sind v.a. technische Lösungsansätze zur Reduktion der CO2-Emissionen fixiert worden, hingegen wurden politische wie soziale Lösungsansätze überwiegend ausgespart. Insgesamt besteht die Gefahr partizipativer Irritationen bis hin zu Erschöpfung, wenn Bürgerinnen und Bürger einerseits zur Beteiligung aufgefordert und aktiviert werden, andererseits aber erfahren, dass sie im politischen Geschehen wenig bewirken können.
"Energiewende", which roughly translates as the transformation of the German energy sector in accordance with the imperatives of climate change, may soon become a byword for the corresponding processes most other developed countries are at various stages of undergoing. Germany's notable progress in this area offers valuable insights that other states can draw on in implementing their own transitions. The German state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) is making its own contribution to achieving the Energiewende's ambitious objectives: in addition to funding an array of "clean and green" projects, the Virtual Institute Power to Gas and Heat was established as a consortium of seven scientific and technical organizations whose aim is to inscribe a future, renewable-based German energy system with adequate flexibility. Thus, it is tasked with conceiving of and evaluating suitable energy path options. This paper outlines one of the most promising of these pathways, which is predicated on the use of electrolytically-produced hydrogen as an energy storage medium, as well as the replacement of hydrocarbon-based fuel for most road vehicles. We describe and evaluate this path and place it in a systemic context, outlining a case study from which other countries and federated jurisdictions therein may draw inspiration.
Feedback devices can be used to inform households about their energy-consumption behavior. This may persuade them to practice energy conservation. The use of feedback devices can also - via word of mouth - spread among households and thereby support the spread of the incentivized behavior, e.g. energy-efficient heating behavior. This study investigates how to manage the impact of these environmental innovations via marketing. Marketing activities can support the diffusion of devices. This study aims to identify the most effective strategies of marketing feedback devices. We did this by adapting an agent-based model to simulate the roll-out of a novel feedback technology and heating behavior within households in a virtual city. The most promising marketing strategies were simulated and their impacts were analyzed. We found it particularly effective to lend out feedback devices to consumers, followed by leveraging the social influence of well-connected individuals, and giving away the first few feedback devices for free. Making households aware of the possibility of purchasing feedback devices was found to be least effective. However, making households aware proved to be most cost-efficient. This study shows that actively managing the roll-out of feedback devices can increase their impacts on energy-conservation both effectively and cost-efficiently.
We present an approach to simulate climate and energy policy for the EU, using a flexible and modular agent-based modelling approach and a toolbox, called the Energy Modelling Laboratory (EMLab). The paper shortly reviews core challenges and approaches for modelling climate and energy policy in light of the energy transition. Afterwards, we present an agent-based model of investment in power generation that has addressed a variety of European energy policy questions. We describe the development of a flexible model core as well as modules on carbon and renewables policies, capacity mechanisms, investment behaviour and representation of intermittent renewables. We present an overview of modelling results, ongoing projects, a case study on current reforms of the EU ETS, and we show their relevance in the EU context.