Zukünftige Energie- und Industriesysteme
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Technical summary
(2015)
Die Transformation des deutschen Energiesystems in Richtung signifikanter Reduktion energiebedingter CO2-Emissionen kann durch eine Abfolge verschiedener Phasen beschrieben werden. Phasenübergänge ergeben sich dabei aus strukturellen Erfordernissen im Gesamtsystem bei kontinuierlichem weiteren Ausbau erneuerbarer Energiewandler, insbesondere Sonne und Wind. Die anstehende zweite Phase ist durch eine umfassende Systemintegration volatiler erneuerbarer Energien insbesondere im Bereich der Strombereitstellung geprägt. Dies erfordert sowohl eine flexible komplementäre Erzeugung als auch die Aktivierung von Flexibilitätsoptionen auf der Verbrauchsseite.
Lessons for model use in transition research : a survey and comparison with other research areas
(2015)
The use of models to study the dynamics of transitions is challenging because of several aspects of transitions, notably complexity, multi-domain and multi-level interactions. These challenges are shared by other research areas that extensively make use of models. In this article we survey experiences and methodological approaches developed in the research areas of social-ecological modeling, integrated assessment, and environmental modeling, and derive lessons to be learnt for model use in transition studies. In order to account for specific challenges associated with different kinds of model applications we classify models according to their uses: for understanding transitions, for providing case-specific policy advice, and for facilitating stakeholder processes. The assessment reveals promising research directions for transition modeling, such as model-to-model analysis, pattern-oriented modeling, advanced sensitivity analysis, development of a shared conceptual framework, and use of modeling protocols.
Urbanization and climate change are amongst the greatest challenges of the 21st century. In the "Low Carbon Future Cities" project (LCFC), three important problem dimensions are analysed: current and future GHG emissions and their mitigation (up to 2050); resource use and material flows; and vulnerability to climate change.
The industrial city of Wuxi has been the Chinese pilot city of the project. To establish the pathway for a low carbon future, it is crucial to understand the current situation and possible future developments. The paper presents the key results of the status quo analysis and the future scenario analysis carried out for Wuxi. Two scenarios are outlined. The Current Policy Scenario (CPS) shows the current most likely development in the area of energy demand and GHG emissions until 2050. Whereas the extra low carbon scenario (ELCS) assumes a significantly more ambitious implementation, it combines a market introduction of best available technologies with substantial behavioural change. All scenarios are composed of sub-scenarios for the selected key sectors.
Looking at the per capita emissions in Wuxi, the current levels are already high at around 12 tonnes CO2 per capita compared to Western European cities. Although Wuxi has developed a low carbon plan, the projected results under current policies (CPS) show that the total emissions would increase to 23.6 tonnes CO2 per capita by 2050. If the ELCS pathway was to be adopted, these CO2 emission levels could be reduced to 6.4 tonnes per capita by 2050.
Die Technologie der CO2-Abtrennung und -Speicherung (CCS) sowie die CO2-Nutzung (CCR) wird in diesem Fachbuch umfassend und aus unterschiedlicher Perspektive beleuchtet.
Experten aus Forschung und Industrie stellen die CCS- und CCR-Technologie auf Basis der naturwissenschaftlichen und technischen Grundlagen vor und legen den Stand der Technik dar. Sie vergleichen Energiebilanzen für verschiedene Techniken und diskutieren rechtliche, wirtschaftliche und gesellschaftspolitische Aspekte. In Szenarioanalysen zeigen sie den möglichen zukünftigen Beitrag der Technologien auf und stellen die Sichtweisen der verschiedenen Stakeholder-Gruppen vor.
Die Autoren haben den Anspruch, wertfrei zu informieren. Dabei legen sie die Kriterien für die Bewertung der einzelnen Sichtweisen offen.