Zukünftige Energie- und Industriesysteme
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Both focus group discussions and information-choice questionnaires (ICQs) have previously been used to examine informed public opinions about carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS). This paper presents an extensive experimental study to systematically examine and compare the quality of opinions created by these two research techniques. Depending on experimental condition, participants either participated in a focus group meeting or completed an ICQ. In both conditions participants received identical factual information about two specific CCS options. After having processed the information, they indicated their overall opinion about each CCS option. The quality of these opinions was determined by looking at three outcome-oriented indicators of opinion quality: consistency, stability, and confidence. Results for all three indicators showed that ICQs yielded higher-quality opinions than focus groups, but also that focus groups did not perform poor in this regard. Implications for the choice between focus group discussions and ICQs are discussed.
Conventional new buildings in OECD countries with a history of building codes save about 50 % of energy compared to average buildings in the building stock. This improvement, however, is not enough to create a building standard with low lifetime costs nor to reach long-term climate protection targets. Much higher energy savings can already be achieved through proven high-efficiency building concepts bringing net economic benefits among other advantages.
A strategic approach to integrated building design is the key to achieving these high-energy savings at low or no extra cost in residential buildings. In our paper we describe the "Easy Efficiency Approach", which can reduce primary energy consumption by 40 to 60 % compared to conventional new building standards, or by 70% to 80% when compared to the primary energy consumption of the existing building stock, and should be regarded as the minimum. This strategy focuses on low-cost options, mainly passive options. Although it can already significantly reduce energy consumption, this first step will not be sufficient to reach long-term climate protection goals. It is thus necessary to implement and support what we call an "Advanced Efficiency Approach", with savings up to 90% , as compared to new building standards, as soon as possible to avoid lock-in effects. Further improvements, especially through the active use of renewable energies, reduce the net primary energy demand to 0 % and beyond.
According to the chosen strategy clearly defined energy performance ranges, with reference to possible savings, for different climate zones worldwide are given. In verifying this approach simulations with BAT (Best Available Technologies) buildings of different types (single family, multi family, high rise) were carried out in close cooperation with project partners. This data has also been verified through an empirical database of built examples both for energy consumption as well their economic soundness.
Soll der Staat oder der Markt der Hauptakteur im Prozess einer "Großen Transformation" der Gesellschaft sein? Und: Welcher Staat und welcher Markt? Deutlich wird, dass eine Transformation Richtung Nachhaltigkeit nicht gelingen kann, wenn alte Rationalitäts muster - wie die vom starken Staat und vom selbstregulieren den Markt - fortbestehen. Dagegen muss ein demokratischer Prozess stehen, der auf den Fähigkeiten der Bürger(innen) basiert und der emanzipatorische und herrschafts kritische Bewegungen stärkt.
Only three days after the beginning of the nuclear catastrophe in Fukushima, Japan, on 11 March 2011, the German government ordered 8 of the country's 17 existing nuclear power plants (NPPs) to stop operating within a few days. In summer 2011 the government put forward a law - passed in parliament by a large majority - that calls for a complete nuclear phase-out by the end of 2022. These government actions were in contrast to its initial plans, laid out in fall 2010, to expand the lifetimes of the country's NPPs.
The immediate closure of 8 NPPs and the plans for a complete nuclear phase-out within little more than a decade, raised concerns about Germany's ability to secure a stable supply of electricity. Some observers feared power supply shortages, increasing CO2-emissions and a need for Germany to become a net importer of electricity.
Now - a little more than a year after the phase-out law entered into force - this paper examines these concerns using (a) recent statistical data on electricity production and demand in the first 15 months after the German government's immediate reaction to the Fukushima accident and (b) reviews the most recent projections and scenarios by different stakeholders on how the German electricity system may develop until 2025, when NPPs will no longer be in operation.
The paper finds that Germany has a realistic chance of fully replacing nuclear power with additional renewable electricity generation on an annual basis by 2025 or earlier, provided that several related challenges, e.g. expansion of the grids and provision of balancing power, can be solved successfully. Already in 2012 additional electricity generation from renewable energy sources in combination with a reduced domestic demand for electricity will likely fully compensate for the reduced power generation from the NPPs shut down in March 2011.
If current political targets will be realised, Germany neither has to become a net electricity importer, nor will be unable to gradually reduce fossil fuel generated electricity. Whether the reduction in fossil fuel use will be sufficient to adequately contribute to national greenhouse gas mitigation targets significantly depends on an active policy to promote electricity savings, continuous efforts to increase the use of renewables and a higher share of natural gas (preferably used in combined heat and power plants) in fossil fuel power generation.
The 2011 Japanese earthquake and tsunami, and the consequent accident at the Fukushima nuclear power plant, have had consequences far beyond Japan itself. Reactions to the accident in three major economies Japan, the UK, and Germany, all of whom were committed to relatively ambitious climate change targets prior to the accident are examined. In Japan and Germany, the accident precipitated a major change of policy direction. In the UK, debate has been muted and there has been essentially no change in energy or climate change policies. The status of the energy and climate change policies in each country prior to the accident is assessed, the responses to the accident are described, and the possible impacts on their positions in the international climate negotiations are analysed. Finally, the three countries' responses are compared and some differences between them observed. Some reasons for their different policy responses are suggested and some themes, common across all countries, are identified. Policy relevance: The attraction of nuclear power has rested on the promise of low-cost electricity, low-carbon energy supply, and enhanced energy independence. The Fukushima accident, which followed the Japanese tsunami of March 2011, has prompted a critical re-appraisal of nuclear power. The responses to Fukushima are assessed for the UK, Germany, and Japan. Before the accident, all three countries considered nuclear as playing a significant part in climate mitigation strategies. Although the UK Government has continued to support nuclear new build following a prompt review of safety arrangements, Japan and Germany have decided to phase out nuclear power, albeit according to different timescales. The factors that explain the different decisions are examined, including patterns of energy demand and supply, the wider political context, institutional arrangements, and public attitudes to risk. The implications for the international climate negotiations are also assessed.
Das Verfahren der Öffentlichkeitsbeteiligung in der Stromnetz-Ausbauplanung : eine erste Bewertung
(2013)
Der Ausbau der Netze stellt nicht nur technisch, sondern auch politisch und rechtlich eine Herausforderung dar. Einigermaßen Einigkeit besteht wohl darüber, dass das Stromnetz im Zuge der Energiewende um- und ausgebaut werden muss. Darüber hinaus herrschen jedoch beträchtliche Differenzen zwischen der Öffentlichkeit sowie den Übertragungsnetzbetreibern und der Bundesnetzagentur in der Frage, welches Maß an Ausbau notwendig ist. Dies sollte sich im Prozess der Aufstellung des Bundesbedarfsplans Stromnetze in einem sauberen Kompromiss lösen lassen. Eine Analyse des ersten Erstellungsprozesses legt jedoch verschiedene Fehlentwicklungen offen, die rasch angepackt werden sollten.
Germany's current efforts to decarbonize its electricity system are analysed. As nuclear power and fossil power plants equipped with carbon capture and storage were ruled out in 2011, renewable electricity generation (RES) together with electricity savings are the primary focus for achieving decarbonization. Germany aims to have RES account for at least 80% of its electricity by 2050. Achieving renewable generation needs strong political support and regulatory provisions for its market integration. Four main technical and regulatory challenges are the maintenance of a steady and efficient expansion of RES, the provision of balancing capacities, the realization of the targeted electricity savings, and the smart adaptation of the transport and distribution grid. An overview of the existing and planned regulatory provisions for decarbonization are described, and some gaps identified, particularly with regard to the overall management of the process, the inclusion of electricity savings and the interference of Germany's decarbonization strategies with neighbouring countries. Policies that both accelerate grid expansion and direct RES expansion should immediately be put in place and can be supported by a targeted mobilization of balancing capacities. Electricity savings are a significant and cost-efficient strategy for low-carbon electricity. Policy relevance: Germany is actively converting its national electricity system towards a fully renewable one. As renewable electricity has reached about a quarter of total consumption, a number of technical and regulatory challenges arise. Current discussions and plans are described for the four main challenges: maintaining and optimizing high investment rates into RES generation technologies, providing balancing capacities, reducing demand, and adapting the grid to the changing needs. Policy recommendations for these four tasks highlight the need to intensify electricity demand reduction and also consider the potential interactions between the German electricity system and its neighbouring countries.
In diesem Artikel wird die Energiewende aus wachstumskritischer Sicht diskutiert. Der gegenwärtige Versuch, eine nachhaltige Energieversorgung vorrangig mit technischen Lösungen zu ermöglichen, die das wirtschaftspolitische Wachstumsparadigma und die damit verbundenen, auf materielle Wohlstandssteigerung ausgerichteten Lebensstile und Konsummuster unangetatset lassen, ist - so die zentrale These - zum Scheitern verurteilt. Eine Entkoppelung von Wirtschaftswachstum und Ressourcenverbrauch, die das Ziel der deutschen Energie- und Nachhaltigkeitspolitik ist, entpuppt sich als Schimäre, da Verlagerungseffekte der technisch orientierten Effizienz- und Konsistenzstrategie dieselben schwächen. Energie-Suffizienz, also der genügsame Minderverbrauch von Energie, erscheint daher eine notwendige Ergänzung für eine erfolgreiche Energiewende, wenn die mit Effizienzsteigerungen und mit dem Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien angestrebten Nachhaltigkeitsziele nicht konterkariert werden sollen. Für eine solche "Suffizienzrevolution" werden drei Ansatzpunkte skizziert: ein Bewusstseinswandel auf individueller Ebene, Suffizienzpolitik als staatliche Steuerungsmaßnahme und konviviale Technologien als materielle Ermöglichungsstruktur für suffiziente Lebensstile.