Zukünftige Energie- und Industriesysteme
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Securing universal access to electricity by using renewable energy sources is technically feasible. A broad range of technological options, which can meet almost any requirements, are available. Solutions can comprise the connection of users to large distribution networks (on-grid solutions) or the application of power supply systems that can operate autonomously (off-grid and mini-grid solutions). This brochure concentrates on the latter solutions; technologies for large-scale distribution are not covered.
Increasing urbanisation and climate change belong to the greatest challenges of the 21st century. A high share of global greenhouse gas emissions are estimated to originate in urban areas (40 % to 78 % according to UN Habitat 2010). Therefore, low carbon city strategies and concepts implicate large greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potentials. At the same time, with high population and infrastructure densities as well as concentrated economic activities, cities are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and need to adapt. Scarce natural resources further constrain the leeway for long-term, sustainable urban development. The Low Carbon Future Cities (LCFC) project aims at tapping this three-dimensional challenge and will develop an integrated strategy / roadmap, balancing low carbon development, gains in resource efficiency and adaptation to climate change. The study focuses on two pilot regions - one in China (Wuxi) and one in Germany (Düsseldorf+) - and is conducted by a German-Chinese research team supported by the German Stiftung Mercator. The paper gives an overview of first outcomes of the analysis of the status quo and assessment of the most likely developments regarding GHG emissions, climate impacts and resource use in Wuxi. The project developed an emission inventory for Wuxi to identify key sectors for further analysis and low carbon scenarios. The future development of energy demand and related CO2 emissions in 2030 were simulated in the current policy scenario (CPS), using five different sub-models. Selected aspects of Wuxi's current material and water flows were analysed and modelled for energy transformation and the building sector. Current and future climate impacts and vulnerability were investigated. Recent climatic changes and resulting damages were analysed, expected changes in temperature and precipitation in the coming four decades were projected using ensembles of three General Circulation Models. Although Wuxi's government started a path to implement a low carbon plan, the first results show that more ambitious efforts are needed to overcome the challenges faced.
The Low Carbon Future Cities (LCFC) project aims at facing a three dimensional challenge by developing an integrated city roadmap balancing: low carbon development, gains in resource efficiency and adaptation to climate change. The paper gives an overview of the first outcomes of the analysis of the status quo and assessment of the most likely developments regarding GHG emissions, climate impacts and resource use in Wuxi - the Chinese pilot city for the LCFC project. As a first step, a detailed emission inventory following the IPCC guidelines for Wuxi has been carried out. In a second step, the future development of energy demand and related CO2 emissions in 2050 were simulated in a current policy scenario (CPS). In parallel, selected aspects of material and water flows for the energy and the building sector were analyzed and modeled. In addition, recent and future climate impacts and vulnerability were investigated. Based on these findings, nine key sectors with high relevance to the three dimensions could be identified. Although Wuxi's government has started a path to implement a low carbon plan, the first results show that, for the shift towards a sustainable low carbon development, more ambitious steps need to be taken in order to overcome the challenges faced.
Urbanization and climate change are amongst the greatest challenges of the 21st century. In the "Low Carbon Future Cities" project (LCFC), three important problem dimensions are analysed: current and future GHG emissions and their mitigation (up to 2050); resource use and material flows; and vulnerability to climate change.
The industrial city of Wuxi has been the Chinese pilot city of the project. To establish the pathway for a low carbon future, it is crucial to understand the current situation and possible future developments. The paper presents the key results of the status quo analysis and the future scenario analysis carried out for Wuxi. Two scenarios are outlined. The Current Policy Scenario (CPS) shows the current most likely development in the area of energy demand and GHG emissions until 2050. Whereas the extra low carbon scenario (ELCS) assumes a significantly more ambitious implementation, it combines a market introduction of best available technologies with substantial behavioural change. All scenarios are composed of sub-scenarios for the selected key sectors.
Looking at the per capita emissions in Wuxi, the current levels are already high at around 12 tonnes CO2 per capita compared to Western European cities. Although Wuxi has developed a low carbon plan, the projected results under current policies (CPS) show that the total emissions would increase to 23.6 tonnes CO2 per capita by 2050. If the ELCS pathway was to be adopted, these CO2 emission levels could be reduced to 6.4 tonnes per capita by 2050.
Energy intensive industries are one of the fields in which strong increases of energy efficiency and deep decarbonisation strategies are particularly challenging. Although European energy intensive industries have already achieved significant energy and greenhouse gas reductions in the past, much remains to be done to make a significant contribution to achieving European as well as national climate mitigation targets of greenhouse gas emission reductions by -80% or more (compared to the baseline of 1990). North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) is a European hotspot for coping with this challenge, accommodating more than 10% of the energy intensive industries of the EU28. It is also the first German state to have adopted its own Climate Law, enacting state-wide CO2 emission reductions by 80% until 2050 compared to 1990. The state government initiated the project "Platform Climate Protection and Industry North-Rhine Westphalia" to identify and develop the necessary far-reaching low carbon innovation strategies for energy intensive industries. Heart of the project was a dialogue process, which involved a broad spectrum of stakeholders from steel, chemical, aluminium, cement, glass and paper producing industries. Besides enhancing and broadening the knowledge on high efficiency and low-carbon technologies within industries, the aim was to explore possible pathways and preconditions for the application of these technologies in energy intensive industries as well as to strengthen the motivation of companies for initiatives and investments in technologies with lower CO2 emissions. The results of the dialogue shall provide a basis for a possible low-carbon industry roadmap NRW and may also serve as an example for other industrialized regions in the EU and globally. The paper sketches the structured dialogue process with the stakeholders from companies as well as industrial associations and presents the learnings regarding the engagement of energy intensive industries into ambitious climate policies on a regional level. These include existing limitations as well as chances in the respective sectors on the state level, regarding their economic and technical structures as well as their innovation systems. The findings are based on more than a dozen stakeholder workshops with industry companies and more than 150 individual representatives of NRW's energy intensive industries as well as on background research in the initial phase of the project.
Welchen Effekt haben engagierte Klimaschutzmaßnahmen der Politik auf NRW's Schlüsselbranchen, wie Automotive, chemische Industrie, Finanzwirtschaft oder Energiewirtschaft? Eine Kurzstudie des Wuppertal Instituts untersucht, welche Chancen und Risiken aus dieser Praxis entstehen können. Außerdem werden Arbeitsplatz- und Wertschöpfungseffekte auch mit Blick auf entstehende Zukunftsmärkte analysiert.
The Ernst Strüngmann Forum seeks to link justice, sustainability, and diversity agendas. In support, this chapter discusses how linkages between these three concepts have formed and changed in the climate change discourse, particularly in light of the recent Paris Agreement. As the latest addition to the portfolio of international climate change agreements, the Paris Agreement establishes a landscape in which nation-states, subnational actors, and transnational networks will be able to reconfigure existing linkages between sustainability, diversity, and justice, and perhaps improve upon them.
Here, three possible developments are identified which may substantially influence the reconfiguration process. Recognition is given to the sustainability and justice deficits that have plagued the "top-down" character of the international climate change discourse, and it is hypothesized that the Paris Agreement opens the door for "bottom-up" movements to claim a larger segment of climate change policy decision making and design. In turn, the "polycentric" landscape created by such "movement from below" appears to emphasize concepts such as inclusivity and transparency perhaps allowing for explicit climate justice commitments. Finally, to advance societal transformation and embrace diversity, it is hypothesized that the scientific endeavor needs to be transformed from a purely analytical pursuit to an effort that makes use of the wide range of scientific competences and provides support for transformative innovations to change unsustainable sociotechnical systems.
Die Energiewende ist der Umstieg der Energieproduktion, -versorgung und -nutzung von nuklearen und fossilen Energieträgern auf erneuerbare Energien. Dieser tiefgreifende Wandel des über viele Jahre gewachsenen Energiesystems in Deutschland umfasst zahlreiche, hoch komplexe Aspekte und Prozesse. Aus einer eher technologischen Perspektive heraus betrachtet sind die Ziele der Energiewende eine Weiterentwicklung und Dezentralisierung des technischen Stromsystems und seiner Komponenten (Speicher, Netze, Management), die Steigerung der Energieeffizienz (bspw. in industriellen Prozessen sowie in Haushalten, durch energetische Modernisierung des Gebäudebestandes oder eine intelligentere Nutzung der Wärme) sowie die Elektrifizierung des Verkehrs.
In dem vorliegenden Kapitel werden die verschiedenen Herausforderungen zur Umsetzung der Energiewende genauer beleuchtet und dargestellt und schließlich in zentrale Schlussfolgerungen zur Realisierung der Energiewende überführt.
Urban areas, being responsible for large shares of global greenhouse gas emissions, are important arenas for achieving global decarbonisation. However, the systemic challenge of decarbonisation requires deep structural changes - transitions - that take place across multiple scales and along entire value chains. We argue in this article that understanding the role of urban areas for global decarbonisation therefore requires consideration of their context and analysis of urban areas' contributions to transitions that extend past the individual urban area. We develop an analytical framework that proposes three principal ways urban areas contribute to low-carbon transitions and ten competences that regional and local governance actors have to support them. We apply this framework to the Cologne metropolitan area in Germany to demonstrate the ability of our framework to relate urban-scale activities to more encompassing low-carbon transitions. The paper concludes with future research possibilities.
Bis vor wenigen Jahren diskutierten vor allem Energieversorger
und Umweltverbände über die Abscheidung und Lagerung von CO2. Mittlerweile ist die öffentliche Wahrnehmung von CCS gestiegen. Dabei dürfte die umstrittene Technologie für Deutschlands Kraftwerke weit weniger bedeutsam sein als für energiehungrige Schwellenländer.
Im Zuge der Energiewende steht die Industrie in NRW vor der substantiellen Herausforderung großer infrastruktureller Veränderungen. Dies bezieht sich auf den Energiebedarf, die Treibhausgasemissionen und den allgemeinen Ressourcenbedarf.
Hierzu ist ein Zusammenspiel der industriellen mit den öffentlichen Akteuren vonnöten. Dies umfasst neben politischer Unterstützung und dem Nutzen von Marktmechanismen ist auch Regulierung, um diese Transformation zu unterstützen und voranzubringen. Die Steuerbarkeit solcher Prozesse hängt jedoch auch stark davon ab, in welchem Umfang die entlang der oftmals komplexen Wertschöpfungsketten ablaufenden industriellen Prozesse innerhalb NRWs angesiedelt sind. Hierzu muss neben dem technischen und wirtschaftlichen Möglichkeiten einer solchen Veränderung der Grad der Geschlossenheit der entsprechenden Wertschöpfungsketten betrachtet werden.
Hierzu werden hier exemplarisch drei Wertschöpfungsketten betrachtet: Eisen- und Stahlproduktion, Chemie mit dem Fokus auf polymere Faserverbundwerkstoffe, und der Anlagenbau für die erneuerbare Energiewirtschaft. Diese wurden so ausgewählt, dass sie sowohl eine große strategische, wirtschaftliche bzw. seitens des Energiebedarfs und der Treibhausgasemissionen quantitative Relevanz für die Energiewende speziell in NRW haben, als auch unterschiedliche Arten der äußeren Anbindung, der internationalen Konkurrenz und der internen Governancestruktur aufweisen.
Alle drei betrachteten Wertschöpfungsketten weisen eine ungenügende Geschlossenheit auf. Dies impliziert die Notwendigkeit einer Einbindung weiterer Regionen und höherer politischer Ebenen in den Transformationsprozess. NRW kann somit als eine Schlüsselregion verstanden werden, die zum Gelingen der Energiewende entscheidende Beiträge leisten kann - jedoch ist eine enge Kooperation mit weiteren deutschen Bundesländern wie auch den umgebenden Industrieregionen des europäischen Auslands notwendig.
Zur Realisierung der europäischen Klimaschutzziele muss der Industriesektor, besonders die energieintensive Grundstoffindustrie, seine Treibhausgasemissionen stark reduzieren. Obwohl in der Vergangenheit bereits große Fortschritte erzielt wurden, sind in Zukunft weitere, teils bahnbrechende Innovationen und der Aufbau der dafür benötigten Infrastruktur erforderlich. Im Rahmen dieses Projekts stellt das Wuppertal Institut für die "European Climate Foundation" den aktuellen Wissensstand zum Thema zusammen, diskutiert diesen vor dem Hintergrund der aktuellen Situation für Nordrhein-Westfalen (NRW), erstellt konsistente mögliche Zukunftsszenarien für NRW und leitet Schlüsselfragen und weiteren Forschungsbedarf für die Region ab.
Both focus group discussions and information-choice questionnaires (ICQs) have previously been used to examine informed public opinions about carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS). This paper presents an extensive experimental study to systematically examine and compare the quality of opinions created by these two research techniques. Depending on experimental condition, participants either participated in a focus group meeting or completed an ICQ. In both conditions participants received identical factual information about two specific CCS options. After having processed the information, they indicated their overall opinion about each CCS option. The quality of these opinions was determined by looking at three outcome-oriented indicators of opinion quality: consistency, stability, and confidence. Results for all three indicators showed that ICQs yielded higher-quality opinions than focus groups, but also that focus groups did not perform poor in this regard. Implications for the choice between focus group discussions and ICQs are discussed.
Im Rahmen des Forschungsclusters "Transformation Industrieller Infrastrukturen" des Virtuellen Instituts "Transformation - Energiewende NRW" haben sich Helena Mölter, Georg Kobiela, Daniel Vallentin und Timon Wehnert vom Wuppertal Institut mit Formaten zur Unterstützung von Transformations- und Innovationsprozessen in Unternehmen beschäftigt. Die Energiewende stellt nicht nur eine Herausforderung für Unternehmen dar, sondern bietet auch die Möglichkeit, zu Vorreitern der Dekarbonisierung zu werden. CO2-arme Produkte, Produktionsprozesse und Geschäftsmodelle können die Konkurrenzfähigkeit stärken. Doch was können Unternehmen tun, um die notwendigen Innovationen - auch in Kooperationen mit anderen - voranzutreiben? Dieser Frage nehmen sich die Autorinnen und Autoren in ihrer Studie an.
Because of a growing global energy demand and rising oil prices coal-abundant nations, such as China and the United States, are pursuing the application of technologies which could replace crude oil imports by converting coal to synthetic hydrocarbon fuels - so-called coal-to-liquids (CtL) technologies. The case of CtL is well suited to analyse techno-economic, resources-related, policy-driven and actor-related parameters, which are affecting the market prospects of a technology that eases energy security constraints but is hardly compatible with a progressive climate policy. This paper concentrates on Germany as an example - the European Union (EU)'s largest member state with considerable coal reserves. It shows that in Germany and the EU, CtL is facing rather unfavourable market conditions as high costs and ambitious climate targets offset its energy security advantage.
Because of a growing dependence on oil imports, powerful industrial, political and societal stakeholders in the UnitedStates are trying to enhance national energy security through the conversion of domestic coal into synthetic hydrocarbon liquid fuels - so-called coal-to-liquids (CtL) processes. However, because of the technology's high costs and carbon intensity, its market deployment is strongly affected by the US energy, technology and climate policy setting. This paper analyses and discusses policy drivers and barriers for CtL technologies in the United States and reaches the conclusion that an increasing awareness of global warming among US policy-makers raises the requirements for the technology's environmental performance and, thus, limits its potential to regional niche markets in coal-producing states or strategic markets, such as the military, with specific security and fuel requirements.
Inducing the international diffusion of carbon capture and storage technologies in the power sector
(2007)
Although CO2 capture and storage(CCS) technologies are heatedly debated, many politicians and energy producers consider them to be a possible technical option to mitigate carbon dioxide from large-point sources. Hence, both national and international decision-makers devote a growing amount of capacities and financial resources to CCS in order to develop and demonstrate the technology and enable ist broad diffusion.The presented report concentrates on the influence of policy incentives on CCS diffusion and examines the following research question: Which policy strategy is needed to stimulate the international diffusion of carbon capture and storage technologies in the power sector? Based on the analysis of innovation-specific (e.g. CCS competitiveness and compatibility), market-related (e.g. national CO2 discharges and storage capacities) and institutional determinants (e.g. existing national and international policy frameworks) of CCS diffusion, the paper discusses the suitability of various national and international policy instruments to induce the international deployment of CCS. Afterwards, three CCS diffusion paths are derived from fundamentally different carbon stabilisation scenarios which include climate policy measures to stimulate the adoption of CO2 mitigation technologies.
Several countries with large coal deposits but limited domestic oil reserves show high interest in coal-to-liquid (CtL) technologies, which could reduce crude oil imports by converting coal into liquid hydrocarbon fuels. After decades of successful large-scale operating experiences in South Africa, CtL activities in the United States, China and Germany have been fanned by the high oil price in the last years. However, CtL indicates negative techno-economic and resource-related features, such as high capital costs, high greenhouse gas discharges and high water consumption. Therefore, the technology's diffusion strongly depends on a favourable framework of policies and strong technology advocates. Daniel Vallentin analyses interdependencies between technical and non-technical parameters affecting the diffusion of CtL technologies in the United States, China and Germany. Applying the inter-disciplinary technological system approach, he identifies factors which determine the market prospects of CtL in these countries, including costs, the geographic distribution of coal reserves, actor constellations and technology, energy and climate policies. At the end of his study, he derives general conclusions with regard to driving forces and barriers for CtL diffusion. As the investigated countries are major consumers of energy and belong to the world's largest emitters of greenhouse gases, their strategies in substituting crude oil based fuels are of utmost global relevance. Therefore, Vallentin's study is recommended to experts, planners, decision-makers, and politicians in the field of climate and resource protection.
The Sino-German project "Low Carbon Future Cities" (LCFC) aims to develop a low carbon strategy for its Chinese pilot city Wuxi. The strategy primarily focuses on carbon mitigation, but also considers links with the issues of resource efficiency and adaption to climate change. This report written by Daniel Vallentin, Carmen Dienst and Chun Xia offers strategic examples of good practice and makes recommendations to Wuxi city government about the changes that key sectors can adopt in order to comply with its low carbon targets. The recommendations are based on scientific analyses which were undertaken earlier in the LCFC project.
Um weltweit hochindustrialisierte, energieintensive Bundesländer und Regionen bei der Entwicklung und Umsetzung von innovativer Klimapolitik zu unterstützen, wurde die "Energy Transition Platform" ins Leben gerufen. Ziel ist der Austausch von Erfahrungen sowie eine Einflussnahme auf den internationalen Klimadialog. Für diesen Austausch- und Dialogprozess erarbeitete das Wuppertal Institut für die "Climate Group" die Fallstudie "Eine Industrieregion im Wandel - Energie- und klimapolitische Rahmenbedingungen, Strategien und Instrumente in NRW". In dem Bericht werden aktuelle energie- und klimapolitische Entwicklungen, Politikinstrumente und Modellprojekte dargestellt und diskutiert.
Die Fallstudie macht deutlich, dass Nordrhein-Westfalen bei der Umsetzung der Energiewende zwar vor besonderen Herausforderungen steht, die Modernisierung des Energiesystems und des Industriestandortes NRW jedoch mit Hilfe eines vielfältigen Instrumentariums systematisch und intensiv angeht. Eine solche proaktive und langfristig ausgelegte Herangehensweise ist zentrale Voraussetzung dafür, dass die bevorstehende Transformation letztlich nicht zu einem kaum steuerbaren Strukturbruch in NRW und seinen Regionen und Kommunen führt, sondern zu einem schrittweisen Strukturwandel, der von Politik, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft gemeinsam gestaltet wird.
Several energy scenario studies consider concentrated solar power (CSP) plants as an important technology option to reduce the world's CO2 emissions to a level required for not letting the global average temperature exceed a threshold of 2–2.4 °C. A global ramp up of CSP technologies offers great economic opportunities for technology providers as CSP technologies include highly specialised components. This paper analyses possible value creation effects resulting from a global deployment of CSP until 2050 as projected in scenarios of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Greenpeace International. The analysis focuses on the economic opportunities of German technology providers since companies such as Schott Solar, Flabeg or Solar Millennium are among the leading suppliers of CSP technologies on the global market.
Um das vom Weltklimarat (IPCC) geforderte 2°C-Ziel einhalten zu können, ist eine Reduktion der globalen CO2-Emissionen um 80% bis 2050 gegenüber dem Stand von 1990 zwingend notwendig. Hierbei wird auch solarthermischen Kraftwerken eine immer größere Bedeutung beigemessen. Im BLUE Map-Szenario der Internationalen Energieagentur (IEA), das von einer CO2-Reduktion um 50% bis 2050 gegenüber 2005 ausgeht, müssen im Jahr 2050 ca. 11% (4.754 TWh) des weltweiten Strombedarfs durch Sonnenenergie gedeckt werden (IEA 2008). Neben Photovoltaik sollen solarthermische Kraftwerke (Concentrated Solar Power, CSP) etwa 46% (ca. 2.200 TWh) der prognostizierten Menge an Solarstrom erzeugen. Im Energy[R]evolution Szenario von Greenpeace International und EREC (European Renewable Energy Council) aus dem Jahr 2008 werden rund 6.000 TWh an CSP-Strom im Jahr 2050 angenommen (bei einer installierten Leistung von 801 GW), während andere Studien bis zu 1.000 GW installierter Leistung in 2050 betrachten (Viebahn et al. 2010). Die DESERTEC-Initiative gibt ein Ziel von 5.000 GW installierter Leistung im Jahr 2050 vor.
Der Export von CSP-Technologien in die "Sunbelt"-Regionen bietet große Chancen für deutsche Anlagenbauer. So sind u.a. Schott Solar, die Ferrostaal Group mit ihrem Geschäftssegment "Solar Energy", Flagsol, die Solar Power Group, Solar Millenium und Fichtner Solar auf dem Gebiet CSP aktiv. Schott Solar (Receiver) und Flabeg (Spiegel) haben eine weltweit führende Markstellung inne. Große deutsche Energieversorger und Anlagenbauer wie E.On, RWE und Siemens gehören zum Industriekonsortium der Desertec Industrial Initiative, die den Ausbau von CSP in der MENA-Region vorantreiben will. Die Initiative wurde von der Münchener Rück angestoßen.
In diesem Artikel wird dargestellt, welche Aktivitäten deutsche Unternehmen entlang der Wertschöpfungskette bislang aufweisen und wie ihre Marktstellung im Vergleich zu führenden internationalen Unternehmen zu bewerten ist. Anschließend wird auf Basis von vorliegenden Energieszenarien ermittelt, welche messbaren ökonomischen Effekte für deutsche Unternehmen, z.B. zusätzliche Wertschöpfung und die Schaffung neuer Arbeitsplätze, aus den genannen Potentialen resultieren. Die Ergebnisse basieren auf einer Studie des Wuppertal Instituts, die im Auftrag von Greenpeace Deutschland und der DESERTEC Foundation erstellt wurde.