Zukünftige Energie- und Industriesysteme
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New energy technologies may fail to make the transition to the market once research funding has ended due to a lack of private engagement to conclude their development. Extending public funding to cover such experimental developments could be one way to improve this transition. However, identifying promising research and development (R&D) proposals for this purpose is a difficult task for the following reasons: Close-to-market implementations regularly require substantial resources while public budgets are limited; the allocation of public funds needs to be fair, open, and documented; the evaluation is complex and subject to public sector regulations for public engagement in R&D funding. This calls for a rigorous evaluation process. This paper proposes an operational three-staged decision support system (DSS) to assist decision-makers in public funding institutions in the ex-ante evaluation of R&D proposals for large-scale close-to-market projects in energy research. The system was developed based on a review of literature and related approaches from practice combined with a series of workshops with practitioners from German public funding institutions. The results confirm that the decision-making process is a complex one that is not limited to simply scoring R&D proposals. Decision-makers also have to deal with various additional issues such as determining the state of technological development, verifying market failures or considering existing funding portfolios. The DSS that is suggested in this paper is unique in the sense that it goes beyond mere multi-criteria aggregation procedures and addresses these issues as well to help guide decision-makers in public institutions through the evaluation process.
The Paris Agreement introduces long-term strategies as an instrument to inform progressively more ambitious emission reduction objectives, while holding development goals paramount in the context of national circumstances. In the lead up to the twenty-first Conference of the Parties, the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project developed mid-century low-emission pathways for 16 countries, based on an innovative pathway design framework. In this Perspective, we describe this framework and show how it can support the development of sectorally and technologically detailed, policy-relevant and country-driven strategies consistent with the Paris Agreement climate goal. We also discuss how this framework can be used to engage stakeholder input and buy-in; design implementation policy packages; reveal necessary technological, financial and institutional enabling conditions; and support global stocktaking and increasing of ambition.
Given large potentials of the MENA region for renewable energy production, transitions towards renewables-based energy systems seem a promising way for meeting growing energy demand while contributing to greenhouse gas emissions reductions according to the Paris Agreement at the same time. Supporting and steering transitions to a low-carbon energy system require a clear understanding of socio-technical interdependencies in the energy system as well as of the principle dynamics of system innovations. For facilitating such understanding, a phase model for renewables-based energy transitions in MENA countries, which structures the transition process over time through the differentiation of a set of sub-sequent distinct phases, is developed in this article. The phase model builds on a phase model depicting the German energy transition, which was complemented by insights about transition governance and adapted to reflect characteristics of the MENA region. The resulting model includes four phases ("Take-off renewables", "System integration", "Power to fuel/gases”, "Towards 100% renewables”), each of which is characterized by a different cluster of innovations. These innovations enter the system via three stages of development which describe different levels of maturity and market penetration, and which require appropriate governance. The phase model has the potential to support strategy development and governance of energy transitions in MENA countries in two complementary ways: it provides an overview of techno-economic developments as orienting guidelines for decision-makers, and it adds some guidance as to which governance approaches are suitable for supporting those developments.
The production of commodities by energy-intensive industry is responsible for 1/3 of annual global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The climate goal of the Paris Agreement, to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C, requires global GHG emissions reach net-zero and probably negative by 2055-2080. Given the average economic lifetime of industrial facilities is 20 years or more, this indicates all new investment must be net-zero emitting by 2035-2060 or be compensated by negative emissions to guarantee GHG-neutrality. We argue, based on a sample portfolio of emerging and near-commercial technologies for each sector (largely based on zero carbon electricity & heat sources, biomass and carbon capture, and catalogued in an accompanying database), that reducing energy-intensive industrial GHG emissions to Paris Agreement compatible levels may not only be technically possible, but can be achieved with sufficient prioritization and policy effort. We then review policy options to drive innovation and investment in these technologies. From this we synthesize a preliminary integrated strategy for a managed transition with minimum stranded assets, unemployment, and social trauma that recognizes the competitive and globally traded nature of commodity production. The strategy includes: an initial policy commitment followed by a national and sectoral stakeholder driven pathway process to build commitment and identify opportunities based on local zero carbon resources; penetration of near-commercial technologies through increasing valuation of GHG material intensity through GHG pricing or flexible regulations with protection for competitiveness and against carbon leakage; research and demand support for the output of pilot plants, including some combination of guaranteed above-market prices that decline with output and an increasing requirement for low carbon inputs in government procurement; and finally, key supporting institutions.
Nigeria is Africa's largest economy and home to approximately 10% of the un-electrified population of Sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, 77 million Nigerians or 40% of the population had no access to affordable, reliable and sustainable electricity. In practice, diesel- and petrol-fuelled back-up generators supply the vast majority of electricity in the country. In Nigeria's nationally-determined contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement, over 60% of the greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) reductions are foreseen in the power sector. The goal of this study is to identify and critically examine the pathways available to Nigeria to meet its 2030 electricity access, renewables and decarbonization goals in the power sector. Using published data and stakeholder interviews, we build three potential scenarios for electrification and growth in demand, generation and transmission capacity. The demand assumptions incorporate existing knowledge on pathways for electrification via grid extension, mini-grids and solar home systems (SHS). The supply assumptions are built upon an evaluation of the investment pipeline for generation and transmission capacity, and possible scale-up rates up to 2030. The results reveal that, in the most ambitious Green Transition scenario, Nigeria meets its electricity access goals, whereby those connected to the grid achieve a Tier 3 level of access, and those served by sustainable off-grid solutions (mini-grids and SHS) achieve Tier 2. Decarbonization pledges would be surpassed in all three scenarios but renewable energy goals would only be partly met. Fossil fuel-based back-up generation continues to play a substantial role in all scenarios. The implications and critical uncertainties of these findings are extensively discussed.
The European Union (EU) has established that the goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2050 as a key driver of innovation and growth for industry and the economy in the EU. In addition to offering great opportunities, this also poses considerable challenges for the European economy and, for the most part, for basic industries, which are particularly emission-intensive and face strong international competition.
An integrated climate and industry strategy is of central importance to protecting the climate, since the production of steel, cement, basic chemicals, glass, paper, and other materials in the EU and worldwide accounts for roughly one fifth of total greenhouse gas emissions. Even in a greenhouse gas-neutral future, we will not be able to fully eliminate our need for these materials. At the same time, it is particularly challenging to produce these materials without creating emissions given the state of technology and the necessary infrastructures. This applies above all to the question of how large amounts of green energy, including electricity and hydrogen, can be produced at competitive prices. Analyses show that despite the considerable costs involved in process changeover, the costs of transforming the raw materials industry are acceptable to society as a whole, given that the additional costs usually only increase the price of the end products by a few percentage points. However, in the case of crude steel or cement, the price would increase by between one third and 100 per cent. Since almost all raw materials manufacturers face strong global market competition, in most cases they are not able to bankroll the investments in climate-neutral production and the required energy infrastructure without outside support.
This paper outlines an integrated climate industrial policy package that allows the EU to utilise its existing technological leadership in many of these industries to build a greenhouse gas-neutral raw materials industry.
Im Rahmen einer strategischen Partnerschaft zwischen Deutschland und Brasilien verfolgt die Zusammenarbeit für Nachhaltige Entwicklung (ZnE) das beidseitige Interesse, die Klima- und Biodiversitätsziele Brasiliens zu erreichen. Die Schwerpunkte der deutsch-brasilianischen Zusammenarbeit liegen auf den Bereichen Schutz und nachhaltige Nutzung der brasilianischen Tropenwälder und Erneuerbaren Energien und Energieeffizienz.
Im Schwerpunkt Energie kooperieren GIZ und KfW im Auftrag des BMZ seit 2009 mit brasilianischen Partnern. Die Zusammenarbeit beruht hierbei auf zentralen Hypothesen bezüglich zu erwartender Wirkungen im Hinblick auf die brasilianische Energiematrix, die Reduktion von Treibhausgasemissionen, die Schaffung geeigneter Rahmenbedingungen für erneuerbare Energien und Energieeffizienz, sowie die Entstehung neuer Märkte.
Ziel ist, mit den von deutscher Seite eingesetzten Ressourcen einen höchstmöglichen Mehrwert in den Bereichen Klimaschutz und Biodiversität zu erreichen. Ein zusätzlicher Aspekt der Zusammenarbeit ist die Förderung neuer Märkte für international wettbewerbsfähige Zweige der deutschen und europäischen Wirtschaft.
Inwieweit die unternommenen Maßnahmen zu den erwarteten Wirkungen beitragen, und wie sie weiterentwickelt werden könnten, wurde im Rahmen dieser Studie in Zusammenarbeit mit dem brasilianischen Partnerinstitut COPPE der Universität Rio de Janeiro anhand von ausgewählten Projekten aus verschiedenen Technologiebereichen untersucht. Diese Studie dient neben der kritischen Betrachtung von abgeschlossenen und laufenden Vorhaben der ZnE auch der künftigen strategischen Ausrichtung der technischen und finanziellen Zusammenarbeit zwischen Deutschland und Brasilien.
Angewandte Systemanalyse
(2008)
On 26 January 2019, the Commission on Growth, Structural Change and Employment recommended that no more coal-fired power plants would be operated in Germany by 2038 at the latest. In this paper the Wuppertal Institute comments on the results of the Commission and makes recommendations for the current necessary steps for the climate and innovation policy in Europe, Germany and North Rhine-Westphalia.
There is an increasing pressure that enhanced and novel energy technologies are swiftly adopted by the market to ensure meeting the energy and climate targets. An important issue with such novel developments is their risk to be stuck in the "valley of death", i.e. that their transition to the market is delayed or unsuccessful. Publicly supported demonstration projects could help to bridge the valley of death by reducing barriers to the adoption caused by missing information and perceived risks. A challenge for technology demonstrations in the industrial context is their often high investments that are required to prove their real-world benefits. Given the magnitude of such investments, it becomes crucial that public funding focuses on the most promising demonstration proposals. Structured evaluation processes can help to facilitate the identification of promising proposals and to improve the quality and transparency of decisions. This paper deals with a corresponding multi-staged multi-criteria decision support system (DSS) suggested to the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy. It deals with the evaluation of demonstration proposals across three stages: The first stage represents a filtering stage to identify those proposals relevant for further considerations. The second stage comprises a multi-criteria scoring method drawing on an evaluation against nineteen criteria. The final third stage serves to critically review the need for public funding of well-scored proposals. This contribution outlines the development of the DSS and its design and thus provides insights on proposal evaluating in energy research.
Carbon capture and storage
(2009)
CCS und Biomasse
(2015)
Der schnell fortschreitende Digitalisierungs- und Automatisierungsprozess ist heute schon ein wichtiger Wegbegleiter für die Transformation des aktuellen Energiesystems. Im vorliegenden Beitrag werden sechs Anwendungsbeispiele vorgestellt, die deutlich machen, dass die Energiewende ohne Digitalisierung nicht denkbar ist.
Welchen Effekt haben engagierte Klimaschutzmaßnahmen der Politik auf NRW's Schlüsselbranchen, wie Automotive, chemische Industrie, Finanzwirtschaft oder Energiewirtschaft? Eine Kurzstudie des Wuppertal Instituts untersucht, welche Chancen und Risiken aus dieser Praxis entstehen können. Außerdem werden Arbeitsplatz- und Wertschöpfungseffekte auch mit Blick auf entstehende Zukunftsmärkte analysiert.
The industry sector accounted for just over 30% of global GHG emissions in 2010 and scenarios envisage a continuing rise in demand for energy-intensive materials. This article sums up the most recent international analysis (IPCC, IEA, UNIDO, Global Energy Assessment) to give a broad view of the current prospects for reducing GHG emissions in industry. It does so from a global perspective, complementing where necessary where regional and sector-specific case studies. The article addresses the portfolio of options available, their technical and economic potentials, the experience in the use of policy instruments in industry, the synergies and tradeoffs that mitigation in the industry sector can have with other policy objectives, and the specific concerns of developing countries. Long-term decarbonisation pathways for the sector are also presented.
The CO2 utilisation is discussed as one of the future low-carbon technologies in order to accomplish a full decarbonisation in the energy intensive industry. CO2 is separated from the flue gas stream of power plants or industrial plants and is prepared for further processing as raw material. CO2 containing gas streams from industrial processes exhibit a higher concentration of CO2 than flue gases from power plants; consequentially, industrial CO2 sources are used as raw material for the chemical industry and for the synthesis of fuel on the output side. Additionally, fossil resources can be replaced by substitutes of reused CO2 on the input side. If set up in a right way, this step into a CO2-based circular flow economy could make a contribution to the decarbonisation of the industrial sector and according to the adjusted potential, even rudimentarily to the energy sector.
In this study, the authors analyse potential CO2 sources, the potential demand and the range of applications of CO2. In the last chapter of the final report, they give recommendations for research, development, politics and economics for an appropriate future designing of CO2 utilisation options based upon their previous analysis.
CO2-capture and geological storage as a climate policy option : technologies, concepts, perspectives
(2007)
The idea of removing carbon dioxide from flue gas and industrial gas flows and putting it into suitable long-term storage sites is referred to as Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). This publication provides a close look at this new line of technologies, describing its current status and outlining the prospects for development. The approach is both diagnostic and analytical, identifying the questions a technology assessment poses and showing the steps that need to be taken to implement CCS.
CCS is currently moving to the centre of climate policy discussion. Nonetheless this line of technologies is still the subject of controversial discussion. On the one hand there is a clear hope that these technologies will open up opportunities to use fossil fuels without harming the climate and thus make it possible to continue using oil, natural gas and above all coal even under a stricter climate regime. Accordingly, numerous R&D projects have been initiated all over the world, and various demonstration projects are at the planning or implementation stage. On the other hand, CCS (especially the storage part) has given rise to considerable scepticism from an ecological point of view.
Die in Paris Ende 2015 beschlossene Vereinbarung gibt das Ziel vor, die Erderwärmung bis 2100 auf deutlich unter 2 Grad Celsius zu begrenzen, möglichst aber auf unter 1,5 Grad Celsius. Die vorliegende Studie setzt sich mit der Frage von Fridays for Future Deutschland auseinander, welche Dimension von Veränderungen im deutschen Energiesystem erforderlich wären, um einen angemessenen Beitrag für das Erreichen der 1,5-Grad-Grenze leisten zu können. Nach Abschätzung des Weltklimarates, dem Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), lassen sich mit dieser Temperaturgrenze die Risiken und Auswirkungen des Klimawandels gegenüber einer stärkeren Erderwärmung erheblich verringern.
Die Autorinnen und Autoren haben dabei den Budgetansatz des Sachverständigenrats für Umweltfragen (SRU) der Bundesregierung zugrunde gelegt. Um das 1,5-Grad-Ziel mit einer Wahrscheinlichkeit von 50 Prozent zu erreichen, ist das Restbudget an damit verträglichen Treibhausgasemissionen eng begrenzt. Für Deutschland bleibt gemäß des Sachverständigenrats für Umweltfragen ab dem Jahr 2020 noch ein Restbudget von 4,2 Gigatonnen CO2. Dabei geht der Sachverständigenrat von der Annahme aus, dass auf globaler Ebene jedem Menschen für die Zukunft ein gleiches Pro-Kopf-Emissionsrecht zugestanden werden soll. Mit dieser Klimaschutzvorgabe geht er deutlich weiter als die aktuellen politischen Vorgaben der Europäischen Union und der Bundesregierung, die diese für sich aus den Pariser Klimaschutzvereinbarungen ableiten.
Die vom SRU formulierte Zielmarke lässt sich einhalten, wenn das Energiesystem (Energiewirtschaft, Industrie, Verkehr und Gebäudewärme) bis zum Jahr 2035 CO2-neutral aufgestellt wird und die Emissionen insbesondere in den nächsten Jahren bereits überproportional stark gesenkt werden können.
Die vorliegende Studie untersucht die technische und in gewissem Maße auch die ökonomische Machbarkeit einer Transformation zur CO2-Neutralität bis 2035. Ob sich dieses Ziel jedoch tatsächlich realisieren lässt, hängt auch maßgeblich von der gesellschaftlichen Bereitschaft und einem massiven politischen Fokus auf die notwendige Transformation ab. Die Studie gibt somit Aufschluss darüber, inwiefern es grundlegende technologische und wirtschaftliche Hindernisse für die CO2-Neutralität 2035 gibt; nicht jedoch ob die Umsetzung realpolitisch tatsächlich gelingen kann bzw. was dafür im Einzelnen getan werden muss. Neben den technischen und ökonomischen Herausforderungen einer Transformation hin zu CO2-Neutralität bestehen zentrale Herausforderungen auch in institutioneller und kultureller Hinsicht, zum Beispiel bei Themen wie der Akzeptanz für einen starken Ausbau von Erneuerbaren-Energien-Anlagen und von Energieinfrastrukturen oder hinsichtlich der Notwendigkeit eines deutlich veränderten Verkehrsverhaltens.
Die Technologie der CO2-Abtrennung und -Speicherung (CCS) sowie die CO2-Nutzung (CCR) wird in diesem Fachbuch umfassend und aus unterschiedlicher Perspektive beleuchtet.
Experten aus Forschung und Industrie stellen die CCS- und CCR-Technologie auf Basis der naturwissenschaftlichen und technischen Grundlagen vor und legen den Stand der Technik dar. Sie vergleichen Energiebilanzen für verschiedene Techniken und diskutieren rechtliche, wirtschaftliche und gesellschaftspolitische Aspekte. In Szenarioanalysen zeigen sie den möglichen zukünftigen Beitrag der Technologien auf und stellen die Sichtweisen der verschiedenen Stakeholder-Gruppen vor.
Die Autoren haben den Anspruch, wertfrei zu informieren. Dabei legen sie die Kriterien für die Bewertung der einzelnen Sichtweisen offen.
For the option of “carbon capture and storage”, an integrated assessment in the form of a life cycle analysis and a cost assessment combined with a systematic comparison with renewable energies regarding future conditions in the power plant market for the situation in Germany is done. The calculations along the whole process chain show that CCS technologies emit per kWh more than generally assumed in clean-coal concepts (total CO2 reduction by 72-90% and total greenhouse gas reduction by 65-79%) and considerable more if compared with renewable electricity. Nevertheless, CCS could lead to a significant absolute reduction of GHG-emissions within the electricity supply system. Furthermore, depending on the growth rates and the market development, renewables could develop faster and could be in the long term cheaper than CCS based plants. Especially, in Germany, CCS as a climate protection option is phasing a specific problem as a huge amount of fossil power plant has to be substituted in the next 15 years where CCS technologies might be not yet available. For a considerable contribution of CCS to climate protection, the energy structure in Germany requires the integration of capture ready plants into the current renewal programs. If CCS retrofit technologies could be applied at least from 2020, this would strongly decrease the expected CO2 emissions and would give a chance to reach the climate protection goal of minus 80% including the renewed fossil-fired power plants.
In recent decades, better data and methods have become available for understanding the complex functioning of cities and their impacts on sustainability. This review synthesizes the recent developments in concepts and methods being used to measure the impacts of cities on environmental sustainability. It differentiates between a dominant trend in research literature that concentrates on the accounting and allocation of greenhouse gas emissions and energy use to cities and a reemergence of studies that focus on the direct and indirect material and resource flows in cities. The methodological approaches reviewed may consider cities as either producers or consumers, and all recognize that urban environmental impacts can be local, regional, or global. As well as giving an overview of the methodological debates, we examine the implications of the different approaches for policy and the challenges these approaches face in their application on the field.
Will climate change stay below the 2 degree target in the 21st century on the basis of the COP 21 results? Looking into challenges and opportunities, this paper answers: To stay below the global 2dt is neither a real choice for the world society nor for businesses and civil societies in specific countries. It is a global guideline, scientifically developed for global negotiations, which should be broken down to national interests and actors. Key questions concerning the energy sector from the perspective of national interests are how to create and sustain a momentum for the inevitable energy transition, how to encourage disruptive innovations, avoid lock in effects, enable rapid deployment of energy efficiency and renewable energies etc. Or in other words: how to get to a competitive, economically benign, inclusive, low carbon and risk minimising energy system. With this background the paper argues that "burden sharing" is a misleading perception of strong climate mitigation strategies. It is more realistic to talk about "benefit sharing", using the monetary benefits and co-benefits of climate mitigation (e.g. energy cost savings, revenues from CO2-tax or emission trading systems) to help vulnerable national and international actors to adapt to the unavoidable climate risks. It has to be demonstrated on country level that the technologies and policy mix of strong climate mitigation and risk-minimising actions are indeed "benefit sharing" strategies which should be chosen anyhow, even if there was no climate change. For China and Germany this paper includes basic findings supporting this view.
Das Ende des Öls
(2006)
On behalf of the Port of Rotterdam Authority, the Wuppertal Institute developed three possible pathways for a decarbonised port of Rotterdam until 2050. The port area is home to about 80 per cent of the Netherlands' petrochemical industry and significant power plant capacities. Consequently, the port of Rotterdam has the potential of being an international leader for the global energy transition, playing an important role when it comes to reducing CO2 emissions in order to deliver on the EU's long-term climate goals.
The three decarbonisation scenarios all built on the increasing use of renewables (wind and solar power) and the adoption of the best available technologies (efficiency). The analysis focuses on power plants, refineries and the chemical industry, which together are responsible for more than 90 per cent of the port area's current CO2 emissions.
The decarbonisation scenarios describe how CO2 emissions could be reduced by 75 to 98 per cent in 2050 (compared to 2015). Depending on the scenario, different mitigation strategies are relied upon, including electrification, closure of carbon cycles or carbon capture and storage (CCS). The study includes recommendations for local companies, the Port Authority as well as policy makers. In addition, the study includes a reference scenario, which makes it clear that a "business as usual" mentality will fall well short of contributing adequately to the EU's long-term climate goals.