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A number of "roadmapping" activities are being carried out internationally with the aim of planning and facilitating transitions to hydrogen energy systems. However, there is an evident discrepancy between the treatment of quantitative and qualitative information in the majority of roadmapping efforts. Whilst quantitative information is frequently analysed in numerical and computational models, conversely qualitative information tends to be incorporated on a significantly more ad hoc basis. Previous attempts at incorporating qualitative considerations have not usually been systematised. In this paper we present a methodology aimed at increasing the rigour with which qualitative information is treated in hydrogen roadmapping activities. The key changes and actor mapping (KCAM) methodology was developed as the primary qualitative component of the European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap project "HyWays". KCAM, developed from a well known general systems development model, constitutes a means of qualitatively analysing variable hydrogen supply chains that is structured, systematic and flexible.
Nigeria is Africa's largest economy and home to approximately 10% of the un-electrified population of Sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, 77 million Nigerians or 40% of the population had no access to affordable, reliable and sustainable electricity. In practice, diesel- and petrol-fuelled back-up generators supply the vast majority of electricity in the country. In Nigeria's nationally-determined contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement, over 60% of the greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) reductions are foreseen in the power sector. The goal of this study is to identify and critically examine the pathways available to Nigeria to meet its 2030 electricity access, renewables and decarbonization goals in the power sector. Using published data and stakeholder interviews, we build three potential scenarios for electrification and growth in demand, generation and transmission capacity. The demand assumptions incorporate existing knowledge on pathways for electrification via grid extension, mini-grids and solar home systems (SHS). The supply assumptions are built upon an evaluation of the investment pipeline for generation and transmission capacity, and possible scale-up rates up to 2030. The results reveal that, in the most ambitious Green Transition scenario, Nigeria meets its electricity access goals, whereby those connected to the grid achieve a Tier 3 level of access, and those served by sustainable off-grid solutions (mini-grids and SHS) achieve Tier 2. Decarbonization pledges would be surpassed in all three scenarios but renewable energy goals would only be partly met. Fossil fuel-based back-up generation continues to play a substantial role in all scenarios. The implications and critical uncertainties of these findings are extensively discussed.
Nigeria is Africa's top cement producer and could be on course to be one of the top producers globally. The goal of this study is to identify and critically examine the pathways available to Nigeria to meet its decarbonisation goals in the cement sector. Based on a literature review, the study assesses demand drivers and decarbonisation potentials for the sector. It then presents two different quantitative pathways for growth in production of cement by 2050, and three different pathways for decarbonisation of the sector. Using published data and a scenario analysis tool, the study calculates how the sector's emissions might evolve under each of these pathways. The results indicate that, in the most ambitious scenario, emissions from the sector can plateau by the late 2030s, resulting in an overall increase of 21% by 2050 (compared to 2015 levels). Achieving this scenario is necessary in order to put the sector on a path to net zero emissions beyond 2050. The scenario is driven by reductions in both energy-related and process emissions, as well as a small share of carbon capture and storage and demand management. A moderately ambitious scenario that relies mostly on savings on energy-related emissions results in an 84% increase in emissions by 2050. Finally, the Business-as-Usual scenario results in an almost tripling of emissions by 2050. The results indicate a strong potential for policies to drive improvements in energy efficiency and clinker-to-cement ratio. Critical areas of uncertainty within the assumptions include the production rates (including the evolution of the export market) and the fuel mix.
Do ngân sách các-bon còn lại trên toàn thế giới đang giảm nhanh chóng, các quốc gia trên toàn cầu đang tìm kiếm các giải pháp để hạn chế phát thải khí nhà kính. Ngành công nghiệp sản xuất và sử dụng than là một trong những ngành phát thải nhiều các-bon nhất, do vậy, các khu vực khai thác than sẽ bị ảnh hưởng đặc biệt bởi quá trình chuyển đổi sang hệ thống năng lượng và kinh tế trung hòa với khí hậu. Tại các khu vực thực hiện chuyển đổi, những thách thức không chỉ tồn tại trong lĩnh vực sản xuất năng lượng, bảo vệ môi trường, mà còn ở các lĩnh vực kinh tế và xã hội - thường được biết đến với khái niệm "Chuyển đổi Công bằng". Các cấp ra quyết định ở các khu vực khai thác than rất cần có các công cụ hỗ trợ giúp họ xác định các giải pháp chuyển đổi, vừa giúp đa dạng hóa nền kinh tế, vừa hỗ trợ người lao động và cộng đồng địa phương. Viện Wuppertal mong muốn hỗ trợ nâng cao năng lực cho các khu vực khai thác than trên toàn thế giới thông qua Bộ công cụ Chuyển dịch Công bằng – một tài liệu tổng quát, minh họa những thách thức và cơ hội của quá trình chuyển đổi bền vững. Bộ Công cụ này bao gồm kiến thức về xây dựng chiến lược, đưa ra các khuyến nghị về quản trị quá trình chuyển đổi, thúc đẩy việc làm bền vững, nêu bật các lựa chọn công nghệ và đề cập tới vấn đề phục hồi môi trường, tái sử dụng các cơ sở hạ tầng sản xuất than. Bộ Công cụ này được xây dựng dựa trên các nghiên cứu của Viện Wuppertal trong khuôn khổ “Sáng kiến của Liên Minh Châu Âu về chuyển dịch tại các khu vực khai thác than” và các kinh nghiệm thực tế của một số khu vực khai thác than trên toàn thế giới.
The industry sector accounted for just over 30% of global GHG emissions in 2010 and scenarios envisage a continuing rise in demand for energy-intensive materials. This article sums up the most recent international analysis (IPCC, IEA, UNIDO, Global Energy Assessment) to give a broad view of the current prospects for reducing GHG emissions in industry. It does so from a global perspective, complementing where necessary where regional and sector-specific case studies. The article addresses the portfolio of options available, their technical and economic potentials, the experience in the use of policy instruments in industry, the synergies and tradeoffs that mitigation in the industry sector can have with other policy objectives, and the specific concerns of developing countries. Long-term decarbonisation pathways for the sector are also presented.
In recent decades, better data and methods have become available for understanding the complex functioning of cities and their impacts on sustainability. This review synthesizes the recent developments in concepts and methods being used to measure the impacts of cities on environmental sustainability. It differentiates between a dominant trend in research literature that concentrates on the accounting and allocation of greenhouse gas emissions and energy use to cities and a reemergence of studies that focus on the direct and indirect material and resource flows in cities. The methodological approaches reviewed may consider cities as either producers or consumers, and all recognize that urban environmental impacts can be local, regional, or global. As well as giving an overview of the methodological debates, we examine the implications of the different approaches for policy and the challenges these approaches face in their application on the field.
Implementation of nationally determined contributions : Islamic Republic of Iran country report
(2018)
The study analyses the country background, emissions trends, ongoing activities and barriers relating to the implementation of the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of the Islamic Republic of Iran under the UNFCCC. A special emphasis is laid on further mitigation potentials in the fields of demand-side efficiency through energy-price reform, upstream oil and gas efficiency (with an emphasis on gas flaring) and a sustainable energy mix (with an emphasis on renewable energies).
As the worldwide remaining carbon budget decreases rapidly, countries across the globe are searching for solutions to limit greenhouse gas emissions. As the production and use of coal is among the most carbon-intensive processes, it is foreseeable that coal regions will be particularly affected by the consequences of a transformation towards a climate-neutral economy and energy system.
Challenges arise in the area of energy production, environmental protection, but also for economic and social aspects in the transforming regions - often coined with the term "Just Transition". For the decision makers in coal regions, there is an urgent need for support tools that help to kick off measures to diversify the local economies while at the same time supporting the local workers and communities.
The Wuppertal Institute aims to support coal regions worldwide by developing a Just Transition Toolbox, which illustrates the challenges and opportunities of a sustainable transition for a global audience. It comprises information about strategy development, sets recommendations for governance structures, fostering sustainable employment, highlights technology options and sheds light on the environmental rehabilitation and repurposing of coal-related sites and infrastructure. The toolbox builds on the work of the Wuppertal Institute for the EU Initiative for Coal Regions in Transition and takes into account country-specific findings from the SPIPA-partner countries India, Indonesia, South Africa, Japan, South Korea, Canada and the USA. The acronym SPIPA is short for "Strategic Partnerships for the Implementation of the Paris Agreement" an EU-BMU programme co-financed by the GIZ.
A medida que el presupuesto mundial de carbono disminuye rápidamente, los países de todo el mundo buscan soluciones para limitar las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. Dado que la producción y el uso del carbón son algunos de los procesos más intensivos en emisiones carbono, es previsible que las regiones que producen carbón se vean especialmente afectadas por las consecuencias de una transformación hacia la neutralidad climática. Estas regiones se enfrentan a retos en el ámbito de la producción de energía y la protección del medio ambiente, pero también a retos económicos y sociales, que se engloban en la necesidad de una "transición justa". Los responsables de la toma de decisiones en las regiones dependientes de la producción de carbón necesitan urgentemente herramientas de apoyo que ayuden a poner en marcha medidas para diversificar las economías locales y, al mismo tiempo, apoyar a los trabajadores y las comunidades locales. Wuppertal Institute busca apoyar a las regiones carboníferas de todo el mundo desarrollando una caja de herramientas para la transición justa, que ilustra los retos y las oportunidades de una transición sostenible para un público global. La caja de herramientas incluye recomendaciones para el desarrollo de estrategias y estructuras de gobernanza, líneas guía para la creación de empleo sostenible, el desarrollo de alternativas tecnológicas, la rehabilitación medioambiental y la reutilización de infraestructuras relacionados con el carbón. La caja de herramientas se basa parte del trabajo de Wuppertal Institute dentro de la Iniciativa de la UE para las Regiones Carboníferas en Transición y tiene en cuenta las circunstancias específicas de los países socios de la SPIPA: India, Indonesia, Sudáfrica, Japón, Corea del Sur, Canadá y Estados Unidos. El acrónimo SPIPA es la abreviatura de "Asociaciones Estratégicas para la Aplicación del Acuerdo de París", un programa UE-BMU cofinanciado por la GIZ.
It is now widely recognized that effective communication and demand-side policies for alternative energy require sound knowledge of preferences and determinants of demand of the public and consumers. To date, public attitudes towards new transport technologies have been studied under very different conceptual frameworks. This paper gives an overview of the various conceptual frameworks and methodologies used, where four main approaches can be distinguished: general attitudinal surveys, risk perception studies, non-market economic valuation studies, and other approaches such as those based on semiotic theory. We then review the findings of the recent literature on acceptance, attitudes and preferences for hydrogen and fuelcell end-use technologies, focusing on vehicles. These studies are then contrasted with related research into alternative fuel vehicles. The paper finally discusses the main trends in research and avenues for further work in this field. We recommend, among other things, the use of approaches that build knowledge and familiarity with the technology prior to the exploration of attitudes, and the set up of studies that take a whole-systems perspective of hydrogen technologies and that look at hydrogen in the context of other competing clean technologies.
The German federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) is home to one of the most important industrial regions in Europe, and is the first German state to have adopted its own Climate Protection Law (CPL). This paper describes the long-term (up to 2050) mitigation scenarios for NRW’s main energy-intensive industrial sub-sectors which served to support the implementation of the CPL. It also describes the process of scenario development, as these scenarios were developed through stakeholder participation. The scenarios considered three different pathways (best-available technologies, break-through technologies, and CO2 capture and storage). All pathways had optimistic assumptions on the rate of industrial growth and availability of low-carbon electricity. We find that a policy of "re-industrialisation" for NRW based on the current industrial structures (assumed here to represent an average growth of NRWs industrial gross value added (GVA) of 1.6% per year until 2030 and 0.6% per year from 2030 to 2050), would pose a significant challenge for the achievement of overall energy demand and German greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets, in particular as remaining efficiency potentials in NRW are limited. In the best-available technology (BAT) scenario CO2 emission reductions of only 16% are achieved, whereas the low carbon (LC) and the carbon capture and storage (CCS) scenario achieve 50% and 79% reduction respectively. Our results indicate the importance of successful development and implementation of a decarbonised electricity supply and breakthrough technologies in industry - such as electrification, hydrogen-based processes for steel, alternative cements or CCS - if significant growth is to be achieved in combination with climate mitigation. They, however, also show that technological solutions alone, together with unmitigated growth in consumption of material goods, could be insufficient to meet GHG reduction targets in industry.
Dengan semakin berkurangnya "anggaran karbon" atau carbon budget di seluruh dunia, berbagai negara sedang mencari solusi untuk mengurangi emisi gas rumah kaca. Karena produksi dan penggunaan batu bara dapat dikatakan sebagai salah satu penghasil emisi karbon yang sangat besar dan memicu perubahan iklim, oleh karena itu dapat diperkirakan bahwa wilayah penghasil batu bara akan sangat terdampak akibat transformasi energi dari sistem energi yang berbasis bahan bakar fosil menjadi energi terbarukan. Tantangan yang muncul tidak hanya di bidang produksi energi, perlindungan lingkungan, tetapi juga dalam aspek ekonomi dan sosial di kawasan kawasan batu bara yang tengah menghadapi transformasi - sering disebut dengan istilah "Transisi Berkeadilan". Para pengambil keputusan di wilayah penghasil batu bara, sangat membutuhkan alat pendukung untuk memulai langkah-langkah untuk mendiversifikasi ekonomi lokal yang disaat bersamaan juga mendukung pekerja dan masyarakat lokal. Transisi Berkeadilan ini membutuhkan perencanaan yang komprehensif, kebijakan baru dan penyesuaian serta keterlibatan semua pemangku kepentingan.
Oleh karena itu, Wuppertal Institute merancang "Just Transition Toolbox" untuk memberikan dukungan bagi para praktisi di kawasan penghasil batu bara di seluruh dunia yang menggambarkan tantangan dan peluang dalam transisi berkelanjutan untuk audiens global. Toolbox Transisi Berkeadilan ini terdiri dari informasi tentang pengembangan strategi, rekomendasi untuk struktur tata kelola, mendorong lapangan kerja berkelanjutan, menunjukan pilihan teknologi dan menyoroti rehabilitasi lingkungan dan penggunaan kembali situs dan infrastruktur terkait batubara. Toolbox ini dikembangkan berdasarkan seperangkat alat yang dirancang oleh Wuppertal Institute melalui kerja sama dengan berbagai pemangku kepentingan atas inisiatif Uni Eropa untuk daerah-daerah kawasan Batubara yang berada dalam masa transisi. Toolbox ini juga menampilkan pelajaran yang diambil dari kawasan batu bara mitra SPIPA seperti India, Indonesia, Afrika Selatan, Jepang, Korea Selatan, Kanada, dan Amerika Serikat. Akronim SPIPA adalah kependekan dari "Kemitraan Strategis untuk Implementasi Perjanjian Persetujuan Paris" pada program UE-BMU yang dibiayai bersama oleh GIZ.
Urban GHG emissions and resource flows : methods for understanding the complex functioning of cities
(2015)
This paper sums up the recent developments in concepts and methods being used to measure the impacts of cities on environmental sustainability. It differentiates between a dominant trend in research literature that concentrates on the accounting and allocation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy use to cities, and a re-emergence of studies focusing on the direct and indirect urban material and resource flows. The availability of reliable data and standard protocols is greater in the GHG accounting field and continues to grow rapidly.