Zukünftige Energie- und Industriesysteme
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It is now widely recognized that effective communication and demand-side policies for alternative energy require sound knowledge of preferences and determinants of demand of the public and consumers. To date, public attitudes towards new transport technologies have been studied under very different conceptual frameworks. This paper gives an overview of the various conceptual frameworks and methodologies used, where four main approaches can be distinguished: general attitudinal surveys, risk perception studies, non-market economic valuation studies, and other approaches such as those based on semiotic theory. We then review the findings of the recent literature on acceptance, attitudes and preferences for hydrogen and fuelcell end-use technologies, focusing on vehicles. These studies are then contrasted with related research into alternative fuel vehicles. The paper finally discusses the main trends in research and avenues for further work in this field. We recommend, among other things, the use of approaches that build knowledge and familiarity with the technology prior to the exploration of attitudes, and the set up of studies that take a whole-systems perspective of hydrogen technologies and that look at hydrogen in the context of other competing clean technologies.
Transponder-based Aircraft Detection Lighting Systems (ADLS) are increasingly used in wind turbines to limit beacon operation times, reduce light emissions, and increase wind energy acceptance. The systems use digital technologies such as receivers of digital transponder signals, LTE/5G, and other information and communication technology. The use of ADLS will be mandatory in Germany both for new and existing wind turbines with a height of >100 m from 2023 (onshore) and 2024 (offshore), so a nationwide rollout is expected to start during 2022. To fully realize the benefits while avoiding risks and bottlenecks, a thorough and holistic understanding of the efforts required and the impacts caused along the life cycle of an ADLS is essential. Therefore, this study presents the first multi-aspect holistic evaluation of an ADLS. A framework for evaluating digital applications in the energy sector, previously developed by the authors, is refined and applied. The framework is based on multi-criteria analysis (MCA), life cycle assessment (LCA), and expert interviews. On an aggregated level, the MCA results show an overall positive impact from all stakeholders’ perspectives. Most positive impacts are found in the society and politics category, while most negative impacts are of technical nature. The LCA of the ADLS reveals a slightly negative impact, but this impact is negligible when compared to the total life cycle impact of the wind turbines of which the ADLS is a part. Besides the aggregated evaluation, detailed information on potential implementation risks, bottlenecks, and levers for life cycle improvement are presented. In particular, the worldwide scarcity of the required semiconductors, in combination with the general lack of technicians in Germany, lead to the authors’ recommendation for a limited prolongation of the planned rollout period. This period should be used by decision-makers to ensure the availability of technical components and installation capacities. A pooling of ADLS installations in larger regions could improve plannability for manufacturers and installers. Furthermore, an ADLS implementation in other countries could be supported by an early holistic evaluation using the presented framework.
The development of digital technologies is accelerating, enabling increasingly profound changes in increasingly short time periods. The changes affect almost all areas of the economy as well as society. The energy sector has already seen some effects of digitalization, but more drastic changes are expected in the next decades. Besides the very positive impacts on costs, system stability, and environmental effects, potential obstacles and risks need to be addressed to ensure that advantages can be exploited while adverse effects are avoided. A good understanding of available and future digital applications from different stakeholders' perspectives is necessary. This study proposes a framework for the holistic evaluation of digital applications in the energy sector. The framework consists of a combination of well-established methods, namely the multi-criteria analysis (MCA), the life cycle assessment (LCA), and expert interviews. The objective is to create transparency on benefits, obstacles, and risks as a basis for societal and political discussions and to supply the necessary information for the sustainable development and implementation of digital applications. The novelty of the proposed framework is the specific combination of the three methods and its setup to enable sound applicability to the wide variety of digital applications in the energy sector. The framework is tested subsequently on the example of the German smart meter roll-out. The results reveal that, on the one hand, the smart meter roll-out clearly offers the potential to increase the system stability and decrease the carbon emission intensity of the energy system. Therefore, the overall evaluation from an environmental perspective is positive. However, on the other hand, close attention needs to be paid to the required implementation and operational effort, the IT (information technology) and data security, the added value for the user, the social acceptance, and the realization of energy savings. Therefore, the energy utility perspective in particular results in an overall negative evaluation. Several areas with a need for action are identified. Overall, the proposed framework proves to be suitable for the holistic evaluation of this digital application.
The main objective of this article is to evaluate CO2 mitigation potential and to calculate costs avoided by the use of different CO2 mitigation technologies in China's cement sector, namely energy efficiency improvements, use of alternative fuels, clinker substitution and carbon capture and storage (CCS). Three scenarios are designed based on the projection of cement output and technology development over the next 40 years (2010–2050). 2.5, 4.7 and 4.3 Gt tonnes of CO2 will be saved totally in basic scenario and two low carbon scenarios up to 2050. By comparing these technologies along the scenarios, it can be concluded that CO2 emissions can mainly be reduced by energy efficiency improvements and use of alternative fuels. Clinker substitution, which reduces the clinker-to-cement ratio as well as energy intensity, results in significant cost advantages. CCS, including post-combustion capture and oxy-fuel combustion capture, could play an important role in the capture of CO2 in the cement industry, and is expected to be in commercial use by 2030.
The study presents the results of an integrated assessment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the power plant sector in Germany, with special emphasis on the competition with renewable energy technologies. Assessment dimensions comprise technical, economic and environmental aspects, long-term scenario analysis, the role of stakeholders and public acceptance and regulatory issues. The results lead to the overall conclusion that there might not necessarily be a need to focus additionally on CCS in the power plant sector. Even in case of ambitious climate protection targets, current energy policy priorities (expansion of renewable energies and combined heat and power plants as well as enhanced energy productivity) result in a limited demand for CCS. In case that the large energy saving potential aimed for can only partly be implemented, the rising gap in CO2 reduction could only be closed by setting up a CCS-maximum strategy. In this case, up to 22% (41 GW) of the totally installed load in 2050 could be based on CCS. Assuming a more realistic scenario variant applying CCS to only 20 GW or lower would not be sufficient to reach the envisaged climate targets in the electricity sector. Furthermore, the growing public opposition against CO2 storage projects appears as a key barrier, supplemented by major uncertainties concerning the estimation of storage potentials, the long-term cost development as well as the environmental burdens which abound when applying a life-cycle approach. However, recently, alternative applications are being increasingly considered–that is the capture of CO2 at industrial point sources and biomass based energy production (electricity, heat and fuels) where assessment studies for exploring the potentials, limits and requirements for commercial use are missing so far. Globally, CCS at power plants might be an important climate protection technology: coal-consuming countries such as China and India are increasingly moving centre stage into the debate. Here, similar investigations on the development and the integration of both, CCS and renewable energies, into the individual energy system structures of such countries would be reasonable.
If the current energy policy priorities are retained, there may be no need to focus additionally on carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the power plant sector of Germany. This applies even in the case of ambitious climate protection targets, according to the results of the presented integrated assessment study. These cover a variety of aspects: Firstly, the technology is not expected to become available on a large scale in Germany before 2025. Secondly, if renewable energies and combined heat and power are expanded further and energy productivity is enhanced, there is likely to be only a limited demand for CCS power plants, as a scenario analysis of CCS deployment in Germany shows. Thirdly, cost analysis using the learning curve approach shows that the electricity generation costs of renewable electricity approach those of CCS power plants. This leads to the consequence that, from 2020, several renewable technologies may well be in a position to offer electricity at a cheaper rate than CCS power plants. In addition, a review of new life cycle assessments for CO2 separation in the power plant sector indicates that the greenhouse gas emissions from 1 kW h of electricity generated by first-generation CCS power plants could only be reduced by 68 % to 87 % (95 % in individual cases). Finally, a cautious, conservative estimate of the effective German CO2 storage capacity of approximately 5 billion tonnes of CO2 is calculated, including a fluctuation range yielding values between 4 and 15 billion tonnes of CO2. Therefore, the total CO2 emissions caused by large point sources in Germany could be stored for 12 years (basic value) or for 8 or 33 years (sensitivity values).
Prospects of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in India's power sector : an integrated assessment
(2014)
Objective: The aim of the present article is to conduct an integrated assessment in order to explore whether CCS could be a viable technological option for significantly reducing future CO2 emissions in India. Methods: In this paper, an integrated approach covering five assessment dimensions is chosen. However, each dimension is investigated using specific methods (graphical abstract).
Results: The most crucial precondition that must be met is a reliable storage capacity assessment based on site-specific geological data since only rough figures concerning the theoretical capacity exist at present. Our projection of different trends of coal-based power plant capacities up to 2050 ranges between 13 and 111 Gt of CO2 that may be captured from coal-fired power plants to be built by 2050. If very optimistic assumptions about the country's CO2 storage potential are applied, 75 Gt of CO2 could theoretically be stored as a result of matching these sources with suitable sinks. If a cautious approach is taken by considering the country's effective storage potential, only a fraction may potentially be sequestered. In practice, this potential will decrease further with the impact of technical, legal, economic and social acceptance factors. Further constraints may be the delayed commercial availability of CCS in India, a significant barrier to achieving the economic viability of CCS, an expected net maximum reduction rate of the power plant’s greenhouse gas emissions of 71-74%, an increase of most other environmental and social impacts, and a lack of governmental, industrial or societal CCS advocates.
Conclusion and practice implications: Several preconditions need to be fulfilled if CCS is to play a future role in reducing CO2 emissions in India, the most crucial one being to determine reliable storage capacity figures. In order to overcome these barriers, the industrialised world would need to make a stronger commitment in terms of CCS technology demonstration, cooperation and transfer to emerging economies like India. The integrated assessment might also be extended by a comparison with other low-carbon technology options to draw fully valid conclusions on the most suitable solution for a sustainable future energy supply in India.
Prospects of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in China's power sector : an integrated assessment
(2015)
Objective: The aim of the present article is to conduct an integrated assessment in order to explore whether CCS could be a viable technological option for significantly reducing future CO2 emissions in China. Methods: In this paper, an integrated approach covering five assessment dimensions is chosen. Each dimension is investigated using specific methods (graphical abstract). Results: The most crucial precondition that must be met is a reliable storage capacity assessment based on site-specific geological data. Our projection of different trends of coal-based power plant capacities up to 2050 ranges between 34 and 221 Gt of CO2 that may be captured from coal-fired power plants to be built by 2050. If very optimistic assumptions about the country’s CO2 storage potential are applied, 192 Gt of CO2 could theoretically be stored as a result of matching these sources with suitable sinks. If a cautious approach is taken, this figure falls to 29 Gt of CO2. In practice, this potential will decrease further with the impact of technical, legal, economic and social acceptance factors. Further constraints may be the delayed commercial availability of CCS in China; a significant barrier to achieving the economic viability of CCS due to a currently non-existing nation-wide CO2 pricing scheme that generates a sufficiently strong price signal; an expected life-cycle reduction rate of the power plant's greenhouse gas emissions of 59-60%; and an increase in most other negative environmental and social impacts. Conclusion and practice implications: Most experts expect a striking dominance of coal-fired power generation in the country's electricity sector, even if the recent trend towards a flattened deployment of coal capacity and reduced annual growth rates of coal-fired generation proves to be true in the future. In order to reduce fossil fuel-related CO2 emissions to a level that would be consistent with the long-term climate protection target of the international community to which China is increasingly committing itself, this option may require the introduction of CCS. However, a precondition for opting for CCS would be finding robust solutions to the constraints highlighted in this article. Furthermore, a comparison with other low-carbon technology options may be useful in drawing completely valid conclusions on the economic, ecological and social viability of CCS in a low-carbon policy environment. The assessment dimensions should be integrated into macro-economic optimisation models by combining qualitative with quantitative modelling, and the flexible operation of CCS power plants should be analysed in view of a possible role of CCS for balancing fluctuating renewable energies.
This article presents an integrated assessment conducted in order to explore whether carbon capture and storage (CCS) could be a viable technological option for significantly reducing future CO2 emissions in South Africa. The methodological approach covers a commercial availability analysis, an analysis of the long-term usable CO2 storage potential (based on storage capacity assessment, energy scenario analysis and source-sink matching), an economic and ecological assessment and a stakeholder analysis. The findings show, that a reliable storage capacity assessment is needed, since only rough figures concerning the effective capacity currently exist. Further constraints on the fast deployment of CCS may be the delayed commercial availability of CCS, significant barriers to increasing the economic viability of CCS, an expected net maximum reduction rate of the power plant's greenhouse gas emissions of 67%-72%, an increase in other environmental and social impacts, and low public awareness of CCS. One precondition for opting for CCS would be to find robust solutions to these constraints, taking into account that CCS could potentially conflict with other important policy objectives, such as affordable electricity rates to give the whole population access to electricity.
The German government has set itself the target of reducing the country's GHG emissions by between 80 and 95% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels. Alongside energy efficiency, renewable energy sources are set to play the main role in this transition. However, the large-scale deployment of renewable energies is expected to cause increased demand for critical mineral resources. The aim of this article is therefore to determine whether the transformation of the German energy system by 2050 ("Energiewende") may possibly be restricted by a lack of critical minerals, focusing primarily on the power sector (generating, transporting and storing electricity from renewable sources). For the relevant technologies, we create roadmaps describing a number of conceivable quantitative market developments in Germany. Estimating the current and future specific material demand of the options selected and projecting them along a range of long-term energy scenarios allows us to assess potential medium- or long-term mineral resource restrictions. The main conclusion we draw is that the shift towards an energy system based on renewable sources that is currently being pursued is principally compatible with the geological availability and supply of mineral resources. In fact, we identified certain sub-technologies as being critical with regard to potential supply risks, owing to dependencies on a small number of supplier countries and competing uses. These sub-technologies are certain wind power plants requiring neodymium and dysprosium, thin-film CIGS photovoltaic cells using indium and selenium, and large-scale redox flow batteries using vanadium. However, non-critical alternatives to these technologies do indeed exist. The likelihood of supplies being restricted can be decreased further by cooperating even more closely with companies in the supplier countries and their governments, and by establishing greater resource efficiency and recyclability as key elements of technology development.