Zukünftige Energie- und Industriesysteme
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Increasing urbanisation and climate change belong to the greatest challenges of the 21st century. A high share of global greenhouse gas emissions are estimated to originate in urban areas (40 % to 78 % according to UN Habitat 2010). Therefore, low carbon city strategies and concepts implicate large greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potentials. At the same time, with high population and infrastructure densities as well as concentrated economic activities, cities are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and need to adapt. Scarce natural resources further constrain the leeway for long-term, sustainable urban development. The Low Carbon Future Cities (LCFC) project aims at tapping this three-dimensional challenge and will develop an integrated strategy / roadmap, balancing low carbon development, gains in resource efficiency and adaptation to climate change. The study focuses on two pilot regions - one in China (Wuxi) and one in Germany (Düsseldorf+) - and is conducted by a German-Chinese research team supported by the German Stiftung Mercator. The paper gives an overview of first outcomes of the analysis of the status quo and assessment of the most likely developments regarding GHG emissions, climate impacts and resource use in Wuxi. The project developed an emission inventory for Wuxi to identify key sectors for further analysis and low carbon scenarios. The future development of energy demand and related CO2 emissions in 2030 were simulated in the current policy scenario (CPS), using five different sub-models. Selected aspects of Wuxi's current material and water flows were analysed and modelled for energy transformation and the building sector. Current and future climate impacts and vulnerability were investigated. Recent climatic changes and resulting damages were analysed, expected changes in temperature and precipitation in the coming four decades were projected using ensembles of three General Circulation Models. Although Wuxi's government started a path to implement a low carbon plan, the first results show that more ambitious efforts are needed to overcome the challenges faced.
The global land area required to meet the German consumption of agricultural products for food and non-food use was quantified, and the related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, particularly those induced by land-use changes in tropical countries, were estimated. Two comprehensive business-as-usual scenarios describe the development corridor of biomass for non-food use in terms of energetic and non-energetic purposes. In terms of land use, Germany was already a net importer of agricultural land in 2004, and the net additional land required by 2030 is estimated to comprise 2.5–3.4 Mha. This is mainly due to biofuel demand driven by current policy targets. Meeting the required biodiesel import demand would result in an additional GWP of 23–37 Tg of CO2 equivalents through direct and indirect land-use changes. Alternative scenario elements outline the potential options for reducing Germany's land requirement, which reflect future global per capita availability.
Integrated systems analysis
(2007)
This book presents important new research on applied eco-efficiency concepts throughout Europe. The aim of eco-efficiency is to achieve market-based measures of environmental protection, in order to enhance the prospects for sustainable development and achieve positive economic and ecological benefits. The distinguished authors discuss a number of themes surrounding eco-efficiency including the necessary conditions for technological dissemination and ecological modernization, and the role of government in enabling businesses and society to participate actively in this process. In particular, they highlight the application of existing European-based policies concerning material flows and energy. The authors also investigate some new concepts of sustainable development and provide a useful introduction to material flows analysis. In further chapters they study the emerging regulatory policies for eco-efficiency, and examine the issues of sustainable business and consumption strategies.
Bridging the data gap
(2004)