Zukünftige Energie- und Industriesysteme
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In October 2014, the European Council agreed on a target of improving overall energy efficiency by at least 27 per cent by 2030. According to the European Council's conclusions, this target should not be translated into nationally binding targets. Nevertheless individual Member States are free to set higher national objectives if desired. However, it is difficult to assess the degree of ambition of a national target because so far not much light has been shed upon the exact size of the untapped efficiency potentials.
This paper provides an in-depth analysis and comparison of existing studies on energy efficiency potentials in the European Union's (EU) Member States by 2030. It includes a structured overview of the results, information on the quality of the available data and suggestions for improvement.
The review shows that comprehensive studies on national energy efficiency potentials are rare and hardly comparable. The existing studies agree on the existence of significant potentials for energy efficiency. Their outcomes, however, vary significantly in terms of national levels. Assuming low policy intensity, energy savings between 10 and 28 per cent could be realised by 2030 compared to a baseline development, in the case of high policy intensity 7-44 per cent. Technical energy efficiency potentials in the different EU Member States are estimated at 14-52 per cent. On average, energy savings of 27 per cent by 2030 appear to be feasible with significant policy effort. We conclude that the deviation in Member States' energy efficiency potentials resulting from different studies represents an indication of the so far poor quality of underlying data. In order to allow for a concretisation of efficiency potential estimates, the comparability and detail of information sources should be improved.
The future belongs to the youth, but do they really have a say in it? Learning processes with regard to a successful socio-ecological change must start in childhood and adolescence in order to succeed in social transformation. The youth cannot be a passive part in a changing society - they have to be actively included in its design. When allowed to participate, young people can make important and effective contributions - which should not be reduced to sub-projects and opportunity structures. In a socio-political context, participation means involvement, collaboration, and commitment. In the context of intra- and inter-generational equity, as the core part of sustainable development, participation strategies should be developed that allow for a permanent and purposeful involvement of children and adolescents. Participation of young people is an important and appropriate step in strengthening those who are so strongly affected by the planning processes but are otherwise powerless. A successful involvement and participation of non-professional actors requires a target group-oriented method, a supportive culture of participation, as well as clarity and decision latitude. Abiding by these rules leads to central results.
Decarbonisation of energy systems requires deep structural change. The purpose of this research was to analyse the rates of change taking place in the energy systems of the European Union (EU), in the light of the EU's climate change mitigation objectives. Trends on indicators such as energy intensity and carbon intensity of energy were compared with decadal benchmarks derived from deep decarbonisation scenarios for the electricity, residential, transport, and industry sectors. The methodology applied provides a useful and informative approach to tracking decarbonisation of energy systems. The results show that the EU has made significant progress in decarbonising its energy systems. On a number of indicators assessed the results show that a significant acceleration from historical levels is required in order to reach the rates of change seen on the future benchmarks for deep decarbonisation. The methodology applied provides an example of how the research community and international organisations could complement the transparency mechanism developed by the Paris Agreement on climate change, to improve understanding of progress toward low-carbon energy systems.
Energy of the future? : Sustainable mobility through fuel cells and H2 ; Shell hydrogen study
(2017)
Over the years Shell has produced a number of scenario studies on key energy issues. These have included studies on important energy consumption sectors such as passenger cars and commercial vehicles (lorries and buses) and the supply of energy and heat to private households, as well as studies on the state of and prospects for individual energy sources and fuels, including biofuels, natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas.
Shell has been involved in hydrogen production as well as in research, development and application for decades, with a dedicated business unit, Shell Hydrogen. Now, in cooperation with the Wuppertal Institute in Germany, Shell has conducted a study on hydrogen as a future energy source. The study looks at the current state of hydrogen supply path- ways and hydrogen application technologies and explores the potential and prospects for hydrogen as an energy source in the global energy system of tomorrow. The study focuses on the use of hydrogen in road transport and specifically in fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), but it also examines non-automotive resp. stationary applications.
How is it possible to increase homeowners' insulation activity? Answering this question is key to successful policies regarding energy-efficient buildings worldwide. In Germany, doubling today's insulation rate of about 1% is an important element for reaching the government's target of an 80% reduction in energy demand in the building sector by 2050.
This thesis uses an agent-based model analysis to improve the understanding of homeowners' insulation activity and to explore new approaches aiming at its increase in Germany. Two agent-based models were developed and utilized. The first model was developed mainly based on insights derived from a structured literature review. The second emerged from the previous one, incorporating the results of an online survey conducted among 275 homeowners.
The results indicate that homeowners' economic means have little influence on their decision to install insulation. Instead, their insulation decision-making is mostly affected by situational factors and their attitudes towards insulation. Situational factors, such as the condition of the building, are important because they initiate homeowners' individual decision-making processes on insulation. The simulation results show that improving homeowners’ attitudes about insulation by providing information has a comparatively low potential for increasing their insulation activity. Out of the policy options this thesis explored, the introduction of an obligation to insulate the walls within one year after change of house ownership was found to have the greatest impact on homeowners' insulation activity.
One of the main objectives of impact assessments is to identify potentially significant impacts. However, determining this significance has received very limited attention as a procedural step in social impact assessments. Consequently, only limited research and documentation exists on approaches, survey tools and evaluation methods, especially with regard to participatory approaches and combined participatory-technical approaches. This study aims to address this research gap by developing and applying a joined participatory and technical impact significance evaluation. The approach is applied in a case study which analysed the livelihood impacts of the large-scale concentrated solar power plant NOORO I in Ouarzazate, Morocco.
The analysis shows that although different approaches and significance criteria must be applied when involving both local stakeholders and experts, the linked analysis offers more robust results and an improved basis for decision-making. Furthermore, it was observed in the case study that impacts affecting the social, cultural and political spheres were more often considered significant than impacts affecting the physical and material livelihood dimensions. Regarding sustainability assessments of large-scale renewable energy plants, these findings underline the importance (as for other large-scale infrastructure developments) of placing greater emphasis on the inclusion of social aspects in impact assessments.
We present an approach to simulate climate and energy policy for the EU, using a flexible and modular agent-based modelling approach and a toolbox, called the Energy Modelling Laboratory (EMLab). The paper shortly reviews core challenges and approaches for modelling climate and energy policy in light of the energy transition. Afterwards, we present an agent-based model of investment in power generation that has addressed a variety of European energy policy questions. We describe the development of a flexible model core as well as modules on carbon and renewables policies, capacity mechanisms, investment behaviour and representation of intermittent renewables. We present an overview of modelling results, ongoing projects, a case study on current reforms of the EU ETS, and we show their relevance in the EU context.
Various electricity generation technologies using different primary energy sources are available. Many published studies compare the costs of these technologies. However, most of those studies only consider plant-level costs and do not fully take into account additional costs that societies may face in using these technologies. This article reviews the literature on the costs of electricity generation technologies, aiming to determine which types of costs are relevant from a societal point of view when comparing generation technologies. The paper categorises the relevant types of costs, differentiating between plant-level, system and external costs as the main categories. It discusses the relevance of each type of cost for each generation technology. The findings suggest that several low-carbon electricity generation technologies exhibit lower social costs per kWh than the currently dominant technologies using fossil fuels. More generally, the findings emphasise the importance of taking not only plant-level costs, but also system and external costs, into account when comparing electricity generation technologies from a societal point of view. The article intends to inform both policymakers and energy system modellers, the latter who may strive to include all relevant types of costs in their models.