Zukünftige Energie- und Industriesysteme
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Klimasteuern in Deutschland (eingebunden in die EU) : Nutzen für die Entwicklungszusammenarbeit
(2021)
Die Publikation soll es Fachleuten aus Drittstaaten ermöglichen, aus den Erfahrungen, die in Deutschland mit "Klimasteuern" gemacht worden sind, Anregungen für die eigene Steuerpolitik mitzunehmen.
"Klima-Steuern" sollen Preisrelationen für Wirtschaftssubjekte so ändern, dass klimafreundliche Optionen profitabler werden. Dabei wird ein sehr weites Verständnis von "Klimasteuern" zugrunde gelegt. Nach methodischen und begrifflichen Vorüberlegungen wird eine Art "Architektur" für mögliche Ansatzpunkte solcher Steuern bereitgestellt. Exemplifiziert wird dieses moderne Verständnis von "Klimasteuern" in den Sektoren Transport, Gebäude, Elektrizität (Verbrauch und Herstellung) sowie Landwirtschaft.
Die nationale Wasserstoffstrategie der Bundesregierung beinhaltet zentrale Zielkonflikte: Stärkung der deutschen Wirtschaft versus hohe Importquote, günstigere Produktionskosten im Ausland versus höhere Wertschöpfung durch Produktion im Inland. Vor diesem Hintergrund wird in diesem Beitrag diskutiert, wie groß die Kostenunterschiede ausfallen, welche Bedeutung die Transportkosten haben und welche Reboundeffekte bei Importen aus Nordafrika zu beachten sind.
Roadmaps for India's energy future foresee that coal power will continue to play a considerable role until the middle of the 21st century. Among other options, carbon capture and storage (CCS) is being considered as a potential technology for decarbonising the power sector. Consequently, it is important to quantify the relative benefits and trade-offs of coal-CCS in comparison to its competing renewable power sources from multiple sustainability perspectives. In this paper, we assess coal-CCS pathways in India up to 2050 and compare coal-CCS with conventional coal, solar PV and wind power sources through an integrated assessment approach coupled with a nexus perspective (energy-cost-climate-water nexus). Our levelized costs assessment reveals that coal-CCS is expensive and significant cost reductions would be needed for CCS to compete in the Indian power market. In addition, although carbon pricing could make coal-CCS competitive in relation to conventional coal power plants, it cannot influence the lack of competitiveness of coal-CCS with respect to renewables. From a climate perspective, CCS can significantly reduce the life cycle GHG emissions of conventional coal power plants, but renewables are better positioned than coal-CCS if the goal is ambitious climate change mitigation. Our water footprint assessment reveals that coal-CCS consumes an enormous volume of water resources in comparison to conventional coal and, in particular, to renewables. To conclude, our findings highlight that coal-CCS not only suffers from typical new technology development related challenges - such as a lack of technical potential assessments and necessary support infrastructure, and high costs - but also from severe resource constraints (especially water) in an era of global warming and the competition from outperforming renewable power sources. Our study, therefore, adds a considerable level of techno-economic and environmental nexus specificity to the current debate about coal-based large-scale CCS and the low carbon energy transition in emerging and developing economies in the Global South.
Water availability plays an important role in the expansion planning of utility-scale solar power plants, especially in the arid regions of the Middle East and North Africa. Although these power plants usually account for only a small fraction of local water demand, competition for water resources between communities, farmers, companies, and power suppliers is already emerging and is likely to intensify in future. Despite this, to date there has been a lack of comprehensive studies analyzing interdependencies and potential conflicts between energy and water at local level. This study addresses this research gap and examines the linkages between water resources and energy technologies at local level based on a case study conducted in Ouarzazate, Morocco, where one of the largest solar power complexes in the world was recently completed. To better understand the challenges faced by the region in light of increased water demand and diminishing water supply, a mixed-method research design was applied to integrate the knowledge of local stakeholders through a series of workshops. In a first step, regional socio-economic water demand scenarios were developed and, in a second step, water saving measures to avoid critical development pathways were systematically evaluated using a participatory multi-criteria evaluation approach. The results are a set of water demand scenarios for the region and a preferential ranking of water saving measures that could be drawn upon to support decision-making relating to energy and water development in the region.
Flexible, system-oriented operating strategies are becoming increasingly important in terms of achieving a climate-neutral energy system transformation. Solid-oxide electrolysis (SOEC) can play an important role in the production of green synthesis gas from renewable energy in the future. Therefore, it is important to investigate the extent to which SOEC can be used flexibly and which feedback effects and constraints must be taken into account. In this study, we derived a specific load profile from an energy turnaround scenario that supports the energy system. SOEC short-stacks were operated and we investigated the impact that the load profile has on electrical stack performance and stack degradation as well as the product gas composition by means of Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy. The stacks could follow the grid-related requirement profiles of secondary control power and minute reserves very well with transition times of less than two minutes per 25% of relative power. Only short-term disturbances of the H2/CO ratio were observed during transitions due to the adjustment of feed gases. No elevated degradation effects resulting from flexible operation were apparent over 1300 h, although other causes of degradation were present.
Water and energy are two pivotal areas for future sustainable development, with complex linkages existing between the two sectors. These linkages require special attention in the context of the energy transition. Against this background, this paper analyses the role of water availability in the development of solar thermal and photovoltaic power plants for the case of the Draa Valley in southern Morocco. Located in a semi-arid to arid mountainous area, the Drâa Valley faces high water stress - a situation expected to worsen due to climate change. At the same time, the region has one of the greatest potentials for solar energy in the world. To examine whether limited water availability could accelerate or delay the implementation of solar thermal and photovoltaic power plants, this paper compares regional water availability and demand in the Draa Valley for different scenarios, paying particular attention to potential socio-economic development pathways. The Water Evaluation and Planning System software is applied to allocate the water resources in the study region. The water supply is modelled under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate scenario, while the water demand for the Drâa Valley is modelled for a combination of three socio-economic and two energy scenarios. The climate scenario describes a significant decrease in water availability by 2050, while the socio-economic and energy scenarios show an increase in water demand. The results demonstrate that during a sequence of dry years the reservoirs water availability is reduced and shortages in water supply can result in high levels of unmet demand. If this situation occurs, oasis farming, water for drinking and energy production could compete directly with each other for water resources. The energy scenarios indicate that the use of dry cooling technologies in concentrated solar power and photovoltaic hybrid systems could be one option for reducing competition for the scarce water resources in the region. However, given that energy generation accounts for only a small share of the regional water demand, the results also suggest that socio-economic demand reduction, especially in the agricultural sector, for example by reducing the cultivated area, will most likely become necessary.
A clear understanding of socio-technical interdependencies and a structured vision are prerequisites for fostering and steering a transition to a fully renewables-based energy system. To facilitate such understanding, a phase model for the renewable energy (RE) transition in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries has been developed and applied to the country case of Lebanon. It is designed to support the strategy development and governance of the energy transition and to serve as a guide for decision makers.
Lebanon's energy transition towards REs stands at a very early stage of the first transformation phase. Although abundant solar and wind energy potential does exist, the pathway towards a 100% renewables energy seems very challenging for Lebanon, as a consequence of highly unstable political conditions. The most pressing concern for Lebanon's electricity sector is combating the country's fiscal imbalance, while providing secure and reliable electricity supply. At the operational level, Lebanon's grid network requires significant investments to rebuild, retrofit, and expand the overall capacity and energy efficiency improvements.
The need to strengthen the energy system after the political turmoil of the civil war is likely to offer several long-term opportunities, such as developing the economy, reducing environmental pollution, and increasing the energy security. In order to move forward into the first phase, Lebanon needs to improve the framework conditions for REs and implement its visions. It needs to support the market development in a realistic timeframe, where structural reforms represent the highest priority.
The results of the analysis along the transition phase model towards 100% renewables energy are intended to stimulate and support the discussion on Lebanon's future energy system by providing an overarching guiding vision for the energy transition and the development of appropriate policies.
Especially in the arid areas of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), water availability plays an important role in the expansion planning of industrial-scale solar power plants. Although power plants may account for only a very small portion of local water demand, competition for water with other sectors is expected to increase when water resources are insufficient for meeting local needs. This can lead to conflicts between different users (such as communities, farmers, tourism, businesses and utilities). Despite the increasing attention on the water-energy nexus, comprehensive studies analysing the interdependencies and potential conflicts between energy and water at the local level are absent.
To examine the linkages between water resources and energy technologies at the local level, this case study was selected because Morocco is one of the countries most affected by water scarcity and, at the same time, it is also one of the most promising countries in North Africa for the development of renewable energies and offers excellent conditions for solar and wind power plants. Nevertheless, the country's electricity system is still largely based on conventional energy sources, and the country is more than 95% dependent on energy imports. To strengthen the country's energy security and reduce the financial burden associated with energy imports, Morocco is pursuing an ambitious renewable energy expansion strategy: by 2020, around 42% of the national electricity demand should be met by renewable energies. In view of Morocco's ambitious plans, it is particularly important to identify the potential conflicts and synergies resulting from the expansion of renewable energies in relation to the water sector.
The energy sector today accounts for about 10% to 15% of global freshwater withdrawal. Most water in the energy sector is used for generating electricity, especially for cooling processes in thermal power plants. At the same time the demand for electricity is expected to increase significantly due to population growth and economic development in emerging and developing economies. Growing demand is also driven by electrification strategies pursued by industrialized countries to decarbonize their economies. With the global demand for electricity expected to increase significantly in the coming decades also the water demand in the power sector is expected to rise. However, due to the on-going global energy transition, the future structure of the power supply - and hence future water demand for power generation - is subject to high levels of uncertainty because the volume of water required for electricity generation varies significantly depending on both the generation technology and cooling system. In light of these challenges the objective of this analysis is to provide more systematic and robust answers in terms of the impacts of different decarbonization strategies in the electricity sector on water demand at global and regional level. The focus is on operational water use for electricity generation.
Das vorliegende Papier zeigt, welche Weichen die Politik stellen muss, um den Gebäudebestand bis 2045 klimaneutral zu machen. Im Fokus stehen höhere Effizienzanforderungen für Bestands- und Neubauten, ein schnellerer Ausstieg aus Gas- und Ölheizungen, gleichzeitig aber auch höhere Anreize und bessere Unterstützung für Gebäudebesitzende sowie warmmietenneutrale Sanierungen, um Mietende vor einer Überlastung zu schützen.
Dabei müssen bestehende Gebäude so renoviert werden, dass sie ähnlich wie Neubauten kaum noch Energie verbrauchen. Gleichzeitig müssen Heizenergie und Stromversorgung komplett auf erneuerbare Energien umgestellt werden. Zudem muss durch intelligentere Nutzungskonzepte der Anstieg der Gebäudeflächen gebremst werden. Die kommende Legislaturperiode ist somit entscheidend, damit Klimaneutralität im Gebäudesektor bis spätestens 2045 erreicht werden kann.
Dieser Zukunftsimpuls schlägt daher ein 14 Maßnahmen umfassendes und konsistentes Politikpaket vor. Neben den oben genannten Maßnahmen des Förderns und Forderns gehören dazu insbesondere klare Vorgaben für eine bessere energetische Sanierung und ein deutliches Ziel für den Ausstieg aus fossilen Gas- und Ölheizungen, die allen Beteiligten Sicherheit geben. Individuelle Sanierungsfahrpläne für alle heute noch nicht effizienten Gebäude bis spätestens 2028 und kommunale Wärmepläne helfen den Gebäudebesitzenden bei der technischen Entwicklung ihrer Gebäude und der Investitionsplanung. Häufig sind es die nicht-monetären Hemmnisse, die maßgeblich für die geringe Sanierungsrate sind. One-Stop-Shops verringern die Hemmschwelle Maßnahmen umzusetzen. Darüber hinaus wirkt Quartiersmanagement unterstützend und hilft Kräfte zu bündeln.
A clear understanding of socio-technical interdependencies and a structured vision are prerequisites for fostering and steering a transition to a fully renewables-based energy system. To facilitate such understanding, a phase model for the renewable energy transition in MENA countries has been developed and applied to the country case of Iraq. It is designed to support the strategy development and governance of the energy transition and to serve as a guide for decision makers.
The transition towards renewable energies is still at a very early stage in Iraq. Despite the drop in renewable technology costs over the last decade and the increasing deployment of renewables in the MENA region, the pathway towards renewable energies seems to be challenging for Iraq. This is attributable to the country's political instability and the dominant economic role played by the fossil fuel sector. The most pressing concern for Iraq's electricity sector is the need to secure a constant electricity supply. At operational level, Iraq's electricity infrastructure requires significant investment to rebuilt, retro-fit and expand its overall capacity and to improve efficiencies.
Yet, the need to rebuild the energy system after the war and the subsequent violent conflicts could offer an opportunity for a transition towards renewables that would benefit Iraq in the short term and also provide a long-term economic development perspective. To take advantage of this opportunity, Iraq needs to improve the framework conditions for renewable energies and raise awareness about the benefits it offers. Renewable energy regulations need to be introduced, market development supported, a realistic timeframe for the transition process established and an appropriate and reliable legal framework developed. The results of the analysis along the transition phase model towards 100% renewables are intended to stimulate and support the discussion about Iraq's future energy system by providing an overarching guiding vision for the energy transition and the development of appropriate policy strategies.
A clear understanding of socio-technical interdependencies and a structured vision are prerequisites for fostering and steering a transition to a fully renewables-based energy system. To facilitate such understanding, a phase model for the renewable energy transition in MENA countries has been developed and applied to the country case of Egypt. It is designed to support the strategy development and governance of the energy transition and to serve as a guide for decision makers.
Egypt, with its abundant solar and wind energy potential, has excellent preconditions to embark on the pathway towards a 100% renewable energy system. The country has successfully taken its first steps in this direction by attracting international finance and implementing several large-scale solar and wind projects. Yet, while Egypt has made significant progress, increased efforts are still required if the country aims to proceed towards a fully renewables-based system. The stronger system integration of renewable energies requires, for example, an alignment of regulations for the electricity, mobility and heat sectors. In this context, Egypt would be well advised to develop and implement an overall strategy for the energy transition that includes not only electricity generation but all sectors.
By placing a stronger focus on renewable energy, also to decarbonise the industrial sector, Egypt, as Africa's second most industrialised country, could seize the opportunity for economic development within a decarbonising global economy. The results of the analysis along the transition phase model towards 100% renewable energy are intended to stimulate and support the discussion on Egypt's future energy system by providing an overarching guiding vision for the energy transition and the development of appropriate policies.
To limit global warming, the use of carbon capture and storage technologies (CCS) is considered to be of major importance. In addition to the technical-economic, ecological and political aspects, the question of social acceptance is a decisive factor for the implementation of such low-carbon technologies. This study is the first literature review addressing the acceptance of industrial CCS (iCCS). In contrast to electricity generation, the technical options for large-scale reduction of CO2 emissions in the energy-intensive industry sector are not sufficient to achieve the targeted GHG neutrality in the industrial sector without the use of CCS. Therefore, it will be crucial to determine which factors influence the acceptance of iCCS and how these findings can be used for policy and industry decision-making processes. The results show that there has been limited research on the acceptance of iCCS. In addition, the study highlights some important differences between the acceptance of iCCS and CCS. Due to the technical diversity of future iCCS applications, future acceptance research must be able to better address the complexity of the research subject.
This report was prepared by the Wuppertal Institute in cooperation with the German Economic Institute as part of the SCI4climate.NRW project. The report aims to shed light on the possible phenomenon that the availability and costs of "green" energy sources may become a relevant location factor for basic materials produced in a climate-neutral manner in the future.
For this purpose, we introduce the term "Renewables Pull". We define Renewables Pull as the initially hypothetical phenomenon of a shift of industrial production from one region to another as a result of different marginal costs of renewable energies (or of secondary energy sources or feedstocks based on renewable energies).
Shifts in industrial production in the sense of Renewables Pull can in principle be caused by differences in the stringency of climate policies in different countries, as in the case of Carbon Leakage. Unlike Carbon Leakage, however, Renewables Pull can also occur if similarly ambitious climate policies are implemented in different countries. This is because Renewables Pull is primarily determined by differences in the costs and availability of renewable energies. In addition, Renewables Pull can also be triggered by cost reductions of renewable energies and by changing preferences on the demand side towards climate-friendly products. Another important difference to Carbon Leakage is that the Renewables Pull effect does not necessarily counteract climate policy.
Similar to Carbon Leakage, it is to be expected that Renewables Pull could become relevant primarily for very energy-intensive products in basic materials industries. In these sectors (e.g. in the steel or chemical industry), there is also the possibility that relocations of specific energy-intensive parts of the production process could trigger domino effects. As a result, large parts of the value chains previously existing in a country or region could also be subjected to an (indirect) Renewables Pull effect.
For the federal state of NRW, in which the basic materials industry plays an important role, the possible emergence of Renewables Pull is associated with significant challenges as climate policy in Germany, the EU and also worldwide is expected to become more ambitious in the future.
This report aims to enable and initiate a deeper analysis of the potential future developments and challenges associated with the Renewables Pull effect. Thus, in the final chapter of the report, several research questions are formulated that can be answered in the further course of the SCI4climate.NRW project as well as in other research projects.
Mit dem European Green Deal hat Europa seine Klimaschutzziele nach oben korrigiert und einen weiteren, erforderlichen Schritt auf dem Weg zur Dekarbonisierung unternommen. Die neuen europäischen Zielvorgaben sind in Deutschland mit der Verabschiedung des Klimaschutzgesetzes seit Ende 2019 schon verbindlich festgeschrieben, wobei hier bereits spezifische CO2-Budgets für die Einzelsektoren definiert werden. Die Umsetzung dieser Ziele verlangt eine radikale Transformation des heutigen Energieversorgungssystems.
Der Umbau des komplexen und heterogenen Wärmebereiches stellt dabei eine der größten Herausforderung dar: Wärme ist in Europa für über 50 % des Endenergieverbrauches verantwortlich, wird aber gegenwärtig nur zu 22 % aus erneuerbaren Quellen bereitgestellt. Aus geoklimatischen, kulturellen und politischen Gründen sind dabei die Anteile in den einzelnen europäischen Ländern sehr unterschiedlich. Unter den Spitzenreitern sind Schweden (66 %) und Dänemark (48 %). Unser Nachbarland Österreich erreicht immerhin 34 %. Im Vergleich dazu liegt Deutschland mit 15 % abgeschlagen auf einem hinteren Platz.
Der verstärkte Einsatz erneuerbarer Energien ist neben der Steigerung der Energieeffizienz die tragende Säule der Wärmewende, wobei hier ein breiter Mix an Technologien gefragt ist.
Die direkte Nutzung der Wärmetechnologien hat weiterhin Priorität, erfordert aber eine stark beschleunigte Erschließung der vorhandenen Potenziale sowie einen nachhaltigen Umgang mit wertvoller Biomasse.
Die Sektorenkopplung bietet die notwendige Ergänzung für die geplante Transformation (BMWi, 2021). Solarenergie in Form von Solarwärme und Solarstrom wird somit in Kombination mit Umweltwärme eine zentrale Rolle im zukünftigen Wärme- und Kälteversorgungssystem spielen. Darauf fokussiert sich der Beitrag, wobei die spezifische Situation der Niedertemperatur-Solarthermie und der Schlüsseltechnologie Wärmepumpe adressiert werden.
Dieses von Mitgliedern des Arbeitskreises "Postwachstumsökonomien" (2016 - 2020) der ARL verfasste Positionspapier ordnet die internationale Postwachstumsdebatte ein und diskutiert ihre Relevanz für die Raumentwicklung und die raumwissenschaftliche Forschung. Neben sektoralen Zugängen und Befunden werden konkrete Vorschläge zur Postwachstumsorientierung in Planung, Forschung und Lehre gemacht. Dabei wird zwischen kurzfristig erreichbaren Veränderungen und mittel- bis langfristig auszulegenden Maßnahmen unterschieden.
Der Oberbürgermeister der Stadt Wuppertal hat in seinem 100-Tage-Programm das Ziel ausgegeben, die Stadt bis 2035 auf den Weg Richtung Klimaneutralität zu bringen. Das Wuppertal Institut hat in einer Sondierungsstudie die zentralen Handlungsfelder zusammengestellt und hebt hervor, welche Herausforderungen damit verbunden sind. Deutlich wird: Wuppertal alleine kann das nicht schaffen. Es braucht dazu veränderte Rahmenbedingungen auch auf Landes- und Bundesebene, die dieses ambitionierte Ziel unterstützen. Doch bis dahin kann auch die Stadt selbst einiges anstoßen.