Zukünftige Energie- und Industriesysteme
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In recent years, most countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), including Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia, have rolled out national policies with the goal of decarbonising their economies. Energy policy goals in these countries have been characterised by expanding the deployment of renewable energy technologies in the electricity mix in the medium term (i.e., until 2030). This tacitly signals a transformation of socio-technical systems by 2030 and beyond. Nevertheless, how these policy objectives actually translate into future scenarios that can also take into account a long-term perspective up to 2050 and correspond to local preferences remains largely understudied. This paper aims to fill this gap by identifying the most widely preferred long-term electricity scenarios for Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia. During a series of two-day workshops (one in each country), the research team, along with local stakeholders, adopted a participatory approach to develop multiple 2050 electricity scenarios, which enabled electricity pathways to be modelled using Renewable Energy Pathway Simulation System GIS (renpassG!S). We subsequently used the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) within a Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) to capture local preferences. The empirical findings show that local stakeholders in all three countries preferred electricity scenarios mainly or even exclusively based on renewables. The findings demonstrate a clear preference for renewable energies and show that useful insights can be generated using participatory approaches to energy planning.
Energy sufficiency is one of the three energy sustainability strategies, next to energy efficiency and renewable energies. We analyse to what extent European governments follow this strategy, by conducting a systematic document analysis of all available European National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) and Long-Term Strategies (LTSs). We collect and categorise a total of 230 sufficiency-related policy measures, finding large differences between countries. We find most sufficiency policies in the transport sector, when classifying also modal shift policies to change the service quality of transport as sufficiency policies. Types of sufficiency policy instruments vary considerably from sector to sector, for instance the focus on financial incentives and fiscal instruments in the mobility sector, information in the building sector, and financial incentive/tax instruments in cross-sectoral application. Regulatory instruments currently play a minor role for sufficiency policy in the national energy and climate plans of EU member states. Similar to energy efficiency in recent decades, sufficiency still largely referred to as micro-level individual behaviour change or necessary exogenous trends that will need to take place. It is not treated yet as a genuine field of policy action to provide the necessary framework for enabling societal change.
On the pathway to climate neutrality, EU member states are obliged to submit national energy and climate plans (NECPs) with planned policies and measures for decarbonization until 2030 and long-term strategies (LTSs) for further decarbonization until 2050. We analysed the 27 NECPs and 15 LTSs submitted by October 2020 using an interrater method. This paper focuses on energy sufficiency policies and measures in the transport sector.
We found a total of 236 sufficiency policy measures with more than half of them (53 %) in the transport/mobility sector. Additionally, we found 41 measures that address two or more sectors (cross-sectoral measures). From the explicit sufficiency measures within the transport sector, 82 % aim at modal shift. A reduction of transport volumes is much less addressed. Countries plan to use mainly fiscal and economic instruments. Those are in many cases investments in infrastructure of low-carbon transport modes and taxation instruments. Plans on decarbonisation measures are also frequently mentioned. The majority of cross-sectoral measures are carbon taxes or tax reforms, also economic instruments.
On the one hand it is encouraging that Member States strongly emphasize the transport sector in their NECPs and LTSs - at least quantitatively and concerning sufficiency measures - because this sector has been the worst-performing in climate mitigation so far. On the other hand, the measures described seem not sufficient to reach ambitious climate targets, and we doubt that the presented set of policy instruments will get the transport sector on track to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in the necessary extent.
Nigeria is Africa's largest economy and home to approximately 10% of the un-electrified population of Sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, 77 million Nigerians or 40% of the population had no access to affordable, reliable and sustainable electricity. In practice, diesel- and petrol-fuelled back-up generators supply the vast majority of electricity in the country. In Nigeria's nationally-determined contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement, over 60% of the greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) reductions are foreseen in the power sector. The goal of this study is to identify and critically examine the pathways available to Nigeria to meet its 2030 electricity access, renewables and decarbonization goals in the power sector. Using published data and stakeholder interviews, we build three potential scenarios for electrification and growth in demand, generation and transmission capacity. The demand assumptions incorporate existing knowledge on pathways for electrification via grid extension, mini-grids and solar home systems (SHS). The supply assumptions are built upon an evaluation of the investment pipeline for generation and transmission capacity, and possible scale-up rates up to 2030. The results reveal that, in the most ambitious Green Transition scenario, Nigeria meets its electricity access goals, whereby those connected to the grid achieve a Tier 3 level of access, and those served by sustainable off-grid solutions (mini-grids and SHS) achieve Tier 2. Decarbonization pledges would be surpassed in all three scenarios but renewable energy goals would only be partly met. Fossil fuel-based back-up generation continues to play a substantial role in all scenarios. The implications and critical uncertainties of these findings are extensively discussed.
Implementation of nationally determined contributions : Islamic Republic of Iran country report
(2018)
The study analyses the country background, emissions trends, ongoing activities and barriers relating to the implementation of the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of the Islamic Republic of Iran under the UNFCCC. A special emphasis is laid on further mitigation potentials in the fields of demand-side efficiency through energy-price reform, upstream oil and gas efficiency (with an emphasis on gas flaring) and a sustainable energy mix (with an emphasis on renewable energies).
It is now widely recognized that effective communication and demand-side policies for alternative energy require sound knowledge of preferences and determinants of demand of the public and consumers. To date, public attitudes towards new transport technologies have been studied under very different conceptual frameworks. This paper gives an overview of the various conceptual frameworks and methodologies used, where four main approaches can be distinguished: general attitudinal surveys, risk perception studies, non-market economic valuation studies, and other approaches such as those based on semiotic theory. We then review the findings of the recent literature on acceptance, attitudes and preferences for hydrogen and fuelcell end-use technologies, focusing on vehicles. These studies are then contrasted with related research into alternative fuel vehicles. The paper finally discusses the main trends in research and avenues for further work in this field. We recommend, among other things, the use of approaches that build knowledge and familiarity with the technology prior to the exploration of attitudes, and the set up of studies that take a whole-systems perspective of hydrogen technologies and that look at hydrogen in the context of other competing clean technologies.
In recent decades, better data and methods have become available for understanding the complex functioning of cities and their impacts on sustainability. This review synthesizes the recent developments in concepts and methods being used to measure the impacts of cities on environmental sustainability. It differentiates between a dominant trend in research literature that concentrates on the accounting and allocation of greenhouse gas emissions and energy use to cities and a reemergence of studies that focus on the direct and indirect material and resource flows in cities. The methodological approaches reviewed may consider cities as either producers or consumers, and all recognize that urban environmental impacts can be local, regional, or global. As well as giving an overview of the methodological debates, we examine the implications of the different approaches for policy and the challenges these approaches face in their application on the field.
The industry sector accounted for just over 30% of global GHG emissions in 2010 and scenarios envisage a continuing rise in demand for energy-intensive materials. This article sums up the most recent international analysis (IPCC, IEA, UNIDO, Global Energy Assessment) to give a broad view of the current prospects for reducing GHG emissions in industry. It does so from a global perspective, complementing where necessary where regional and sector-specific case studies. The article addresses the portfolio of options available, their technical and economic potentials, the experience in the use of policy instruments in industry, the synergies and tradeoffs that mitigation in the industry sector can have with other policy objectives, and the specific concerns of developing countries. Long-term decarbonisation pathways for the sector are also presented.
Urban GHG emissions and resource flows : methods for understanding the complex functioning of cities
(2015)
This paper sums up the recent developments in concepts and methods being used to measure the impacts of cities on environmental sustainability. It differentiates between a dominant trend in research literature that concentrates on the accounting and allocation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy use to cities, and a re-emergence of studies focusing on the direct and indirect urban material and resource flows. The availability of reliable data and standard protocols is greater in the GHG accounting field and continues to grow rapidly.
Nigeria is Africa's top cement producer and could be on course to be one of the top producers globally. The goal of this study is to identify and critically examine the pathways available to Nigeria to meet its decarbonisation goals in the cement sector. Based on a literature review, the study assesses demand drivers and decarbonisation potentials for the sector. It then presents two different quantitative pathways for growth in production of cement by 2050, and three different pathways for decarbonisation of the sector. Using published data and a scenario analysis tool, the study calculates how the sector's emissions might evolve under each of these pathways. The results indicate that, in the most ambitious scenario, emissions from the sector can plateau by the late 2030s, resulting in an overall increase of 21% by 2050 (compared to 2015 levels). Achieving this scenario is necessary in order to put the sector on a path to net zero emissions beyond 2050. The scenario is driven by reductions in both energy-related and process emissions, as well as a small share of carbon capture and storage and demand management. A moderately ambitious scenario that relies mostly on savings on energy-related emissions results in an 84% increase in emissions by 2050. Finally, the Business-as-Usual scenario results in an almost tripling of emissions by 2050. The results indicate a strong potential for policies to drive improvements in energy efficiency and clinker-to-cement ratio. Critical areas of uncertainty within the assumptions include the production rates (including the evolution of the export market) and the fuel mix.
Die Akzeptanz von grünem Wasserstoff in Nordrhein-Westfalen : Status quo und Handlungsempfehlungen
(2023)
Nordrhein-Westfalen (NRW) ist Heimat energieintensiver Industrien wie der Stahl- und Chemieindustrie. Künftig wird grüner Wasserstoff notwendig sein, damit die Industrie in NRW Klimaneutralität erreichen kann. Die Herausforderungen hierbei sind jedoch vielfältig - auch wenn die Akzeptanz für grünen Wasserstoff sowohl in der Gesellschaft als auch bei unmittelbar beteiligten Akteursgruppen hoch ist. Die Autor*innen fassen in diesem In Brief die Ergebnisse von zwei durchgeführten Akzeptanzstudien zu grünem Wasserstoff in NRW zusammen und diskutieren, welche Handlungsempfehlungen sich daraus ergeben.
Akzeptanz von industriellem CCS in Nordrhein-Westfalen : Empfehlungen für Politik und Industrie
(2023)
Für die Landesregierung Nordrhein-Westfalen (NRW) ist die industriell genutzte Kohlenstoffabscheidung und -speicherung (engl. industrial carbon capture and storage, kurz iCCS) ein zentraler Baustein für den Übergang zu einer klimaneutralen Industrie bis 2045. Dafür braucht es aber eine breite gesellschaftliche Akzeptanz - zumal Pläne zur CO2-Abscheidung bei Kohlekraftwerken vor über zehn Jahren schon einmal an mangelnder gesellschaftlicher Akzeptanz gescheitert sind. In diesem In Brief haben die Autor*innen die Ergebnisse von zwei durchgeführten Akzeptanzstudien zu iCCS in NRW zusammengefasst und diskutieren, welche Handlungsempfehlungen sich daraus ergeben.
To limit global warming, the use of carbon capture and storage technologies (CCS) is considered to be of major importance. In addition to the technical-economic, ecological and political aspects, the question of social acceptance is a decisive factor for the implementation of such low-carbon technologies. This study is the first literature review addressing the acceptance of industrial CCS (iCCS). In contrast to electricity generation, the technical options for large-scale reduction of CO2 emissions in the energy-intensive industry sector are not sufficient to achieve the targeted GHG neutrality in the industrial sector without the use of CCS. Therefore, it will be crucial to determine which factors influence the acceptance of iCCS and how these findings can be used for policy and industry decision-making processes. The results show that there has been limited research on the acceptance of iCCS. In addition, the study highlights some important differences between the acceptance of iCCS and CCS. Due to the technical diversity of future iCCS applications, future acceptance research must be able to better address the complexity of the research subject.
The basic materials industries are a cornerstone of Europe's economic prosperity, increasing gross value added and providing around 2 million high-quality jobs. But they are also a major source of greenhouse gas emissions. Despite efficiency improvements, emissions from these industries were mostly constant for several years prior to the Covid-19 crisis and today account for 20 per cent of the EU's total greenhouse gas emissions.
A central question is therefore: How can the basic material industries in the EU become climate-neutral by 2050 while maintaining a strong position in a highly competitive global market? And how can these industries help the EU reach the higher 2030 climate target - a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions of at least 55 per cent relative to 1990 levels?
In the EU policy debate on the European Green Deal, many suppose that the basic materials industries can do little to achieve deep cuts in emissions by 2030. Beyond improvements to the efficiency of existing technologies, they assume that no further innovations will be feasible within that period. This study takes a different view. It shows that a more ambitious approach involving the early implementation of key low-carbon technologies and a Clean Industry Package is not just possible, but in fact necessary to safeguard global competitiveness.
Große Erzählungen im Engelsjahr 2020 handeln von der Textilindustrie gestern und heute. Die vorliegenden kleinen Erzählungen spielen in anderen textilen Welten und jenseits der großen Fabriken. Von ihnen erzählt Friedrich Engels nicht. Dem Erzählten und Nicht-Erzählten auf der Spur finden wir schließlich heraus, dass auch zu Friedrich Engels selbst in einer bestimmten Weise erzählt - und nicht erzählt wird.
Das Paper stellt zunächst die unterschiedlichen Commonsbegriffe vor und zeigt die den Debatten innewohnenden politischen Rationalitätsmuster auf. Weiter wird von der Ideengeschichte vorherrschender politischer und ökonomischer Logiken erzählt und dargelegt, weshalb und inwiefern diese Logiken Commons zerstören. Die Ambivalenz öffentlichen und privaten Eigentums wird am Beispiel Wald aufgezeigt. Schließlich werden Theorie und Praxis von Commons, Commoning und Commoners skizziert.
Die Energiewende stellt eine gesellschaftliche Herausforderung dar und bedarf neuer Arbeitskonzepte. Diese These vertreten Uta von Winterfeld und Adelheid Biesecker in ihrem Beitrag "Bitte zweimal wenden! - Die Transformation der Energie- und Arbeitswelt". Ausgehend davon, dass die Energiewende einer sozial-ökonomischen Revolution gleichkomme und die Geschichte der Energie eine Geschichte steigender Arbeitsproduktivität sei, weswegen regenerative Energiequellen wie Sonne und Wind die Entwicklung bedrohen und zu einer Rückkehr zu einer früheren zivilisatorischen Phase führen würden, zeigen die Autorinnen, dass man zu letzterer Einsicht nur dann gelangt, wenn man die Energiewende ohne die notwendige Arbeitswende betrachtet. Damit die Energiewende nicht nur gelingt, sondern auch wirtschaftlich und gesellschaftlich positiv verläuft, braucht es laut Autorinnen eine Neuorganisation von Energie und Arbeit.
Erzählungen
(2022)
Herrschaft und Macht
(2022)
Zwei Großbegriffe wie Herrschaft und Macht in einem Artikel fassen zu wollen, ist eine arge Herausforderung. Doch es liegt nahe, beide Begriffe aufeinander zu beziehen und voneinander zu unterscheiden. Sie sind nicht einfach zu erhellen und werden oft synonym verwandt. Erschwerend kommt hinzu, dass begriffliche Großlandschaften in verschiedenen Sprachen unterschiedlich ausgeprägt sind. Im Englischen wird beispielsweise oft "power" anstelle von "Herrschaft" benutzt (etwa "critique of power" für "Herrschaftskritik").
Im ersten Abschnitt folgt die Autorin zunächst etymologischen Spuren in der deutschen Sprache und zeige dabei zugleich, dass beide Begriffe patriarchal eingefärbt sind. Sprache ist lebendig. Sie verändert sich - und sie ist selbst herrschaftlich. Anschließend skizziert die Autorin begriffliche Unterscheidungen und Ausprägungen, insbesondere bei Max Weber (in seiner Herrschaftssoziologie), bei Michel Foucault und bei Hannah Arendt. Derart ausgestattet legt die Autorin im zweiten Abschnitt dar, wie und anhand von was die Begriffe in der Politischen Ökologie verwandt werden oder verwandt werden könnten. Im Ausblick münden die Darlegungen in den Versuch einer Anwendung kritischer Herrschafts- und Machtanalyse ein.
Natur
(2022)
Natur (aus dem Lateinischen, griechisch "Physis") gilt als einer der umfassendsten Begriffe überhaupt. Daher scheint von vornherein aussichtslos, sie begrifflich definierend zu einem positiven Ende führen zu wollen. Gleichwohl bleiben Verständnisse von Natur und Vorschläge für eine Definition spannend, gerade auch mit Blick auf Mehrdeutigkeiten und Ambivalenzen.
Dem humorvoll skeptischen Blick auf den Zeitgeist zeigt sich ein seltsames Bild: Es scheint eine Zeit der Wenden ohne wirkliche Wende zu sein. So lange schon wird von "Wende" geschrieben und gesprochen, dass inzwischen beispielsweise in Verbindung mit Energie von alter (1980er-Jahre) und von neuer (2010er-Jahre) Energiewende die Rede ist. Viele Wenden sind in deutscher Sprachmanier zusammengesetzte Substantive und beziehen sich - von der Mobilitäts- über die Konsum- und die Agrar- bis hin zur Waldwende - auf ökologische Probleme. Manchen Wenden ist ein Adjektiv beigefügt, das eine Strömung im politisch-ökonomischen Raum beschreibt, so etwa die neoliberale Wende in der Sozialpolitik. Meist wird im Kontext der Ökologie konstatiert, dass die Probleme zwar bekannt, die eingeleiteten Wendestrategien und Wendemaßnahmen aber völlig unzureichend seien. Daher schlägt Benedikt Schmid eine "kritische Wende" vor. Die wachstums- und fortschrittsgebundenen Denkmuster gelte es aufzubrechen. Sie seien beharrlich und würden sich immer wieder auch in den zeitlichen und räumlichen Vorstellungen alternativer Ansätze einnisten. (1)
Das Forschungsprojekt VorAB ("Vorsorgend handeln - Avantgardistische Brückenansätze für nachhaltige Regionalentwicklung") fragt nach strukturellen Hindernissen für nachhaltige Regionalentwicklung und nach Potenzialen fortschrittlicher Ansätze zu fairer Land- und Ressourcennutzung. (2) Es untersucht die Transformationsfelder Wald-, Energie- und Landwirtschaft in der Region Lübeck. Erste Ergebnisse zeigen, dass bei dem Terminus Wende mit Blick auf qualitative und grundlegende Veränderungen Vorsicht geboten ist.
Das Kreislaufwirtschaftsgesetz (KrWG) verlangt mit Bezug auf das Abfallvermeidungsprogramm (AVP) die Benennung zweckmäßiger Maßstäbe für Abfallvermeidungsmaßnahmen (AVM), anhand derer die Fortschritte bei der Entkopplung der mit der Abfallerzeugung verbundenen Auswirkungen auf Mensch und Umwelt vom Wirtschaftswachstum erfasst werden können. Das AVP benennt mögliche Indikatoren, allerdings ist unklar, inwieweit diese das Entstehen von Abfällen darstellen oder die Effekte von AVM abbilden können. Mögliche Bewertungsmaßstäbe für die Messung des Abfallvermeidungserfolges wurden analysiert, auf ihre Eignung geprüft und ein Set an Indikatoren erarbeitet, um eine kontinuierliche Messung des Erfolges von AVM zu ermöglichen.
Energy-intensive processing industries (EPIs) produce iron and steel, aluminum, chemicals, cement, glass, and paper and pulp and are responsible for a large share of global greenhouse gas emissions. To meet 2050 emission targets, an accelerated transition towards deep decarbonization is required in these industries. Insights from sociotechnical and innovation systems perspectives are needed to better understand how to steer and facilitate this transition process. The transitions literature has so far, however, not featured EPIs. This paper positions EPIs within the transitions literature by characterizing their sociotechnical and innovation systems in terms of industry structure, innovation strategies, networks, markets and governmental interventions. We subsequently explore how these characteristics may influence the transition to deep decarbonization and identify gaps in the literature from which we formulate an agenda for further transitions research on EPIs and consider policy implications. Furthering this research field would not only enrich discussions on policy for achieving deep decarbonization, but would also develop transitions theory since the distinctive EPI characteristics are likely to yield new patterns in transition dynamics.
Transponder-based Aircraft Detection Lighting Systems (ADLS) are increasingly used in wind turbines to limit beacon operation times, reduce light emissions, and increase wind energy acceptance. The systems use digital technologies such as receivers of digital transponder signals, LTE/5G, and other information and communication technology. The use of ADLS will be mandatory in Germany both for new and existing wind turbines with a height of >100 m from 2023 (onshore) and 2024 (offshore), so a nationwide rollout is expected to start during 2022. To fully realize the benefits while avoiding risks and bottlenecks, a thorough and holistic understanding of the efforts required and the impacts caused along the life cycle of an ADLS is essential. Therefore, this study presents the first multi-aspect holistic evaluation of an ADLS. A framework for evaluating digital applications in the energy sector, previously developed by the authors, is refined and applied. The framework is based on multi-criteria analysis (MCA), life cycle assessment (LCA), and expert interviews. On an aggregated level, the MCA results show an overall positive impact from all stakeholders’ perspectives. Most positive impacts are found in the society and politics category, while most negative impacts are of technical nature. The LCA of the ADLS reveals a slightly negative impact, but this impact is negligible when compared to the total life cycle impact of the wind turbines of which the ADLS is a part. Besides the aggregated evaluation, detailed information on potential implementation risks, bottlenecks, and levers for life cycle improvement are presented. In particular, the worldwide scarcity of the required semiconductors, in combination with the general lack of technicians in Germany, lead to the authors’ recommendation for a limited prolongation of the planned rollout period. This period should be used by decision-makers to ensure the availability of technical components and installation capacities. A pooling of ADLS installations in larger regions could improve plannability for manufacturers and installers. Furthermore, an ADLS implementation in other countries could be supported by an early holistic evaluation using the presented framework.
The development of digital technologies is accelerating, enabling increasingly profound changes in increasingly short time periods. The changes affect almost all areas of the economy as well as society. The energy sector has already seen some effects of digitalization, but more drastic changes are expected in the next decades. Besides the very positive impacts on costs, system stability, and environmental effects, potential obstacles and risks need to be addressed to ensure that advantages can be exploited while adverse effects are avoided. A good understanding of available and future digital applications from different stakeholders' perspectives is necessary. This study proposes a framework for the holistic evaluation of digital applications in the energy sector. The framework consists of a combination of well-established methods, namely the multi-criteria analysis (MCA), the life cycle assessment (LCA), and expert interviews. The objective is to create transparency on benefits, obstacles, and risks as a basis for societal and political discussions and to supply the necessary information for the sustainable development and implementation of digital applications. The novelty of the proposed framework is the specific combination of the three methods and its setup to enable sound applicability to the wide variety of digital applications in the energy sector. The framework is tested subsequently on the example of the German smart meter roll-out. The results reveal that, on the one hand, the smart meter roll-out clearly offers the potential to increase the system stability and decrease the carbon emission intensity of the energy system. Therefore, the overall evaluation from an environmental perspective is positive. However, on the other hand, close attention needs to be paid to the required implementation and operational effort, the IT (information technology) and data security, the added value for the user, the social acceptance, and the realization of energy savings. Therefore, the energy utility perspective in particular results in an overall negative evaluation. Several areas with a need for action are identified. Overall, the proposed framework proves to be suitable for the holistic evaluation of this digital application.
Die Digitalisierung ist längst gelebte Praxis. Jeden Tag werden Milliarden an "digitalen" Handlungen ausgeführt. Beispielsweise werden täglich 207 Mrd. E-Mails verschickt, 8,8 Mrd. YouTube-Videos angesehen und 36 Mio. Amazonkäufe getätigt. Dabei nimmt die Geschwindigkeit, mit der neue Anwendungen entwickelt und etabliert werden, kontinuierlich zu. Es stellt sich also die Frage, was im Energiesektor zu erwarten ist und wie die Entwicklung zielgerichtet genutzt werden kann.
Im Vergleich zu den Jahrzehnten zuvor ist das Energiesystem heute durch eine hohe Dynamik gekennzeichnet und steht unter ständigem Veränderungsdruck. Im vorliegenden Artikel diskutieren die Autoren die Rolle der Digitalisierung in den derzeitigen Prozessen. Sie nutzen dafür die Mehr-Ebenen-Perspektive (Multi Level Perspective, MLP). Diese sieht Transformation als ein Zusammenspiel von externen und internen Faktoren an: Die äußeren übergeordneten Entwicklungen kreieren einen Veränderungsdruck auf das Regime von außen, welches infolgedessen aus der Balance geraten kann. Darüber hinaus eröffnen sich Möglichkeiten für zielgerichtete Veränderungen im System durch die erfolgreiche Etablierung von innovativen Ansätzen. Letzteres gilt gerade für die breiten Anwendungspotenziale der Digitalisierung.
Die beiden Autoren zeichnen die Transformationsprozesse im Energiesektor seit Beginn der Liberalisierung nach und blicken anschließend auf die Herausforderungen in der jetzigen Phase der Energiewende - darunter die Systemintegration erneuerbarer Energien in das Stromsystem und die digitale Vernetzung. Der Artikel schließt ab mit einer Analyse externer und interner Faktoren, die eine Digitalisierung des Energiesektors weiter vorantreiben.
Digitalization is a transformation process which has already affected many parts of industry and society and is expected to yet increase its transformative speed and impact. In the energy sector, many digital applications have already been implemented. However, a more drastic change is expected during the next decades. Good understanding of which digital applications are possible and what are the associated benefits as well as risks from the different perspectives of the impacted stakeholders is of high importance. On the one hand, it is the basis for a broad societal and political discussion about general targets and guidelines of digitalization. On the other hand, it is an important piece of information for companies in order to develop and sustainably implement digital applications. This article provides a structured overview of potential digital applications in the German energy (electricity) sector, including the associated benefits and the impacted stakeholders on the basis of a literature review. Furthermore, as an outlook, a methodology to holistically analyze digital applications is suggested. The intended purpose of the suggested methodology is to provide a complexity-reduced fact base as input for societal and political discussions and for the development of new digital products, services, or business models. While the methodology is outlined in this article, in a follow-up article the application of the methodology will be presented and the use of the approach reflected.
Im Energiesektor hat die Digitalisierung bereits viele Abläufe der Wertschöpfungskette verändert. Es besteht jedoch weiterhin erhebliches Potenzial zur Nutzung von digitalen Anwendungen. Insofern ist mit weiteren tiefgreifenden Veränderungen zu rechnen. Neben den zahlreichen Nutzen bestehen auch potenzielle negative Auswirkungen. Die so entstehenden Spannungsfelder müssen frühzeitig analysiert werden, um Lösungsoptionen für potenzielle Hindernisse zu erarbeiten um somit den größtmöglichen Nutzen der Digitalisierung erzielen zu können.
The climate impact of the iron and steel industry can be mitigated through increased energy efficiency, emission efficiency, material efficiency, and product use efficiency resulting in reduced product demand. For achieving ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation targets in this sector all measures could become necessary. The current paper focuses on one of those four key measures: emission efficiency via innovative primary steelmaking technologies. After analysing their techno-economical potential until 2100 in part A of this publication, the current research broadens the evaluation scope for the crucial year 2050, based on a Multicriteria-Analysis (MCA). 12 criteria from five different categories ("technology", "society and politics", "economy", "safety and vulnerability" and "ecology") are used to assess the same four future steelmaking technologies in a systematic and holistic way in Germany, as one possible location. The technologies in focus are the blast furnace route (BF-BOF), blast furnace with carbon capture and storage (BF-CCS), hydrogen direct reduction (H-DR), and iron ore electrolysis (EW). These four technologies have been selected, as explained in part A of this paper, because they are the most commonly discussed technological options under discussion by policymakers and the iron and steel industry. The results of the current work should provide decision makers in industry and government with a long-term guidance on technological choices.
In 2050 the MCA shows significantly higher preference scores for the two innovative routes H-DR and EW compared to the blast furnace based routes. The main reasons being higher scores in the economical and environmental criteria. BF-CCS shows its greatest weakness in the social acceptance and the safety and vulnerability criteria. BF-BOF has the lowest economy and ecology score of all assessed routes, which is due to the projected high cost for carbon dioxide emission and increasing prices for fossil fuels. A first indicative trend assessment from today towards 2050 shows that H-DR is the preferred MCA option from today on.
Three exemplary weighting distributions (representing the perspectives of the steel industry, environmental organisations and the government), used to simulate different stakeholder angle of view, don't have a strong influence on the overall evaluation of the steelmaking routes. The results remain very similar, with the highest scores for the innovative routes (H-DR and EW). This leads to the conclusion that EW and in particular H-DR can be identified as the preferred future steelmaking technology across different perspectives.
Specific innovation efforts and dedicated programs are necessary to minimize the time until marketability and to share the development burden. The similarity of the MCA results from different perspectives indicates a great opportunity to reach a political consensus and to work together towards a common future goal. Regarding the pressing time horizon a concentrated engagement for one (or few) technological choices would be highly recommended.
Nach jahrzehntelangen, erfolgreichen Reduktionen der CO2-Emissionen in der Industrie, ist der Trend in den letzten Jahren wieder rückläufig geworden: seit 2014 sind die Emissionen wieder angestiegen (UBA 2019). Um die deutschen Klimaziele zu erreichen ist es daher notwendig, die Anstrengungen zu verstärken und intensiver als in der Vergangenheit Innovationen für den Klimaschutz voranzutreiben: Neue Produkte und Geschäftsmodelle sowie neue Herstellungsverfahren zu entwickeln, mit denen sich Treibhausgasemissionen reduzieren lassen.
Um die deutschen Klimaziele für 2030 einzuhalten, werden hierfür gerade auch (inkrementelle) Effizienzsteigerungen nötig sein - diese werden jedoch nicht ausreichend sein. Innovationen müssen auch einen disruptiven Wandel von Strukturen und Geschäftsmodellen erwirken. Disruptive Innovationen und industrielle Konversionsprozesse bergen jedoch hohe Risiken für die etablierte Industrie. Hier stellt sich also die Frage, wie eine auf Klimaschutz ausgerichtete Innovationspolitik gestaltet werden muss, um einerseits die notwendigen CO2-Einsparungen zu ermöglichen und andererseits die Leistungfähigkeit der deutschen Industrie zu befördern?
Vor diesem Hintergrund widmet sich diese Studie zwei zentralen Fragestellungen: Wie laufen Klimaschutz-Innovationsprozesse ab? Wie können Klimaschutz-Innovationen befördert werden?
Basierend auf einer konzeptionellen Klassifizierung von Klimaschutz-Innovationen, wurden eine Reihe von existierenden Klimaschutz-Innovationen, gerade aus der energieintensiven Industrie analysiert. Vier Fallbeispiele aus verschiedenen Sektoren (Aluminiumherstellung und -verarbeitung, Herstellung neuer Kraftstoffe sowie der Verzinkung) und verschiedenen Innovationstypen werden in der Studie ausführlich beschrieben. Dabei zeigt sich, dass sich Unternehmen nicht nur an aktuellen Rahmenbedingungen orientieren, sondern Innovationen - sowohl inkrementeller wie auch radikaler Natur- im Bereich Klimaschutz auch unter der Annahme dynamischer Entwicklungen von sich verstärkenden Klimaschutzrahmenbedingungen vorantreiben. Darüber hinaus waren an allen untersuchten Fällen auch externe Promotoren unterstützend tätig. Daher wurden die möglichen Rollen von Klimaschutz-Promotoren mit unterschiedlichen regionalen und inhaltlichen Schwerpunkten gezielt analysiert.
Die deutschen Braun- und Steinkohlekraftwerke produzieren 40 % des deutschen Stroms - sind aber für 80 % der Treibhausgasemissionen in diesem Sektor verantwortlich. Ein sukzessiver Ausstieg aus der Kohleverstromung kann daher einen entscheidenden Beitrag leisten, die deutschen Klimaziele zu erreichen und den Pfad zur Einhaltung der Klimaziele von Paris offen zu halten. Vor diesem Hintergrund hat sich in den letzten Jahren in Deutschland eine Debatte um einen möglichen nationalen Kohleausstieg entsponnen.
Der Naturschutzbund Deutschland (NABU) hat das Wuppertal Institut daher beauftragt, zentrale wissenschaftliche Studien und politische Positionspapiere zum Thema Kohleausstieg zu analysieren. In der nun vorliegenden Metastudie fassen die Autoren den aktuellen Diskussionsstand zu wichtigen Eckpfeilern eines beschleunigten Kohleausstiegs in Deutschland zusammen. Analysiert wurden insbesondere Aussagen zur klimapolitischen Notwendigkeit und zur energiewirtschaftlichen Machbarkeit unterschiedlicher Zeithorizonte eines Kohleausstiegs sowie Optionen für eine sozialverträgliche Gestaltung des damit einhergehenden Strukturwandels.
Today more than 45 % of all energy-related CO2 emissions come from burning coal. Thus, reducing CO2 emissions from coal use is a necessity for reaching the targets of the Paris Agreement. This will not only pose challenges for coal consumers (restructuring of the energy system), but also for countries whose economy is strongly depending on the production of coal. This paper examines the role of coal in three countries, which are or were in recent years among the top coal exporters: Indonesia, Colombia and Vietnam. Understanding challenges and possible transition pathways in these countries will help to develop global strategies to reduce CO2 emissions from coal in the short to mid-term.
The main objective of this article is to evaluate CO2 mitigation potential and to calculate costs avoided by the use of different CO2 mitigation technologies in China's cement sector, namely energy efficiency improvements, use of alternative fuels, clinker substitution and carbon capture and storage (CCS). Three scenarios are designed based on the projection of cement output and technology development over the next 40 years (2010–2050). 2.5, 4.7 and 4.3 Gt tonnes of CO2 will be saved totally in basic scenario and two low carbon scenarios up to 2050. By comparing these technologies along the scenarios, it can be concluded that CO2 emissions can mainly be reduced by energy efficiency improvements and use of alternative fuels. Clinker substitution, which reduces the clinker-to-cement ratio as well as energy intensity, results in significant cost advantages. CCS, including post-combustion capture and oxy-fuel combustion capture, could play an important role in the capture of CO2 in the cement industry, and is expected to be in commercial use by 2030.
The cement industry is one of the major energy consuming and CO2 emitting sectors in China. In 2010, 1,868 million tons of cement has been produced, which accounted for 56.1% of the world's total cement production. The 11th Five-Year Plan (FYP) (2006-2010) included policy measures for CO2 emission abatement in cement production. Based on the main governmental framework of CO2 mitigation policies at national level in the cement sector, key policies and technologies used during this period are identified and their effects on CO2 reduction are assessed. This paper calculates the reduction of CO2 emissions related to four main policies and technologies for efficient cement production in the 11th and the 12th FYP (2011-2015) with 2005 as a reference year. These are waste heat recovery, closing outdated facilities, substitution for clinker production and other technologies aiming to increase energy efficiency. Due to these measures, we estimate that a total CO2 emission reduction during the 11th FYP of 397 million tonnes could be saved, which is considerably different to 185.75 million tonnes estimated by Zeng (2008) and 303 million tonnes by the NDRC by using different calculation methods. Of the four technologies, the 4th group of energy efficiency increasing techniques was the most important policy and avoided the largest amount of CO2 emissions. Previous energy intensity reduction was mainly due to the outdated production closing and energy efficiency improving. Based on the assessment of technology performance, it appears that there is still a large emission reduction potential in cement production processes. The paper calculates this potential for the 12th FYP period (2011-2015) based on these four identified policy measures. The result is compared to the Chinese government targets in the 12th FYP and promising future CO2 mitigation policies and technologies are proposed, such as the use of alternative energy.
The Paris Agreement introduces long-term strategies as an instrument to inform progressively more ambitious emission reduction objectives, while holding development goals paramount in the context of national circumstances. In the lead up to the twenty-first Conference of the Parties, the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project developed mid-century low-emission pathways for 16 countries, based on an innovative pathway design framework. In this Perspective, we describe this framework and show how it can support the development of sectorally and technologically detailed, policy-relevant and country-driven strategies consistent with the Paris Agreement climate goal. We also discuss how this framework can be used to engage stakeholder input and buy-in; design implementation policy packages; reveal necessary technological, financial and institutional enabling conditions; and support global stocktaking and increasing of ambition.
Ziel dieses Teilvorhabens innerhalb des FlexGeber-Projektes war die Initiierung und Begleitung eines Prozesses zur Identifikation und (idealerweise späteren) Realisierung von Effizienz-, Erneuerbaren- und Flexibilitätspotenzialen in den Industriebetrieben Taifun-Tofu GmbH (Lebensmittel) und Hermann Peter KG (Baustoffe).
Dazu haben die Forschenden jeweils in einem Workshop relevante Akteure zusammengebracht und Wissen zur Bestimmung und Bewertung von Flexibilitäten aus technischer, rechtlich-politischer sowie strukturell-organisatorischer Sicht erarbeitet und vermittelt. Gemeinsam klärten sie, welche Informationen in welchem Format für Unternehmen erforderlich und relevant sind, um Flexibilitätsoptionen identifizieren und umsetzen zu können.
Insgesamt gliedert sich die methodische Vorgehensweise in vier zentrale Arbeitsschritte: Vor-Ort-Begehungen bei den Reallaboren, Identifikation technischer Hotspots, Akteursworkshop sowie abschließende Auswertung. Der vorliegende Teilbericht dokumentiert diesen Prozess und fokussiert auf die Identifikation von möglichen Effizienz-, Erneuerbaren- und Flexibilitätsoptionen und der Erfassung von Hemmnissen, die einer Umsetzung von Maßnahmen zur Erschließung der Potenziale bei den Praxispartnern entgegenstehen.
Da die Workshops vornehmlich auf die Unternehmen Taifun-Tofu und Hermann Peter ausgerichtet waren, fokussiert dieser Bericht auf Hemmnisse, die diese Unternehmen bzw. Unternehmen dieser Branchen betreffen. Darüber hinaus ist ein Kapitel zu Hemmnissen, die sich aus dem Demonstrationsvorhaben des Fraunhofer ISE-Campus (Ausbau des Kältenetzes und Installation von Kältespeichern) ableiten, ist in diesem Bericht enthalten.
Im Herbst 2018 wird das neue Energieforschungsprogramm (EFP) der Bundesregierung verabschiedet. Das Forschungsprojekt "Technologien für die Energiewende", kurz TF_Energiewende, hat hierfür eine wesentliche wissenschaftliche Basis geliefert. Für 31 Technologiefelder, die mehrere Hundert Technologien umfassen, analysierten die Projektpartner das Innovations- und Marktpotenzial, bewerteten Chancen und Risiken sowie den möglichen Beitrag der Technologien zur Umsetzung der Energiewende und zeigten Forschungs- und Entwicklungsbedarf auf. Die nun veröffentlichten Ergebnisse dienen gleichzeitig als umfassendes Nachschlagewerk für Entscheider in Unternehmen, Forschungsabteilungen, Fördergeber und die interessierte Fachöffentlichkeit.
Der Politikbericht ist ein Ergebnis des Forschungsvorhabens "Technologien für die Energiewende", das vom Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie (BMWi) als Teil des strategischen Leitprojekts "Trends und Perspektiven der Energieforschung" von 2016 bis 2018 gefördert wurde. Er enthält neben einer kurzen deutschen und englischen Einleitung vierseitige Zusammenfassungen zu jedem der 31 analysierten Technologiefelder und eine Kurzdarstellung der Bewertungsmethodik. Die Zusammenfassungen sind gegliedert nach Definition des Technologiefeldes, aktueller Stand der Technologie, ausgewählte Bewertungskriterien und F&E-Empfehlungen.
The study presents the results of an integrated assessment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the power plant sector in Germany, with special emphasis on the competition with renewable energy technologies. Assessment dimensions comprise technical, economic and environmental aspects, long-term scenario analysis, the role of stakeholders and public acceptance and regulatory issues. The results lead to the overall conclusion that there might not necessarily be a need to focus additionally on CCS in the power plant sector. Even in case of ambitious climate protection targets, current energy policy priorities (expansion of renewable energies and combined heat and power plants as well as enhanced energy productivity) result in a limited demand for CCS. In case that the large energy saving potential aimed for can only partly be implemented, the rising gap in CO2 reduction could only be closed by setting up a CCS-maximum strategy. In this case, up to 22% (41 GW) of the totally installed load in 2050 could be based on CCS. Assuming a more realistic scenario variant applying CCS to only 20 GW or lower would not be sufficient to reach the envisaged climate targets in the electricity sector. Furthermore, the growing public opposition against CO2 storage projects appears as a key barrier, supplemented by major uncertainties concerning the estimation of storage potentials, the long-term cost development as well as the environmental burdens which abound when applying a life-cycle approach. However, recently, alternative applications are being increasingly considered–that is the capture of CO2 at industrial point sources and biomass based energy production (electricity, heat and fuels) where assessment studies for exploring the potentials, limits and requirements for commercial use are missing so far. Globally, CCS at power plants might be an important climate protection technology: coal-consuming countries such as China and India are increasingly moving centre stage into the debate. Here, similar investigations on the development and the integration of both, CCS and renewable energies, into the individual energy system structures of such countries would be reasonable.
If the current energy policy priorities are retained, there may be no need to focus additionally on carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the power plant sector of Germany. This applies even in the case of ambitious climate protection targets, according to the results of the presented integrated assessment study. These cover a variety of aspects: Firstly, the technology is not expected to become available on a large scale in Germany before 2025. Secondly, if renewable energies and combined heat and power are expanded further and energy productivity is enhanced, there is likely to be only a limited demand for CCS power plants, as a scenario analysis of CCS deployment in Germany shows. Thirdly, cost analysis using the learning curve approach shows that the electricity generation costs of renewable electricity approach those of CCS power plants. This leads to the consequence that, from 2020, several renewable technologies may well be in a position to offer electricity at a cheaper rate than CCS power plants. In addition, a review of new life cycle assessments for CO2 separation in the power plant sector indicates that the greenhouse gas emissions from 1 kW h of electricity generated by first-generation CCS power plants could only be reduced by 68 % to 87 % (95 % in individual cases). Finally, a cautious, conservative estimate of the effective German CO2 storage capacity of approximately 5 billion tonnes of CO2 is calculated, including a fluctuation range yielding values between 4 and 15 billion tonnes of CO2. Therefore, the total CO2 emissions caused by large point sources in Germany could be stored for 12 years (basic value) or for 8 or 33 years (sensitivity values).
Prospects of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in India's power sector : an integrated assessment
(2014)
Objective: The aim of the present article is to conduct an integrated assessment in order to explore whether CCS could be a viable technological option for significantly reducing future CO2 emissions in India. Methods: In this paper, an integrated approach covering five assessment dimensions is chosen. However, each dimension is investigated using specific methods (graphical abstract).
Results: The most crucial precondition that must be met is a reliable storage capacity assessment based on site-specific geological data since only rough figures concerning the theoretical capacity exist at present. Our projection of different trends of coal-based power plant capacities up to 2050 ranges between 13 and 111 Gt of CO2 that may be captured from coal-fired power plants to be built by 2050. If very optimistic assumptions about the country's CO2 storage potential are applied, 75 Gt of CO2 could theoretically be stored as a result of matching these sources with suitable sinks. If a cautious approach is taken by considering the country's effective storage potential, only a fraction may potentially be sequestered. In practice, this potential will decrease further with the impact of technical, legal, economic and social acceptance factors. Further constraints may be the delayed commercial availability of CCS in India, a significant barrier to achieving the economic viability of CCS, an expected net maximum reduction rate of the power plant’s greenhouse gas emissions of 71-74%, an increase of most other environmental and social impacts, and a lack of governmental, industrial or societal CCS advocates.
Conclusion and practice implications: Several preconditions need to be fulfilled if CCS is to play a future role in reducing CO2 emissions in India, the most crucial one being to determine reliable storage capacity figures. In order to overcome these barriers, the industrialised world would need to make a stronger commitment in terms of CCS technology demonstration, cooperation and transfer to emerging economies like India. The integrated assessment might also be extended by a comparison with other low-carbon technology options to draw fully valid conclusions on the most suitable solution for a sustainable future energy supply in India.
Prospects of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in China's power sector : an integrated assessment
(2015)
Objective: The aim of the present article is to conduct an integrated assessment in order to explore whether CCS could be a viable technological option for significantly reducing future CO2 emissions in China. Methods: In this paper, an integrated approach covering five assessment dimensions is chosen. Each dimension is investigated using specific methods (graphical abstract). Results: The most crucial precondition that must be met is a reliable storage capacity assessment based on site-specific geological data. Our projection of different trends of coal-based power plant capacities up to 2050 ranges between 34 and 221 Gt of CO2 that may be captured from coal-fired power plants to be built by 2050. If very optimistic assumptions about the country’s CO2 storage potential are applied, 192 Gt of CO2 could theoretically be stored as a result of matching these sources with suitable sinks. If a cautious approach is taken, this figure falls to 29 Gt of CO2. In practice, this potential will decrease further with the impact of technical, legal, economic and social acceptance factors. Further constraints may be the delayed commercial availability of CCS in China; a significant barrier to achieving the economic viability of CCS due to a currently non-existing nation-wide CO2 pricing scheme that generates a sufficiently strong price signal; an expected life-cycle reduction rate of the power plant's greenhouse gas emissions of 59-60%; and an increase in most other negative environmental and social impacts. Conclusion and practice implications: Most experts expect a striking dominance of coal-fired power generation in the country's electricity sector, even if the recent trend towards a flattened deployment of coal capacity and reduced annual growth rates of coal-fired generation proves to be true in the future. In order to reduce fossil fuel-related CO2 emissions to a level that would be consistent with the long-term climate protection target of the international community to which China is increasingly committing itself, this option may require the introduction of CCS. However, a precondition for opting for CCS would be finding robust solutions to the constraints highlighted in this article. Furthermore, a comparison with other low-carbon technology options may be useful in drawing completely valid conclusions on the economic, ecological and social viability of CCS in a low-carbon policy environment. The assessment dimensions should be integrated into macro-economic optimisation models by combining qualitative with quantitative modelling, and the flexible operation of CCS power plants should be analysed in view of a possible role of CCS for balancing fluctuating renewable energies.
This article presents an integrated assessment conducted in order to explore whether carbon capture and storage (CCS) could be a viable technological option for significantly reducing future CO2 emissions in South Africa. The methodological approach covers a commercial availability analysis, an analysis of the long-term usable CO2 storage potential (based on storage capacity assessment, energy scenario analysis and source-sink matching), an economic and ecological assessment and a stakeholder analysis. The findings show, that a reliable storage capacity assessment is needed, since only rough figures concerning the effective capacity currently exist. Further constraints on the fast deployment of CCS may be the delayed commercial availability of CCS, significant barriers to increasing the economic viability of CCS, an expected net maximum reduction rate of the power plant's greenhouse gas emissions of 67%-72%, an increase in other environmental and social impacts, and low public awareness of CCS. One precondition for opting for CCS would be to find robust solutions to these constraints, taking into account that CCS could potentially conflict with other important policy objectives, such as affordable electricity rates to give the whole population access to electricity.