Zukünftige Energie- und Industriesysteme
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Phasing out coal in the German energy sector : interdependencies, challenges and potential solutions
(2019)
Relevant aspects of the options and requirements for reducing and phasing out coal-fired power generation have been under debate for several years. This process has produced a range of strategies, analyses and arguments, outlining how coal use in the energy sector could be reduced and phased out in the planned time frame, and determining structural policy measures suitable to support this. This Coal Report studies the existing analyses and provides an overview of the state of debate. It is intended to provide information on facts and contexts, present the advantages and disadvantages of individual courses of action, and reveal the respective scientific backgrounds. It strives to take a scientific and independent approach, and present facts in concise language, making it easy to follow for readers who are not experts in the field, without excessive abridgements or provocative statements.
The Paris Agreement calls on all nations to pursue efforts to contribute to limiting the global temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, due to limited global, regional and country-specific analysis of highly ambitious GHG mitigation pathways, there is currently a lack of knowledge about the transformational changes needed in the coming decades to reach this target. Through a meta-analysis of mitigation scenarios for Germany, this article aims to contribute to an improved understanding of the changes needed in the energy system of an industrialized country. Differentiation among six key long-term energy system decarbonization strategies is suggested, and an analysis is presented of how these strategies will be pursued until 2050 in selected technologically detailed energy scenarios for Germany. The findings show, that certain strategies, including the widespread use of electricity-derived synthetic fuels in end-use sectors as well as behavioral changes, are typically applied to a greater extent in mitigation scenarios aiming at high GHG emission reductions compared to more moderate mitigation scenarios. The analysis also highlights that the pace of historical changes observed in Germany between 2000 and 2015 is clearly insufficient to adequately contribute to not only the 1.5 °C target, but also the 2 °C long-term global target.
The experience curve theory assumes that technology costs decline as experience of a technology is gained through production and use. This article reviews the literature on the experience curve theory and its empirical evidence in the field of electricity generation technologies. Differences in the characteristics of experience curves found in the literature are systematically presented and the limitations of the experience curve theory, as well as its use in energy models, are discussed. The article finds that for some electricity generation technologies, especially small-scale modular technologies, there has been a remarkably strong (negative) relationship between experience and cost for several decades. Conversely, for other technologies, especially large-scale and highly complex technologies, the experience curve does not appear to be a useful tool for explaining cost changes over time. The literature review suggests that when analysing past cost developments and projecting future cost developments, researchers should be aware that factors other than experience may have significant influence. It may be worthwhile trying to incorporate some of these additional factors into energy system models, although considerable uncertainties remain in quantifying the relevance of some of these factors.
The Port of Rotterdam is an important industrial cluster mainly comprising of oil refining, chemical manufacturing and power and steam generation. In 2015, the area accounted for 18 % of the Netherlands' total CO2 emissions. The Port of Rotterdam Authority is aware that the port's economy is heavily exposed to future global and EU decarbonization policies, as the bulk of its activities focuses on trading, handling, converting and using fossil fuels. Based on a study for the Port Authority, our paper explores possible pathways of how the industrial cluster can keep its strong market position in Europe and still reduce its CO2 emissions by 98 % by 2050. The "Biomass and CCS" scenario assumes that large amounts of biomass can be supplied sustainably and will be used in the port for power generation as well as for feedstock for refineries and the chemical industry. Fischer-Tropsch fuel generation plays an important role in this scenario, allowing the port to become a key cluster for the production of synthetic fuels and feedstocks in Western Europe. The "Closed Carbon Cycle" scenario assumes that renewables-based electricity will be used at the port to supply heat and hydrogen for the synthetic generation of feedstock for the chemical industry. The carbon required for the chemicals will stem from recycled waste. Technologies particularly needed in this scenario are water electrolysis and gasification or pyrolysis to capture carbon from waste, as well as technologies for the production of base chemicals from syngas. The paper compares both scenarios with regard to their respective technological choices and infrastructural changes. The scenarios’ particular opportunities and challenges are also discussed. Using possible future pathways of a major European petrochemical cluster as an example, the paper illustrates options for deep decarbonisation of energy intensive industries in the EU and beyond.
As part of this dissertation, a categorisation of the social costs of electricity supply is suggested. The following three main cost categories are differentiated: plant-level costs, system costs and external costs. Different types of costs are allocated to these categories and are examined and quantified (to the extent possible) for several power generation technologies. The limits of monetizing certain types of costs are also discussed. In a further step, and based on a large number of empirical studies, individual factors that have had a significant influence on the development of plant-level costs in the past, are identified and categorized. Finally, based on an online survey conducted among energy modellers, the dissertation examines to what extent the identified relevant types of costs and cost-influencing factors are taken into account in different types of energy models.
Decarbonisation of energy systems requires deep structural change. The purpose of this research was to analyse the rates of change taking place in the energy systems of the European Union (EU), in the light of the EU's climate change mitigation objectives. Trends on indicators such as energy intensity and carbon intensity of energy were compared with decadal benchmarks derived from deep decarbonisation scenarios for the electricity, residential, transport, and industry sectors. The methodology applied provides a useful and informative approach to tracking decarbonisation of energy systems. The results show that the EU has made significant progress in decarbonising its energy systems. On a number of indicators assessed the results show that a significant acceleration from historical levels is required in order to reach the rates of change seen on the future benchmarks for deep decarbonisation. The methodology applied provides an example of how the research community and international organisations could complement the transparency mechanism developed by the Paris Agreement on climate change, to improve understanding of progress toward low-carbon energy systems.
Various electricity generation technologies using different primary energy sources are available. Many published studies compare the costs of these technologies. However, most of those studies only consider plant-level costs and do not fully take into account additional costs that societies may face in using these technologies. This article reviews the literature on the costs of electricity generation technologies, aiming to determine which types of costs are relevant from a societal point of view when comparing generation technologies. The paper categorises the relevant types of costs, differentiating between plant-level, system and external costs as the main categories. It discusses the relevance of each type of cost for each generation technology. The findings suggest that several low-carbon electricity generation technologies exhibit lower social costs per kWh than the currently dominant technologies using fossil fuels. More generally, the findings emphasise the importance of taking not only plant-level costs, but also system and external costs, into account when comparing electricity generation technologies from a societal point of view. The article intends to inform both policymakers and energy system modellers, the latter who may strive to include all relevant types of costs in their models.
Following the decisions of the Paris climate conference at the end of 2015 as well as similar announcements e.g. from the G7 in Elmau (Germany) in the summer of 2015, long-term strategies aiming at (almost) full decarbonisation of the energy systems increasingly move into the focus of climate and energy policy. Deep decarbonisation obviously requires a complete switch of energy supply towards zero GHG emission sources, such as renewable energy. A large number of both global as well as national climate change mitigation scenarios emphasize that energy efficiency will likewise play a key role in achieving deep decarbonization. However, the interdependencies between a transformation of energy supply on the one hand and the role of and prospects for energy efficiency on the other hand are rarely explored in detail.
This article explores these interdependencies based on a scenario for Germany that describes a future energy system relying entirely on renewable energy sources. Our analysis emphasizes that generally, considerable energy efficiency improvements on the demand side are required in order to have a realistic chance of transforming the German energy system towards 100 % renewables. Efficiency improvements are especially important if energy demand sectors will continue to require large amounts of liquid and gaseous fuels, as the production of these fuels are associated with considerable energy losses in a 100 % renewables future. Energy efficiency on the supply side will therefore differ considerably depending on how strongly the use of liquid and gaseous fuels in the various demand sectors can be substituted through the direct use of electricity. Apart from a general discussion of the role of energy efficiency in a 100 % renewable future, we also look at the role of and prospects for energy efficiency in each individual demand sector.
In recent years, a number of energy scenario studies which aim to advise policy makers on appropriate energy policy measures have been developed. These studies highlight changes required to achieve a future energy system that is in line with public policy goals such as reduced greenhouse gas emissions and an affordable energy supply. We argue that behavioural changes towards energy-sufficient lifestyles have considerable potential to contribute to public policy goals and may even be indispensable for achieving some of these goals. This potential should, therefore, be reflected in scenario studies aiming to provide comprehensive advice to policy makers. We analyse the role that energy-sufficient lifestyles play in prominent recent global energy scenario studies and find that these studies largely ignore the potential of possible behavioural changes towards energy-sufficient lifestyles. We also describe how such changes have been considered in several other scenario studies, in order to derive recommendations for the future development of global energy scenarios. We conclude that the inclusion of lifestyle changes in energy scenarios is both possible and useful. Based on our findings, we present some general advice for energy scenario developers on how to better integrate sufficiency into future energy scenario studies in a quantitative manner.
On behalf of the Port of Rotterdam Authority, the Wuppertal Institute developed three possible pathways for a decarbonised port of Rotterdam until 2050. The port area is home to about 80 per cent of the Netherlands' petrochemical industry and significant power plant capacities. Consequently, the port of Rotterdam has the potential of being an international leader for the global energy transition, playing an important role when it comes to reducing CO2 emissions in order to deliver on the EU's long-term climate goals.
The three decarbonisation scenarios all built on the increasing use of renewables (wind and solar power) and the adoption of the best available technologies (efficiency). The analysis focuses on power plants, refineries and the chemical industry, which together are responsible for more than 90 per cent of the port area's current CO2 emissions.
The decarbonisation scenarios describe how CO2 emissions could be reduced by 75 to 98 per cent in 2050 (compared to 2015). Depending on the scenario, different mitigation strategies are relied upon, including electrification, closure of carbon cycles or carbon capture and storage (CCS). The study includes recommendations for local companies, the Port Authority as well as policy makers. In addition, the study includes a reference scenario, which makes it clear that a "business as usual" mentality will fall well short of contributing adequately to the EU's long-term climate goals.