Zukünftige Energie- und Industriesysteme
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The German federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) is home to one of the most important industrial regions in Europe, and is the first German state to have adopted its own Climate Protection Law (CPL). This paper describes the long-term (up to 2050) mitigation scenarios for NRW’s main energy-intensive industrial sub-sectors which served to support the implementation of the CPL. It also describes the process of scenario development, as these scenarios were developed through stakeholder participation. The scenarios considered three different pathways (best-available technologies, break-through technologies, and CO2 capture and storage). All pathways had optimistic assumptions on the rate of industrial growth and availability of low-carbon electricity. We find that a policy of "re-industrialisation" for NRW based on the current industrial structures (assumed here to represent an average growth of NRWs industrial gross value added (GVA) of 1.6% per year until 2030 and 0.6% per year from 2030 to 2050), would pose a significant challenge for the achievement of overall energy demand and German greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets, in particular as remaining efficiency potentials in NRW are limited. In the best-available technology (BAT) scenario CO2 emission reductions of only 16% are achieved, whereas the low carbon (LC) and the carbon capture and storage (CCS) scenario achieve 50% and 79% reduction respectively. Our results indicate the importance of successful development and implementation of a decarbonised electricity supply and breakthrough technologies in industry - such as electrification, hydrogen-based processes for steel, alternative cements or CCS - if significant growth is to be achieved in combination with climate mitigation. They, however, also show that technological solutions alone, together with unmitigated growth in consumption of material goods, could be insufficient to meet GHG reduction targets in industry.
Reaching net-zero in the chemical industry : a study of roadmaps for industrial decarbonisation
(2024)
Striving to mitigate climate change, the European Union has adopted net-zero greenhouse gas emissions as a target for 2050. In this paper, European chemical industry roadmaps from the past six years are assessed and compared to uncover how the industry envisions its role in the transition to net-zero emissions. The roadmaps are assessed in terms of ambition level, technology and feedstock strategies, investment needs and costs, agency and dependency on other actors, as well as timeline and concretion. Although net-zero pathways are often drawn out in the roadmaps, some also choose to emphasize and argue for less ambitious pathways with emission reductions of only 40-60 %. The roadmaps vary widely in terms of the importance they assign to mechanical and chemical recycling, switching to biogenic carbon and carbon dioxide as feedstock, electrification and hydrogen, and carbon capture and storage. A commonality though, is that low-tech or near-term mitigation pathways such as demand reduction, reuse or material efficiency are seldom included. High investment needs are generally highlighted, as well as the need for policy to create enabling conditions, whereas the agency and responsibility of the chemical industry itself is downplayed. Our analysis highlights that the chemical industry does not yet have a strong and shared vision for pathways to net-zero emissions. We conclude that such a future vision would benefit from taking a whole value chain approach including demand-side options and consideration of scope 3 emissions.
In spite of current multiple political crises, global warming will remain a prime issue on the global agenda. The adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015 and its quick ratification in 2016 have created a strong momentum for worldwide action against climate change. As global greenhouse gas emissions must decline towards levels close to zero by the middle of the century, the rapid decarbonisation of energy systems is high on the agenda of most countries around the globe.
This publication delivers insights into cutting edge research on the necessary transitions towards low carbon societies and by this aims to contribute to international as well as national policymaking.
The topics covered in more than 20 concise original articles are among the most important issues for progressing solutions for climate change and sustainable development. The papers discuss recent findings and case studies in the following subject areas:
Governance of the necessary long-term transitions in the context of potential known and unknown adverse developments;
Policy instruments and strategies that allow for financing the transition to low carbon economies and, at the same time, respond to today's economic and social challenges;
Integrated strategies for three of the most important arenas of global decarbonisation: Cities, as much of the change and necessary investment for low carbon societies must take place, be planned, be financed and be built in cities; industry, particularly the energy-intensive processing industries, which are at the core of society's metabolism and are responsible for a large and growing share of global emissions and science as a whole, which must become more solutions-oriented because the transitions needed will rely heavily on research providing solutions for technological as well as societal problems.
As a contribution to these great challenges and at the request of the G7 Environment Ministers, the Low Carbon Society Research Network (LCS-RNet) acts as a forum aimed at fostering research and policymaking to jointly achieve decarbonised energy systems in countries around the world. It convenes leading scientists, practitioners and policymakers and aims at supporting governments in proceeding jointly towards the design and implementation of climate-friendly low carbon societies.
Preventing the worst consequences of climate change would require that GHG emissions be reduced to levels near zero by the middle of the century. To respond to such a daunting challenge, we need to rethink and redesign the currently highly energy-dependent infrastructures of industrial societies and particularly the urban infrastructures to become low- or even zero-carbon cities. Sustainable urban infrastructures need technology. In this paper focused on Western European Cities, we discuss a wide set of technologies in the fields of building, energy and transport infrastructures that can significantly contribute to a reduction of energy and/or GHG emissions and are already available or are in the pipeline. Based on the review of a recent study for the city of Munich, we then present how a mix of these technologies could reduce CO2-emissions by up to 90% for the metropolis of 1.3 million inhabitants and that this strategy could be economically attractive despite a high initial investment.
All of the residential buildings of a city like Munich could be entirely redesigned for EUR 200 per inhabitant annually, which is about one third of an average annual natural gas bill.
Feedback devices can be used to inform households about their energy-consumption behavior. This may persuade them to practice energy conservation. The use of feedback devices can also - via word of mouth - spread among households and thereby support the spread of the incentivized behavior, e.g. energy-efficient heating behavior. This study investigates how to manage the impact of these environmental innovations via marketing. Marketing activities can support the diffusion of devices. This study aims to identify the most effective strategies of marketing feedback devices. We did this by adapting an agent-based model to simulate the roll-out of a novel feedback technology and heating behavior within households in a virtual city. The most promising marketing strategies were simulated and their impacts were analyzed. We found it particularly effective to lend out feedback devices to consumers, followed by leveraging the social influence of well-connected individuals, and giving away the first few feedback devices for free. Making households aware of the possibility of purchasing feedback devices was found to be least effective. However, making households aware proved to be most cost-efficient. This study shows that actively managing the roll-out of feedback devices can increase their impacts on energy-conservation both effectively and cost-efficiently.