Zukünftige Energie- und Industriesysteme
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In recent years, most countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), including Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia, have rolled out national policies with the goal of decarbonising their economies. Energy policy goals in these countries have been characterised by expanding the deployment of renewable energy technologies in the electricity mix in the medium term (i.e., until 2030). This tacitly signals a transformation of socio-technical systems by 2030 and beyond. Nevertheless, how these policy objectives actually translate into future scenarios that can also take into account a long-term perspective up to 2050 and correspond to local preferences remains largely understudied. This paper aims to fill this gap by identifying the most widely preferred long-term electricity scenarios for Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia. During a series of two-day workshops (one in each country), the research team, along with local stakeholders, adopted a participatory approach to develop multiple 2050 electricity scenarios, which enabled electricity pathways to be modelled using Renewable Energy Pathway Simulation System GIS (renpassG!S). We subsequently used the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) within a Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) to capture local preferences. The empirical findings show that local stakeholders in all three countries preferred electricity scenarios mainly or even exclusively based on renewables. The findings demonstrate a clear preference for renewable energies and show that useful insights can be generated using participatory approaches to energy planning.
German energy transition : targets, current status, chances and challenges of an ambitious pathway
(2019)
With the "Energiewende", the German term for the transformation of the national energy system, the German government pursues ambitious goals, primarily but not only to reflect the climate change challenge and to react to the risks associated with the use of nuclear power plants. After launching the energy concept in mid-2011, which describes the "Energiewende" goals, Germany was perceived as an international pioneer in energy transition for many years and has been acknowledged for its braveness to combine ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation targets with a phase out program for nuclear power plants. In this context, this article asks where Germany’s energy transition currently stands, what is planned next and how far the set targets have been achieved or where more action is required to stick to this pathway.
A significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions will be necessary in the coming decades to enable the global community to avoid the most dangerous consequences of man-made global warming. This fact is reflected in Germany's 7th Federal Energy Research Program (EFP), which was adopted in 2018. Direct Air Capture (DAC) technologies used to absorb carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere comprise one way to achieve these reductions in greenhouse gases. DAC has been identified as a technology (group) for which there are still major technology gaps. The intention of this article is to explore the potential role of DAC for the EFP by using a multi-dimensional analysis showing the technology's possible contributions to the German government's energy and climate policy goals and to German industry's global reputation in the field of modern energy technologies, as well as the possibilities of integrating DAC into the existing energy system. The results show that the future role of DAC is affected by a variety of uncertainty factors. The technology is still in an early stage of development and has yet to prove its large-scale technical feasibility, as well as its economic viability. The results of the multi-dimensional evaluation, as well as the need for further technological development, integrated assessment, and systems-level analyses, justify the inclusion of DAC technology in national energy research programs like the EFP.
Phasing out coal in the German energy sector : interdependencies, challenges and potential solutions
(2019)
Relevant aspects of the options and requirements for reducing and phasing out coal-fired power generation have been under debate for several years. This process has produced a range of strategies, analyses and arguments, outlining how coal use in the energy sector could be reduced and phased out in the planned time frame, and determining structural policy measures suitable to support this. This Coal Report studies the existing analyses and provides an overview of the state of debate. It is intended to provide information on facts and contexts, present the advantages and disadvantages of individual courses of action, and reveal the respective scientific backgrounds. It strives to take a scientific and independent approach, and present facts in concise language, making it easy to follow for readers who are not experts in the field, without excessive abridgements or provocative statements.
Urban energy systems have been commonly considered to be socio-technical systems within the boundaries of an urban area. However, recent literature challenges this notion in that it urges researchers to look at the wider interactions and influences of urban energy systems wherein the socio-technical sphere is expanded to political, environmental and economic realms as well. In addition to the inter-sectoral linkages, the diverse agents and multilevel governance trends of energy sustainability in the dynamic environment of cities make the urban energy landscape a complex one. There is a strong case then for establishing a new conceptualisation of urban energy systems that builds upon these contemporary understandings of such systems. We argue that the complex systems approach can be suitable for this. In this paper, we propose a pilot framework for understanding urban energy systems using complex systems theory as an integrating plane. We review the multiple streams of urban energy literature to identify the contemporary discussions and construct this framework that can serve as a common ontological understanding for the different scholarships studying urban energy systems. We conclude the paper by highlighting the ways in which the framework can serve some of the relevant communities.
For some time, 3D printing has been a major buzzword of innovation in industrial production. It was considered a game changer concerning the way industrial goods are produced. There were early expectations that it might reduce the material, energy and transport intensity of value chains. However for quite a while, the main real world applications of additive manufacturing (AM) have been some rapid prototyping and the home-based production of toys made from plastics. On this limited basis, any hypotheses regarding likely impacts on industrial energy efficiency appeared to be premature. Notwithstanding the stark contrast between early hype and practical use, the diffusion of AM has evolved to an extent that at least for some applications allows for a preliminary assessment of its likely implications for energy efficiency.
Unlike many cross-cutting energy efficiency technologies, energy use of AM may vary substantially depending on industry considered and material used for processing. Moreover, AM may have much greater repercussions on other stages of value chains than conventional cross-cutting energy efficiency technologies. In case of AM with metals the following potential determinants of energy efficiency come to mind:
- A reduction of material required per unit of product and used during processing;
- Changes in the total number and spatial allocation of certain stages of the value chain; and
- End-use energy efficiency of final products.
At the same time, these various streams of impact on energy efficiency may be important drivers for the diffusion of AM with metals. This contribution takes stock of AM with metals concerning applications and processes used as well as early evidence on impacts on energy efficiency and combine this into a systematic overview. It builds on relevant literature and a case study on Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing performed within the REINVENT project.
The Port of Rotterdam is an important industrial cluster, comprising mainly oil refining, chemical production and power generation. In 2016, the port's industry accounted for 19% of the Netherlands' total CO2 emissions. The Port of Rotterdam Authority is aware that the cluster is heavily exposed to future decarbonisation policies, as most of its activities focus on trading, handling, converting and using fossil fuels. Based on a study for the Port Authority using a mixture of qualitative and quantitative methods, our article explores three pathways whereby the port's industry can maintain its strong position while significantly reducing its CO2 emissions and related risks by 2050. The pathways differ in terms of the EU's assumed climate change mitigation ambitions and the key technological choices made by the cluster's companies. The focus of the paper is on identifying key risks associated with each scenario and ways in which these could be mitigated.
The German Energiewende is a deliberate transformation of an established industrial economy towards a nearly CO2-free energy system accompanied by a phase out of nuclear energy. Its governance requires knowledge on how to steer the transition from the existing status quo to the target situation (transformation knowledge). The energy system is, however, a complex socio-technical system whose dynamics are influenced by behavioural and institutional aspects, which are badly represented by the dominant techno-economic scenario studies. In this paper, we therefore investigate and identify characteristics of model studies that make agent-based modelling supportive for the generation of transformation knowledge for the Energiewende. This is done by reflecting on the experiences gained from four different applications of agent-based models. In particular, we analyse whether the studies have improved our understanding of policies' impacts on the energy system, whether the knowledge derived is useful for practitioners, how valid understanding derived by the studies is, and whether the insights can be used beyond the initial case-studies. We conclude that agent-based modelling has a high potential to generate transformation knowledge, but that the design of projects in which the models are developed and used is of major importance to reap this potential. Well-informed and goal-oriented stakeholder involvement and a strong collaboration between data collection and model development are crucial.
The paper describes quantitative scenarios on a possible evolution of the EU petrochemical industry towards climate neutrality. This industry will be one of the remaining sectors in a climate neutral economy still handling hydrocarbon material to manufacture polymers. Concepts of a climate neutral chemical industry stress the need to consider the potential end-of-life emissions of polymers produced from fossil feedstock and draft the vision of using renewable electricity to produce hydrogen and to use renewable (hydro)carbon feedstock. The latter could be biomass, CO2 from the air or recycled feedstock from plastic waste streams.
The cost-optimization model used to develop the scenarios describes at which sites investments of industry in the production stock could take place in the future. Around 50 types of products, the related production processes and the respective sites have been collected in a database. The processes included cover the production chain from platform chemicals via intermediates to polymers. Pipelines allowing for efficient exchange of feedstock and platform chemicals between sites are taken into account as well. The model draws on this data to simulate capacity change at individual plants as well as plant utilization. Thus, a future European production network for petrochemicals with flows between the different sites and steps of the value chain can be sketched.
The scenarios described in this paper reveal how an electrification strategy could be implemented by European industry over time with minimized societal costs. Today's existing assets as well as geographical variance of energy supply and the development of demand for different plastic sorts are the major model drivers.
Finally, implications for the chemical industry, the energy system and national or regional governments are discussed.
Driving forces of changing environmental pressures from consumption in the European food system
(2020)
The paper provides an integrated assessment of environmental and socio-economic effects arising from final consumption of food products by European households. Direct and indirect effects accumulated along the global supply chain are assessed by applying environmentally extended input-output analysis (EE-IOA). EXIOBASE 3.4 database is used as a source of detailed information on environmental pressures and world input-output transactions of intermediate and final goods and services. An original methodology to produce detailed allocation matrices to link IO data with household expenditure data is presented and applied. The results show a relative decoupling between environmental pressures and consumption over time and shows that European food consumption generates relatively less environmental pressures outside Europe (due to imports) than average European consumption. A methodological framework is defined to analyze the main driving forces by means of a structural decomposition analysis (SDA). The results of the SDA highlight that while technological developments and changes in the mix of consumed food products result in reductions in environmental pressures, this is offset by growth in consumption. The results highlight the importance of directing specific research and policy efforts towards food consumption to support the transition to a more sustainable food system in line with the objectives of the EU Farm to Fork Strategy.
The reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by energyintensive industries to a net zero level is a very ambitious and complex but still feasible challenge, as recent studies show for the EU level. "Industrial Transformation 2050" by Material Economics (2019) is of particular relevance, as it shows how GHG-neutrality can be achieved in Europe for the sectors chemicals (plastics and ammonia), steel and cement, based on three main decarbonisation strategies. The study determines the resulting total demands for renewable electricity, hydrogen and for the capture and storage of CO2 (CCS). However, it analyses neither the regional demand patterns that are essential for the required infrastructure nor the needed infrastructure itself.
Against this background the present paper determines the regional distribution of the resulting additional demands for electricity, hydrogen and CCS in Europe in the case that the two most energy and CCS intensive decarbonisation strategies of the study above will be realised for the existing industry structure. It explores the future infrastructure needs and identifies and qualitatively assesses different infrastructure solutions for the largest industrial cluster in Europe, i.e. the triangle between Antwerp, Rotterdam and Rhine-Ruhr. In addition, the two industrial regions of Southern France and Poland are also roughly examined.
The paper shows that the increase in demand resulting from a green transformation of industry will require substantial adaptation and expansion of existing infrastructures. These have not yet been the subject of infrastructure planning. In particular, the strong regional concentration of additional industrial demand in clusters (hot spots) must be taken into account. Due to their distance from the high-yield but remote renewable power generation potentials (sweet spots), these clusters further increase the infrastructural challenges. This is also true for the more dispersed cement production sites in relation to the remote CO2 storage facilities. The existing infrastructure plans should therefore be immediately expanded to include decarbonisation strategies of the industrial sector.
Industrial demand response can play an important part in balancing the intermittent production from a growing share of renewable energies in electricity markets. This paper analyses the role of aggregators - intermediaries between participants and power markets - in facilitating industrial demand response. Based on the results from semi-structured interviews with German demand response aggregators, as well as a wider stakeholder online survey, we examine the role of aggregators in overcoming barriers to industrial demand response. We find that a central role for aggregators is to raise awareness for the potentials of demand response, as well as to support implementation by engaging key actors in industrial companies. Moreover, we develop a taxonomy that helps analyse how the different functional roles of aggregators create economic value. We find that there is considerable heterogeneity in the kind of services that aggregators offer, many of which do create significant economic value. However, some of the functional roles that aggregators currently fill may become obsolete once market barriers to demand response are reduced or knowledge on demand response becomes more diffused.
Participatory modeling - the involvement of stakeholders in the modeling process - can support various objectives, such as stimulating learning processes or promoting mutual understanding of stakeholders. Participatory modeling approaches could therefore be useful for the governance of transitions, but a systematic account of potential application areas of participatory modeling methods in transition governance is still lacking. This article addresses this gap by providing a review of participatory modeling methods and linking them to phases and objectives of transition governance. We reviewed participatory modeling studies in transition research and related fields of social-ecological modeling, integrated assessment and environmental management. We find that participatory modeling methods are mostly used for participatory visioning and goal setting as well as for interactive strategy development. The review shows the potential for extending the application of participatory modeling methods to additional phases of transition governance and for the exchange of experiences between research fields.
In order to ensure security of supply in a future energy system with a high share of volatile electricity generation, flexibility technologies are needed. Industrial demand-side management ranks as one of the most efficient flexibility options. This paper analyses the effect of the integration of industrial demand-side management through the flexibilisation of aluminium electrolysis and other flexibilities of the electricity system and adjacent sectors. The additional flexibility options include electricity storage, heat storage in district heating networks, controlled charging of electric vehicles, and buffer storage in hydrogen electrolysis. The utilisation of the flexibilities is modelled in different settings with an increasing share of renewable energies, applying a dispatch model. This paper compares which contributions the different flexibilities can make to emission reduction, avoidance of curtailment, and reduction of fuel and CO2 costs, and which circumstances contribute to a decrease or increase of overall emissions with additional flexibilities. The analysis stresses the rising importance of flexibilities in an energy system based on increasing shares of renewable electricity generation, and shows that flexibilities are generally suited to reduce carbon emissions. It is presented that the relative contribution towards the reduction of curtailment and costs of flexibilisation of aluminium electrolysis are high, whereby the absolute effect is small compared to the other options due to the limited number of available processes.
This paper analyses and compares industry sector transformation strategies as envisioned in recent German, European and global deep decarbonisation scenarios.
The first part of the paper identifies and categorises ten key strategies for deep emission reductions in the industry sector. These ten key strategies are energy efficiency, direct electrification, use of climateneutral hydrogen and/or synthetic fuels, use of biomass, use of CCS, use of CCU, increases in material efficiency, circular economy, material substitution and end-use demand reductions. The second part of the paper presents a meta-analysis of selected scenarios, focusing on the question of which scenario relies to what extent on the respective mitigation strategies.
The key findings of the meta-analysis are discussed, with an emphasis on identifying those strategies that are commonly pursued in all or the vast majority of the scenarios and those strategies that are only pursued in a limited number of the scenarios. Possible reasons for differences in the choice of strategies are investigated.
The paper concludes by deriving key insights from the analysis, including identifying the main uncertainties that are still apparent with regard to the future steps necessary to achieve deep emission reductions in the industry sector and how future research can address these uncertainties.
Technological innovations in energy-intensive industries (EIIs) have traditionally emerged within the boundaries of a specific sector. Now that these industries are facing the challenges of deep decarbonisation and a significant reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is expected to be achieved across sectors, cross-industry collaboration is becoming increasingly relevant for low-carbon innovation.
Accessing knowledge and other resources from other industrial sectors as well as co-developing innovative concepts around industrial symbiosis can be mutually beneficial in the search for fossil-free feedstocks and emissions reductions. In order to harness the potential of this type of innovation, it is important to understand not only the technical innovations themselves, but in particular the non-technical influencing factors that can drive the successful implementation of cross-industry collaborative innovation projects.
The scientific state of the art does not provide much insight into this particular area of research. Therefore, this paper builds on three separate strands of innovation theory (cross-industry innovation, low-carbon innovation and innovation in EIIs) and takes an explorative case-study approach to identify key influencing factors for cross-industry collaboration for low-carbon innovation in EIIs.
For this purpose, a broad empirical database built within the European joint research project REINVENT is analysed. The results from this project provide deep insights into the dynamics of low-carbon innovation projects of selected EIIs. Furthermore, the paper draws on insights from the research project SCI4Climate.NRW. This project serves as the scientific competence centre for IN4Climate.NRW, a unique initiative formed by politicians, industry and science to promote, among other activities, cross-industry collaboration for the implementation of a climate-neutral industry in the German federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW). Based on the results of the case study analysis, five key influencing factors are identified that drive the implementation of cross-industry collaboration for low-carbon innovation in EIIs: Cross-industry innovation projects benefit from institutionalised cross-industry exchange and professional project management and coordination. Identifying opportunities for regional integration as well as the mitigation of financial risk can also foster collaboration. Lastly, clear political framework conditions across industrial sectors are a key driver.
Electricity generation requires water. With the global demand for electricity expected to increase significantly in the coming decades, the water demand in the power sector is also expected to rise. However, due to the ongoing global energy transition, the future structure of the power supply - and hence future water demand for power generation - is subject to high levels of uncertainty, because the volume of water required for electricity generation varies significantly depending on both the generation technology and the cooling system. This study shows the implications of ambitious decarbonization strategies for the direct water demand for electricity generation. To this end, water demand scenarios for the electricity sector are developed based on selected global energy scenario studies to systematically analyze the impact up to 2040. The results show that different decarbonization strategies for the electricity sector can lead to a huge variation in water needs. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) does not necessarily lead to a reduction in water demand. These findings emphasize the need to take into account not only GHG emission reductions, but also such aspects as water requirements of future energy systems, both at the regional and global levels, in order to achieve a sustainable energy transition.
Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are commonly used by decision makers in order to derive climate policies. IAMs are currently based on climate-economics interactions, whereas the role of social system has been highlighted to be of prime importance on the implementation of climate policies. Beyond existing IAMs, we argue that it is therefore urgent to increase efforts in the integration of social processes within IAMs. For achieving such a challenge, we present some promising avenues of research based on the social branches of economics. We finally present the potential implications yielded by such social IAMs.
Organic waste to energy (OWtE) technologies have been developed and implemented in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) countries. However, they are still far away to significantly contribute not only to treat the ever-increasing waste volumes in the region but also to supply the regional energy demand and meet national carbon emission goals. The technical complexity of these technologies aligned with lack of research, high investment costs and political deficiencies have not allowed for an appropriate implementation of OWtE in the region, where the applicability of large-scale plants remains to be demonstrated. This research presents the state-of-the art of OWtE technologies in the context of the LAC countries based on archival research method. In addition, it presents challenges and opportunities that the region is facing for an adequate implementation of these technologies. The main findings show that OWtE have the potential to improve waste and energy systems in the region by reducing environmental impacts along with a series of social and economic benefits, such as increasing access to a sustainable energy supply. Diverse researches indicate principally anaerobic digestion, fermentation (e.g. 2G bioethanol, etc.), microbial fuel cells, gasification and pyrolysis as efficient technologies to treat solid organic wastes and produce bioenergy.
This theory note develops a theoretical approach which integrates the negative spillovers that international institutions often impose on each other into our thinking about their normative legitimacy. Our approach draws on the political philosophy of Rainer Forst which revolves around the right to justification. It suggests that regime complexes facilitate the breakup of institution-specific orders of justification by prompting invested actors to justify negative spillovers vis-a-vis each other. Thus, regime complexes enable more encompassing justifications of negative spillovers than stand-alone international institutions. Against this backdrop, we submit that the proliferation of regime complexes represents normative progress in global governance.
The European Union (EU) has established that the goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2050 as a key driver of innovation and growth for industry and the economy in the EU. In addition to offering great opportunities, this also poses considerable challenges for the European economy and, for the most part, for basic industries, which are particularly emission-intensive and face strong international competition.
An integrated climate and industry strategy is of central importance to protecting the climate, since the production of steel, cement, basic chemicals, glass, paper, and other materials in the EU and worldwide accounts for roughly one fifth of total greenhouse gas emissions. Even in a greenhouse gas-neutral future, we will not be able to fully eliminate our need for these materials. At the same time, it is particularly challenging to produce these materials without creating emissions given the state of technology and the necessary infrastructures. This applies above all to the question of how large amounts of green energy, including electricity and hydrogen, can be produced at competitive prices. Analyses show that despite the considerable costs involved in process changeover, the costs of transforming the raw materials industry are acceptable to society as a whole, given that the additional costs usually only increase the price of the end products by a few percentage points. However, in the case of crude steel or cement, the price would increase by between one third and 100 per cent. Since almost all raw materials manufacturers face strong global market competition, in most cases they are not able to bankroll the investments in climate-neutral production and the required energy infrastructure without outside support.
This paper outlines an integrated climate industrial policy package that allows the EU to utilise its existing technological leadership in many of these industries to build a greenhouse gas-neutral raw materials industry.
Nigeria is Africa's largest economy and home to approximately 10% of the un-electrified population of Sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, 77 million Nigerians or 40% of the population had no access to affordable, reliable and sustainable electricity. In practice, diesel- and petrol-fuelled back-up generators supply the vast majority of electricity in the country. In Nigeria's nationally-determined contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement, over 60% of the greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) reductions are foreseen in the power sector. The goal of this study is to identify and critically examine the pathways available to Nigeria to meet its 2030 electricity access, renewables and decarbonization goals in the power sector. Using published data and stakeholder interviews, we build three potential scenarios for electrification and growth in demand, generation and transmission capacity. The demand assumptions incorporate existing knowledge on pathways for electrification via grid extension, mini-grids and solar home systems (SHS). The supply assumptions are built upon an evaluation of the investment pipeline for generation and transmission capacity, and possible scale-up rates up to 2030. The results reveal that, in the most ambitious Green Transition scenario, Nigeria meets its electricity access goals, whereby those connected to the grid achieve a Tier 3 level of access, and those served by sustainable off-grid solutions (mini-grids and SHS) achieve Tier 2. Decarbonization pledges would be surpassed in all three scenarios but renewable energy goals would only be partly met. Fossil fuel-based back-up generation continues to play a substantial role in all scenarios. The implications and critical uncertainties of these findings are extensively discussed.
New options are needed to reduce the impact of motor vehicles on climate change and declining fossil fuel resources. Cars which are fueled by hydrogen could be a sustainable method of transportation if suitable technologies can be devised to produce hydrogen in an environmentally benign manner along with the provision of the necessary fueling infrastructure. This paper assesses size, space, and cost requirements of bioreactors as a decentralized option to supply hydrogen powered cars with biohydrogen produced from algae or cyanobacteria on a theoretical basis. Decentralized supply of biohydrogen could help to reduce the problems that hydrogen cars face regarding market penetration. A feasibility study for decentralized biohydrogen production is conducted, taking the quantity of hydrogen which is needed to fuel current hydrogen cars into account. While this technology is, in theory, feasible, sizes, and costs of such reactors are currently too high for widespread adoption. Thus, more R&D is needed to close the gap and to approach marketability.
The mass roll out of solar PV across the Global South has enabled electricity access for millions of people. In the right context, Small Wind Turbines (SWTs) can be complementary, offering the potential to generate at times of low solar resource (night, monsoon season, winter, etc.) and increasing the proportion of the total energy system that can be manufactured locally. However, many contextual factors critically affect the viability of the technology, such as the extreme variability in the wind resource itself and the local availability of technical support. Therefore, performing a detailed market analysis in each new context is much more important. The Wind Empowerment Market Assessment Methodology (WEMAM) is a multi-scalar, transdisciplinary methodology for identifying the niche contexts where small wind can make a valuable contribution to rural electrification. This paper aims to inform the development of WEMAM with a critical review of existing market assessment methodologies. By breaking down WEMAM into its component parts, reflecting upon its practical applications to date and drawing upon insights from the literature, opportunities where it could continue to evolve are highlighted. Key opportunities include shifting the focus towards development outcomes; creating community archetypes; localised studies in high potential regions; scenario modelling and MCDA ranking of proposed interventions; participatory market mapping; and applying socio-technical transitions theory to understand how the small wind niche can break through into the mainstream.
Given large potentials of the MENA region for renewable energy production, transitions towards renewables-based energy systems seem a promising way for meeting growing energy demand while contributing to greenhouse gas emissions reductions according to the Paris Agreement at the same time. Supporting and steering transitions to a low-carbon energy system require a clear understanding of socio-technical interdependencies in the energy system as well as of the principle dynamics of system innovations. For facilitating such understanding, a phase model for renewables-based energy transitions in MENA countries, which structures the transition process over time through the differentiation of a set of sub-sequent distinct phases, is developed in this article. The phase model builds on a phase model depicting the German energy transition, which was complemented by insights about transition governance and adapted to reflect characteristics of the MENA region. The resulting model includes four phases ("Take-off renewables", "System integration", "Power to fuel/gases”, "Towards 100% renewables”), each of which is characterized by a different cluster of innovations. These innovations enter the system via three stages of development which describe different levels of maturity and market penetration, and which require appropriate governance. The phase model has the potential to support strategy development and governance of energy transitions in MENA countries in two complementary ways: it provides an overview of techno-economic developments as orienting guidelines for decision-makers, and it adds some guidance as to which governance approaches are suitable for supporting those developments.
Roadmaps for India's energy future foresee that coal power will continue to play a considerable role until the middle of the 21st century. Among other options, carbon capture and storage (CCS) is being considered as a potential technology for decarbonising the power sector. Consequently, it is important to quantify the relative benefits and trade-offs of coal-CCS in comparison to its competing renewable power sources from multiple sustainability perspectives. In this paper, we assess coal-CCS pathways in India up to 2050 and compare coal-CCS with conventional coal, solar PV and wind power sources through an integrated assessment approach coupled with a nexus perspective (energy-cost-climate-water nexus). Our levelized costs assessment reveals that coal-CCS is expensive and significant cost reductions would be needed for CCS to compete in the Indian power market. In addition, although carbon pricing could make coal-CCS competitive in relation to conventional coal power plants, it cannot influence the lack of competitiveness of coal-CCS with respect to renewables. From a climate perspective, CCS can significantly reduce the life cycle GHG emissions of conventional coal power plants, but renewables are better positioned than coal-CCS if the goal is ambitious climate change mitigation. Our water footprint assessment reveals that coal-CCS consumes an enormous volume of water resources in comparison to conventional coal and, in particular, to renewables. To conclude, our findings highlight that coal-CCS not only suffers from typical new technology development related challenges - such as a lack of technical potential assessments and necessary support infrastructure, and high costs - but also from severe resource constraints (especially water) in an era of global warming and the competition from outperforming renewable power sources. Our study, therefore, adds a considerable level of techno-economic and environmental nexus specificity to the current debate about coal-based large-scale CCS and the low carbon energy transition in emerging and developing economies in the Global South.
Water availability plays an important role in the expansion planning of utility-scale solar power plants, especially in the arid regions of the Middle East and North Africa. Although these power plants usually account for only a small fraction of local water demand, competition for water resources between communities, farmers, companies, and power suppliers is already emerging and is likely to intensify in future. Despite this, to date there has been a lack of comprehensive studies analyzing interdependencies and potential conflicts between energy and water at local level. This study addresses this research gap and examines the linkages between water resources and energy technologies at local level based on a case study conducted in Ouarzazate, Morocco, where one of the largest solar power complexes in the world was recently completed. To better understand the challenges faced by the region in light of increased water demand and diminishing water supply, a mixed-method research design was applied to integrate the knowledge of local stakeholders through a series of workshops. In a first step, regional socio-economic water demand scenarios were developed and, in a second step, water saving measures to avoid critical development pathways were systematically evaluated using a participatory multi-criteria evaluation approach. The results are a set of water demand scenarios for the region and a preferential ranking of water saving measures that could be drawn upon to support decision-making relating to energy and water development in the region.
Flexible, system-oriented operating strategies are becoming increasingly important in terms of achieving a climate-neutral energy system transformation. Solid-oxide electrolysis (SOEC) can play an important role in the production of green synthesis gas from renewable energy in the future. Therefore, it is important to investigate the extent to which SOEC can be used flexibly and which feedback effects and constraints must be taken into account. In this study, we derived a specific load profile from an energy turnaround scenario that supports the energy system. SOEC short-stacks were operated and we investigated the impact that the load profile has on electrical stack performance and stack degradation as well as the product gas composition by means of Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy. The stacks could follow the grid-related requirement profiles of secondary control power and minute reserves very well with transition times of less than two minutes per 25% of relative power. Only short-term disturbances of the H2/CO ratio were observed during transitions due to the adjustment of feed gases. No elevated degradation effects resulting from flexible operation were apparent over 1300 h, although other causes of degradation were present.
Water and energy are two pivotal areas for future sustainable development, with complex linkages existing between the two sectors. These linkages require special attention in the context of the energy transition. Against this background, this paper analyses the role of water availability in the development of solar thermal and photovoltaic power plants for the case of the Draa Valley in southern Morocco. Located in a semi-arid to arid mountainous area, the Drâa Valley faces high water stress - a situation expected to worsen due to climate change. At the same time, the region has one of the greatest potentials for solar energy in the world. To examine whether limited water availability could accelerate or delay the implementation of solar thermal and photovoltaic power plants, this paper compares regional water availability and demand in the Draa Valley for different scenarios, paying particular attention to potential socio-economic development pathways. The Water Evaluation and Planning System software is applied to allocate the water resources in the study region. The water supply is modelled under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate scenario, while the water demand for the Drâa Valley is modelled for a combination of three socio-economic and two energy scenarios. The climate scenario describes a significant decrease in water availability by 2050, while the socio-economic and energy scenarios show an increase in water demand. The results demonstrate that during a sequence of dry years the reservoirs water availability is reduced and shortages in water supply can result in high levels of unmet demand. If this situation occurs, oasis farming, water for drinking and energy production could compete directly with each other for water resources. The energy scenarios indicate that the use of dry cooling technologies in concentrated solar power and photovoltaic hybrid systems could be one option for reducing competition for the scarce water resources in the region. However, given that energy generation accounts for only a small share of the regional water demand, the results also suggest that socio-economic demand reduction, especially in the agricultural sector, for example by reducing the cultivated area, will most likely become necessary.
A clear understanding of socio-technical interdependencies and a structured vision are prerequisites for fostering and steering a transition to a fully renewables-based energy system. To facilitate such understanding, a phase model for the renewable energy (RE) transition in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries has been developed and applied to the country case of Lebanon. It is designed to support the strategy development and governance of the energy transition and to serve as a guide for decision makers.
Lebanon's energy transition towards REs stands at a very early stage of the first transformation phase. Although abundant solar and wind energy potential does exist, the pathway towards a 100% renewables energy seems very challenging for Lebanon, as a consequence of highly unstable political conditions. The most pressing concern for Lebanon's electricity sector is combating the country's fiscal imbalance, while providing secure and reliable electricity supply. At the operational level, Lebanon's grid network requires significant investments to rebuild, retrofit, and expand the overall capacity and energy efficiency improvements.
The need to strengthen the energy system after the political turmoil of the civil war is likely to offer several long-term opportunities, such as developing the economy, reducing environmental pollution, and increasing the energy security. In order to move forward into the first phase, Lebanon needs to improve the framework conditions for REs and implement its visions. It needs to support the market development in a realistic timeframe, where structural reforms represent the highest priority.
The results of the analysis along the transition phase model towards 100% renewables energy are intended to stimulate and support the discussion on Lebanon's future energy system by providing an overarching guiding vision for the energy transition and the development of appropriate policies.
Especially in the arid areas of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), water availability plays an important role in the expansion planning of industrial-scale solar power plants. Although power plants may account for only a very small portion of local water demand, competition for water with other sectors is expected to increase when water resources are insufficient for meeting local needs. This can lead to conflicts between different users (such as communities, farmers, tourism, businesses and utilities). Despite the increasing attention on the water-energy nexus, comprehensive studies analysing the interdependencies and potential conflicts between energy and water at the local level are absent.
To examine the linkages between water resources and energy technologies at the local level, this case study was selected because Morocco is one of the countries most affected by water scarcity and, at the same time, it is also one of the most promising countries in North Africa for the development of renewable energies and offers excellent conditions for solar and wind power plants. Nevertheless, the country's electricity system is still largely based on conventional energy sources, and the country is more than 95% dependent on energy imports. To strengthen the country's energy security and reduce the financial burden associated with energy imports, Morocco is pursuing an ambitious renewable energy expansion strategy: by 2020, around 42% of the national electricity demand should be met by renewable energies. In view of Morocco's ambitious plans, it is particularly important to identify the potential conflicts and synergies resulting from the expansion of renewable energies in relation to the water sector.
The energy sector today accounts for about 10% to 15% of global freshwater withdrawal. Most water in the energy sector is used for generating electricity, especially for cooling processes in thermal power plants. At the same time the demand for electricity is expected to increase significantly due to population growth and economic development in emerging and developing economies. Growing demand is also driven by electrification strategies pursued by industrialized countries to decarbonize their economies. With the global demand for electricity expected to increase significantly in the coming decades also the water demand in the power sector is expected to rise. However, due to the on-going global energy transition, the future structure of the power supply - and hence future water demand for power generation - is subject to high levels of uncertainty because the volume of water required for electricity generation varies significantly depending on both the generation technology and cooling system. In light of these challenges the objective of this analysis is to provide more systematic and robust answers in terms of the impacts of different decarbonization strategies in the electricity sector on water demand at global and regional level. The focus is on operational water use for electricity generation.
A clear understanding of socio-technical interdependencies and a structured vision are prerequisites for fostering and steering a transition to a fully renewables-based energy system. To facilitate such understanding, a phase model for the renewable energy transition in MENA countries has been developed and applied to the country case of Iraq. It is designed to support the strategy development and governance of the energy transition and to serve as a guide for decision makers.
The transition towards renewable energies is still at a very early stage in Iraq. Despite the drop in renewable technology costs over the last decade and the increasing deployment of renewables in the MENA region, the pathway towards renewable energies seems to be challenging for Iraq. This is attributable to the country's political instability and the dominant economic role played by the fossil fuel sector. The most pressing concern for Iraq's electricity sector is the need to secure a constant electricity supply. At operational level, Iraq's electricity infrastructure requires significant investment to rebuilt, retro-fit and expand its overall capacity and to improve efficiencies.
Yet, the need to rebuild the energy system after the war and the subsequent violent conflicts could offer an opportunity for a transition towards renewables that would benefit Iraq in the short term and also provide a long-term economic development perspective. To take advantage of this opportunity, Iraq needs to improve the framework conditions for renewable energies and raise awareness about the benefits it offers. Renewable energy regulations need to be introduced, market development supported, a realistic timeframe for the transition process established and an appropriate and reliable legal framework developed. The results of the analysis along the transition phase model towards 100% renewables are intended to stimulate and support the discussion about Iraq's future energy system by providing an overarching guiding vision for the energy transition and the development of appropriate policy strategies.
A clear understanding of socio-technical interdependencies and a structured vision are prerequisites for fostering and steering a transition to a fully renewables-based energy system. To facilitate such understanding, a phase model for the renewable energy transition in MENA countries has been developed and applied to the country case of Egypt. It is designed to support the strategy development and governance of the energy transition and to serve as a guide for decision makers.
Egypt, with its abundant solar and wind energy potential, has excellent preconditions to embark on the pathway towards a 100% renewable energy system. The country has successfully taken its first steps in this direction by attracting international finance and implementing several large-scale solar and wind projects. Yet, while Egypt has made significant progress, increased efforts are still required if the country aims to proceed towards a fully renewables-based system. The stronger system integration of renewable energies requires, for example, an alignment of regulations for the electricity, mobility and heat sectors. In this context, Egypt would be well advised to develop and implement an overall strategy for the energy transition that includes not only electricity generation but all sectors.
By placing a stronger focus on renewable energy, also to decarbonise the industrial sector, Egypt, as Africa's second most industrialised country, could seize the opportunity for economic development within a decarbonising global economy. The results of the analysis along the transition phase model towards 100% renewable energy are intended to stimulate and support the discussion on Egypt's future energy system by providing an overarching guiding vision for the energy transition and the development of appropriate policies.
To limit global warming, the use of carbon capture and storage technologies (CCS) is considered to be of major importance. In addition to the technical-economic, ecological and political aspects, the question of social acceptance is a decisive factor for the implementation of such low-carbon technologies. This study is the first literature review addressing the acceptance of industrial CCS (iCCS). In contrast to electricity generation, the technical options for large-scale reduction of CO2 emissions in the energy-intensive industry sector are not sufficient to achieve the targeted GHG neutrality in the industrial sector without the use of CCS. Therefore, it will be crucial to determine which factors influence the acceptance of iCCS and how these findings can be used for policy and industry decision-making processes. The results show that there has been limited research on the acceptance of iCCS. In addition, the study highlights some important differences between the acceptance of iCCS and CCS. Due to the technical diversity of future iCCS applications, future acceptance research must be able to better address the complexity of the research subject.
This report was prepared by the Wuppertal Institute in cooperation with the German Economic Institute as part of the SCI4climate.NRW project. The report aims to shed light on the possible phenomenon that the availability and costs of "green" energy sources may become a relevant location factor for basic materials produced in a climate-neutral manner in the future.
For this purpose, we introduce the term "Renewables Pull". We define Renewables Pull as the initially hypothetical phenomenon of a shift of industrial production from one region to another as a result of different marginal costs of renewable energies (or of secondary energy sources or feedstocks based on renewable energies).
Shifts in industrial production in the sense of Renewables Pull can in principle be caused by differences in the stringency of climate policies in different countries, as in the case of Carbon Leakage. Unlike Carbon Leakage, however, Renewables Pull can also occur if similarly ambitious climate policies are implemented in different countries. This is because Renewables Pull is primarily determined by differences in the costs and availability of renewable energies. In addition, Renewables Pull can also be triggered by cost reductions of renewable energies and by changing preferences on the demand side towards climate-friendly products. Another important difference to Carbon Leakage is that the Renewables Pull effect does not necessarily counteract climate policy.
Similar to Carbon Leakage, it is to be expected that Renewables Pull could become relevant primarily for very energy-intensive products in basic materials industries. In these sectors (e.g. in the steel or chemical industry), there is also the possibility that relocations of specific energy-intensive parts of the production process could trigger domino effects. As a result, large parts of the value chains previously existing in a country or region could also be subjected to an (indirect) Renewables Pull effect.
For the federal state of NRW, in which the basic materials industry plays an important role, the possible emergence of Renewables Pull is associated with significant challenges as climate policy in Germany, the EU and also worldwide is expected to become more ambitious in the future.
This report aims to enable and initiate a deeper analysis of the potential future developments and challenges associated with the Renewables Pull effect. Thus, in the final chapter of the report, several research questions are formulated that can be answered in the further course of the SCI4climate.NRW project as well as in other research projects.
The target of zero emissions sets a new standard for industry and industrial policy. Industrial policy in the twenty-first century must aim to achieve zero emissions in the energy and emissions intensive industries. Sectors such as steel, cement, and chemicals have so far largely been sheltered from the effects of climate policy. A major shift is needed, from contemporary industrial policy that mainly protects industry to policy strategies that transform the industry. For this purpose, we draw on a wide range of literatures including engineering, economics, policy, governance, and innovation studies to propose a comprehensive industrial policy framework. The policy framework relies on six pillars: directionality, knowledge creation and innovation, creating and reshaping markets, building capacity for governance and change, international coherence, and sensitivity to socio-economic implications of phase-outs. Complementary solutions relying on technological, organizational, and behavioural change must be pursued in parallel and throughout whole value chains. Current policy is limited to supporting mainly some options, e.g. energy efficiency and recycling, with some regions also adopting carbon pricing, although most often exempting the energy and emissions intensive industries. An extended range of options, such as demand management, materials efficiency, and electrification, must also be pursued to reach zero emissions. New policy research and evaluation approaches are needed to support and assess progress as these industries have hitherto largely been overlooked in domestic climate policy as well as international negotiations.
On the pathway to climate neutrality, EU member states are obliged to submit national energy and climate plans (NECPs) with planned policies and measures for decarbonization until 2030 and long-term strategies (LTSs) for further decarbonization until 2050. We analysed the 27 NECPs and 15 LTSs submitted by October 2020 using an interrater method. This paper focuses on energy sufficiency policies and measures in the transport sector.
We found a total of 236 sufficiency policy measures with more than half of them (53 %) in the transport/mobility sector. Additionally, we found 41 measures that address two or more sectors (cross-sectoral measures). From the explicit sufficiency measures within the transport sector, 82 % aim at modal shift. A reduction of transport volumes is much less addressed. Countries plan to use mainly fiscal and economic instruments. Those are in many cases investments in infrastructure of low-carbon transport modes and taxation instruments. Plans on decarbonisation measures are also frequently mentioned. The majority of cross-sectoral measures are carbon taxes or tax reforms, also economic instruments.
On the one hand it is encouraging that Member States strongly emphasize the transport sector in their NECPs and LTSs - at least quantitatively and concerning sufficiency measures - because this sector has been the worst-performing in climate mitigation so far. On the other hand, the measures described seem not sufficient to reach ambitious climate targets, and we doubt that the presented set of policy instruments will get the transport sector on track to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in the necessary extent.
The unprecedented challenge of reaching carbon neutrality before mid-century and a large share of it within 2030 in order to keep under the 1.5 or 2 °C carbon budgets, requires broad and deep changes in production and consumption patterns which, together with a shift to renewables and reinforced efficiency, need to be addressed through energy sufficiency. However, inadequate representations and obstacles to characterising and identifying sufficiency potentials often lead to an underrepresentation of sufficiency in models, scenarios and policies.
One way to tackle this issue is to work on the development of sufficiency assumptions at a concrete level where various implications such as social consequences, environmental co-benefits, conditions for implementation can be discussed. This approach has been developed as the backbone of a collaborative project, gathering partners in 20 European countries at present, aiming for the integration of harmonised national scenarios into an ambitious net-zero European vision.
The approach combines a qualitative discussion on the role of energy sufficiency in a "systemic" merit order for global sustainability, and a quantitative discussion of the level of sufficiency to be set to contribute to meeting 100 % renewables supply and net-zero emissions goals by 2050 at the latest. The latter is based on the use of a dashboard, which serves as a common descriptive framework for all national scenario trajectories and their comparison, with a view to harmonising and strengthening them through an iterative process.
A set of key sufficiency-related indicators have been selected to be included in the dashboard, while various interrelated infrastructural, economic, environmental, social or legal factors or drivers have been identified and mapped. This paves the way for strengthening assumptions through the elaboration of "sufficiency corridors" defining a convergent, acceptable and sustainable level of energy services in Europe. The process will eventually inform the potential for sufficiency policies through a better identification of leverages, impacts and co-benefits.
Local implementation projects for sector coupling play an important role in the transformation to a more sustainable energy system. Despite various technical possibilities, there are various barriers to the realisation of local projects. Against this backdrop, we introduce an inter- and transdisciplinary approach to identifying and evaluating different power-to-X paths as well as setting up robust local implementation projects, which account for existing drivers and potential hurdles early on. After developing the approach conceptually, we exemplify our elaborations by applying them to a use case in the German city of Wuppertal. It can be shown that a mix of several interlinked interdisciplinary methods as well as several participatory elements is suitable for triggering a collective, local innovation process. However, the timing and extent of end-user integration remain a balancing act. The paper does not focus on a detailed description of power-to-X (PtX) as a central pillar of the sustainable transformation of the energy system. Rather, it focuses on the innovative methodological approach used to select a suitable use path and design a corresponding business model. The research approach was successfully implemented in the specific case study. However, it also becomes clear that the local-specific consideration entails limitations with regard to the transferability of the research design to other spatial contexts.
The basic materials industries are a cornerstone of Europe's economic prosperity, increasing gross value added and providing around 2 million high-quality jobs. But they are also a major source of greenhouse gas emissions. Despite efficiency improvements, emissions from these industries were mostly constant for several years prior to the Covid-19 crisis and today account for 20 per cent of the EU's total greenhouse gas emissions.
A central question is therefore: How can the basic material industries in the EU become climate-neutral by 2050 while maintaining a strong position in a highly competitive global market? And how can these industries help the EU reach the higher 2030 climate target - a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions of at least 55 per cent relative to 1990 levels?
In the EU policy debate on the European Green Deal, many suppose that the basic materials industries can do little to achieve deep cuts in emissions by 2030. Beyond improvements to the efficiency of existing technologies, they assume that no further innovations will be feasible within that period. This study takes a different view. It shows that a more ambitious approach involving the early implementation of key low-carbon technologies and a Clean Industry Package is not just possible, but in fact necessary to safeguard global competitiveness.
The number of input-output assessments focused on energy has grown considerably in the last years. Many of these assessments combine data from multi-regional input-output (MRIO) databases with energy extensions that completely or partially depict the different stages through which energy products are supplied or used in the economy.
The improper use of some energy extensions can lead to double accounting of some energy flows, but the frequency with which this happens and the potential impact on the results are unknown. Based on a literature review, we estimate that around a quarter of the MRIO-based energy assessments reviewed incurred into double accounting. Using the EXIOBASE MRIO database, we also analyse the effects of double accounting in the absolute values and rankings of different countries' and products' energy footprints.
Building on the insights provided by our analysis, we offer a set of key recommendations to MRIO users to avoid the double accounting problem in the future. Likewise, we conclude that the harmonisation of the energy data across MRIO databases led by experts could simplify the choices of the data users until the provision of official energy extensions by statistical offices becomes a widespread practice.
Despite Germany's Paris Agreement pledge and coal exit legislation, the political debate around carbon-intensive coal remains heated. Coal power and mining have played an important, yet changing role in the history of German politics. In this paper, we analyze the entire parliamentary debate on coal in the German parliament (Bundestag) from its inception in 1949 to 2019. For this purpose we extract the more than 870,000 parliamentary speeches from all protocols in the history of the Bundestag. We identify the 9167 speeches mentioning coal and apply dynamic topic modeling – an unsupervised machine learning technique that reveals the changing thematic structure of large document collections over time - to analyze changes in parliamentary debates on coal over the past 70 years. The trends in topics and their varying internal structure reflect how energy policy was discussed and legitimized over time: Initially, coal was framed as a driver of economic prosperity and guarantee of energy security. In recent years, the debate evolved towards energy transition, coal phase-out and renewable energy expansion. Germany’s smaller and younger parties, the Greens and the Left Party, debate coal more often in the context of the energy transition and climate protection than other parties. Our results reflect trends in other countries and other fields of energy policy. Methodologically, our study illustrates the potential of and need for computational methods to analyze vast corpora of text and to complement traditional social science methods.
In the Paris Accord to the UN Climate Change Conference COP21 in 2015, the international community agreed to "make every effort" to reach a significant reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to limit global average temperature rise to preferably 1.5°C by 2100 (UNFCC 2018). A transition to a climate-friendly energy supply, however, would come largely at the expense of coal - a fossil fuel with large global reserves that are also widely dispersed regionally. Therefore, especially since the turn of the millennium, the question has been raised as to how coal could be used in a climate-friendly way in the future. So far, the only way to do this is to apply CCS technology or CCU. CCS involves the capture of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel-fired power plants or industrial sources and its storage underground, such as in deep saline aquifers or in depleted oil and natural gas fields, or their use for enhanced oil or gas recovery (EOR/EGR). When carbon capture and utilisation (CCU) is applied, the CO2 is further used, for example as feedstock for the production of durable plastics. Due to the relatively low potential of CCU compared to CCS (IPCC 2005), only CCS is considered in this thesis.
The majority of studies and roadmaps have discussed CCS as a technology option that could make a significant contribution to achieving the objective of decreasing GHG emissions for many years (IPCC 2014a, 2018). Particularly in the power sector, however, these expectations have not yet been met. As of November 2019, worldwide only two small base-load power plants, capturing a total of 2.4 Mt CO2/year and mainly using it for EOR, are in operation, together with a few pilots in industrial applications and, in particular, natural gas processing (in total 30 Mt CO2/year) (Global CCS Institute 2019).
Early on, it became clear that the predicted high deployment targets and their underlying studies should be critically questioned for various reasons. Particularly due to the lack of a systems-analytical evaluation of this technology (which was relatively new at the time), no reliable answers could be given about the ecological, economic, social and structural effects of its large-scale application. Such analyses are, however, a pre-condition for comprehensively classifying the contribution of a new technology as a promising option for a sustainable energy supply system and assessing it in comparison to other technologies.
To address these challenges, several studies, most of which initiated by the author, were conducted on this topic between 2004 and 2018. The resulting papers became the basis for this thesis.
We conduct a systematic, interdisciplinary review of empirical literature assessing evidence on induced innovation in energy and related technologies. We explore links between demand-drivers (both market-wide and targeted); indicators of innovation (principally, patents); and outcomes (cost reduction, efficiency, and multi-sector/macro consequences). We build on existing reviews in different fields and assess over 200 papers containing original data analysis. Papers linking drivers to patents, and indicators of cumulative capacity to cost reductions (experience curves), dominate the literature. The former does not directly link patents to outcomes; the latter does not directly test for the causal impact of on cost reductions). Diverse other literatures provide additional evidence concerning the links between deployment, innovation activities, and outcomes. We derive three main conclusions. (1) Demand-pull forces enhance patenting; econometric studies find positive impacts in industry, electricity and transport sectors in all but a few specific cases. This applies to all drivers - general energy prices, carbon prices, and targeted interventions that build markets. (2) Technology costs decline with cumulative investment for almost every technology studied across all time periods, when controlled for other factors. Numerous lines of evidence point to dominant causality from at-scale deployment (prior to self-sustaining diffusion) to cost reduction in this relationship. (3) Overall Innovation is cumulative, multi-faceted, and self-reinforcing in its direction (path-dependent). We conclude with brief observations on implications for modeling and policy. In interpreting these results, we suggest distinguishing the economics of active deployment, from more passive diffusion processes, and draw the following implications. There is a role for policy diversity and experimentation, with evaluation of potential gains from innovation in the broadest sense. Consequently, endogenising innovation in large-scale models is important for deriving policy-relevant conclusions. Finally, seeking to relate quantitative economic evaluation to the qualitative socio-technical transitions literatures could be a fruitful area for future research.