Energie-, Verkehrs- und Klimapolitik
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Residential buildings were the source of 11.6 % of Germany's greenhouse gas emissions in 2023, emitting around 78 million tonnes of CO2e, mostly due to inefficient heating and inadequate energy efficiency. This needs to be reduced to near zero by 2045. This will involve deep energy performance renovation of some 23 million dwellings, which is expensive and seldom pays back through energy cost savings. Around 43 % of all rental dwellings, almost 10 million, are owned by small private landlords, most of whom show little enthusiasm for deep energy performance investment. Instead, they tend to save small amounts and spend these on piecemeal renovations, while avoiding debt. This study explores the potential of a novel savings and loan scheme that would better accord with their saving capacity, be profitable for banks, and fund large, one-off deep energy performance upgrades. It rests on the fact that the long-term, committed savings of landlords could act as M1 collateral for banks to create large amounts of new M2 money by issuing loans, from which they make reasonable profits. This would enable banks to offer low-interest loans to small private landlords who commit to such savings. These landlords would continue to commit monthly amounts, but these would be savings for only the first few years, then loan repayments. With the savings and loan scheme, we are contributing to the debate on new and creative ways to incentivize specific target groups to accelerate the decarbonization of the building stock.
Mitte Oktober 2024 veröffentlichten das Wuppertal Institut und der Club of Rome ihr Buch "Earth for All Deutschland - Aufbruch in eine Zukunft für Alle". Darin präsentieren sie Vorschläge, wie Umweltkrisen überwunden und gleichzeitig Demokratie und Wohlstand gesichert werden können. Denn: Die Herausforderungen sollten nicht isoliert betrachtet werden, sondern die dafür notwendigen Lösungsbausteine können sich positiv ergänzen und gegenseitig verstärken. Im Buch beleuchten die Autor*innen sechs ineinandergreifende Wenden, die für einen gesellschaftlichen Wandel am ausschlaggebendsten sein werden: die Überwindung von Armut, den Abbau von Ungleichheit, einen anderen Umgang mit Ressourcen, die Förderung von Empowerment, eine nachhaltige Ernährung und das Vorantreiben der Energiewende.
Mit diesem Wuppertal Paper legt Peter Hennicke, Mitglied des Club of Rome und Senior Advisor am Wuppertal Institut, einen Deep Dive speziell zur Energiewende vor. Darin betont er besonders die notwendige Kombination der drei Säulen Effizienz, Konsistenz und Suffizienz, die für eine nachhaltige Klima- und Energiepolitik essentiell sind.
Hennicke umreißt dazu zunächst die kontroverse Geschichte der deutschen Energiewende seit den 1980er Jahren. Auf dieser Basis widmet er sich aktuellen und zu erwartenden Interessenkonflikten sowie bestehenden Pfadabhängigkeiten - etwa der Abhängigkeit des Verkehrssektors von fossilen Energien - und skizziert Politikmaßnahmen, mit denen sich diese auflösen lassen. Demgegenüber stellt er ein Szenario des "Weiter so", in dem die dringend benötigte sozial-ökologische Transformation nicht entschlossen genug vorangetrieben wird, und beschreibt die absehbar gravierenden Folgen für Wirtschaft, Umwelt und Gesellschaft. Anschließend geht Hennicke auf die Finanzierbarkeit und die gesellschaftliche Umsetzbarkeit der gleichzeitigen Durchführung aller sechs Kehrtwenden ein und erläutert, was die Wissenschaft tun kann, um die Politik dabei zu unterstützen und ihr die dafür notwendige breite Wissensbasis zur Verfügung zu stellen.
The transport sector is not on track to meet the Paris Agreement climate targets. Rapid decarbonization of transport requires fuel switching and energy savings through modal shift and demand reduction - which are the aims of transport-sufficiency policy. We analyze passenger transport-policy instruments collected in the European Sufficiency Policy Database. Applying the concept of impact chains, we examine the ways in which proposed policy instruments function from cause/policy stimulus to effect/impact, with a focus on the factors relevant to the feasibility of policy implementation in Germany. This allows us to compare implementation feasibility by policy target and by instrument type. Based on our analysis of supporting factors, barriers, and risks, we find that policy instruments with many supporting factors also tend to have many barriers and risks. This is often the case with broad instruments that have diverse relevant factors. We observe that the policy targets "promotion of active modes" and "reduction of motorized individual transport" have the fewest risks because they tend to be less intensive in cost, material, and labor. Feasibility also varies between instrument types, with regulatory instruments unexpectedly showing the fewest risks and a similar number of barriers as economic instruments and as many supporting factors as fiscal instruments. This analysis enhances the understanding of which policies are easier to implement and how feasibility is interconnected with other instruments.
Residential buildings were the source of 11.6 % of Germany's greenhouse gas emissions in 2023, emitting around 78 million tonnes of CO2e, mostly due to inefficient heating and inadequate energy efficiency. This needs to be reduced to near zero by 2045. This will involve deep energy performance renovation of some 23 million dwellings, which is expensive and seldom pays back through energy cost savings. Around 43 % of all rental dwellings, almost 10 million, are owned by small private landlords, most of whom show little enthusiasm for deep energy performance investment. Instead, they tend to save small amounts and spend these on piecemeal renovations, while avoiding debt. This study explores the potential of a novel savings and loan scheme that would better accord with their saving capacity, be profitable for banks, and fund large, one-off deep energy performance upgrades. It rests on the fact that the long-term, committed savings of landlords could act as M1 collateral for banks to create large amounts of new M2 money by issuing loans, from which they make reasonable profits. This would enable banks to offer low-interest loans to small private landlords who commit to such savings. These landlords would continue to commit monthly amounts, but these would be savings for only the first few years, then loan repayments. With the savings and loan scheme, we are contributing to the debate on new and creative ways to incentivize specific target groups to accelerate the decarbonization of the building stock.
Charting future emissions pathways is a central tenet of IPCC assessment reports (AR), yet it is unclear how underlying drivers (including around policy and technology) have influenced the evolution of emissions pathways. Here we compare scenarios in AR5 and AR6 and find that scenarios without specific climate policies enforced have shifted lower in each scenario generation, owing to falling low-carbon technology costs and reduced expectations for economic growth, reducing fossil-fuel shares in energy and industry. Mitigation pathways consistent with 1.5-2 °C have seen increasing electrification rates and higher shares of variable renewables in electricity in more recent scenario generations, implying reduced reliance on coal, nuclear, bioenergy and carbon capture and storage, reflecting changing costs. Despite the shrinking carbon budget due to insufficient recent climate action, mitigation costs have not increased given more optimistic low-carbon technology cost projections. Moving forward, scenario producers must continually recalibrate to keep abreast of technology, policy and societal developments to remain policy relevant.
Breaking the silos : integrated approaches to foster sustainable development and climate action
(2025)
A number of critical disconnects across sectors, actors continue to affect implementation action on sustainable development and climate action. Even when technical solutions, political commitments, and funding streams are avaiable, implementation often remains siloed and fragmented. This debate piece does not present definitive solutions or conclusive evidence; rather, it aims to foster critical reflection on how co-design, participatory approaches, Living Labs, and epistemically connected actor coalitions may help break down institutional and conceptual barriers. It proposes the SCALE framework [Shared epistemic foundations, Cross-sectoral integration, Adaptive co-design, Local enabling environments, and Evaluation & expansion) as way of operationalising the Safe Systems for Sustainable Development concept presented in Lah 2024, exploring how knowledge integration, iterative experimentation, and locally grounded solutuions can help creating implementation partnerships that last. This approach highlights questions concerning resource intensity, longevity, and scalability that must be addressed. By facilitating co-design, testing and validation of concrete solutions at the local level, the approach presented in this paper invites policymakers, researchers, practitioners, and civil society actors to engage in a more nuanced and constructive debate on whether, how, and under what conditions sustainable development solutions are considered to be viable and hence can endure even in politically volatile environments.
Although international efforts toward vehicle electrification in Southeast Asia have primarily focused on four-wheeled vehicles, greater emphasis must be directed toward two-wheeled vehicles (2 W). Southeast Asia has the world's highest rate of 2 W penetration, particularly in Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia. These vehicles are popular in this region mainly due to the limited public transportation, their agility on narrow roads, and their ability to maneuver through heavy traffic. Additionally, 2Ws provide a flexible and affordable transportation option, significantly enhancing accessibility and last-mile connectivity to existing public transit networks. However, the vast majority of 2Ws in the region still rely on internal combustion engine (ICE), contributing significantly to urban air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Considering the significant role of 2Ws in transporting people and goods throughout Southeast Asia, electrifying this sector offers a substantial potential to mitigate climate impact. This paper advocates for collaborative initiatives across digital platforms, financial mechanisms, and supportive government policies to accelerate the adoption of electric 2Ws (E2Ws) by promoting local production, fostering innovative business models, and establishing conducive regulatory frameworks. A robust E2Ws ecosystem, local E2Ws in the region will require increased cooperation among local E2W and charging equipment manufacturers within the global supply chain, ensuring the development and distribution of environmentally sustainable, technologically advanced, and competitively priced products. Furthermore, E2Ws producers must develop and implement various innovative business models, particularly around battery reuse and recycling, developed in partnership with market stakeholders, including digital platform companies with high growth potential. The financial sector can play a crucial role by creating advanced financing solutions to ease consumer access to E2Ws. Lastly, the governments must support this transition through both financial and non-financial policies, including technical standards, offer preferential policies for E2Ws and charging equipment, and facilitating rapid development.
Das Wuppertal Institut wurde vom Rat für Nachhaltige Entwicklung beauftragt, Beispiele erfolgreicher Transformationen hinsichtlich ihrer Gelingensfaktoren zu analysieren, um daraus bundespolitische Maßnahmen zur Förderung und Skalierung kommunaler Nachhaltigkeitsaktivitäten ableiten zu können. Dafür wurden 14 Beispiele aus sechs Transformationsbereichen mit einem eigens konzipierten Analyseraster untersucht und in Factsheets kompakt aufbereitet.
Als kleiner Ausschnitt eines vielfältigen Engagements im Nachhaltigkeitsbereich zeigen die ausgewählten Beispiele, wie günstige Rahmenbedingungen eine Ermöglichungskultur schaffen, die die Diffusion erfolgreicher Praktiken erleichtert. Auf Bundesebene bedeutet dies einen Wandel vom steuernden zum ermöglichenden Staat, der lokale Spielräume erweitert und gleichzeitig die Koordination und Richtungssicherheit sowie die horizontale und vertikale Kohärenz der Instrumente sicherstellt. Trotz projektspezifischer und teils hoher Hürden lassen sich zentrale Gelingensfaktoren identifizieren: Anschlussfähigkeit an bewährte Maßnahmen, Sicherstellung der langfristigen Finanzierbarkeit, aktive Beteiligung lokaler Akteur*innen und eine geringe Konfliktwahrscheinlichkeit in der Umsetzung. Besonders hohe Akzeptanz genießen zudem Maßnahmen, die unter Einbindung und Vernetzung verschiedener gesellschaftlicher Akteur*innen umgesetzt worden sind.
Angesichts der immensen finanziellen Herausforderungen zur Schaffung und Wahrung nachhaltiger Lebenswelten stehen viele Kommunen vor einer fast unlösbaren Aufgabe, zumal tiefgreifende Veränderungen bis in die Lebensgewohnheiten der Menschen hinein nötig sind. Ein konsistenter und richtungssicherer Mix aus verschiedenen Lenkungsinstrumenten und von hoher Akzeptanz ist daher essentiell. Die untersuchten Transformationsbeispiele sind ein erster Einstieg in erforderliche Vertiefungsanalysen zur Wirkmächtigkeit potenzieller und konsistenter Politikpakete und deren Wechselwirkungen mit anderen Instrumenten im Mehrebenensystem.
Gender imbalance in the transport sector is a growing concern. Worldwide, women are significantly underrepresented among transport decision-makers, planners, and workers. Gender diversity is notably lacking in popular transport in the global South, where minibuses and two- and three-wheelers are almost exclusively operated by men. Popular transport therefore often fails to reflect and represent the needs of women, and their exclusion from transport professions limits their full participation in social and economic development. Hence, using the case of motorcycle taxi driving in Kigali, Rwanda, this research aims to address the gender gap in popular transport provision. We conducted an online survey targeting the female population of Kigali (N = 306). Guided by the theory of planned behavior and social norm theory, our analysis utilizes structural equation modeling to measure the extent to which women intend to become motorcycle taxi drivers and identify contributing factors. Our results show that 47.7 % of respondents are interested in this profession. This interest is primarily driven by individual factors such as attitudes and perceived behavioral control, rather than external influences and subjective norms. However, structural barriers such as safety and security concerns, domestic and familial responsibilities, and limited access to financial resources persist. It is imperative to reshape narratives and perceptions of popular transport professions within media and policy frameworks, if gender equality and women's participation in this sector are to be enhanced. Additionally, facilitating access for women to driving training programs and vehicle loans can empower them to overcome barriers and facilitate entry and advancement of women in the industry.
At the end of February 2025, the EU Commission published the Clean Industrial Deal (CID). The paper describes how the decarbonization of European industry, the strengthening of competitiveness and innovation and the improvement of security of supply can be achieved together. To this end, the CID outlines a series of planned legislative initiatives and thus sets the guidelines for European industrial policy in the coming years. In an initial assessment, 14 researchers from the Wuppertal Institute analyze what the CID means for European - and thus indirectly for German - industrial policy.
