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Year of Publication
Document Type
- Peer-Reviewed Article (865) (remove)
Division
The sensitivity of climate phenomena in the low latitudes to enhanced greenhouse conditions is a scientific issue of high relevance to billions of people in the poorest countries of the globe. So far, most studies dealt with individual model results. In the present analysis, we refer to 79 coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations from 12 different climate models under 6 different IPCC scenarios. The basic question is as to what extent various state-of-the-art climate models agree in predicting changes in the main features of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the monsoon climates in South Asia and West Africa. The individual model runs are compared with observational data in order to judge whether the spatio-temporal characteristics of ENSO are well reproduced. The model experiments can be grouped into multi-model ensembles. Thus, climate change signals in the classical index time series, in the principal components and in the time series of interannual variability can be evaluated against the background of internal variability and model uncertainty.
There are large differences between the individual model predictions until the end of the 21st century, especially in terms of monsoon rainfall and the Southern Oscillation index (SOI). The majority of the models tends to project La Niña-like anomalies in the SOI and an intensification of the summer monsoon precipitation in India and West Africa. However, the response barely exceeds the level of natural variability and the systematic intermodel variations are larger than the impact of different IPCC scenarios. Nonetheless, there is one prominent climate change signal, which stands out from model variations and internal noise: All forced model experiments agree in predicting a substantial warming in the eastern tropical Pacific. This oceanic heating does not necessarily lead to a modification of ENSO towards more frequent El Niño and/or La Niña events. It simply represents a change in the background state of ENSO. Indeed, we did not find convincing multi-model evidence for a modification of the wavelet spectra in terms of ENSO or the monsoons. Some models suggest an intensification of the annual cycle but this signal is fairly model-dependent. Thus, large model uncertainty still exists with respect to the future behaviour of climate in the low latitudes. This has to be taken into account when addressing climate change signals in individual model experiments and ensembles.
The international climate negotiations have seen endless struggles between countries from South and North for almost 17 years, ever since the initiation of negotiations by the International Negotiation Committee (INC) for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The 13th meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC and the 3rd meeting of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (COP 13 / CMP 3) held in Bali in December 2007 (the Bali conference) could mark the beginning of a rapprochement. Parties agreed on initiating a new "Ad-hoc working group on Long-Term Cooperative Action under the Convention" (AWG-LCA) that aims to negotiate a post-2012 agreement with participation of all parties, including the US and developing countries, by the end of 2009 at COP 15 / CMP 5 in Copenhagen. This article examines the outcomes of the Bali conference, focussing on the negotiations regarding post-2012, flexible mechanisms, financial mechanisms, technology transfer and deforestation. Finally, the article concludes that the Bali Conference saw a significant shift in the battle lines, a rearrangement of positions and alliances that might well announce a decisive new era in global climate policy and provides a real chance to agree on an effective and workable post-2012 agreement in Copenhagen.
World primary copper production is expected to increase due to growing demand. Reflecting the geographical divergence of copper deposits and demanding industries, copper is produced by various production paths, differing in regional and technological aspects and related environmental pressures. For the mitigation of environmental pressures related to global material flows and a more sustainable resource management, policy makers, producers and buyers require information on regional resource efficiencies and effects of the key processes within the global production chain. This study quantifies material flows of refined copper production and environmental pressures along the pyro‐ and hydrometallurgical paths for Chile and Germany. Inventories for involved unit processes are distinguished by region and most commonly applied technologies, including electric power supply. Different production paths are compared by environmental pressure indicators (primary energy requirements, total material requirements, water consumption, GHG emissions, solid waste disposal, sulphur dioxide and arsenic emissions). Alternative options for improvement of technologies and supply patterns in Chile and Germany are compared.
This paper looks at improving resource productivity at global value chains. Resource flows from its extraction through the manufacturing and use phase towards its end-of-life – increasingly crossing national boundaries. Effective improvement in resource productivity requires actions beyond a country’s territory. This article focuses on non-renewable resource flows and analysis how developed countries are involved in four distinct phases of global value chains, and how this involvement links to changes in resource efficiency. Resource extraction and associated early processes activities have been increasingly moved from developed to developing countries. Offshoring manufacturing activities also becomes a common phenomenon. Throughout these activities, lower rates of resource productivity during extraction and manufacturing are frequently observed, leading not only to international burden shifting, but most likely letting these burdens grow. If appropriate international measures across the global divides are applied, resource efficiency potentials could be realised through offshoring and global consumption and recycling could also offer opportunities for resource productivity. International actions to improve resource productivity can help to meet economic and environmental objectives at the same time over a global value chain. It could also safeguard countries against unintended indirect and side effects from the relocation of resource flows and help the private sector to benefit from opportunities in global markets for resource efficiency.
Die Ausarbeitung eines Konzepts für Nachhaltigkeitsbildung, welches das Ziel hat, nachhaltige Lebensstile zu befördern, muss zwei Barrieren überwinden können: die eine vom Nichtwissen zum Wissen, die andere vom Wissen zum Handeln. Sie zu überwinden, haben sich u. a. zwei Forschungsstränge zum Ziel gesetzt: Die pädagogische Kompetenzforschung, welche die für eine nachhaltige Denk- und Handlungsweise notwendigen Fähigkeiten aufdeckt, und die umweltpsychologische Theorieentwicklung, welche das Zusammenspiel von Umweltbewusstsein und andere auf das Umwelthandeln einwirkende Faktoren fokussiert. Die "Forschungsgruppe Nachhaltiges Produzieren und Konsumieren" des Wuppertal Instituts hat durch den Versuch, beide Stränge zu integrieren, ein eigenes Bildungs- und Kommunikationskonzept zur Förderung nachhaltiger Denk- und Handlungsweisen entwickelt und in die praktische Bildungsarbeit übersetzt. Die Theorie und Praxis dieses Bildungskonzepts sollen hier vorgestellt werden.
In this article, we analyze flows of the platinum group metals (PGMs) platinum, palladium, and rhodium and the environmental impacts associated with their supply in Europe. A model of the use of PGMs in Europe has been developed, and this is combined with a model of environmental pressures related to PGM production. Seven industrial sectors and product groups form the main users of PGMs in Europe, comprising the chemical, petroleum, and glass industries; jewelry, dentistry, electronic equipment, and car catalysts. Most relevant environmental impacts of secondary production in Europe and primary PGM production in South Africa, Russia, and Canada are taken into account, including emissions of sulphur dioxide and carbon dioxide and total material requirement. The article quantifies the PGM flows to, from, and within Europe in 2004. The automotive industry is the single largest user of primary PGMs, and catalytic converters represent the major PGM end use. The chemical and glass industries also require large amounts of PGM but rely mostly on secondary metals. The environmental impacts of primary production exceed those of secondary production by far. An analysis of the use of car catalytic converters shows that as a result of efforts to reduce air pollutant emissions in Europe, other negative environmental impacts, such as point-source pollution and mining waste, are occurring elsewhere - for example, at extraction and refining sites in Siberia and South Africa.
Die drei Partner der Europäischen Gesetzgebung haben sich Ende Juni 2008 auf die Einbeziehung des Luftverkehrs in den Europäischen Emissionshandel verständigt. Das Besondere daran ist, dass nicht lediglich der EU-interne, sondern der "internationale" Luftverkehr der EU adressiert wurde, d.h. sämtliche EU-Territorium berührenden Flüge einbezogen sind. Diese "sektorale" Ausweitung des Emissionshandels hat in mehrererlei Hinsicht Pilotcharakter: (i) für die regionale Ausweitung des Emissionshandels der EU; (ii) für den Typ "Sektorabkommen" unter der UNFCCC-Nachfolgeregelung ab 2013; und (iii) für den Ansatz "asymmetrischer" Erweiterung des Klimaregimes seitens einer Regionalmacht, die gewillt ist, eine Vorreiterrolle einzunehmen, aber nicht bereit ist, dafür Wettbewerbsnachteile hinzunehmen. Dass der für (Langstrecken-) Luftverkehr spezifische zusätzliche Klimaeffekt nicht in Ansatz gebracht wurde, hat hier, in der WTO-Konfliktträchtigkeit des Vorgangs, seinen Grund.
Building a "theory of sustainable development" : two salient conceptions within the German discourse
(2008)
This paper identifies a lack in sustainability science, of a well-founded normative basis, for the justification of sustainable development. In order to fill this gap, we aim at calling attention to two of the salient conceptions in the German discourse, namely the "Theory of Strong Sustainability" developed at the University of Greifswald and the "Integrative Sustainability Concept" proposed by the Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres (HGF), the biggest research institution in Germany. Both conceptions highly value the justification of a strong theoretical and normative core of sustainable development. This paper suggests that a well-founded "theory of sustainable development" provides the distinctiveness that allows the assessment whether or not there is progress towards sustainability. A clear scientific comprehension of sustainability may inform politics in sustainability affairs and function as a rational corrective for the otherwise diffuse discussion in the general public.
This article introduces elements of a global governance regime for sustainable resource management. It argues that such an approach is needed to combat the negative impacts arising from resource extraction and use as well as to overcome the co‐ordination problems of decentralized action. A first section summarizes main conflicts arising from limited access to natural resources and security of supply, environmental impacts and the performance of resource‐rich developing countries. A second section analyses existing initiatives for sustainable resource management such as resource funds, efforts to increase transparency, programmes in development co‐operation, standards and certification, material efficiency and resource productivity as well as efforts to limit the consumption of natural resources. Though these initiative have their merits, the article concludes that more systematic institutional mechanisms are needed. The third section introduces those institutional mechanisms: it describes the International Panel for Sustainable Resource Management (launched in November 2007), outlines elements of an international convention on sustainable resource management, develops the agenda for an international agency on the issue and discusses the interaction with existing international bodies such as the World Trade Organization. Written as a policy paper, the paper formulates proposals for various actors, from small‐scale miners to large‐scale global companies and governments. Its intention is to stimulate the debate and to broaden the horizon on the global dimension of using minerals.