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A desirable future critically depends on our ability to ensure the supply of key resources while simultaneously respecting planetary boundaries. This paper looks at the potential implications of living within the "safe operating space" for people, business and the economy. It develops a positive vision of the future based on three pillars: a safe and fair use of global resources, a sustainable society, and a transformed economy. We review and build on recent sustainability visions to develop a holistic reflection on what life in 2050 could look like, and explore the key changes in the economy needed to get there. In particular we show that resource efficiency requires a systemic shift in values, innovation, governance and management regimes. We present a bold vision for Europe underlined by indicators and targets, explore transition challenges to getting there and conclude with a list of key policies needed for overcoming challenges and reaching the vision.
While strategic studies on natural resources usually focus on the criticality of certain single materials, our paper starts from the inter-linkages between and among resources (called "the resource nexus"). It examines the impact any food and water stress may have on extraction activities in fragile states and regions. According to our approach, conflicts are likely to increase and may escalate in a number of countries, many of which are of relevance for the global supply of strategic materials. Future criticality for European and other industries, thus, is more likely to result from particular regions surpassing their adaptive capacities, and not mainly from limited availability or bottlenecks in the supply chain. The paper first develops a heuristic model of drivers for stress in resource-rich regions. Applying this approach, our paper then develops a global three-layered map along the dimensions of (i) future regional food and water stress, (ii) fragility of countries, and (iii) resource-rich countries with relevant reserves of strategic materials. As a result our paper tentatively identifies 15 countries at high risk and some 30 other countries being at relevant risk of causing resource supply disruptions. The conclusions underline the need to analyse those global inter-linkages and institutional mechanisms for strategic futures studies at a regional scale. As this may go beyond the capacities of actors on commodity markets, our paper also draws conclusions towards the establishment of an international data hub on the global resource nexus and for futures research. The paper points to some of the long-term implications of these issues.
In the past few decades, geochemically scarce metals have
become increasingly relevant for emerging technologies in
domains such as energy supply and storage, information and
communication, lighting or transportation, which are regarded as
cornerstones in the transition towards a sustainable post-fossil
society. Accordingly, the supply risks of scarce metals and possible
interventions towards their more sustainable use have been
subject to an intense debate in recent studies. In this article, we
integrate proposed intervention options into a generic life cycle
framework, taking into account issues related to knowledge
provision and to the institutional setting. As a result, we obtain
a landscape of intervention fields that will have to be further
specified to more specific intervention profiles for scarce metals
or metals families. The envisioned profiles are expected to have
the potential to reduce action contingency and to contribute to
meeting the sustainability claims often associated with emerging
technol ogies.
Dieser Beitrag stellt Ressourcenproduktivität als Kernstrategie vor. Schließlich kann sie nicht nur als Entschlackungskur fungieren, sondern auch als Innovationsmotor. Darüber hinaus wird ein Vorschlag zu einer internationalen Konvention für ein nachhaltiges Ressourcenmanagement gemacht, das vorhandene Verzerrungen reduzieren und zur Prävention von Ressourcenkonflikten beitragen soll. Erforderlich ist eine Sichtweise, bei der Material-, Energie-, Umwelt- und Technologieaspekte einerseits und internationale Entwicklungsaspekte andererseits integriert betrachtet werden. Schließlich geht es nicht um Rohstoffe als solche, sondern um ihre Funktion für menschliche Bedürfnisbefriedigung und Wohlstand. Nötig ist ein Paradigmenwechsel, in dem ein reines Angebotsdenken - welche Rohstoffmengen werden benötigt und wie können sie beschafft werden - zugunsten einer Systemperspektive überwunden wird.
The challenges of resource efficiency and appropriate strategies : a special issue in "SAPIENS"
(2011)
Natural resources are back on the agenda. After the rise of new economic powers such as China, India, and Brazil, global competition has perceptibly increased strategic concerns as regards high commodity prices and possible supply shortages. Germany, the EU, the United States, and many others have formulated raw material strategies that put concern over access and supply at center stage - but the environmental and the socio-political dimensions are widely neglected in these strategies. This paper underlines a new dimension of international relations and pleads for new approaches, called international resource politics, which can be used for ongoing debates concerning green economy and transition strategies.
This paper focuses on market incentives by the introduction of a construction minerals tax as an example of a resource tax. Currently, various European countries levy taxes or duties on primary construction materials, but a harmonisation of the taxation is not planned. Provided the tax rate has a perceptible price effect, the taxation of a resource can foster a demand management or the reduction of the raw material consumption and the governance of side and secondary effects. A construction minerals tax can target the stimulation of demand for secondary raw materials and recycled products, and - because the reuse of construction and demolition waste has technical limits - a stronger emphasis on the conservation of buildings and infrastructures. This has positive effects on the environment and the innovation efforts and it helps to internalise externalities. Germany, used as a case study in this paper, does not raise any taxes on other raw materials than energy sources at the federal level. For this reason, potential impacts of the introduction of a construction minerals tax will be explored and the results of a simulation will be provided.
This paper addresses future perspectives for the management of resources on an international level. Failures of international open markets result in significant material leakage. Here, taking the example of material used vehicles, we develop elements of an international metal covenant that should allow for a more sustainable management of global material flows in that area. Our proposal is based on two principles: any regulation should actively seek industry participation, taking advantage of business interest in supplying a sufficient quantity of materials while lowering materials costs; and it should also address public issues such as sustainability of recycling and waste. In this paper we first analyse contracts as a tool for bridging gaps in knowledge when multiple actors are involved. We then give empirical evidence for material leakage in the case of used vehicles from Germany, before outlining the elements of a proposed international metals covenant. Finally, we analyse potential impacts and discuss legal and institutional issues.