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Vor dem Hintergrund der Richtlinie zu Endenergieeffizienz und Energiedienstleistung (2006/32/EC, ESD) hat die Bundesregierung im September 2007 einen nationalen Energieeffizienz Aktionsplan (NEEAP) vorgelegt. Für den bundesdeutschen Kontext besteht in diesem Zusammenhang nun die Herausforderung zur Entwicklung eines bundesweiten ESD-Evaluations- und Monitoringsystems, welches ein vom Akteur unabhängiges Verfahren zum Nachweis erzielter Einsparungen bereitstellt. Die Qualität des Verfahrens muss dabei durch entsprechende Regelungen und Maßnahmen gesichert werden. Der Bericht beschreibt in Anlehnung an das Projekt EMEEES (Evaluierung und Monitoring für die EU-Richtlinie zu Endenergieeffizienz und Energiedienstleistung), wie erzielte Endenergieeinsparungen aus der Umsetzung des deutschen NEEAPs nachgewiesen werden können. Der Schwerpunkt liegt dabei auf der Entwicklung von geeigneten Bottom-up Methoden, die sowohl die erzielten Gesamteinsparungen als auch zusätzliche Einsparungen berechnen können. Zudem wird eine Berechnung von so genannten Early Energy Savings ermöglicht.
Iran as an energy-rich country faces many challenges in optimal utilization of its vast resources. High population and economic growth, generous subsidies program, and poor resource management have contributed to rapidly growing energy consumption and high energy intensity for the past decades. The continuing trend of energy consumption will bring about new challenges as it will shrink oil exports revenues restraining economic activities and lowering standard of living. This study intends to tackle some of the important challenges in the energy sector and to explore alternative scenarios for utilization of energy resources in Iran for the period 2005-2030. We use techo-economic or end-use approach along with econometric methods to model energy demand in Iran for different types (fuel, natural gas, electricity, and renewable energy) in all sectors of the economy (household, industry, transport, power plants, and others) and forecast it under three scenarios: Business As Usual (BAU), Efficiency, and Renewable Energy.
This study is the first comprehensive study that models the Iranian energy demand using the data at different aggregation levels and a combination of methods to illuminate the future of energy demand under alternative scenarios. The results of the study have great policy implications as they indicate a huge potential for energy conservation and therefore additional revenues and emission reduction under the efficiency scenario compared with the base scenario. Specifically, the total final energy demand under the BAU scenario will grow on average by 2.6 percent per year reaching twice the level as that in 2005. In contrast, the total final energy demand in the Efficiency scenario will only grow by 0.4 percent on average per year. The average growth of energy demand under the combined Efficiency and Renewable Energy scenarios will be 0.2 percent per year. In the BAU scenario, energy intensity will be reduced by about 30 percent by 2030, but will still be above today's world average. In the Efficiency scenario, however, energy intensity will decline by about 60 percent by 2030 to a level lower than the world average today. The energy savings under the Efficiency and Renewable scenarios will generate significant additional revenues and will lead to 45 percent reduction in CO2-emissions by 2030 as compared to the BAU trends.
Concentrated solar power (CSP) plants are one of several renewable energy technologies with significant potential to meet a part of future energy demand. An integrated technology assessment shows that CSP plants could play a promising role in Africa and Europe, helping to reach ambitious climate protection goals. Based on the analysis of driving forces and barriers, at first three future envisaged technology scenarios are developed. Depending on the underlying assumptions, an installed capacity of 120 GWel, 405 GWel or even 1,000 GWel could be reached globally in 2050. In the latter case, CSP would then meet 13–15% of global electricity demand. Depending on these scenarios, cost reduction curves for North Africa and Europe are derived. The cost assessment conducted for two virtual sites in Algeria and in Spain shows a long-term reduction of electricity generating costs to figures between 4 and 6 ct/kWhel in 2050. The paper concludes with an ecological analysis based on life cycle assessment. Although the greenhouse gas emissions of current (solar only operated) CSP systems show a good performance (31 g CO2-equivalents/kWhel) compared with advanced fossil-fired systems (130–900 CO2-eq./kWhel), they could further be reduced to 18 g CO2-eq./kWhel in 2050, including transmission from North Africa to Europe.