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Decarbonizing transportation in emerging economies will be one of the key challenges in global climate change mitigation efforts. In this paper, pathways are developed towards achieving a 1.5° degree scenario for land-transport for four emerging economies (Brazil, India, Kenya and Vietnam). The aim is to highlight the key opportunities and challenges for low-carbon transport in countries with rapidly growing mobility demand. The main focus of this paper is to reconcile actual and required emission reduction targets and develop plausible pathways to achieve these targets. The paper also identifies potential strategies and measures for these countries to follow these pathways. The analysis considers the contributions of "avoid" (cutting travel growth), "shift" (to lower CO2 modes) and "improve" (vehicle and fuel CO2 characteristics) interventions to decarbonisation scenarios. These scenarios aim to inform renewed Nationally Determined Contributions and shed light on the feasibility of deep decarbonisation pathways that would be in line with the Paris Agreement. Results from this study show that achieving 1.5DS would require dramatic changes in travel patterns, technology and fuels, and major intensification of current policy approaches. Decarbonization solutions will need to include greater use and investment of efficient modes, major shifts toward near-zero carbon fuels such as clean electricity, systems integration, modal shift and urban planning solutions. Although the socio-economic situations and national transport systems differ between the selected countries, some fairly similar strategies appear likely to be core to the mitigation effort, such as rapid growth in light- and heavy-duty vehicle electrification and investments in public transit systems.
The study "Towards a Single and Innovative European Transport System" is developing action plans for the establishment of an integrated transport system in Europe. This report was created in a joint effort between VDI/VDE Innovation + Technik GmbH (Germany), Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy (Germany) and the Centre of Research and Technology Hellas, CERTH (Greece) on behalf of the European Commission's DG MOVE. Focus of the report is the international assessment of six different countries - Brazil, China, India, Japan, South Korea, USA - in five focus areas across all transportation modes. It provides actions plans on how to overcome existing European barriers towards a single and innovative European Transport System based on best practices and lessons learned in the countries under study. In addition to the actions plans, the study also provides recommendations for international collaboration.
As of June 2017, 150 countries have ratified the Paris Climate Agreement. This agreement calls for, among other things, strong reductions in CO2 emissions by 2030 and beyond. This paper reviews the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDCs) plans of six Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries and compares their current and projected future CO2 levels across sectors, and their stated targets in the context of their economic and demographic situations. This comparison reveals wide variations in the types of targets, with the "ambition" level changing as the perspective changes from total CO2 to CO2/capita and per unit gross domestic product (GDP). We also review national plans as stated in NDCs and find that while there are many types of policies listed, few are quantified and no attempts are made to score individual or groups of policies for their likelihood in achieving stated targets. We conclude that more analysis is needed to better understand the possible impacts of current policies and plans on CO2 emissions, and whether current plans are adequate to hit targets. Considerations on better aligning targets are also provided.
The transport sector is the second largest and one of the fastest growing energy end-use sectors, representing 24% of global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. The International Energy Agency has developed scenarios for the transport sector within the overall concept of mitigation pathways that would be required to limit global warming to 2 °C. This paper builds on these scenarios and illustrates various passenger travel-related strategies for achieving a 2° transport scenario, in particular looking at how much technology improvement is needed in the light of different changes in travel and modal shares in OECD and non-OECD countries. It finds that an integrated approach using all feasible policy options is likely to deliver the required emission reductions at least cost, and that stronger travel-related measures result in significantly lower technological requirements.
Electric mobility is beginning to enter East African cities. This paper aims to investigate what policy-level solutions and stakeholder constellations are established in the context of electric mobility (e-mobility) in Dar es Salaam, Kigali, Kisumu and Nairobi and in which ways they attempt to tackle the implementation of electric mobility solutions. The study employs two key methods including content analysis of policy and programmatic documents and interviews based on a purposive sampling approach with stakeholders involved in mobility transitions. The study findings point out that in spite of the growing number of policies (specifically in Rwanda and Kenya) and on-the-ground developments, a set of financial and technical barriers persists. These include high upfront investment costs in vehicles and infrastructure, as well as perceived lack of competitiveness with fossil fuel vehicles that constrain the uptake of e-mobility initiatives. The study further indicates that transport operators and their representative associations are less recognized as major players in the transition, far behind new e-mobility players (start-ups) and public authorities. This study concludes by identifying current gaps that need to be tackled by policymakers and stakeholders in order to implement inclusive electric mobility in East African cities, considering modalities that include transport providers and address their financial constraints.
Many cities all over the world highlight the need to transform their urban mobility systems into more sustainable ones, to confront pressing issues such as air and noise pollution, and to deliver on climate change mitigation action. While the support of innovations is high on the agenda of both national and local authorities, consciously phasing-out unsustainable technologies and practices is often neglected. However, this other side of the policy coin, "exnovation", is a crucial element for the mobility transition. We developed a framework to facilitate a more comprehensive assessment of urban mobility transition policies, systematically integrating exnovation policies. It links exnovation functions as identified in transition studies with insights from urban mobility studies and empirical findings from eight city case studies around the world. The findings suggest that most cities use some kinds of exnovation policies to address selective urban mobility issues, e.g., phasing-out diesel buses, restricting the use of polluting motor vehicles in some parts of the city, etc. Still, we found no evidence for a systematic exnovation approach alongside the innovation policies. Our framework specifies exnovation functions for the urban mobility transition by lining out policy levers and concrete measure examples. We hope that the framework inspires future in-depth research, but also political action to advance the urban mobility transition.
The lack of suitable tools to assess sustainable mobility measures' costs, benefits and overall impacts is a significant factor impeding their implementation. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is often applied to large-scale infrastructure projects, but does not capture all relevant socio-economic impacts. Small-scale but potentially highly cost-effective measures often do not have the critical mass to warrant a thorough cost-benefit analysis. This paper reviews existing assessment methodologies, including their advantages, limitations and application to different urban mobility measures, and current assessment practice in cities based on survey results. Based on these analyses, a holistic approach for project appraisal is proposed, consisting of aspects of a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) and CBA and applicable to a variety of urban mobility measures.
Considerable efficiency gains can be made costeffectively to set the transport sector on a sustainable development pathway. They can be achieved through already available technologies and practices, which will not only reduce greenhouse gas emissions significantly, but also generate social, environmental and economic co-benefits. However, progress in the take-up of low-carbon mobility measures substantially lags behind the potential. A number of barriers contribute to this lack of uptake. This paper explores those barriers by focusing on vehicle fuel efficiency in particular, but will also touch on the wider policy framework to improve the efficiency of the transport sector and reduce emissions. The paper suggests that a combination of fuel pricing, differentiated vehicle taxation, vehicle standards and the provision of modal choice are necessary to minimise rebound effects and significantly curb transport sector greenhouse gas emissions at low- or even negative cost.
As the recent withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement has shown, political volatility directly affects climate change mitigation policies, in particular in sectors, such as transport associated with long-term investments by individuals (vehicles) and by local and national governments (urban form and transport infrastructure and services). There is a large potential for cost-effective solutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to improve the sustainability of the transport sector that is yet unexploited. Considering the cost-effectiveness and the potential for co-benefits, it is hard to understand why efficiency gains and CO2 emission reductions in the transport sector are still lagging behind this potential. Particularly interesting is the fact that there is substantial difference among countries with relatively similar economic performances in the development of their transport CO2 emissions over the past thirty years despite the fact that these countries had relatively similar access to efficient technologies and vehicles. This study aims to explore some well-established political science theories on the particular example of climate change mitigation in the transport sector in order to identify some of the factors that could help explain the variations in success of policies and strategies in this sector. The analysis suggests that institutional arrangements that contribute to consensus building in the political process provide a high level of political and policy stability which is vital to long-term changes in energy end-use sectors that rely on long-term investments. However, there is no direct correlation between institutional structures, e.g., corporatism and success in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector. Environmental objectives need to be built into the consensus-based policy structure before actual policy progress can be observed. This usually takes longer in consensus democracies than in politically more agile majoritarian policy environments, but the policy stability that builds on corporatist institutional structures is likely to experience changes over a longer-term, in this case to a shift towards low-carbon transport that endures.
There is a large potential for cost-effective solutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to improve the sustainability of the transport sector that is yet unexploited. Considering the cost-effectiveness and the potential for co-benefits, it is hard to understand why energy gains and mitigation action in the transport sector is still lagging behind the potential. Particularly interesting is the fact that there is substantial difference among countries with relatively similar economic performances, such as the OECD countries in the development of their transport CO2 emission over the past thirty years despite the fact that these countries had relatively similar access to efficient technologies and vehicles. This study aims to apply some well established political science theories on the particular example of climate change mitigation in the transport sector in order to identify some of the factors that could help explain the variations in success of policies and strategies in this sector. The analysis suggests that institutional arrangements that contribute to consensus building in the political process provide a high level of political and policy stability which is vital to long-term changes in energy end-use sectors that rely on long-term investments. However, there is no direct correlation between institutional structures, e.g. corporatism and success in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector. Environmental objectives need to be built into the consensus-based policy structure before actual policy progress can be observed. This usually takes longer in consensus democracies than in politically more agile majoritarian policy environments, but the policy stability that builds on corporatist institutional structures is likely to experience changes over a longer-term, in this case to a shift towards low-carbon transport that endures.
Many low-carbon transport strategies can help achieve other economic, social and environmental objectives. These include improving access to mobility, reducing traffic and parking congestion, saving consumers money, supporting economic development, increasing public health and safety, and reducing air and noise pollution. Based on Avoid-Shift-Improve approaches and case studies from Germany, Colombia, India and Singapore, this paper shows that low-carbon transport generates significant and quantifiable benefits that can create a basis for political and societal coalitions.
Estimates suggest that currently available and cost effective measures can reduce transport Greenhouse Gas emissions by 40-50% compared to 2010. Yet, a number of barriers affect the optimal exploitation of this potential. Considering the possible economic, social and environmental benefits of sustainable transport, the shift towards a low-carbon pathway of this sector can be a win-win situation for climate protection and local development goals. This paper aims to make a contribution to understand these opportunities by highlighting the linkages between objectives, presenting case studies, facts and figures. The paper will also explore assessment methodologies and tools that can help practitioners to assess sustainable development benefits (SDB) and providing evidence for policy-makers to make more informed decisions on transport investments and polices.
This paper presents a novel governance concept for sustainable development, introducing the "Safe System Approach" as a transformative model that shifts focus from individual behavioural change to systemic transformation. This approach challenges traditional governance models that emphasize individual responsibility in achieving sustainable development and decarbonization. Instead, it advocates for creating an enabling environment that inherently guides individuals and communities towards sustainable actions. The Safe System Approach is centred on delivering low-carbon services across essential sectors, including electricity, mobility, industry, buildings, human settlements, and agriculture, thereby embedding sustainability as a default choice in societal systems. Drawing parallels with successful models in road safety, the paper explores the potential of this approach in urban development and climate action. It emphasizes the need for a broad coalition and integrated approaches in managing shared resources, highlighting the significance of systemic adjustments over individual behavioral change. By proposing a structure where sustainability is facilitated by the system's design, the paper builds on key concepts from seminal works by scholars like Garrett Hardin, Mancur Olson, Elinor Ostrom, and Ahrend Lijphart. It discusses the challenges and opportunities in creating safe operating spaces for sustainable development, emphasizing the need for multi-actor, multilevel governance systems that can manage shared resources sustainably and are resilient to political volatility. The paper aims to offer a robust, efficient, and inclusive pathway to sustainable development, contributing to the global discourse on environmental and social resilience.
The number of motorcycle taxis has soared in East African cities over the last decades, filling a gap in mobility needs while providing revenue opportunities to drivers. However, poor road safety combined with contribution to carbon emissions and air pollution creates a sustainability conundrum, which has led governments to control or repress the mode, yet without much success. After reviewing the characteristics and regulation of motorcycle taxis in Nairobi, Kigali, and Kampala, this study investigates the existence and impacts of two recent trends: digitalization and electrification. A comprehensive approach is adopted with a systematic review of the literature and policies, completed by field research and key informant interviews. We find out that electrification is mostly associated with positive impacts covering a spectrum of environment, economics, health, and social-related benefits, while the benefits of digitalization are more uncertain or contested. Impacts are however limited for both at the time of study as digitalization is highly volatile and electrification nascent. In conclusion, the paper identifies an interlinkage between the trends via the example of data, and further key research needs.
This article aims to analyse the potential for international climate governance to promote the decarbonisation of land transport. It first summarises challenges and barriers that impede the transformation of the sector. On this basis, the article discusses how international governance could potentially assist with overcoming these barriers and mobilising potentials. Subsequently, the article analyses to what extent existing international governance institutions deliver on the potential identified. The analysis finds that while there is a large number of international institutions trying to promote the decarbonisation of land transport, none of them emerge saliently as hubs or core institutions. There is a substantial amount of activity to generate and disseminate knowledge and learning, but the potential for providing guidance and signal, setting rules, providing transparency/accountability and means of implementation could be further exploited. The article concludes with suggestions on how international governance may be strengthened.
2019 haben das Karlsruher Institut für Technologie, die Leuphana Universität Lüneburg, das Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie und das Ecological Research Network das Netzwerk Reallabore der Nachhaltigkeit gegründet. Die Kommunikations- und Kooperationsplattform will zu einer transformativen Nachhaltigkeitsforschung beitragen.
Much mitigation-related governance activity is evident in a range of sectoral systems, and regarding particular governance functions. However, there is a tendency for this activity to relate to the easiest functions to address, such as "learning and knowledge building", or to take place in somewhat limited "niches". Across all sectoral systems examined, the gap between identified governance needs and what is currently supplied is most serious in terms of the critical function of setting rules to facilitate collective action. A lack of "guidance and signal" is also evident, particularly in the finance, extractive industries, energy-intensive industries, and buildings sectoral systems.
Of the sectoral systems examined, the power sector appears the most advanced in covering the main international governance functions required of it. Nevertheless, it still falls short in achieving critical governance functions necessary for sufficient decarbonisation. Significantly, while the signal is strong and clear for the phase-in of renewable energy, it is either vague or absent when it comes to the phase-out of fossil fuel-generated electricity. The same lack of signal that certain high-carbon activities need actively to be phased out is also evident in financial, fossil-fuel extractive industry and transport-related sectors.
More effective mitigation action will need greater co-ordination or orchestration effort, sometimes led by the UNFCCC, but also from the bodies such as the G20, as well as existing (or potentially new) sector-level institutions. The EU needs to re-consider what it means to provide climate leadership in an increasingly "polycentric" governance landscape.
Decision-making in sustainable urban mobility planning : common practice and future directions
(2015)
The European Commission aims to foster sustainable local transport systems through the concept of "Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans" (SUMPs). This paper is intended as a think piece highlighting the challenges for cities in selecting sustainable and cost-effective transport and mobility measures. Not only does the paper convey an understanding of the challenges of determining a transport project's viability, but it also presents five case studies of sustainable urban mobility planning and the role of project appraisal in those policy-making processes.
Investments in urban transport should deliver the maximum economic, social and environmental benefits; in times of constrained budgets, projects' economic viability is often the deciding factor. This paper discusses the current practices and challenges facing cities in assessing urban transport interventions. On this basis, it develops options for decision-makers to appraise small-scale, sustainable urban transport policy measures.
The analysis of current appraisal practice shows that data requirements and complexity are cities’ main obstacles appraising projects and comparing potential alternatives. Additionally, there is often a risk that project appraisal enters the planning process too late to play any meaningful role. Conducting a Cost-benefit
analysis (CBA) ex-ante is often only approved if the implementation of the measure in question is already likely. Often, a CBA is a means to access funds rather than a basis for decision-making. Project appraisal of small-scale and non-infrastructure-based measures is often simply too expensive.
On the basis of these findings, the paper discusses the following alternatives to comprehensive CBAs: 1) learn from others, 2) use a simplified assessment method, 3) rely on norms and values. All of these options aim to cope with the trade-off between effort and certitude. In practice, some policy-makers may already apply one or more of these options, but this has not been documented in a systematic manner. A systematic documentation of such practices could be a major step forward for implementation of sustainable and integrated urban transport projects, as it would shed some light on the reasoning behind decisions, from which conclusions could be drawn on the likely follow-on effects thereof and also possible improvements to the process.
Cities around the globe are implementing innovative transport solutions as part of measures to address pertinent socio-economic and environmental challenges in urban areas and help drive the transition to low carbon development. Planning and implementing such solutions require an effective and collective approach that includes the needs and aspirations of all relevant stakeholders. In the planning and implementation of urban transport projects, capacity building components have assumed great significance but seem to be the most eluded activity for project implementers. The Living Lab concept, which allows for co-creation in innovation development, presents the opportunity to adopt innovative participatory approach in capacity building activities in transport projects; and is largely seen as a potential catalyst for rapid transformation to low carbon and sustainability transitions in cities. To this end, this paper highlights the usefulness of the Living Lab approach and provides some perspectives on how key elements of the approach are adapted in the process of assessing the capacity needs of nine (9) cities in planning and implementing e-mobility innovations. The cities are participating in an innovation research project. In the case studied, the project’s capacity needs assessment process was analyzed using an assessment framework built on four (4) key elements of the Living Lab approach, namely: extent of real-life contextualization, level of participation, diversity of stakeholders, and the time span of engagement. Insights from the assessment suggest that relevant project partners and city representatives with diverse expertise were actively involved from the onset and throughout the first 5 months of the project in defining and refining the capacity needs of partner cities based on local e-mobility conditions. This co-creative process helped determine priority areas where the need for capacity building mostly lied. Designing and operationalizing capacity building interventions tailored to the identified needs, as realized in the project, could therefore help build the necessary capacity and complement other measures aimed at developing e-mobility in the project’s partner cities.
What is necessary to reach net zero emissions in the transport sector on a global level? To keep limiting global warming to 1.5° C within reach, the world has to decarbonise by mid-century, with every sector contributing as much as possible as soon as possible. This paper identifies what has to be done in road transport, aviation, and shipping to achieve net zero emission in the transport sector.
For this purpose, it first sets the scene by providing an overview of the origins and impacts of the concept of net zero emissions in international climate policy as well as of the current state and future prospects of global transport emissions using currently available scenarios for low-emission and net zero transport.
While for staying below 1.5° C, the basic approach to reducing transport emissions remains unchanged from what has been suggested in the past, the set, intensity and pace of actions as to shift fundamentally. Without first drastically reducing traffic volume and shifting transport demand to low-emission modes, reaching net zero transport will not be feasible: the amount of additional electricity required to fully electrify the sector with renewable energy is otherwise just too huge.
After portraying key instruments for achieving net zero emissions in land transport, aviation, and shipping, this paper identifies key barriers for net zero transport. Based on this analysis, the authors recommend the following to be able to move transport to net zero:
1. Adapt Decarbonisation Strategies to Different Transport Sub-sectors
2. Prioritise and Significantly Increase Investment in Zero-/low-carbon Infrastructure
3. Massively Invest in the Development and Roll out of Zero-/low-emission Technologies
4. Focus on a Just Transition to Overcome Social and Political Barriers
5. Increase International Support and Cooperation