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Global climate
(2017)
On 7-18 November, the twenty-second Conference of the Parties (COP-22) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the twelfth Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP-12) took place in Marrakech. Due to the rapid entry into force of the Paris Agreement, Marrakech also hosted the first Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA-1). Nobody had expected this one year before in Paris - the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol, by comparison, had taken eight years. Many hailed the rapid entry into force as further proof of the commitment of the world community to finally tackle the climate problem.
The study "Towards a Single and Innovative European Transport System" is developing action plans for the establishment of an integrated transport system in Europe. This report was created in a joint effort between VDI/VDE Innovation + Technik GmbH (Germany), Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy (Germany) and the Centre of Research and Technology Hellas, CERTH (Greece) on behalf of the European Commission's DG MOVE. Focus of the report is the international assessment of six different countries - Brazil, China, India, Japan, South Korea, USA - in five focus areas across all transportation modes. It provides actions plans on how to overcome existing European barriers towards a single and innovative European Transport System based on best practices and lessons learned in the countries under study. In addition to the actions plans, the study also provides recommendations for international collaboration.
Two for one : integrating the sustainable development agenda with international climate policy
(2017)
2015 was a watershed for international sustainability governance. With the Paris climate agreement and Agenda 2030, the international community adopted new targets and processes which are to guide policy for decades to come. Both emphasise the need for integration. In practice, however, climate change and sustainable development have so far been siloed issues.
From 7 to 18 November 2016, the twenty-second Conference of the Parties (COP22) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) took place in Marrakech. Due to the early entry into force of the Paris Agreement, Marrakech also hosted the first Conference of the Parties serving as Meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA1). Researchers from the Wuppertal Institute observed the conference and elaborated a detailed analysis of the results. The report starts by discussing developments regarding the implementation of the Paris Agreement, in particular the detailed "rulebook" and cooperative mechanisms. Next, the article discusses developments in the various avenues for raising climate ambition that have been put in place by the Paris conference: the 2018 facilitative dialogue, the engagement of non-state and sub-national actors, and the elaboration of mid-century climate strategies. In addition, the article discusses other Marrakech developments, in particular on issues of climate finance and adaptation, as well as recent developments in the wider world that have an impact on the UNFCCC, in particular developing alliances, developments in the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) and under the Montreal Protocol, and possible repercussions of the US presidential election.
Energy efficiency activities are high on the current EU energy policy agenda. Key policy instruments like the Energy Efficiency Directive (EED), the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) and the Energy Labelling Directive are under revision.
In a project for the German government, we therefore analysed the effectiveness and consistency of existing sectoral policy packages anew, to open the discussion on which policy changes to the EU's energy efficiency policy packages are crucial to reach the targets.
This comprehensive review addressed the industrial, buildings, and transport sectors plus the overarching governance framework (targets and roadmaps, EED, energy taxation and EU ETS). For each of these, the first step was a gap analysis of the main deficits in the sectoral policy packages, against effective model packages.
At first glance, the combination of energy efficiency policies at EU level seems already quite comprehensive. However, their design and implementation often lack a consistent and ambitious approach to leverage their full potential.
To give some examples of the many shortcomings identified, the governance framework suffers from exceptions and the transport sector being only marginally considered in the EED; an outdated Energy Tax Directive has very low minimum rates and several exception clauses; there is a lack of commitment to implement energy management systems and investment projects in large companies; a clear EU-wide definition of nearly zero energy buildings (nZEB) is missing; and the labelling of energy-using products is still confusing for consumers. Subsequently, we elaborated comprehensive policy recommendations to increase the effectiveness of all these policies, and to bridge some gaps with new policies. A list of priorities was established to sort them by their relevance.
As of June 2017, 150 countries have ratified the Paris Climate Agreement. This agreement calls for, among other things, strong reductions in CO2 emissions by 2030 and beyond. This paper reviews the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDCs) plans of six Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries and compares their current and projected future CO2 levels across sectors, and their stated targets in the context of their economic and demographic situations. This comparison reveals wide variations in the types of targets, with the "ambition" level changing as the perspective changes from total CO2 to CO2/capita and per unit gross domestic product (GDP). We also review national plans as stated in NDCs and find that while there are many types of policies listed, few are quantified and no attempts are made to score individual or groups of policies for their likelihood in achieving stated targets. We conclude that more analysis is needed to better understand the possible impacts of current policies and plans on CO2 emissions, and whether current plans are adequate to hit targets. Considerations on better aligning targets are also provided.
Optimization and simulation models are fit to work on a multitude of technical, economic, and techno-economic questions. However, they are by now not able to satisfactorily include societal aspects like acceptance, spatial implications and legal frameworks. In order to advance scope and explanatory power of simulation models, collaboration in interdisciplinary research teams is needed. Yet the exchange in such teams and its coordination can prove challenging. Furthermore, disciplinary approaches and methods for simulation and optimization might not be familiar to all participants.
To this end, a new conceptual model is introduced. The conceptual model employs few basic elements and concepts for describing and explaining arbitrary societal and technical relationships. Most notably, the conceptual model is general in its design, so contributions to the problem formulation and design components can be made by all team members regardless of their discipline. The procedure is based on common agent-based concepts without using their terminology. Consequently, an exchange among all team members becomes possible without them necessarily being proficient in agent-based modeling. A reduced presentation of workshop results exemplifies the use of novel elements for deriving an emergent agent-based simulation.
Städte und Klimawandel : Ruhrgebiet 2050 ; integriertes Modell Ruhrgebiet und Regionaler Modal Shift
(2017)
Das Ziel des Teilprojekts "Integriertes Modell Ruhrgebiet 2050" war die Entwicklung und Anwendung eines integrierten Modellsystems, mit dem die Auswirkungen von Handlungsansätzen zur Reduzierung des Energieverbrauchs und von Treibhausgasemissionen in Stadtregionen bis zum Jahr 2050 abgeschätzt und bewertet werden können. In dem Teilprojekt wurde ein für das östliche Ruhrgebiet vorhandenes Flächennutzungs- und Verkehrsmodell auf das gesamte Ruhrgebiet erweitert und durch Teilmodelle des Energieverbrauchs von Gebäuden und Verkehr ergänzt. Die Ergebnisse sollen Zivilgesellschaft, Planung und Politik Hinweise darauf geben, welche Maßnahmen auf europäischer, nationaler, regionaler und lokaler Ebene durchgeführt werden müssen, um die Ziele der Energiewende im Ruhrgebiet zu erreichen.
Im Fokus des Teilprojekts "Regionaler Modal Shift" stand der regionale Personenverkehr im Ruhrgebiet. Hier werden bislang 53 Prozent aller Wege mit dem motorisierten Individualverkehr zurückgelegt gegenüber einem Ziel-Modal Split mit einem Pkw-Anteil von 25 Prozent und jeweils 25 weiteren Prozenten für Fuß- und Radverkehr sowie ÖPNV. Ein zentraler Ansatz zur Reduzierung des Energieverbrauchs und der Treibhausgasemissionen ist die Verlagerung (Modal Shift) von motorisiertem Individualverkehr auf den Umweltverbund (Fuß, Rad, ÖPNV, Car-Sharing). Die polyzentrische Struktur des Verkehrsnetzes des Ruhrgebiets bietet gute Voraussetzungen für eine klimafreundliche Mobilität im Umweltverbund. Darüber hinaus kann Elektromobilität einen weiteren Beitrag zur Reduzierung von Energieverbrauch und Treibhausgasemissionen leisten.
Dieser Bericht stellt die Ergebnisse aus den beiden Teilprojekten in integrierter Form dar.
Energiesuffizienz ist neben Energieeffizienz ein zweiter Weg, den Energieverbrauch zu reduzieren. Während Energieeffizienz bei unverändertem Nutzen den Energieinput senkt, ist Energiesuffizienz eine Strategie mit dem Ziel, die Menge an technisch bereitgestellter Energie durch Veränderungen der Quantität oder Qualität des Nutzens aus Energie auf ein nachhaltiges Maß zu begrenzen oder zu reduzieren. Das kann durch Reduktion, Substitution oder Anpassung des Nutzens an den Bedarf im Alltag geschehen. Viele Haushalte praktizieren schon Energiesuffizienz, aber die Hemmnisse für eine stärkere Nutzung sind groß. Auch die Energiesuffizienz im Haushalt benötigt daher eine Flankierung durch die Politik. Im BMBF-Projekt "Energiesuffizienz" wurde daher erstmals eine integrierte Energiesuffizienzpolitik untersucht, die insbesondere den Stromverbrauch in den privaten Haushalten adressiert.