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This study aims to investigate whether, to what extent and how a transition toward integrated flood management has taken place in the Dongting Lake area at the middle Yangtze. Accordingly, we conducted a longitudinal research of its flood management (1949–2009). We developed an analytical framework linking regime components to two societal learning types (double and triple-loop learning) that are key to a regime transition. Our study shows that the transition toward integrated flood management has already started, but the whole regime transformation will still take time to complete, due to, for example, the not-yet-ready decision-making processes that shape the structure changes as well as the incompatibilities between what is on paper and real implementation. To understand how the regime transition took place, we investigated where and how triple-loop learning was initiated as well as how so-called "informal learning processes" has contributed to the transition of Dongting flood management.
For decades, the Chinese government has been searching for solutions to cope with the increasing imbalance between the supply and demand of water in the Yellow River Basin. This paper aims at a better understanding of the development of the water allocation regime in the Yellow River Basin between 1950 and 2009, introducing a fresh perspective based on the notion of "regime transition". Accordingly, we investigated 1) whether so-called "Windows of Opportunity for Transition (WOPTs)" emerged, triggering a transition, and whether WOPT(s) resulted in a stable transition towards the new regime; 2) how informal learning processes and epistemic communities have contributed to the regime change. We adapted Kingdon's "multiple stream model" and identified four WOPTs from the 1950s, analyzing the reconfiguration process of the regime after the onset of the transition. Our examples of two types of informal learning processes demonstrate their contribution to the creation of WOPTs and the reconfiguration of the regime. Furthermore, this study indicates, in a qualitative manner, how epistemic communities contribute to the knowledge base of the regime, and thus to its development. Finally, we have provided a general insight into the further development of the water allocation regime and highlighted potential avenues for further studies.
To achieve an efficient use and allocation of limited water resources and thus resolve increasing water use conflicts due to fast rising societal water demands, in 2000, the Chinese government started a management strategy of 'Construction of a Water Saving Society (WSS)'. It is guided by the principle that socio-economic development should consider the carrying capacity of the ecosystem and focuses on institutional innovation, building on the water rights concept. This paper explores the innovation process during the transition towards WSS by investigating the development course of the innovation process during the transition towards WSS, and the adaptive capacity of the existing water management regime underlying the innovation process. Accordingly, an analysis framework consisting of three types of governance activities and factors determining a regime's adaptive capacity was developed, based on the theory of transition management and adaptive governance. The Tianjin and Zhangye WSS experiments were selected for a deep understanding of local innovations. It is revealed that co-evolution of all three types of governance activities that are claimed to be essential for transition has taken place. However, the current adaptive capacity of the regime still needs further enhancement to support the transition towards the desired WSS in China. Finally, some general insights are provided for policy innovations in other political economies.
Increasing urbanisation and climate change belong to the greatest challenges of the 21st century. A high share of global greenhouse gas emissions are estimated to originate in urban areas (40 % to 78 % according to UN Habitat 2010). Therefore, low carbon city strategies and concepts implicate large greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potentials. At the same time, with high population and infrastructure densities as well as concentrated economic activities, cities are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and need to adapt. Scarce natural resources further constrain the leeway for long-term, sustainable urban development. The Low Carbon Future Cities (LCFC) project aims at tapping this three-dimensional challenge and will develop an integrated strategy / roadmap, balancing low carbon development, gains in resource efficiency and adaptation to climate change. The study focuses on two pilot regions - one in China (Wuxi) and one in Germany (Düsseldorf+) - and is conducted by a German-Chinese research team supported by the German Stiftung Mercator. The paper gives an overview of first outcomes of the analysis of the status quo and assessment of the most likely developments regarding GHG emissions, climate impacts and resource use in Wuxi. The project developed an emission inventory for Wuxi to identify key sectors for further analysis and low carbon scenarios. The future development of energy demand and related CO2 emissions in 2030 were simulated in the current policy scenario (CPS), using five different sub-models. Selected aspects of Wuxi's current material and water flows were analysed and modelled for energy transformation and the building sector. Current and future climate impacts and vulnerability were investigated. Recent climatic changes and resulting damages were analysed, expected changes in temperature and precipitation in the coming four decades were projected using ensembles of three General Circulation Models. Although Wuxi's government started a path to implement a low carbon plan, the first results show that more ambitious efforts are needed to overcome the challenges faced.
The Low Carbon Future Cities (LCFC) project aims at facing a three dimensional challenge by developing an integrated city roadmap balancing: low carbon development, gains in resource efficiency and adaptation to climate change. The paper gives an overview of the first outcomes of the analysis of the status quo and assessment of the most likely developments regarding GHG emissions, climate impacts and resource use in Wuxi - the Chinese pilot city for the LCFC project. As a first step, a detailed emission inventory following the IPCC guidelines for Wuxi has been carried out. In a second step, the future development of energy demand and related CO2 emissions in 2050 were simulated in a current policy scenario (CPS). In parallel, selected aspects of material and water flows for the energy and the building sector were analyzed and modeled. In addition, recent and future climate impacts and vulnerability were investigated. Based on these findings, nine key sectors with high relevance to the three dimensions could be identified. Although Wuxi's government has started a path to implement a low carbon plan, the first results show that, for the shift towards a sustainable low carbon development, more ambitious steps need to be taken in order to overcome the challenges faced.
What makes a good policy? : Guidance for assessing and implementing energy efficiency policies
(2013)
Which factors are crucial to successfully design and implement a "good practice" policy to increase the energy efficiency of buildings and appliances? This is one of the main challenges for the new web platform bigee.net that provides guidance on good practice policies.
In this paper we examine the question what "good practice" is by presenting a multi-criteria assessment scheme to analyse different policies worldwide.
The assessment scheme contains a set of criteria addressing key factors leading to the success of a policy as well as its outcomes: a good policy addresses all market players and barriers, avoids lost opportunities and lock-in effects, has ambitious and regularly updated energy efficiency levels, and spill-over effects. Other criteria are high energy savings and the calculated cost-effectiveness.
The assessment scheme provides a standardised data collection approach, which paves the way for both qualitative and quantitative evaluation. Furthermore, it can help policy-makers to transfer a successful policy.
The development of the scheme is based on a literature review of worldwide implemented policies and measures that promote energy-efficiency of buildings and appliances. Criteria were operationalized, including a ranking between 0 and 10. The ranking is a decisive factor whether the policy qualifies as good practice. To demonstrate the practicability of this scheme, the paper analyses a good practice example according to the assessment scheme: Energy-Efficient Refurbishment and Energy Efficient Construction programmes of the German public bank KfW.
Urbanization and climate change are amongst the greatest challenges of the 21st century. In the "Low Carbon Future Cities" project (LCFC), three important problem dimensions are analysed: current and future GHG emissions and their mitigation (up to 2050); resource use and material flows; and vulnerability to climate change.
The industrial city of Wuxi has been the Chinese pilot city of the project. To establish the pathway for a low carbon future, it is crucial to understand the current situation and possible future developments. The paper presents the key results of the status quo analysis and the future scenario analysis carried out for Wuxi. Two scenarios are outlined. The Current Policy Scenario (CPS) shows the current most likely development in the area of energy demand and GHG emissions until 2050. Whereas the extra low carbon scenario (ELCS) assumes a significantly more ambitious implementation, it combines a market introduction of best available technologies with substantial behavioural change. All scenarios are composed of sub-scenarios for the selected key sectors.
Looking at the per capita emissions in Wuxi, the current levels are already high at around 12 tonnes CO2 per capita compared to Western European cities. Although Wuxi has developed a low carbon plan, the projected results under current policies (CPS) show that the total emissions would increase to 23.6 tonnes CO2 per capita by 2050. If the ELCS pathway was to be adopted, these CO2 emission levels could be reduced to 6.4 tonnes per capita by 2050.
The brochure summarises the project's objectives and methodological approach, its key findings as well as conclusions. Both case studies have shown that technological solutions for low carbon development should be embedded in a well-developed institutional framework to foster their deployment and implementation. Therefore, recommendations for Wuxi include examples of innovative and integrated technical projects for increasing energy and resource efficiency, combining them with recommendations for the development of institutional frameworks. One element of such a framework could be a local energy agency in Wuxi, which would offer support and expertise to potential investors in low carbon technologies. Also for the German pilot region, the brochure offers concrete recommendations how to facilitate low carbon planning within the region.
The Sino-German project "Low Carbon Future Cities" (LCFC) aims to develop a low carbon strategy for its Chinese pilot city Wuxi. The strategy primarily focuses on carbon mitigation, but also considers links with the issues of resource efficiency and adaption to climate change. This report written by Daniel Vallentin, Carmen Dienst and Chun Xia offers strategic examples of good practice and makes recommendations to Wuxi city government about the changes that key sectors can adopt in order to comply with its low carbon targets. The recommendations are based on scientific analyses which were undertaken earlier in the LCFC project.
Urban areas, being responsible for large shares of global greenhouse gas emissions, are important arenas for achieving global decarbonisation. However, the systemic challenge of decarbonisation requires deep structural changes - transitions - that take place across multiple scales and along entire value chains. We argue in this article that understanding the role of urban areas for global decarbonisation therefore requires consideration of their context and analysis of urban areas' contributions to transitions that extend past the individual urban area. We develop an analytical framework that proposes three principal ways urban areas contribute to low-carbon transitions and ten competences that regional and local governance actors have to support them. We apply this framework to the Cologne metropolitan area in Germany to demonstrate the ability of our framework to relate urban-scale activities to more encompassing low-carbon transitions. The paper concludes with future research possibilities.
This paper reports on a nationwide field survey of managing energy efficiency of buildings under energy performance contracting (EPC) in Chinese building sector. The survey aims at getting insight of Chinese experiences of EPC and survey yielded information on profile, specificity and risk specifications of EPC in Chinese building sector. The key findings are that the existing EPC projects are mainly driven by policies and majority of first parties in EPC are owners of public buildings. The contract specificity is worryingly low, with underspecification prominent in the contract sections of renewal and change of the planned solutions, dispute resolution and compensation for personal and property damage. Insufficient risk specification was a major cause of contract failure and disputing. High risks are observed in not enough feasibility study, delay in completion, operational risks, delay in payment and uninsured loss. Most post EPC projects would be worryingly unsuccessful, given to the facts that many of them have not established their energy team, have no further investment and have no effective maintenance. The Chinese existing emission trading scheme (ETS) offers a vital opportunity for upscaling EPC in building sector and policy framing is needed for linking EPC projects and ETS.
In recent decades, better data and methods have become available for understanding the complex functioning of cities and their impacts on sustainability. This review synthesizes the recent developments in concepts and methods being used to measure the impacts of cities on environmental sustainability. It differentiates between a dominant trend in research literature that concentrates on the accounting and allocation of greenhouse gas emissions and energy use to cities and a reemergence of studies that focus on the direct and indirect material and resource flows in cities. The methodological approaches reviewed may consider cities as either producers or consumers, and all recognize that urban environmental impacts can be local, regional, or global. As well as giving an overview of the methodological debates, we examine the implications of the different approaches for policy and the challenges these approaches face in their application on the field.
In this manual, the consortium wants to share the key lessons we have learnt throughout this three-year project and, by doing so, to contribute to the scaling-up of low carbon city development in emerging economies, especially in China. This manual targets organisations from the scientific and civil society sectors that are involved in international low carbon city projects, especially those with a focus on Chinese cities, as well as local govern-ments that are eager to develop a comprehensive low carbon strategy.
For a long time, water shortages and flooding have been challenges in many parts of China. Meanwhile, the Chinese government announced the change of water management from engineering-oriented approach towards integrated approach in the last decades. However, the announced changes in management approach does not necessarily lead to the wide implementation of institutions, infrastructures and practice. They can be confronted by a strong resistance from the existing management approach. In fact, the development of water resources management is a complex process. Such a complexity raise the following questions: did fundamental changes really take place in the structure of water supply and demand management and flood management in China? If yes, how? In order to answer this question, the author (1) developed conceptual frameworks to enable a detailed and precise analysis of regime development; (2)applied the elaborated conceptual frameworks to explore the development of the water resources management regime in China, at the example of three case studies. These three case studies were: - Flood Management (IFM) took place in the Dongting Lake Area in the middle Yangtze River, - Water allocation in the Yellow River Basin, - The experimentation period of Water Saving Society in China. With the support of the developed framework, the case studies show that fundamental changes, i.e. transitions, have taken place in flood management regime and water supply-demand regime in China, but transitions have not yet completed, due to, namely, the lack of reconfiguration of other regime components and other relevant regimes. In addition, the case studies also depict how the start of transitions were triggered and how informal learning processes influenced regime development. The thesis contributed to sustainability transitions research by developing an operational approach to analyze transitions of water resource management regime and by expanding the empirical basis for transitions research to natural resources management regime in emerging economies.
Creating statistics for China's building energy consumption using an adapted energy balance sheet
(2019)
China's regular energy statistics does not include the building sector, and data on building energy demand is included in other types of energy consumption in the Energy Balance Sheet (EBS). Therefore data on building energy demand is not collected based on statistics, but rather calculated or estimated by various approaches in China. This study aims at developing and testing China's building energy statistics by applying an adapted EBS. The advantage of the adapted EBS is that statistical data is from the regular statistical system and no additional statistical efforts are needed. The research result shows that the adapted EBS can be included in China regular energy statistical system and can be standardized in a transparent way. Testing of the adapted EBS shows that China's building energy demand has shown an annual increase of 7.6% since 2001, and a lower contribution to the total energy demand as compared to the developed world. There is also a close link to lifestyle and living standard while industrial energy demand is mainly driven by economy and decoupling of building energy demand with increasing of building floor area, this is due to a considerable improvement of building energy efficiency. The adapted EBS creates a method for China conducting statistics of building energy consumption at the sector level in a uniform way and serves as the basis for any sound building energy efficiency policy decisions.
In Germany, the number of renewable energy prosumers has increased rapidly since 2000. However, the development of prosumers has faced and will continue to face various economic, social, and technological challenges, which have triggered the emergence of a number of innovative business models (BM). This paper enriches the empirical basis for prosumer-oriented BMs by investigating two BM innovations in Germany (P2P electricity trading and aggregation of small-size prosumers) drawing on business model and socio-technical transition theories. A mix of qualitative data collection methods, including document analysis and semi-structured expert interviews, was applied. We found that while both BMs can potentially address the challenges associated with renewable energy prosumer development in Germany, small-scale prosumers’ participation in both BMs has been limited so far. We identified various internal and external drivers and barriers for scaling up these BMs for prosumer development in Germany. Despite these barriers, both aggregation and centralized P2P targeting prosumers may potentially be also taken up by incumbent market actors such as utilities. Decentralized P2P on the other hand still faces significant internal and external barriers for upscaling. Based on the analysis, the paper provides policy recommendations with respect to the identified drivers and barriers. From a theoretical perspective, our findings provide further evidence to challenge the dichotomous understanding of niche actors and incumbents, the latter of which are often theorized to be resistant to radical innovations.